Saturday, March 9, 2019

Olivier Vernon, Why the Browns Will Win the AFC North, and More Obvious Stuff

Mary Kay Cabbott wrote a very good article on the ramifications of the Zeitler-Vernon trade.

I hadn't known that Vernon had that bad of a high ankle sprain (recall that Myles Garrett had the same injury).

I've had one of those, people, and believe you me, it takes a long time to fully heal.  I never played football for a living, but I can guarantee you that there's no way Vernon's ankle was 100% when he came back (after 5 weeks).

His ankle was almost certainly braced and heavily taped (partially immobilized).  The last six games of his 2018 season likely reflects most accurately just how good this guy is.

Olivier Vernon fits Dorsey's 4-3 Defensive End profile (though not physically)...

The NFL game is evolving:  Run/pass options, scrambling quarterbacks, and quicker, shorter passes.  If you're still trying to get your defensive ends around behind the offensive tackles, you're going to get gashed, repeatedly.

From the start, John Dorsey's free agent and drafted defensive ends are good against the run as well as the pass, and shrimps need not apply--no matter how fast they are.

Sure, Von Miller and other EDGE guys are still getting a lot of sacks, but they are stunting inside and up the gut more often, and they're getting some freebies as quarterbacks flee penetrating defensive tackles as well.  This includes Myles Garrett.

Mary Kay is right that Ogbah is probably "available" for the right price, but he's about equally as likely to stick around.

As Dorsey said, Gregg Williams used Ogbah inside a lot in 2018, and he probably never fully recovered from his own early-season injury.  Dorsey didn't draft him, but he fits Dorsey's profile perfectly.

...well it is getting crowded at DE now, and Dorsey drafted one and signed one, so...(Dorsey holding up his cellphone).

I'm much more excited about Olivier Vernon than I was yesterday.  He had his ten-sack season as a Defensive End.  As a linebacker, he may only have rushed the passer 50% of the time (wild guess, but probably 66% tops).

Olivier Vernon, at 6'2", 261(?) lbs doesn't have ideal length, bulk, explosion or speed for a defensive end, but he's freakishly strong and maxes out his leverage advantage.

Unlike Ogbah, he's much different from Myles Garrett, so Steve Wilks can move the two around to find the best matchups for each.

Vernon's experience as a (actually pretty good) linebacker means he can still stand up or drop to mess up the "pass" part of Run-Pass Options.

Chris Smith and Chad Thomas are more like Garrett (and Ogbah).

Wait! A couple weeks ago John Dorsey mentioned "length" as one of the things he wanted in defensive linemen!  Vernon is 6'2"!  Oh no oh no he's going insane!

Nah.  Vernon has proven himself.  John Dorsey will take the short guy over the tall guy if he's better than the tall guy.  (We used to call that common sense, back in the day.)

And Steve Wilks can move Vernon around and change his fronts with him.

Elliott Kennel wrote a great article on the whole alleged (probably fabricated) OBJ trade offer Soap Opera.

Elliott zeroes in on how OBJ is more trouble than he's worth, and this fact (of which I had no idea):

Even in a trade, OBJ's dead money would cost the Giants a fortune.

I love this writer: "Because they're insane, the Giants think OBJ is worth a first round pick--" (I paraphrased).

No doubt Elliott was as irked as I was at the almost certainly fictional report of Gettleman laughing at the notion that Zeitler, Ogbah, and another player (probably Duke) could come anywhere near OBJ's value.

...and OBJ's contract is a case study in how NOT to structure a deal.  It's loaded with guaranteed moneys on the back end! It makes a trade very difficult, and just cutting the player far too expensive.

OBJ OWNS the Giants!!!  Very, very, very DUMB.  Including the Mitchell Schwartze release, find me a move Sashi Brown made that was in that dumbass zip code--I dare ya!

Elliott Kennel, you da man!

Nobody should be surprised that Darren Fells (or anybody else over 30...and Duke...and Ogbah) is in John Dorsey's show room window.

You people never seem to get the difference between being "open for business" and trying to trade players.

In most cases, Dorsey is quite willing to stick with any of these players into 2019 if nobody offers enough for them.

Skyler Carlin predicts that the Browns will win the AFC North in 2019.  Nothing new here.  Skyler cites all the obvious stuff I have, repeatedly...what the hell I'll repeat it some more, since a lot of people still don't get it:

The guys on NFL Radio worship the Steelers almost as much as they do the Patriots.  "They'll be fine".

No, they won't!  Roethsenberger is 75 in quarterback years, they still haven't fixed their secondary (or replaced Shazier), and if you say "next man up" in re Antonio Brown I wish I could punch you in the face.

And I bet some of those guys will pick the Ravens to win the Division instead, because they had the best defense in the NFL in 2018 and Lamar Jackson is a freak, and of course Harbaugh is a genius (no sarcasm intended.)

Will Suggs be back (as what he was)? Their geezer stud free safety is already gone, and they're trying to keep Brown, Mosely, Crabtree, Max Williams, and:

Lamar Jackson is no Baker Mayfield.  

The Bengals...well everybody else has that already, so I'll skip it:

In 2019, Lamar Jackson will leap tall buildings with single bounds (and might even not get hurt).  But Baker Mayfield will throw for a ton more yardage and touchdowns and third down conversions and big plays and...

Big Ben will kick ass, despite the loss of AB (the Steelers do have serious young depth at WR).  But can he stay healthy?  And no...he won't be shrugging off tacklers vs the Browns in 2019.  And his running backs won't run all over this defense either.

*I am assuming that John Dorsey will upgrade DT and linebacker significantly, and understand that Wilks's zone-oriented defensive scheme is harder on the run*

The Browns are still the youngest team in this Division, and in general can be expected to improve the most talent-wise (DUUUHHH).

If you think what Freddie Kitchens did was a fluke, or that opposing DC's will "figure him out", you don't grok football.  If you think they'll "figure out" and stifle Baker Mayfield, you're just plain dumb.  If you don't admit that the Cleveland Browns are the most talented team in the AFC North, you need your head examined.

I have had some fun, freindly debates with Ravens and Steelers fans (the Bengals fans are too negative):

Who is the best quarterback in the Division?

The Steelers fans say it's Big Ben, and I can't blame them.  That guy might be a Hall of Famer.  BUT, these fans aren't sure that he'll be as good in 2019 as he was in 2018, and are even less confident that he won't miss time with injuries.

NOBODY says the best AFC North quarterback is a Bengal or a Raven.

The Ravens fans think they have the best Head Coach, but admit that Freddie Kitchens and his new staff are frightening.

When I point at these guys and say "buckle up--the Browns got a quarterback now and you guys are in trouble!", they take me seriously.  No eye-rolls, or indulgent smiles.

They fear Mayfield, Chubb, Njoku, and DORSEY.

The Browns will win the AFC North in 2019.

I HAVE SPOKEN.




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