1: The Browns might draft the "honey badger", but not before (at least) the third round. Mathieu is a playmaker, but isn't the same league as Milliner or the 3-4 other CB prospects who-in reality-are almost as good. The Honey Badger, due to his height and speed, projects to a slot corner in the NFL, and may never evolve into a number two guy.
2: Trading down, if possible, is still better than simply drafting Milliner. Milliner is NOT "head-and shoulders" superior to the three cornerbacks behind him. While he is the best of the bunch, the difference between him and the others has been (typicly/as usual) greatly exhagerrated. The Browns could land a top flight starting cornerback in the lower third of the first round (or lower).
3: Tashaun Gipson did not fail. He excelled every time he had a chance. For whatever reason, the coaches didn't like him, and demoted him by default. Apparantly, I'm the only guy on the planet who paid any attention, and trusts what he sees. Gipson might or might not be the stud free safety the Browns "need", but he's at least great depth at both free and strong safety.
4: Depth at WR is not neccessarily a need. Those who have made these assertions ass ume massively. On each and every NFL team each and every year, there are low round and undrafted players who emerge as stars. This is no more common at any position than at wide reciever. The Browns are neck-deep in these guys.
While none of them are deep threats, they all get open, and have great hands.
4a: A reciever is a reciever. The current roster features Jordon Cameron as one of these--even though he's a tight end. While Kellen Davis can hardly be trusted here, Gary Barnidge is also vastly underrated, and another may be drafted.
4b: While Chud/Norv (unlike previous coaches) will adapt their playbook to their personel, they'd prefer to use two tight ends as much as possible.
Norv Turner is not Mike Martz. Norv deliberately seeks a 50/50 run/pass balance, and wants to be physical. Norv will, when neccessary, send fewer people out for passes in order to give his quarterback more time to throw. He will also use an extra tight end to target a linebacker on the run.
Norv/Chud would probably use the current group this way: One tight end (Cameron), one running back, and three wide recievers (Benjamin OR NORWOOD, AND MORE LIKELY NORWOOD) in the slot. (YES NORWOOD IN THE SLOT AND LITTLE OUTSIDE DUH DUH DUH).
Ok: Benjamin has lethal speed, but Norwood is stronger, runs disciplined patterns, has great hands, and is almost as fast. Everybody wants to kick Norwood to the curb because he was undrafted and Benjamin wasn't, and because Benjamin is known to be fast. But the reality is, Norwood is an exceptional proven player who will get a fair chance in this new regime.
Fans get stuck on speed, but reliablity is much more important, especially in a slot reciever. Norwood gets open and makes the catch. He gets first downs. I like Benji too, and I'm not bashing him. He could overtake Norwood, but for right now, Norwood is better.
Also (4c) Norwood can be an outside reciever, whereas (hallucinations aside) Benjamin would have a very hard time doing that.
Did you notice that I didn't mention a 2-back (with a fullback)? Well for one thing, there's no proven blocking fullback on the current roster. If Smelley works out or they acquire one, then we're talking a "21" base, or a two-back with one tight end and two wide-outs.
Assuming Cameron does the utterly predictable and is pretty good in his third season (duh), that would work out fine.
It might take a couple months to sink in, but eventually it will dawn on the pundits that Norv Turner isn't Mike Martz, and we don't need ten wide recievers.
No, seriously: Understand this: Norv Turner (and Chud) want to field physical offenses. They rely on the run, and the run threat, in order to set up those long passes! They seek balance, and this is why wide reciever is near the bottom of their wish-list. They have Cameron, the underrrated Barnidge, Little, Gordon, Norwood, and Benjamin (yes Norwood first), and figure they've got that covered.
5: Gordon didn't show "flashes" or "disappear" in his rookie season. While it would be foolish to take anything to the bank on him, it's way more likely than not that this guy, in his second season, in an offense tailor-made for him, will be a top-flight lethal weapon. This is a very serious, dedicated young man who means business. I'd give 2:1 odds on him to be a Pro Bowl Contender in 2013, regardless of the quarterback. Pessimism is not realism. Learn the difference.
6: Little doesn't need to stop dropping passes. He already has, for over 11 weeks. It wasn't after game ten, when he was nearly perfect. He became much more reliable in game five.
7: You don't "disappear" when you get open and your quarterback doesn't throw to you. I mean, you are still open, even as you helplessly wave your arms in the air and shout at Weeden--so you haven't disappeared--except to him.
8: Clay Matthews II was every bit as good as Lawrence Taylor and should be in the Hall of Fame. Clay coming out of college was a total-package linebacker who was exceptional in every phase, and was listed at 230 lbs. He was a 4-3 weakside linebacker then, who covered a lot, but he was addicted to the weight room, and each year came back bigger and stronger. Soon, his teammates nicknamed him "Conan" more because of his physique than for his long hair.
Matthews was perhaps the biggest single reason that Marty Schottenheimer went to the 3-4.
Clay was everywhere. Often, he was in the tight end's face. He'd "bump" the guy, and then as often as he'd cover him, he'd blitze, and get to the quarterback before he could exploit it. From the weak side, he'd blitze more often than not.
He wasn't as fast as his son, but was stronger than dirt, and a master of technique and leverage. He almost never tried to go around a left tackle. He usually went through him.
One particular sack made an indelible impression on me: Clay faked outside and went inside. The left tackle slammed his right hand into Clay's chest-plate to arrest his momentum and buy time to re-position himself. This usually works with a linebacker you outweigh by at least 50 pounds, but not on Matthews.
Clay used a common move: He crossed his right arm inside and ripped. A "rip" is basicly an uppercut. He got his right arm under the left tackle's right arm and tried to dislodge it. It didn't work. The tackle still had a grip on his jersey.
So Clay just continued with the rip, getting his right bicep under the tackle's right armpit. He jacked the guy up onto his toes, depriving him of his leverage. He sort of carried this 310 lb. dude all the way back to his quarterback, who he sacked.
Now, Paul Kruger, a former defensive end, will probably never be able to cover or anticipate the run as well as Clay Matthews II, but as a passrusher, he is remarkably similar.
I reluctantly admit that Doctor Evil fell in the crap and came up smelling like a rose in replacing Kruger with Dummervill (for less money). Dumervill is awesome. But it's getting rediculously out of proportion, thanks to Ozzie-worship. Another factor which slants things unreasonably is the preoccupation with speed.
I remain very happy with Paul Kruger. Dummervill was probably a better passrusher last season, but Kruger is 2-3 years younger, and there wasn't much of a difference. I prefer a power guy to a speed guy anyway. Paul Kruger is way above average, and hasn't yet reached his peak.
9: Kruger was expected to command 10-11 mil/year. The Browns signed him, almost immediately, for 8. He was NOT overpaid.
Saturday, March 30, 2013
Thursday, March 28, 2013
Rodney Weedenfield and Jason Campbellfield
Bill Polian, the former GM of the Indianapolis Colts, on NFL Radio had trouble understanding the signing of Jason Campbell. I have trouble understanding why he has trouble understanding it.
They said they'd bring in competition for Weeden, and they meant it. Polian considers Campbell a guy who, if he starts for maybe six games, you can win half of those, but if he starts more than those, you're in trouble. He didn't say why.
Well, this is the guy who built Peyton Manning's Colts, so I'd be an egomaniac to dismiss his opinion. Still, I feel he's selling the guy short.
Rich Gannon knocked around the NFL for most of his carreer too. He was considered the exact same way: A good backup, but not a starter. And he played for a lot of bad teams.
Bad teams...interesting. Wonder of anybody else ever considered that. I mean, you can be a great quarterback, but if you don't have at least solid recievers, a respectable running game, time to throw, and are always trying to come from behind because your defense isn't that good, maybe--just maybe--it's not your fault!
Maybe I should get a copyrite on that: the other 21 players matter!!!
Anyway, we all know where Gannon's career went once he had some help. Did he suddenly get better, or suddenly get a little help? Marty Schottenheimer, if I know him, would tell you today that he made a dumb move when he did all he could to replace Gannon. His Chiefs might have won a Superbowl had he just let him start. See? Even smart guys can be dumb...Bill.
Campbell, now--the Raiders have a lot of holes, yet he had them winning when the Browns broke him up. He was doing a lot more than managing the games. Carson Palmer is--well...
Is he a franchise guy? I doubt it. I think Pluto is on the money. He and Weeden will duke it out, and this time it will be a fair fight. Pluto is also right in saying that Weeden has a good chance of keeping the job; of being better than he was as a rookie in a super-complex offense he didn't belong in (DUUHHH).
Yes, Colt McCoy is a goner. I like him too, and think he might have done much better than Weeden last season in Shurmer's West Coast, had he been given a fair chance. But he doesn't fit Turner's offense, and that's that.
It's typical for some fans to say that nobody would give anything up for Colt, and wrong. He's an inexpensive, experienced West Coast quarterback. Those who make a living running football teams know that this guy can play.
Unfortunately, Campbell's signing takes away the Browns' leverage. The only reason another team would trade anything for him now is to make sure they got him before anybody else did. They might get a 5th or 6th rounder at best now.
Now this means that quarterback is off the radar in the draft. NOT.
Think about it. Between an improved Weeden and a Campbell on his first really talented team ever and the upgraded defense, say the Browns merely win eight games next season. (I think it will be more. Doctor Evil has managed to rob a bank or something and salvage the Ravens, but the Steelers are declining and the Browns might have caught up to Cinci.)
So now in 2014 they draft around 16th 18th in the first round. What if this time there is an RG3 or a Luck? Do they have a snowball's chance in hell of getting him?
Meanwhile, Campbell is 33 and Weeden 31, and the odds are that niether can match up to Flacco, Rottenburgers, or Dalton. They are good enough to contend, and go 8-8 and then even maybe 11-6, but then?
Tony Grossi was only reflecting a consensus opinion about this year's crop of quarterbacks, but the consensus has been wrong before. Cam Newton was raw, and would ideally need a year or two on the bench to develop. Russell Wilson could eventually become a reliable backup. Rich Gannon could be a really good safety, but isn't a quarterback. Tom Brady might have been a reach in the sixth round.
And the heck with Lombardi--Turner and Chud are listened to, and Farmer has a respected opinion. If they think that everybody else is wrong and they're right, they might draft a quarterback anywhere.
The Mallett thing won't go away, either. Bill will have to compete with other teams to re-sign him next season, and can't afford to match the offers he'll get. He really needs to try to get something for him now--unless, of course, he plans to bench Tom Brady and start him. Your opinion?
Bill has zero leverage. If he holds out for that second rounder, he'll lose him and get nothing at all. And why does everyone assume it has to be a draft pick? Why not a versatile young vet defensive lineman?
All of this assumes that the Browns really want Mallett. We know that Lombardi does, but that won't fly if Turner disagrees. Nor would Banner let the organization overpay.
But don't write Weeden or Campbell off. One could be another Rich Gannon. The other just another first round pick who needed to get beat up for one season before he starts kicking butt.
How refreshing: LET the best man win!
Tuesday, March 26, 2013
What the Hell is Going On Around Here
Barry Manilov paraphrased Vince Lombardi in asking this question about the current Browns anemia in free agency. I'd been bothered by it too, but was assuming that they were actually working behind the scenes. You know, when any Browns' front office fails to land the big ones, people assume that they're not trying.
Cleveland is not a popular destination for free agents--unlike Joe Banner's perennially-contending Eagles teams.
Then Lane Adkins shocked me. He'd been in touch with some of the agents, who told them that "the Browns" contacted them to express interest in their clients, then never called back, even as the agents were/are negotiating with competitors. Wow are you kidding me!?!
I have some theories about this. First, we need to know the people involved:
Joe Banner is serious and businesslike. During his tenure with the Eagles, he might have inquired with agents about players, but after that, he could just wait for a return call. The Eagles were in the playoffs every year; always a top 5-7 NFL team. Real football players wanted to play for Andy Reid and be a part of that. Sometimes they'd even take second-best money to get there.
Put aside Mike Lombardi's idiotic opinions and bad draft picks for a moment. (And by the way, delete his time with the Raiders. Everybody knows who made every one of those draft picks and free agent moves, and it wasn't Lombardi, ok?)
Don't be emotional here: He has great people skills. People like him. As a columnist, he spoke to a lot of agents and GM's extensively as he tried to dig up information. He developed some friendships, and stronger relationships with these people than he would have as a front-office rep. In his media role, he was not an adversary.
Further, lip-service aside, Lombardi is not a brillant personnel guy. He has a didactic memory like Gil Brandt, and knows all the stats, all the clock-times and reps, the mother's maiden names, injury details, etc. So he can tell you all about any player he's checked out. This is impressive.
What he really does is collect opinions and information. With the Browns today, my profile says that he consults all the coaches and scouts (and his very smart assitant, Farmer--Ed, is it? Highly-respected judge of talent). He sort of gets a consensus. His opinions are less his than this consensus of those of people whose judgement he's learned to trust.
I don't know as much about Banner. I HOPE he's not a control-freak megalomaniac, as some have said. And then there's Haslam, who makes me feel better. He will have exerted some control in the front office structure.
If I'm right, Lombardi is the guy who calls the agents to feel them out about ballpark asking prices and terms, discuss how their clients would fit, etc. (ALL guesswork here ok?) He is NOT authorized to negotiate--that's Banner's job.
Lombardi recons out the preliminary info and takes it to Banner, and it's up to Joe to follow up.
And he doesn't.
Why? Surely, he must know that these Browns are not his Eagles. Surely he knows that players joke about the Browns, and curse eachother by saying "I hope you get traded to Cleveland!" He can't just sit here and wait for his phone to ring anymore. But if I'm right, that's what he's doing.
But there are other factors. One is, there are a number of young Browns' players who are being dismissed by fans and media who the new coaches think will be very good. One-A is they may be willing to gamble a little to give them their shot. Tashaun Gipson and Jordan Cameron, for example.
Two is bigger: They intend to hold something back for next season, when they need to re-sign Alex Mack, Joe Haden, and others. Mack is in my opinion (and certainly his) a top five center, and will command top five money. Haslam and Banner want to keep their best players, as well as sign new ones.
Three is, naturally the agents asked for the stars and the moon, and Banner doesn't like horse trading. Scott Pioli on NFL Radio helped me understand his own method: You make an initial offer which is close to what you're willing to pay. If you lowball the player, it's insulting, and they don't forget it, even if they sign with you. You might also alienate the player to the point that he won't let his agent talk to you at all.
You make your offer, and then move only a little.
I believe that Banner may have made these offers, and is waiting for replies.
If that's the case, I sort of get it. Maybe they're even willing to overpay a little, because they know how unpopular the Browns are. And if some other team wants to pay too much, the Browns can't go there--because that would be stupid.
Overpaying is stupid because other players on your team will also want more, you eat up your cap space, and in both cases you get dissention and lose players.
And what about the agents? Well, did they tell Lane the whole truth? Was an offer made?
If that's the case (and I have no idea if it is--it just sort of fits the puzzle. I mean, I'll need more evidence before I'll believe that Banner is an incompetant boob.)...If an offer was made, and the agents are waiting for him to call back with a bigger bribe, then they are the bad guys, and not acting in their clients' best interests.
I'm guessing. It's a lot of what analysts lacking information have to do. You look for a pattern that makes sense, and to do that you have to fill in some blanks.
Just sayin.
Sunday, March 24, 2013
Cleveland Browns Analysis Corrections
Terry Pluto is da man, but he's wrong about the tight ends. Terry said that from among the current group, there don't seem to be any playmakers.
Jordon Cameron was drafted because he was a basketball star with hardly any experience as a tight end. Part of the reason he lacked experience there was that he was a wide reciever first.
Pat Shurmer wasn't about to park Ben Watson on the bench to let the kid play more, so his playing time was limited--he mostly played when Watson was injured. He did pass up Alex Smith on the depth chart, which was part of the reason Smith was used at fullback.
It seems more likely than not that in ChudTurner's offense, this third-year player will emerge as a big-time playmaker.
Desperate for Browns' stuff, I hit the Bleacher Report and read this projection of the Browns starting line-up. It was actually pretty good and well-reasoned overall, but this one thing blew it out of the water:
He's got Travis Benjamin starting opposite Josh Gordon, and Little in the slot.
Little is excellent in the slot, so that's okay. But Travis Benjamin is 5'9", 175 lbs. The only way for him to get by a bump is to run around it. Any pass to him, especially to the sideline, has to be way more accurate than it has to be to a Greg Little-sized reciever. In today's NFL, the smurfs are all in the slot, for these and other reasons.
Situationally, largely depending on (or to force) matchups, Benjamin could go outside and Little inside, but in a vertical offense you simply can't have that as a permanant formation. It can work in a West Coast, because the little guy isn't trying to get vertical and will win the footrace if he can get inside leverage for a cross or slant.
It'd be nice to have (or discover on the roster) another big guy who could bump Little to the slot, but the smurf can't/won't.
Little is also getting dissed as an outside receiver for no good reason. He can use his body to wall off defenders, has reach, has improved his patterns, and has the explosiveness and speed to get and keep separation. Just as importantly, he can power through press coverage.
But as I said, this guy was pretty good everywhere else...I was pretty shocked.
Friday, March 22, 2013
Cleveland Browns General Corrections
1: Phil Dawson didn't want to remain in Cleveland, and he is getting to the age where even kickers fall off the age-cliff. I wanted to see him stick around, but understand that football is a business--with a budget. Josh Cribbs is also aging and slowing, and failed his physical.
Some of you people, once you get attached to somebody--maybe it's a chemical thing, like falling in love or something. You can't think anymore. If you were in charge, no promising, young, affordable player would ever get a chance.
Doctor Evil (Ozzie) let Ed Reed go. Well, he learned from his retention of the venerable Saint Ray Lewis long, long past his prime. Ray's godlike superpowers didn't transcend the ravages of age, the coaches didn't dare not start him. He hurt his team.
Don't start with the hero-worship, either. Watch the films.
Reed is a Hall-of Famer who can still play. Check out those words: He can still play...just not as well.
Ozzie knows what Ravens fans and even some of the guys on NFL Radio can't face up to: He's lost half his defense and more. Players say "It happens every year". They lie to themselves. You don't lose around 33% of your starters every year, people!
The Ravens are in cap hell and Ozzie knows he has to take a step back, get young players on the field so they can develop, and that his team probably can't even contend until after Reed is done.
The Browns know that they're about a year behind the Bengals (and now ahead of the Ravens and Stoolers by the way--read it and weep). They have a shot at the Division this season, but they have questions at quarterback and in the secondary. In reality, Cribbs is fading--that's the truth--and they want to get their young guys in there.
Ben Watson gets concussions. Cameron is in his third season. Phil wanted too much, and you just have to wonder how long any human can last--probably through '13, but beyond that? Can you guarantee money a year out with that risk?
2: You can erroneously assume that Paul Kruger can't stop the run, but please, for the love of Pete, quit saying he's not big enough to hold up against it! I can't believe this stuff!
3: Gil Brandt says that he's never seen a draft like this before. He says that there's no difference, quality-wise, between the 11th player and the 50th player. He also says that all of those players are "very good", including many day one starters.
For logical, objective people, that presents a conundrum. If Milliner is there at 6, most fans would automaticly just take him. He fills a position of real need, and instantly gives the Browns possibly the best CB tandem in the NFL.
All other thoughts shut down. Emotion takes over. Take Milliner no matter what.
Even if somebody offers a middle first and a middle second and change for the pick? YES, you scream, pounding your fist on the table, drooling a little.
Now wait. There are three other cornerbacks in this draft who are almost as good as Milliner. If he's a 9.7, all of them are 9.something. For our purposes here, you have no doubt decided that EJ Manuel sucks, but you will change your mind if Milliner doesn't fall to 6.
This is what Brandt said, basicly. If the top ten are 9.5's, you have 8.8-plusses all the way down to fifty in most position groups. So you couldn't somehow live with Trufant and a stud guard, top free safety, or maybe Manuel instead of Milliner alone? You wouldn't take two top-flight starters over the one guy?
Are you out of your damn mind? Are you the same people who are calling guard, slot corner, and wide reciever "needs"? How can you hallucinate all these "needs" and then want one new starter instead of two (or maybe one and a project quarterback if it's Manuel)?
That's Cleveland for you! Milliner is God, Trufant sucks. Have you got a Josh Cribbs shrine in your john, with candles and stuff too?
Of course, if they can't get a second-rounder (at least), sure! Take Milliner and I'll celebrate with you because this guy really is "all that" and would put this defense near the top instantly.
It's just that Trufant and another player of similar quality instead, that's better!
But the trade-down is unlikely, since most GM's think like me, and will just take their second-best cornerback and be happy.
Some of you people, once you get attached to somebody--maybe it's a chemical thing, like falling in love or something. You can't think anymore. If you were in charge, no promising, young, affordable player would ever get a chance.
Doctor Evil (Ozzie) let Ed Reed go. Well, he learned from his retention of the venerable Saint Ray Lewis long, long past his prime. Ray's godlike superpowers didn't transcend the ravages of age, the coaches didn't dare not start him. He hurt his team.
Don't start with the hero-worship, either. Watch the films.
Reed is a Hall-of Famer who can still play. Check out those words: He can still play...just not as well.
Ozzie knows what Ravens fans and even some of the guys on NFL Radio can't face up to: He's lost half his defense and more. Players say "It happens every year". They lie to themselves. You don't lose around 33% of your starters every year, people!
The Ravens are in cap hell and Ozzie knows he has to take a step back, get young players on the field so they can develop, and that his team probably can't even contend until after Reed is done.
The Browns know that they're about a year behind the Bengals (and now ahead of the Ravens and Stoolers by the way--read it and weep). They have a shot at the Division this season, but they have questions at quarterback and in the secondary. In reality, Cribbs is fading--that's the truth--and they want to get their young guys in there.
Ben Watson gets concussions. Cameron is in his third season. Phil wanted too much, and you just have to wonder how long any human can last--probably through '13, but beyond that? Can you guarantee money a year out with that risk?
2: You can erroneously assume that Paul Kruger can't stop the run, but please, for the love of Pete, quit saying he's not big enough to hold up against it! I can't believe this stuff!
3: Gil Brandt says that he's never seen a draft like this before. He says that there's no difference, quality-wise, between the 11th player and the 50th player. He also says that all of those players are "very good", including many day one starters.
For logical, objective people, that presents a conundrum. If Milliner is there at 6, most fans would automaticly just take him. He fills a position of real need, and instantly gives the Browns possibly the best CB tandem in the NFL.
All other thoughts shut down. Emotion takes over. Take Milliner no matter what.
Even if somebody offers a middle first and a middle second and change for the pick? YES, you scream, pounding your fist on the table, drooling a little.
Now wait. There are three other cornerbacks in this draft who are almost as good as Milliner. If he's a 9.7, all of them are 9.something. For our purposes here, you have no doubt decided that EJ Manuel sucks, but you will change your mind if Milliner doesn't fall to 6.
This is what Brandt said, basicly. If the top ten are 9.5's, you have 8.8-plusses all the way down to fifty in most position groups. So you couldn't somehow live with Trufant and a stud guard, top free safety, or maybe Manuel instead of Milliner alone? You wouldn't take two top-flight starters over the one guy?
Are you out of your damn mind? Are you the same people who are calling guard, slot corner, and wide reciever "needs"? How can you hallucinate all these "needs" and then want one new starter instead of two (or maybe one and a project quarterback if it's Manuel)?
That's Cleveland for you! Milliner is God, Trufant sucks. Have you got a Josh Cribbs shrine in your john, with candles and stuff too?
Of course, if they can't get a second-rounder (at least), sure! Take Milliner and I'll celebrate with you because this guy really is "all that" and would put this defense near the top instantly.
It's just that Trufant and another player of similar quality instead, that's better!
But the trade-down is unlikely, since most GM's think like me, and will just take their second-best cornerback and be happy.
Thursday, March 21, 2013
Tight End Corrections
Who said Kellen Davis, of signed, would leapfrog over Jordon Cameron and start? Who told you that?
Oh, I know! It's because after not going to the Pro Bowl last season, you figure the raw converted wide reciever must be a bust!
You know, he was hurt once, therefore has a "history of injuries" and is "injury-prone", right? And we saw all there was to see last season, since players never get better between years two and three, right? And if he was any good at all, he would have put Ben Watson on the bench, right?
You people.
Clearly, Chud thinks he can fix Davis's hands, and knows that he can block. Banner figures he can buy a cheap, low-risk flyer on him and hope that Chud is right.
He'd be signed here to compete, and maybe get cut if he doesn't catch better.
Jordon Cameron is the presumptive starter here, whether butterfingers is signed or not. If their leveraged gamble pays off and he beats Cameron, the projected starter, out then wow they got great depth there!
More likely, though, the guy would be number two or three and mostly block.
Why oh why do you hate Cameron so much? Can you comprehend that Chudzinski, the former tight end, knows better?
Sure, a proven stud (if he's not an overpriced geezer) would make us all feel better, since Cameron has only had a chance to show some flashes so far, and you can't take any of that to the bank. It's also possible that he's not durable enough.
But this guy, Davis? No, he's not here to leapfrog over a guy with astronomical upside entering his third season.
Congratualtions-that's at least worth a bronze medal in the Conclusion Leap.
Oh, I know! It's because after not going to the Pro Bowl last season, you figure the raw converted wide reciever must be a bust!
You know, he was hurt once, therefore has a "history of injuries" and is "injury-prone", right? And we saw all there was to see last season, since players never get better between years two and three, right? And if he was any good at all, he would have put Ben Watson on the bench, right?
You people.
Clearly, Chud thinks he can fix Davis's hands, and knows that he can block. Banner figures he can buy a cheap, low-risk flyer on him and hope that Chud is right.
He'd be signed here to compete, and maybe get cut if he doesn't catch better.
Jordon Cameron is the presumptive starter here, whether butterfingers is signed or not. If their leveraged gamble pays off and he beats Cameron, the projected starter, out then wow they got great depth there!
More likely, though, the guy would be number two or three and mostly block.
Why oh why do you hate Cameron so much? Can you comprehend that Chudzinski, the former tight end, knows better?
Sure, a proven stud (if he's not an overpriced geezer) would make us all feel better, since Cameron has only had a chance to show some flashes so far, and you can't take any of that to the bank. It's also possible that he's not durable enough.
But this guy, Davis? No, he's not here to leapfrog over a guy with astronomical upside entering his third season.
Congratualtions-that's at least worth a bronze medal in the Conclusion Leap.
Tuesday, March 19, 2013
Geno Smith, EJ Manuel and the Oxbow Browns
Geno Smith now gets a private workout for the Browns. Don't panic, people! It could only mean that they'll draft him at number six! Hahaha! ...ooh, you kiss your mother with that mouth? Take a pill!
Seriously, you don't know he's not franchise material! You just know that a lot of people have said he might not be! You read and hear this stuff, and the next thing I know I hear you calling in to NFL Radio regurgitating what you just heard and pretending you thought it up yourself!
Admit it!
And you regurgitate other stuff from ancient history: "If you miss on a quarterback that high you set your franchise back for years."
I guess you slept through the terms of the new CBA. You see, this is no longer true. Teams are no longer forced to pay a massive, huge premium for drafted quarterbacks. Before, drafting Smith at number six would have meant you've got to play him a quadrillion dollars, or at least maybe 15-20% of your salary cap.
If he failed, now you probably have to do it again: Draft another one high and pay him a quadrillion dollars too. The real pain is that the one that fell on his face makes too much money, and you have to dump him, and eat some guaranteed ("dead") money, so he's still keeping you from signing good players after he's gone. You go to salary-cap hell!
Now, a sixth overall quarterback gets basicly the same contract as a sixth overall guard or OLB or whatever. If he fails, it doesn't set you back any further financially than if any other player fails.
Naturally, if you blow a sixth overall pick, that hurts. You had better get an impact player there.
However, you need to be objective, and consider risk/reward here: He's a quarterback. If he succeeds, you could win the Superbowl because of him. If any other position player, including running back or wide reciever, succeeds, you might just get to the playoffs and lose immediately because your quarterback doesn't come through.
If the slotted, reasonably-priced quarterback fails, it's no more harmful in the long run than if an Ansah or a Warmack suffers a carreer-ending injury. It's bad, but you can recover-sometimes on one year. Further, if the quarterback isn't ready now, he's not being paid too much to understudy for awhile.
And what are the odds? Well, I found out that during Geno Smith's five-game "collapse" during his senior season, his defense coughed up an average of 49 points/game, and he threw for 16 touchdowns and four interceptions. Is scoring 3.2 touchdowns per-game a collapse? I don't get it. Maybe they mean averaging 3.2 instead of 5 or 6---that must be it!
He can run the read-option. He's obsessive. He improved steadily until his...collapse...(maybe it's because he didn't play defense and reduce the 49 points/game? Or run out and catch his own passes, perhaps?)
Ah! during that stretch they say he locked onto his recievers, so that the defenders could read him. He didn't reset his feet, and too often threw off-balance. After making great progress, he reverted to an earlier, less-polished version of himself. Ok that I respect.
So how did he score 3.2 touchdowns/game? Usually this sort of report happens when two or fewer games (or halves) are zeroed in on, and the scout bases his report on this one or two percent of his carreer. (I don't know--I'm guessing. It was a draft-guide scout, and they skew stuff like this a lot. Mike Mayock is vastly superior.)
Even if this is a valid report based on 3 or more whole games, all of these mechanical flaws are not only correctable, but have been self-corrected. The regression was anomolous and temporary. So he took a step back. Big deal. Geno Smith looks better the more you look (without bias).
It took awhile, but Mike Mayock finally caught up to me (blush-blush) and ranked EJ Manuel number two behind Smith. Despite what the talking heads predict, I doubt that this guy will make it to the second round. This is a real longshot, but it's even concievable that the Browns draft him at six. Or preferably trade down if they can.
Smith might not last, but even if he does, they might determine that Manuel has greater upside than Smith, and the plan would be to give him a clipboard and the scout team for his first season while Weeden sinks or swims.
Manuel's only issue is deep accuracy. http://secondroundstats.com/ is an awesome site which crunches situational stats, and gives you a much more accurate statistical look at players at all positions. I love this guy!
The one problem I had with this analyst is that in Manuel's breakdown, he cites his 80-plus completion percentage on intermediate routes, then a way below average percentage on throws over 20 yards...and says the intermediate throws might be the anomoly! The guy threw like five times as many intermediates!
I've cited why I love EJ Manuel. He's a prototype. As smart as Smith, with a similar arm, a tad slower and way, way bigger. And this guy absolutely comes through when the chips are down, every single time.
ChudNorv's will be done (and no freaking way Lombardi/Banner can force a quarterback on them they don't want--stop that crap right now jeezzzz!). But try not to make too big a fool of yourself if they take one of these two guys.
BOOO! I CAN BELIEVE THEY TOOK THAT BUM MCNABB! HE SUCKS! WE'RE DOOMED! BOOOO! AH SAY WE HAING 'EM!
Seriously, you don't know he's not franchise material! You just know that a lot of people have said he might not be! You read and hear this stuff, and the next thing I know I hear you calling in to NFL Radio regurgitating what you just heard and pretending you thought it up yourself!
Admit it!
And you regurgitate other stuff from ancient history: "If you miss on a quarterback that high you set your franchise back for years."
I guess you slept through the terms of the new CBA. You see, this is no longer true. Teams are no longer forced to pay a massive, huge premium for drafted quarterbacks. Before, drafting Smith at number six would have meant you've got to play him a quadrillion dollars, or at least maybe 15-20% of your salary cap.
If he failed, now you probably have to do it again: Draft another one high and pay him a quadrillion dollars too. The real pain is that the one that fell on his face makes too much money, and you have to dump him, and eat some guaranteed ("dead") money, so he's still keeping you from signing good players after he's gone. You go to salary-cap hell!
Now, a sixth overall quarterback gets basicly the same contract as a sixth overall guard or OLB or whatever. If he fails, it doesn't set you back any further financially than if any other player fails.
Naturally, if you blow a sixth overall pick, that hurts. You had better get an impact player there.
However, you need to be objective, and consider risk/reward here: He's a quarterback. If he succeeds, you could win the Superbowl because of him. If any other position player, including running back or wide reciever, succeeds, you might just get to the playoffs and lose immediately because your quarterback doesn't come through.
If the slotted, reasonably-priced quarterback fails, it's no more harmful in the long run than if an Ansah or a Warmack suffers a carreer-ending injury. It's bad, but you can recover-sometimes on one year. Further, if the quarterback isn't ready now, he's not being paid too much to understudy for awhile.
And what are the odds? Well, I found out that during Geno Smith's five-game "collapse" during his senior season, his defense coughed up an average of 49 points/game, and he threw for 16 touchdowns and four interceptions. Is scoring 3.2 touchdowns per-game a collapse? I don't get it. Maybe they mean averaging 3.2 instead of 5 or 6---that must be it!
He can run the read-option. He's obsessive. He improved steadily until his...collapse...(maybe it's because he didn't play defense and reduce the 49 points/game? Or run out and catch his own passes, perhaps?)
Ah! during that stretch they say he locked onto his recievers, so that the defenders could read him. He didn't reset his feet, and too often threw off-balance. After making great progress, he reverted to an earlier, less-polished version of himself. Ok that I respect.
So how did he score 3.2 touchdowns/game? Usually this sort of report happens when two or fewer games (or halves) are zeroed in on, and the scout bases his report on this one or two percent of his carreer. (I don't know--I'm guessing. It was a draft-guide scout, and they skew stuff like this a lot. Mike Mayock is vastly superior.)
Even if this is a valid report based on 3 or more whole games, all of these mechanical flaws are not only correctable, but have been self-corrected. The regression was anomolous and temporary. So he took a step back. Big deal. Geno Smith looks better the more you look (without bias).
It took awhile, but Mike Mayock finally caught up to me (blush-blush) and ranked EJ Manuel number two behind Smith. Despite what the talking heads predict, I doubt that this guy will make it to the second round. This is a real longshot, but it's even concievable that the Browns draft him at six. Or preferably trade down if they can.
Smith might not last, but even if he does, they might determine that Manuel has greater upside than Smith, and the plan would be to give him a clipboard and the scout team for his first season while Weeden sinks or swims.
Manuel's only issue is deep accuracy. http://secondroundstats.com/ is an awesome site which crunches situational stats, and gives you a much more accurate statistical look at players at all positions. I love this guy!
The one problem I had with this analyst is that in Manuel's breakdown, he cites his 80-plus completion percentage on intermediate routes, then a way below average percentage on throws over 20 yards...and says the intermediate throws might be the anomoly! The guy threw like five times as many intermediates!
I've cited why I love EJ Manuel. He's a prototype. As smart as Smith, with a similar arm, a tad slower and way, way bigger. And this guy absolutely comes through when the chips are down, every single time.
ChudNorv's will be done (and no freaking way Lombardi/Banner can force a quarterback on them they don't want--stop that crap right now jeezzzz!). But try not to make too big a fool of yourself if they take one of these two guys.
BOOO! I CAN BELIEVE THEY TOOK THAT BUM MCNABB! HE SUCKS! WE'RE DOOMED! BOOOO! AH SAY WE HAING 'EM!
Sunday, March 17, 2013
Browns' Need Corrections
Tight End: Tony, it's not at all accurate to say that the Browns lack a playmaking tight end. Jordon Cameron was a very raw prospect when he was drafted only two seasons ago. He was drafted specificly for his big-play potential.
You'd normally give even a more experienced prospect his rookie season to develop and adapt to the NFL. With Ben Watson and Smith on that roster, Jordon was all but a "redshirt" during his rookie season.
In his second season, he saw limited action and made some plays. In his third, he'll obviously do more. Hell, this is why you don't judge a draft until after the third season following it. The third year is when even the more polished skill players hit their strides!
Cameron's emergence as more than just a good all-around tight end (who blocks well, incidentally), isn't certain, and Brad Smelley could be an H-back, but not a true tight end. No guarantees there either. So the Browns need more depth here, for sure. And of course they should do as they are doing, and go for the best available free agents.
The guy they signed is solid. Not done yet.
Fullback: Tony, how exactly do you know that Brad Smelley can't become a blocking fullback? He is fast, he is short, and and he can get stronger. Who knows?
Of course, you could accidentally be right in writing the guy off, and the Browns might indeed need a blocking fullback. Fortunately, those come cheap in the draft.
Running Back: Haha.
Quarterback: As I wrote in the previous blog, I believe that Weeden will do much better in his second season, with a friendlier system, and with two coaches who are not Martonian blockheads. But no guarantee here either. Nor are the other two quarterbacks good fits in this aggressive vertical system.
Tackle/Center: Yeah right.
Guard: Contrary to popular belief, this is at the bottom of the priority list. Certainly the staff knows that this position could use an upgrade, but Greco is solid and third year guy Pinkston will be improved. (And he should be back healthy).
One upgrade could already be on the roster. Ryan Miller is a beast. He's listed on last season's depth chart behind Schwartze at right tackle, and with his height and build is a better prospect at that position. But he has played guard at a high level, and in his second season will certainly get his shot to crack the starting lineup at guard.
Why do you write these guys off before they've even had a chance?
Wide reciever: At last the talk of a vedderrunn wide reciever to menndorr the young guys has died down somewhat. Little enters his third season, Rodney Norwoodfield his fourth, and the others their second.
They have deep threats in Norwood and Benjamin from the slot, and Gordon outside.
You rant about Mike Wallace for his 40 time, but you need to see some iso tapes on Gordon. His start out of the blocks is just okay, but after two steps nobody can run with him. Wallace would beat him in the 40, but not in the 100.
Little has fine speed for a man his size, and can even go deep himself.
This "veteran" stuff has been around forever. Certain positions like outside linebacker, cornerback, and free safety involve a lot of reading, deception, and dirty tricks. It's good to have a veteran around to show the whippersnappers those ropes.
But wide recievers can't benefit from that as much. Their job is A: to get open and B: to catch the ball. Learning to read a cornerback presnap can be coached or learned in film study, but other than that and working out extra hard, what can be learned from a vet?
Tony would say that the quarterback needs a proven, reliable security blanket sort of target. But once again, you ass ume that none of the guys on the current roster are or will become that guy.
I'm sure that if they think a wide reciever is special, they'll try to nab him, but this is NOT a position of need.
Nose tackle: Hahahahaha!
Defensive end: Stop it you're killing me!
OLB: It would be nice to have a superstud, which is why if Milliner were gone and Ansah isn't, they still might grab him at number six (or as I said to Bub even Warmack or Smith). But need? No way.
Some pro and amatuer pundits point out that you need four for injuries and the rotation. Others point out that none of these guys might be superstars. This is Cleveland. A player can't just be pretty good here. You have to be a Pro Bowler, or you're not good enough.
In the real world GM's inhabit, they know that there's only so many superstars to go around, and that most of their starters, if they're lucky, will be just pretty good.
To go with Groves, Kruger and (if he's not traded) Sheard, there are Gocong, Hall Davis, and Austin English. Davis hasn't been tried yet but has the tools (might be the next Groves), and English is a big linebacker with a college history full of sacks and TFL's, who was emerging as a 4-3 stud when injured.
You need four, you got six. If two don't pan out, that's convenient, but it's much more likely that you'll have to move or release a pretty good player.
ILB: There are two types in a 3-4. WIL is a run-and-hit guy protected from guards and centers by alignment. Next to him on the strong side usually is the thumper, who is bigger and stronger, and can take on guards in the hole or in space.
Jackson, Robertson, Fort, Tank Carder project to WIL. Gocong, English, and Davis project to be the thumper (if not something else). James Micheal Johnson might fit both positions, though WIL might be best for him.
There is a problem with inside linebacker, as there is with outside linebacker here. They have too many.
Cornerback: Bingo. But if course this has been distorted too. Trevin Wade was a rookie last season, and has the potential to become a damn good cover corner. His issue is inconsistancy, but if he can eliminate the bad spells, he can do it. Of course that's 50/50, and you can't count on it. The Browns need at least a pretty good corner to play opposite Haden.
They probably don't need a slot corner. While Skrine got toasted outside, his quickness and speed are effective inside. Bademosi is also a potential sleeper, outside, inside, and at either safety. But who knows?
Strong safety: TJ Ward is fine, and there is depth here.
Free Safety: This looks like a need, but in addition to Bademosi, Tashaun Gipson could already be the answer. He was used little last season, but was the star of preseason with picks and breakups. I was fooled into thinking that he had earned the starting role by making all the other contenders look bad by comparison. Silly me.
Now he's had a full season of splinter-collecting and a full offseason of simmering, and is no doubt reading and hearing about how he doesn't exist. Give me 5:2 and I'd bet on him. Ray Horton won't make any mistakes at this position, and if Gipson does again what he did last preseason, he will play.
Of course, they have to make sure, so they're trying to get a proven safety now. If somebody is better than Gipson, fine.
The kicker and punter stuff I can't really get interested in, but Benjamin will be a fine returner, Norwood can do it, Skrine can return, and really there are a load of them.
HOLES: A position occupied by an average or above player is not a hole, or a need. A hole is where the position is filled by a bad player DO YOU UNDERSTAND?
Assuming Turner needs three tight ends, they need to get at least one more. They don't need any wide recievers. They don't need guards. They need a quarterback. They need a cornerback. They probably need a fullback. They probably need a free safety. They could use some other stuff, but don't need it, ok?
Like Warmack. They don't need him, but could sure use him. I mean, would TRich sans broken ribs running behind that offensive line be scary or what? Or Ansah. Him opposite Kruger? But Milliner trumps both, because they need him!
Hope Tony's right and he's still there, or...Geno Smith...ya never know...
You'd normally give even a more experienced prospect his rookie season to develop and adapt to the NFL. With Ben Watson and Smith on that roster, Jordon was all but a "redshirt" during his rookie season.
In his second season, he saw limited action and made some plays. In his third, he'll obviously do more. Hell, this is why you don't judge a draft until after the third season following it. The third year is when even the more polished skill players hit their strides!
Cameron's emergence as more than just a good all-around tight end (who blocks well, incidentally), isn't certain, and Brad Smelley could be an H-back, but not a true tight end. No guarantees there either. So the Browns need more depth here, for sure. And of course they should do as they are doing, and go for the best available free agents.
The guy they signed is solid. Not done yet.
Fullback: Tony, how exactly do you know that Brad Smelley can't become a blocking fullback? He is fast, he is short, and and he can get stronger. Who knows?
Of course, you could accidentally be right in writing the guy off, and the Browns might indeed need a blocking fullback. Fortunately, those come cheap in the draft.
Running Back: Haha.
Quarterback: As I wrote in the previous blog, I believe that Weeden will do much better in his second season, with a friendlier system, and with two coaches who are not Martonian blockheads. But no guarantee here either. Nor are the other two quarterbacks good fits in this aggressive vertical system.
Tackle/Center: Yeah right.
Guard: Contrary to popular belief, this is at the bottom of the priority list. Certainly the staff knows that this position could use an upgrade, but Greco is solid and third year guy Pinkston will be improved. (And he should be back healthy).
One upgrade could already be on the roster. Ryan Miller is a beast. He's listed on last season's depth chart behind Schwartze at right tackle, and with his height and build is a better prospect at that position. But he has played guard at a high level, and in his second season will certainly get his shot to crack the starting lineup at guard.
Why do you write these guys off before they've even had a chance?
Wide reciever: At last the talk of a vedderrunn wide reciever to menndorr the young guys has died down somewhat. Little enters his third season, Rodney Norwoodfield his fourth, and the others their second.
They have deep threats in Norwood and Benjamin from the slot, and Gordon outside.
You rant about Mike Wallace for his 40 time, but you need to see some iso tapes on Gordon. His start out of the blocks is just okay, but after two steps nobody can run with him. Wallace would beat him in the 40, but not in the 100.
Little has fine speed for a man his size, and can even go deep himself.
This "veteran" stuff has been around forever. Certain positions like outside linebacker, cornerback, and free safety involve a lot of reading, deception, and dirty tricks. It's good to have a veteran around to show the whippersnappers those ropes.
But wide recievers can't benefit from that as much. Their job is A: to get open and B: to catch the ball. Learning to read a cornerback presnap can be coached or learned in film study, but other than that and working out extra hard, what can be learned from a vet?
Tony would say that the quarterback needs a proven, reliable security blanket sort of target. But once again, you ass ume that none of the guys on the current roster are or will become that guy.
I'm sure that if they think a wide reciever is special, they'll try to nab him, but this is NOT a position of need.
Nose tackle: Hahahahaha!
Defensive end: Stop it you're killing me!
OLB: It would be nice to have a superstud, which is why if Milliner were gone and Ansah isn't, they still might grab him at number six (or as I said to Bub even Warmack or Smith). But need? No way.
Some pro and amatuer pundits point out that you need four for injuries and the rotation. Others point out that none of these guys might be superstars. This is Cleveland. A player can't just be pretty good here. You have to be a Pro Bowler, or you're not good enough.
In the real world GM's inhabit, they know that there's only so many superstars to go around, and that most of their starters, if they're lucky, will be just pretty good.
To go with Groves, Kruger and (if he's not traded) Sheard, there are Gocong, Hall Davis, and Austin English. Davis hasn't been tried yet but has the tools (might be the next Groves), and English is a big linebacker with a college history full of sacks and TFL's, who was emerging as a 4-3 stud when injured.
You need four, you got six. If two don't pan out, that's convenient, but it's much more likely that you'll have to move or release a pretty good player.
ILB: There are two types in a 3-4. WIL is a run-and-hit guy protected from guards and centers by alignment. Next to him on the strong side usually is the thumper, who is bigger and stronger, and can take on guards in the hole or in space.
Jackson, Robertson, Fort, Tank Carder project to WIL. Gocong, English, and Davis project to be the thumper (if not something else). James Micheal Johnson might fit both positions, though WIL might be best for him.
There is a problem with inside linebacker, as there is with outside linebacker here. They have too many.
Cornerback: Bingo. But if course this has been distorted too. Trevin Wade was a rookie last season, and has the potential to become a damn good cover corner. His issue is inconsistancy, but if he can eliminate the bad spells, he can do it. Of course that's 50/50, and you can't count on it. The Browns need at least a pretty good corner to play opposite Haden.
They probably don't need a slot corner. While Skrine got toasted outside, his quickness and speed are effective inside. Bademosi is also a potential sleeper, outside, inside, and at either safety. But who knows?
Strong safety: TJ Ward is fine, and there is depth here.
Free Safety: This looks like a need, but in addition to Bademosi, Tashaun Gipson could already be the answer. He was used little last season, but was the star of preseason with picks and breakups. I was fooled into thinking that he had earned the starting role by making all the other contenders look bad by comparison. Silly me.
Now he's had a full season of splinter-collecting and a full offseason of simmering, and is no doubt reading and hearing about how he doesn't exist. Give me 5:2 and I'd bet on him. Ray Horton won't make any mistakes at this position, and if Gipson does again what he did last preseason, he will play.
Of course, they have to make sure, so they're trying to get a proven safety now. If somebody is better than Gipson, fine.
The kicker and punter stuff I can't really get interested in, but Benjamin will be a fine returner, Norwood can do it, Skrine can return, and really there are a load of them.
HOLES: A position occupied by an average or above player is not a hole, or a need. A hole is where the position is filled by a bad player DO YOU UNDERSTAND?
Assuming Turner needs three tight ends, they need to get at least one more. They don't need any wide recievers. They don't need guards. They need a quarterback. They need a cornerback. They probably need a fullback. They probably need a free safety. They could use some other stuff, but don't need it, ok?
Like Warmack. They don't need him, but could sure use him. I mean, would TRich sans broken ribs running behind that offensive line be scary or what? Or Ansah. Him opposite Kruger? But Milliner trumps both, because they need him!
Hope Tony's right and he's still there, or...Geno Smith...ya never know...
Saturday, March 16, 2013
What About Brandon?
This is all educated guesswork. I've collected enough input to put this together, but could be a little or a lot wrong:
You'll recall that Weeden was putrid in his inaugural game vs. the Eagles. But then, he rallied during the next few games, and looked like a talented rookie doing as well as could be reasonably expected, given his impaired rookie running back, raw rookie reciever, and the complexity of Shurmer's West Coast offense.
Then, he hit a wall. This is when he refused to throw "on time", and then even to obviously wide open recievers, and ate it or threw it away after seven or more seconds.
Well, my theory is rather involved, so I'll try to break it down into chunks:
1: After a few games, enemy defensive coordinators and individual corners and safeties had some film on him/this Browns' West Coast offense. The coordinators made adjustments in their coverages, and the individual players made their own adjustments.
One of these was to jump routes.
Remember, this is a timing offense. They knew that Weeden was a gunslinger in college not ideally suited to this offense, so he had to be mechanical and predictable in his reads, and that, as a rookie, he would be slow to change in response to adversity.
One cornerback did his homework. He knew that if this reciever did this, and this reciever did that, his reciever was the primary target. If he ran a certain way, the reciever would break his route of exactly here, and the ball would be on it's way to here, so he set it up and broke to that spot for a pick or at least a deflection at the right time.
2: I project here: I am lazy. Brandon is certainly not as lazy as me, but (I believe) is not as obsessively dedicated as every great quarterback is, and (I believe) didn't cope with this stuff as he should have. (I suspect, maybe).
The correct reaction would be to spend 6-10 more hours in the film room each week studying the upcoming individual opponent as intensely as they had studied him, concentrating on breakups and interceptions. As they had studied him for "tells", he could study them in coverage.
This cornerback looked down--he was checking out the yard-markers, getting ready to make his move. He drifted away a little, setting up his break. He slowed down before he would have, had he not known what was coming...
2a: He reacted as at least the younger me would have reacted, ie: "This is bullshit".
2c: Not having been a good soldier in an offense he hated and in which he knew he didn't belong, he grew hesitant. He stopped throwing before the break. Every cornerback and safety looked like he was about to jump the route.
3: He's supposed to check down, and he did. But it was happening too fast. He looked to the secondary reciever, and quickly had to read that coverage and decide in a split second, and just couldn't pull the trigger.
It mushroomed. He's blown the throw now, and had to improvise, but the passrushers were closing and he had to move. He kept his eyes downfield as he was supposed to, and he even saw guys who were open but
4: Throughout his college carreer, he hit guys who were open, but in the NFL (unless it's a Romeo Crennel defense) nobody gets that open. It looked to Brandon like everybody was Ed Reed, and he was everywhere.
He lost his confidence. He no longer trusted his own judgement. He ate the ball, threw it out of bounds, or tried an Elway/Montana/RG3 throw while running--and he aint them.
5: Much of this is on Shurmer. While the Shanahans, Chud, the guys in Seattle, and even Bruce Arians in Indi tweaked their offenses to help their unique rookie quarterbacks transition to the NFL, Square-Peg Shurmer made no adjustments whatsoever to help his shotgun gunslinger. He also proudly announced that he would run his entire telephone-book playbook from day one--no coddling here, by God!
6: The West Coast offense covers the breadth of the field from three to twenty yards deep. The recievers slant and cross steeply within that range, with rarely more than one, and often none, going deeper. Sneaky zone corners and safeties lurk in this congestion, poised to ruin Brandon's day.
Joe Montana was once asked what was the one thing that helped him the most, and he said it was his vision. According to Joe, he had excellent peripheral vision, and could look straight upfield and see all the recievers running all their patterns. For him, there was no checking down. He just picked out the best-looking pairing, and didn't even turn his head to until he was starting his throw.
That's rare, and Brandon doesn't see like that. Hell, he was a pitcher, so whereas Montana might be said to have fish-eye lenses, Weeden's got zoom lens eyes! He's snapping his head left and right, scanning and refocusing, and saying to himself this is bullshit this is bullshit this is bullshit...
He was probably angry. He probably stated his case to Shurmer, and Shurmer probably said something like "This has worked for a lot of different quarterbacks. It's a very successful system. It just takes awhile to learn. Hang in there. It will come to you."
...and made no adjustments whatsoever. The 22 year-old Weeden might have accepted this, but the 29-year old walked out angrier, and the frustration made it harder for him.
7: The Turner/Chud offense does rely on timing, but the routes are almost universally deeper, with rare crosses and mostly slants (including some zigzags). Because of this focus farther upfield, the quarterback has to see closer to 90 than to 140 degrees.
The quarterback doesn't have to reset his feet as often because of these decreased angles.
8: Weeden was a shotgun quarterback. You can't run too much shotgun in the NFL because it's hard to run from that set-up. The back gets the ball deep in the backfield, and the defense is already penetrating and converging on the quarterback.
But the pistol is a half-shotgun. The quarterback gets the ball right about where he would be after taking a snap under center back three to five steps, and you can run from this just as you would conventionally. And this offense will (trust me) use a lot of pistol. (Note: The pistol is NOT the read-option, ok?)
9: The shallower angles of the slants and deeper patterns make it nearly impossible for any sneaky bastards to jump routes or otherwise con the quarterback or manipulate the recievers.
They can try shell coverage to keep everything in front of them, but this sets up Brandon's favorite pattern: the come-back. And he'll do that all day! And slants are fine, now that they're not all right in front of him, and he clearly sees a beaten cornerback and a safety too far away to help.
10: The Turner/Chud passing offense is slower-moving by design. This is why the fullback or at least an H-back is needed, along with top-flight pass-protection. This is why a strong running game is mandatory; to prevent the defense from sending two or more blitzers every time.
In conclusion, I believe that Brandon Weeden can succeed in 2013.
...or Ryan Mallett.
You'll recall that Weeden was putrid in his inaugural game vs. the Eagles. But then, he rallied during the next few games, and looked like a talented rookie doing as well as could be reasonably expected, given his impaired rookie running back, raw rookie reciever, and the complexity of Shurmer's West Coast offense.
Then, he hit a wall. This is when he refused to throw "on time", and then even to obviously wide open recievers, and ate it or threw it away after seven or more seconds.
Well, my theory is rather involved, so I'll try to break it down into chunks:
1: After a few games, enemy defensive coordinators and individual corners and safeties had some film on him/this Browns' West Coast offense. The coordinators made adjustments in their coverages, and the individual players made their own adjustments.
One of these was to jump routes.
Remember, this is a timing offense. They knew that Weeden was a gunslinger in college not ideally suited to this offense, so he had to be mechanical and predictable in his reads, and that, as a rookie, he would be slow to change in response to adversity.
One cornerback did his homework. He knew that if this reciever did this, and this reciever did that, his reciever was the primary target. If he ran a certain way, the reciever would break his route of exactly here, and the ball would be on it's way to here, so he set it up and broke to that spot for a pick or at least a deflection at the right time.
2: I project here: I am lazy. Brandon is certainly not as lazy as me, but (I believe) is not as obsessively dedicated as every great quarterback is, and (I believe) didn't cope with this stuff as he should have. (I suspect, maybe).
The correct reaction would be to spend 6-10 more hours in the film room each week studying the upcoming individual opponent as intensely as they had studied him, concentrating on breakups and interceptions. As they had studied him for "tells", he could study them in coverage.
This cornerback looked down--he was checking out the yard-markers, getting ready to make his move. He drifted away a little, setting up his break. He slowed down before he would have, had he not known what was coming...
2a: He reacted as at least the younger me would have reacted, ie: "This is bullshit".
2c: Not having been a good soldier in an offense he hated and in which he knew he didn't belong, he grew hesitant. He stopped throwing before the break. Every cornerback and safety looked like he was about to jump the route.
3: He's supposed to check down, and he did. But it was happening too fast. He looked to the secondary reciever, and quickly had to read that coverage and decide in a split second, and just couldn't pull the trigger.
It mushroomed. He's blown the throw now, and had to improvise, but the passrushers were closing and he had to move. He kept his eyes downfield as he was supposed to, and he even saw guys who were open but
4: Throughout his college carreer, he hit guys who were open, but in the NFL (unless it's a Romeo Crennel defense) nobody gets that open. It looked to Brandon like everybody was Ed Reed, and he was everywhere.
He lost his confidence. He no longer trusted his own judgement. He ate the ball, threw it out of bounds, or tried an Elway/Montana/RG3 throw while running--and he aint them.
5: Much of this is on Shurmer. While the Shanahans, Chud, the guys in Seattle, and even Bruce Arians in Indi tweaked their offenses to help their unique rookie quarterbacks transition to the NFL, Square-Peg Shurmer made no adjustments whatsoever to help his shotgun gunslinger. He also proudly announced that he would run his entire telephone-book playbook from day one--no coddling here, by God!
6: The West Coast offense covers the breadth of the field from three to twenty yards deep. The recievers slant and cross steeply within that range, with rarely more than one, and often none, going deeper. Sneaky zone corners and safeties lurk in this congestion, poised to ruin Brandon's day.
Joe Montana was once asked what was the one thing that helped him the most, and he said it was his vision. According to Joe, he had excellent peripheral vision, and could look straight upfield and see all the recievers running all their patterns. For him, there was no checking down. He just picked out the best-looking pairing, and didn't even turn his head to until he was starting his throw.
That's rare, and Brandon doesn't see like that. Hell, he was a pitcher, so whereas Montana might be said to have fish-eye lenses, Weeden's got zoom lens eyes! He's snapping his head left and right, scanning and refocusing, and saying to himself this is bullshit this is bullshit this is bullshit...
He was probably angry. He probably stated his case to Shurmer, and Shurmer probably said something like "This has worked for a lot of different quarterbacks. It's a very successful system. It just takes awhile to learn. Hang in there. It will come to you."
...and made no adjustments whatsoever. The 22 year-old Weeden might have accepted this, but the 29-year old walked out angrier, and the frustration made it harder for him.
7: The Turner/Chud offense does rely on timing, but the routes are almost universally deeper, with rare crosses and mostly slants (including some zigzags). Because of this focus farther upfield, the quarterback has to see closer to 90 than to 140 degrees.
The quarterback doesn't have to reset his feet as often because of these decreased angles.
8: Weeden was a shotgun quarterback. You can't run too much shotgun in the NFL because it's hard to run from that set-up. The back gets the ball deep in the backfield, and the defense is already penetrating and converging on the quarterback.
But the pistol is a half-shotgun. The quarterback gets the ball right about where he would be after taking a snap under center back three to five steps, and you can run from this just as you would conventionally. And this offense will (trust me) use a lot of pistol. (Note: The pistol is NOT the read-option, ok?)
9: The shallower angles of the slants and deeper patterns make it nearly impossible for any sneaky bastards to jump routes or otherwise con the quarterback or manipulate the recievers.
They can try shell coverage to keep everything in front of them, but this sets up Brandon's favorite pattern: the come-back. And he'll do that all day! And slants are fine, now that they're not all right in front of him, and he clearly sees a beaten cornerback and a safety too far away to help.
10: The Turner/Chud passing offense is slower-moving by design. This is why the fullback or at least an H-back is needed, along with top-flight pass-protection. This is why a strong running game is mandatory; to prevent the defense from sending two or more blitzers every time.
In conclusion, I believe that Brandon Weeden can succeed in 2013.
...or Ryan Mallett.
Thursday, March 14, 2013
3-4 Linebacker Corrections
1: Billy Winn and Rubin are not, and will never be, linebackers.
2: Hall Davis, Austin English, and Chris Gocong will be given a chance to play outside linebacker by Ray Horton, and all three have a very good chance to succeed.
3: All three of these players are also potential SAM ILB's in this defense. And let me just anticipate you here: Phil Taylor is not, and will never be, a linebacker.
4: James Micheal-Johnson will play one or both of the ILB spots.
5: Acho, Fort, Robertson and even Maiaiva (sp?) are candidates for the WIL (run-and-hit) linebacker spot which Jackson now fills.
While at number six the Browns still could draft one of those stud OLB's (like especially Ansah), this collection might be enough for now. The olb's aren't the only blitzers (everybody blitzes), and a Lawrence Taylor is not mandatory. Once again, the bar has been raised above the Himalayas.
If the quarterback merely competent, and a good cornerback is acquired or emerges, the team as it is can compete for a Division Title in 2013.
It can't contend for anything more without a really good quarterback, a better guard, and more TE depth. Linebacker is no longer a need. And you need eight. The Ravens might have eleven because three special teamers are linebackers, but you don't need 11. Besides, Winn and Rubin are linebackers, right?
For all you know, one or more of the guys you've so casually buried alive is the next James Harrison (except for the vicious/stupid/dirty part). Unlike you, Horton will find out. His shovel stays in the shed until needed.
If Milliner slides to six, he's it. Unless they're scheming to draft Geno Smith there. And it might indeed be Warmack--and in either case the lynch mob be damned.
Hate to say it, but the Mallet trade talk is credible. Tony Grossi's outstanding column on the subject, Here's why the Ryan Mallett-to-the-Browns rumors are not going away , convinced me. Another column on Dawgs by Nature, What is Ryan Mallet actually worth, and should the Browns be interested? , terrified me.
Mallet sounds like a Weeden clone! He just hasn't had an opportunity to eat the ball after refusing to throw to wide open recievers yet. He's got the not replanting and being inaccurate part down pat, though.
Ok but let's be fair: He's been Brady's understudy and has had the best NFL coaching for a couple years now, and didn't I just write about Turner and Chud being able to fix Weeden? Isn't it possible that Mallet is already fixed?
Keep an open mind, and forget the draft pick. Bill needs a defensive lineman.
2: Hall Davis, Austin English, and Chris Gocong will be given a chance to play outside linebacker by Ray Horton, and all three have a very good chance to succeed.
3: All three of these players are also potential SAM ILB's in this defense. And let me just anticipate you here: Phil Taylor is not, and will never be, a linebacker.
4: James Micheal-Johnson will play one or both of the ILB spots.
5: Acho, Fort, Robertson and even Maiaiva (sp?) are candidates for the WIL (run-and-hit) linebacker spot which Jackson now fills.
While at number six the Browns still could draft one of those stud OLB's (like especially Ansah), this collection might be enough for now. The olb's aren't the only blitzers (everybody blitzes), and a Lawrence Taylor is not mandatory. Once again, the bar has been raised above the Himalayas.
If the quarterback merely competent, and a good cornerback is acquired or emerges, the team as it is can compete for a Division Title in 2013.
It can't contend for anything more without a really good quarterback, a better guard, and more TE depth. Linebacker is no longer a need. And you need eight. The Ravens might have eleven because three special teamers are linebackers, but you don't need 11. Besides, Winn and Rubin are linebackers, right?
For all you know, one or more of the guys you've so casually buried alive is the next James Harrison (except for the vicious/stupid/dirty part). Unlike you, Horton will find out. His shovel stays in the shed until needed.
If Milliner slides to six, he's it. Unless they're scheming to draft Geno Smith there. And it might indeed be Warmack--and in either case the lynch mob be damned.
Hate to say it, but the Mallet trade talk is credible. Tony Grossi's outstanding column on the subject, Here's why the Ryan Mallett-to-the-Browns rumors are not going away , convinced me. Another column on Dawgs by Nature, What is Ryan Mallet actually worth, and should the Browns be interested? , terrified me.
Mallet sounds like a Weeden clone! He just hasn't had an opportunity to eat the ball after refusing to throw to wide open recievers yet. He's got the not replanting and being inaccurate part down pat, though.
Ok but let's be fair: He's been Brady's understudy and has had the best NFL coaching for a couple years now, and didn't I just write about Turner and Chud being able to fix Weeden? Isn't it possible that Mallet is already fixed?
Keep an open mind, and forget the draft pick. Bill needs a defensive lineman.
Wow, Joe Banner and Mike Lombardi Know what They're Doing!
Sorry, vendettaland, for the sacrilege about BeelzeLombardi, but I can only go what I see in the present.
1: 8 mil/year is CHEAP for Kruger. He's only twenty six! I've heard some valid questions about him. He was "quiet" for one of the playoff games, and all but 1.5 of his sacks came with Terrell Suggs on the other side. It's true. And what did Suggs himself do when he returned?
Kruger has just emerged, and still has a little upside left. He's not going to turn into Lawrence Taylor, but he's not being paid like he is.
2: Desmond Bryant is a stud, and makes a very promising 3-man/hybrid front probably the best in the NFL. It also sets up a trade possibility. As Joe Banner said, they do NOT have too many; you need six because they get tired. BUT trading Rubin and his 6 mil salary for a quarterback or a second round pick would certainly be doable.
3: Re-signing Norwood and Obg...Ob...Obie the running back shows me that these guys are smarter than those they replaced. Norwood, when injuries forced him into the slot for an extended period in 2011, instantly became McCoy's most reliable target. He got open, never dropped anything, and made extra yards. Then he was benched, and never heard from again.
Everybody raves about Benjamin's speed, but Norwood is almost as fast, and much more solidly built. He could play outside, but isn't nearly as effective there as from the slot. I only mentioned the outside part because he is valid depth.
Shurmer studiously ignored him in favor of the flashier Benjamin--to Weeden's detriment. These guys don't care if you were an undrafted free agent. If you can play, they want you.
Obi was the defacto third down back last season, for good reason. He's an ex-wide reciever. He's much bigger than most third down backs, and not as fast as most, but he gets open, he catches, and he BLOCKS. He averages 4.5 YPC and is great depth.
I've been waiting a long time for somebody who would stop kicking some of this team's best players to the curb because they weren't drafted, or simply because the coach is a blockhead.
Blockhead: You draft a shotgun gunslinger and jam him into a West Coast system that's even more complex than Bill Walsh's version. You saw how Chud changed things for Cam Newton, watched real-time as the Shanahans did the same for RG3 and Seattle for Wilson, and even as Arians tweaked things in Indi to exploit Luck's mobility, and ignored it all.
You don't even spoon feed Weeden the offense. No, he gets the whole playbook from day one! You don't change anything.
Blockhead: Ditto Chris Palmer with Tim Couch.
Oh, but here's more on Shurmer: You run a running back with broken ribs into the ground when his backup is averaging a whole yard-per-carry more than he is. Actually, that's both backups.
But I digress. Okbye.
1: 8 mil/year is CHEAP for Kruger. He's only twenty six! I've heard some valid questions about him. He was "quiet" for one of the playoff games, and all but 1.5 of his sacks came with Terrell Suggs on the other side. It's true. And what did Suggs himself do when he returned?
Kruger has just emerged, and still has a little upside left. He's not going to turn into Lawrence Taylor, but he's not being paid like he is.
2: Desmond Bryant is a stud, and makes a very promising 3-man/hybrid front probably the best in the NFL. It also sets up a trade possibility. As Joe Banner said, they do NOT have too many; you need six because they get tired. BUT trading Rubin and his 6 mil salary for a quarterback or a second round pick would certainly be doable.
3: Re-signing Norwood and Obg...Ob...Obie the running back shows me that these guys are smarter than those they replaced. Norwood, when injuries forced him into the slot for an extended period in 2011, instantly became McCoy's most reliable target. He got open, never dropped anything, and made extra yards. Then he was benched, and never heard from again.
Everybody raves about Benjamin's speed, but Norwood is almost as fast, and much more solidly built. He could play outside, but isn't nearly as effective there as from the slot. I only mentioned the outside part because he is valid depth.
Shurmer studiously ignored him in favor of the flashier Benjamin--to Weeden's detriment. These guys don't care if you were an undrafted free agent. If you can play, they want you.
Obi was the defacto third down back last season, for good reason. He's an ex-wide reciever. He's much bigger than most third down backs, and not as fast as most, but he gets open, he catches, and he BLOCKS. He averages 4.5 YPC and is great depth.
I've been waiting a long time for somebody who would stop kicking some of this team's best players to the curb because they weren't drafted, or simply because the coach is a blockhead.
Blockhead: You draft a shotgun gunslinger and jam him into a West Coast system that's even more complex than Bill Walsh's version. You saw how Chud changed things for Cam Newton, watched real-time as the Shanahans did the same for RG3 and Seattle for Wilson, and even as Arians tweaked things in Indi to exploit Luck's mobility, and ignored it all.
You don't even spoon feed Weeden the offense. No, he gets the whole playbook from day one! You don't change anything.
Blockhead: Ditto Chris Palmer with Tim Couch.
Oh, but here's more on Shurmer: You run a running back with broken ribs into the ground when his backup is averaging a whole yard-per-carry more than he is. Actually, that's both backups.
But I digress. Okbye.
Wednesday, March 13, 2013
Browns Might Have Best Front Three in the NFL
I might have been more thrilled with the signing of Desmond Bryant than I was with Paul Kruger.
Bryant has been playing DT in a 4-3 scheme, but has great length and speed (for that position/his size). As an inside player going against guards who are usually shorter than he is, he's mastered leverage.
On passing downs in Horton's defense, Bryant will set up somewhere inside the tackle (as he has every down with the Raiders) and penetrate. Very effectively, especially when flanked by Rueben or Taylor...who do you double-team NOW?
But on normal downs, now Bryant should be shaded to the tackle's outside shoulder, making any double-team a big problem. I believe he'll be mostly on the weak side, one-on-one with the left tackle.
Here, he has the height and reach to keep that skyscraper from getting his hands on him, and won't let the tackle push him anywhere. With his arms extended keeping that guy at bay, he'll see everything in the backfield, and react. It's a beautiful thing. He will also sometimes stunt, or cross the tackle's face and shoot inside.
Quentin Groves is a good player who can start, and is partly here to school the other guys in Horton's system. He has surprising speed.
Kruger relies more on power and technique than on speed. Assertions that he's weak against the run are rediculous. This is what you get when somebody sees that until this season he was a passrushing specialist, and leaps to conclusions.
Now, when Gocong returns, he'll most likely be the favorite at ILB as the thumper. When he was injured last season, he had emerged as a force, with tackles for losses and big hits in specialized defenses. (Oh yeah. Cocong is a Cleveland Browns linebacker. We got him from the Eagles...any of it coming back to you?)
Now Bub wants them to take Warmack at 6. I initially flinched at the notion of taking a road-grading guard that high, but he's persuading me. That would make this the best offensive line in football! Warmack would be slotted at a number six salary for four years, and if he performed at an all-pro level, that's a bargain.
I knocked Warmack before because he's not an athlete who can pull, but that might not be so bad if he's as dominating as he is against any defender.
On the other hand, Browns fans bashed Shurmer for not running more screen passes. Well, with Warmack they'll get to bash Norv and Chud for not running more screens, because Warmack doesn't run. He lumbers. The screens were blown to hell because the screen hadn't arrived yet, and that wouldn't change.
I'm wobbling on this. With TRich healthy and this guy blasting tackles on his way to linebackers ahead of him, the dude might average 5 YPC. Warmack isn't fast, but does have good feet and can't be bull-rushed. He might not pull well, but does get to linebackers at the second level.
If they drafted Warmack, they'd ideally also get a FA or drafted left guard who's more athletic and can pull, and this would also make the lead-blocking fullback mandatory...
I don't know. Certainly, Warmack would instantly start and play at a high level. Certainly, he would open holes and enhance the inside running game. Make a difference on third and shorts and the goal line. Wear defenders down by beating on them all game.
What other options are there at 6? Geno Smith is one. Even still Ansah or another one of those OLB's. Better is better right? More is better too. Could still trade Sheard, ya know (and actually get something for him too). (I like Sheard but this is business see?)
Damn...as it stands, unless they secretly want Smith and/or can trade down, Warmack looks like the default pick.
And I could be wrong about his mobility, time to do more research okbye.
UPDATE: This just in: I was wrong. Warmack can pull. SOLD!
Bryant has been playing DT in a 4-3 scheme, but has great length and speed (for that position/his size). As an inside player going against guards who are usually shorter than he is, he's mastered leverage.
On passing downs in Horton's defense, Bryant will set up somewhere inside the tackle (as he has every down with the Raiders) and penetrate. Very effectively, especially when flanked by Rueben or Taylor...who do you double-team NOW?
But on normal downs, now Bryant should be shaded to the tackle's outside shoulder, making any double-team a big problem. I believe he'll be mostly on the weak side, one-on-one with the left tackle.
Here, he has the height and reach to keep that skyscraper from getting his hands on him, and won't let the tackle push him anywhere. With his arms extended keeping that guy at bay, he'll see everything in the backfield, and react. It's a beautiful thing. He will also sometimes stunt, or cross the tackle's face and shoot inside.
Quentin Groves is a good player who can start, and is partly here to school the other guys in Horton's system. He has surprising speed.
Kruger relies more on power and technique than on speed. Assertions that he's weak against the run are rediculous. This is what you get when somebody sees that until this season he was a passrushing specialist, and leaps to conclusions.
Now, when Gocong returns, he'll most likely be the favorite at ILB as the thumper. When he was injured last season, he had emerged as a force, with tackles for losses and big hits in specialized defenses. (Oh yeah. Cocong is a Cleveland Browns linebacker. We got him from the Eagles...any of it coming back to you?)
Now Bub wants them to take Warmack at 6. I initially flinched at the notion of taking a road-grading guard that high, but he's persuading me. That would make this the best offensive line in football! Warmack would be slotted at a number six salary for four years, and if he performed at an all-pro level, that's a bargain.
I knocked Warmack before because he's not an athlete who can pull, but that might not be so bad if he's as dominating as he is against any defender.
On the other hand, Browns fans bashed Shurmer for not running more screen passes. Well, with Warmack they'll get to bash Norv and Chud for not running more screens, because Warmack doesn't run. He lumbers. The screens were blown to hell because the screen hadn't arrived yet, and that wouldn't change.
I'm wobbling on this. With TRich healthy and this guy blasting tackles on his way to linebackers ahead of him, the dude might average 5 YPC. Warmack isn't fast, but does have good feet and can't be bull-rushed. He might not pull well, but does get to linebackers at the second level.
If they drafted Warmack, they'd ideally also get a FA or drafted left guard who's more athletic and can pull, and this would also make the lead-blocking fullback mandatory...
I don't know. Certainly, Warmack would instantly start and play at a high level. Certainly, he would open holes and enhance the inside running game. Make a difference on third and shorts and the goal line. Wear defenders down by beating on them all game.
What other options are there at 6? Geno Smith is one. Even still Ansah or another one of those OLB's. Better is better right? More is better too. Could still trade Sheard, ya know (and actually get something for him too). (I like Sheard but this is business see?)
Damn...as it stands, unless they secretly want Smith and/or can trade down, Warmack looks like the default pick.
And I could be wrong about his mobility, time to do more research okbye.
UPDATE: This just in: I was wrong. Warmack can pull. SOLD!
Sunday, March 10, 2013
Comments on Comments on Browns Moves and Stuff.
1: Ryann Mallett slid into the third round of his draft mostly because he's fairly immobile, and NFL trainers and coaches can only do so much about that. Great arm, accuracy etc.
Belichick saw him as a value in the third round. He and his staff would work with him and see if they could turn him into something behind Tom Brady, and if they couldn't, they could always trade him.
If they couldn't, they could always trade him. If they couldn't, they could always trade him DO YOU UNDERSTAND?
This is what smart football people do. They sometimes take chances on big arms with big names, and they think about a couple years down the road; about worst-case scenarios. If this guy doesn't look like the man, we can get something back for him.
Most of what you read about this Mallett thing is supposition and guesswork. Writers think of what they would do, and then use the word "source" to put it forward. Then other people repeat it and comment on the guess as if it were etched in stone. Before you know it, the amateur's guess is accepted as fact.
By the way, you know who doesn't do this? Adam Schefter. If he says something will happen, it usually does. The dude's amazing.
Anyway, the supposition that the price would be a second-rounder is probably correct. Bill turns another third round pick into another second round pick. Par for his course.
It also might be correct that Mallett has made progress and looks like Brady's heir apparant, in which case he won't trade him, period. Either way, the Browns probably shouldn't even think about it.
2: I like the writers who list all the links between free agent players and Browns coaches and staff members. This is valid, because the players know who they're dealing with, how they operate, and no doubt exactly where they fit in the schemes.
This extra insight helps them think beyond the 5-11 season and changes here, and see the potential for improvements and playoffs. These players should consider the Browns as among their possibilities, whereas others will rule them out based on cursory impressions.
Paul Kruger and Keenan Lewis have no such connections here, but they know that this 5-11 team beat the Steelers and almost beat the Ravens last season. They've also had a thorough look at Brandon Weeden, as they've studied him a lot on film along with playing against him.
They'll already have formed their own opinions about how he'll do in this more Weeden-freindly offense, and will or won't come here based on that as much as on money.
Both will negotiate for leverage, if for no other reason, but if either actually sign in the first wave, I'll take this as an inside source expressing confidence in Weeden. (I just won't invent any quotes.)
2: If by "fair market value", Joe Banner means simply that, the Browns will lose the bidding wars. They're 5-11 with a questionable young old quarterback and no Turner-centric depth. They play in one of the toughest divisions in football, with the young Bengals one step ahead of them, and the reigning Superbowl champs. And it's COLD up here!
If Banner understands that for this team and at this time, fair market value is market value plus ten percent, they'll compete.
I hope for the latter, but suspect that Banner might let the top tier guys get away, and wait for the "second round". This is where the FA's get less picky and accept less money, because now it's a race between them and other players at their positions to fill the needs of teams for the most money. The longer it takes, the less leverage they have.
If Banner has kept his powder dry and still has most of his cap-space, he can clean up here, but he's not going to get any really elite players.
3: The more I think about it, the less I like Mike Wallace. I hate the Stoolers, but they really know what they're doing, and they're fed up with the greedy selfish mercenary less-than-reliable egomaniac.
3a: I believe the front office and coaches really like Josh Gordon and project him as their number one reciever.
Joe Banner once again spoke english about Gordon, which is of course why he was widely misunderstood. So, he needs to keep making progress and improving. This is obvious. He was a raw rookie last season. A guy as big an tall as he is always has room to make crisper breaks, run more precise routes, etc. A rookie is never as good as he'll become.
Banner never expressed any doubts about this. He was merely telling Gordon through the media that he needs to keep working hard to improve himself.
So the Browns don't "need" a number one reciever. They just need Gordon to be better in his second season as number one than he was as a rookie.
4: The Browns do have a lot of salary tied up in their offensive line as it is. But this doesn't prevent them from spending even more on this position group. Nor is a new more athletic young guard all addition. The team will only keep so many offensive linemen, and one or more of the current group will be released or concievably traded.
This is why accountants are kept away from making personnel decisions.
Also, if you want more push, Miller has now had a season to learn the pro game, and with the new regime will be given a fair chance to play right guard.
5: James Harrison is old and washed up. Don't even think about it.
6: Jared Cook should be near the top of the Browns list! Cameron is big and strong and can block in-line, in addition to running routes from the slot or doing H-Back stuff, but you need more than him. Jared Cook is another coverted wide reciever who was a basketball player.
This guy is like Kellen Winslow. He's not a good in-line blocker but can run every route and makes big plays. He is a fit for Turner's offense.
Understand this: Delete the labels tight end and wide reciever. Substitute "reciever". Cook is a reciever, okay? Tony Grossi likes Little in the slot and so do I, but he's big and pretty fast and can beat presses, so he's fully capable of playing outside. Cook would be better in the slot than Little is.
They might still need more there. Smelley is a good, versatile player who should get a fair shot at fullback in his second season, and has shown that he can be a reciever, but if you field two tight ends more than occasionally, you really need three true tight ends for depth.
7: James Micheal Johnson might well be a damn good inside linebacker in his second season. I'd love to nab Ellerbe, but Banner won't break the bank for him.
8: I love D'Qwell Jackson but would have him on the auction block this offseason, and I'd want a second-rounder for him.
This is despite the fact that, for those who understand the 3-4, Jackson is a classic run-and-hit 3-4 ILB. One of the ILB's is protected from offensive linemen by alignment and by the bigger ILB next to him. One is a thumper (Gocong, maybe JMJ, possibly one of two other ex-defensive ends on the current roster), and the other is the run-and-hit guy.
But this draft is deep, and Jackson is more valuable to a 4-3 team. I'd take a second rounder (or a 3rd and 4th) or else keep him.
9: http://secondroundstats.com/ is an awesome site which breaks down players' statistics in greater detail. For a quarterback, it separates completions at different ranges and places, coming from behind, down, distance, etc. and factors in recievers. For example, EJ Manuel and Geno Smith had exceptional recievers who only dropped the ball like one out of twenty times, whereas another guy might have a Braylon Edwards or Mike Wallace.
Anyway, I like EJ Manuel MORE THAN Geno Smith, and think he's got greatness written all over him.
His one issue is inaccuracy deep. He's exceptional up to twenty yards, but ranks low at over twenty. He's in the middle of the pack everywhere else. Geno Smith ranks higher overall, but he threw the majority of his passes under five yards.
Why do I think Manuel is better than Smith? Because he won every Bowl game, came through at the Senior Bowl and then at the combine. Because he is fueled by pressure. The tougher it gets, the better he gets. Man, you can't teach that!
Further, Manuel is very, very intelligent. It shows up in the interviews.
The inaccuracy deep is troubling, but has nothing to do with arm strength. He has all the arm he needs. Scouts (and Jim Miller) have said that he'll need to work on his feet, and he throws too often without being planted. He completed over 73% of his passes between 11-20 yards, which is ideal for the NFL.
He was the same from under center as he was from the shotgun (whereas Smith's numbers fell off from under center).
Manuel towers over the rest of them and is also faster. Geno Smith is much more NFL-ready, and I'm no scout and could definitely be wrong, but right now think that Manuel has more upside.
According to Miller, just between his last college game and the Senior Bowl, he looked much more polished after having trained with some NFL people. Between EJ and Geno I have a hard time picking, but that pressure response thing (and fast learning curve) is just huge for me, and transcends all the nuts and bolts.
With a second round pick, they'd have a shot at him, though I'm not alone on this, and he might well be gone in the first.
Belichick saw him as a value in the third round. He and his staff would work with him and see if they could turn him into something behind Tom Brady, and if they couldn't, they could always trade him.
If they couldn't, they could always trade him. If they couldn't, they could always trade him DO YOU UNDERSTAND?
This is what smart football people do. They sometimes take chances on big arms with big names, and they think about a couple years down the road; about worst-case scenarios. If this guy doesn't look like the man, we can get something back for him.
Most of what you read about this Mallett thing is supposition and guesswork. Writers think of what they would do, and then use the word "source" to put it forward. Then other people repeat it and comment on the guess as if it were etched in stone. Before you know it, the amateur's guess is accepted as fact.
By the way, you know who doesn't do this? Adam Schefter. If he says something will happen, it usually does. The dude's amazing.
Anyway, the supposition that the price would be a second-rounder is probably correct. Bill turns another third round pick into another second round pick. Par for his course.
It also might be correct that Mallett has made progress and looks like Brady's heir apparant, in which case he won't trade him, period. Either way, the Browns probably shouldn't even think about it.
2: I like the writers who list all the links between free agent players and Browns coaches and staff members. This is valid, because the players know who they're dealing with, how they operate, and no doubt exactly where they fit in the schemes.
This extra insight helps them think beyond the 5-11 season and changes here, and see the potential for improvements and playoffs. These players should consider the Browns as among their possibilities, whereas others will rule them out based on cursory impressions.
Paul Kruger and Keenan Lewis have no such connections here, but they know that this 5-11 team beat the Steelers and almost beat the Ravens last season. They've also had a thorough look at Brandon Weeden, as they've studied him a lot on film along with playing against him.
They'll already have formed their own opinions about how he'll do in this more Weeden-freindly offense, and will or won't come here based on that as much as on money.
Both will negotiate for leverage, if for no other reason, but if either actually sign in the first wave, I'll take this as an inside source expressing confidence in Weeden. (I just won't invent any quotes.)
2: If by "fair market value", Joe Banner means simply that, the Browns will lose the bidding wars. They're 5-11 with a questionable young old quarterback and no Turner-centric depth. They play in one of the toughest divisions in football, with the young Bengals one step ahead of them, and the reigning Superbowl champs. And it's COLD up here!
If Banner understands that for this team and at this time, fair market value is market value plus ten percent, they'll compete.
I hope for the latter, but suspect that Banner might let the top tier guys get away, and wait for the "second round". This is where the FA's get less picky and accept less money, because now it's a race between them and other players at their positions to fill the needs of teams for the most money. The longer it takes, the less leverage they have.
If Banner has kept his powder dry and still has most of his cap-space, he can clean up here, but he's not going to get any really elite players.
3: The more I think about it, the less I like Mike Wallace. I hate the Stoolers, but they really know what they're doing, and they're fed up with the greedy selfish mercenary less-than-reliable egomaniac.
3a: I believe the front office and coaches really like Josh Gordon and project him as their number one reciever.
Joe Banner once again spoke english about Gordon, which is of course why he was widely misunderstood. So, he needs to keep making progress and improving. This is obvious. He was a raw rookie last season. A guy as big an tall as he is always has room to make crisper breaks, run more precise routes, etc. A rookie is never as good as he'll become.
Banner never expressed any doubts about this. He was merely telling Gordon through the media that he needs to keep working hard to improve himself.
So the Browns don't "need" a number one reciever. They just need Gordon to be better in his second season as number one than he was as a rookie.
4: The Browns do have a lot of salary tied up in their offensive line as it is. But this doesn't prevent them from spending even more on this position group. Nor is a new more athletic young guard all addition. The team will only keep so many offensive linemen, and one or more of the current group will be released or concievably traded.
This is why accountants are kept away from making personnel decisions.
Also, if you want more push, Miller has now had a season to learn the pro game, and with the new regime will be given a fair chance to play right guard.
5: James Harrison is old and washed up. Don't even think about it.
6: Jared Cook should be near the top of the Browns list! Cameron is big and strong and can block in-line, in addition to running routes from the slot or doing H-Back stuff, but you need more than him. Jared Cook is another coverted wide reciever who was a basketball player.
This guy is like Kellen Winslow. He's not a good in-line blocker but can run every route and makes big plays. He is a fit for Turner's offense.
Understand this: Delete the labels tight end and wide reciever. Substitute "reciever". Cook is a reciever, okay? Tony Grossi likes Little in the slot and so do I, but he's big and pretty fast and can beat presses, so he's fully capable of playing outside. Cook would be better in the slot than Little is.
They might still need more there. Smelley is a good, versatile player who should get a fair shot at fullback in his second season, and has shown that he can be a reciever, but if you field two tight ends more than occasionally, you really need three true tight ends for depth.
7: James Micheal Johnson might well be a damn good inside linebacker in his second season. I'd love to nab Ellerbe, but Banner won't break the bank for him.
8: I love D'Qwell Jackson but would have him on the auction block this offseason, and I'd want a second-rounder for him.
This is despite the fact that, for those who understand the 3-4, Jackson is a classic run-and-hit 3-4 ILB. One of the ILB's is protected from offensive linemen by alignment and by the bigger ILB next to him. One is a thumper (Gocong, maybe JMJ, possibly one of two other ex-defensive ends on the current roster), and the other is the run-and-hit guy.
But this draft is deep, and Jackson is more valuable to a 4-3 team. I'd take a second rounder (or a 3rd and 4th) or else keep him.
9: http://secondroundstats.com/ is an awesome site which breaks down players' statistics in greater detail. For a quarterback, it separates completions at different ranges and places, coming from behind, down, distance, etc. and factors in recievers. For example, EJ Manuel and Geno Smith had exceptional recievers who only dropped the ball like one out of twenty times, whereas another guy might have a Braylon Edwards or Mike Wallace.
Anyway, I like EJ Manuel MORE THAN Geno Smith, and think he's got greatness written all over him.
His one issue is inaccuracy deep. He's exceptional up to twenty yards, but ranks low at over twenty. He's in the middle of the pack everywhere else. Geno Smith ranks higher overall, but he threw the majority of his passes under five yards.
Why do I think Manuel is better than Smith? Because he won every Bowl game, came through at the Senior Bowl and then at the combine. Because he is fueled by pressure. The tougher it gets, the better he gets. Man, you can't teach that!
Further, Manuel is very, very intelligent. It shows up in the interviews.
The inaccuracy deep is troubling, but has nothing to do with arm strength. He has all the arm he needs. Scouts (and Jim Miller) have said that he'll need to work on his feet, and he throws too often without being planted. He completed over 73% of his passes between 11-20 yards, which is ideal for the NFL.
He was the same from under center as he was from the shotgun (whereas Smith's numbers fell off from under center).
Manuel towers over the rest of them and is also faster. Geno Smith is much more NFL-ready, and I'm no scout and could definitely be wrong, but right now think that Manuel has more upside.
According to Miller, just between his last college game and the Senior Bowl, he looked much more polished after having trained with some NFL people. Between EJ and Geno I have a hard time picking, but that pressure response thing (and fast learning curve) is just huge for me, and transcends all the nuts and bolts.
With a second round pick, they'd have a shot at him, though I'm not alone on this, and he might well be gone in the first.
Friday, March 8, 2013
Desmond Bryant and Tashaun Gipson Corrections
While I would like to get a proven stud free safety, I need to remind everybody else that Tashaun Gipson, who in brief action last season looked awesome, has not ceased to exist. I haven't seen him personally, but have looked around and seen enough evidence that he is still here, now with some experience under his belt.
I can safely speak for him. He wants you to know that he thinks the Browns already have a free safety. And I wouldn't need a medium to contact him. And fortunately for him, guess what position Ray Horton played.
Now the Browns are said to be pursung Raiders' DT Desmond Bryant in free agency. Bryant is 6'6", around 310, and he's clocked under 5 flat.
Listen carefully: He would be a defensive END here. Because he was a "tackle" in the 4-3 doesn't mean he has to be a "tackle" here. 3-4 defensive ends are bigger and stronger than 4-3 types, and nose tackles are monsters--to whom height is a disadvantage, by the way.
Keep listening: Many 3-4 defensive ends are former tackles, just as many 3-4 outside linebackers are former defensive ends. Nose tackles aren't former anythings. They are monsters. Bryant is not a monster. He is a big tall athlete, which is a defensive end here DO YOU UNDERSTAND?
YOU STAND CORRECTED
I can safely speak for him. He wants you to know that he thinks the Browns already have a free safety. And I wouldn't need a medium to contact him. And fortunately for him, guess what position Ray Horton played.
Now the Browns are said to be pursung Raiders' DT Desmond Bryant in free agency. Bryant is 6'6", around 310, and he's clocked under 5 flat.
Listen carefully: He would be a defensive END here. Because he was a "tackle" in the 4-3 doesn't mean he has to be a "tackle" here. 3-4 defensive ends are bigger and stronger than 4-3 types, and nose tackles are monsters--to whom height is a disadvantage, by the way.
Keep listening: Many 3-4 defensive ends are former tackles, just as many 3-4 outside linebackers are former defensive ends. Nose tackles aren't former anythings. They are monsters. Bryant is not a monster. He is a big tall athlete, which is a defensive end here DO YOU UNDERSTAND?
YOU STAND CORRECTED
Wednesday, March 6, 2013
Analyzing Brandon Weeden's Analyses
Chud's first experience as an offensive coordinator involved Derrick Anderson, Brady Quinn, and a 10-6 season. The next season, Anderson fell on his face, then Quinn joined him.
Most would agree, Cam Newton did better. Chud has no doubt learned from all those experiences. We don't need to talk about Norv Turner. These guys know quarterbacks.
In his rookie season, Brandon Weeden was up-and-down. Per the new collective bargaining agreement, they're not allowed to work with him, and all they can do is re-run his tapes and guesstimate what he was thinking.
When they do get to interrogate him, they'll show him their tapes, and ask him what he saw pre-snap, if he saw this guy, or this guy, or that guy wide open, and if so, why he didn't throw the damn ball.
Jim Miller and Rich Gannon have both guessed that he saw the recievers, but didn't trust his read, and hesitated. This is a kind of paranoia. "This is too easy-oh God it must be a trap!"
If that's the case, it might be fixable, especially after they show him the tapes and he sees that his read was right, it was safe, and he left one big play after another on the field due to timidity. Let's hope so. In college, he slung it anywhere he felt like.
Turner's offense will certainly help, with more shotgun snaps and deep throws. It's much simpler than the West Coast, and the vertical routes are more clear-cut; no sneaky safeties hiding around corners.
His other issue was footwork. He's a pocket passer who must have his feet set when he throws. Jim Miller said he had similar issues, and had to learn to take shorter steps, and re-plant. Watch Tom Brady. He's great at it.
Weeden would "drift" out of the pocket, keeping his eyes down the field, but taking long, lazy strides. If you watch Brady, you'll see him sprint a couple yards, then stand still again. Weeden would throw while running, with bad accuracy. Brady throws the same as he would in the pocket, because he has re-planted his feet, ready to throw.
A side-note on this: The dart-then re-plant thing helps the offensive lineman, who is often turning with the passrusher and sees it. He can shove the passrusher off-line. If the quarterback has re-planted and is stationary, the defender can't turn into him before he overshoots. If the quarterback is still drifting along, he will overtake and sack him.
While these two flaws seem to be fixable, that's not certain. Then there's the disturbing fact that Brandon seemed to get worse as the season progressed. Even as Gordon blossomed into a really scary reciever, and Little dropped three out of 42 or so passes.
Why didn't you throw it? Why did you eat it? DID you see them? Did you study this defense on film enough? WILL you? I personally think Weeden will probably be much better/more consistant in the Turner offense, but I'm not sure. I mean, I couldn't wait for Derrick Anderson to tear up the NFL after going 10-6, and...well.
Yeah, he's working with Chris Weinke...
By the way, it's profoundly ignorant and stupid to bash Weinke. He has a great track record working with quarterbacks and is recommended by many agents and coaches. Most of the best boxing managers were bad boxers. They had the brains, but not the reflexes, hand-speed, balance, power, whatever. But they took guys with more talent and made them champions.
Weinke is excellent, so shut up.
Anyway, Weeden was in Florida to attend Seneca Wallace's wedding, and contacted Weinke "while he was down there". Weinke worked with him for three days.
So no, this doesn't mean that Brandon Weeden is dedicated and has a great work ethic.
I was troubled by his former coach's comments (and non-comments) as the guy gushed about his new guy, Geno Smith. He's got game-tapes on his I-pod. He watches his own games all the time to see what he did wrong. He studies the best NFL quarterbacks intensely. He's obsessed with football and self-improvement. Called a lot of his own plays (because he reads defenses exceptionally well/quickly) (This for me is huge).
Then, coach answers a Weeden question: He's got a great arm. Natural spiral. Can throw it anywhere, and, uhhh...
The Brass not talking Weeden up when they came here wasn't damning him with faint praise. THIS was.
Yeah yeah I know, Weeden is already in the NFL and this coach wants his new guy to get drafted as high as possible to make himself look good. Everybody will forget everything he said when Smith falls on his face, right?
Now, there was an article asserting that the Browns would draft Smith, according to a source. Well, you don't seem to know how this works, so according to a source, you are gay. Sources say that Joe Banner works for the CIA. See? I made it up, and if you ever wanted me to name my source, I would refuse in order to protect my privacy.
Nobody believed it, since that would be utterly insane. I mean, Kiper allegedly said that Weeden would have been the first one off the board this year, did he? No, I mean, DID he? Because I doubt it. But the consensus is that this crop is inferior to last year's, and that none of them belong in the top ten on the board.
So instead of some guy like me just making it up, it just had to be an intentional leak intended to stir up trade interest. Someone on the cleaning staff, maybe? (Actually that's quite believable. I would to that myself.)
Another guy says that since Banner's statements about telling the truth etc. earned him such credibility and good will, if he drafted Smith, it would shoot that all to hell.
How dumb. He said "We don't plan to use a high draft pick on a quarterback", right? He might have said "at this time" or not, but he shouldn't have needed to, if he's talking to an english-speaking public.
I guess for this guy, he needed to say "But we haven't been allowed to get with Brandon yet, we haven't finished evaluating the prospects yet, and this could change, so we might change our minds and do something different. I'm just saying that right NOW we don't plan to use a high draft choice on a quarterback DO YOU UNDERSTAND? Okay what was the sixth word in my last sentence? It starts with an 'n'."
And how can you expect a football front office guy to tell the truth all the time anyway? Never played poker, did you? "I'm going to draft THIS guy". The other GM's know he really means it, so they jump ahead of him and take his player every single time. "I've got three aces, so please don't fold."
Grow up. Banner can't be totally honest. But he's smart. He knows that most people don't understand english, so he's safe telling the truth. Sort of.
This brings me back to Smith and Weeden.
If they believe that Weeden will be much better in his second season and in this Brandon-friendly offense, Smith is off the table. If they aren't pretty damn sure about that, Smith is a candidate.
Then they have to decide if Smith does look like a franchise guy, and if they disagree with his college coach and a few others about that, then they won't take him.
But if they doubt Weeden and think Geno Smith will compulsively make himself great in the NFL as he did in college, they HAVE TO DRAFT HIM. Because he's a quarterback!
Why will a lot of free agents NOT come to Cleveland for any amount of money?
Not because the team lacks talent. All the players in the NFL know that this is a talented team with excellent coaches, even if you don't. They won't come here because of the quarterback. The most talented team, if it does manage to reach the playoffs, won't get anywhere without a real good quarterback.
They're not saying Weeden sucks, either. They just don't know. Most of them want to win a Superbowl, and the first place they look on every team is the quarterback. Weeden has done nothing yet, and so far looks mediocre. And hesitant. And timid. And wild when he has to move. Even if they think he might be great, they want the sure thing first.
If Joe could safely tell these guys "We're going to draft Geno Smith", Trust me, half of them would reconsider! Yes, they would, do you get that?
Finally, part of this whole "doesn't belong in the top ten" stuff is obsolete thinking. Since the new Collective Bargaining Agreement, quarterbacks get paid the same as any other player drafted in a given slot. But quarterback remains THE MOST important position on the field.
So even if you think he's a middle first rounder, you draft him anyway (I mean, unless you have a lot of confidence in Weeden, which they might--I don't know).
They WILL sign free agent secondary guys and OLB's, by the way, so don't worry so much about the few real (and many imaginary) needs.
Oh yeah, and Greg Little is great for the slot but CAN start outside opposite Gordon, so a free agent reciever can be a slot guy or an outside guy. For that matter, I'm not ready to give up on Benji or Norwood (who I hope they re-sign) in the slot either.
Finally, Richardson had broken ribs and Shurmer let him play anyway. Throw out that whole season. Those of us who have had broken ribs get this, so maybe you should just crack one...a little...and see if you can even move.
Trent will be fine.
Most would agree, Cam Newton did better. Chud has no doubt learned from all those experiences. We don't need to talk about Norv Turner. These guys know quarterbacks.
In his rookie season, Brandon Weeden was up-and-down. Per the new collective bargaining agreement, they're not allowed to work with him, and all they can do is re-run his tapes and guesstimate what he was thinking.
When they do get to interrogate him, they'll show him their tapes, and ask him what he saw pre-snap, if he saw this guy, or this guy, or that guy wide open, and if so, why he didn't throw the damn ball.
Jim Miller and Rich Gannon have both guessed that he saw the recievers, but didn't trust his read, and hesitated. This is a kind of paranoia. "This is too easy-oh God it must be a trap!"
If that's the case, it might be fixable, especially after they show him the tapes and he sees that his read was right, it was safe, and he left one big play after another on the field due to timidity. Let's hope so. In college, he slung it anywhere he felt like.
Turner's offense will certainly help, with more shotgun snaps and deep throws. It's much simpler than the West Coast, and the vertical routes are more clear-cut; no sneaky safeties hiding around corners.
His other issue was footwork. He's a pocket passer who must have his feet set when he throws. Jim Miller said he had similar issues, and had to learn to take shorter steps, and re-plant. Watch Tom Brady. He's great at it.
Weeden would "drift" out of the pocket, keeping his eyes down the field, but taking long, lazy strides. If you watch Brady, you'll see him sprint a couple yards, then stand still again. Weeden would throw while running, with bad accuracy. Brady throws the same as he would in the pocket, because he has re-planted his feet, ready to throw.
A side-note on this: The dart-then re-plant thing helps the offensive lineman, who is often turning with the passrusher and sees it. He can shove the passrusher off-line. If the quarterback has re-planted and is stationary, the defender can't turn into him before he overshoots. If the quarterback is still drifting along, he will overtake and sack him.
While these two flaws seem to be fixable, that's not certain. Then there's the disturbing fact that Brandon seemed to get worse as the season progressed. Even as Gordon blossomed into a really scary reciever, and Little dropped three out of 42 or so passes.
Why didn't you throw it? Why did you eat it? DID you see them? Did you study this defense on film enough? WILL you? I personally think Weeden will probably be much better/more consistant in the Turner offense, but I'm not sure. I mean, I couldn't wait for Derrick Anderson to tear up the NFL after going 10-6, and...well.
Yeah, he's working with Chris Weinke...
By the way, it's profoundly ignorant and stupid to bash Weinke. He has a great track record working with quarterbacks and is recommended by many agents and coaches. Most of the best boxing managers were bad boxers. They had the brains, but not the reflexes, hand-speed, balance, power, whatever. But they took guys with more talent and made them champions.
Weinke is excellent, so shut up.
Anyway, Weeden was in Florida to attend Seneca Wallace's wedding, and contacted Weinke "while he was down there". Weinke worked with him for three days.
So no, this doesn't mean that Brandon Weeden is dedicated and has a great work ethic.
I was troubled by his former coach's comments (and non-comments) as the guy gushed about his new guy, Geno Smith. He's got game-tapes on his I-pod. He watches his own games all the time to see what he did wrong. He studies the best NFL quarterbacks intensely. He's obsessed with football and self-improvement. Called a lot of his own plays (because he reads defenses exceptionally well/quickly) (This for me is huge).
Then, coach answers a Weeden question: He's got a great arm. Natural spiral. Can throw it anywhere, and, uhhh...
The Brass not talking Weeden up when they came here wasn't damning him with faint praise. THIS was.
Yeah yeah I know, Weeden is already in the NFL and this coach wants his new guy to get drafted as high as possible to make himself look good. Everybody will forget everything he said when Smith falls on his face, right?
Now, there was an article asserting that the Browns would draft Smith, according to a source. Well, you don't seem to know how this works, so according to a source, you are gay. Sources say that Joe Banner works for the CIA. See? I made it up, and if you ever wanted me to name my source, I would refuse in order to protect my privacy.
Nobody believed it, since that would be utterly insane. I mean, Kiper allegedly said that Weeden would have been the first one off the board this year, did he? No, I mean, DID he? Because I doubt it. But the consensus is that this crop is inferior to last year's, and that none of them belong in the top ten on the board.
So instead of some guy like me just making it up, it just had to be an intentional leak intended to stir up trade interest. Someone on the cleaning staff, maybe? (Actually that's quite believable. I would to that myself.)
Another guy says that since Banner's statements about telling the truth etc. earned him such credibility and good will, if he drafted Smith, it would shoot that all to hell.
How dumb. He said "We don't plan to use a high draft pick on a quarterback", right? He might have said "at this time" or not, but he shouldn't have needed to, if he's talking to an english-speaking public.
I guess for this guy, he needed to say "But we haven't been allowed to get with Brandon yet, we haven't finished evaluating the prospects yet, and this could change, so we might change our minds and do something different. I'm just saying that right NOW we don't plan to use a high draft choice on a quarterback DO YOU UNDERSTAND? Okay what was the sixth word in my last sentence? It starts with an 'n'."
And how can you expect a football front office guy to tell the truth all the time anyway? Never played poker, did you? "I'm going to draft THIS guy". The other GM's know he really means it, so they jump ahead of him and take his player every single time. "I've got three aces, so please don't fold."
Grow up. Banner can't be totally honest. But he's smart. He knows that most people don't understand english, so he's safe telling the truth. Sort of.
This brings me back to Smith and Weeden.
If they believe that Weeden will be much better in his second season and in this Brandon-friendly offense, Smith is off the table. If they aren't pretty damn sure about that, Smith is a candidate.
Then they have to decide if Smith does look like a franchise guy, and if they disagree with his college coach and a few others about that, then they won't take him.
But if they doubt Weeden and think Geno Smith will compulsively make himself great in the NFL as he did in college, they HAVE TO DRAFT HIM. Because he's a quarterback!
Why will a lot of free agents NOT come to Cleveland for any amount of money?
Not because the team lacks talent. All the players in the NFL know that this is a talented team with excellent coaches, even if you don't. They won't come here because of the quarterback. The most talented team, if it does manage to reach the playoffs, won't get anywhere without a real good quarterback.
They're not saying Weeden sucks, either. They just don't know. Most of them want to win a Superbowl, and the first place they look on every team is the quarterback. Weeden has done nothing yet, and so far looks mediocre. And hesitant. And timid. And wild when he has to move. Even if they think he might be great, they want the sure thing first.
If Joe could safely tell these guys "We're going to draft Geno Smith", Trust me, half of them would reconsider! Yes, they would, do you get that?
Finally, part of this whole "doesn't belong in the top ten" stuff is obsolete thinking. Since the new Collective Bargaining Agreement, quarterbacks get paid the same as any other player drafted in a given slot. But quarterback remains THE MOST important position on the field.
So even if you think he's a middle first rounder, you draft him anyway (I mean, unless you have a lot of confidence in Weeden, which they might--I don't know).
They WILL sign free agent secondary guys and OLB's, by the way, so don't worry so much about the few real (and many imaginary) needs.
Oh yeah, and Greg Little is great for the slot but CAN start outside opposite Gordon, so a free agent reciever can be a slot guy or an outside guy. For that matter, I'm not ready to give up on Benji or Norwood (who I hope they re-sign) in the slot either.
Finally, Richardson had broken ribs and Shurmer let him play anyway. Throw out that whole season. Those of us who have had broken ribs get this, so maybe you should just crack one...a little...and see if you can even move.
Trent will be fine.
Monday, March 4, 2013
Browns Draft Options After Day One
TE Nick Kasa (Colorado), first brought to my attention by Gil Brandt.
He won't go high for several reasons: A knee injury which cost him a year-plus, a conversion from DE to TE in the middle of his junior season, and then only 25 catches as a senior. He's labelled injury prone with "multiple" injuries because his one injury required two surgeries. Incorrect.
Kasa is 6'6", 269. He ran a 4.71 40, jumped 31.5 inches, and benched 22 times (I mentioned he was 6'6" with 32 7/8" long arms right?)
This guy quickly became a good in-line blocker, but what's lost in the shuffle is his surprising vertical speed, as his 25 catches went for 391 yards (3 TDs). Most wide receivers can't match these YPC stats. This is one of Gil Brandt's sleepers.
OLB/LB/DE Cornelius Washington (Georgia). I first heard of him at the Senior Bowl, where he tore everybody up.
He could go late because of a failed drug test, DUI arrest, and so-so production.
Shortened seasons and reduced playing time due to "scheme and depth" on the Georgia roster contributed to the mediocre statistics, and those stats upon real analysis aren't that pedestrian after all. Per-snap, he got a lot of tackles-for-losses and sacks.
At 6'4", 265, get this: 4.55 40, 36 bench reps, and a 39" vertical leap!!! He doesn't change directions as well as some of the other guys, and wasn't required to cover recievers in his scheme, so that's a question mark, too.
I never cared much about DUI's, or even failed drug tests on 19-21 year olds. MOST normal guys fool around when theyre kids, including me and (admit it) probably you. HE just got CAUGHT. I mean, I have to fight a tendancy in myself to be judgemental, but there for the grace of God went I.
And what if, as a senior, he'd played on more than just passing downs? What if he wasn't sharing the field with Jarvis Jones? The Senior Bowl wasn't just the Ziggy Ansah and EJ Williams show. Cornelius Washington was right there with them.
Guard Kyle Long, who I just dug up myself: He should last awhile, probably not for his DUI, which happened in his freshman year. It's because of his lack of experience as an offensive lineman. He was drafted as a pitcher and first baseman by the White Sox, but instead took a baseball scholarship to Florida State...
Where he got bad grades and his DUI, which pretty much took care of that.
So he went to Saddleback Junior College and played defensive end. He moved to the offensive line as a sophomore there, and the next season moved up to Oregon, where he started 10 games at guard. He wasn't allowed another season, so he enters the draft with some technical flaws (lunging in space, occasionally playing too tall, not getting his hands inside enough).
And yes, he's another one of those Longs; Howie's son and Chris's brother. Both of them say that he's the best athlete in the family.
Believe it. At 6'6", 313, he ran a 4.93 40, a 7.83 3-cone drill, and a 4.63 short shuttle. In time, he can become every bit as good a left tackle as his brother Chris, let alone a superstud guard.
As a guard, he's taller than you like, but extends his hands and bends well, and it hasn't really been a problem. He explodes into blocks, can pull, and sometimes blocks guys with one hand while running; nailing multiple targets.
While probably not a starter until at least late in his rookie season, Long is close to a can't-miss. Had he been able to play one more year at Oregon like he wanted to, he's probably be a first-rounder in 2014. This is an astronomicly smarter pick than a guy with a huge butt who can't run DO YOU UNDERSTAND?
Nor is it a given that he'll take all that long to refine his techniques, as he has his Dad and bro to work with him long before the coaches can.
CB Tyrann Mathiew "the honey badger" was voted the best defender in the nation before his failed drug test. He also violated a whole bunch of team rules, meaning he was a punk. He also managed only four reps on the bench press, and he's 5'9", and his 4.5 40 was not at all impressive either.
But a bunch of the guys on NFL Radio are high on him because he forced 4 fumbles and got two picks in 2011 before his suspension.
He's also an excellent returner, and his 40 time doesn't reflect his game speed. I can't tell if he'll ever be a good starter on the outside, but he'd be great on the slot reciever.
Denard Robinson, Michigan: His probem is that he was a quarterback. He's a superior athlete who could play multiple positions, but at 5'10", 199, he's not going to be a quarterback. He worked at wide reciever as he prepared for the Senior Bowl, Combine, and Draft, but he's as raw as raw can be, and can only be considered a long-term project at any position except returner.
But as I mentioned in an earlier blog, Pat Kirwin said he could step right in as a nickel corner, if his only job was to cover the slot guy (as a cornerback) and blitze. Given some time could become a damn good starter on the outside. As a quarterback, he knows what they're up to.
He's also been looked at as a third down running back. He is smaller, but faster than Josh Cribbs, but in addition to being an ex-quarterback, he also seems to have a similar attitude and personality. He's just a good, smart kid who loves playing football and will do whatever he has to, at any position.
As a cornerback, which would probably be his position on this team, he has adequate height and good size. He killed the agility drills, demonstrating explosion out of breaks, balance, and change-of-direction, all of which are the tools to stay with a slot reciever (or blitze).
Just a couple notes: We don't need a little shrimp kick returner ok? We don't need nose tackles or defensive ends. We don't need guards who can't pull. We don't even need an inside linebacker, and might not even need a fullback...
I mean did you expect Smelley to block like Vickers as a rookie? VICKERS didn't block like Vickers as a rookie! Smelley was a tight end! Give him a freaking minute!
YOU STAND CORRECTED.
He won't go high for several reasons: A knee injury which cost him a year-plus, a conversion from DE to TE in the middle of his junior season, and then only 25 catches as a senior. He's labelled injury prone with "multiple" injuries because his one injury required two surgeries. Incorrect.
Kasa is 6'6", 269. He ran a 4.71 40, jumped 31.5 inches, and benched 22 times (I mentioned he was 6'6" with 32 7/8" long arms right?)
This guy quickly became a good in-line blocker, but what's lost in the shuffle is his surprising vertical speed, as his 25 catches went for 391 yards (3 TDs). Most wide receivers can't match these YPC stats. This is one of Gil Brandt's sleepers.
OLB/LB/DE Cornelius Washington (Georgia). I first heard of him at the Senior Bowl, where he tore everybody up.
He could go late because of a failed drug test, DUI arrest, and so-so production.
Shortened seasons and reduced playing time due to "scheme and depth" on the Georgia roster contributed to the mediocre statistics, and those stats upon real analysis aren't that pedestrian after all. Per-snap, he got a lot of tackles-for-losses and sacks.
At 6'4", 265, get this: 4.55 40, 36 bench reps, and a 39" vertical leap!!! He doesn't change directions as well as some of the other guys, and wasn't required to cover recievers in his scheme, so that's a question mark, too.
I never cared much about DUI's, or even failed drug tests on 19-21 year olds. MOST normal guys fool around when theyre kids, including me and (admit it) probably you. HE just got CAUGHT. I mean, I have to fight a tendancy in myself to be judgemental, but there for the grace of God went I.
And what if, as a senior, he'd played on more than just passing downs? What if he wasn't sharing the field with Jarvis Jones? The Senior Bowl wasn't just the Ziggy Ansah and EJ Williams show. Cornelius Washington was right there with them.
Guard Kyle Long, who I just dug up myself: He should last awhile, probably not for his DUI, which happened in his freshman year. It's because of his lack of experience as an offensive lineman. He was drafted as a pitcher and first baseman by the White Sox, but instead took a baseball scholarship to Florida State...
Where he got bad grades and his DUI, which pretty much took care of that.
So he went to Saddleback Junior College and played defensive end. He moved to the offensive line as a sophomore there, and the next season moved up to Oregon, where he started 10 games at guard. He wasn't allowed another season, so he enters the draft with some technical flaws (lunging in space, occasionally playing too tall, not getting his hands inside enough).
And yes, he's another one of those Longs; Howie's son and Chris's brother. Both of them say that he's the best athlete in the family.
Believe it. At 6'6", 313, he ran a 4.93 40, a 7.83 3-cone drill, and a 4.63 short shuttle. In time, he can become every bit as good a left tackle as his brother Chris, let alone a superstud guard.
As a guard, he's taller than you like, but extends his hands and bends well, and it hasn't really been a problem. He explodes into blocks, can pull, and sometimes blocks guys with one hand while running; nailing multiple targets.
While probably not a starter until at least late in his rookie season, Long is close to a can't-miss. Had he been able to play one more year at Oregon like he wanted to, he's probably be a first-rounder in 2014. This is an astronomicly smarter pick than a guy with a huge butt who can't run DO YOU UNDERSTAND?
Nor is it a given that he'll take all that long to refine his techniques, as he has his Dad and bro to work with him long before the coaches can.
CB Tyrann Mathiew "the honey badger" was voted the best defender in the nation before his failed drug test. He also violated a whole bunch of team rules, meaning he was a punk. He also managed only four reps on the bench press, and he's 5'9", and his 4.5 40 was not at all impressive either.
But a bunch of the guys on NFL Radio are high on him because he forced 4 fumbles and got two picks in 2011 before his suspension.
He's also an excellent returner, and his 40 time doesn't reflect his game speed. I can't tell if he'll ever be a good starter on the outside, but he'd be great on the slot reciever.
Denard Robinson, Michigan: His probem is that he was a quarterback. He's a superior athlete who could play multiple positions, but at 5'10", 199, he's not going to be a quarterback. He worked at wide reciever as he prepared for the Senior Bowl, Combine, and Draft, but he's as raw as raw can be, and can only be considered a long-term project at any position except returner.
But as I mentioned in an earlier blog, Pat Kirwin said he could step right in as a nickel corner, if his only job was to cover the slot guy (as a cornerback) and blitze. Given some time could become a damn good starter on the outside. As a quarterback, he knows what they're up to.
He's also been looked at as a third down running back. He is smaller, but faster than Josh Cribbs, but in addition to being an ex-quarterback, he also seems to have a similar attitude and personality. He's just a good, smart kid who loves playing football and will do whatever he has to, at any position.
As a cornerback, which would probably be his position on this team, he has adequate height and good size. He killed the agility drills, demonstrating explosion out of breaks, balance, and change-of-direction, all of which are the tools to stay with a slot reciever (or blitze).
Just a couple notes: We don't need a little shrimp kick returner ok? We don't need nose tackles or defensive ends. We don't need guards who can't pull. We don't even need an inside linebacker, and might not even need a fullback...
I mean did you expect Smelley to block like Vickers as a rookie? VICKERS didn't block like Vickers as a rookie! Smelley was a tight end! Give him a freaking minute!
YOU STAND CORRECTED.
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