Saturday, March 2, 2013

Cleveland Browns Optimistic Speculation

The Detroit Lions are having some cap trouble, and among their potential cap casualties are cornerbacks Chris Houston and Eric Wright.  They may be able to keep one, but keeping both is problematic.

Browns lynch-mob/stalkers aside, Wright is a good cornerback, and was a good cornerback when you ran him out of town.  Houston is better.  They're both 28.

Keenan Lewis of the Steelers' has to top the presumptive Browns' FA target list, but these two are in there.

What's more important is the pressure this puts on the Lions.  It's most likely that they're able to retain Houston, but not Wright, leaving them with a similar situation to the Browns: One starter and guys named Joe.

The difference is that the Lions lack the ammo to compete for a free agent replacement.  It becomes more likely that at number five, Milliner is their draft pick.

It's still only a slight bias, since an elite passrushing DE is also a need, but in this draft there's good depth at DE, whereas the top four corners are probably gone for them by the second round.

I'm just sayin, as it stands it's 60/40 Milliner for Detroit, and in turn very likely that Ansah, who is better than Jarvis Jones and the rest, will be there for the Browns.

This is good, since it increases the possibility that somebody will be dumb enough or in love enough to trade up for Ansah or Geno Smith.  MK Cabot even thinks somebody might be dumb enough to trade up for Matt Barkley!

Consider again Arizona.  They might agree with me that Smith ranks something like behind Luck, RG3, and I guess Wilson, but ahead of Tannehill and Weeden-(I mean if they were all in this draft and we were clairvoyant about Wilson.)  In other words, with a less talented team, Smith wouldn't take the NFL by storm the way these guys did right away, but has the talent to become a franchise quarterback in time.

They might like the other guys too, but of all of those, only Jim Miller's guy EJ Manuel could run the read-option or make something happen when a weak offensive line fails to protect him.  They could be very well have their eyes on Geno Smith.

...and everybody knows it.  Even if they don't believe that Joe Banner is a big fat liar and the Browns will draft the quarterback after all, they will fear somebody else jumping ahead of them to nab him.

All this is optimistic speculation, of course.  If they agree with the pundits that the difference between Geno Smith and the other guys is slight, nobody, including Arizona, will trade up for him.  For that matter, anybody who wants Manuel will try to trade DOWN to avoid wasting that pick.  He's inexplicably ranked fifth or lower on a lot of boards.

What's more likely than somebody trading up for the quarterback is somebody trading up for Ziggy Ansah.  I agree with Mike Mayock that there is Ansah, and then there are the other guys.  That Ansah is clearly superior to the rest.

...ok but even this is optimistic speculation.  I'd just really like to get EJ Manuel, and know that he could be gone even before the second round.

Not that Weeden will suck in his second year and in a friendlier system to him (DOYEE), but that remains to be confirmed or denied.  He's already 29, and none of the free agents are franchise guys (unless Matt Moore is a late bloomer like Rich Gannon, which is a longshot possibility).

Contrary to the conviction of half the fan base, Colt McCoy doesn't have the arm for Turner's system, but does have all the tools to run a West Coast offense.  He does have trade value to any West Coast team looking for a veteran backup.

This includes the 49ers, who are overloaded with draft picks, and will want to convert some of them.  That team is already loaded with talent and headed for salary cap issues.  They don't want to draft a bunch of guys they're going to have to cut.

With Kaepernick, their base offense is a little bit of everything now, but McCoy can do most of what Alex Smith did under this same coach.  Smith's arm is a little stronger, but he's not a mad bomber either.  McCoy's footspeed is underrated, and he could even run the read-option.

The free agents available to Harbaugh would require new contracts, cost more, and are much older.  Unlike many of you, Harbaugh can look at Colt's pro tapes and see how he could use him, and, because he's younger, develop him as he did both Smith and Kaepernick.

No coach wants to play musical backups, and in McCoy he might see a still-young guy with experience that he can keep for a long time.

What would he give up?  Maybe his bottom-of-the third round pick.  But of course this is more optimistic speculation.  Harbaugh has the option of drafting another young guy in the middle rounds to develop, while indeed signing another free agent, including his own.

Anybody else with trade value?  I'd say Sheard, but the tons of defensive ends in this draft make that unlikely.  Still...a 4-3 team probably can't find somebody as good as he is, both as a passrusher and against the run--and a veteran to boot--past the first round.  Not even in this draft.

If you're saying that we don't have any OLB's other than Sheard, you're wrong. English, Auston Auston English was a passrushing LB with lots of TFL's and sacks in college.  He was converted to 4-3 linebacker here and was wreaking havoc when he was injured.  He has the skill-set to be a better 3-4 OLB than 4-3 OLB and will be given his chance by Ray Horton, if not by any of you.

Chris Gocong was also a passrushing DE in college, but he was drafted by the Eagles (a 4-3 team) and converted to linebacker there.  When he came here into Mangini's 3-4, Scott Fujita was in front of him, and depth issues at ILB placed him there, next to Jackson, as the thumper.  And he kicked butt there!

Emmanuel Stephens is another guy that I completely missed, too.  He was an undrafted free agent signed and then released by the Atlanta Falcons.  Heckert scooped him up, and Jauron had him backing up Sheard at DE.  He can bring the heat!

A 255 lb. DE who moves well in space could emerge as a good 3-4 OLB, given the chance.   L O G I C.

If not Gocong, English or Stephens could be tried inside, too, if the Browns' don't sign or draft a thumper to escort Jackson's run-and hit.  But Gocong can play 3-4 OLB and I'm pretty stunned that everybody else dismisses him too, because HIM you've actually HEARD of!

Nor is Sheard a lock to be any good at OLB.  It looks promising, but no more so, and probably less so, than English or Gocong, who have actually played linebacker!

Anybody else to trade?  Well, there are good running backs here, but teams will draft those.

It's possible a defensive lineman could shake loose because of people you've never heard of and therefore think will never exist.

One is 67 I. Kitchen (Ishmaa'ily Kitchen).

Kitchen is 6'1", 330 lbs and played for Kent State, where Josh Cribbs and local scouts watched him play.  He was an undrafted free agent last season, and was used sparingly as a rotational DT.  He's a better fit for the 3-4 than he is for the 4-3, as his best position is nose tackle.  He has decent speed and range for that position, but his best assets are his strength and leverage.

The guys you do know about are Billy Winn...by the way, who ever told you that 3-4 DE's were supposed to all be 6'5", 320?  Where did you get that?  Are you aware that defensive ends and nose tackles are different?

...anyway Winn might just be the best DE prospect on this roster, as he has the most range.  Then there's John Hughes, who projects mainly as a nose tackle.  (I still can't believe some of you think Winn is a linebacker and Hughes a DE).  Rubin and Taylor should be able to play anywhere on this line.  Including Kitchen, this makes five players for the three positions.  A further breakdown shows two nose tackles, one DE, and two guys who can play either.

Nobody will trade for Kitchen, and unless the Browns sign a good free agent (which they could), they won't want to trade anybody else.

One longshot is Travis Benjamin, who returns kicks and shows real potential in the slot.  I say this because I don't believe that Shurmer ever gave Jordon Norwood a fair shot, and Norv Turner might.  Norwood is almost as fast as Benjamin, has PROVEN his ability to get open and make every catch, and is a little bigger (I'm always afraid somebody will break Benjamin in half).

I really like Benjamin, but would put feelers out to see if somebody would cough up a second rounder for him; possibly even a high third.

So there is lots of optimistic speculation about player-for-pick trades, and the ammo to maybe get both Ansah and Manuel.

...but probably not.

You've heard this before: AZ QB Matt Scott has been compared to Kaepernick.  Please stop.  Kaepernick started a lot more games, and was way more consistant.  He's also much taller and heavier.  This is why Scott might not be drafted until the fifth round.

Scott was supposed to start for Arizona as a sophomore, but along came Nick Foles, who's now the backup in Philly.  He had to ride the pines until Foles was drafted, and stayed in school an extra year so that he could start and get his shot at the NFL.

In what amounted to his rookie season, he was up and down.  At times he looked awesome, but at other times he made boneheaded decisions and wild throws.

What the scouts are talking about with this kid are the flashes of greatness he did show, his smarts, and his leadership.  The terms "scrapper" and "battler" are badly overused, but they do apply to Scott.

On several occasions he led his team from deficits to wins; he got better under pressure (sort of like Manuel).  This characteristic is all but ignored by fans, but is high on the list for scouts, because it can't be coached.  Not with hypnotherapy and sodium pentathol can you put it into a guy's head.  And it's rare.

He is a project with potential.  Intelligence, confidence, a decent arm, accuracy, and excellent wheels (the ability to make something out of nothing and to run the fabulously revolutionary transformational forever read-option offense.)  (That was sarcasm-do I have to explain everything?)  Oh, and unlike Weeden OR McCoy, he's sometimes accurate throwing on the run.

A note on that: Weeden is as accurate as any quarterback with his feet set (and when he can actually see the wide open reciever waving and shouting at him...dammit...)  He's only inaccurate when he's moving.  I mean as in shuffling, walking, or in any way moving either foot more than six inches.  (Well okay except for his left foot stepping foreward.)  He might also be inaccurate while chewing gum.

He's a PITCHER, see?  So quit saying he's not accurate.  I'm just hoping Chud and Turner can coach him up on throwing on the move--he's not THAT uncoordinated, and can improve it.  Jim Miller talked about the drills he had to practice to overcome his own similar weakness; it's coachable.

The Browns might draft Scott lower, and hope he mutates into something special while Weeden hopefully does well.

I still think Matt Moore will be the main free agent QB target, and that they could luck out and catch him blossoming.

More optimistic speculation.  So sue me.











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