Wednesday, March 6, 2013

Analyzing Brandon Weeden's Analyses

Chud's first experience as an offensive coordinator involved Derrick Anderson, Brady Quinn, and a 10-6 season.  The next season, Anderson fell on his face, then Quinn joined him.

Most would agree, Cam Newton did better.  Chud has no doubt learned from all those experiences.  We don't need to talk about Norv Turner.  These guys know quarterbacks.

In his rookie season, Brandon Weeden was up-and-down.  Per the new collective bargaining agreement, they're not allowed to work with him, and all they can do is re-run his tapes and guesstimate what he was thinking.

When they do get to interrogate him, they'll show him their tapes, and ask him what he saw pre-snap, if he saw this guy, or this guy, or that guy wide open, and if so, why he didn't throw the damn ball.

Jim Miller and Rich Gannon have both guessed that he saw the recievers, but didn't trust his read, and hesitated.  This is a kind of paranoia.  "This is too easy-oh God it must be a trap!"

If that's the case, it might be fixable, especially after they show him the tapes and he sees that his read was right, it was safe, and he left one big play after another on the field due to timidity.  Let's hope so.  In college, he slung it anywhere he felt like.

Turner's offense will certainly help, with more shotgun snaps and deep throws.  It's much simpler than the West Coast, and the vertical routes are more clear-cut; no sneaky safeties hiding around corners.

His other issue was footwork.  He's a pocket passer who must have his feet set when he throws.  Jim Miller said he had similar issues, and had to learn to take shorter steps, and re-plant.  Watch Tom Brady.  He's great at it.

Weeden would "drift" out of the pocket, keeping his eyes down the field, but taking long, lazy strides.  If you watch Brady, you'll see him sprint a couple yards, then stand still again.  Weeden would throw while running, with bad accuracy.  Brady throws the same as he would in the pocket, because he has re-planted his feet, ready to throw.

A side-note on this: The dart-then re-plant thing helps the offensive lineman, who is often turning with the passrusher and sees it.  He can shove the passrusher off-line.  If the quarterback has re-planted and is stationary, the defender can't turn into him before he overshoots.  If the quarterback is still drifting along, he will overtake and sack him.

While these two flaws seem to be fixable, that's not certain.  Then there's the disturbing fact that Brandon seemed to get worse as the season progressed.  Even as Gordon blossomed into a really scary reciever, and Little dropped three out of 42 or so passes.

Why didn't you throw it?  Why did you eat it?  DID you see them?  Did you study this defense on film enough?  WILL you?  I personally think Weeden will probably be much better/more consistant in the Turner offense, but I'm not sure.  I mean, I couldn't wait for Derrick Anderson to tear up the NFL after going 10-6, and...well.

Yeah, he's working with Chris Weinke...

By the way, it's profoundly ignorant and stupid to bash Weinke.  He has a great track record working with quarterbacks and is recommended by many agents and coaches.  Most of the best boxing managers were bad boxers.  They had the brains, but not the reflexes, hand-speed, balance, power, whatever.  But they took guys with more talent and made them champions.

Weinke is excellent, so shut up.

Anyway, Weeden was in Florida to attend Seneca Wallace's wedding, and contacted Weinke "while he was down there".  Weinke worked with him for three days.

So no, this doesn't mean that Brandon Weeden is dedicated and has a great work ethic.

I was troubled by his former coach's comments (and non-comments) as the guy gushed about his new guy, Geno Smith.  He's got game-tapes on his I-pod.  He watches his own games all the time to see what he did wrong.  He studies the best NFL quarterbacks intensely.  He's obsessed with football and self-improvement.  Called a lot of his own plays (because he reads defenses exceptionally well/quickly) (This for me is huge).

Then, coach answers a Weeden question:  He's got a great arm.  Natural spiral.  Can throw it anywhere, and, uhhh...

The Brass not talking Weeden up when they came here wasn't damning him with faint praise.  THIS was.

Yeah yeah I know, Weeden is already in the NFL and this coach wants his new guy to get drafted as high as possible to make himself look good.  Everybody will forget everything he said when Smith falls on his face, right?

Now, there was an article asserting that the Browns would draft Smith, according to a source.  Well, you don't seem to know how this works, so according to a source, you are gay.  Sources say that Joe Banner works for the CIA.  See?  I made it up, and if you ever wanted me to name my source, I would refuse in order to protect my privacy.

Nobody believed it, since that would be utterly insane.  I mean, Kiper allegedly said that Weeden would have been the first one off the board this year, did he?  No, I mean, DID he?  Because I doubt it.  But the consensus is that this crop is inferior to last year's, and that none of them belong in the top ten on the board.

So instead of some guy like me just making it up, it just had to be an intentional leak intended to stir up trade interest.  Someone on the cleaning staff, maybe? (Actually that's quite believable.  I would to that myself.)

Another guy says that since Banner's statements about telling the truth etc. earned him such credibility and good will, if he drafted Smith, it would shoot that all to hell.

How dumb.  He said "We don't plan to use a high draft pick on a quarterback", right?  He might have said "at this time" or not, but he shouldn't have needed to, if he's talking to an english-speaking public.

I guess for this guy, he needed to say "But we haven't been allowed to get with Brandon yet, we haven't finished evaluating the prospects yet, and this could change, so we might change our minds and do something different.  I'm just saying that right NOW we don't plan to use a high draft choice on a quarterback DO YOU UNDERSTAND?  Okay what was the sixth word in my last sentence?  It starts with an 'n'."

And how can you expect a football front office guy to tell the truth all the time anyway?  Never played poker, did you?  "I'm going to draft THIS guy".  The other GM's know he really means it, so they jump ahead of him and take his player every single time.  "I've got three aces, so please don't fold."

Grow up.  Banner can't be totally honest.  But he's smart.  He knows that most people don't understand english, so he's safe telling the truth.  Sort of.

This brings me back to Smith and Weeden.

If they believe that Weeden will be much better in his second season and in this Brandon-friendly offense, Smith is off the table.  If they aren't pretty damn sure about that, Smith is a candidate.

Then they have to decide if Smith does look like a franchise guy, and if they disagree with his college coach and a few others about that, then they won't take him.

But if they doubt Weeden and think Geno Smith will compulsively make himself great in the NFL as he did in college, they HAVE TO DRAFT HIM.  Because he's a quarterback!

Why will a lot of free agents NOT come to Cleveland for any amount of money?

Not because the team lacks talent.  All the players in the NFL know that this is a talented team with excellent coaches, even if you don't.  They won't come here because of the quarterback.  The most talented team, if it does manage to reach the playoffs, won't get anywhere without a real good quarterback.

They're not saying Weeden sucks, either.  They just don't know.  Most of them want to win a Superbowl, and the first place they look on every team is the quarterback.  Weeden has done nothing yet, and so far looks mediocre.  And hesitant.  And timid.  And wild when he has to move.  Even if they think he might be great, they want the sure thing first.

If Joe could safely tell these guys "We're going to draft Geno Smith", Trust me, half of them would reconsider!  Yes, they would, do you get that?

Finally, part of this whole "doesn't belong in the top ten" stuff is obsolete thinking.  Since the new Collective Bargaining Agreement, quarterbacks get paid the same as any other player drafted in a given slot.  But quarterback remains THE MOST important position on the field.

So even if you think he's a middle first rounder, you draft him anyway (I mean, unless you have a lot of confidence in Weeden, which they might--I don't know).

They WILL sign free agent secondary guys and OLB's, by the way, so don't worry so much about the few real (and many imaginary) needs.

Oh yeah, and Greg Little is great for the slot but CAN start outside opposite Gordon, so a free agent reciever can be a slot guy or an outside guy.  For that matter, I'm not ready to give up on Benji or Norwood (who I hope they re-sign) in the slot either.

Finally, Richardson had broken ribs and Shurmer let him play anyway.  Throw out that whole season.  Those of us who have had broken ribs get this, so maybe you should just crack one...a little...and see if you can even move.

Trent will be fine.





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