Friday, May 20, 2016

Browns Sleepers, Nappers, and Efficiency

Everybody knows about Duke Johnson, Joe Haden, and Joe Thomas.

Hopes are justifiably high for Ogbah and Corey Coleman.  Danny Shelton wasn't great, but should be pretty good now.

But here are some guys that I believe could surprise a lot of you.  Some, you know can be pretty good, but could be pretty great instead.  Others, you think can make an impact in a year or two, but can get there way ahead of schedule.  A couple, you have given up on.  A few, you misunderstand.

First, Terrell Pryor.  Yeah I know I'm the fan club, so I won't repeat myself again.  I'll just add that he can also save a roster spot as the emergency quarterback and do some wildcat stuff yaddayadda.

Next, Ibraheim Campbell.  He's labelled a strong safety, but he can play free.  I'm not even sure about Ray Horton's coverage scheme, but if it's cover two, you people need to shut up with the free and strong stuff anyway.

Campbell's scouting reports were loaded with errors, because he can cover almost like a cornerback, and has really good ball skills.  He has an excellent shot at starting in the base defense, and might even make us forget Gipson.

Carl Nassib is probably here to play left defensive end.  We see that he's a little light for that, because in Horton's defense he has to engage the right tackle a lot and will get chipped.

So we expect him to be a situational guy in 16 and not do much until 17, when he's bigger and stronger.

But he's a skinny 277 lbs on a 6'7" frame.  He has a reach advantage on most tackles, and can use that to keep them off him.  Because of that frame, he could weigh 290 by pre-season.  That's like Joe Haden adding like three pounds.  He's TEN INCHES TALLER than Joe, see?

He's not technically refined yet, so I'm not nominating him for the Pro Bowl.  I'm just saying that the left defensive end rotation could be Bryant and Nassib, right away.

Derrick Kindred is labelled a free safety.  I myself called him a box or strong safety and knocked him in coverage.  But he could be another Campbell.  

This guy played a whole season with a broken collarbone.  This obviously hampered his ability to tackle, but must have muffled him in coverage as well.  I'm amazed he could even use that arm!  I really doubt he could elevate that hand much above his own helmet.  What might he have done with both arms?  We're about to find out.

I can make this one a twofer: Scooby Wright and Joe Schobert.  I won't go over an old entry again.  Both of these guys are as good or better than Dansby at stopping the run.

We can expect to see two more experienced players to man inside linebacker this season, but there will be a rotation and Schobert, if not Wright, will be part of it, especially on running downs.

If somebody is injured, inside linebacker won't miss a beat.

Gilbert has to be listed here.  He's had two seasons, and has been a bust to this point.  This is his last chance, and he knows it.

Ray Horton was a defensive back.  The undrafted Gipson started his career under him.  No cornerback in the NFL has more physical talent than this guy right here.

If Gilbert's light goes on in 2016, the change will be sudden.  He will start opposite Haden, period, and it will give the Browns a truly elite cornerback tandem.

I said IF, and MIGHT.

Cameron Erving could be better than Alex Mack, who PPF rated about average last season.

In college, he moved from left tackle to center, and was top notch at both positions.

LeCharles Bentley is about the only guy any of us needs to hear talk about Cameron Erving.  His footwork was bad, and it screwed up his balance, and it can be FIXED.

Erving had first round grades and was the consensus best center in his draft.  He has yet to play a down at center in the NFL.  

He knows exactly what he's up against now, and exactly what he did wrong last season.  If you buried him based on his rookie season, you should be sterilized before you can contaminate the gene pool further.

Nate Orchard has to be mentioned here.  When did he become an asterisk?  He wasn't far off Ogbah in his scouting report, and really started bringing it at the tail end of his rookie season.

People are saying of Ogbah "now we finally got a pass rusher".  No, because we already HAD one!  Quit dissing ma man Nate!

And Paul Kruger too!  He couldn't rush the passer from coverage, okay?  Let him do his thing and he might get twelve sacks again.

That's especially true if Ogbah and Orchard are also coming...

And Mingo!  This is Mingo 2.0 the pumped up 255 pounder!

What the hell, let's just do like I did with Joe and Scooby and say ALL the outside linebackers might be instantly awesome in 2016.

I can't fathom the negativity here!  It's Ray Horton!  This system is not complicated, and the round pegs fit in the round holes!  The pass rush isn't a project!  It's here!  It's already here for crying out loud!

And by the way, Ogbah is even faster than Mingo how 'bout that?

I've seen tapes on that guy now (Film Room).  No, he's not a finished product, but he's phenomenally strong!  Pushing 300 lb offensive linemen around.  I love how he uses his arms and hands.  Rips, swims; He only needs a little crack, and the blocker is just finished.  He can do that to pros, right now.  He looked like the 260 lb Clay Matthews.  This guy will never need to get very cute or tricky.  Watch out for this guy, and I mean right tf now.

I must explain: A common "negative" trait among passrushers is "lack of bend", meaning they can't get low to the ground as they turn a corner to get behind an offensive tackle.  This is true of Ogbah and Nassib.

But it's not really a negative.  This is one way passrushers who rely on speed get by taller and stronger blockers.

But Ogbah isn't that type of passrusher.  His lack of "bend" is offset by his physical strength (and reach).  He doesn't HAVE to bend.

In choosing Ogbah and Nassib, Ray Horton might be saying something here:

Both are (comparatively) straight line rushers who don't need space.  They're much SAFER than a guy who runs in a half circle and bends, because they don't open up gaps for the quarterback to scramble through.

In fact, if an offense sees this tendency of a defensive end or outside linebacker to try to run around behind the tackle, they will target that gap with runs.

Space: Unlike the other 3-4 OLB prospects, Ogbah doesn't need to avoid the tackle.  He tries to either scrape by him, or bull rush him.  This is more reliable.

Benders are high risk.  More often than not, they're routed completely out of the play, and sometimes get driven face down into the turf.  Beaten offensive linemen often fall on top of them accidentally on purpose.  Ask Ross Tucker!  He did that a lot!  

And oh yeah: If he's a Cleveland Brown, it's okay for the tackle to just tackle him.

Ogbah might get stonewalled, but will be standing there, in the gap, and in position to pursue as well.  Like Clay Matthews.

I'm sorry I just need to gush some more about this guy: Here is how he tries to scrape by:  Usually, he'll fire his hands out to jolt the tackle's pads to get him a tad off-balance, then shoot close by him on one side or the other.

He's a natural at using leverage, as he rotates his shoulders to get his left arm past the tackle's left pad or vice-versa.  (Remember the punch; the tackle is dancing and trying to reset his feet to anchor, so his pads remain square).

Ogbah uses that arm as a wedge, and tries to follow it.  The two things he does from there are what Matthews did:

The rip puts his bicep under the tackle's arm pit and lifts that side of his body up as he continues driving and straightens.  Pro or college, you can't beat this.  If a passrusher gets you in this position, you lose.

The swim isn't really exactly that, but it ends like that.  He reaches behind the tackle's back and swings his arm like a bar to complete his penetration.

A good tackle can partly recover from this by turning with him and trying to push him off course (or fall on his legs), but he's still beaten and chasing a much, much faster guy.

NFL tackles will, of course, get their hands on Ogbah first sometimes, but as an outside linebacker coming from a few feet further away and sometimes a steeper angle, Ogbah can make that hard to time, as he can accelerate and lean forward and stuff to beat him to the punch.

Ah! Mingo 1.0 was a bender!  There's an example!  Kimerion Wimbley was another one.  Von Miller too.  But Orchard, Kruger, and Ogbah are not.  This will help the run defense.

Drango could be a semi-sleeper.  I've read conflicting scouting reports on him.  He's probably not going to take over a guard slot sans an injury, but might be tried at right tackle.

Pierre Desir is another guy.  Given the current roster, he may not play safety except situationally, but he could sneak in here as an impact player in his third season.

Desir is slow for a cornerback, but can be effective depending on matchup and scheme.  He has the tools for zone, and can match up with tall receivers in man.

Slower corners can make up for their lack of speed by bumping and jostling guys they're covering so that they can't get up to full speed.

Keep this in context: Desir vs Pryor or Gordon would be a tragic mismatch.  That's right.  Pryor.

Xavier Cooper.  This is a repeat, but I haven't extolled X's virtues for a long time so I'll indulge myself again now:

His most likely slot is right defensive end.  Really, that's tackle in this defense because he's between the weakside tackle and guard.

Cooper's first step is like Micheal Dean Perry's.  He was asked to read and react in Pettine's defense.  In Horton's defense, he is allowed to fire into gaps and attack.

Michael Dean was much shorter, with disproportionately short arms.  He was just so damn quick that it didn't matter-they couldn't get their hands on him before he was under their pads and half way by them.

Cooper doesn't have the same leverage, but has a great punch.  Less long speed, but more reach and similar short area quickness.

This guy can be really, really disruptive.  In 2016.  You just watch.

Danny Shelton will probably be called a nose tackle but won't really be one, because he'll line up in the strong side guard-tackle gap.

Well...Ray will probably have him shaded to the center and trying to knock him on his butt, so yeah ok call him a nose tackle.

The right guard will have to cover several feet to help the center, and that won't be optional.  Shelton, despite his ponderous bulk, is quick enough to push the center back, at least a little, before he has to deal with the guard.

This moves the line back and shrinks the pocket vertically, which in turn helps the outside passrushers, who can loop deeper when they know the quarterback can't escape forward.

He can split double teams and bulldoze his way to quarterbacks or reroute running backs.  He will keep the right guard away from Bryant/Nassib and the inside linebackers.  The right tackle will have to take the left defensive end one-on-one and in space.  The tight end can chip, but only from the outside.  And if he does that, what about Ogbah, Orchard, Mingo, or Kruger?

Poyer is turning into a terrific safety.  He frankly outperformed Gipson throughout pre-season last year.  

During the season, he got burned several times, but much more at cornerback than at safety.

I can't find the safety they signed from the Texans on this roster, but he was a second round pick and a long-time starter.  I know he got benched in Texas, but he could make up for it in 2016.

The cornerback they got in the draft day trade from Miami is also good at worst, but very talented.  Like the other guy, he's a veteran and will compete for number two cornerback.

I wish the Team Page at NFL.com would keep the roster current, because I can't remember all these names.

Anyway now that I review all this, I probably should have just listed defense, offensive line, and Terrell Pryor...

Oh yeah tight end: Seth DeValve should be a monster at that position, not just next season, but immediately.

They're not about to replace Gary Barnidge, but DeValve should be second on the depth chart by game one, and a receiver is a receiver, and Hue will use two tight ends sometimes, even in the Baylor.

Hue seems to be neck deep in pass-catchers now. 

Oh! Ricardo Lewis needs to be listed here.  I was reluctant to mention him because of his many, many drops, but if he fixes his hands, he can be a playmaking stud.

The potential at wide receiver is three deep threats.  Think about this.

Naturally, not all these guys will match their potentials in 2016, and some, like Lewis, are longshots.

But just look at the competition the new staff and front office have created here!  It's truly impressive.

And Hue is making sure everybody gets their chances (reps) by running split practices.  That's impressive too.

Clearly, this team will be much better prepared than any of the preceding teams were.  But also, the coaches are far less likely to release the wrong players as they trim the roster.

The efficiency is...unprecedented.  I have to wonder how much Paul DePodesta had to do with this.  The players getting twice the reps, the staff twice the information (data) on which to make roster decisions.

Ohmmm...Ohmmm...Steelers.  Bengals.  Ok I'm better now.  I was starting to get optimistic.

THIS JUST IN: Cody Kessler!  I finally saw extensive (unedited) film on him from various sources, and some of those scouting reports were truly fulla  crap.

No I'm not an expert, but I know when I see a really athletic guy who can throw while running (or jumping in the air for that matter).  And I know a strong enough arm when I see it too.

And I kept looking for an example of his getting rattled by pressure and couldn't find it.  Now I know some of what Hue Jackson saw.

I also saw Chip Bayliss being fulla crap again, predicting that Kessler would start game one over RG3.  That was dumb, because as I keep repeating, Hue will serve no quarterback before his time, and no rookie is truly ready.

Chip: The Browns don't expect to overtake the Steelers and Bengals with a team full of rookies.  RG3 will probably be better, and therefore will probably start.

But I digress: Add Kessler to this list.  This guy might be really special down the road, and could indeed play in 2016 when RG3 gets hurt.


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