I was gone for awhile, but I'm back now:
Listening to Steelers' Cult-leader Pat Kirwan on Antonio Brown Radio, you'd think losing Antonio Brown is no big deal for the Steelers. "They'll be fine! Remember, they won the Superbowl the year after they moved on from Plaxico Burress?"
Err...Brown=Burress now?
Well, rumors of the Steelers' 2019 demise are, in fact, greatly exaggerated, but Pat is also...not objective:
The 21 mil dead money hit they took was 11% of their salary cap. And AB is a PIA, but was still easily one of the three best wide receivers in the NFL, and this loss is an irrefutable downgrade.
The Steelers drafted WR James Washington in the second round in 2018, and he might be pretty good in season two (the Steelers' second round picks all seem to "hit").
The real strength of the Steelers' offense is one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, and this will remain intact. They still have Big Ben, Smith-Schuster, that tight end and those running backs, so that offense will again be among the best in the NFL...
But not as good as it was in 2018, Pat.
Don't you get tired of this? The Ravens "will be fine" because they had the best Defense in 2018, and the Steelers "will be fine" because they had a prolific offense?
The Steelers have issues on defense, and the Ravens have issues on offense. The Steelers haven't been able to fix their secondary issues or establish a pass-rush. Losing Ryan Shazier hurt them badly, and they haven't recovered yet.
The Steelers win high-scoring games because they have to, and Big Ben is 37 years old, and gets hurt, and Pat?
The (very high) third and fifth rounders they got for Brown will help, but they can't afford to do anything significant in free agency because they're down to 17 mil in cap space, and Colbert can't forget about his players who are entering their final contract years, or replacing Big Ben.
Pat Kirwan was a GM himself (New York Jets). I shouldn't have to point all this stuff out to him.
Anyway, the 2019 Steelers won't be "fine", because they're in the same Division as Baker Mayfield and the Cleveland Browns.
A study in contrasts:
The Steelers lost AB. The Browns lost Zeitler, but gained Olivier Vernon, and replace Zeitler with a top second round 2018 Dorsey draft pick. The Steelers also lost TE Jesse James.
The Steelers can't be very active in free agency. The Browns WILL be, and will upgrade significantly with plug-and-play veterans ahead of the draft.
The Browns draft around a half-round higher in each round than the Steelers do (until the third round).
The Steelers need a Shazier-like linebacker, 3-4 passrushers, and back end players. The Browns need defensive tackles, and (just kinda) a linebacker and cornerback.
This draft class favors the Browns' needs over the Steelers' needs. Colbert can do a better job than Dorsey, and still "lose".
The Browns roster is young and ascending. The Steelers' roster is treading water.
John Dorsey has other advantages and potential advantages:
He can trade Duke Johnson, Ogbah, and probably other guys I'm missing, before or after the draft.
He can draft "best available" more than for need. Colbert, lacking veteran free agent options and ascending talent, and stuck near the bottom of each round, will have to target position players, and sometimes bypass better talent at other positions.
Speaking of the Draft, this Browns mock draft by Randy Gurzi didn't suck!
Randy drafts LB Devin Bush at 17 overall. Bush is like Shazier. 'nuff said.
In round 2, he exploits the extraordinary DT depth in this class by taking DT Jerry Tillary out of Notre Dame. Per Randy (and the experts he cites), Tillary was a late bloomer (7 sacks in 2018, along with all the normal DT stats...prior to that, he was shaky).
Hillary isn't a finished product yet, but appears ready to start immediately anyway. He's 6'6", 295, so he'll obviously get bigger, and he has the "length" that John Dorsey said he favors.
At 17 in the third round, it's microbe WR Parris Campbell from some college in Ohio.
In the middle of the third round!?! I'm all-in on that! The Browns need a slot receiver like they need a hole in the head, but this guy definitely upgrades the WR corps, especially if Duke Johnson is dealt and Jarvis Landry is the Z.
This guy gets open, has great hands, and makes big plays. In the first or second round, no thanks, but in the middle of the third? Where do I sign?
Randy drafts TE Kahale Warring and CB Justin Layne in the 3rd and 4th rounds, and an athletic offensive tackle in the 5th...et cetera.
I like all of this. Randy has made great progress since his first mock draft. He's also got a much better (if imperfect) grip on the Browns' real needs.
Admit it, Randy. You read this Blog.
Anyway, in the lower rounds, Randy is pragmatic and looks for unrefined talent with great upside, and zeroes in on positions of need.
In the 7th round, he drafts kicker Matt Gay. That's smart too. Use that last pick to lock up the best kicker available.
Most 7th round picks are released (not even put on practice squads) anyway, and kickers cost the Browns at least three games in 2018.
My peeps are excited by the prospect of stealing C J Mosely from the Ravens. I am, too, but the Ratbirds just let Gramps Suggs go, and must be determined to keep Mosely now (partly because they don't have anybody else worth keeping).
It's still an auction, though, and I think all Dorsey can do is make the Ravens overpay for Mosely.
Anthony Barr or Jordan Hicks are more likely to actually sign up with the Browns.
These other bird-teams have different cap situations and priorities. Hicks has missed time with injuries, and should be the cheapest. (by the way, if you click that link, take a stupid pill first).
Linebacker isn't the "urgent" need the pundits are telling you it is, anyway.
Randy Gurzi points out that new DC Steve Wilks will often use less than three real linebackers. Randy also thinks that the ability to cover opposing tight ends must be a priority for any new linebackers.
........Joe Schobert was one of the best coverage linebackers in the NFL in 2018, and Steve Wilks is a "zone" guy, so...
Ok Randy: I look forward to your next unattributed revelation, as you figure this out without reading THIS.
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