Warren Sapp is not impressed by Myles Garrett, and I, for one, am listening. You guys know, I drank the Garrett Koolaid awhile ago, and have been calling him a generational talent.
And he does, irrefutably, have that kind of talent. Sapp doesn't deny that.
This reminds me of Warren Sapp shoving Courtney Brown, and shouting "You SOFT!". I think he was actually trying to do the kid a favor; administering tough love.
Remember Courtney Brown? He was almost as talented as Myles Garrett. In fairness, injuries might have robbed him of some of his explosive speed, but the incident with Sapp also sticks in my head.
Warren Sapp knows a thing or two about defensive linemen, and can't stand players who don't love the game, and play as hard as he did, on every single down.
If you're not listening to Warren Sapp's opinion of Myles Garrett, you're making a mistake. Sapp implies that Garrett "takes plays off".
When a scout says that, I take it with a grain of salt, because the less competent ones have a maddening tendancy to ignore the player's assignment (ie "stay at home", "contain", etc.)
But when Warren Sapp says it, he knows what he's looking at, and I now hope more than ever that Sashi Brown trades down. I am now officially nervous about Myles Garrett.
Jimmy Garopollo is "reportedly" becoming more affordable now. I won't say "I told you so", even though I could. You know, say I told you so.
It's not rocket science. Even if it's just more speculation masked by "sources", it's educated, considered speculation.
#12 and a 2018 second round pick? Where do I sign? The linked article says the deal isn't done yet because the two sides are "playing poker".
IF this is true, good for Sashi Brown for terminating negotiations when the Sith Lord allegedly asked for first overall and another first round pick and Fort Knox. Good for Bill for asking for all that too.
He was hoping Sashi was more desperate or undisciplined than he is. He was fishing. Sashi didn't nibble. He waited Lord Insideous out.
This writer is pretty good. He wonders if Jimmy G really is "all that", because there's so little post-college tape on him. A fair question.
But I think asking if Bill sees flaws in practice nobody else sees is trying too hard: Jimmy G becomes a free agent after this season. He will have zero trade value shortly. Bill evidently thinks Tom Brady has a couple years left, and if he does, he almost HAS TO cash out on Jimmy now, period.
Please find me a team (besides the Browns right now) with a 16 million dollar backup. Get it?
As for being deaf, dumb and blind on Jimmy Garopollo, that's being massively overstated. In addition to a whole LOT of college tape, there is a lot of preseason Patriots tape to watch. Tom Brady hardly plays in preseason, so Jimmy is sometimes with the first team against a first team defense.
You can compare these year-by-year tapes to get a clear picture of his progress, and can make fairly reliable projections.
The Browns scouts have a LOT more info on Jimmy G than they do on any quarterback in this draft.
No, Lord Insideous isn't trying to pull a fast one, and Sashi Brown wasn't born yesterday. This isn't whatshisname, or even Matt Cassel. I've heard from too many smart guys that Jimmy G is the genuine article to worry about this trade.
I can predict the next article in this chain: "Will Jimmy G Negotiate with the Browns?"---the 1-11 team with no offensive line devoid of talent Quarterback Graveyard blahblah.
Of course he will. Kenny Britt. Crowell/Johnson (4.9 ypc). Corey Coleman. Barnidge. Collins, Haden, Hue Jackson, Hue Jackson, Shelton, Hue Jackson he wouldn't want to come here?
God, please make this be true, even if Bill won't take less! But please hurry!
This would solve a whole bunch of problems. Jimmy G would start from day one, with Kessler the top backup. The Browns could actually win some games they wouldn't have in 2017. They could STILL draft somebody like Josh Dobbs later on for insurance (or a future trade).
Garrett first overall? Well, if nobody offers enough, I guess. Stuck with first overall, Sashi has to draft Garrett, even if he agrees with Sapp; even if it's just plain stupid.
Fortunately, all the GMs and scouts think they know better than Warren Sapp.
I gotta say this here: Don't make up your mind about something, and then ignore everything that says you're wrong. This is stupid.
Don't let your ego overrule your brain.
Don't say "Myles Garrett or ah say we haing Sashi Brown" or "what does Warren Sapp know?"
Fortunately, front office people tend to have massive egos, so they're likely to bid pretty high to fleece the young, unwary Sashi Brown out of this generational edge-rusher.
"Da poor sap! He's so nuts ova draft picks he took a foist an second and a 2018 foist an some udder stuff for Myles Garrett! Like takin candy from a baby, I tell ya har har har!"
With Garopollo locked up, quarterback is removed from the equation, and it changes everything else at the top of the draft for the Browns.
My hypothetical trade-down with the Titans assumed that Mitch Trubisky was a target. I listed a bunch of stud players who could be available at five (consolation prizes if Trubisky is drafted before then).
But with QB (probably) solved, there are actually more like ELEVEN studs atop this draft, and Sashi could consider offers from every team between first overall and the 12th overall pick they just traded to the Patriots, and still get a big-time talent, probably at a real position of need...instead of edge rusher.
Just look at the guys a lot of these mock drafters have the Browns taking at 12th overall! OJ Howard is most common, but I've seen Fournette, either Ohio State cornerback, Adams the safety, etc. there.
Warren Sapp would trade down. I think Sashi heard him.
Please God let it be Jimmy! We could fix EVERYTHING right tf now if this gets done!
Sunday, April 23, 2017
Saturday, April 22, 2017
Browns Pre-Draft Dumbassitude
We really need to lobby the Olympic Committee to make the Conclusion-Leap an event. I think the U.S. could sweep the medals. I want Rhona LaCanfora and Mary Kay Cabbott on the team!
This time, it's LaCanfora repeating what Mary Kay says. Sometimes, it's the reverse. When you read "according to sources", that's often what they mean.
So, now Jimmy Haslam wants Trubisky first overall?
Based on what?
Well, I suppose that since it's MKC the beat writer, she might have caught an actual leak. But as far as I can determine, that leak said that Haslam wanted "a quarterback", period.
The janitor might have overheard Jimmy ask Sashi Brown (with a grin) "But you are going to get me a quarterback, right?" (it's pretty obvious that the Browns will draft one somewhere in this draft--hence the grin).
Trubisky is being considered at first overall? Well, the other rumor is that Trubes is their favorite one...but at first overall, instead of Myles Garrett?
There's a whole lot of assuming going on around here, and remember: When you ASSUME, you make an ass of yourself.
Two things are more likely than not to be true here:
1: Jimmy wants a quarterback, and 2: Trubisky is Hue's favorite. But that's it.
It doesn't mean that they want him first overall, that the owner is pushing for Trubisky in particular, or that Hue considers Deshaun Watson, Patrick Mahomes, or even Webb or Josh Dobbs as significantly less capable.
The rest of this is speculation, and it's not even quality speculation.
Part of this is the premise that the Browns would never dare trade down from Myles Garrett...but might draft Trubisky first overall instead?
Well, if you've read my previous posts, you know that it's better than 50/50 that if the Browns traded down (to five in my example), they could still nab Trubisky, plus two more high picks, including 18 overall.
Now, if you're a box-thinker, you think it's unthinkable not to draft a generational passrusher for any price, and that Hue Jackson can't possibly like more than one quarterback.
I address the generational passrusher vs price thing in the aforementioned posts. Good arguments can be made on both sides of that issue, except when a potential franchise quarterback is the intended alternative. The "there can be only one" quarterback thing is simply irrational.
Full circle: Let's assume Jimmy Haslam really does want a quarterback. This is news? Let's assume that Trubisky is the top contender. This makes everybody else a bunch of bumbs? This makes him a first overall draft pick? Where is this coming from? Somebody's off their meds here!
Now, I am speculating here, because the Browns may well be content to just take Garrett at first, and get their quarterback later (maybe not even at 12). Trubisky might not even be their favorite!
But at least my speculation is based on my accurate understanding of what DePodesta does for a living ("moneyball" oh shut tf up!), all credible scouting reports on all the quarterbacks, Hue Jackson's own words on franchise quarterbacks, this offensive system, and known facts.
This really smart article by a Jets writer suggests that the Browns and Jets are discussing a trade in which the Browns move from 12 to 6 (the Jets pick) in order to grab Trubisky (if he lasts that long) rings true.
Rich Cimini is the writer, and he groks all this stuff:
This is a contingency trade, and Sashi Brown is trying to pre-arrange a whole slew of them.
I know, Mike Mayock and a bunch of other smart people have said that drafting any quarterback at 6th overall in this draft would be a big reach, but all that matters is what Hue and the Browns think.
This hypothetical trade assumes Garrett is in the bank, and that the Browns indeed see Trubisky as more promising (and/or safer) than the other quarterbacks.
Cimini says the Jets would want the top second round pick at 33 for this, but #52 represents a fairer price per the value chart. Due to their leverage (it's a quarterback, after all), the Jets can demand more. The final price could be 52 and a 2018 third or fourth round pick.
More speculation for Cimini and me. But you see, it's not a blockbuster. It implies that Sashi and company are ready to let Trubisky go if the asking price is too high for him.
This is part of what's being called "analytics": There are no absolutes. We're not talking about Andrew Luck here, and even if we were, he'd have a maximum-bid limit. There are no stars in anybody's eyes. No desperation.
(Speculating here): Maybe they think Trubisky is most adaptable to the Pros in general and Jackson's Corryallian West Coast in particular, and has the highest floor (ie better than Brian Hoyer). Watson's velocity and supporting cast, and Mahomes's unpredictability make their respective floors much lower.
They're using really deep mathematical models here, but Hue Jackson and the other football people heavily influenced DePodesta when he built them DO YOU UNDERSTAND?
Anyway, Trubisky is not worth most of the 2017 and part of the 2018 drafts to move up to second overall. He is not THAT MUCH better than the other guys in his own draft class, or even neccessarily a "top twenty" starter.
But in the Browns current predicament, they think he's worth maybe 12, 52, and a 2018 third round pick (and not a penny more).
This trade would be widely panned as an overreach, and some ignoramus would call it "panic"...so they just need to be right.
If Trubisky is nabbed before the Titans pick, no trade, and the Browns will draft their quarterback later.
Pat Kirwan says "If Trubisky is your guy, then just use all that ammo and trade up to number two to get him!"
For Kirwan, like a lot of these guys, there can be only one. This is absolutism, and is irrational. In fact, while Hue Jackson is being very vague about these quarterbacks, he's been very clear on his philosophy:
A quarterback needs accuracy, arm talent, and to be able to be the "face of the franchise". The height and other stuff are secondary. He even said that a strong running game, good receivers, and good defense make a franchise quarterback.
Why am I the only one who believed him, or even remembers he said it? Perhaps because I'm the only one to whome it made sense?
But no--there can be only one! Trubisky or we're all gonna die!!! "Mahomes? Gee thanks, Sashi. Might as well hand me my pink slip now!"
See earlier posts about this.
Now, Pat Kirwan is, like Bill Polian, kind of a Martonian blockhead, but he did turn me onto "defensive end" DeMarcus Walker in this draft:
He's probably a third day pick, and is far from perfect as a defensive end. His arms are also a little short.
But he was a track star in highschool, and his events included the 100 yard dash, the high hurdles, and a relay race. I can't remember the distances or details, but Walker set a couple school records in the hurdles, and Pat pointed out that in his relay race, he was the guy who ran around the turn.
He was a big monster in highschool, too, by the way. His weight-room numbers are competitive with those of offensive linemen.
DeMarcus is currently 280 lbs., but could pump himself up bigger. Pat Kirwan immediately projected him as a 3-tech defensive tackle (a legitimate Gregg Williams need here).
Pat loves his first step, hands, strength, and long speed, and thinks he can compete for a starting role early in his career. He should be able to out-quick guards, penetrate, and pursue.
There's a sleeper alert. Last year, Tyrone Holmes was one of my sleepers.
I read Bleacher Report's draft preview. I was thrilled by the offensive side of it, as they gave Shon Coleman some props, projected DeValve as a nice future asset, colored center and running back covered, and even said Cody Kessler was more than a bumb.
I think a different writer did the defensive side, because I couldn't even force myself to read all of it. That's part of my training: Once a clear pattern of bullshit is established, stop looking at it, and try to forget what you saw to that point.
But some of it is indelibly seared into my memory:
Carl Nassib should not be used as an outside passrusher any more. Just on run downs, or inside. The Browns need outside linebackers badly. Nate Orchard and Johnson are outside linebackers---not defensive ends--in Williams' defense. Joe Haden might be washed up. Several ROOKIES got final judgements, complete with tombstones.
The offensive side was very insightful, as it went beyond analytical numbers, and allowed for first and second year players to make their predictable leaps, implicitly factored in the two backup centers, etc.
Then this massively negative steaming pile of LaCanfora on the defensive side!!!
I have to suggest to the Bleacher Report that they send the incompetent boob who did the defensive side of their predraft analysis their link to this blog that I foolishly gave them when I tried to write for them. He can join the growing crowd of assholes that raid this blog without attribution (gdammit you scumbags).
Err...sorry. Anyway Orchard, Johnson, and Holmes can all be edge-rushers at defensive end in a 4-3, as well as from 3-4 OLB. Kirksey can play ILB or on the weak side, as well as MLB. Collins can play MLB (along with every other position in any scheme).
You'll need to go back awhile in my entries to find this, but Gregg Williams is most likely to run more 4-3 with the talent he has inheritted, and the prevalence of spread offenses dictates lots of 4-man fronts anyway.
Obviously, Johnson/Orchard/Holmes are defensive end candidates here (although all three did surprise in coverage last season, and one of them could be a decent strong side linebacker in a 4-3 as well).
But this I haven't written before: Williams might well run more "wide nine" with this crew than he ever has before.
That's a four man front, but exploits the fact that the offensive linemen have to set up in a fixed pattern, with a limitted range of gap-distances between them.
Two defensive ends set up well out of the two offensive tackles' range, blatently threatening to blow past behind them on their way to the quarterback. The ends are FAST, and the tackles almost have to launch themselves backwards at the snap, trying to get in their way.
This puts most of them off-balance and overcommited outside, which makes "inside moves" easy for the two edge-rushers. Give Jim Schwartze credit here: it consistently minimizes the offensive tackle's size advantage, and maximizes the defensive end's quickness and speed; it puts the big guys off-balance.
Naturally, the wide 9 opens up big gaps. Offenses try to run inside the tackles against it, and (with some quarterbacks) can roll out on passes. Exceptional tackles can dictate inside or outside moves, and smart coordinators can exploit this to hammer those big gaps.
Got your hip-waders on?
Contrary to popular conclusion-leaping, the wide 9 needs "benders" (ie passrushers who can get low to the ground to turn a corner around a lunging, reaching, 6'5" offensive tackle) like it needs a hole in the head.
The ideal wide 9 defensive end combines power with speed, and is a generally linear passrusher who combines these traits with leverage and power.
That's because they already HAVE the edge due to where they set up. What's more important for them is an ability to "crash down" on those cordially-invited inside runs or quarterback scrambles.
Edge-rushers in the wide 9 need to be smart: They need to look past the blocker into the backfield, and react to that, rather than the sucker-bet block.
And they need to use leverage and strength to intercept (or at least redirect or delay) that inside run.
The Browns are STACKED with players who can do this, and that includes Carl Nassib.
This is another reason why calling "edge" a position of need here is ignorant.
This is also DePodestian: Gregg Williams has already told him what what he intends to make of the talent he has, about his ideal defense, who he needs short term and long term, and why.
Edge-rusher, I guarantee you, is at or near the BOTTOM of that list. My wide 9 theory is speculative, yes, but I'm prepared to think Gregg Williams is almost as smart as my humble self, until he proves me wrong. (That's just the kinda generous guy I am!).
This is why I more than half way expect a trade-down. Everybody wants Myles Garrett. It's not like the Andrew Luck fenzy, but it's close.
In conclusion, I would settle for Myles Garrett if you twist my arm hard enough, but prefer a boatload of draft picks, and hopefully Trubisky, instead.
THE BROWNS DO NOT NEED AN EDGE RUSHER. THEY DO NEED A FRANCHISE QUARTERBACK and stuff...DO YOU UNDERSTAND yet?
This time, it's LaCanfora repeating what Mary Kay says. Sometimes, it's the reverse. When you read "according to sources", that's often what they mean.
So, now Jimmy Haslam wants Trubisky first overall?
Based on what?
Well, I suppose that since it's MKC the beat writer, she might have caught an actual leak. But as far as I can determine, that leak said that Haslam wanted "a quarterback", period.
The janitor might have overheard Jimmy ask Sashi Brown (with a grin) "But you are going to get me a quarterback, right?" (it's pretty obvious that the Browns will draft one somewhere in this draft--hence the grin).
Trubisky is being considered at first overall? Well, the other rumor is that Trubes is their favorite one...but at first overall, instead of Myles Garrett?
There's a whole lot of assuming going on around here, and remember: When you ASSUME, you make an ass of yourself.
Two things are more likely than not to be true here:
1: Jimmy wants a quarterback, and 2: Trubisky is Hue's favorite. But that's it.
It doesn't mean that they want him first overall, that the owner is pushing for Trubisky in particular, or that Hue considers Deshaun Watson, Patrick Mahomes, or even Webb or Josh Dobbs as significantly less capable.
The rest of this is speculation, and it's not even quality speculation.
Part of this is the premise that the Browns would never dare trade down from Myles Garrett...but might draft Trubisky first overall instead?
Well, if you've read my previous posts, you know that it's better than 50/50 that if the Browns traded down (to five in my example), they could still nab Trubisky, plus two more high picks, including 18 overall.
Now, if you're a box-thinker, you think it's unthinkable not to draft a generational passrusher for any price, and that Hue Jackson can't possibly like more than one quarterback.
I address the generational passrusher vs price thing in the aforementioned posts. Good arguments can be made on both sides of that issue, except when a potential franchise quarterback is the intended alternative. The "there can be only one" quarterback thing is simply irrational.
Full circle: Let's assume Jimmy Haslam really does want a quarterback. This is news? Let's assume that Trubisky is the top contender. This makes everybody else a bunch of bumbs? This makes him a first overall draft pick? Where is this coming from? Somebody's off their meds here!
Now, I am speculating here, because the Browns may well be content to just take Garrett at first, and get their quarterback later (maybe not even at 12). Trubisky might not even be their favorite!
But at least my speculation is based on my accurate understanding of what DePodesta does for a living ("moneyball" oh shut tf up!), all credible scouting reports on all the quarterbacks, Hue Jackson's own words on franchise quarterbacks, this offensive system, and known facts.
This really smart article by a Jets writer suggests that the Browns and Jets are discussing a trade in which the Browns move from 12 to 6 (the Jets pick) in order to grab Trubisky (if he lasts that long) rings true.
Rich Cimini is the writer, and he groks all this stuff:
This is a contingency trade, and Sashi Brown is trying to pre-arrange a whole slew of them.
I know, Mike Mayock and a bunch of other smart people have said that drafting any quarterback at 6th overall in this draft would be a big reach, but all that matters is what Hue and the Browns think.
This hypothetical trade assumes Garrett is in the bank, and that the Browns indeed see Trubisky as more promising (and/or safer) than the other quarterbacks.
Cimini says the Jets would want the top second round pick at 33 for this, but #52 represents a fairer price per the value chart. Due to their leverage (it's a quarterback, after all), the Jets can demand more. The final price could be 52 and a 2018 third or fourth round pick.
More speculation for Cimini and me. But you see, it's not a blockbuster. It implies that Sashi and company are ready to let Trubisky go if the asking price is too high for him.
This is part of what's being called "analytics": There are no absolutes. We're not talking about Andrew Luck here, and even if we were, he'd have a maximum-bid limit. There are no stars in anybody's eyes. No desperation.
(Speculating here): Maybe they think Trubisky is most adaptable to the Pros in general and Jackson's Corryallian West Coast in particular, and has the highest floor (ie better than Brian Hoyer). Watson's velocity and supporting cast, and Mahomes's unpredictability make their respective floors much lower.
They're using really deep mathematical models here, but Hue Jackson and the other football people heavily influenced DePodesta when he built them DO YOU UNDERSTAND?
Anyway, Trubisky is not worth most of the 2017 and part of the 2018 drafts to move up to second overall. He is not THAT MUCH better than the other guys in his own draft class, or even neccessarily a "top twenty" starter.
But in the Browns current predicament, they think he's worth maybe 12, 52, and a 2018 third round pick (and not a penny more).
This trade would be widely panned as an overreach, and some ignoramus would call it "panic"...so they just need to be right.
If Trubisky is nabbed before the Titans pick, no trade, and the Browns will draft their quarterback later.
Pat Kirwan says "If Trubisky is your guy, then just use all that ammo and trade up to number two to get him!"
For Kirwan, like a lot of these guys, there can be only one. This is absolutism, and is irrational. In fact, while Hue Jackson is being very vague about these quarterbacks, he's been very clear on his philosophy:
A quarterback needs accuracy, arm talent, and to be able to be the "face of the franchise". The height and other stuff are secondary. He even said that a strong running game, good receivers, and good defense make a franchise quarterback.
Why am I the only one who believed him, or even remembers he said it? Perhaps because I'm the only one to whome it made sense?
But no--there can be only one! Trubisky or we're all gonna die!!! "Mahomes? Gee thanks, Sashi. Might as well hand me my pink slip now!"
See earlier posts about this.
Now, Pat Kirwan is, like Bill Polian, kind of a Martonian blockhead, but he did turn me onto "defensive end" DeMarcus Walker in this draft:
He's probably a third day pick, and is far from perfect as a defensive end. His arms are also a little short.
But he was a track star in highschool, and his events included the 100 yard dash, the high hurdles, and a relay race. I can't remember the distances or details, but Walker set a couple school records in the hurdles, and Pat pointed out that in his relay race, he was the guy who ran around the turn.
He was a big monster in highschool, too, by the way. His weight-room numbers are competitive with those of offensive linemen.
DeMarcus is currently 280 lbs., but could pump himself up bigger. Pat Kirwan immediately projected him as a 3-tech defensive tackle (a legitimate Gregg Williams need here).
Pat loves his first step, hands, strength, and long speed, and thinks he can compete for a starting role early in his career. He should be able to out-quick guards, penetrate, and pursue.
There's a sleeper alert. Last year, Tyrone Holmes was one of my sleepers.
I read Bleacher Report's draft preview. I was thrilled by the offensive side of it, as they gave Shon Coleman some props, projected DeValve as a nice future asset, colored center and running back covered, and even said Cody Kessler was more than a bumb.
I think a different writer did the defensive side, because I couldn't even force myself to read all of it. That's part of my training: Once a clear pattern of bullshit is established, stop looking at it, and try to forget what you saw to that point.
But some of it is indelibly seared into my memory:
Carl Nassib should not be used as an outside passrusher any more. Just on run downs, or inside. The Browns need outside linebackers badly. Nate Orchard and Johnson are outside linebackers---not defensive ends--in Williams' defense. Joe Haden might be washed up. Several ROOKIES got final judgements, complete with tombstones.
The offensive side was very insightful, as it went beyond analytical numbers, and allowed for first and second year players to make their predictable leaps, implicitly factored in the two backup centers, etc.
Then this massively negative steaming pile of LaCanfora on the defensive side!!!
I have to suggest to the Bleacher Report that they send the incompetent boob who did the defensive side of their predraft analysis their link to this blog that I foolishly gave them when I tried to write for them. He can join the growing crowd of assholes that raid this blog without attribution (gdammit you scumbags).
Err...sorry. Anyway Orchard, Johnson, and Holmes can all be edge-rushers at defensive end in a 4-3, as well as from 3-4 OLB. Kirksey can play ILB or on the weak side, as well as MLB. Collins can play MLB (along with every other position in any scheme).
You'll need to go back awhile in my entries to find this, but Gregg Williams is most likely to run more 4-3 with the talent he has inheritted, and the prevalence of spread offenses dictates lots of 4-man fronts anyway.
Obviously, Johnson/Orchard/Holmes are defensive end candidates here (although all three did surprise in coverage last season, and one of them could be a decent strong side linebacker in a 4-3 as well).
But this I haven't written before: Williams might well run more "wide nine" with this crew than he ever has before.
That's a four man front, but exploits the fact that the offensive linemen have to set up in a fixed pattern, with a limitted range of gap-distances between them.
Two defensive ends set up well out of the two offensive tackles' range, blatently threatening to blow past behind them on their way to the quarterback. The ends are FAST, and the tackles almost have to launch themselves backwards at the snap, trying to get in their way.
This puts most of them off-balance and overcommited outside, which makes "inside moves" easy for the two edge-rushers. Give Jim Schwartze credit here: it consistently minimizes the offensive tackle's size advantage, and maximizes the defensive end's quickness and speed; it puts the big guys off-balance.
Naturally, the wide 9 opens up big gaps. Offenses try to run inside the tackles against it, and (with some quarterbacks) can roll out on passes. Exceptional tackles can dictate inside or outside moves, and smart coordinators can exploit this to hammer those big gaps.
Got your hip-waders on?
Contrary to popular conclusion-leaping, the wide 9 needs "benders" (ie passrushers who can get low to the ground to turn a corner around a lunging, reaching, 6'5" offensive tackle) like it needs a hole in the head.
The ideal wide 9 defensive end combines power with speed, and is a generally linear passrusher who combines these traits with leverage and power.
That's because they already HAVE the edge due to where they set up. What's more important for them is an ability to "crash down" on those cordially-invited inside runs or quarterback scrambles.
Edge-rushers in the wide 9 need to be smart: They need to look past the blocker into the backfield, and react to that, rather than the sucker-bet block.
And they need to use leverage and strength to intercept (or at least redirect or delay) that inside run.
The Browns are STACKED with players who can do this, and that includes Carl Nassib.
This is another reason why calling "edge" a position of need here is ignorant.
This is also DePodestian: Gregg Williams has already told him what what he intends to make of the talent he has, about his ideal defense, who he needs short term and long term, and why.
Edge-rusher, I guarantee you, is at or near the BOTTOM of that list. My wide 9 theory is speculative, yes, but I'm prepared to think Gregg Williams is almost as smart as my humble self, until he proves me wrong. (That's just the kinda generous guy I am!).
This is why I more than half way expect a trade-down. Everybody wants Myles Garrett. It's not like the Andrew Luck fenzy, but it's close.
In conclusion, I would settle for Myles Garrett if you twist my arm hard enough, but prefer a boatload of draft picks, and hopefully Trubisky, instead.
THE BROWNS DO NOT NEED AN EDGE RUSHER. THEY DO NEED A FRANCHISE QUARTERBACK and stuff...DO YOU UNDERSTAND yet?
Monday, April 17, 2017
Cleveland Browns Draft Analyisis: New Crew, Renewed Hope
Ten days and counting to the Browns Superbowl!
The analyses have been surprisingly good lately, so I can't find anybody to pick on, except for those mock drafters who expect Mitch Trubisky to be available at #12.
That would be perfect for the Browns, of course. I just don't think it's realistic.
I caught part of a radio show in which the prospect of trading first overall to the Redskins for Kirk Cousins was brought up.
I'd do it, if he had agreed to a long-term contract first, but I doubt that, too.
Peter Smith's "final" mock draft was really smart! I still consider a trade-down (for Trubisky, Allen Robinson, Hooker and HIGH picks) as likely as not, but Pete picks Myles Garrett, which is ok with me.
Like another humble genius I know, he likes Patrick Mahomes at 12. Peter thinks that Hue Jackson can coach him up for the 2018 season. He didn't mention this, but Hue would also tweak the offense somewhat to ease the kid's transition.
I suspect that if the Browns had a different Head Coach, Peter might not make this pick, because Mahomes is really, really, extremely raw.
Once again, he takes defensive back Chidobe Awuzie atop round two. Awuzie played every position on defense, but he looks fully capable of playing center field for Gregg Williams.
A note on this: Malik Hooker is the unmistakeable top dog at FREE safety here (Ed Reed). Jamal Adams is more a stong safety, Troy Polumalu type.
Gregg Williams wants both of these (remember, Polumalu was part linebacker). Awuzie looks like he could actually fill either role--but, as Peter notes, the Browns don't actually need strong safeties.
In several ways, Awuzie is as good or better than Hooker and Adams, because he can play any back end position, so Williams could move him around, depending on matchups and situations.
And while it seems doubtful that he could match either of these top two players in their respective roles, he has all it takes to be a close second in BOTH.
As Peter points out, because Awuzie played all over the place, he hasn't built a strong resume at any one position. I can add here that he also has more upside at every position; notably at free safety.
Free safeties call coverages, and have to be brainiacs, almost like quarterbacks, pre-snap. If they take a couple false steps, a 10 yard catch turns into a touchdown. Awuzie has pretty much proven himself as a cornerback and strong safety, but free safety is a whole different gig.
Peter is loading up on free safeties as at #52 he drafts free safety Marcus Williams. I'll trust Peter here: He gets turnovers, is a pure free safety, and does a lot of the same stuff as the more heralded Malik Hooker.
Pete doesn't say this, but my guess is that he's remembering DeValve and the three wide recievers drafted in 2016, and trying to create intense competition and great depth at a position of need.
This is one reason why I call this a very smart mock draft: Williams and Awuzie duke it out at free safety. The best man wins.
If it's Awuzie, then we have awesome depth at free safety, and Williams plays a lot anyway, as Awuzie moves around. If it's Williams, then Awuzie plays the Polumalu role, and otherwise backs up free, nickel, and cornerback.
Atop round 3, it's once again tight end Adam Shaheen. I love it! He has a good chance of being there, and he has the tools to be a REAL tight end (as opposed to the Seth DeValve 2 Grossi blew the top second round pick on).
Shaheen played at the lowest level of competition, and will probably need a lot of work, but he has Gronkian physical traits.
I'm weary of being told to "pump the brakes" when I make these comparisons. Gronk has Tom Brady throwing to him. Shaheen has similar size, speed, hands, and toughness. It's valid. If he works hard and takes coaching, he can be like Gronk. Yes, he can.
Hue Jackson wants at least one real tight end, who can block in-line AND catch passes (is that too much to ask for? Seems like it IS!)
If drafted, Shaheen isn't a long-term project. He can contribute as a receiver after awhile in 2017. Unlike a wide receiver, he relies on his catch radius and physicality, and his route-tree (inside) is "shorter". He's also more often a secondary or tertiary "eyeball" target, so if he's too deep or shallow on his route, he's still a good option for a quarterback under pressure (regardless of coverage.)
Atop the 4th round, Peter likes DT Jaleel Johnson, who he says is best-suited to the 3-tech role, despite his poor combine numbers.
Pete says he's not fast, or explosive, but wins battles with excellent hands, technique, and leverage. Pete sort of compares him to Broderick Bunkley, and feels he could be disruptive in that role, plus good vs the run, plus back up at nose or on the strong side.
Johnson is 6'2.5", 316 lbs, and plays faster than his timed speeds in real games.
I was glad to see Peter address this position, and will buy this pick for a dollar.
Atop round 5, Peter drafts cornerback Shaquille Griffin. Griffin, at a shade under 6' and 194, benched 19 times and ran 4.38, ok?
He needs refinement, except he's got the tackling part pretty much taken care of. He has all the tools to become an elite cornerback with dedication and good coaching, but for now could be a great special teamer, and possibly actually play on defense in 2017. Tremendous upside here!
Pete's second pick in the 5th round is an almost 6'3", 219 lb, 4.43 wide receiver project named Robert Davis, who I reckon Pete sees as best available.
Robert needs a lot of work on routes and technique, but has good hands, and his 3-cone and other combine numbers say he has great upside too. This guy could knock one of the three wide receivers drafted in 2016 off the roster.
So be it. Competition is good. Competition works.
At the next 5th round pick it's linebacker Erick Wilson (another best available). Erick is a little under 6'2" and 230 lbs., but is a converted safety.
He's a situational or depth guy in 2017, and (Peter doesn't say this) a good special teams candidate.
That's my own opinion, because Peter Smith thinks that he could immediately play WIL in in the base alignment (start), depending on what Gregg Williams makes of his roster.
Williams (4.53 40, nice agility for his size), might be a huge sleeper.
By the way, Grumpy old man Buzz Kill Bill says there's no such thing as a sleeper. I'm really getting sick of this guy. I suppose he saw Russell Wilson, Dak Prescott, Joe Montana, and all those other lower round picks and undrafteds all along. I mean, this guy is just...nevermind.
In round 6 it's DT Tanziel Smart, who could be a HUGE sleeper at 3-technique. He played for Tulane, and led his team in tfls and sacks.
Like Johnson, his 5.36 40 time wasn't so hot, but he plays faster. Unlike Johnson, his agility drills were impressive for a guy almost 6'3", 297 lbs.
His scouting report says he overshoots too much, is slow to change directions, isn't instinctive (my translation), and needs a LOT of work.
I like this pick fine too. Peter is hammering another position of REAL need, and looking down the road apiece, toward sustained success. Xavier Cooper needs to deliver, right tf now, or he could get CUT.
Peter's last pick is strong safety Shalom Luani in the 6th round. This pick is more on combine numbers and college production than anything else, since he is another project with lots of flaws.
I personally would probably disagree with this pick if
I'd done the research and film study that Peter does, because I see this guy as a probable cut.
And I can tweak Peter's draft now, with my own:
Trade-down from first overall, to start with, to 5th overall for 18 overall, the Titans 2017 second round pick, and their 2018 first round pick:
No Myles Garrett. DEAL with it!
Ok so then Trubisky if he's there at 5. If he is, skip Mahones at 12 and nab some stud immediate impact player there instead.
If Trubisky is not there, then we might well settle for merely just that bumb 3 tech DT Jonathan Allen. (Not sure how we'd survive this disaster).
Then Mahomes at 12, but Peter Smith is scrambling to adjust for the 3-tech being filled, and 18th overall on-deck.
I'll wildly guess that at 18 he would draft Ryan Ramscyk, who projects as a very good left tackle down the road, and a potential starter (certainly the best pass-protecting one) at right tackle in 2017.
After that, I guess Peter would pick the same guys, except for the defensive tackles.
Peter might nab another edge-rusher or running back (despite the fact that we have too many of both already) because this draft is deep in both, and an upgrade is an upgrade.
Here's my bottom line: Ramscyk, Allen, Trubisky, Howard, and Fournette don't suck. A high second round pick probably won't suck. A low 2018 first round pick probably won't suck.
Myles Garrett might be better than all of these other guys individually (if he doesn't get hurt), but the chances of his offsetting Allen/Trubisky, Ramsczyk/Adams, a high 2017 second round and low 2018 first round pick are remote, here on this planet.
No, stop it: There is a new Sherriff in town. What happened before he came here is utterly meaningless. Declaring ANY player from his first draft class a bust is premature, not to mention hysterical.
And you read this now: I predict that the 2016 class will grade out at least above average over time, and the 2017 class will kick ass. Trading down from Myles Garrett is smart, if these NEW guys know what they're doing...DO YOU U N D E R S T A N D?
And when the hell did Jonathan Allen turn into a chump anyway? When did Trubisky stop being a quarterback? And when did Hue Jackson become mentally impaired?
Oh yeah I know: When he came to Cleveland!
Oknevermind.
The analyses have been surprisingly good lately, so I can't find anybody to pick on, except for those mock drafters who expect Mitch Trubisky to be available at #12.
That would be perfect for the Browns, of course. I just don't think it's realistic.
I caught part of a radio show in which the prospect of trading first overall to the Redskins for Kirk Cousins was brought up.
I'd do it, if he had agreed to a long-term contract first, but I doubt that, too.
Peter Smith's "final" mock draft was really smart! I still consider a trade-down (for Trubisky, Allen Robinson, Hooker and HIGH picks) as likely as not, but Pete picks Myles Garrett, which is ok with me.
Like another humble genius I know, he likes Patrick Mahomes at 12. Peter thinks that Hue Jackson can coach him up for the 2018 season. He didn't mention this, but Hue would also tweak the offense somewhat to ease the kid's transition.
I suspect that if the Browns had a different Head Coach, Peter might not make this pick, because Mahomes is really, really, extremely raw.
Once again, he takes defensive back Chidobe Awuzie atop round two. Awuzie played every position on defense, but he looks fully capable of playing center field for Gregg Williams.
A note on this: Malik Hooker is the unmistakeable top dog at FREE safety here (Ed Reed). Jamal Adams is more a stong safety, Troy Polumalu type.
Gregg Williams wants both of these (remember, Polumalu was part linebacker). Awuzie looks like he could actually fill either role--but, as Peter notes, the Browns don't actually need strong safeties.
In several ways, Awuzie is as good or better than Hooker and Adams, because he can play any back end position, so Williams could move him around, depending on matchups and situations.
And while it seems doubtful that he could match either of these top two players in their respective roles, he has all it takes to be a close second in BOTH.
As Peter points out, because Awuzie played all over the place, he hasn't built a strong resume at any one position. I can add here that he also has more upside at every position; notably at free safety.
Free safeties call coverages, and have to be brainiacs, almost like quarterbacks, pre-snap. If they take a couple false steps, a 10 yard catch turns into a touchdown. Awuzie has pretty much proven himself as a cornerback and strong safety, but free safety is a whole different gig.
Peter is loading up on free safeties as at #52 he drafts free safety Marcus Williams. I'll trust Peter here: He gets turnovers, is a pure free safety, and does a lot of the same stuff as the more heralded Malik Hooker.
Pete doesn't say this, but my guess is that he's remembering DeValve and the three wide recievers drafted in 2016, and trying to create intense competition and great depth at a position of need.
This is one reason why I call this a very smart mock draft: Williams and Awuzie duke it out at free safety. The best man wins.
If it's Awuzie, then we have awesome depth at free safety, and Williams plays a lot anyway, as Awuzie moves around. If it's Williams, then Awuzie plays the Polumalu role, and otherwise backs up free, nickel, and cornerback.
Atop round 3, it's once again tight end Adam Shaheen. I love it! He has a good chance of being there, and he has the tools to be a REAL tight end (as opposed to the Seth DeValve 2 Grossi blew the top second round pick on).
Shaheen played at the lowest level of competition, and will probably need a lot of work, but he has Gronkian physical traits.
I'm weary of being told to "pump the brakes" when I make these comparisons. Gronk has Tom Brady throwing to him. Shaheen has similar size, speed, hands, and toughness. It's valid. If he works hard and takes coaching, he can be like Gronk. Yes, he can.
Hue Jackson wants at least one real tight end, who can block in-line AND catch passes (is that too much to ask for? Seems like it IS!)
If drafted, Shaheen isn't a long-term project. He can contribute as a receiver after awhile in 2017. Unlike a wide receiver, he relies on his catch radius and physicality, and his route-tree (inside) is "shorter". He's also more often a secondary or tertiary "eyeball" target, so if he's too deep or shallow on his route, he's still a good option for a quarterback under pressure (regardless of coverage.)
Atop the 4th round, Peter likes DT Jaleel Johnson, who he says is best-suited to the 3-tech role, despite his poor combine numbers.
Pete says he's not fast, or explosive, but wins battles with excellent hands, technique, and leverage. Pete sort of compares him to Broderick Bunkley, and feels he could be disruptive in that role, plus good vs the run, plus back up at nose or on the strong side.
Johnson is 6'2.5", 316 lbs, and plays faster than his timed speeds in real games.
I was glad to see Peter address this position, and will buy this pick for a dollar.
Atop round 5, Peter drafts cornerback Shaquille Griffin. Griffin, at a shade under 6' and 194, benched 19 times and ran 4.38, ok?
He needs refinement, except he's got the tackling part pretty much taken care of. He has all the tools to become an elite cornerback with dedication and good coaching, but for now could be a great special teamer, and possibly actually play on defense in 2017. Tremendous upside here!
Pete's second pick in the 5th round is an almost 6'3", 219 lb, 4.43 wide receiver project named Robert Davis, who I reckon Pete sees as best available.
Robert needs a lot of work on routes and technique, but has good hands, and his 3-cone and other combine numbers say he has great upside too. This guy could knock one of the three wide receivers drafted in 2016 off the roster.
So be it. Competition is good. Competition works.
At the next 5th round pick it's linebacker Erick Wilson (another best available). Erick is a little under 6'2" and 230 lbs., but is a converted safety.
He's a situational or depth guy in 2017, and (Peter doesn't say this) a good special teams candidate.
That's my own opinion, because Peter Smith thinks that he could immediately play WIL in in the base alignment (start), depending on what Gregg Williams makes of his roster.
Williams (4.53 40, nice agility for his size), might be a huge sleeper.
By the way, Grumpy old man Buzz Kill Bill says there's no such thing as a sleeper. I'm really getting sick of this guy. I suppose he saw Russell Wilson, Dak Prescott, Joe Montana, and all those other lower round picks and undrafteds all along. I mean, this guy is just...nevermind.
In round 6 it's DT Tanziel Smart, who could be a HUGE sleeper at 3-technique. He played for Tulane, and led his team in tfls and sacks.
Like Johnson, his 5.36 40 time wasn't so hot, but he plays faster. Unlike Johnson, his agility drills were impressive for a guy almost 6'3", 297 lbs.
His scouting report says he overshoots too much, is slow to change directions, isn't instinctive (my translation), and needs a LOT of work.
I like this pick fine too. Peter is hammering another position of REAL need, and looking down the road apiece, toward sustained success. Xavier Cooper needs to deliver, right tf now, or he could get CUT.
Peter's last pick is strong safety Shalom Luani in the 6th round. This pick is more on combine numbers and college production than anything else, since he is another project with lots of flaws.
I personally would probably disagree with this pick if
I'd done the research and film study that Peter does, because I see this guy as a probable cut.
And I can tweak Peter's draft now, with my own:
Trade-down from first overall, to start with, to 5th overall for 18 overall, the Titans 2017 second round pick, and their 2018 first round pick:
No Myles Garrett. DEAL with it!
Ok so then Trubisky if he's there at 5. If he is, skip Mahones at 12 and nab some stud immediate impact player there instead.
If Trubisky is not there, then we might well settle for merely just that bumb 3 tech DT Jonathan Allen. (Not sure how we'd survive this disaster).
Then Mahomes at 12, but Peter Smith is scrambling to adjust for the 3-tech being filled, and 18th overall on-deck.
I'll wildly guess that at 18 he would draft Ryan Ramscyk, who projects as a very good left tackle down the road, and a potential starter (certainly the best pass-protecting one) at right tackle in 2017.
After that, I guess Peter would pick the same guys, except for the defensive tackles.
Peter might nab another edge-rusher or running back (despite the fact that we have too many of both already) because this draft is deep in both, and an upgrade is an upgrade.
Here's my bottom line: Ramscyk, Allen, Trubisky, Howard, and Fournette don't suck. A high second round pick probably won't suck. A low 2018 first round pick probably won't suck.
Myles Garrett might be better than all of these other guys individually (if he doesn't get hurt), but the chances of his offsetting Allen/Trubisky, Ramsczyk/Adams, a high 2017 second round and low 2018 first round pick are remote, here on this planet.
No, stop it: There is a new Sherriff in town. What happened before he came here is utterly meaningless. Declaring ANY player from his first draft class a bust is premature, not to mention hysterical.
And you read this now: I predict that the 2016 class will grade out at least above average over time, and the 2017 class will kick ass. Trading down from Myles Garrett is smart, if these NEW guys know what they're doing...DO YOU U N D E R S T A N D?
And when the hell did Jonathan Allen turn into a chump anyway? When did Trubisky stop being a quarterback? And when did Hue Jackson become mentally impaired?
Oh yeah I know: When he came to Cleveland!
Oknevermind.
Sunday, April 16, 2017
Browns Draft Trade Options (Away From Garrett)
Plan A: 12th overall, and (MAXIMUM) 2017 #52, second second round pick in 2018 for Jimmy Garopollo.
Plan B: First overall for Jimmy G, and (MINIMUM) the Patriots 2017 third round pick and a 2018 second round pick.
Plan C: #12 and Josh Gordon for Jimmy G.
Plan D: The 3-way trade with Seattle for Jimmy G (costing 12, a 2017 4th round pick, and a 2018 third round pick: doubtful).
Plan E: Trade down from 1st overall (I used Tennessee as an example; they do draft ahead of the Jets). This could work with everything above except plan B: The Browns get 5, 18, and a 2018 first round pick, which should be in the mid to low 20s).
Now, here it is possible for Mitch Trubisky to make it to 5 (12 is a dream) if the Jets (or somebody else) doesn't leapfrog the Browns.
This presupposes that Trubisky is Hue Jackson's favorite lump of clay. I will also presuppose that Mahomes and Watson are both "acceptable".
To explain this again, Hue Jackson, I believe, thinks he can turn any quarterback who checks his boxes and is a dedicated and serious student. Especially with an improving defense, dominating offensive line, strong running game, and good receivers.
This, in turn, presupposes that the Browns would be willing to risk somebody else nabbing Mitch Trubisky. Most old schoolers will call me insane...but I still can't figure out why.
I'm also presupposing that there has been no Garopollo trade, of course, or that there has been one, which takes Trubisky off the board anyway.
On to scenario A: The Browns have Jimmy Garopollo and no 12th overall. Scenario B presumes that 12 is still there (no Jimmy), but that Mitch is off the board (I think they'd take him if he's not--he's oddly enough the safest of all the quarterbacks).
In either of these scenarios, Malik Hooker, Trubisky, and Garrett are likely to be gone. Those with a decent shot to make it to 5 include Jamal Adams, Lattimore, and Jonathan Allen.
With the secondary depth in this draft, the numbers win here: If available, it's DT Jonathan Allen, who, prior to the combine, some had rated ahead of Myles Garrett.
Because the Browns have only one passrushing defensive tackle, and FIVE edge-rushers on the current roster, and since the dropoff from Allen is pretty steep, he's the ideal bird in the hand for Gregg Williams in 2017.
Williams keeps telling everybody that he runs all sorts of different fronts, but the extreme prevalence of spread offenses in the NFL pushes every defense into a 4-man front the majority of the time.
Also, if Williams does have a "tendancy", it's 4 down linemen anyway, and THE key player is that "3-technique" penetrating "under" tackle...ie Allen in spades.
This player overmatches interior offensive linemen, and requires double teams. He comes straight at the quarterback from a shallow angle, and is way more disruptive than any edge-rusher.
He would set up between Shelton and Ogbah here. If you don't gang up on Danny Shelton, he will drive you back into your backfield.
Most fans don't know this about Ogbah, but he got a lot of his pressures and sacks crossing the left tackle's face, and going between him and the guard. He also stunted a lot. Ray Farmer really made the most of him, and deserves credit for that.
This won't be lost on Gregg Williams, but there is tape on Ogbah now, and he'll have to expand his game (you know, like most second year players do, as they predictably improve with experience?)
Opposing offenses rarely double-teamed Ogbah. They relied on their left tackles, which was their undoing. Joe Thomas might not have been able to stop him coming inside like that.
The trade-off here is that in 2017, offenses will attack the left edge on the ground, and with screen passes. Ogbah will have to stay outside more (like a normal defensive end).
Ogbah is a "linear" passrusher, and can't "bend the edge" like Myles Garrett can. He does have good speed and explosion for his size, freakish strength, and uses leverage well. He will never match Garrett as a pure passrusher, but he might get double digit sacks with a Jonathan Allen next to him, can hold the edge etc., and is an excellent all-around football player.
Ogbah can and will defeat the majority of left tackles he faces rushing outside. Joe Thomas and fewer than ten others can stop him there, but he can purely torture the majority of them, as he can jack them up and drive them back like Clay Matthews did later in his carreer.
...Err, by the way, Bill Polian: Matthews couldn't "bend the edge" either, so I wonder where his eighteen sacks in one season came from...
Anyway Ogbah will never be double-teamed, unless it's a...no he just plain won't be, if a Jonathan Allen is here.
But this is how Gregg Williams wants this to work: The under-tackle has to be a huge pain in the ass. The edge guys are secondary DO YOU UNDERSTAND? The free safety must be exceptional, and he also needs somebody like Troy Polumalu underneath. Everybody else needs to be able to rush the passer, and can otherwise be "servicable" (except for at least one "shut-down" man corner).
This is why I've been telling you: Jonathan Allen would probably help the Browns MORE than Myles Garrett would!
Rodney Nassibfield should, realisticly, return in 2017 pumped up to near a rock-solid 300 lbs. He should retain, or even improve, his 4.7 40 time.
He was a super-sack master in college, and until he broke his hand in his R O O K I E season, he was unstoppable. No, I mean they were double-teaming him and still had to tackle him and stuff. (As we know, this is legal vs Browns players).
He didn't come back from that injury, and was mediocre for the balance of 2016.
Part of this was because Ray Horton had to minimize his role as Des Bryant went down, and he had to lean on oknevermind just trust me here dammit.
Carl Nassib, though once considered an OLB prospect, is actually a prototype 4-3 defensive end. He is a natural passrusher, but also has the size and reach to hold the edge and stop the run.
He is absolutely the top candidate to start on the strong side in his S E C O N D season, because Nate Orchard and the others are comparatively light in the loafers (note on Orchard, though: He surprised against the run--nice depth here!).
Nassib is a shoe-in on the strong side, because his quickness and speed overmatches ALL right tackles, he can keep them off him with his length, and he'll be big and strong enough to shrug off chip blocks.
I hereby predict a big year for Carl Nassib. Sacks, tackles for losses, and deflections. Just wait and see.
A note on double-teams: We tend to think it's two side-by-side offensive linemen ganging up on a guy, but it's often a center or guard rotating back all the way to an edge. Just try that with Allen and Shelton in there!
Now, Garrett and Allen would be better than Allen and Ogbah, but Garrett and Cooper isn't as good as Ogbah and Allen in a Gregg Williams defense. Is any of this sinking in yet?
Allrighty then! Ok so now we got 12 up next (no Jimmy/no Mitch).
Ok this requires some contemplation: Watson (if he's still here) is the consensus pick, but my hunch is that the braincrust prefers Mahomes.
Good chance Mahomes lasts to 18. Not so Watson. But this is a quarterback, and you are the Cleveland Browns, so you just head the inevittable screw job off at the pass and pull the trigger on Mahomes (over Watson).
I might be fulla beans here, because Watson did what he did, under the brightest conveivable lights, vs the scariest conceivable competition, under the most conceivable pressure.
I just lean toward Mahomes because he's more accurate, didn't have anywhere near the same supporting cast, spead the ball around ("vision"), has a cannon arm, appears physicly tougher, and did what he did without proper mechanics, on unadulterated raw talent.
Oh no doubt for sure, Deshaun is more pro-ready (and a safer bet), but I remind you: I personally remember John Elway. Mahomes is being compared to Matthew Stafford, which I suppose is apt. But John Elway is much more accurate here, I'm telling you.
For "Mick" Jackson, a boxing analogy works here: "Da kid has great power, excellent reflexes, a hard head, great balance, and guts. Once I teach him to throw straight punches and how to duck, he's gonna be unstoppable!"
Some experts think Mahomes (asuming he can succeed) is two years away, but this is Hue Jackson, and he dictates the offense, so he could show up in 2018.
Now, we got 18th, 33rd, and 52nd overall before we even get to the top of the 4th round!
At 18, we might be looking at two of three eventual left tackles (instant right tackles), safeties out the yinyang, the second-ranked cornerback, possibly Fournette (have to consider best available here, and he's exceptional)...and you get the idea: Another STUD!!!
Now, if you read this and still think Garrett or bust, the Browns front office should have a restraining order out on you.
As usual: I'll settle for just Myles Garrett and Mahomes or Watson if you twist my arm, or even (yes) Trubisky, if Hue thinks so (there I said it).
Plan B: First overall for Jimmy G, and (MINIMUM) the Patriots 2017 third round pick and a 2018 second round pick.
Plan C: #12 and Josh Gordon for Jimmy G.
Plan D: The 3-way trade with Seattle for Jimmy G (costing 12, a 2017 4th round pick, and a 2018 third round pick: doubtful).
Plan E: Trade down from 1st overall (I used Tennessee as an example; they do draft ahead of the Jets). This could work with everything above except plan B: The Browns get 5, 18, and a 2018 first round pick, which should be in the mid to low 20s).
Now, here it is possible for Mitch Trubisky to make it to 5 (12 is a dream) if the Jets (or somebody else) doesn't leapfrog the Browns.
This presupposes that Trubisky is Hue Jackson's favorite lump of clay. I will also presuppose that Mahomes and Watson are both "acceptable".
To explain this again, Hue Jackson, I believe, thinks he can turn any quarterback who checks his boxes and is a dedicated and serious student. Especially with an improving defense, dominating offensive line, strong running game, and good receivers.
This, in turn, presupposes that the Browns would be willing to risk somebody else nabbing Mitch Trubisky. Most old schoolers will call me insane...but I still can't figure out why.
I'm also presupposing that there has been no Garopollo trade, of course, or that there has been one, which takes Trubisky off the board anyway.
On to scenario A: The Browns have Jimmy Garopollo and no 12th overall. Scenario B presumes that 12 is still there (no Jimmy), but that Mitch is off the board (I think they'd take him if he's not--he's oddly enough the safest of all the quarterbacks).
In either of these scenarios, Malik Hooker, Trubisky, and Garrett are likely to be gone. Those with a decent shot to make it to 5 include Jamal Adams, Lattimore, and Jonathan Allen.
With the secondary depth in this draft, the numbers win here: If available, it's DT Jonathan Allen, who, prior to the combine, some had rated ahead of Myles Garrett.
Because the Browns have only one passrushing defensive tackle, and FIVE edge-rushers on the current roster, and since the dropoff from Allen is pretty steep, he's the ideal bird in the hand for Gregg Williams in 2017.
Williams keeps telling everybody that he runs all sorts of different fronts, but the extreme prevalence of spread offenses in the NFL pushes every defense into a 4-man front the majority of the time.
Also, if Williams does have a "tendancy", it's 4 down linemen anyway, and THE key player is that "3-technique" penetrating "under" tackle...ie Allen in spades.
This player overmatches interior offensive linemen, and requires double teams. He comes straight at the quarterback from a shallow angle, and is way more disruptive than any edge-rusher.
He would set up between Shelton and Ogbah here. If you don't gang up on Danny Shelton, he will drive you back into your backfield.
Most fans don't know this about Ogbah, but he got a lot of his pressures and sacks crossing the left tackle's face, and going between him and the guard. He also stunted a lot. Ray Farmer really made the most of him, and deserves credit for that.
This won't be lost on Gregg Williams, but there is tape on Ogbah now, and he'll have to expand his game (you know, like most second year players do, as they predictably improve with experience?)
Opposing offenses rarely double-teamed Ogbah. They relied on their left tackles, which was their undoing. Joe Thomas might not have been able to stop him coming inside like that.
The trade-off here is that in 2017, offenses will attack the left edge on the ground, and with screen passes. Ogbah will have to stay outside more (like a normal defensive end).
Ogbah is a "linear" passrusher, and can't "bend the edge" like Myles Garrett can. He does have good speed and explosion for his size, freakish strength, and uses leverage well. He will never match Garrett as a pure passrusher, but he might get double digit sacks with a Jonathan Allen next to him, can hold the edge etc., and is an excellent all-around football player.
Ogbah can and will defeat the majority of left tackles he faces rushing outside. Joe Thomas and fewer than ten others can stop him there, but he can purely torture the majority of them, as he can jack them up and drive them back like Clay Matthews did later in his carreer.
...Err, by the way, Bill Polian: Matthews couldn't "bend the edge" either, so I wonder where his eighteen sacks in one season came from...
Anyway Ogbah will never be double-teamed, unless it's a...no he just plain won't be, if a Jonathan Allen is here.
But this is how Gregg Williams wants this to work: The under-tackle has to be a huge pain in the ass. The edge guys are secondary DO YOU UNDERSTAND? The free safety must be exceptional, and he also needs somebody like Troy Polumalu underneath. Everybody else needs to be able to rush the passer, and can otherwise be "servicable" (except for at least one "shut-down" man corner).
This is why I've been telling you: Jonathan Allen would probably help the Browns MORE than Myles Garrett would!
Rodney Nassibfield should, realisticly, return in 2017 pumped up to near a rock-solid 300 lbs. He should retain, or even improve, his 4.7 40 time.
He was a super-sack master in college, and until he broke his hand in his R O O K I E season, he was unstoppable. No, I mean they were double-teaming him and still had to tackle him and stuff. (As we know, this is legal vs Browns players).
He didn't come back from that injury, and was mediocre for the balance of 2016.
Part of this was because Ray Horton had to minimize his role as Des Bryant went down, and he had to lean on oknevermind just trust me here dammit.
Carl Nassib, though once considered an OLB prospect, is actually a prototype 4-3 defensive end. He is a natural passrusher, but also has the size and reach to hold the edge and stop the run.
He is absolutely the top candidate to start on the strong side in his S E C O N D season, because Nate Orchard and the others are comparatively light in the loafers (note on Orchard, though: He surprised against the run--nice depth here!).
Nassib is a shoe-in on the strong side, because his quickness and speed overmatches ALL right tackles, he can keep them off him with his length, and he'll be big and strong enough to shrug off chip blocks.
I hereby predict a big year for Carl Nassib. Sacks, tackles for losses, and deflections. Just wait and see.
A note on double-teams: We tend to think it's two side-by-side offensive linemen ganging up on a guy, but it's often a center or guard rotating back all the way to an edge. Just try that with Allen and Shelton in there!
Now, Garrett and Allen would be better than Allen and Ogbah, but Garrett and Cooper isn't as good as Ogbah and Allen in a Gregg Williams defense. Is any of this sinking in yet?
Allrighty then! Ok so now we got 12 up next (no Jimmy/no Mitch).
Ok this requires some contemplation: Watson (if he's still here) is the consensus pick, but my hunch is that the braincrust prefers Mahomes.
Good chance Mahomes lasts to 18. Not so Watson. But this is a quarterback, and you are the Cleveland Browns, so you just head the inevittable screw job off at the pass and pull the trigger on Mahomes (over Watson).
I might be fulla beans here, because Watson did what he did, under the brightest conveivable lights, vs the scariest conceivable competition, under the most conceivable pressure.
I just lean toward Mahomes because he's more accurate, didn't have anywhere near the same supporting cast, spead the ball around ("vision"), has a cannon arm, appears physicly tougher, and did what he did without proper mechanics, on unadulterated raw talent.
Oh no doubt for sure, Deshaun is more pro-ready (and a safer bet), but I remind you: I personally remember John Elway. Mahomes is being compared to Matthew Stafford, which I suppose is apt. But John Elway is much more accurate here, I'm telling you.
For "Mick" Jackson, a boxing analogy works here: "Da kid has great power, excellent reflexes, a hard head, great balance, and guts. Once I teach him to throw straight punches and how to duck, he's gonna be unstoppable!"
Some experts think Mahomes (asuming he can succeed) is two years away, but this is Hue Jackson, and he dictates the offense, so he could show up in 2018.
Now, we got 18th, 33rd, and 52nd overall before we even get to the top of the 4th round!
At 18, we might be looking at two of three eventual left tackles (instant right tackles), safeties out the yinyang, the second-ranked cornerback, possibly Fournette (have to consider best available here, and he's exceptional)...and you get the idea: Another STUD!!!
Now, if you read this and still think Garrett or bust, the Browns front office should have a restraining order out on you.
As usual: I'll settle for just Myles Garrett and Mahomes or Watson if you twist my arm, or even (yes) Trubisky, if Hue thinks so (there I said it).
Saturday, April 15, 2017
Browns Draft Lucid Sane Analysis
The mock drafts are starting to get really entertaining as we close in on the draft. A lot of mockers have the Browns involved in a lot of trades.
My favorite is a three-way with Seattle and New England: Seattle gets the Browns 12th overall, a fourth round pick this year, and maybe a third rounder in 2018. New England gets Richard Sherman. The Browns get Jimmy G.
This makes sense for Seattle and Cleveland, but I think Lord Insideous would want more. Maybe Josh Gordon, and skip the 2018 third rounder?
Another one has the Browns moving from 12 to 2 with the Niners for Trubisky. The price is about right: 12, 33, and two 2018 second round picks.
I want to hate this, but I'm not sure. It depends on how Hue feels about Trubisky.
The buzz around our homie has become really positive lately from nearly everyone who is anyone (except of course the cranky old man: Buzz Kill Bill Polian).
Only Hue Jackson's opinion matters. If HE thinks he can turn Mitch Trubisky into a franchise quarterback (but not Mahomes or Watson), then this is not too high a price to pay.
Everybody has an opinion. Mine is that the top three quarterbacks are pretty close to eachother as prospects, and one or two should remain there at twelve.
But unlike most other fans, I am willing to defer to Hue Jackson on this subject, and won't burn any cars or break any windows should a trade like this happen.
I still prefer my hypothetical trade-down (last post) from first overall.
I need to expand on this: You know I agree that Garrett is a generational talent, and would love for the Browns to have him.
But Jonathan Allen, who projects best as a penetrating defensive tackle, isn't chopped liver. Everybody keeps talking about the Gregg Williams defense as if he runs a wide nine, and relies heavily on edge-pressure.
He does not. He spreads pressure out, and likes inside pressure just fine. That's what Allen would do here, and, in reality, upgrades the defensive line position the Browns need to upgrade.
X Cooper is "it" there on the current roster. I'm hoping that in his third season, at a position he was born to play, under Gregg Williams, he will emerge as a havoc-wreaker, but can't count on it.
Allen is ready to rock, and about as close to a sure thing as Garrett is. Allen would start immediately, and if X comes on strong, we have great depth and a strong rotation for the forseeable future.
Allen was an edge-rushing defensive end himself until his final college season. He is now a defensive tackle with defensive end explosiveness and speed.
What about Malik Hooker? Is he chopped liver now too? He's been compared to Ed Reed and no, that is NOT hype.
Like Allen, he addresses a real need for the real Gregg Williams defense. Williams blitzes more than around 75% of other defenses--or at least tries to.
He needs a center-fielder to do this. That guy not only poaches passes from pressured quarterbacks, but has the range to head big plays off at the pass, as receivers are single-covered, and offenses tend to get rid of the ball quick vs the blitze.
I could go on with Lattimore, Adams, Thomas, etc.; all better fits, and some still there after a small trade-down from Garrett.
This isn't black and white, or absolute. Simpletonians think in these terms: Myles Garrett is a god and everybody else is a punk. A Jonathan Allen or a Malik Hooker would upgrade this particular defense as much as Myles Garrett would---maybe even more.
This is what Paul DePodesta looks for. He is an efficiency expert. In consultation with scouts and coaches, he looks for ways to exploit hype and...well...get free stuff!
Now that I have deprogrammed the Branch Garrettian indoctrination, let's apply this to Mitch Trubisky:
In my hypothetical trade, the Titans coughed up 5th overall, 18th overall, and their 2018 first round pick for Saint Myles.
Now, if the Browns want to trade up to second overall to nail down Trubisky, they could do it for 12 and 18, period.
In this case, the Browns gave up Myles Garrett for Hue's franchise quarterback and a 2018 lower third first round pick, instead of getting Garrett and Trubisky, and losing 3 second round picks, including number 33 in 2017.
I can see arguments on both sides of this, but if Hue rates Trubisky high enough, quarterback trumps everything else.
I think this, or something like it, is possible. I know that Trubisky could be the only franchise candidate in this draft, and that waiting for the awesome next draft class is much, much riskier than drafting Patrick Mahomes at 12 this year.
Were it to play out like this, the Browns don't get Hooker, Allen, or any of the other top guys, but they retain the top pick in the second round this year, where they can definitely draft an elite cornerback, safety/linebacker hybrid, or probably a really good free safety after a trade-down.
They retain the other second round pick, which should yield another starter, and have the additional first round pick in 2018 (giving them FIVE first and second round picks in that draft!)
Of course, (this is just me here), I'm liking Mahomes more by the minute, and if Hue agrees, my hypothetical trade-down turns into a bonanza.
In this case, the Browns get Allen or Hooker 5th, Mahomes at 12, and have 18 and 33 on deck.
For the hell of it, I'll mention that Brad Kaaya just skunked Mahomes and several others in an accuracy contest. He scored 19 (lower is better), and his nearest competition was 26.
You can't assume that Hue Jackson isn't eyeballing this guy, or somebody else nobody else rates high. MKC's assumptions aside, Cody Kessler was a Jackson pick.
Ok but let's bring this full circle: What if something like that 3-way with Seattle and New England happened, and the Browns brought Garopollo down?
And THEN traded down from Myles Garrett? Oh wow! Here we are talking Jimmy G, Hooker or Allen, 18th, 33rd, 52nd etc.? Rebuild OVER!
This would be perfect. Sashi would run out of roster room and start upgrading his lower picks into higher 2018 picks, because he'd have to start cutting good players otherwise!
This is DePodestian as well.
I know, we all fantasize about this stuff, and it rarely happens, but dammit this really could!
I know Seattle would jump for it, and so would the Browns. The key is Lord Insideous, and what he gets out of the deal. As the trade is proposed, for him it's Sherman for Garopollo, period.
Well, Sherman is a stud, but Bill doesn't really need him. It's like the Myles Garrett thing: Bill denies it, but he is a DePodestian himself. His cornerbacks don't suck. Sherman would upgrade his secondary and it's depth, but not by that much.
I think he would try to extort more out of this deal (and won't blink first).
That's why I brought up Josh Gordon. That would do it. Gordon would do what Randy Moss did for him, and take the lid off opposing defenses. HE would make a HUGE difference!
This sucks for me, because I've been defending Gordon all along, and calling him the best wide receiver in the NFL etc. Losing him would really hurt the Browns.
But Josh is not a QUARTERBACK, so......
Seriously, this hypothetical trade has legs; it is actually possible.
Sorry to redundate here, but you need to understand Bill Belichick's jam here: Whether he tenders or franchises Garopollo at the end of 2017, he is looking at committing over 22% of his payroll to quarterbacks.
Let me translate: This is bad. He does not want to do this.
As a non Branch-Bradyan blogging from an undisclosed location I must say this again: The only reason Bill Belichick would not trade Jimmy G now would be that he intends to trade Tom Brady after 2017.
That's what I would do.
But I've never hoped to be wrong this much in my life, or as glad to be so massively outnumbered by smart people, because this trade, or something like it, would be just perfect for my Cleveland Browns.
I desperately cast about for support: There's Coby Brissett, right? Bill drafted him, right? So he can't suck that bad, right?
Maybe Bill actually does believe that Tom Brady is immortal, like everybody else (except me) does!
Yeah...ok yeah I'm crazy that must be it...ok so Bill can't afford 40 mil for quarterbacks and has to trade Jimmy G now. Yeah, that's the ticket!
I can safely say this right now: The Browns top two quarterback targets are Jimmy G and Mitchell P, in that order.
Deeper: Lord Insideous is getting old. He wants to win more Superbowls, and possibly even retire eventually. Even though he is more realistic about Tom Brady's longevity than literally everybody else is, he might just want to win the next two, or even three, Superbowls.
This rationally supports a Garopollo trade! We're still in business! I feel better now.
It's going to be fun on draft day. I predict that the Browns will make at least three trades, one way or another. I predict that one of them will be down from Saint Myles, and that the Browns will draft at least one quarterback.
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