Sunday, March 10, 2013

Comments on Comments on Browns Moves and Stuff.

1: Ryann Mallett slid into the third round of his draft mostly because he's fairly immobile, and NFL trainers and coaches can only do so much about that.  Great arm, accuracy etc.

Belichick saw him as a value in the third round.  He and his staff would work with him and see if they could turn him into something behind Tom Brady, and if they couldn't, they could always trade him.

If they couldn't, they could always trade him.  If they couldn't, they could always trade him DO YOU UNDERSTAND?

This is what smart football people do.  They sometimes take chances on big arms with big names, and they think about a couple years down the road; about worst-case scenarios.  If this guy doesn't look like the man, we can get something back for him.

Most of what you read about this Mallett thing is supposition and guesswork.  Writers think of what they would do, and then use the word "source" to put it forward.  Then other people repeat it and comment on the guess as if it were etched in stone.  Before you know it, the amateur's guess is accepted as fact.

By the way, you know who doesn't do this?  Adam Schefter.  If he says something will happen, it usually does.  The dude's amazing.

Anyway, the supposition that the price would be a second-rounder is probably correct.  Bill turns another third round pick into another second round pick.  Par for his course.

It also might be correct that Mallett has made progress and looks like Brady's heir apparant, in which case he won't trade him, period.  Either way, the Browns probably shouldn't even think about it.

2: I like the writers who list all the links between free agent players and Browns coaches and staff members.  This is valid, because the players know who they're dealing with, how they operate, and no doubt exactly where they fit in the schemes.

This extra insight helps them think beyond the 5-11 season and changes here, and see the potential for improvements and playoffs.  These players should consider the Browns as among their possibilities, whereas others will rule them out based on cursory impressions.

Paul Kruger and Keenan Lewis have no such connections here, but they know that this 5-11 team beat the Steelers and almost beat the Ravens last season.  They've also had a thorough look at Brandon Weeden, as they've studied him a lot on film along with playing against him.

They'll already have formed their own opinions about how he'll do in this more Weeden-freindly offense, and will or won't come here based on that as much as on money.

Both will negotiate for leverage, if for no other reason, but if either actually sign in the first wave, I'll take this as an inside source expressing confidence in Weeden.  (I just won't invent any quotes.)

2: If by "fair market value", Joe Banner means simply that, the Browns will lose the bidding wars.  They're 5-11 with a questionable young old quarterback and no Turner-centric depth.  They play in one of the toughest divisions in football, with the young Bengals one step ahead of them, and the reigning Superbowl champs.  And it's COLD up here!

If Banner understands that for this team and at this time, fair market value is market value plus ten percent, they'll compete.

I hope for the latter, but suspect that Banner might let the top tier guys get away, and wait for the "second round".  This is where the FA's get less picky and accept less money, because now it's a race between them and other players at their positions to fill the needs of teams for the most money.  The longer it takes, the less leverage they have.

If Banner has kept his powder dry and still has most of his cap-space, he can clean up here, but he's not going to get any really elite players.

3: The more I think about it, the less I like Mike Wallace.  I hate the Stoolers, but they really know what they're doing, and they're fed up with the greedy selfish mercenary less-than-reliable egomaniac.

3a: I believe the front office and coaches really like Josh Gordon and project him as their number one reciever.

Joe Banner once again spoke english about Gordon, which is of course why he was widely misunderstood.  So, he needs to keep making progress and improving.  This is obvious.  He was a raw rookie last season.  A guy as big an tall as he is always has room to make crisper breaks, run more precise routes, etc.  A rookie is never as good as he'll become.

Banner never expressed any doubts about this.  He was merely telling Gordon through the media that he needs to keep working hard to improve himself.

So the Browns don't "need" a number one reciever.  They just need Gordon to be better in his second season as number one than he was as a rookie.

4: The Browns do have a lot of salary tied up in their offensive line as it is.  But this doesn't prevent them from spending even more on this position group.  Nor is a new more athletic young guard all addition.  The team will only keep so many offensive linemen, and one or more of the current group will be released or concievably traded.

This is why accountants are kept away from making personnel decisions.

Also, if you want more push, Miller has now had a season to learn the pro game, and with the new regime will be given a fair chance to play right guard.

5: James Harrison is old and washed up.  Don't even think about it.

6: Jared Cook should be near the top of the Browns list!  Cameron is big and strong and can block in-line, in addition to running routes from the slot or doing H-Back stuff, but you need more than him.  Jared Cook is another coverted wide reciever who was a basketball player.

This guy is like Kellen Winslow.  He's not a good in-line blocker but can run every route and makes big plays.  He is a fit for Turner's offense.

Understand this:  Delete the labels tight end and wide reciever.  Substitute "reciever".  Cook is a reciever, okay?  Tony Grossi likes Little in the slot and so do I, but he's big and pretty fast and can beat presses, so he's fully capable of playing outside.  Cook would be better in the slot than Little is.

They might still need more there.  Smelley is a good, versatile player who should get a fair shot at fullback in his second season, and has shown that he can be a reciever, but if you field two tight ends more than occasionally, you really need three true tight ends for depth.

7: James Micheal Johnson might well be a damn good inside linebacker in his second season.  I'd love to nab Ellerbe, but Banner won't break the bank for him.

8: I love D'Qwell Jackson but would have him on the auction block this offseason, and I'd want a second-rounder for him.

This is despite the fact that, for those who understand the 3-4, Jackson is a classic run-and-hit 3-4 ILB.  One of the ILB's is protected from offensive linemen by alignment and by the bigger ILB next to him.  One is a thumper (Gocong, maybe JMJ, possibly one of two other ex-defensive ends on the current roster), and the other is the run-and-hit guy.

But this draft is deep, and Jackson is more valuable to a 4-3 team.  I'd take a second rounder (or a 3rd and 4th) or else keep him.

9: http://secondroundstats.com/  is an awesome site which breaks down players' statistics in greater detail.  For a quarterback, it separates completions at different ranges and places, coming from behind, down, distance, etc. and factors in recievers.  For example, EJ Manuel and Geno Smith had exceptional recievers who only dropped the ball like one out of twenty times, whereas another guy might have a Braylon Edwards or Mike Wallace.

Anyway, I like EJ Manuel MORE THAN Geno Smith, and think he's got greatness written all over him.

His one issue is inaccuracy deep.  He's exceptional up to twenty yards, but ranks low at over twenty.  He's in the middle of the pack everywhere else.  Geno Smith ranks higher overall, but he threw the majority of his passes under five yards.

Why do I think Manuel is better than Smith?  Because he won every Bowl game, came through at the Senior Bowl and then at the combine.  Because he is fueled by pressure.  The tougher it gets, the better he gets.  Man, you can't teach that!

Further, Manuel is very, very intelligent.  It shows up in the interviews.

The inaccuracy deep is troubling, but has nothing to do with arm strength.  He has all the arm he needs.   Scouts (and Jim Miller) have said that he'll need to work on his feet, and he throws too often without being planted.  He completed over 73% of his passes between 11-20 yards, which is ideal for the NFL.

He was the same from under center as he was from the shotgun (whereas Smith's numbers fell off from under center).

Manuel towers over the rest of them and is also faster.  Geno Smith is much more NFL-ready, and I'm no scout and could definitely be wrong, but right now think that Manuel has more upside.

According to Miller, just between his last college game and the Senior Bowl, he looked much more polished after having trained with some NFL people.  Between EJ and Geno I have a hard time picking, but that pressure response thing (and fast learning curve) is just huge for me, and transcends all the nuts and bolts.

With a second round pick, they'd have a shot at him, though I'm not alone on this, and he might well be gone in the first.








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