Wednesday, May 4, 2016

Browns Linebackers, Wide Receivers FIXED.

As we saw in this draft, analytics doesn't only mean bigger faster stronger.  In most cases, the Sashi and Hue prioritized production.

The best examples of this were the two inside linebackers, Joe Schobert and Scooby Wright.

Neither is a physical specimen, or very fast.  But they are complete linebackers who can cover, shed blocks, stop the run, and blitze.  

What makes them exceptional values where they were drafted is the single most valuable (and hard to quantify) trait an inside linebacker can have: Recognition.

Some call this an intangible, but it can be seen and measured in game tapes.

If you run them in slow motion starting just prior to a snap, you can see which (non-lineman) defender moves first.  This is the guy who senses where the ball is going, and has the confidence to commit.  Your 40 time doesn't matter when you're a step ahead of everybody else.

Another trait these two have in common is aggressiveness.  Many linebackers pile up lots of tackles, but when you look deeper, you see that most of these tackles are after one to five yard gains, and from behind.

Scooby and Joe are disruptors who choose gaps and attack them to get tackles for losses.

Scooby gets dinged for being on the ground too often.  CBS Sports says he needs to reign his energy in.

I believe that means he gets suckered by cutbacks.  It's easy to get decked when you're trying to stop and turn around against the flow.

This is less something a Ray Horton will coach out of him than something he'll correct through experience.

Mike Pettine would stress lane discipline more than Ray Horton will.  

It's great that the Browns drafted Schobert first.  While he's similar to Wright, he is more disciplined, and Scooby will benefit from this competition.

The last thing you want to do to a linebacker with great recognition and anticipation is put a leash on him.  Without that head start his eyes and brain give him, he becomes just another guy.

What all the receivers have in common is an ability to separate and YAC.  These are West Coast traits, but also Air Coryall and Norv Turner traits.

Not since Josh Gordon have the Browns had a real deep threat.  Benjamin had the speed, but not the length or catch radius.

Coleman is four inches taller, and physical enough not to be jostled by wind gusts.

I still insist that Terrell Pryor is heavily in this mix, and can ultimately emerge as another Gordon, but Coleman has already proven it.

However, just like Pryor, he needs a lot of work.  As you've heard and read, he ran a very short and stunted route tree, and doesn't have much experience outside of the slot.

It's okay though.  Sashi and company are also going for upside over pro readiness, which is why they chose Coleman over Mel Kuiper's more obvious wide receiver in the first round.

A lot of these guys seem incapable of grasping this reality: The Browns admit to themselves that they won't be kicking the Bengals or Steelers to the curb any time soon.

That seems unthinkable to most football people (and pundits).  What "message does this send to your players?"

Well, if your players are dumb enough to believe in fairy tales, you're not going anywhere anyway.  And by the way, football players don't just lay down and die when they know their team isn't very good yet.

The sheer volume of this draft (and don't forget the one to three undrafted free agents who will stick around) guarantees that over thirty percent of this roster will be rookies, even after one or two of the wide receivers are released.

They and the second year players will be fighting for their careers.  Even the third year players are still on the ground floor.

That's plenty of motivation.

Football players aren't stupid.  Believe it or not, they can reason out that there are fourteen new guys here, with two first and two second round picks in 2017 and Hue Jackson.  They can accept losing in 2016, as long as they see a bright future ahead.

Nassib could be one example of upside over pro readiness.  Not including him, the Browns now have six outside linebackers fighting for four slots.

I think it's likely that Nassib is here to play left defensive end.  If so, he'll have to go see Hans and Franz and improve his leverage.  

Nassib is a thin 277 lbs now, but could easily carry 300 without losing speed (especially since his butt and legs are skinny too).  He'll need that to play DE in this system.  He won't be ready for full time duty in 2016, but could be a monster in 2017.

Before, I proposed trading Joe Thomas, partly because I didn't expect him to be around by the time the Browns started winning.

Now, I'm glad they kept him.  Because these numbers say that they can be competitive in 2017, and contend in 2018.  

How can you read this when you're rolling your eyes like that?  And what are you laughing at?


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