Browns Reality Check: Can They SWEEP the AFC North in 2019, or Will a Kicker or referee screw them up?

I'll kinda miss Darren Fells, who actually turned out to be a pretty good receiver as well as blocker.

He was "THE" blocking tight end, however, and by no means washed up.  Releasing Fells without having acquired a blocking replacement means something.

I haven't done any analysis at all so far, so I'm figuring this out as I write (WARNING:  GENIUS AT WORK)

The notables remaining behind Njoku are Orson Charles and Pharoah Brown (and of course Seth DeValve.

Interestingly, Orson and Seth are kinda similar, as they're both short for tight ends.  Charles showed signs of being at least a solid receiver in 2018, and out-blocked DeValve.

I strongly suspect that Kitchens/Monken intend to use an H-back.  They may not have a traditional fullback at all, but instead use one of these two guys when extra muscle is called for.

An H-Back is a fullback/tight end hybrid...kinda.  An H-Back isn't an in-line blocker like a tight end, but can still chip, or just pass protect like a regular fullback on passes (and of course catch passes themselves--they're bigger and faster than fullbacks, and will do more damage).

H-backs are often in motion when the ball is snapped, and tend to hit defenders from the side (pushing them toward the sideline) and/or go out for passes after the snap.

Pharoah Brown is a more conventional tight end.

Now, former wide receiver DeValve can line up not only in the slot, but outside.  I'm not sure about Charles, but he's good for the slot, anyway.  Njoku can line up anywhere.  Brown--I'm not sure.

We can't know what John Dorsey has would have lined up with pending free agents, if tampering were legal...but based on what is left on this roster at this time:

There will be a lot of "two tight end" personnel groupings, but the second tight end will not be used in-line.

-snap-snap- I know you're bored (I'm boring myself) but stay with me here:

I think what Monken and Kitchen are cooking up (sorry it was too easy) might be semi-revolutionary and brilliant.

I know it's brilliant, because I came up with most of it myself around ten years ago!  (What more proof do you need?)

The real "base defense" for every team in the NFL is some type of nickel.  And I'm not sure, but dime defenses might be used more often than 4-3's or 3-4's too.

Lighter. Faster.  More back end players.  Less press/man, more zone and off-man.  More athletic linebackers, with a priority on coverage skills, see?

Well, Monken and Freddie's recipe (I'm sorry) looks like simply A: Discouraging opposing defenses from using their nickel (real base) defensive personnel, B: badly overmatching those guys...

This is hard to explain...As a DC, you see a DeValve and Njoku head to the huddle.  You're not a robot, so you're still in your nickel, until you see who the running back is.

If it's Duke, you gotta stick with your nickel.  If it's Chubb, you might come down to your nominal base defense.

(I'm leaving out the two-backs and wishbones and diamonds here for simplicity, but note: Freddie will keep using those too).

In reality, no Defensive Coordinator can "solve" this:

1: Duke Johnson is a great receiver, but can also run right up the middle and break tackles and stuff.

2: Chubb is a power-back, but (remember I told you this) will be Todd Gurley in 2019.

3: Seth DeValve (trust me Monken loves him) can line up anywhere:

Seth has been less than stellar as a lead-blocker out of the backfield, and isn't much of an in-line blocker yet, but he can line up anywhere, including near the sideline in the X or Z positions.

3a: Where is Jarvis Landry?

3b: Njoku might line up anywhere too (mainly on the line, but in the slot or outside, as well as where merely human tight ends line up).

Now, if you think Antonio Callaway (slot or outside...or can line up oknevermind) is a "meh" guy, you are an idiot, and he and Landry are two of the players in this group.

You be the enema Defensive Coordinator.  How do you stop this...with Baker Mayfield running it, and Freddie Kitchens calling the plays?

Sorry.  Unfair question.  You can't.  All you can do is put your best players on the field, try to get penetration and inside pressure, and keep your free safety deep (and hope he's adequate).

-snap-snap- stay with me here: You put cornerbacks on Landry and Callaway, (and they will both beat single coverage consistently).

Can you put a cornerback on DeValve or Njoku?  Technically, you can, but with Baker Mayfield at quarterback, that won't work.

Going down the list, they overmatch your strong safety and (by a wide margin) your linebackers too.

You have to run off-man and zone, and try to jump routes or knock balls loose on those guys.

If you have the talent, you can press/man Callaway or Landry, but only if they line up outside.  You can't try that with...

Nevermind--RUNNING the ball will be a big part of this too:

Those of you who listened to me 20 years ago or so know that I like the idea of 250 lb individuals smashing other (preferably smaller) individuals in space at full speed, ideally from theirph left or right (instead of head on).

Anyway, it's just concievable that Monken and Kitchens combined are almost as smart as I am -blush-blush-(believe it or not).

Seriously though, I think the 2019 Browns will list 4 active "tight ends" and zero "fullbacks".

I expect more zone (inside and outside) blocking, more run-pass options, some read-options, and a lot of "heavy" personnel groups with two backs, two tight ends, and even both.

It might just be the most physical spread offense ever.

Finally, at long last, I think that Monkens and Kitchens may have caught up with my humble self (well ok you NEED a Baker Mayfield or Pat Mahomes to pull it off), but:

Mayfield is here.  Ahead of free agency and the draft, the 2019 Browns offense is already going to be a juggernaut.

Laugh at me now but believe me later:  UNTOUCHED, this Browns' offense in 2019 should rank in the top 5-8.  Do you think Mayfield, Callaway, Njoku, Ratley, Willies, Chubb etc will remain static, or regress, or something?

In my father's words: WHAT THE HELL IS THE MATTER WICHOO!?!

The DEFENSE might even be above average!

But John Dorsey is in charge.  He has ten draft picks and lots of money.

Bad news for the rest of the AFC North there's a new Sherriff in town...

Okbye

THIS JUST IN: Mary Kay Cabbott said a bunch of stuff I'd intended to say (before I distracted myself) about the Stoolers.

I will zero in on this immortally invincible and devine Division rival in a future post, but for now, Mary Kay wrote an excellent piece.

...okbye again