In selecting schemes and plays from his Bible-sized master playbook, Hue Jackson at this point is probably expecting RG3 to be his quarterback this season.
He'll have to confront and acknowledge Griffin's weaknesses and work around them. There will be an evaluation process, as Hue won't rely on old films. He'll want to see where Griffin is now, because he has almost certainly improved since his last start.
Thus far, RG3 was sometimes slow to read the field, and held the ball too long. He may have improved, and if he hasn't, Hue might improve him.
As I've mentioned before, the draft and UFA signings said a lot about Hue's intentions here. Not just the three wide receivers picked after Coleman, but the fact that the only tight end selected was an oversized wide receiver.
Announcing Robbydamus predicts. I will now tell you all about the Browns offense and who will be the big contributors.
The starting offensive line, at least as of game one, should be guys you know, Erving, and (just guessing) a former Seahawk who's name I can't find on the damn roster and can't remember dammit.
Shon Coleman could sneak in there, but more likely will be under construction as a backup. No rookies here. Even Erving has respectable experience, albeit at other positions.
No crystal balls required for the top two running backs, although Terrell Watson could get short yardage work and be used as a blocker. Dude is just brutal.
Barnidge sure, but DeValve will be used more than most expect (keep reading).
As of game one, wide receiver is the toughest to predict.
In reality, Corey Coleman has a lot to learn. In the Baylor offense, he ran three patterns. That's it. Learning the route tree won't be hard for him, and executing it properly is easy for this kind of athlete. But reading coverage and making the correct adjustments is much, much harder. He will screw up. He won't be where he's supposed to be sometimes. The quarterback will get blamed. People will say "what was he looking at?"
The other three drafted receivers are way ahead of Coleman here/now. Higgins, in particular, should hit the ground running. His performance thus far had much to do with the release of Brian Hartline.
Terrell Pryor is also ahead of Coleman. In fact, he may be ahead of everybody not named Hawkins or Higgins.
Oh here we go with the eye-rolling again. Pryor was a quarterback, so he can read coverage and make the right moves DUUHHHH. He's been working on his route tree all along, and his big issue was execution. (How to fake. Mask "tells". Get off the press. CHEAT, etc.)
Before I predict the wide receivers, I have to predict the scheme:
Lots of Baylor stuff. As I've blogged too much already, this is Coleman's and RG3's bread and butter, and would be cake for Terrell Pryor (three routes, remember?)
As I also mentioned, Duke Johnson is quite capable of playing wide receiver in this scheme. DeValve and Barnidge could line up outside here too!
So what's the base set? A two-back. A 21 or 22, doesn't matter much. Barnidge and DeValve are just Supersized possession receivers in the Baylor anyway.
Why? Well, as I've already blogged about (sorry regular readers), because even though a defense knows that the Browns are liable to line up spread out, they just plain can't go small nickel or dime when they see two running backs and one or two tight ends.
If they do, when the huddle breaks they'll face a conventional or two tight end set with two actual running backs. They get overpowered. And they can't press Duke Johnson out of the backfield. And Crowell can stone any shrimp blitzer they send.
By the way Earnest Byner is working with the backs. You know he'll want both of them to lead block. Byner was a great lead blocker for Kevin Mack.
In the Baylor formation, Coleman and Pryor are two of the receivers. They're NEXT TO Barnidge, DeValve, Higgins, or Duke.
You can get in their face to press them (high risk in and of itself), but if you try to press all four, it's almost suicidal.
This is tough to describe: Press coverage needs to "steer"a receiver right or left, since obviously he will eventually get by you see? A good press corner will make sure the receiver has no choice but to escape to whichever side he has determined he should.
This is so that he can stick with him for at least a few steps, and force him to cut away from him see? It's predetermined: The press corner funnels the receiver to the sidelines, or toward a linebacker or safety who is waiting for him.
Well, in the Baylor, the side-by-side receivers make it tough:
Take Coleman outside and Barnidge inside: Coleman, Hue, and RG3 know that the corner will seek inside leverage to keep Corey outside and try to ride him toward the sideline.
So Coleman says "okay you win" and just runs around behind Barnidge for a steep slant across the middle, while Barnidge goes vertical against his linebacker or strong safety or whatever.
Now the cornerback is CHASING Coleman, see? For that matter, Barnidge could go OUTSIDE.
This is all legal. It's a pick except it's not. Now use your imagination. Mix and match. Pryor/Duke. Higgins/Pryor. Coleman/Duke. Put the big guy outside and the little guy inside. Do you see it?
But of course, Pryor, DeValve, Barnidge can just power through press coverage and blow the defensive plot to hell anyway, and maybe knock the coverage guy on his butt too.
Most likely, defenses will be compelled to run off-man coverage. Zone would be dangerous with all those big guys, or Coleman stopping to catch short ones.
Ah, but what about the run? Well, first off, this spread scheme (see previous entries) opens up the edges of the box and keeps the center fielder back. It renders inside blitzes too risky. It all but prohibits more than six defenders in the box (if you count a safety 12 yards deep as in the box...not really)
The Baylor is also GREAT for play-action, by the way.
So I hereby predict that Pryor, Coleman, and Higgins will catch lots of passes. I don't care who starts.
I also predict a lot of zone-blocking. This now looks obvious, as it suits the roster, projected starters, base set, and scheme.
I must mention here that Barnidge/DeValve can block well in space.
I'm not sure about Andrew Hawkins. I can't predict he'll be released, but I can tell you that Coleman, Pryor, and Johnson could be lethal in a conventional slot. I love Hawk, but...
Crowell, now: Everybody seems to be projecting Duke Johnson as the lead back now. You think Hue Jackson is running for office or something.
Crowell averaged 5.2 ypc in his last five games of 2015, which was in line with what he'd done as a Cleveland Brown prior to that season.
Regular readers, I'm sorry I have to repeat this: Better late than never, DeFellipo adjusted the blocking scheme and decided it was okay to run to the strong side.
Isaiah Crowell is a STUD, when used intelligently. The only issue I've had with him is that he goes down too easily, but that can be corrected.
I mean, the guy listed Marshawn Lynch as his favorite guy before his upcoming non-draft. I have a very strong feeling that Hue Jackson and Kirby will remind him of that, often and frequently.
I predict that Crowell will discover his inner Beast-Mode in 2016.
Now RG3: He will be asked to make two reads, then improvise. He will be conditioned to throw the damn ball away, slide, run out of bounds...dammit...
But the biggest reason the Baylor-heavy offense can work here is him. He can and will go deep as often as possible. He has to be contained, so inside pressure (like run-blitzes) are high risk.
He is extremely accurate.
I hereby predict that in 2016 the Cleveland Browns offense will achieve at least mediocrity (even if Griffin is hurt).
As an excellent article I read but can't find right now points out, they'll be vulnerable to elite 4-3 fronts (including the damn Bengals), and the team is stuck in this division.
So I'm not predicting wins and losses (except maybe sweeping the perennially overrated Ravens).
I'm just predicting that Terrelle Pryor will emerge as an elite outside non-gimmick receiver, Isaiah Crowell will be a top twelve running back, the Browns running game will rank in the top 13 or so, the offense in general will rank in the top half, Corey Coleman will kick ass (I forgot: He'll be in the conventional slot a lot), Higgins will do great, and you guys will stop confusing these guys with those guys and begin to hope.
Tuesday, May 31, 2016
Veteran Days Off: Common Sense.
1: Giving Joe Thomas or any older veteran days off is common sense. The "leadership" stuff coming from even former players is irrational, and maybe even juvenile.
If you're smart enough to use three-syllable words, you're smart enough to understand that those old knee joints and that old spine don't need to take unnecessary wear and tear because you are jealous.
You want to take a year off Joe's career. You want to prevent his backups from getting reps which he needs like a hole in the head. You define "leadership" as a Hall of Famer suffering next to you even though it's just plain stupid.
Even though it increases the likelihood that he'll be injured and lost to you AND that the guy who replaces him won't be ready.
Thank God the players on this team aren't like you.
Any football player who has proven himself, and obviously doesn't need to learn or refine anything, should have days off to preserve his health and prolong his career.
Second and third string guys who are learning and do need refinement should take those reps. This is obvious. Think with your brain. I'm glad Hue Jackson uses his.
2: In a slow news week, there's a whole lot of redundant re-reporting about the Browns plans to rely on a strong running game.
This seemed a pretty obvious strategy to me since the middle of last season or so. But as the articles point out, this is how Hue Jackson rolls anyway.
Several weeks ago, before the draft, Hue Jackson was asked how to turn a quarterback into a franchise quarterback. To paraphrase Hue's answer: "Establish a strong running game. Build a strong defense. Get him reliable receivers. Protect him."
All quite valid answers, and don't think for a minute he was kidding.
Hue Jackson had a great deal to do with how the Browns Draft was conducted. Hue was all-in with building up the team around the quarterback, even though it meant passing up Carson Wentz (and Paxton Lynch).
3: The ingredients of a strong running game are here, including the offensive linemen.
Why are you rolling your eyes? Run-blocking is much easier for an offensive lineman than pass-protection.
It's much easier to turn any given five starters into good run-blockers than pass-protectors.
Pat Kirwan can tell you, it requires a commitment by the coaches, more than anything else. THIS is the hard part, because the reps spent on running take away from the reps spent practicing pass protection.
A mentality and attitude has to be established. It's not fancy--even in a zone scheme. It's about winning personal battles in the trenches. Confidence. Determination. Anger. Attitude.
But what about pass protection, you axe. Good point. Read my next entry.
If you're smart enough to use three-syllable words, you're smart enough to understand that those old knee joints and that old spine don't need to take unnecessary wear and tear because you are jealous.
You want to take a year off Joe's career. You want to prevent his backups from getting reps which he needs like a hole in the head. You define "leadership" as a Hall of Famer suffering next to you even though it's just plain stupid.
Even though it increases the likelihood that he'll be injured and lost to you AND that the guy who replaces him won't be ready.
Thank God the players on this team aren't like you.
Any football player who has proven himself, and obviously doesn't need to learn or refine anything, should have days off to preserve his health and prolong his career.
Second and third string guys who are learning and do need refinement should take those reps. This is obvious. Think with your brain. I'm glad Hue Jackson uses his.
2: In a slow news week, there's a whole lot of redundant re-reporting about the Browns plans to rely on a strong running game.
This seemed a pretty obvious strategy to me since the middle of last season or so. But as the articles point out, this is how Hue Jackson rolls anyway.
Several weeks ago, before the draft, Hue Jackson was asked how to turn a quarterback into a franchise quarterback. To paraphrase Hue's answer: "Establish a strong running game. Build a strong defense. Get him reliable receivers. Protect him."
All quite valid answers, and don't think for a minute he was kidding.
Hue Jackson had a great deal to do with how the Browns Draft was conducted. Hue was all-in with building up the team around the quarterback, even though it meant passing up Carson Wentz (and Paxton Lynch).
3: The ingredients of a strong running game are here, including the offensive linemen.
Why are you rolling your eyes? Run-blocking is much easier for an offensive lineman than pass-protection.
It's much easier to turn any given five starters into good run-blockers than pass-protectors.
Pat Kirwan can tell you, it requires a commitment by the coaches, more than anything else. THIS is the hard part, because the reps spent on running take away from the reps spent practicing pass protection.
A mentality and attitude has to be established. It's not fancy--even in a zone scheme. It's about winning personal battles in the trenches. Confidence. Determination. Anger. Attitude.
But what about pass protection, you axe. Good point. Read my next entry.
Saturday, May 28, 2016
Browns Blocking and Logic
When Hue Jackson was hired, the punditry leaped to the conclusion that since he ran a power-blocking scheme in Cincinnati, he would do the same here.
Regardless of his personnel.
I doubted this, since from everything I'd heard about Hue, he has a cerebral cortex.
Also, he hired Kirby Wilson, who most recently ran a lot of zone (especially outside).
The retention of Joe Thomas, the necessary elevation of Cam Erving, two former Seattle Seahawks contending at right tackle, Greco and Bitonio, and drafting Shon Coleman all indicate at least a strong zone element to this run-blocking scheme (see how I analyticalizationalized that?)
Zone sounds complicated, but is actually much simpler than man. This is very helpful to a rookie center, and a potential rookie right tackle.
It's also very helpful to an offensive line with two new additions, regardless of position. While pass blocking can still get confusing, run-blocking is pre-programmed, regardless of what the defense does.
Also notable was the fact that no true fullback was drafted. One real blocking tight end (Holtz) was signed as an undrafted free agent.
Remember, in 2014, the Browns (mainly Rodney Crowellfield) had a good running game running Kyle Shanahan's inside zone blocking scheme.
Bitonio and Greco ranked among the very best guards in the NFL. Mitchell Schwartze, on the other hand, went from average in 2014 to elite in 2015 after DeFellipo altered the scheme...And isn't that interesting?
By the way, you can't be a zone running back without what they call "vision". Isaiah Crowell excelled in this system partly because of his vision.
In a man scheme, one or two alleged holes are allegedly created in pre-designated gaps, and the back must hit them as fast as possible.
If the hole isn't THERE, he ends up running into his linemen's backs unless he has room to get outside, because...well, is he supposed to run backwards and all the way across the field? Throw a pass? What's he supposed to do huh?
He hits his own lineman and hopes the extra boost will help the blocker dig out the guy who's stood him up so he can get a yard or so before he's swarmed under.
In an inside zone, the running back goes shopping. He doesn't know where his daylight will be. He only knows which side of the field it's supposed to be on.
He relies on (wait for it...) VISION.
Crowell has it. He's a good zone back. Duke Johnson is perfect for this as well; probably more dangerous than Crowell, because he's more explosive out of his cuts and can constantly threaten the edge.
People say Duke can't run inside. That's an assumption, and is ridiculous. Many, many shorter, smaller running backs were great inside runners. Emmitt Smith is the most famous. Maurice Jones Drew is more recent.
Duke is strong for his size, harder to see, and uses his leverage. He has a terrific stiff-arm and is surprisingly hard to take down (or get a clean shot at).
Still, he'd be much better off doing it in a zone scheme, where that one sudden cut and dash is built in, and the defenders can't plant and anchor.
Athletic tight ends can be effective blockers in space in a zone scheme too. They are coverage linebacker and safety magnets, and are always in position to reach that guy in space.
Nick Dudukovich (Factory of Sadness) wrote a good article on the "old guard" vs analytics in judging the Browns off season.
I can respect the old guard and get their skepticism, but I can't fathom how they could give the Browns a "D".
Nick was a little off on Bill Polian, however. I heard what Bill said and says about the Browns.
Polian likes the signing of RG3, calling him "salvageable". Like most real experts, he stipulates that he's not a pocket passer, but that he expects Hue Jackson to know how to make the most of him.
As Nick says, Bill said he didn't know what the Browns would look like in game one, but that's literally all he meant.
He doesn't know how well Erving will play, who will start across from Corey Coleman, whether Haden will be back, who the other cornerback will be, who will play right tackle, etc.
Polian is dubious about analytics, but is keeping his mental door open.
This dumbass Browns Freak is embarrassing us on NFL Radio as I write, and got Zig Fercosi excited about Brian Hartline.
Zig doesn't get why he was released, since he is a rock solid possession guy, and none of the young guys has proven anything yet.
Zig, the young guys will get better faster if they get more practice reps. The Browns won't contend in 2016, and Hartline will turn 31 during the 2017 season.
In addition to Higgins and Payton, two big tall undrafted free agent possession guys were signed, and Devalve can do much of what Hartline did, whatever you want to call him.
No, none of them has proven anything yet, but if you think all five will crap out, you're out of your mind.
Try not to over think this.
Regardless of his personnel.
I doubted this, since from everything I'd heard about Hue, he has a cerebral cortex.
Also, he hired Kirby Wilson, who most recently ran a lot of zone (especially outside).
The retention of Joe Thomas, the necessary elevation of Cam Erving, two former Seattle Seahawks contending at right tackle, Greco and Bitonio, and drafting Shon Coleman all indicate at least a strong zone element to this run-blocking scheme (see how I analyticalizationalized that?)
Zone sounds complicated, but is actually much simpler than man. This is very helpful to a rookie center, and a potential rookie right tackle.
It's also very helpful to an offensive line with two new additions, regardless of position. While pass blocking can still get confusing, run-blocking is pre-programmed, regardless of what the defense does.
Also notable was the fact that no true fullback was drafted. One real blocking tight end (Holtz) was signed as an undrafted free agent.
Remember, in 2014, the Browns (mainly Rodney Crowellfield) had a good running game running Kyle Shanahan's inside zone blocking scheme.
Bitonio and Greco ranked among the very best guards in the NFL. Mitchell Schwartze, on the other hand, went from average in 2014 to elite in 2015 after DeFellipo altered the scheme...And isn't that interesting?
By the way, you can't be a zone running back without what they call "vision". Isaiah Crowell excelled in this system partly because of his vision.
In a man scheme, one or two alleged holes are allegedly created in pre-designated gaps, and the back must hit them as fast as possible.
If the hole isn't THERE, he ends up running into his linemen's backs unless he has room to get outside, because...well, is he supposed to run backwards and all the way across the field? Throw a pass? What's he supposed to do huh?
He hits his own lineman and hopes the extra boost will help the blocker dig out the guy who's stood him up so he can get a yard or so before he's swarmed under.
In an inside zone, the running back goes shopping. He doesn't know where his daylight will be. He only knows which side of the field it's supposed to be on.
He relies on (wait for it...) VISION.
Crowell has it. He's a good zone back. Duke Johnson is perfect for this as well; probably more dangerous than Crowell, because he's more explosive out of his cuts and can constantly threaten the edge.
People say Duke can't run inside. That's an assumption, and is ridiculous. Many, many shorter, smaller running backs were great inside runners. Emmitt Smith is the most famous. Maurice Jones Drew is more recent.
Duke is strong for his size, harder to see, and uses his leverage. He has a terrific stiff-arm and is surprisingly hard to take down (or get a clean shot at).
Still, he'd be much better off doing it in a zone scheme, where that one sudden cut and dash is built in, and the defenders can't plant and anchor.
Athletic tight ends can be effective blockers in space in a zone scheme too. They are coverage linebacker and safety magnets, and are always in position to reach that guy in space.
Nick Dudukovich (Factory of Sadness) wrote a good article on the "old guard" vs analytics in judging the Browns off season.
I can respect the old guard and get their skepticism, but I can't fathom how they could give the Browns a "D".
Nick was a little off on Bill Polian, however. I heard what Bill said and says about the Browns.
Polian likes the signing of RG3, calling him "salvageable". Like most real experts, he stipulates that he's not a pocket passer, but that he expects Hue Jackson to know how to make the most of him.
As Nick says, Bill said he didn't know what the Browns would look like in game one, but that's literally all he meant.
He doesn't know how well Erving will play, who will start across from Corey Coleman, whether Haden will be back, who the other cornerback will be, who will play right tackle, etc.
Polian is dubious about analytics, but is keeping his mental door open.
This dumbass Browns Freak is embarrassing us on NFL Radio as I write, and got Zig Fercosi excited about Brian Hartline.
Zig doesn't get why he was released, since he is a rock solid possession guy, and none of the young guys has proven anything yet.
Zig, the young guys will get better faster if they get more practice reps. The Browns won't contend in 2016, and Hartline will turn 31 during the 2017 season.
In addition to Higgins and Payton, two big tall undrafted free agent possession guys were signed, and Devalve can do much of what Hartline did, whatever you want to call him.
No, none of them has proven anything yet, but if you think all five will crap out, you're out of your mind.
Try not to over think this.
Friday, May 27, 2016
Browns Showing Uncommon Sense For a Change
Hue Jackson having KMack invite all the alumni (notably Bernie Kosar) to camp was a refreshing change. I'd call it "smart", but it's really more about common sense. Duh.
Earnest Byner coaching the running backs? Oh HELL yes! That guy was everyman. He wasn't big, or even fast---yet some how, some way, he just sort of found a way. Over and over and over again.
Imagine what Earnest would have done with the physical gifts of a Crowell or Johnson. Can you think of a better guy to coax the last drop of performance out of their potentials?
Even including Josh McCown, who could be a better advisor for young quarterbacks than Kosar? He might even have given Hue Jackson a new idea or two, for that matter!
Don't you just know Greg Pruitt had a thing or two to offer Duke Johnson?
Hue Jackson just keeps impressing me. Conversely, he can't help showing up every previous regime. Why the hell did most of his predecessors make all these guys feel unwelcome?
Well...Hue rightfully gets all the credit, but the front office rates a hat-tip here. This is one thing they could have stepped on; Hue doesn't have authority here.
Somebody gave the Browns off season a "D". They didn't do their homework. I won't grade them. I'm sending them to summer school.
I know that three of the guys they lost were really good players, but to hear some of these guys talk, you'd think there were twice as many, in their primes, and all future Hall of Famers.
Speaking of which, the first and foremost alum who needs to hang out around here is Clay Matthews.
That guy sitting around shooting the bull with Ogbah, Mingo (maybe Mongo now😉), Orchard and company is almost scary.
Matthews should be in the Hall. Compare his stats to Lawrence Taylor's some time. But he was just a Brown. Hey Clay! Don't be a stranger ok? Come see your nephew!
Earnest Byner coaching the running backs? Oh HELL yes! That guy was everyman. He wasn't big, or even fast---yet some how, some way, he just sort of found a way. Over and over and over again.
Imagine what Earnest would have done with the physical gifts of a Crowell or Johnson. Can you think of a better guy to coax the last drop of performance out of their potentials?
Even including Josh McCown, who could be a better advisor for young quarterbacks than Kosar? He might even have given Hue Jackson a new idea or two, for that matter!
Don't you just know Greg Pruitt had a thing or two to offer Duke Johnson?
Hue Jackson just keeps impressing me. Conversely, he can't help showing up every previous regime. Why the hell did most of his predecessors make all these guys feel unwelcome?
Well...Hue rightfully gets all the credit, but the front office rates a hat-tip here. This is one thing they could have stepped on; Hue doesn't have authority here.
Somebody gave the Browns off season a "D". They didn't do their homework. I won't grade them. I'm sending them to summer school.
I know that three of the guys they lost were really good players, but to hear some of these guys talk, you'd think there were twice as many, in their primes, and all future Hall of Famers.
Speaking of which, the first and foremost alum who needs to hang out around here is Clay Matthews.
That guy sitting around shooting the bull with Ogbah, Mingo (maybe Mongo now😉), Orchard and company is almost scary.
Matthews should be in the Hall. Compare his stats to Lawrence Taylor's some time. But he was just a Brown. Hey Clay! Don't be a stranger ok? Come see your nephew!
Wednesday, May 25, 2016
It's Still Not Rocket Science.
The release of Brian Hartline has unleashed a slew of complex theorizationalizing by everybody who thinks they have a clue about analytics.
It was about his age and injuries, and about at least two and maybe four guys on the roster who can do what he does.
Young guys, two of which are under contract for four years.
Some writers always think that one old veteran receiver is critical. No it's not. Receivers aren't quarterbacks or cornerbacks.
That's why Andrew Hawkins could be next. He's a really good and reliable player when healthy, but he's hit the big three-oh and he's getting dinged up too.
Hue Jackson wont keep guys just because he knows them.
Hue Jackson almost certainly had Terrelle Pryor penciled in as soon as he signed his contract.
They don't consider it critical to have a veteran wide receiver to be a role model. The new guys are young, but they're not children. And wide receivers aren't quarterbacks.
Brian Hartline won't be out of work for long. I wish him all the best.
It was about his age and injuries, and about at least two and maybe four guys on the roster who can do what he does.
Young guys, two of which are under contract for four years.
Some writers always think that one old veteran receiver is critical. No it's not. Receivers aren't quarterbacks or cornerbacks.
That's why Andrew Hawkins could be next. He's a really good and reliable player when healthy, but he's hit the big three-oh and he's getting dinged up too.
Hue Jackson wont keep guys just because he knows them.
Hue Jackson almost certainly had Terrelle Pryor penciled in as soon as he signed his contract.
They don't consider it critical to have a veteran wide receiver to be a role model. The new guys are young, but they're not children. And wide receivers aren't quarterbacks.
Brian Hartline won't be out of work for long. I wish him all the best.
Sunday, May 22, 2016
Curb Your Enthusiasm, Grasshopper
It's getting harder and harder to curb my enthusiasm. I know I'm supposed to, because all the wise sages tell me I should, and one of the wisest predicted an 0-16 season.
I'm reminded daily that May is the month of irrational optimism for all NFL teams.
Let's see: Long way to go. Way too early. Shorts and helmets. Holes. Shambles.
The problem for me, however, is that this year, that just doesn't line up with the projected, or even known, facts. It just sounds to any legitimate analyst like a bunch of people being cautious and trying to sound mature.
To be sure, there are a number of negatives and question marks:
1: The Division, which includes two top contenders. Well established, veteran teams, loaded with talent.
2: Uncertainty at quarterback. Every time we hear good things about RG3, it's quickly followed by discouraging reports. McCown proved a lot last season, but was injured for much of the season. Rodney Kesslerfield is a rookie.
3: Inexperience. That's the umbrella word here: It's not just the inexperience of all the rookies, but of Pryor, veterans who were brought in and haven't worked in this system or with these teammates.
4: More uncertainty: Erving has a lot to prove. Pryor is no sure thing. How good will the new right tackle be? How much will Gipson's ballhawking be missed?
I'm sure I could find more negative stuff here, some of which the super-mature sages missed "Enthusiasm you must curb mm"
Still, with Hue Jackson and the well-proven old hands he brought here with him running things, it's hard to convince myself that the team won't be prepared or sensibly managed this time.
I am incapable of even considering history as far as this draft is concerned. I can't force myself to expect Corey Coleman not to be as advertised, or Ogbah, Nassib, or others. Not to give the new guys a clean slate is too irrational for me.
The importance of a quarterback is undeniable, but as demonstrated in the last Superbowl, it's not all there is.
To hear these guys on NFL Radio talk, the Ravens will contend again this season because Joe Flacco is back.
It's insanity. First, Joe Flacco is very good, but not on par with Big Ben. Second, Andy Dalton had an outstanding season, but this was substantially because of superior receivers, blockers, the running game, and defense.
Why do they think Flacco will kick ass without ANY of that? Why do they even think he's much better than Dalton? When did the other twenty one guys stop mattering, and Flacco achieve godhood?
Why can't RG3 or another Browns quarterback not do well with the weapons he will have here? Is Andy Dalton better? Won't Dalton have Green and guys named Joe?
It's hyperbole. Mysticism. A quarterback who can put a whole team on his back is extremely rare, and the only two of those in this division are Big Ben and......RG3.
The rest is the other twenty one players!
The Browns other twenty one are better than the Ravens' almost everywhere! They might have overtaken the Bengals at wide receiver and on the defensive line. They've got the Steelers beat at tight end and outside linebacker...and defensive line too, for that matter.
The Browns have the best left tackle in football. Two top ten guards. A head coach who got the train wreck Raiders to 8-8 without a quarterback and got Andy Dalton into the top five.
Let's start scanning position by position in the AFC North: Second best tight end. Third best wide receiver. No worse than the third best offensive line. Probably the best wide receiver depth. Second best front seven, and a top two secondary.
What is Yoda seeing that I can't see? Why is he telling me it's all an illusion?
And those questions: Ultimately, they will be answered, and sometimes we will like those answers.
Some of those questions shouldn't be asked. Can Isaiah Crowell get it together? He HAS it together! How can you bash the guy for running into his blocker's backs when he's already surrounded and there's no daylight anywhere? How can you ignore the fact that he never ran to the strong side until game twelve? How can you first blame him for getting swarmed under the first twelve games, then ignore the most recent four?
How can you blame Paul Kruger for not getting to the quarterback when he wasn't rushing him?
Why won't you listen to what Bill Polian said about the Ryan (Pettine) defense and inexperienced young players? Or what the players themselves said?
Why can't you see that Nate Orchard got all three of his sacks in the last four games?
If Josh McCown came from a crappy 2014 and played at an elite level in 2015, don't you think RG3 can do the same under Hue Jackson with a whole new wide receiver corps?
I'm sorry, Yoda. I can only go by what I see. I see talent and coaching. I see efficiency and competence.
You will probably feel validated when this team plays the Bengals and Steelers, but be "pleasantly surprised" when they upset the Ravens and several other teams.
Yes, it's early, but some of us can't turn our brains off. Yes, we haven't seen anything yet, but it's natural to make educated guesses based on talent and production.
Why do we read scouting reports? We haven't seen any of those guys play in the NFL yet! Slow down! Don't get excited!
Anyway, I'll take four wins. I expect third in the Division, however. You should move to Baltimore and tell the Ravens fans to curb their enthusiasm.
I'm reminded daily that May is the month of irrational optimism for all NFL teams.
Let's see: Long way to go. Way too early. Shorts and helmets. Holes. Shambles.
The problem for me, however, is that this year, that just doesn't line up with the projected, or even known, facts. It just sounds to any legitimate analyst like a bunch of people being cautious and trying to sound mature.
To be sure, there are a number of negatives and question marks:
1: The Division, which includes two top contenders. Well established, veteran teams, loaded with talent.
2: Uncertainty at quarterback. Every time we hear good things about RG3, it's quickly followed by discouraging reports. McCown proved a lot last season, but was injured for much of the season. Rodney Kesslerfield is a rookie.
3: Inexperience. That's the umbrella word here: It's not just the inexperience of all the rookies, but of Pryor, veterans who were brought in and haven't worked in this system or with these teammates.
4: More uncertainty: Erving has a lot to prove. Pryor is no sure thing. How good will the new right tackle be? How much will Gipson's ballhawking be missed?
I'm sure I could find more negative stuff here, some of which the super-mature sages missed "Enthusiasm you must curb mm"
Still, with Hue Jackson and the well-proven old hands he brought here with him running things, it's hard to convince myself that the team won't be prepared or sensibly managed this time.
I am incapable of even considering history as far as this draft is concerned. I can't force myself to expect Corey Coleman not to be as advertised, or Ogbah, Nassib, or others. Not to give the new guys a clean slate is too irrational for me.
The importance of a quarterback is undeniable, but as demonstrated in the last Superbowl, it's not all there is.
To hear these guys on NFL Radio talk, the Ravens will contend again this season because Joe Flacco is back.
It's insanity. First, Joe Flacco is very good, but not on par with Big Ben. Second, Andy Dalton had an outstanding season, but this was substantially because of superior receivers, blockers, the running game, and defense.
Why do they think Flacco will kick ass without ANY of that? Why do they even think he's much better than Dalton? When did the other twenty one guys stop mattering, and Flacco achieve godhood?
Why can't RG3 or another Browns quarterback not do well with the weapons he will have here? Is Andy Dalton better? Won't Dalton have Green and guys named Joe?
It's hyperbole. Mysticism. A quarterback who can put a whole team on his back is extremely rare, and the only two of those in this division are Big Ben and......RG3.
The rest is the other twenty one players!
The Browns other twenty one are better than the Ravens' almost everywhere! They might have overtaken the Bengals at wide receiver and on the defensive line. They've got the Steelers beat at tight end and outside linebacker...and defensive line too, for that matter.
The Browns have the best left tackle in football. Two top ten guards. A head coach who got the train wreck Raiders to 8-8 without a quarterback and got Andy Dalton into the top five.
Let's start scanning position by position in the AFC North: Second best tight end. Third best wide receiver. No worse than the third best offensive line. Probably the best wide receiver depth. Second best front seven, and a top two secondary.
What is Yoda seeing that I can't see? Why is he telling me it's all an illusion?
And those questions: Ultimately, they will be answered, and sometimes we will like those answers.
Some of those questions shouldn't be asked. Can Isaiah Crowell get it together? He HAS it together! How can you bash the guy for running into his blocker's backs when he's already surrounded and there's no daylight anywhere? How can you ignore the fact that he never ran to the strong side until game twelve? How can you first blame him for getting swarmed under the first twelve games, then ignore the most recent four?
How can you blame Paul Kruger for not getting to the quarterback when he wasn't rushing him?
Why won't you listen to what Bill Polian said about the Ryan (Pettine) defense and inexperienced young players? Or what the players themselves said?
Why can't you see that Nate Orchard got all three of his sacks in the last four games?
If Josh McCown came from a crappy 2014 and played at an elite level in 2015, don't you think RG3 can do the same under Hue Jackson with a whole new wide receiver corps?
I'm sorry, Yoda. I can only go by what I see. I see talent and coaching. I see efficiency and competence.
You will probably feel validated when this team plays the Bengals and Steelers, but be "pleasantly surprised" when they upset the Ravens and several other teams.
Yes, it's early, but some of us can't turn our brains off. Yes, we haven't seen anything yet, but it's natural to make educated guesses based on talent and production.
Why do we read scouting reports? We haven't seen any of those guys play in the NFL yet! Slow down! Don't get excited!
Anyway, I'll take four wins. I expect third in the Division, however. You should move to Baltimore and tell the Ravens fans to curb their enthusiasm.
Saturday, May 21, 2016
Browns Counteranalysis: Mindless Mantras
The Cleveland Browns just drafted fourteen players, and signed twelve undrafted free agents. The veteran free agents they signed or acquired via trade include a starting safety, inside linebacker, cornerback, and quarterback. In all, there are thirty one to thirty three new players on this roster.
Naturally, a bunch of these guys won't make it to the final cut, but at least eighteen to twenty of them will, including most or all of the draft picks.
The veteran free agents aren't superstars, and all have some question marks or warts, but they've all started and played well in the NFL. It would be a stretch to call any of them below average.
After the free agent losses, and before the draft, rightly and wrongly, the "holes" on the extant roster were right tackle, tight end depth, wide receiver, quarterback, passrusher, and really not much else. I said, not much else.
Three or four players, including two former starters, will compete for right tackle. Four wide receivers and a tight end were drafted, and Pryor is a (literally) huge wild card. An undrafted tight end named Holtz will probably make the final roster. Nassib and Ogbah are two excellent passrushers, and Mingo returns at 255 lbs.
Two new safeties. Two new outside cornerbacks. FOUR new inside linebackers.
As many as TEN of these new players will start. Three to five more will be rotational/situational players.
Now, when I read Bill Barnwell's excellent and thorough analysis of the Browns' off season, near the end, he just had to go and spoil it:
Under "what's next?", Bill just had to say "considering all the remaining holes they have to fill--".
This is a conditioned reflex, you know? Because...well, what holes!?
This guy writes several paragraphs itemizing all these moves, and somehow none of it registered on his consciousness.
I want somebody to give me one position which hasn't been addressed.
Running back? Stop it. Quarterback? Well okay, you can doubt RG3 and Kessler, but McCown is still here...you can't describe quarterback as a hole.
Center? Okay question Erving, I can't blame you. But there are two other quality inside linemen who could play center, and it's not a "hole".
Right tackle? Most likely, the team takes a step back there, but they'll have a competent starter there by game one.
Did the loss of Gipson create a hole? NO. His replacements were already on the roster. Even if nobody plays as well as Gipson, they'll all certainly play well enough.
Where are these mysterious holes you keep mentioning? I can't see them.
There is still room for improvement, but phrases like "all the holes they still have to fill" are sounding dumber every day. It's a hollow, obsolete mantra. We say it or write it simply because we've been repeating it every year for a decade, and it has nothing to do with reality any more.
Think. Just think.
Naturally, a bunch of these guys won't make it to the final cut, but at least eighteen to twenty of them will, including most or all of the draft picks.
The veteran free agents aren't superstars, and all have some question marks or warts, but they've all started and played well in the NFL. It would be a stretch to call any of them below average.
After the free agent losses, and before the draft, rightly and wrongly, the "holes" on the extant roster were right tackle, tight end depth, wide receiver, quarterback, passrusher, and really not much else. I said, not much else.
Three or four players, including two former starters, will compete for right tackle. Four wide receivers and a tight end were drafted, and Pryor is a (literally) huge wild card. An undrafted tight end named Holtz will probably make the final roster. Nassib and Ogbah are two excellent passrushers, and Mingo returns at 255 lbs.
Two new safeties. Two new outside cornerbacks. FOUR new inside linebackers.
As many as TEN of these new players will start. Three to five more will be rotational/situational players.
Now, when I read Bill Barnwell's excellent and thorough analysis of the Browns' off season, near the end, he just had to go and spoil it:
Under "what's next?", Bill just had to say "considering all the remaining holes they have to fill--".
This is a conditioned reflex, you know? Because...well, what holes!?
This guy writes several paragraphs itemizing all these moves, and somehow none of it registered on his consciousness.
I want somebody to give me one position which hasn't been addressed.
Running back? Stop it. Quarterback? Well okay, you can doubt RG3 and Kessler, but McCown is still here...you can't describe quarterback as a hole.
Center? Okay question Erving, I can't blame you. But there are two other quality inside linemen who could play center, and it's not a "hole".
Right tackle? Most likely, the team takes a step back there, but they'll have a competent starter there by game one.
Did the loss of Gipson create a hole? NO. His replacements were already on the roster. Even if nobody plays as well as Gipson, they'll all certainly play well enough.
Where are these mysterious holes you keep mentioning? I can't see them.
There is still room for improvement, but phrases like "all the holes they still have to fill" are sounding dumber every day. It's a hollow, obsolete mantra. We say it or write it simply because we've been repeating it every year for a decade, and it has nothing to do with reality any more.
Think. Just think.
Friday, May 20, 2016
Browns Sleepers, Nappers, and Efficiency
Everybody knows about Duke Johnson, Joe Haden, and Joe Thomas.
Hopes are justifiably high for Ogbah and Corey Coleman. Danny Shelton wasn't great, but should be pretty good now.
But here are some guys that I believe could surprise a lot of you. Some, you know can be pretty good, but could be pretty great instead. Others, you think can make an impact in a year or two, but can get there way ahead of schedule. A couple, you have given up on. A few, you misunderstand.
First, Terrell Pryor. Yeah I know I'm the fan club, so I won't repeat myself again. I'll just add that he can also save a roster spot as the emergency quarterback and do some wildcat stuff yaddayadda.
Next, Ibraheim Campbell. He's labelled a strong safety, but he can play free. I'm not even sure about Ray Horton's coverage scheme, but if it's cover two, you people need to shut up with the free and strong stuff anyway.
Campbell's scouting reports were loaded with errors, because he can cover almost like a cornerback, and has really good ball skills. He has an excellent shot at starting in the base defense, and might even make us forget Gipson.
Carl Nassib is probably here to play left defensive end. We see that he's a little light for that, because in Horton's defense he has to engage the right tackle a lot and will get chipped.
So we expect him to be a situational guy in 16 and not do much until 17, when he's bigger and stronger.
But he's a skinny 277 lbs on a 6'7" frame. He has a reach advantage on most tackles, and can use that to keep them off him. Because of that frame, he could weigh 290 by pre-season. That's like Joe Haden adding like three pounds. He's TEN INCHES TALLER than Joe, see?
He's not technically refined yet, so I'm not nominating him for the Pro Bowl. I'm just saying that the left defensive end rotation could be Bryant and Nassib, right away.
Derrick Kindred is labelled a free safety. I myself called him a box or strong safety and knocked him in coverage. But he could be another Campbell.
This guy played a whole season with a broken collarbone. This obviously hampered his ability to tackle, but must have muffled him in coverage as well. I'm amazed he could even use that arm! I really doubt he could elevate that hand much above his own helmet. What might he have done with both arms? We're about to find out.
I can make this one a twofer: Scooby Wright and Joe Schobert. I won't go over an old entry again. Both of these guys are as good or better than Dansby at stopping the run.
We can expect to see two more experienced players to man inside linebacker this season, but there will be a rotation and Schobert, if not Wright, will be part of it, especially on running downs.
If somebody is injured, inside linebacker won't miss a beat.
Gilbert has to be listed here. He's had two seasons, and has been a bust to this point. This is his last chance, and he knows it.
Ray Horton was a defensive back. The undrafted Gipson started his career under him. No cornerback in the NFL has more physical talent than this guy right here.
If Gilbert's light goes on in 2016, the change will be sudden. He will start opposite Haden, period, and it will give the Browns a truly elite cornerback tandem.
I said IF, and MIGHT.
Cameron Erving could be better than Alex Mack, who PPF rated about average last season.
In college, he moved from left tackle to center, and was top notch at both positions.
LeCharles Bentley is about the only guy any of us needs to hear talk about Cameron Erving. His footwork was bad, and it screwed up his balance, and it can be FIXED.
Erving had first round grades and was the consensus best center in his draft. He has yet to play a down at center in the NFL.
He knows exactly what he's up against now, and exactly what he did wrong last season. If you buried him based on his rookie season, you should be sterilized before you can contaminate the gene pool further.
Nate Orchard has to be mentioned here. When did he become an asterisk? He wasn't far off Ogbah in his scouting report, and really started bringing it at the tail end of his rookie season.
People are saying of Ogbah "now we finally got a pass rusher". No, because we already HAD one! Quit dissing ma man Nate!
And Paul Kruger too! He couldn't rush the passer from coverage, okay? Let him do his thing and he might get twelve sacks again.
That's especially true if Ogbah and Orchard are also coming...
And Mingo! This is Mingo 2.0 the pumped up 255 pounder!
What the hell, let's just do like I did with Joe and Scooby and say ALL the outside linebackers might be instantly awesome in 2016.
I can't fathom the negativity here! It's Ray Horton! This system is not complicated, and the round pegs fit in the round holes! The pass rush isn't a project! It's here! It's already here for crying out loud!
And by the way, Ogbah is even faster than Mingo how 'bout that?
I've seen tapes on that guy now (Film Room). No, he's not a finished product, but he's phenomenally strong! Pushing 300 lb offensive linemen around. I love how he uses his arms and hands. Rips, swims; He only needs a little crack, and the blocker is just finished. He can do that to pros, right now. He looked like the 260 lb Clay Matthews. This guy will never need to get very cute or tricky. Watch out for this guy, and I mean right tf now.
I must explain: A common "negative" trait among passrushers is "lack of bend", meaning they can't get low to the ground as they turn a corner to get behind an offensive tackle. This is true of Ogbah and Nassib.
But it's not really a negative. This is one way passrushers who rely on speed get by taller and stronger blockers.
But Ogbah isn't that type of passrusher. His lack of "bend" is offset by his physical strength (and reach). He doesn't HAVE to bend.
In choosing Ogbah and Nassib, Ray Horton might be saying something here:
Both are (comparatively) straight line rushers who don't need space. They're much SAFER than a guy who runs in a half circle and bends, because they don't open up gaps for the quarterback to scramble through.
In fact, if an offense sees this tendency of a defensive end or outside linebacker to try to run around behind the tackle, they will target that gap with runs.
Space: Unlike the other 3-4 OLB prospects, Ogbah doesn't need to avoid the tackle. He tries to either scrape by him, or bull rush him. This is more reliable.
Benders are high risk. More often than not, they're routed completely out of the play, and sometimes get driven face down into the turf. Beaten offensive linemen often fall on top of them accidentally on purpose. Ask Ross Tucker! He did that a lot!
And oh yeah: If he's a Cleveland Brown, it's okay for the tackle to just tackle him.
Ogbah might get stonewalled, but will be standing there, in the gap, and in position to pursue as well. Like Clay Matthews.
I'm sorry I just need to gush some more about this guy: Here is how he tries to scrape by: Usually, he'll fire his hands out to jolt the tackle's pads to get him a tad off-balance, then shoot close by him on one side or the other.
He's a natural at using leverage, as he rotates his shoulders to get his left arm past the tackle's left pad or vice-versa. (Remember the punch; the tackle is dancing and trying to reset his feet to anchor, so his pads remain square).
Ogbah uses that arm as a wedge, and tries to follow it. The two things he does from there are what Matthews did:
The rip puts his bicep under the tackle's arm pit and lifts that side of his body up as he continues driving and straightens. Pro or college, you can't beat this. If a passrusher gets you in this position, you lose.
The swim isn't really exactly that, but it ends like that. He reaches behind the tackle's back and swings his arm like a bar to complete his penetration.
A good tackle can partly recover from this by turning with him and trying to push him off course (or fall on his legs), but he's still beaten and chasing a much, much faster guy.
NFL tackles will, of course, get their hands on Ogbah first sometimes, but as an outside linebacker coming from a few feet further away and sometimes a steeper angle, Ogbah can make that hard to time, as he can accelerate and lean forward and stuff to beat him to the punch.
Ah! Mingo 1.0 was a bender! There's an example! Kimerion Wimbley was another one. Von Miller too. But Orchard, Kruger, and Ogbah are not. This will help the run defense.
Drango could be a semi-sleeper. I've read conflicting scouting reports on him. He's probably not going to take over a guard slot sans an injury, but might be tried at right tackle.
Pierre Desir is another guy. Given the current roster, he may not play safety except situationally, but he could sneak in here as an impact player in his third season.
Desir is slow for a cornerback, but can be effective depending on matchup and scheme. He has the tools for zone, and can match up with tall receivers in man.
Slower corners can make up for their lack of speed by bumping and jostling guys they're covering so that they can't get up to full speed.
Keep this in context: Desir vs Pryor or Gordon would be a tragic mismatch. That's right. Pryor.
Xavier Cooper. This is a repeat, but I haven't extolled X's virtues for a long time so I'll indulge myself again now:
His most likely slot is right defensive end. Really, that's tackle in this defense because he's between the weakside tackle and guard.
Cooper's first step is like Micheal Dean Perry's. He was asked to read and react in Pettine's defense. In Horton's defense, he is allowed to fire into gaps and attack.
Michael Dean was much shorter, with disproportionately short arms. He was just so damn quick that it didn't matter-they couldn't get their hands on him before he was under their pads and half way by them.
Cooper doesn't have the same leverage, but has a great punch. Less long speed, but more reach and similar short area quickness.
This guy can be really, really disruptive. In 2016. You just watch.
Danny Shelton will probably be called a nose tackle but won't really be one, because he'll line up in the strong side guard-tackle gap.
Well...Ray will probably have him shaded to the center and trying to knock him on his butt, so yeah ok call him a nose tackle.
The right guard will have to cover several feet to help the center, and that won't be optional. Shelton, despite his ponderous bulk, is quick enough to push the center back, at least a little, before he has to deal with the guard.
This moves the line back and shrinks the pocket vertically, which in turn helps the outside passrushers, who can loop deeper when they know the quarterback can't escape forward.
He can split double teams and bulldoze his way to quarterbacks or reroute running backs. He will keep the right guard away from Bryant/Nassib and the inside linebackers. The right tackle will have to take the left defensive end one-on-one and in space. The tight end can chip, but only from the outside. And if he does that, what about Ogbah, Orchard, Mingo, or Kruger?
Poyer is turning into a terrific safety. He frankly outperformed Gipson throughout pre-season last year.
During the season, he got burned several times, but much more at cornerback than at safety.
I can't find the safety they signed from the Texans on this roster, but he was a second round pick and a long-time starter. I know he got benched in Texas, but he could make up for it in 2016.
The cornerback they got in the draft day trade from Miami is also good at worst, but very talented. Like the other guy, he's a veteran and will compete for number two cornerback.
I wish the Team Page at NFL.com would keep the roster current, because I can't remember all these names.
Anyway now that I review all this, I probably should have just listed defense, offensive line, and Terrell Pryor...
Oh yeah tight end: Seth DeValve should be a monster at that position, not just next season, but immediately.
They're not about to replace Gary Barnidge, but DeValve should be second on the depth chart by game one, and a receiver is a receiver, and Hue will use two tight ends sometimes, even in the Baylor.
Hue seems to be neck deep in pass-catchers now.
Oh! Ricardo Lewis needs to be listed here. I was reluctant to mention him because of his many, many drops, but if he fixes his hands, he can be a playmaking stud.
The potential at wide receiver is three deep threats. Think about this.
Naturally, not all these guys will match their potentials in 2016, and some, like Lewis, are longshots.
But just look at the competition the new staff and front office have created here! It's truly impressive.
And Hue is making sure everybody gets their chances (reps) by running split practices. That's impressive too.
Clearly, this team will be much better prepared than any of the preceding teams were. But also, the coaches are far less likely to release the wrong players as they trim the roster.
The efficiency is...unprecedented. I have to wonder how much Paul DePodesta had to do with this. The players getting twice the reps, the staff twice the information (data) on which to make roster decisions.
Ohmmm...Ohmmm...Steelers. Bengals. Ok I'm better now. I was starting to get optimistic.
THIS JUST IN: Cody Kessler! I finally saw extensive (unedited) film on him from various sources, and some of those scouting reports were truly fulla crap.
No I'm not an expert, but I know when I see a really athletic guy who can throw while running (or jumping in the air for that matter). And I know a strong enough arm when I see it too.
And I kept looking for an example of his getting rattled by pressure and couldn't find it. Now I know some of what Hue Jackson saw.
I also saw Chip Bayliss being fulla crap again, predicting that Kessler would start game one over RG3. That was dumb, because as I keep repeating, Hue will serve no quarterback before his time, and no rookie is truly ready.
Chip: The Browns don't expect to overtake the Steelers and Bengals with a team full of rookies. RG3 will probably be better, and therefore will probably start.
But I digress: Add Kessler to this list. This guy might be really special down the road, and could indeed play in 2016 when RG3 gets hurt.
Hopes are justifiably high for Ogbah and Corey Coleman. Danny Shelton wasn't great, but should be pretty good now.
But here are some guys that I believe could surprise a lot of you. Some, you know can be pretty good, but could be pretty great instead. Others, you think can make an impact in a year or two, but can get there way ahead of schedule. A couple, you have given up on. A few, you misunderstand.
First, Terrell Pryor. Yeah I know I'm the fan club, so I won't repeat myself again. I'll just add that he can also save a roster spot as the emergency quarterback and do some wildcat stuff yaddayadda.
Next, Ibraheim Campbell. He's labelled a strong safety, but he can play free. I'm not even sure about Ray Horton's coverage scheme, but if it's cover two, you people need to shut up with the free and strong stuff anyway.
Campbell's scouting reports were loaded with errors, because he can cover almost like a cornerback, and has really good ball skills. He has an excellent shot at starting in the base defense, and might even make us forget Gipson.
Carl Nassib is probably here to play left defensive end. We see that he's a little light for that, because in Horton's defense he has to engage the right tackle a lot and will get chipped.
So we expect him to be a situational guy in 16 and not do much until 17, when he's bigger and stronger.
But he's a skinny 277 lbs on a 6'7" frame. He has a reach advantage on most tackles, and can use that to keep them off him. Because of that frame, he could weigh 290 by pre-season. That's like Joe Haden adding like three pounds. He's TEN INCHES TALLER than Joe, see?
He's not technically refined yet, so I'm not nominating him for the Pro Bowl. I'm just saying that the left defensive end rotation could be Bryant and Nassib, right away.
Derrick Kindred is labelled a free safety. I myself called him a box or strong safety and knocked him in coverage. But he could be another Campbell.
This guy played a whole season with a broken collarbone. This obviously hampered his ability to tackle, but must have muffled him in coverage as well. I'm amazed he could even use that arm! I really doubt he could elevate that hand much above his own helmet. What might he have done with both arms? We're about to find out.
I can make this one a twofer: Scooby Wright and Joe Schobert. I won't go over an old entry again. Both of these guys are as good or better than Dansby at stopping the run.
We can expect to see two more experienced players to man inside linebacker this season, but there will be a rotation and Schobert, if not Wright, will be part of it, especially on running downs.
If somebody is injured, inside linebacker won't miss a beat.
Gilbert has to be listed here. He's had two seasons, and has been a bust to this point. This is his last chance, and he knows it.
Ray Horton was a defensive back. The undrafted Gipson started his career under him. No cornerback in the NFL has more physical talent than this guy right here.
If Gilbert's light goes on in 2016, the change will be sudden. He will start opposite Haden, period, and it will give the Browns a truly elite cornerback tandem.
I said IF, and MIGHT.
Cameron Erving could be better than Alex Mack, who PPF rated about average last season.
In college, he moved from left tackle to center, and was top notch at both positions.
LeCharles Bentley is about the only guy any of us needs to hear talk about Cameron Erving. His footwork was bad, and it screwed up his balance, and it can be FIXED.
Erving had first round grades and was the consensus best center in his draft. He has yet to play a down at center in the NFL.
He knows exactly what he's up against now, and exactly what he did wrong last season. If you buried him based on his rookie season, you should be sterilized before you can contaminate the gene pool further.
Nate Orchard has to be mentioned here. When did he become an asterisk? He wasn't far off Ogbah in his scouting report, and really started bringing it at the tail end of his rookie season.
People are saying of Ogbah "now we finally got a pass rusher". No, because we already HAD one! Quit dissing ma man Nate!
And Paul Kruger too! He couldn't rush the passer from coverage, okay? Let him do his thing and he might get twelve sacks again.
That's especially true if Ogbah and Orchard are also coming...
And Mingo! This is Mingo 2.0 the pumped up 255 pounder!
What the hell, let's just do like I did with Joe and Scooby and say ALL the outside linebackers might be instantly awesome in 2016.
I can't fathom the negativity here! It's Ray Horton! This system is not complicated, and the round pegs fit in the round holes! The pass rush isn't a project! It's here! It's already here for crying out loud!
And by the way, Ogbah is even faster than Mingo how 'bout that?
I've seen tapes on that guy now (Film Room). No, he's not a finished product, but he's phenomenally strong! Pushing 300 lb offensive linemen around. I love how he uses his arms and hands. Rips, swims; He only needs a little crack, and the blocker is just finished. He can do that to pros, right now. He looked like the 260 lb Clay Matthews. This guy will never need to get very cute or tricky. Watch out for this guy, and I mean right tf now.
I must explain: A common "negative" trait among passrushers is "lack of bend", meaning they can't get low to the ground as they turn a corner to get behind an offensive tackle. This is true of Ogbah and Nassib.
But it's not really a negative. This is one way passrushers who rely on speed get by taller and stronger blockers.
But Ogbah isn't that type of passrusher. His lack of "bend" is offset by his physical strength (and reach). He doesn't HAVE to bend.
In choosing Ogbah and Nassib, Ray Horton might be saying something here:
Both are (comparatively) straight line rushers who don't need space. They're much SAFER than a guy who runs in a half circle and bends, because they don't open up gaps for the quarterback to scramble through.
In fact, if an offense sees this tendency of a defensive end or outside linebacker to try to run around behind the tackle, they will target that gap with runs.
Space: Unlike the other 3-4 OLB prospects, Ogbah doesn't need to avoid the tackle. He tries to either scrape by him, or bull rush him. This is more reliable.
Benders are high risk. More often than not, they're routed completely out of the play, and sometimes get driven face down into the turf. Beaten offensive linemen often fall on top of them accidentally on purpose. Ask Ross Tucker! He did that a lot!
And oh yeah: If he's a Cleveland Brown, it's okay for the tackle to just tackle him.
Ogbah might get stonewalled, but will be standing there, in the gap, and in position to pursue as well. Like Clay Matthews.
I'm sorry I just need to gush some more about this guy: Here is how he tries to scrape by: Usually, he'll fire his hands out to jolt the tackle's pads to get him a tad off-balance, then shoot close by him on one side or the other.
He's a natural at using leverage, as he rotates his shoulders to get his left arm past the tackle's left pad or vice-versa. (Remember the punch; the tackle is dancing and trying to reset his feet to anchor, so his pads remain square).
Ogbah uses that arm as a wedge, and tries to follow it. The two things he does from there are what Matthews did:
The rip puts his bicep under the tackle's arm pit and lifts that side of his body up as he continues driving and straightens. Pro or college, you can't beat this. If a passrusher gets you in this position, you lose.
The swim isn't really exactly that, but it ends like that. He reaches behind the tackle's back and swings his arm like a bar to complete his penetration.
A good tackle can partly recover from this by turning with him and trying to push him off course (or fall on his legs), but he's still beaten and chasing a much, much faster guy.
NFL tackles will, of course, get their hands on Ogbah first sometimes, but as an outside linebacker coming from a few feet further away and sometimes a steeper angle, Ogbah can make that hard to time, as he can accelerate and lean forward and stuff to beat him to the punch.
Ah! Mingo 1.0 was a bender! There's an example! Kimerion Wimbley was another one. Von Miller too. But Orchard, Kruger, and Ogbah are not. This will help the run defense.
Drango could be a semi-sleeper. I've read conflicting scouting reports on him. He's probably not going to take over a guard slot sans an injury, but might be tried at right tackle.
Pierre Desir is another guy. Given the current roster, he may not play safety except situationally, but he could sneak in here as an impact player in his third season.
Desir is slow for a cornerback, but can be effective depending on matchup and scheme. He has the tools for zone, and can match up with tall receivers in man.
Slower corners can make up for their lack of speed by bumping and jostling guys they're covering so that they can't get up to full speed.
Keep this in context: Desir vs Pryor or Gordon would be a tragic mismatch. That's right. Pryor.
Xavier Cooper. This is a repeat, but I haven't extolled X's virtues for a long time so I'll indulge myself again now:
His most likely slot is right defensive end. Really, that's tackle in this defense because he's between the weakside tackle and guard.
Cooper's first step is like Micheal Dean Perry's. He was asked to read and react in Pettine's defense. In Horton's defense, he is allowed to fire into gaps and attack.
Michael Dean was much shorter, with disproportionately short arms. He was just so damn quick that it didn't matter-they couldn't get their hands on him before he was under their pads and half way by them.
Cooper doesn't have the same leverage, but has a great punch. Less long speed, but more reach and similar short area quickness.
This guy can be really, really disruptive. In 2016. You just watch.
Danny Shelton will probably be called a nose tackle but won't really be one, because he'll line up in the strong side guard-tackle gap.
Well...Ray will probably have him shaded to the center and trying to knock him on his butt, so yeah ok call him a nose tackle.
The right guard will have to cover several feet to help the center, and that won't be optional. Shelton, despite his ponderous bulk, is quick enough to push the center back, at least a little, before he has to deal with the guard.
This moves the line back and shrinks the pocket vertically, which in turn helps the outside passrushers, who can loop deeper when they know the quarterback can't escape forward.
He can split double teams and bulldoze his way to quarterbacks or reroute running backs. He will keep the right guard away from Bryant/Nassib and the inside linebackers. The right tackle will have to take the left defensive end one-on-one and in space. The tight end can chip, but only from the outside. And if he does that, what about Ogbah, Orchard, Mingo, or Kruger?
Poyer is turning into a terrific safety. He frankly outperformed Gipson throughout pre-season last year.
During the season, he got burned several times, but much more at cornerback than at safety.
I can't find the safety they signed from the Texans on this roster, but he was a second round pick and a long-time starter. I know he got benched in Texas, but he could make up for it in 2016.
The cornerback they got in the draft day trade from Miami is also good at worst, but very talented. Like the other guy, he's a veteran and will compete for number two cornerback.
I wish the Team Page at NFL.com would keep the roster current, because I can't remember all these names.
Anyway now that I review all this, I probably should have just listed defense, offensive line, and Terrell Pryor...
Oh yeah tight end: Seth DeValve should be a monster at that position, not just next season, but immediately.
They're not about to replace Gary Barnidge, but DeValve should be second on the depth chart by game one, and a receiver is a receiver, and Hue will use two tight ends sometimes, even in the Baylor.
Hue seems to be neck deep in pass-catchers now.
Oh! Ricardo Lewis needs to be listed here. I was reluctant to mention him because of his many, many drops, but if he fixes his hands, he can be a playmaking stud.
The potential at wide receiver is three deep threats. Think about this.
Naturally, not all these guys will match their potentials in 2016, and some, like Lewis, are longshots.
But just look at the competition the new staff and front office have created here! It's truly impressive.
And Hue is making sure everybody gets their chances (reps) by running split practices. That's impressive too.
Clearly, this team will be much better prepared than any of the preceding teams were. But also, the coaches are far less likely to release the wrong players as they trim the roster.
The efficiency is...unprecedented. I have to wonder how much Paul DePodesta had to do with this. The players getting twice the reps, the staff twice the information (data) on which to make roster decisions.
Ohmmm...Ohmmm...Steelers. Bengals. Ok I'm better now. I was starting to get optimistic.
THIS JUST IN: Cody Kessler! I finally saw extensive (unedited) film on him from various sources, and some of those scouting reports were truly fulla crap.
No I'm not an expert, but I know when I see a really athletic guy who can throw while running (or jumping in the air for that matter). And I know a strong enough arm when I see it too.
And I kept looking for an example of his getting rattled by pressure and couldn't find it. Now I know some of what Hue Jackson saw.
I also saw Chip Bayliss being fulla crap again, predicting that Kessler would start game one over RG3. That was dumb, because as I keep repeating, Hue will serve no quarterback before his time, and no rookie is truly ready.
Chip: The Browns don't expect to overtake the Steelers and Bengals with a team full of rookies. RG3 will probably be better, and therefore will probably start.
But I digress: Add Kessler to this list. This guy might be really special down the road, and could indeed play in 2016 when RG3 gets hurt.
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