Tuesday, November 12, 2019

Browns Should Beat Steelers. I Guarantee this Possibility. Take it to the Bank. For sure Maybe.

Dan LaBartard thinks that the Cleveland Browns are a talented but dumb team.  Joe Thomas and I "get" that, but Dan obviously hasn't seen much of the Denver or Bills games, as the Browns have cut way down on penalties.

That's called "sticking to a narrative".  

Joe Thomas sees some bright spots and promise as I do (yep!  Big Joe must read this blog too!)

Trent Dilfer and Dan Justik are no doubt also secret fans of this literal masterpiece, as they get into more (current) detail about what they think is wrong with the 2019 Freddie Kitchens scheme, but Film Room guy Ellis L Williams at least partially contradicts Freddie's many detractors.

Luckily, you guys have me to sort through and integrate all this, and tell you what to think and how to think it:

1: Dilfer and Justik are right about Play Action.  The Browns used more of that (with the Hunt/Chubb combo) last week, but not enough.

To Dilfer, this is a no-brainer with this Quarterback and these personnel.  The Browns can either hand off or fake on EVERY first down (assuming time isn't running out and they're not too far behind); that's like 29% of the time right there! Then, on second and 6 or less (including a couple inches):

If you add it all up, This team can either run or play-fake off the run at least 66% of the time, and Dilfer/Justik say they should (ps the RPO is play action, as Dilfer points out).

Kirk Cousins is tearing up the NFL this season.  This is substantially because the majority of his passes are off play-action to the terrifying Dalvin Cook (and partly because Cook is one of his favorite targets too).

According to Trent and Dan, Freddie hasn't been exploiting this enough.  Freddie (or Monken) is trying to outsmart enerybody.

2: Trent mentioned this and I will repeat myself again: Baker Mayfield is short, but can throw on the move.  His offensive tackles aren't that good, and the 20 and 21 personnel they'll be running now won't help Robinson or Hubbard out as much as the two-tight end sets he used before Hunt and in 2018.

Why the hell isn't Freddie rolling Mayfield out?  Why is Mayfield 90% in the pocket?

Jeez you guys don't see this stuff: The 2019 Browns zone block a lot, and that not only fits play-action perfectly, but also controlled rollouts!  The defense is clueless about whether it's a pass or run (or whether Mayfield has the ball--he's a great "actor" too btw).

A "rolling pocket" really helps out athletically-overmatched (or outsmarted) offensive linemen...

3: All the same, as Ellis illustrates, Freddie did a great job of maxing out Kareem Hunt (again here's another of my secret fans blush-blush).

The "Mack/Byner" thing is just now beginning to start to dawn on OTMs (*Other Than Me's)...sigh read my last several posts:

Vs the Bills, Kareem Hunt was Earnest Byner, sorta:

Youngsters, Mack never lined up outside of the backfield, and I'm not sure if Byner even lined up in the slot.  

As Ellis shows us, Kareem Hunt was all over the place, and in motion a lot as well.  Even when he was just a decoy, he screwed up this top five NFL defense--and this is Freddie Kitchens who deserves all the credit for exploiting this weapon like he did, ok?

The Ravens' offense is (rightfully) called the biggest challenge for Defenses to figure out in 2019, but the Browns' offense could be kinda similar, if Freddie listens to Dilfer and me, and rolls out more and maxes out play-action:

Come ON, Freddie Kitchens!  You're so close to having an offensive juggernaut like that!  

How can you blitze with Chubb and Hunt back there?  Who covers either of them in the slot or outside?  (PS see Ellis's Film Room: Ellis says that how they lined up vs Hunt in the slot or outside exposed the Bills' coverage scheme to Mayfield presnap).

...Chubb has 2 years left on his contract.  Dorsey has to try to re-sign Hunt long-term. He can secure the Chubb/Hunt offense for 2020; Hunt is a better swiss army knife than Ebineezer Bell, and---

Getting into the analytics weeds here nevermind anyway ok the Stoolers Thursday Night:

See last post the Rams Offensive Line was wiped out.

The Steelers ARE (disgustingly) formidable (especially on defense).  I personally dislike Mike Tomlin (mostly because he endorses dirty players), but you can't argue with what he's accomplished.

...well not just him: GM Kevin Colbert spent his 2020 1st round draft pick to land DB Minkah Fitzpatrick, drafted---nevermind but he just kicked ass again like he always does dammit...

I expect the Browns to beat the Steelers (kinda):

1:  NOBODY has stopped Nick Chubb.

2: Kareem Hunt is a BIG upgrade regardless of where he lines up or what he does.

3: HOPEFULLY Freddie Kitchens will stop outsmarting himself and lean hard on play-action, roll Baker out more, keep it up with the screens (another thing his detractors ignore)...

4: The Steelers' Offense is (dammit) still pretty good, substantially because their Offensive Line is one of the best in football (Big Who? Ebineezer Who? Antonio Who?)

But vs the Bills, the Browns' defense was respectable vs the run, and...well long story:

Mack Wilson blitzed (effectively) a lot, Takitaki played for once and did a fine job, but

5: I repeat (again): Kareem Hunt and the 2-back.  This changes everything, ok?

If Freddie Kitchens maxes this out like I or Dilfer would the Steelers defense is on it's heels for most of the game.

Hunt, Chubb, OBJ, Landry the core skill-group what are you kidding me!?!

The Browns average over 5 yards per carry with this offensive line ok!?!

The Browns should stomp the Steelers, but...

Will Freddie Kitchens keep trying to outsmart everybody?  Will he admit that he should run more, and (duh) run more play-action?

...Is Freddie Kitchens the idjut the lynch-mob says he is?  Obviously, no--if you pay attention, and see how he jumped all over Kareem Hunt and the 20 and 21 sets and motions and lead blocks and---

Don't count Freddie Kitchens out just yet.  

Just sayin






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