You can't make too much of what happens his early in training camp, especially when Hue Jackson is giving so many veterans days off.
No no that's great! He already knows what these guys can do, they don't need the work, it helps them stay healthy, and it gives the young, unproven guys more work (and the coaches more info on them).
Interestingly, Seth DeValve was one of those who got a day off. Black Cloud will theorize that they've already given up on him, but really he's aleady in the "proven" category.
Stop it. He was a wide receiver. Aside from the blocking, tight end is a cake-walk for him. He's been a consistent bright spot so far this preseason, and the coaches have seen enough.
They're giving their rookies extra work now, so they can make smarter decisions when they have to kick some to the curb. This is really smart.
John Greco worked today. That's because he's on the bubble due to his age. But he is a proven starter at several positions (he was a starting right tackle before the Browns signed him). Hue knows he'll have to move on from him within 3 years, but they need to weigh his roster spot-saving vesatility against his limitted window and the long-term prospects of the whippersnappers behind him.
Gregg shut Hue down on the goal line, so he can say "In yo face!" behind closed doors this time. Probably, Hue owes him a beer.
Kessler was 11 of 13 with 3 touchdowns. I'm waiting for Mary Kay to write a column on the two incompletions.
Back to veteran days off: While DeValve cooled his heels, Njoku dropped a TD pass from Kizer (the other half of Mary Kay's article). Anyway, you can see why Njoku needs more work, right?
Myles Garrett owned rookie LT Rod Johnson. That's no surprise, and is great for Johnson long-term. Roderick has some mechanical issues and is raw. Garrett is all but a finished product, tailor-made to exploit "waist-benders" and "leaners". The only way Johnson can handle Garrett is to stop doing that stuff.
Talk about a baptism of fire! A crucible...yeah this is excellent.
Parkey outkicked Gonzalez. Why is anybody surprised? Parkey is an excellent kicker! A Pro Bowl kicker! His crappy first game is all you remember? That's why you need ME! I don't know who will win this competition...so I got that goin' for me, and you don't.
I got excited about this guy Jordon Leslie, who I was oblivious to until today. He's a 6'3", sub-4.5 wide receiver from BYU.
He went undrafted in 2015, and signed on with the Vikings, then with the Falcons.
His combine numbers describe an exceptional athlete, but his college stats are unimpressive. I admit I've only seen one scouting report, and about all the negatives I saw were that he was a "body-catcher", a half-assed blocker, and only kicked in the afterburners on deep vertical routes.
Obviously, the Vikings and Falcons kicked him to the curb, so we must temper our enthusiasm even further.
Still, this guy's physical talent (and hands) are exceptional and irrefutable. All his flaws were correctable.
All Black Cloud sees here is a guy nobody wanted to draft, who was cut from two teams.
I see a young guy who may have been immature, lazy, and devoid of ambition. I see a guy who's been in the NFL for two seasons, and can't possibly be the same player he was in college anymore.
I'm not writing this guy off. He's got to know that if this isn't his last chance, it's close to it. His agent is telling him: "If this team cuts you, you're done!"
He stood out today, with a one-handed TD catch he made look easy. Didn't even bother trying to use both hands. Would have fell down that way. I think he has huge hands.
Not sure what to make of Jordon Leslie, but don't write him off.
I've got to give my least favorite pundit, Jason LaCanfora, credit for this article on Gregg Williams, which was deep, replete with identified sources, and remarkably gossip-free!
London Fletcher was a source of note. I've compared Browns linebacker Rodney Alexanderfield to (home boy) Fletcher, who was "too small/short" etc.
London says Williams doesn't care where/if you were drafted, any more than he cares about your numbers or stature. Based on what HE SEES, the best players play, period.
Sounds familiar, right? That's because all NFL coaches say it. Only Gregg Williams means it!
London also said that Williams would either force a player to quit, or to perform at a level he never thought he could.
DeShone PR rep Mary Kay Cabbot breathlessly quotes Kenny Britt, who sees greatness in her favorite quarterback's future.
I've got to take this seriously, because it's a veteran wide receiver saying it...actually a veteran wide receiver who has, throughout his career, rarely had even an average quarterback to work with (except Bradford, between injuries).
What Britt said was encouraging. As a FAN, I want Kizer to be great. But I know that MKC did not ask Britt about Kessler (or Osweiler, for that matter). What would he have said about them?
We'll never know, because Mary Kay was not objective enough to ask those questions. For that matter, if she had asked them, she could have ignored the answers if they didn't fit her narrative.
If you're paying attention, you have just read the intro to "Propaganda 101".
Kessler is still the best quarterback here, and Kizer is behind Osweiler. I hope Britt is right about Kizer's potential, but I'm getting sick of the Kessler-dissing here.
70% so far. 11 for 13 most recently.
Mary Kay, give him a fkng break!!!
Monday, July 31, 2017
Sunday, July 30, 2017
Haslam, Patience, Safeties, Nacua and the Browns
As I've told you repeatedly, Hair-Trigger Haslam (@all rights preserved) isn't poised to fire Hue Jackson or Sashi Brown if the Browns don't have a winning record in 2017.
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Like most objective analysts (who do their homework), the horse's mouth isn't sure what will happen in 2017, but expects the team to be very good in 2018 or 2019 DO YOU UNDERSTAND?
Jimmy is a football fan but not a "football guy". Still, contrary to popular misconception, he is niether mentally impaired nor emotionally stunted.
It's been awhile, so I can redundate: Hue Jackson was Haslam's first choice, and not his fourth or sixth option. This matters. He was sold on and committed to Jackson when he hired him.
Hue was the first guy he hired with actual Head Coaching experience (and I need to point out that he did a great job with a pretty messed up Raiders team. Nobody could figure out why he was fired). Hue was arguably the hottest Head Coach prospect at the time Jimmy hired him.
Chud and Pettine were speculative. Hue Jackson was a blue chip, long-term investment. Can't you see the difference?
Another difference from prior years:
Haslam structured the new front office organization. He'd consulted with Bill Parcells, Robert Kraft, the Rooneys and others, of course, but Jimmy himself was fully qualified to set this up.
Immediately, the "football guy" analysts started sniping, and poor Mary Kay got sucked into it.
Understand this:
1: Sashi Brown has bottom line control of the roster. He's not a "football guy", so this was called insane.
No, not at all! Jimmy gave this negotiator this authority because he is not insecure, listens to people, and does not seek power for power's sake. Jimmy KNEW that Brown knows what he doesn't know, and would listen and defer to Hue and his other "football people".
This was a big reason why Hue Jackson signed on! The only time Sashi Brown will override or veto these guys is when the "football guys" eyes get bigger than the Haslam's wallet. Hand-in-hand with Paul DePodesta, Sashi is the enhusiasm-curber.
In my last post, I rolled my eyes over the Steelers offering Ebineezer Belle starting quarterback money (which he turned down wtf :@!×+🖕#!?!) Well, Sashi (and Paul) will never screw up like that.
It turns out, Hue Jackson didn't flunk math himself (like some "football people" did), so (apparently) there haven't been any real conflicts, outside of some bizarre LaCanfora Soap scripts.
2: Hue doesn't report to Sashi Brown. He reports to Haslam, too.
A lot of "football" people call this insane. Why? Apparently, the "football people" are "Game of Thrones" addicts. Somebody has to be pushing somebody else around! Somebody must force somebody else to submit (or get fired trying)!
If you're paying attention, you must see that this regime is different than those it succeeded. If you can't see this, ask Jimmy Haslam.
Running the ball is critical to this offense, and in the first day of full contact (yes it matters now), the offense trampled the defense, all the way down the depth chart.
Hue said it didn't mean anything, but he was lying. Hue regards Gregg Williams as his opposite (and equal) number, and doesn't want to rub his nose in it...because he is an adult.
But this is excellent news. This will be Hue vs Gregg all the way to preseason, and Hue, behind closed doors, said "In yo face!" to Gregg.
Now, Gregg will have to find ways to stop Hue's running game, and no doubt Hue will be passing in the next practice.
I'm not speculating here. I'm informing you that this is what's going on between the Williams defense and the Jackson offense.
I'm tempted to predict these two getting into "verbal confrontations" with eachother and stuff. LaCanfora will call it a "civil war".
The most important thing here is that Hue vs Gregg is like Garrett vs Thomas.
I guarantee you, Hue and Gregg will have a lot of fun trying to outsmart eachother through preseason and beyond.
Right now, Hue has the edge. Most of his players are veterans, working in the same (basic) system they did last season.
Gregg's system is new, and he has to experiment to find his free safety, strong safety, hybrid player, right DT (Ok look gramps Bryant is almost certainly a GMF), AND Garrett, Peppers, and both drafted defensive tackles are rookies too.
Behind closed doors, I expect Hue to be teasing Gregg, and Gregg saying "just stay tuned" a lot, and the results being an above average offense and defense in 2017.
Now, Joe Flacco has back issues. I hate that! Now when the Browns sweep the Ravens, everybody will blame it on that! Dammit.
Peter Smith wrote a great safety preview. He gives undrafted rookie Rodney Nacuafield a chance to start in center field, and thinks they'll keep five safeties.
He sees Peppers over the slot a lot vs big receivers, because he can protect the edge and blitze from there, as well as (Pete and I think) actually cover.
Peter gives Derrick Kindred at least the same chance as Nacua to start at free, citing Gregg Williams' history of using strong safety types there, and Kindred's range. I stand corrected, with one asterisk:
Did Williams have a true free safety on those rosters? (Not rhetorical. I don't know).
He sees Rodney Campbellfield as a strong safety, and feels he has an edge over former first round pick Pryor to make the roster. Campbell is the better athlete.
In my own opinion, Nacua will win the free safety job. He's had a ton of college starts at the same position in a very similar system.
Peter refers to the "speed of the game" in the pros as his main obstacle, but I think he's overestimating it. Once you get toasted a few times in practice, you figure it out quickly.
For a free safety, the speed issue is more a matter of decisiveness than anything else. A center fielder gets burned when he takes the wrong bait, or hesitates to move toward the targetted receiver. It's more about the quarterback's arm and quick release than it is about the receiver's speed.
Kindred will play a lot, regardless of how this shakes out. He's a really good player, and as Peter says, he'll probably work at both free and strong. Gregg Williams might also mix in some cover two.
The Browns receivers need to stop dropping passes. The quarterbacks all did their jobs, but the receivers screwed them. I wonder if Mary Kay will start saying Kizer throws a more "catchable ball" than Kessler next.
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Like most objective analysts (who do their homework), the horse's mouth isn't sure what will happen in 2017, but expects the team to be very good in 2018 or 2019 DO YOU UNDERSTAND?
Jimmy is a football fan but not a "football guy". Still, contrary to popular misconception, he is niether mentally impaired nor emotionally stunted.
It's been awhile, so I can redundate: Hue Jackson was Haslam's first choice, and not his fourth or sixth option. This matters. He was sold on and committed to Jackson when he hired him.
Hue was the first guy he hired with actual Head Coaching experience (and I need to point out that he did a great job with a pretty messed up Raiders team. Nobody could figure out why he was fired). Hue was arguably the hottest Head Coach prospect at the time Jimmy hired him.
Chud and Pettine were speculative. Hue Jackson was a blue chip, long-term investment. Can't you see the difference?
Another difference from prior years:
Haslam structured the new front office organization. He'd consulted with Bill Parcells, Robert Kraft, the Rooneys and others, of course, but Jimmy himself was fully qualified to set this up.
Immediately, the "football guy" analysts started sniping, and poor Mary Kay got sucked into it.
Understand this:
1: Sashi Brown has bottom line control of the roster. He's not a "football guy", so this was called insane.
No, not at all! Jimmy gave this negotiator this authority because he is not insecure, listens to people, and does not seek power for power's sake. Jimmy KNEW that Brown knows what he doesn't know, and would listen and defer to Hue and his other "football people".
This was a big reason why Hue Jackson signed on! The only time Sashi Brown will override or veto these guys is when the "football guys" eyes get bigger than the Haslam's wallet. Hand-in-hand with Paul DePodesta, Sashi is the enhusiasm-curber.
In my last post, I rolled my eyes over the Steelers offering Ebineezer Belle starting quarterback money (which he turned down wtf :@!×+🖕#!?!) Well, Sashi (and Paul) will never screw up like that.
It turns out, Hue Jackson didn't flunk math himself (like some "football people" did), so (apparently) there haven't been any real conflicts, outside of some bizarre LaCanfora Soap scripts.
2: Hue doesn't report to Sashi Brown. He reports to Haslam, too.
A lot of "football" people call this insane. Why? Apparently, the "football people" are "Game of Thrones" addicts. Somebody has to be pushing somebody else around! Somebody must force somebody else to submit (or get fired trying)!
If you're paying attention, you must see that this regime is different than those it succeeded. If you can't see this, ask Jimmy Haslam.
Running the ball is critical to this offense, and in the first day of full contact (yes it matters now), the offense trampled the defense, all the way down the depth chart.
Hue said it didn't mean anything, but he was lying. Hue regards Gregg Williams as his opposite (and equal) number, and doesn't want to rub his nose in it...because he is an adult.
But this is excellent news. This will be Hue vs Gregg all the way to preseason, and Hue, behind closed doors, said "In yo face!" to Gregg.
Now, Gregg will have to find ways to stop Hue's running game, and no doubt Hue will be passing in the next practice.
I'm not speculating here. I'm informing you that this is what's going on between the Williams defense and the Jackson offense.
I'm tempted to predict these two getting into "verbal confrontations" with eachother and stuff. LaCanfora will call it a "civil war".
The most important thing here is that Hue vs Gregg is like Garrett vs Thomas.
I guarantee you, Hue and Gregg will have a lot of fun trying to outsmart eachother through preseason and beyond.
Right now, Hue has the edge. Most of his players are veterans, working in the same (basic) system they did last season.
Gregg's system is new, and he has to experiment to find his free safety, strong safety, hybrid player, right DT (Ok look gramps Bryant is almost certainly a GMF), AND Garrett, Peppers, and both drafted defensive tackles are rookies too.
Behind closed doors, I expect Hue to be teasing Gregg, and Gregg saying "just stay tuned" a lot, and the results being an above average offense and defense in 2017.
Now, Joe Flacco has back issues. I hate that! Now when the Browns sweep the Ravens, everybody will blame it on that! Dammit.
Peter Smith wrote a great safety preview. He gives undrafted rookie Rodney Nacuafield a chance to start in center field, and thinks they'll keep five safeties.
He sees Peppers over the slot a lot vs big receivers, because he can protect the edge and blitze from there, as well as (Pete and I think) actually cover.
Peter gives Derrick Kindred at least the same chance as Nacua to start at free, citing Gregg Williams' history of using strong safety types there, and Kindred's range. I stand corrected, with one asterisk:
Did Williams have a true free safety on those rosters? (Not rhetorical. I don't know).
He sees Rodney Campbellfield as a strong safety, and feels he has an edge over former first round pick Pryor to make the roster. Campbell is the better athlete.
In my own opinion, Nacua will win the free safety job. He's had a ton of college starts at the same position in a very similar system.
Peter refers to the "speed of the game" in the pros as his main obstacle, but I think he's overestimating it. Once you get toasted a few times in practice, you figure it out quickly.
For a free safety, the speed issue is more a matter of decisiveness than anything else. A center fielder gets burned when he takes the wrong bait, or hesitates to move toward the targetted receiver. It's more about the quarterback's arm and quick release than it is about the receiver's speed.
Kindred will play a lot, regardless of how this shakes out. He's a really good player, and as Peter says, he'll probably work at both free and strong. Gregg Williams might also mix in some cover two.
The Browns receivers need to stop dropping passes. The quarterbacks all did their jobs, but the receivers screwed them. I wonder if Mary Kay will start saying Kizer throws a more "catchable ball" than Kessler next.
Saturday, July 29, 2017
Rebuilding 101 and Remedial Experience for Browns Pundits
It's depressing to read that the Browns need to trade for linebackers and wide receivers.
While there are concerns about Corey Coleman's durability, I personally consider Ricardo Louis's interment, along with the other second year players (mass grave, ya no?) as premature.
As you see in my last post, with Duke Johnson the top contender for slot receiver, Crowell a capable slot guy himself, and the two wide receiver-like tight ends, there won't even be room for the wide receivers who are already here!
I didn't even mention Peppers or Gordon. This crap is getting so deep I need a snorkel. Hell, this guy wants to trade for a Ricardo Louis CLONE!
It's like Kessler Derangement Syndrome (KDS) except it fixates on wide receivers!
And linebackers? My God are you blind? What do you people have against grooming young players in the second year of a rebuild?
Give these young players a chance! The Steelers and Patriots do this. They fill out their rosters with home-grown talent...yes, they let them play! Honest! And you know what else? They get better! No it's true!
But wait! There's more! Do you know how players become experienced veterans? By p l a y i n g. Can you say that? In fact, believe it or not, all experienced veterans were once inexperienced! No kidding!
Are you beginning to start to comprehend how this works yet?
Speaking of the Steelers, Laveon Belle is just a dick. He was offered something like 15 mil/year in an age where the top paid running back makes around 8. I hope the Browns defense pounds that greedy bastard to paste.
I don't care how good a player is, I don't want dirtbags like this anywhere near my locker room.
Sadly, Isaiah Crowell was probably waiting to see what Belle got paid so he could extort more money. I guess Belle did the Steelers and Browns both a favor by turning that rediculously inflated offer down. What is that 12% of the cap!?
The massive offer, however, gives me hope that the Steelers front office is getting dumber! We can trust Sashi not to offer Crow ten mil/year, anyway. He overpaid a couple guys, because a 1-15 team has to, but he'll never get that rediculous.
I never root for a player to get injured, but Ebineezer Belle is making that difficult.
The Browns signed RB Brandon Wilds and released George Atkinson III. I can't figure out what the problem was with George, but obviously there was one.
Wilds looks statisticly unimpressive, but he is a hard one-cut runner with pretty good combine numbers. Atkinson was exceptionally fast, but Wilds has decent speed, and possibly more explosion. He may also be a better pass-blocker.
I wish both guys luck.
While there are concerns about Corey Coleman's durability, I personally consider Ricardo Louis's interment, along with the other second year players (mass grave, ya no?) as premature.
As you see in my last post, with Duke Johnson the top contender for slot receiver, Crowell a capable slot guy himself, and the two wide receiver-like tight ends, there won't even be room for the wide receivers who are already here!
I didn't even mention Peppers or Gordon. This crap is getting so deep I need a snorkel. Hell, this guy wants to trade for a Ricardo Louis CLONE!
It's like Kessler Derangement Syndrome (KDS) except it fixates on wide receivers!
And linebackers? My God are you blind? What do you people have against grooming young players in the second year of a rebuild?
Give these young players a chance! The Steelers and Patriots do this. They fill out their rosters with home-grown talent...yes, they let them play! Honest! And you know what else? They get better! No it's true!
But wait! There's more! Do you know how players become experienced veterans? By p l a y i n g. Can you say that? In fact, believe it or not, all experienced veterans were once inexperienced! No kidding!
Are you beginning to start to comprehend how this works yet?
Speaking of the Steelers, Laveon Belle is just a dick. He was offered something like 15 mil/year in an age where the top paid running back makes around 8. I hope the Browns defense pounds that greedy bastard to paste.
I don't care how good a player is, I don't want dirtbags like this anywhere near my locker room.
Sadly, Isaiah Crowell was probably waiting to see what Belle got paid so he could extort more money. I guess Belle did the Steelers and Browns both a favor by turning that rediculously inflated offer down. What is that 12% of the cap!?
The massive offer, however, gives me hope that the Steelers front office is getting dumber! We can trust Sashi not to offer Crow ten mil/year, anyway. He overpaid a couple guys, because a 1-15 team has to, but he'll never get that rediculous.
I never root for a player to get injured, but Ebineezer Belle is making that difficult.
The Browns signed RB Brandon Wilds and released George Atkinson III. I can't figure out what the problem was with George, but obviously there was one.
Wilds looks statisticly unimpressive, but he is a hard one-cut runner with pretty good combine numbers. Atkinson was exceptionally fast, but Wilds has decent speed, and possibly more explosion. He may also be a better pass-blocker.
I wish both guys luck.
Thursday, July 27, 2017
More Media Corrections and the Cleveland Browns
Kizer Kolaid drinker Mary Kay Cabbot is starting to embarrass herself with her Deshone-colored glasses.
Hue Jackson said that all the quarerbacks would get some first team reps, and that it doesn't mean anything at this point.
One writer's unofficial QB stats had Kessler completing 5 of 6, Kizer 4 of 7. The longest play was Kessler to Britt. The ball only went 35-40 yards in the air though, so...
The coaches are paying extra attention to Kizer, because Kizer is making more mistakes. They didn't pay as much attention to Kessler last season because he started four seasons in college, and didn't make mistakes.
Kizer has the size, arm, athleticism and intelligence. Kessler is more accurate, and a veteran. He started out way ahead of Kizer developmentally, and now he has pro experience in this system under his belt.
And one more time: They're in shells! Nobody is pressuring these guys yet! Of COURSE Kizer looks good! But here's a tip: Hue Jackson will take 5 for 6 over 4 for 7 all day long.
Unneccessary disclaimer: Kizer's upside is stratospheric, and I'm optimistic about his f u t u r e, but that's not YET, or certain. Anyway, Mary Kay, he already has an agent, ok?
I'm not too worried about Britt burning Haden deep. Haden was probably one-on-one with him, and well...look which quarterback threw it. You can't prevent a perfect pass from being caught.
Bill Barnwell (ESPN) just had to join the party. He rates the Browns offensive skill players 30th (behind the Ravens).
Crowell, Duke Johnson, and DeValve aren't even mentioned. This isn't worth further thought.
The prospect of Duke Johnson being the slot receiver (very likely) brought me back to the two-back.
The Browns can run both 22 and 12 sets (both with two tight ends).
The 22 would feature only one true wide receiver, but where the two tight ends are DeValve and Njoku, it's really kind of a 3-wide. Duke lining up in the slot or wide could make it a 4-wide.
Regular readers have heard this before. It's wildly unpredictable. Remember Hue Jackson (inexplicably) shifting tackles out wide, then back inside and stuff?
Imagine what he'll do with this crew! With a healthy Coleman, a pumped up DeValve, and a shiny new Njoku! Coleman can play running back, you know. He's kind of a reverse Duke.
Sounds like Hue can't wait to put Peppers in there somewhere, too.
What do you call that? The UFO offense? What if Gordon comes back?
Man, this is going to be a fun season!
One guy said they might need to release Osweiler if he doesn't start, because the other players would resent his massively inflated salary.
Ok look, these guys can spell their own names right and everything. The majority have bachelor's degrees. What they'd resent would be releasing a viable player for no rational reason.
Players might think it's obcene that the Texans overpaid the guy, but understand the business side of football better than we do. Would they blame Osweiler for not turning down the money? That article was insulting.
Hue Jackson said that all the quarerbacks would get some first team reps, and that it doesn't mean anything at this point.
One writer's unofficial QB stats had Kessler completing 5 of 6, Kizer 4 of 7. The longest play was Kessler to Britt. The ball only went 35-40 yards in the air though, so...
The coaches are paying extra attention to Kizer, because Kizer is making more mistakes. They didn't pay as much attention to Kessler last season because he started four seasons in college, and didn't make mistakes.
Kizer has the size, arm, athleticism and intelligence. Kessler is more accurate, and a veteran. He started out way ahead of Kizer developmentally, and now he has pro experience in this system under his belt.
And one more time: They're in shells! Nobody is pressuring these guys yet! Of COURSE Kizer looks good! But here's a tip: Hue Jackson will take 5 for 6 over 4 for 7 all day long.
Unneccessary disclaimer: Kizer's upside is stratospheric, and I'm optimistic about his f u t u r e, but that's not YET, or certain. Anyway, Mary Kay, he already has an agent, ok?
I'm not too worried about Britt burning Haden deep. Haden was probably one-on-one with him, and well...look which quarterback threw it. You can't prevent a perfect pass from being caught.
Bill Barnwell (ESPN) just had to join the party. He rates the Browns offensive skill players 30th (behind the Ravens).
Crowell, Duke Johnson, and DeValve aren't even mentioned. This isn't worth further thought.
The prospect of Duke Johnson being the slot receiver (very likely) brought me back to the two-back.
The Browns can run both 22 and 12 sets (both with two tight ends).
The 22 would feature only one true wide receiver, but where the two tight ends are DeValve and Njoku, it's really kind of a 3-wide. Duke lining up in the slot or wide could make it a 4-wide.
Regular readers have heard this before. It's wildly unpredictable. Remember Hue Jackson (inexplicably) shifting tackles out wide, then back inside and stuff?
Imagine what he'll do with this crew! With a healthy Coleman, a pumped up DeValve, and a shiny new Njoku! Coleman can play running back, you know. He's kind of a reverse Duke.
Sounds like Hue can't wait to put Peppers in there somewhere, too.
What do you call that? The UFO offense? What if Gordon comes back?
Man, this is going to be a fun season!
One guy said they might need to release Osweiler if he doesn't start, because the other players would resent his massively inflated salary.
Ok look, these guys can spell their own names right and everything. The majority have bachelor's degrees. What they'd resent would be releasing a viable player for no rational reason.
Players might think it's obcene that the Texans overpaid the guy, but understand the business side of football better than we do. Would they blame Osweiler for not turning down the money? That article was insulting.
Wednesday, July 26, 2017
Browns Coverage Corrections
Tank Carder did look very good in his limited action at linebacker in 2016, especially against the run. I like him, a lot.
But penciling him in as the number one middle lnebacker is a shallow assumption.
1: Jamie Collins can do that job. If he does, Joe Schobert, or Alexander, or Ogunbjobi (sp?) are all probably better prospects outside than Carder.
2: The aformentioned three will all compete with Carder in the middle, as well.
I love underdogs, and Carder is a classic. But the other three guys are underdogs too. I don't know how this will shake out, but I can tell you that 3 linebackers here will be a run defense, which gives Carder his best chance.
Just give the other guys a shot. All three are very good. I know Cleveland is still kind of a Union shop, but seniority carries no weight in war or pro sports. Dare I say let the best man win?
Terry Pluto is coming around! He wonders why tf Kizer should start right away at quarterback! You can read the article if you want, but if you read this blog you won't find much new.
Well Terry needs to quit describing Kessler's arm as "questionable", and shoving Osweiler ahead of him in line. Once upon a time if you could throw a 15 yard out or a 30-yard dig you had a decent arm. When exactly did Derrick Anderson become the minimum standard in Cleveland?
Joel W Cade was pretty much on the money in predicting the futures of assorted Browns defensive tackles. Joel colors Jamie Meder as the odd man out.
He may be right, but he may be operating on a false premise here: Caleb Brantley and Larry Ogunjobi are NOT as good at one technique as they are at three. They can be engulfed and overpowered.
Jamie Meder is the second-best "one technique" on this roster.
Mary Kay Cabbot offered her ten takes on the Browns. They were pretty good.
Start Kizer if he can handle it. I agree. Mary cites Wentz and Carr, who started as rookies.
Wentz played a pro system in college. Carr kind of did too, and had significantly more experience. Both had great final seasons. She is right to say Kizer should start if he's ready. She's wrong to assume he will be ready.
Duke Johnson in the slot? Absolutely! But he should still be part of the running game? Check!
Unfortunately, in Mary Kay's world, either DeValve or Njoku sits on the bench to make room in the slot for Duke.
The Browns won't miss Demario Davis.
Derrick Kindred is NOT the leading free safety. He has a chance, but Gregg Willams needs range and coverage skills at free safety. And free safety is much different than strong safety, which is what Kindred is.
No a lot of people don't get this about this scheme: It's nice to have a free safety who lights people up, but Gregg Williams takes people out of coverage to blitze a lot. His free safety has to EXCEL in COVERAGE first and foremost.
I like Kindred a lot myself, and absolutely don't count him out at free in his second season. But to date, has not demonstrated the range or coverage skills for that unique position.
Let Collins roll. Yep. See previous post.
Keep a leash on Myles Garrett to prevent him from hurting himself again. Amen. She must be one of my readers.
Re-sign Crowell ASAP. Another amen. Hopefully Condon can get it done. He's a low-mileage 24 years old.
Terry please! The Browns don't need another veteran wide receiver! What is it--only veterans can start? Coleman's experience doesn't count? You need a phd to run around and catch a pass now? We're going to run wall-to-wall tight end free five wides? Stop it!
But penciling him in as the number one middle lnebacker is a shallow assumption.
1: Jamie Collins can do that job. If he does, Joe Schobert, or Alexander, or Ogunbjobi (sp?) are all probably better prospects outside than Carder.
2: The aformentioned three will all compete with Carder in the middle, as well.
I love underdogs, and Carder is a classic. But the other three guys are underdogs too. I don't know how this will shake out, but I can tell you that 3 linebackers here will be a run defense, which gives Carder his best chance.
Just give the other guys a shot. All three are very good. I know Cleveland is still kind of a Union shop, but seniority carries no weight in war or pro sports. Dare I say let the best man win?
Terry Pluto is coming around! He wonders why tf Kizer should start right away at quarterback! You can read the article if you want, but if you read this blog you won't find much new.
Well Terry needs to quit describing Kessler's arm as "questionable", and shoving Osweiler ahead of him in line. Once upon a time if you could throw a 15 yard out or a 30-yard dig you had a decent arm. When exactly did Derrick Anderson become the minimum standard in Cleveland?
Joel W Cade was pretty much on the money in predicting the futures of assorted Browns defensive tackles. Joel colors Jamie Meder as the odd man out.
He may be right, but he may be operating on a false premise here: Caleb Brantley and Larry Ogunjobi are NOT as good at one technique as they are at three. They can be engulfed and overpowered.
Jamie Meder is the second-best "one technique" on this roster.
Mary Kay Cabbot offered her ten takes on the Browns. They were pretty good.
Start Kizer if he can handle it. I agree. Mary cites Wentz and Carr, who started as rookies.
Wentz played a pro system in college. Carr kind of did too, and had significantly more experience. Both had great final seasons. She is right to say Kizer should start if he's ready. She's wrong to assume he will be ready.
Duke Johnson in the slot? Absolutely! But he should still be part of the running game? Check!
Unfortunately, in Mary Kay's world, either DeValve or Njoku sits on the bench to make room in the slot for Duke.
The Browns won't miss Demario Davis.
Derrick Kindred is NOT the leading free safety. He has a chance, but Gregg Willams needs range and coverage skills at free safety. And free safety is much different than strong safety, which is what Kindred is.
No a lot of people don't get this about this scheme: It's nice to have a free safety who lights people up, but Gregg Williams takes people out of coverage to blitze a lot. His free safety has to EXCEL in COVERAGE first and foremost.
I like Kindred a lot myself, and absolutely don't count him out at free in his second season. But to date, has not demonstrated the range or coverage skills for that unique position.
Let Collins roll. Yep. See previous post.
Keep a leash on Myles Garrett to prevent him from hurting himself again. Amen. She must be one of my readers.
Re-sign Crowell ASAP. Another amen. Hopefully Condon can get it done. He's a low-mileage 24 years old.
Terry please! The Browns don't need another veteran wide receiver! What is it--only veterans can start? Coleman's experience doesn't count? You need a phd to run around and catch a pass now? We're going to run wall-to-wall tight end free five wides? Stop it!
Saturday, July 22, 2017
Bengals Analysis Correction: Stoopidstoopidstoopid!
I never delete posts, because it seems deceptive to me. When I screw up, I don't try to hide it. Instead, I correct it, in public.
I screwed up on the Cincinnati Bengals. I overestimated the results of their free agent losses on the offensive line, and dissed their (actually excellent) wide receiver depth.
The Bengals offensive line can't be as good as it was in 2016, but still might be pretty good, and that could be the weakest part of the whole team.
While the Browns should beat the perennially-overrated Ravens, the Bengals actually have a shot vs the Steelers. How the new offensive line performs will have a lot to do with this.
According to one ex-Patriot player, Jimmy Garropolo could have put the 2017 Browns in the playoffs, and he could be correct.
This player has clearly taken a look at this roster, and thinks an elite quarterback could get them to the post-season a year ahead of schedule.
That says a lot about how highly this guy regards Jimmy G, but also how much talent he sees on the Browns roster here in the real world.
It's funny that the player is never identified in the article. I don't think the writer invented him. I think the player was afraid people would make fun of him for saying anything positive about the Browns.
I screwed up on the Cincinnati Bengals. I overestimated the results of their free agent losses on the offensive line, and dissed their (actually excellent) wide receiver depth.
The Bengals offensive line can't be as good as it was in 2016, but still might be pretty good, and that could be the weakest part of the whole team.
While the Browns should beat the perennially-overrated Ravens, the Bengals actually have a shot vs the Steelers. How the new offensive line performs will have a lot to do with this.
According to one ex-Patriot player, Jimmy Garropolo could have put the 2017 Browns in the playoffs, and he could be correct.
This player has clearly taken a look at this roster, and thinks an elite quarterback could get them to the post-season a year ahead of schedule.
That says a lot about how highly this guy regards Jimmy G, but also how much talent he sees on the Browns roster here in the real world.
It's funny that the player is never identified in the article. I don't think the writer invented him. I think the player was afraid people would make fun of him for saying anything positive about the Browns.
Wednesday, July 19, 2017
Cleveland Browns Prediction Corrections
PFF giveth, and PFF taketh away.
I get why they rank the Browns secondary 27th:
Joe Haden played badly last season, and their formulae must use those numbers.
They're defaulting Pryor to strong safety, and he was actually very bad in coverage last season (he's an intimidating hitter and run-stopper).
I don't even know who they're guessing will be the free safety, but it's not Jason McCourty or Kai Nacua, and none of the others project well to that particular position.
But this is a "garbage in, garbage out" situation.
Upon further reflection, Calvin Pryor actually looks like he may be the hybrid DB/LB, while Peppers plays strong. These coaches feel Peppers can cover.
Peppers wasn't great in coverage in college, but then he spent most of his senior season at linebacker.
Haden had both sides of his groin messed up and surgicly repaired at the end of 2016. He's still young, and there's no logical reason to expect him not to return to form.
Jason McCourty is the last resort free safety, which literally means that free safety will be in good hands, no matter what.
The 2016 Browns were also embarrassed in coverage as the result of a lack of pressure on opposing quarterbacks. When a quarterback has over three (let alone five) seconds to throw, don't look at the secondary.
We don't know where Peppers, Pryor, and McCourty will play yet, so it's too complicated to guess where the 2017 secondary will ultimately rank. But it will be somewhere above 27th.
USA Today ranks the front seven 23rd and the linebackers 19th. Why bother commenting on that?
When PFF or Numberfire makes a mistake, at least it's usually a "data entry" issue. With USA Today, it's data in, garbage out.
They should stick to inventing Trump conspiracies. Bet they got the Browns offensive line ranked 17th.
Peter Smith wrote up the Browns tight ends, which USA Today might rank 21st or something...hey think Joe Thomas is in their top ten tackles?
Sorry. Anyway it's always nice to hear from Peter. His article speaks for itself, and as he often does, he educated me around the edges.
But first, I have some minor corrections to make: Seth DeValve does lack the height to be a conventional in-line tight end, but Pete overstates that.
He could do it against a lot of 3-4 defenses, and a few 4-3 defensive ends. We're talking about maybe 1.5 inches here--no need to overthink it.
Pete again refers to "Hue Jackson's power blocking scheme", and I'm not sure where he and everybody else gets that. Hue Jackson's blocking scheme is the whateverworksbest scheme.
Like most teams, the Browns will no doubt run a mix of zone and power, and I have personally advised Hue to run more zone. He hasn't got back to me yet.
Anyway, Peter does understand the schemes, because he discussed DeValve and Njoku making zone-type blocks, as well as lining up as Y's to set up trap blocks (I should have realized that stoopid-stoopid-stoopid).
While (in my own opinion) both can block in-line (at least sometimes), DeValve is verticly-challenged, and Njoku isn't very big or strong at this point. Niether is ever likely to be an elite in-line blocker, but both should excel blocking in space (including traps).
Randall Telfer is the real in-line blocker here. Peter hopes he can develop into at least a solid receiver as well. I think he's not giving the guy enough credit. He was given few opportunities in 2016, but he can catch the ball and move the chains.
Peter thinks like me: If a tight end can't catch, just stop screwing around and put a spare center or tackle there instead.
Peter gives UFA Brad McNamara a better shot than the returning JP Holtz.
For now, I'll take Pete's word for Holtz being a "space" player with little in-line potential, and accept his logic: If that's true, McNamara has the edge over him.
I've ignored this guy so far, but I can always count on Peter Smith to rub my nose in these guys.
McNamara has great height and reach, and actually did a lot of blocking in a run-oriented college offense. Pete says he needs to get stronger. He's a good wall-off blocker, but can't push people around yet.
He's ahead of where the embryonic Telfer was at the same point as a receiver. He's not like DeValve or Njoku, but he knows how to exploit his size and reach, and has good hands.
Peter must have read my Blog, since he expects the Browns to carry four active tight ends. He also expects a ton of two tight end offenses.
It's true! Peter Smith does not expect Seth DeValve to collect splinters! He's just as crazy as me!!!
Going a little deeper (Peter didn't have all day), a smart Head Coach prefers real tight ends over mislabelled wide receivers.
You don't kick a Winslow out of bed for eating crackers, but you'd prefer a Gronk instead. You want that guy to be able to block large people when not running patterns. You want a REAL tight end.
Then, if you decide you want a two-tight end base offense, you keep two backups, so you don't have to flush a bunch of plays out of your playbook the first time two of them get dinged.
Peter Smith was blunt, as usual. Njoku needs a lot of work on his patterns, and isn't as strong as he should be. DeValve is short. But he was objective.
Objective is fair.
I don't care about Armonty Bryant or Johnny Manswell. If you do, see a shrink. Or a gossip columnist.
It's tough to predict how many cornerbacks and safeties Gregg Williams will keep on the roster.
As with the linebackers, these guys are important on special teams, so there will be a surplus.
I am warming up to Channing Stribling, a 6'2" beanpole cornerback who excels in man coverage. Another Sashi Brown UFA.
You can't coach height, and this guy is a ballhawk, too. And this brain crust looks down the road a piece: After a couple years with Hans and Frans, this guy might mutate into an exceptional coverage safety.
That's just a potential side-road; another long-term option-window. It's much more likely that Stribling remains at cornerback. Man coverage skills are at a premium there, and once he's pumped up a bit, he could match up with the skyscrapers.
Do you see why I sound like a cheerleader? USA Today ranks Myles Garrett, Jamie Collins, Danny Shelton, Kirksey, Ogbah and company 23rd and I'm not supposed to go nuts?
Show me a positive article on the Browns that's that idiotic. There are none! Even with MKC and lately even Pluto, Cody Kessler, Atkinson, Nassib, Louis, Gordon etc get dissed! Am I supposed to just let that go?
And (excluding the columnists I just mentioned, Pete Smith and several others) what tf does ANYTHING prior to 2016 have to do with this front office, or these coaches, or the players they have signed and drafted?
Every reference to "all those quarterbacks" or analysis of a draft Ray Farmer had is like nails on a chalkboard to me. Who cares? What kind of idiot are you to think it has anything to do with this regime?
And it's all negative! The boobs at USA Today call a front seven featuring three first, a second, and two third round picks among the projected starters twenty third? Under Gregg Williams?
Jesus they somehow pretzelize Gregg Williams' high standards into a negative! Jamie Collins and Kirksey starting from scratch? Myles Garrett...well how tf is he supposed to screw up?
I read their fkng comments--they're irrational. I can't stand this crap!
Those dumbasses just checked the stats from last season, bumped stuff up ten percent, and filled up some space with fuzzy words to sorta justify it!
It's bullcrap! I was a real intelligence analyst--nobody gets how this dumbassitude ohmmm...ohmmm...
Anyway at least USA readers will lose some money on bets and won't DIE because of this article, and if they buy what USA Today is selling, that's natural selection, so I don't mind that either ohmmm....ohmmm...
Oh god. They are allowed to vote. We're doomed.
Sorry. Negativity is not objectivity. Believe it or not, most people don't get that. Patriots fans are pretty objective, because they're on cloud nine looking down at the rest of us. They feel benevolent, compassionate, and indulgent.
A lot of Browns fans, and Jets fans, and Niners fans think that admitting "we suck" is being objective. They think pissing on any spark of optimism for the future is objective.
I'm glad to say that the majority of Browns fans aren't like Black Cloud, and feel optimistic, because (objectively) they should. I am no longer ashamed of being from Cleveland. I now know that intelligent life exists in Cleveland.
It's objective to say that at this time, the Browns have no proven franchise quarterback. It's objective to doubt each of the contenders, for various good reasons.
It's objective to be a little nervous about the right tackle (but not much). It's objective to...ok I'm sorry all this hand-wringing over the wide receivers is irrational (I won't redundate why yet again here).
You can wonder about who will play free safety. You can wonder if Joe Haden is sliding. You can wonder if C Coleman or Tretter can stay healthy for once. All that is objective.
Expecting rookie players to screw up, Kessler not to go as deep as Kizer, etc is objective.
Ranking this front seven 23rd, saying Kessler can't throw deep, decrying the depth at wide receiver, predicting fewer than six wins, predicting that Jabrill Peppers won't even start, coloring Joe Haden washed up, calling Bitonio/DeValve "injury-prone", and predicting a defensive set-back due to a scheme change from Horton to Williams etc are all negative, pessimistic, and irrational.
Predicting that the Steelers will take the Division is rational. Predicting the 2017 Browns to finish behind the Bengals and Ravens is irrational.
I'm coming out of the closet here:
I hereby predict that the 2017 Browns will sweep the Bengals and at least split with the Ratbirds. And also that niether the Ratbirds or Ben Gals will win more than nine games in 2017.
I reserve the right to adjust these predictions as I get more data from week to week (usually on mondays).
Talent says the Browns finish second. Inexperience, referees, and screwups might drag them down to third in the Division, but the basement?
That's insane.
I don't care how many of you are making fun of me. You are all still just as wrong. Baaah! Baah!
I get why they rank the Browns secondary 27th:
Joe Haden played badly last season, and their formulae must use those numbers.
They're defaulting Pryor to strong safety, and he was actually very bad in coverage last season (he's an intimidating hitter and run-stopper).
I don't even know who they're guessing will be the free safety, but it's not Jason McCourty or Kai Nacua, and none of the others project well to that particular position.
But this is a "garbage in, garbage out" situation.
Upon further reflection, Calvin Pryor actually looks like he may be the hybrid DB/LB, while Peppers plays strong. These coaches feel Peppers can cover.
Peppers wasn't great in coverage in college, but then he spent most of his senior season at linebacker.
Haden had both sides of his groin messed up and surgicly repaired at the end of 2016. He's still young, and there's no logical reason to expect him not to return to form.
Jason McCourty is the last resort free safety, which literally means that free safety will be in good hands, no matter what.
The 2016 Browns were also embarrassed in coverage as the result of a lack of pressure on opposing quarterbacks. When a quarterback has over three (let alone five) seconds to throw, don't look at the secondary.
We don't know where Peppers, Pryor, and McCourty will play yet, so it's too complicated to guess where the 2017 secondary will ultimately rank. But it will be somewhere above 27th.
USA Today ranks the front seven 23rd and the linebackers 19th. Why bother commenting on that?
When PFF or Numberfire makes a mistake, at least it's usually a "data entry" issue. With USA Today, it's data in, garbage out.
They should stick to inventing Trump conspiracies. Bet they got the Browns offensive line ranked 17th.
Peter Smith wrote up the Browns tight ends, which USA Today might rank 21st or something...hey think Joe Thomas is in their top ten tackles?
Sorry. Anyway it's always nice to hear from Peter. His article speaks for itself, and as he often does, he educated me around the edges.
But first, I have some minor corrections to make: Seth DeValve does lack the height to be a conventional in-line tight end, but Pete overstates that.
He could do it against a lot of 3-4 defenses, and a few 4-3 defensive ends. We're talking about maybe 1.5 inches here--no need to overthink it.
Pete again refers to "Hue Jackson's power blocking scheme", and I'm not sure where he and everybody else gets that. Hue Jackson's blocking scheme is the whateverworksbest scheme.
Like most teams, the Browns will no doubt run a mix of zone and power, and I have personally advised Hue to run more zone. He hasn't got back to me yet.
Anyway, Peter does understand the schemes, because he discussed DeValve and Njoku making zone-type blocks, as well as lining up as Y's to set up trap blocks (I should have realized that stoopid-stoopid-stoopid).
While (in my own opinion) both can block in-line (at least sometimes), DeValve is verticly-challenged, and Njoku isn't very big or strong at this point. Niether is ever likely to be an elite in-line blocker, but both should excel blocking in space (including traps).
Randall Telfer is the real in-line blocker here. Peter hopes he can develop into at least a solid receiver as well. I think he's not giving the guy enough credit. He was given few opportunities in 2016, but he can catch the ball and move the chains.
Peter thinks like me: If a tight end can't catch, just stop screwing around and put a spare center or tackle there instead.
Peter gives UFA Brad McNamara a better shot than the returning JP Holtz.
For now, I'll take Pete's word for Holtz being a "space" player with little in-line potential, and accept his logic: If that's true, McNamara has the edge over him.
I've ignored this guy so far, but I can always count on Peter Smith to rub my nose in these guys.
McNamara has great height and reach, and actually did a lot of blocking in a run-oriented college offense. Pete says he needs to get stronger. He's a good wall-off blocker, but can't push people around yet.
He's ahead of where the embryonic Telfer was at the same point as a receiver. He's not like DeValve or Njoku, but he knows how to exploit his size and reach, and has good hands.
Peter must have read my Blog, since he expects the Browns to carry four active tight ends. He also expects a ton of two tight end offenses.
It's true! Peter Smith does not expect Seth DeValve to collect splinters! He's just as crazy as me!!!
Going a little deeper (Peter didn't have all day), a smart Head Coach prefers real tight ends over mislabelled wide receivers.
You don't kick a Winslow out of bed for eating crackers, but you'd prefer a Gronk instead. You want that guy to be able to block large people when not running patterns. You want a REAL tight end.
Then, if you decide you want a two-tight end base offense, you keep two backups, so you don't have to flush a bunch of plays out of your playbook the first time two of them get dinged.
Peter Smith was blunt, as usual. Njoku needs a lot of work on his patterns, and isn't as strong as he should be. DeValve is short. But he was objective.
Objective is fair.
I don't care about Armonty Bryant or Johnny Manswell. If you do, see a shrink. Or a gossip columnist.
It's tough to predict how many cornerbacks and safeties Gregg Williams will keep on the roster.
As with the linebackers, these guys are important on special teams, so there will be a surplus.
I am warming up to Channing Stribling, a 6'2" beanpole cornerback who excels in man coverage. Another Sashi Brown UFA.
You can't coach height, and this guy is a ballhawk, too. And this brain crust looks down the road a piece: After a couple years with Hans and Frans, this guy might mutate into an exceptional coverage safety.
That's just a potential side-road; another long-term option-window. It's much more likely that Stribling remains at cornerback. Man coverage skills are at a premium there, and once he's pumped up a bit, he could match up with the skyscrapers.
Do you see why I sound like a cheerleader? USA Today ranks Myles Garrett, Jamie Collins, Danny Shelton, Kirksey, Ogbah and company 23rd and I'm not supposed to go nuts?
Show me a positive article on the Browns that's that idiotic. There are none! Even with MKC and lately even Pluto, Cody Kessler, Atkinson, Nassib, Louis, Gordon etc get dissed! Am I supposed to just let that go?
And (excluding the columnists I just mentioned, Pete Smith and several others) what tf does ANYTHING prior to 2016 have to do with this front office, or these coaches, or the players they have signed and drafted?
Every reference to "all those quarterbacks" or analysis of a draft Ray Farmer had is like nails on a chalkboard to me. Who cares? What kind of idiot are you to think it has anything to do with this regime?
And it's all negative! The boobs at USA Today call a front seven featuring three first, a second, and two third round picks among the projected starters twenty third? Under Gregg Williams?
Jesus they somehow pretzelize Gregg Williams' high standards into a negative! Jamie Collins and Kirksey starting from scratch? Myles Garrett...well how tf is he supposed to screw up?
I read their fkng comments--they're irrational. I can't stand this crap!
Those dumbasses just checked the stats from last season, bumped stuff up ten percent, and filled up some space with fuzzy words to sorta justify it!
It's bullcrap! I was a real intelligence analyst--nobody gets how this dumbassitude ohmmm...ohmmm...
Anyway at least USA readers will lose some money on bets and won't DIE because of this article, and if they buy what USA Today is selling, that's natural selection, so I don't mind that either ohmmm....ohmmm...
Oh god. They are allowed to vote. We're doomed.
Sorry. Negativity is not objectivity. Believe it or not, most people don't get that. Patriots fans are pretty objective, because they're on cloud nine looking down at the rest of us. They feel benevolent, compassionate, and indulgent.
A lot of Browns fans, and Jets fans, and Niners fans think that admitting "we suck" is being objective. They think pissing on any spark of optimism for the future is objective.
I'm glad to say that the majority of Browns fans aren't like Black Cloud, and feel optimistic, because (objectively) they should. I am no longer ashamed of being from Cleveland. I now know that intelligent life exists in Cleveland.
It's objective to say that at this time, the Browns have no proven franchise quarterback. It's objective to doubt each of the contenders, for various good reasons.
It's objective to be a little nervous about the right tackle (but not much). It's objective to...ok I'm sorry all this hand-wringing over the wide receivers is irrational (I won't redundate why yet again here).
You can wonder about who will play free safety. You can wonder if Joe Haden is sliding. You can wonder if C Coleman or Tretter can stay healthy for once. All that is objective.
Expecting rookie players to screw up, Kessler not to go as deep as Kizer, etc is objective.
Ranking this front seven 23rd, saying Kessler can't throw deep, decrying the depth at wide receiver, predicting fewer than six wins, predicting that Jabrill Peppers won't even start, coloring Joe Haden washed up, calling Bitonio/DeValve "injury-prone", and predicting a defensive set-back due to a scheme change from Horton to Williams etc are all negative, pessimistic, and irrational.
Predicting that the Steelers will take the Division is rational. Predicting the 2017 Browns to finish behind the Bengals and Ravens is irrational.
I'm coming out of the closet here:
I hereby predict that the 2017 Browns will sweep the Bengals and at least split with the Ratbirds. And also that niether the Ratbirds or Ben Gals will win more than nine games in 2017.
I reserve the right to adjust these predictions as I get more data from week to week (usually on mondays).
Talent says the Browns finish second. Inexperience, referees, and screwups might drag them down to third in the Division, but the basement?
That's insane.
I don't care how many of you are making fun of me. You are all still just as wrong. Baaah! Baah!
Tuesday, July 18, 2017
Browns vs Ravens, Jamie Collins, Freelancing
As I've conceded, the Steelers will probably run away with the AFC North. Because everyone else has been putting the Browns in the basement again, I went a little nuts, and overreacted to that.
Setting the Steelers aside, while the 2017 Browns will obviously have more talent and depth than the Ravens and Bengals, I don't expect the Browns to just steamroll them.
The Ravens did just add Jeremy Maclin and Gramps Watson to their offense, although the venerable tight end isn't exactly a Pitta at this point in his long, long career. (Note Ben Watson is a great american--this aint personal).
I also have to stipulate that the Ravens should have a stifling top five defense, particularly against the pass. They may well have the top safety tandem in the NFL, they've just added OLB JT Watt, who some say is a slightly smaller chip off his brother's block, and another solid defensive lineman.
But nobody gets this: The Browns offense will be different, and modern NFL defenses are not built to stop it. Both teams know that the Browns are going to try to run the ball (mostly with Crowell).
I have a hard time putting myself in opposing defensive coordinators' shoes, trying to decide which personnel grouping makes the most sense.
If you consider DeValve and Njoku as receivers first, then if you see two real wide receivers in the huddle, you almost have to go ahead and trade in a linebacker for a safety, first off.
But now, do you use a Nascar package front six, or play it straight and two-gap? That's not what Suggs or Watt do, and you don't take them off the field (although Gramps Suggs should come off to suck oxygen sometimes).
So, if Watt's not coming, he's not doing what he does best, as he's an edge-player. Blitzing outside vs a run opens up running lane. Coming inside across the tackle's face is more effective, but opens up that side the same way.
Blitzing inside linebackers or safeties through the a-gaps works better vs the run, because if a lineman does block you, he's coming off a big guy, and you still clog things up and force the back to run lateral. Sometimes you get through clean, and blow it up. If a running back picks you up, that's because it's a pass, and you've prevented him from becoming a receiver.
However, it's extra-dangerous to blitze inside against two dangerous tight ends, because one of them is going exactly into the space you just vacated.
You can't intimidate a 250 lb tight end. You can't reach around him, or knock the ball loose. On paper, those Ravens safeties match up with tight ends like these, but in reality, they're outweighed by over 30 lbs and out-reached by over a foot (it's not just height but arm-length and stuff; it's exponential).
Who's covering Britt? Can you really run zone against two tight ends and two wide receivers? (Not rhetorical--I really don't know). You want to man up with these guys? If you hold a safety deep can you even slow Crow down?
Watt can beat a tackle outside, but how far outside does he need to get to set up outside a tight end who's as athletic as he is? Hell, if he lines up way over there, screw the block just holler "Hit me I'm open" and let JT take himself out of your way!
Can you cover two tight ends and two wide receivers in man? Really all four?
That's just the monkey wrench, because the Browns will try to bully the Ravens defense and run behind seven real blockers (maybe eight). Vs probably a nickel, which is nervous about those two tight ends as receivers.
Now, I repeat that the Browns should zone-block, because Crowell thrives off that. He is the ideal one-cut back. Both inside and outside zones would be greatly enhanced by these two tight ends.
Tight ends have the size and speed to get to the edge, and they line up closer to it. They're trained to chip-block anyway; for them there's no learning curve. They execute their chip, and go munchkin-hunting instead of into a pattern.
I respect the Ravens defense, but think the Browns offense will have something for them. I'm not saying the Browns will score 30 points on them or anything.
The Browns might march up and down some, but the Ravens would blow some runs up and put Kessler (yeah Mary Kay Kessler) under the gun and kitchen-sink him and stuff. I'd take 16 points is that too much?
Where the Browns have the Ravens is Browns D vs Ravens O.
While you've been napping, the Browns have piled up Danny Shelton, Jamie Collins, Chistian Kirksey, Myles Garrett, and Jabrill Peppers. Oh yeah and Gregg Williams btw (who is grinning ear-to-ear).
Gregg Williams just can't help blitzing a lot, but will get into opposing backfields via the front four alone, so he can hold seven in coverage when he needs to.
Jeremy Maclin is a for-real threat, but Gregg can afford to keep a deep safety over him. He's the only deep threat, and he's not a tall guy, so the Browns corners aren't overmatched.
I would expect a very low-scoring game, and the referees could well hand it over to the Ravens again. But if they don't, the Browns overall talent should win.
Psychology is part of this, you know.
1-15 means a lot less to these coaches and players than it does to the pundits. The players don't care about numbers. Some are superstitious, but none of them believe the Browns are cursed.
Joe Haden (or whoever) will study the guy he has to cover, and (now that he's healthy) feel good about covering him. Myles Garrett will figure out how best to beat that left tackle (and talk to Joe Thomas about it btw).
Each individual player will research his individual matchups, and you know what? They'll usually expect to beat that guy, ok? You know why? Because FOUR of them were first round picks for a REASON, DO YOU UNDERSTAND? and the guys like Kirksey, who had to earn their props, expect to win because they've been winning for a long time.
Bitonio and Thomas respect the venerable Gramps Suggs, but don't fear him. Except for the right tackle (who will have help vs Watt--they probably won't waste him on Big Joe)--just about every Browns player will expect to outplay his Ravens opposite number.
This is exactly what Bill Belichick means by "do your job": Beat the guy in your face (ok and stay in your gap/trust your teammates to to their jobs/don't freelance--but mainly beat your man).
New topic: Jamie Collins and freelancing. I do now think that this was a secondary or tertiary reason why Lord Insideous made his radical midseason trade with the Browns.
The primary reason was money. He didn't have enough cap space to keep everybody, and determined that Collins was the guy whose loss would hurt him the least. He simply got what he could for him instead of losing him for no recompense when his contract expired at the end of 2016.
But yes, I think Collins freelanced. The Sith Lord's defensive system is different from Gregg Williams' is.
Williams actually delegates specific play-calls to a linebacker, who he expects to adjust to what he sees in front of him faster than Gregg can from the sidelines. In this respect, it's more like the Ravens old sytem when they had Ray Lewis, and Mike Pettine did some of that as well.
I've heard that Joe Schobert (already!) can make these calls, and that Kirksey can too. But I expect Gregg to let Collins do it, so that he can be like Ray Lewis.
Jamie isn't very articulate, but you shouldn't let that fool you. He's highly intelligent, and he learned from the best. And if he can make the calls, he's his own boss. He kinda has a license to freelance all he wants.
Residents of Myopia and Oblivia didn't get the memo, but this is significant, and might well be the single most important factor in turning this defense around.
This is one of the reasons why I can't find a negative comment by any player who ever played for Williams, including guys who never started, rarely played, and got cut by him, and players he benched, or well, anybody.
Williams was one reason why Collins signed up long-term without shopping around or dickering, and why Jason McCourty made a bee-line here after being released.
Bill Belichick might be the best Head Coach in history, but Jamie Collins might not have been "optimized" in his defensive scheme. I'm not picking on Bill here: Before he was an awesome Head Coach, he was an awesome defensive coordinator.
Different strokes: in a Gregg Williams defense, there is an inviting square hole for this square peg, and he's really happy to have Jamie.
Ray Lewis was a little faster, but also shorter and smaller. Contrary to mythology, he got knocked on his kiester sometimes, whereas Collins has become a decent stack/shed guy. Lewis probably wins the comparison overall, but not by a whole lot.
Collins is a rare athlete who will probably be the defensive star of a lot of games in 2017. Gregg Williams will let him off the leash, and let him do his thing.
Collins is a universally repected Pro Bowl talent as-is. Under Gregg Williams, he might well make a big leap up from that level.
And by the way, he's one of these extremely rare big guys who can cover a Njoku or DeValve...didn't know that, did you?
I'll explain why the Browns will beat the Bengals in my next post. Or eventually.
Setting the Steelers aside, while the 2017 Browns will obviously have more talent and depth than the Ravens and Bengals, I don't expect the Browns to just steamroll them.
The Ravens did just add Jeremy Maclin and Gramps Watson to their offense, although the venerable tight end isn't exactly a Pitta at this point in his long, long career. (Note Ben Watson is a great american--this aint personal).
I also have to stipulate that the Ravens should have a stifling top five defense, particularly against the pass. They may well have the top safety tandem in the NFL, they've just added OLB JT Watt, who some say is a slightly smaller chip off his brother's block, and another solid defensive lineman.
But nobody gets this: The Browns offense will be different, and modern NFL defenses are not built to stop it. Both teams know that the Browns are going to try to run the ball (mostly with Crowell).
I have a hard time putting myself in opposing defensive coordinators' shoes, trying to decide which personnel grouping makes the most sense.
If you consider DeValve and Njoku as receivers first, then if you see two real wide receivers in the huddle, you almost have to go ahead and trade in a linebacker for a safety, first off.
But now, do you use a Nascar package front six, or play it straight and two-gap? That's not what Suggs or Watt do, and you don't take them off the field (although Gramps Suggs should come off to suck oxygen sometimes).
So, if Watt's not coming, he's not doing what he does best, as he's an edge-player. Blitzing outside vs a run opens up running lane. Coming inside across the tackle's face is more effective, but opens up that side the same way.
Blitzing inside linebackers or safeties through the a-gaps works better vs the run, because if a lineman does block you, he's coming off a big guy, and you still clog things up and force the back to run lateral. Sometimes you get through clean, and blow it up. If a running back picks you up, that's because it's a pass, and you've prevented him from becoming a receiver.
However, it's extra-dangerous to blitze inside against two dangerous tight ends, because one of them is going exactly into the space you just vacated.
You can't intimidate a 250 lb tight end. You can't reach around him, or knock the ball loose. On paper, those Ravens safeties match up with tight ends like these, but in reality, they're outweighed by over 30 lbs and out-reached by over a foot (it's not just height but arm-length and stuff; it's exponential).
Who's covering Britt? Can you really run zone against two tight ends and two wide receivers? (Not rhetorical--I really don't know). You want to man up with these guys? If you hold a safety deep can you even slow Crow down?
Watt can beat a tackle outside, but how far outside does he need to get to set up outside a tight end who's as athletic as he is? Hell, if he lines up way over there, screw the block just holler "Hit me I'm open" and let JT take himself out of your way!
Can you cover two tight ends and two wide receivers in man? Really all four?
That's just the monkey wrench, because the Browns will try to bully the Ravens defense and run behind seven real blockers (maybe eight). Vs probably a nickel, which is nervous about those two tight ends as receivers.
Now, I repeat that the Browns should zone-block, because Crowell thrives off that. He is the ideal one-cut back. Both inside and outside zones would be greatly enhanced by these two tight ends.
Tight ends have the size and speed to get to the edge, and they line up closer to it. They're trained to chip-block anyway; for them there's no learning curve. They execute their chip, and go munchkin-hunting instead of into a pattern.
I respect the Ravens defense, but think the Browns offense will have something for them. I'm not saying the Browns will score 30 points on them or anything.
The Browns might march up and down some, but the Ravens would blow some runs up and put Kessler (yeah Mary Kay Kessler) under the gun and kitchen-sink him and stuff. I'd take 16 points is that too much?
Where the Browns have the Ravens is Browns D vs Ravens O.
While you've been napping, the Browns have piled up Danny Shelton, Jamie Collins, Chistian Kirksey, Myles Garrett, and Jabrill Peppers. Oh yeah and Gregg Williams btw (who is grinning ear-to-ear).
Gregg Williams just can't help blitzing a lot, but will get into opposing backfields via the front four alone, so he can hold seven in coverage when he needs to.
Jeremy Maclin is a for-real threat, but Gregg can afford to keep a deep safety over him. He's the only deep threat, and he's not a tall guy, so the Browns corners aren't overmatched.
I would expect a very low-scoring game, and the referees could well hand it over to the Ravens again. But if they don't, the Browns overall talent should win.
Psychology is part of this, you know.
1-15 means a lot less to these coaches and players than it does to the pundits. The players don't care about numbers. Some are superstitious, but none of them believe the Browns are cursed.
Joe Haden (or whoever) will study the guy he has to cover, and (now that he's healthy) feel good about covering him. Myles Garrett will figure out how best to beat that left tackle (and talk to Joe Thomas about it btw).
Each individual player will research his individual matchups, and you know what? They'll usually expect to beat that guy, ok? You know why? Because FOUR of them were first round picks for a REASON, DO YOU UNDERSTAND? and the guys like Kirksey, who had to earn their props, expect to win because they've been winning for a long time.
Bitonio and Thomas respect the venerable Gramps Suggs, but don't fear him. Except for the right tackle (who will have help vs Watt--they probably won't waste him on Big Joe)--just about every Browns player will expect to outplay his Ravens opposite number.
This is exactly what Bill Belichick means by "do your job": Beat the guy in your face (ok and stay in your gap/trust your teammates to to their jobs/don't freelance--but mainly beat your man).
New topic: Jamie Collins and freelancing. I do now think that this was a secondary or tertiary reason why Lord Insideous made his radical midseason trade with the Browns.
The primary reason was money. He didn't have enough cap space to keep everybody, and determined that Collins was the guy whose loss would hurt him the least. He simply got what he could for him instead of losing him for no recompense when his contract expired at the end of 2016.
But yes, I think Collins freelanced. The Sith Lord's defensive system is different from Gregg Williams' is.
Williams actually delegates specific play-calls to a linebacker, who he expects to adjust to what he sees in front of him faster than Gregg can from the sidelines. In this respect, it's more like the Ravens old sytem when they had Ray Lewis, and Mike Pettine did some of that as well.
I've heard that Joe Schobert (already!) can make these calls, and that Kirksey can too. But I expect Gregg to let Collins do it, so that he can be like Ray Lewis.
Jamie isn't very articulate, but you shouldn't let that fool you. He's highly intelligent, and he learned from the best. And if he can make the calls, he's his own boss. He kinda has a license to freelance all he wants.
Residents of Myopia and Oblivia didn't get the memo, but this is significant, and might well be the single most important factor in turning this defense around.
This is one of the reasons why I can't find a negative comment by any player who ever played for Williams, including guys who never started, rarely played, and got cut by him, and players he benched, or well, anybody.
Williams was one reason why Collins signed up long-term without shopping around or dickering, and why Jason McCourty made a bee-line here after being released.
Bill Belichick might be the best Head Coach in history, but Jamie Collins might not have been "optimized" in his defensive scheme. I'm not picking on Bill here: Before he was an awesome Head Coach, he was an awesome defensive coordinator.
Different strokes: in a Gregg Williams defense, there is an inviting square hole for this square peg, and he's really happy to have Jamie.
Ray Lewis was a little faster, but also shorter and smaller. Contrary to mythology, he got knocked on his kiester sometimes, whereas Collins has become a decent stack/shed guy. Lewis probably wins the comparison overall, but not by a whole lot.
Collins is a rare athlete who will probably be the defensive star of a lot of games in 2017. Gregg Williams will let him off the leash, and let him do his thing.
Collins is a universally repected Pro Bowl talent as-is. Under Gregg Williams, he might well make a big leap up from that level.
And by the way, he's one of these extremely rare big guys who can cover a Njoku or DeValve...didn't know that, did you?
I'll explain why the Browns will beat the Bengals in my next post. Or eventually.
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