On Kessler: The consensus on this guy is that he has a high floor and a low ceiling. That is, he can become a really good backup, or a journeyman starter.
I like Terry Pluto's analysis here, as he zeroes right in on the main issue: Kessler has done poorly on passes of over twenty yards.
As Terry points out, the "franchise" guys hit around 50% on these. Kessler is down around...was it 32%? 29%? Anyway pretty bad.
But Terry knows what Hue knows. While this statistic does indeed separate the men from the boys, accuracy is more important.
As Jim Miller taught me, and Greg Cosell concedes, and Tom Brady has proven, arm strength can be enhanced over time.
Most immediately, fine-tuning footwork and other mechanics gets a new quarterback off to a good start.
Per Miller, the rest is mostly drudgery: Throwing a lot, for distance and velocity (weight training doesn't help).
Kessler doesn't have a weak arm. Just an "adequate" arm. Bob Rang (I think) honed in on hesitation, or indecision, on deep routes, as well.
But Hue said "you've got to trust me on this one", and I literally do.
To me, the criticisms of Kessler seem a little over the top. More precisely, the standard he falls short of is that of a franchise quarterback. If Wentz succeeds and Kessler fails...really? Really?
Is he accurate? Extremely. Does he make good decisions? Absolutely. Can he evade pressure? Yup. Is he a leader? Indubitably.
The low percentages on twenty-plus yard throws are definitely a concern here, but not the fact that he's only about as tall as Aaron Rodgers, or loses accuracy throwing on the run (like Tom Brady).
Hue seems to think he can fix everything that's REALLY wrong with Kessler. So far, per consensus, that's deep accuracy. Period.
I don't believe Kessler can unseat RG3 as the starter any time soon. For one thing, that deep passing stuff isn't natural for him, and will take time.
Another reason is this: Coacheze aside, Hue Jackson appears to be adapting his offense to RG3 already, in some of the ways Mike Shanahan did in his rookie season.
As I learned from the linked article (which you should check out after reading my own humbly brilliant insights), the Baylor offense isn't a gimmick. Defenses can't come up with answers to it as easily as they did the read-option or wildcat. It's a legitimate scheme with the legs to last.
Later, when you click the link, you'll see it's a four-wide. The weaknesses are obvious: No in-line tight end or fullback. The quarterback is more vulnerable, especially from the edge.
There are other disadvantages, but I'll get to those later if I feel like it, and anyway the really smart guy who wrote the article covered it.
The advantages are many. Like any four wide, it forces the defense to run a dime defense, and take a passrusher/run defender (or two) off the field.
Nowadays with 3-4 wides the rule rather than the exception, teams seek out linebacker/safety and safety/cornerback hybrids, and load up on defensive backs. Hue Jackson can't nurse any delusions about replicating Griffin's rookie success in Washington.
Still, the four wide stresses depth, and wears down secondaries. It's also harder to find really good coverage guys than it is to find big guys, and you know, they get hurt a lot, you know?
The Baylor offense pushes the two slot guys to the outside next to the outside receivers. This, in turn, draws two defenders further outside (and away from the pocket, quarterback, and tailback).
In the Browns version of this, Gary Barnidge (and possibly the wide receiver they just drafted to play tight end) are two of the "slot" guys lined up next to the real wide receivers.
Defenses have an answer: the Big Dime. If they're lucky, they have a safety/linebacker hybrid they think can hang with the big guy, and they position him somewhat inside, since the slot guy is more likely to break inside at some point, and you want that guy biased inside, against the run.
Ideally, the offense has two deep threats, and can put one on each side. This forces the two remaining coverage guys (usually safeties) to play backed off somewhat, and away from the box.
This offense makes zone coverage impractical, if not impossible. It forces some version of man coverage because the receivers are clustered. This is easy for the quarterback to read pre-snap.
Now, you have a bunch of small, fast people , four of which are lined up way over here and way over there (with one cluster closer, of course, but I won't get into that here), and two more little guys kind of more inside but still backed up ten or so yards and in predictable locations, see?
This leaves five defenders to rush the passer, and as the first line of defense vs the run. You have five blockers. They can only send five passrushers.
Would play action work here, do you think? I do! Because this defense is terrified of the run. Because the running back has massive open space to exploit before the little guys can converge on him.
Oh, but it's much, much worse than that. The defense will know that Hue wants to protect RG3, but also that he might be the fastest guy on the field, and can be very painful if he isn't contained by a disciplined rush, or if he simply decides or is intended to gouge them with his legs.
I must digress here: RG3 has been hurt badly, and isn't very big, but is not made of glass. He is also very intelligent, and given his personal experience and Hue's guidance, can certainly master the complexities of the sidelines and the hook slide.
In fact, some of the RG3-bashing I've heard is racist. That accounts for at least half the dirt that's been shoveled onto his premature coffin in his premature career grave.
Since I'm digressing anyway, RG3 is an exceptional deep passer by the way.
End of digression: The Baylor offense lends itself to major gougery in the running game, plus dumpoff passes.
There is literally a blocker for every run defender in the box, and the guy the running back needs to make miss or run over won't reach him til he's a yard or four downfield.
Versus that much defensive speed, huge plays aren't to be expected.
Just you know, like 3, 6, 13, 22, and maybe 30 yard gains, is all.
So we'll still need a running back since so far we only have one playmayger who can consistently score from 50 yards out...jeez...
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