Geno Smith now gets a private workout for the Browns. Don't panic, people! It could only mean that they'll draft him at number six! Hahaha! ...ooh, you kiss your mother with that mouth? Take a pill!
Seriously, you don't know he's not franchise material! You just know that a lot of people have said he might not be! You read and hear this stuff, and the next thing I know I hear you calling in to NFL Radio regurgitating what you just heard and pretending you thought it up yourself!
Admit it!
And you regurgitate other stuff from ancient history: "If you miss on a quarterback that high you set your franchise back for years."
I guess you slept through the terms of the new CBA. You see, this is no longer true. Teams are no longer forced to pay a massive, huge premium for drafted quarterbacks. Before, drafting Smith at number six would have meant you've got to play him a quadrillion dollars, or at least maybe 15-20% of your salary cap.
If he failed, now you probably have to do it again: Draft another one high and pay him a quadrillion dollars too. The real pain is that the one that fell on his face makes too much money, and you have to dump him, and eat some guaranteed ("dead") money, so he's still keeping you from signing good players after he's gone. You go to salary-cap hell!
Now, a sixth overall quarterback gets basicly the same contract as a sixth overall guard or OLB or whatever. If he fails, it doesn't set you back any further financially than if any other player fails.
Naturally, if you blow a sixth overall pick, that hurts. You had better get an impact player there.
However, you need to be objective, and consider risk/reward here: He's a quarterback. If he succeeds, you could win the Superbowl because of him. If any other position player, including running back or wide reciever, succeeds, you might just get to the playoffs and lose immediately because your quarterback doesn't come through.
If the slotted, reasonably-priced quarterback fails, it's no more harmful in the long run than if an Ansah or a Warmack suffers a carreer-ending injury. It's bad, but you can recover-sometimes on one year. Further, if the quarterback isn't ready now, he's not being paid too much to understudy for awhile.
And what are the odds? Well, I found out that during Geno Smith's five-game "collapse" during his senior season, his defense coughed up an average of 49 points/game, and he threw for 16 touchdowns and four interceptions. Is scoring 3.2 touchdowns per-game a collapse? I don't get it. Maybe they mean averaging 3.2 instead of 5 or 6---that must be it!
He can run the read-option. He's obsessive. He improved steadily until his...collapse...(maybe it's because he didn't play defense and reduce the 49 points/game? Or run out and catch his own passes, perhaps?)
Ah! during that stretch they say he locked onto his recievers, so that the defenders could read him. He didn't reset his feet, and too often threw off-balance. After making great progress, he reverted to an earlier, less-polished version of himself. Ok that I respect.
So how did he score 3.2 touchdowns/game? Usually this sort of report happens when two or fewer games (or halves) are zeroed in on, and the scout bases his report on this one or two percent of his carreer. (I don't know--I'm guessing. It was a draft-guide scout, and they skew stuff like this a lot. Mike Mayock is vastly superior.)
Even if this is a valid report based on 3 or more whole games, all of these mechanical flaws are not only correctable, but have been self-corrected. The regression was anomolous and temporary. So he took a step back. Big deal. Geno Smith looks better the more you look (without bias).
It took awhile, but Mike Mayock finally caught up to me (blush-blush) and ranked EJ Manuel number two behind Smith. Despite what the talking heads predict, I doubt that this guy will make it to the second round. This is a real longshot, but it's even concievable that the Browns draft him at six. Or preferably trade down if they can.
Smith might not last, but even if he does, they might determine that Manuel has greater upside than Smith, and the plan would be to give him a clipboard and the scout team for his first season while Weeden sinks or swims.
Manuel's only issue is deep accuracy. http://secondroundstats.com/ is an awesome site which crunches situational stats, and gives you a much more accurate statistical look at players at all positions. I love this guy!
The one problem I had with this analyst is that in Manuel's breakdown, he cites his 80-plus completion percentage on intermediate routes, then a way below average percentage on throws over 20 yards...and says the intermediate throws might be the anomoly! The guy threw like five times as many intermediates!
I've cited why I love EJ Manuel. He's a prototype. As smart as Smith, with a similar arm, a tad slower and way, way bigger. And this guy absolutely comes through when the chips are down, every single time.
ChudNorv's will be done (and no freaking way Lombardi/Banner can force a quarterback on them they don't want--stop that crap right now jeezzzz!). But try not to make too big a fool of yourself if they take one of these two guys.
BOOO! I CAN BELIEVE THEY TOOK THAT BUM MCNABB! HE SUCKS! WE'RE DOOMED! BOOOO! AH SAY WE HAING 'EM!
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