Sunday, May 8, 2016

Hue Lets the Dawgs Out

Dawgs By Nature wrote one of the most comprehensive and Best Browns Draft Analysis I've ever read.  I kept waiting to read something stupid or ignorant, and it just never came.

Chris Pokorny should get some kind of award for this piece.  He included links to an analytics expert's take on each player which was in turn impressive.

Naturally, you don't want to check that out before you read my own humbly brilliant insights:

Hue Jackson can't run only a Baylor offense in the NFL.  NFL defenses will figure out how to beat any one scheme, and every scheme has weaknesses.

But Hue can sometimes use the same personnel for the Baylor that he does in a conventional 21 or even 22 pro set (two backs one tight end or two backs two tight ends).  

This puts the defense in a base personnel.  Some defenses would use a big nickel, replacing one run-stopper with a safety/linebacker hybrid or a box safety.  That's the Duke Johnson effect.

This is a run grouping they'll see trotting to the offensive huddle, and they can't go little.  

Now, when the huddle breaks, Barnidge and Duke, along with Coleman and new tight end Seth DeValve or somebody, go way outside, past the slot.

This is bad news for the defense.  The two cornerbacks go to the outermost receivers.  Who goes with Duke and Gary?

Well, one of the conventional safeties almost has to go with Duke, but the other one can't commit and leave the deep middle a vacuum waiting to be filled.  He has to hang back and plug the inevitable leak.

Depending on if it's base or big nickel, it's the strong box safety or a linebacker (inside, or weak side, never a 3-4 OLB) who has to go say hi to Gary Barnidge.

Now you've got a free safety (sweating profusely) hanging back in center field, and the other safety and a linebacker way over in the cornfield, leaving six guys in the box.

It's RG3 in the pistol, and he's got Crow next to him, so they can't sell out blitzing.  They have to try to overpower the center and maintain containment outside.

Crow can block, or run, or catch.  Most defenses will blitze one guy just to try to pin the running back in the backfield and take him off the table as a receiver.

From here, the Browns can run a read-option, pitchout, rollout, or anything else.

Note: If it's a run, it could go to either side of the field.  That is, the defenders will not be able to flood the weak side and ignore the strong side, as they did for the first twelve games of last season DO YOU UNDERSTAND?

The clustered receivers have another advantage, as they can crisscross and make the defenders run around each other, opening them up.

Corey Coleman is from Baylor.  One of the two knocks on him is the limited route tree he ran there.  Vertical or inside cross.  

Interestingly, this could kill a third bird with one stone: Terrell Pryor could play in this offense immediately.

This is especially bad for a defender when the outside receiver goes horizontal across the middle.  He is left in pursuit, trying to catch up.

That's what the deep safety is there for, of course, but he's going to be late.  This pick could be run on both sides, and at least one receiver will almost always race vertically down the sidelines to pressure that safety.

If Crow gets the ball, he has acres of space to exploit.  On the strong or the weak side.

The Browns couldn't do this all the time, of course.  They need to be able to load up in short yardage, and some defenses won't be as vulnerable to the Baylor as others.

You can't use motion or run bubble screens out of this set.

The Browns drafted four receivers, including DeValve.  DeValve is like EJ Bibbs, and could knock him off the team.  The undrafted sleeper tight end (Holtz) also has a good chance, as he can block in-line.  That guy could, in fact, be Barnidge's eventual replacement.

Three tight ends.  Higgins and Jordon Payton are kind of like Hartline, and could knock him out.

Nobody is like Hawkins, but he's been hurt, and I don't know if Hue will see the need for microbes.

Chris thinks they'll keep six wide receivers, and may be right.  Chris even agrees with me that Rodney Pryorfield should have time to prove himself and, if released, be among the last (and don't bet on that.)

Here's another refreshing article by a guy who might have stole his material from me.

Many of you will laugh at him, as he concludes by saying 9-7 wouldn't surprise him.

You might find that optimistic (me too), but you shouldn't laugh at people who back up everything they say as well as this guy did.

He's right: RG3 isn't a bumb, and Hue Jackson will make an RG3-friendly offense.  The offensive line lost two, not four, players, and isn't a shambles at all.  Corey Coleman joins Barnidge, Duke, and Crow as a pretty good skill quartet.

Heard they cut Scott Solomon.  I was afraid of that.  Stay tuned on that guy, though.  He's good.  He'll be around.

The Browns will now be releasing some pretty good players.  Wow, that didn't take long!

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