Tuesday, May 31, 2016

Offensive Bold Browns Predictions

In selecting schemes and plays from his Bible-sized master playbook, Hue Jackson at this point is probably expecting RG3 to be his quarterback this season.

He'll have to confront and acknowledge Griffin's weaknesses and work around them.  There will be an evaluation process, as Hue won't rely on old films.  He'll want to see where Griffin is now, because he has almost certainly improved since his last start.

Thus far, RG3 was sometimes slow to read the field, and held the ball too long.  He may have improved, and if he hasn't, Hue might improve him.

As I've mentioned before, the draft and UFA signings said a lot about Hue's intentions here.  Not just the three wide receivers picked after Coleman, but the fact that the only tight end selected was an oversized wide receiver.

Announcing Robbydamus predicts.  I will now tell you all about the Browns offense and who will be the big contributors.

The starting offensive line, at least as of game one, should be guys you know, Erving, and (just guessing) a former Seahawk who's name I can't find on the damn roster and can't remember dammit.

Shon Coleman could sneak in there, but more likely will be under construction as a backup.  No rookies here.  Even Erving has respectable experience, albeit at other positions.

No crystal balls required for the top two running backs, although Terrell Watson could get short yardage work and be used as a blocker.  Dude is just brutal.

Barnidge sure, but DeValve will be used more than most expect (keep reading).

As of game one, wide receiver is the toughest to predict.  

In reality, Corey Coleman has a lot to learn.  In the Baylor offense, he ran three patterns.  That's it.  Learning the route tree won't be hard for him, and executing it properly is easy for this kind of athlete.  But reading coverage and making the correct adjustments is much, much harder.  He will screw up.  He won't be where he's supposed to be sometimes.  The quarterback will get blamed.  People will say "what was he looking at?"

The other three drafted receivers are way ahead of Coleman here/now.  Higgins, in particular, should hit the ground running.  His performance thus far had much to do with the release of Brian Hartline.

Terrell Pryor is also ahead of Coleman.  In fact, he may be ahead of everybody not named Hawkins or Higgins.

Oh here we go with the eye-rolling again.  Pryor was a quarterback, so he can read coverage and make the right moves DUUHHHH.  He's been working on his route tree all along, and his big issue was execution.  (How to fake.  Mask "tells".  Get off the press.  CHEAT, etc.)

Before I predict the wide receivers, I have to predict the scheme:

Lots of Baylor stuff.  As I've blogged too much already, this is Coleman's and RG3's bread and butter, and would be cake for Terrell Pryor (three routes, remember?)

As I also mentioned, Duke Johnson is quite capable of playing wide receiver in this scheme.  DeValve and Barnidge could line up outside here too!

So what's the base set?  A two-back.  A 21 or 22, doesn't matter much.  Barnidge and DeValve are just Supersized possession receivers in the Baylor anyway.

Why?  Well, as I've already blogged about (sorry regular readers), because even though a defense knows that the Browns are liable to line up spread out, they just plain can't go small nickel or dime when they see two running backs and one or two tight ends.

If they do, when the huddle breaks they'll face a conventional or two tight end set with two actual running backs.  They get overpowered.  And they can't press Duke Johnson out of the backfield.  And Crowell can stone any shrimp blitzer they send.

By the way Earnest Byner is working with the backs.  You know he'll want both of them to lead block.  Byner was a great lead blocker for Kevin Mack.  

In the Baylor formation, Coleman and Pryor are two of the receivers.  They're NEXT TO Barnidge, DeValve, Higgins, or Duke.

You can get in their face to press them (high risk in and of itself), but if you try to press all four, it's almost suicidal.  

This is tough to describe: Press coverage needs to "steer"a receiver right or left, since obviously he will eventually get by you see?  A good press corner will make sure the receiver has no choice but to escape to whichever side he has determined he should.

This is so that he can stick with him for at least a few steps, and force him to cut away from him see?  It's predetermined: The press corner funnels the receiver to the sidelines, or toward a linebacker or safety who is waiting for him.

Well, in the Baylor, the side-by-side receivers make it tough:

Take Coleman outside and Barnidge inside:  Coleman, Hue, and RG3 know that the corner will seek inside leverage to keep Corey outside and try to ride him toward the sideline.

So Coleman says "okay you win" and just runs around behind Barnidge for a steep slant across the middle, while Barnidge goes vertical against his linebacker or strong safety or whatever.

Now the cornerback is CHASING Coleman, see?  For that matter, Barnidge could go OUTSIDE.

This is all legal.  It's a pick except it's not.  Now use your imagination.  Mix and match.  Pryor/Duke.  Higgins/Pryor.  Coleman/Duke.  Put the big guy outside and the little guy inside.  Do you see it?

But of course, Pryor, DeValve, Barnidge can just power through press coverage and blow the defensive plot to hell anyway, and maybe knock the coverage guy on his butt too.

Most likely, defenses will be compelled to run off-man coverage.  Zone would be dangerous with all those big guys, or Coleman stopping to catch short ones.

Ah, but what about the run?  Well, first off, this spread scheme (see previous entries) opens up the edges of the box and keeps the center fielder back.  It renders inside blitzes too risky. It all but prohibits more than six defenders in the box (if you count a safety 12 yards deep as in the box...not really)

The Baylor is also GREAT for play-action, by the way.

So I hereby predict that Pryor, Coleman, and Higgins will catch lots of passes.  I don't care who starts.

I also predict a lot of zone-blocking.  This now looks obvious, as it suits the roster, projected starters, base set, and scheme.

I must mention here that Barnidge/DeValve can block well in space.  

I'm not sure about Andrew Hawkins.  I can't predict he'll be released, but I can tell you that Coleman, Pryor, and Johnson could be lethal in a conventional slot.  I love Hawk, but...

Crowell, now: Everybody seems to be projecting Duke Johnson as the lead back now.  You think Hue Jackson is running for office or something.

Crowell averaged 5.2 ypc in his last five games of 2015, which was in line with what he'd done as a Cleveland Brown prior to that season.

Regular readers, I'm sorry I have to repeat this: Better late than never, DeFellipo adjusted the blocking scheme and decided it was okay to run to the strong side.

Isaiah Crowell is a STUD, when used intelligently.  The only issue I've had with him is that he goes down too easily, but that can be corrected.

I mean, the guy listed Marshawn Lynch as his favorite guy before his upcoming non-draft.  I have a very strong feeling that Hue Jackson and Kirby will remind him of that, often and frequently.

I predict that Crowell will discover his inner Beast-Mode in 2016.

Now RG3: He will be asked to make two reads, then improvise.  He will be conditioned to throw the damn ball away, slide, run out of bounds...dammit...

But the biggest reason the Baylor-heavy offense can work here is him.  He can and will go deep as often as possible.  He has to be contained, so inside pressure (like run-blitzes) are high risk.

He is extremely accurate.

I hereby predict that in 2016 the Cleveland Browns offense will achieve at least mediocrity (even if Griffin is hurt).

As an excellent article I read but can't find right now points out, they'll be vulnerable to elite 4-3 fronts (including the damn Bengals), and the team is stuck in this division.

So I'm not predicting wins and losses (except maybe sweeping the perennially overrated Ravens).

I'm just predicting that Terrelle Pryor will emerge as an elite outside non-gimmick receiver, Isaiah Crowell will be a top twelve running back, the Browns running game will rank in the top 13 or so, the offense in general will rank in the top half, Corey Coleman will kick ass (I forgot: He'll be in the conventional slot a lot), Higgins will do great, and you guys will stop confusing these guys with those guys and begin to hope.






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