Saturday, March 30, 2013

Correcting Cleveland Browns Draft Idiorumors

1:  The Browns might draft the "honey badger", but not before (at least) the third round.  Mathieu is a playmaker, but isn't the same league as Milliner or the 3-4 other CB prospects who-in reality-are almost as good.  The Honey Badger, due to his height and speed, projects to a slot corner in the NFL, and may never evolve into a number two guy.

2:  Trading down, if possible, is still better than simply drafting Milliner.  Milliner is NOT "head-and shoulders" superior to the three cornerbacks behind him.  While he is the best of the bunch, the difference between him and the others has been (typicly/as usual) greatly exhagerrated.  The Browns could land a top flight starting cornerback in the lower third of the first round (or lower).

3: Tashaun Gipson did not fail.  He excelled every time he had a chance.  For whatever reason, the coaches didn't like him, and demoted him by default.  Apparantly, I'm the only guy on the planet who paid any attention, and trusts what he sees.  Gipson might or might not be the stud free safety the Browns "need", but he's at least great depth at both free and strong safety.

4: Depth at WR is not neccessarily a need.  Those who have made these assertions ass ume massively.  On each and every NFL team each and every year, there are low round and undrafted players who emerge as stars.  This is no more common at any position than at wide reciever.  The Browns are neck-deep in these guys.

While none of them are deep threats, they all get open, and have great hands.

4a: A reciever is a reciever.  The current roster features Jordon Cameron as one of these--even though he's a tight end.  While Kellen Davis can hardly be trusted here, Gary Barnidge is also vastly underrated, and another may be drafted.

4b: While Chud/Norv (unlike previous coaches) will adapt their playbook to their personel, they'd prefer to use two tight ends as much as possible.

Norv Turner is not Mike Martz.  Norv deliberately seeks a 50/50 run/pass balance, and wants to be physical.  Norv will, when neccessary, send fewer people out for passes in order to give his quarterback more time to throw.  He will also use an extra tight end to target a linebacker on the run.

Norv/Chud would probably use the current group this way: One tight end (Cameron), one running back, and three wide recievers (Benjamin OR NORWOOD, AND MORE LIKELY NORWOOD) in the slot.  (YES NORWOOD IN THE SLOT AND LITTLE OUTSIDE DUH DUH DUH).

Ok: Benjamin has lethal speed, but Norwood is stronger, runs disciplined patterns, has great hands, and is almost as fast.  Everybody wants to kick Norwood to the curb because he was undrafted and Benjamin wasn't, and because Benjamin is known to be fast.  But the reality is, Norwood is an exceptional proven player who will get a fair chance in this new regime.

Fans get stuck on speed, but reliablity is much more important, especially in a slot reciever.  Norwood gets open and makes the catch.  He gets first downs.  I like Benji too, and I'm not bashing him.  He could overtake Norwood, but for right now, Norwood is better.

Also (4c) Norwood can be an outside reciever, whereas (hallucinations aside) Benjamin would have a very hard time doing that.

Did you notice that I didn't mention a 2-back (with a fullback)?  Well for one thing, there's no proven blocking fullback on the current roster.  If Smelley works out or they acquire one, then we're talking a "21" base, or a two-back with one tight end and two wide-outs.

Assuming Cameron does the utterly predictable and is pretty good in his third season (duh), that would work out fine.

It might take a couple months to sink in, but eventually it will dawn on the pundits that Norv Turner isn't Mike Martz, and we don't need ten wide recievers.

No, seriously: Understand this: Norv Turner (and Chud) want to field physical offenses.  They rely on the run, and the run threat, in order to set up those long passes!  They seek balance, and this is why wide reciever is near the bottom of their wish-list.  They have Cameron, the underrrated Barnidge, Little, Gordon, Norwood, and Benjamin (yes Norwood first), and figure they've got that covered.

5: Gordon didn't show "flashes" or "disappear" in his rookie season.  While it would be foolish to take anything to the bank on him, it's way more likely than not that this guy, in his second season, in an offense tailor-made for him, will be a top-flight lethal weapon.  This is a very serious, dedicated young man who means business.  I'd give 2:1 odds on him to be a Pro Bowl Contender in 2013, regardless of the quarterback.  Pessimism is not realism.  Learn the difference.

6: Little doesn't need to stop dropping passes.  He already has, for over 11 weeks.  It wasn't after game ten, when he was nearly perfect.  He became much more reliable in game five.

7: You don't "disappear" when you get open and your quarterback doesn't throw to you.  I mean, you are still open, even as you helplessly wave your arms in the air and shout at Weeden--so you haven't disappeared--except to him.

8: Clay Matthews II was every bit as good as Lawrence Taylor and should be in the Hall of Fame.  Clay coming out of college was a total-package linebacker who was exceptional in every phase, and was listed at 230 lbs.  He was a 4-3 weakside linebacker then, who covered a lot, but he was addicted to the weight room, and each year came back bigger and stronger.  Soon, his teammates nicknamed him "Conan" more because of his physique than for his long hair.

Matthews was perhaps the biggest single reason that Marty Schottenheimer went to the 3-4.

Clay was everywhere.  Often, he was in the tight end's face.  He'd "bump" the guy, and then as often as he'd cover him, he'd blitze, and get to the quarterback before he could exploit it.  From the weak side, he'd blitze more often than not.

He wasn't as fast as his son, but was stronger than dirt, and a master of technique and leverage.  He almost never tried to go around a left tackle.  He usually went through him.

One particular sack made an indelible impression on me:  Clay faked outside and went inside.  The left tackle slammed his right hand into Clay's chest-plate to arrest his momentum and buy time to re-position himself.  This usually works with a linebacker you outweigh by at least 50 pounds, but not on Matthews.

Clay used a common move: He crossed his right arm inside and ripped.  A "rip" is basicly an uppercut.  He got his right arm under the left tackle's right arm and tried to dislodge it.  It didn't work.  The tackle still had a grip on his jersey.

So Clay just continued with the rip, getting his right bicep under the tackle's right armpit.  He jacked the guy up onto his toes, depriving him of his leverage.  He sort of carried  this 310 lb. dude all the way back to his quarterback, who he sacked.

Now, Paul Kruger, a former defensive end, will probably never be able to cover or anticipate the run as well as Clay Matthews II, but as a passrusher, he is remarkably similar.

I reluctantly admit that Doctor Evil fell in the crap and came up smelling like a rose in replacing Kruger with Dummervill (for less money).  Dumervill is awesome.  But it's getting rediculously out of proportion, thanks to Ozzie-worship.  Another factor which slants things unreasonably is the preoccupation with speed.

I remain very happy with Paul Kruger.  Dummervill was probably a better passrusher last season, but Kruger is 2-3 years younger, and there wasn't much of a difference.  I prefer a power guy to a speed guy anyway.  Paul Kruger is way above average, and hasn't yet reached his peak.

9: Kruger was expected to command 10-11 mil/year.  The Browns signed him, almost immediately, for 8.  He was NOT overpaid.





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