Tuesday, November 5, 2019

The Kareem Hunt Factor: Freddie Kitchens' Life Line if he Takes it.

I'm as disgusted by this loss to the Broncos as any of you people, but am obliged to analyze it objectively:

I'm not a Browns fan as I analyze this, ok?  I am O B J E C T I V E DO YOU UNDERSTAND?

Having said that, the Browns were the more talented team and (duh) should have won.

But believe it or not I advise you not to join the permabashers and their lynch-mob just yet, and here is why:

1: The Hunt factor:

I agree with Terry Pluto that it was dumb to replace Chubb with Hilliard on 3rd and 3.  That is a running down; and an ideal play-action opportunity.  I repeat: DUMB.

NOW, Kareem Hunt can step into Hilliard's role.  Check him out under Reed in KC: Hunt lined up all over the place, including wide.  He's an Ebineezer Bell-type receiver, as well as a terrifying runner.

We couldn't pick on Freddie for replacing Chubb with Hunt on 3rd and 3.

If Freddie continues to run his offense, there will be more 2-back sets with Chubb and Hunt.  Both are proficient in pass-pro (well I think Hunt is), and have the size and muscle to lead block.

Both are (at least) proficient receivers (with Hunt more advanced downfield at this point).

Both are home-run hitters who need to get the ball as often as possible.

I don't worry about who loses snaps to Kareem Hunt, nor should you.  Along with the 2-back, Hunt can start out as the third down back.  He will keep Chubb fresher and healthier.

Most running backs actually prefer some rotation, by the way.  Remember Earl Campbell? Well, they are acutely aware that running backs are the shortest-lived players on the field because of the beatings they take.  While they all want to be the top dog, they also don't mind getting off their feet and catching a breather.

I'll cite an ancient post of mine about this and remind you whippersnappers of Kevin Mack and Earnest Byner in the "Martyball" offense which produced two thousand yard rushers and was nearly impossible to stop.

This is a better combination.  Kevin Mack was very powerful, with an explosive start and nice straight-line speed.  He'd hit the hole in a blink and knock people down like a battering ram.

Byner was frankly undersized.  Not as fast, either.  But Byner just had something inside him that transcended his physical limitations.

He was a much, much better receiver out of the backfield than Mack.  He didn't really have the speed to get outside with the ball, so they had Mack scare the defense about an up-the-gut run, and tossed it to Byner outside (and he tow em up, boy!!!)

Byner was more elusive than Mack, and remarkably tough to take down, too.  He could and did go up the gut effectively, but really shined in the open field.

But the most amazing thing about Earnest Byner was how effective he was as a lead-blocker for the much bigger/stronger Mack.

Ed remembers: Byner would blast safeties his size like they were papier machet, and rock much bigger linebackers too--as often as not hitting more than one defender as he bought Mack space.  Mind over matter; super-tough: that was Earnest Byner.

Anyway Hunt/Chubb (as a 2-back combination) are different, and potentially superior, even in the 2019 NFL:

They are both elite (as in top 5) running backs.  They are both big strong "bell-cows" who get consistent gains as well as make big plays; either can carry a team and play all 3 downs.  Both can go outside or inside, catch passes, and protect the Quarterback.

Mack couldn't catch, and lacked elusiveness.  Byner probably would have broken down if forced to be THE back, and niether were true home-run hitters...both Hunt and Chubb are simply more talented and complete than Mack and Byner.

I believe that both of them can be more effective lead-blockers than any pumped up, ponderous fullback, and certainly much scarier dumpoff threats.

I'm even confident that Freddie Kitchens has already seen this, and intends to use it.

Oh: Also Hunt and Chubb both fit any blocking scheme, but the 2-back is a "big" set mandating a base front 7 for most, and a nickel for a few (like Wilks).  They should both do serious damage in zone-schemes (as Chubb has so far).

One (smart) commenter predicted that with Hunt active, the Browns would load up and steamroll everybody, and wear down every defense, making Mayfield a "game manager".

He's mostly correct:  Any offensive lineman will tell you, it's a lot easier to run-block than to pass-block, and to nail bigger people than smaller people in space, and that zone-blocking is idiot-proof.

...are you still worrying about who loses reps?

Well, a 2-back leaves room for 3 receivers (Tight End Optional).  It's not advisable in 3rd and long, so that's a one-back with 4 other skill-players.

Most of the time, there should be 2 true wide receivers, and slightly less often one tight end.

Beckham is a default WR, and I guess so is Landry, so Callaway (and Higgins/Hilliard/a tight end) lose reps.

Well too bad, ok?  You put your most consistent and dangerous skill players on the field as often as you can, and Kareem Hunt is absolutely one of those.

I think Hunt might save Freddie's bacon and the Browns' season, because (I repeat) I believe that Freddie (if not Monken) will remember how to use two running backs and play physical football.

Does anybody get this: You see Hunt and Chubb in the same huddle and you have to think I or T formation...long story but it makes blitzing (and small fast guys) less viable.  You almost have to run a 4-3 or 3-4 with only 4 real back end guys (ahem--unless you're Wilks).

Now where does Hunt go when the huddle breaks?  If he goes to the slot or outside, who are you putting on him?  If he stays behind or next to Mayfield with Chubb, you stack the box, but both backs can pick up blitzes or become outlet receivers so...are you sending a blitze inside, or stunting, or...?

It's scary.  There might never have been a RB tandem like this ever.

My proposed 2-back offense would obviously make play-action passes lots more effective, setting Mayfield up perfectly.

By the way, I listen to Favre, Miller, Phil Simms, Orlosky, Weiss, etc so you should take my (actually their consensus) analysis of his 2019 issues seiously:

1: Todd Monken came here from Tampa Bay, and Freddie Kitchens deferred to him.  The result was more 7-step shotguns and vertical routes, with spread offenses.

Robinson and Hubbard didn't have tight ends helping them with edge-rushers.  The 7-step depth spread out the offensive line and opened inside gaps.  Combined with the loss of RG Austin Reiter and the neccessity of waiting for routes to develop, Mayfield was in deep shit from the start.

2: Mayfield is under 6'1".  He has to leave the pocket often just to see the field.  Ask Aaron Rodgers.  Ask Russell Wilson.  But the Browns have been pretty stubborn about not being like the Seahawks or Packers.

...and we get to see some color analyst circle open receivers Mayfield "overlooked" (sigh) while standing in the middle of 9 guys who are all at least 3 inches taller and a foot wider than him duh!

"Standing tall"...haha!

3: Baker is pressing.  He's been under so much pressure that he's all but forgotten touch and timing.

He's had to rush the majority of his throws, and his receivers have not achieved separation.  He's now in pure sharpshooter mode, rifling nearly every pass on a rope; into tiny windows.

4: He's spazzing.  He's not methodical anymore.  He rarely had more than 2 seconds for the first 4 games before he got smashed, and...well it's not his fault.

5: Shallower pockets, the 2-TE sets (and chips), crossing patterns and more play-action have helped him out as (I believe) Freddie has overrode Monken more lately, but Mayfield is psyched out now.

6: Defenses got a bead on Mayfield in the offseason, and let up on man coverage in favor of zone.  They've deceived him presnap; showed him one thing and rolled into another specifically aimed at his tendancies.

Receivers often look open in zones, but a DB is lurking behind them, waiting for the QB to crank his arm back.

It's typical for young Quarterbacks, but it's worse here due to the change of scheme and loss of Reiter (and 2 critical coaches who Bob Wiley said had more to do with the turnaround than Kitchens did).

7: Baker Mayfield has always been an underdog, but has never failed like he has in 2019.

He's never had his nose bloodied, or had to get back up like this in his life before.

In my opinion, Baker Mayfield will come back strong.

I mean, look at that surgical precision in his rookie season; all those perfect passes.

A "backup"!?!  If Aaron Rodgers had started as a rookie, there's a good chance that a bunch of cretins would have been saying that about him right about now.

The KEY thing here is PLAY ACTION off a dominating RUNNING GAME Freddie DO YOU UNDERSTAND?

(Oh yeah and passes to Hunt and Chubb...let's remind Mayfield about "touch", right?  Give him some "can't miss"es?)

Lindy Infante pioneered this with Mike and Gregg Pruitt, and Brian Sipe.  (There's another long story).

The main thing is, a smart coach will take as much heat off his quarterback as possible, even if he's awesome.

I expect Freddie Kitchens to do that now (perhaps over Todd Monkens' objections) now that he has Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb.

...oh yeah...double cover OBJ now, chump!  

...is any of this sinking in?








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