Draftable players who may actually offer value to the 2019 Browns at pick 17 (in no particular order):
Defensive Tackles: Defensive Ends:
1: Quinnen Williams. 1: Bosa
2: Ed Oliver. 2: Josh Allen
3: Christian Wilkins. 3: Clelin Farrell
4: Rashan Gary. 4: Montez Sweat
Linebackers: Other:
1: Devin White. D K Metcalf
2: Devin Bush
Guys who should help some of these players drop closer to 17:
1: Kyler Murray
2: Baker Murray
3: Jachai Polite
4: T J Hockenson
Other possibles: Greedy Williams, Dwayne Haskins, Jonah Williams.
Naturally, there are tons of variables, but with these 18 guys, it looks likely that one of the top ten targets on this list should make it to 17.
Naturally, we can't know how John Dorsey rates and ranks these players. Who the hell (besides Waittilnextyear) saw the Denzel Ward pick coming?
Injured DT Jeffery Simmons could sneak in here somewhere, but I kinda doubt it, given the "ready to play" depth at that position.
We can find clues to Dorsey's process, as he has repeatedly cited analytical data--(something a lot of people still don't get.)
While John Dorsey has proven himself a top evaluator, he will listen to Paul DePodesta.
So here are a few things he'll have to consider:
D K Metcalf was this year's version of Saquon Barkley, except for that 7.38 3-cone drill, which was really bad.
The 3-cone tests change-of-direction, agility, and balance. It's very important for Defensive backs and wide receivers (even moreso than for running backs).
A lot of fans want to ignore that lousy three-cone, as if the other workouts counterbalanced it, but it doesn't work that way.
People have compared Metcalf to David Boston, but I have another one for you: Terrelle Pryor.
Metcalf has freaky straight-line speed and explosion, and outclassed college defensive backs on vertical routes and comebacks, but he may not be a complete wide receiver.
As we learned from Jake Burns, the route concepts Monken likes to run require full-spectrum receivers, as there are a lot of in-cuts and digs underneath soft or umbrella coverages.
More generally, defenses quickly figure out if a guy lacks "shake", and adjust their coverage to force him to break in or outside, and (importantly) their more agile defensive backs can beat them to the punch unless the pass is absolutely perfect--and even then knock or pry it loose.
Montez Sweat took a huge jump up the EDGE board with his amazing 4.41 40 (at 6'6", 266 lbs😮!)
I guess Nick Nick Bosa will remain all there is and there aint no more no matter what, but wow...just...wow.
It's too bad that niether of these guys will make it to 17.
What's that? Why don't I have Polite on the top list? Because he's not a defensive END, and the Browns already have Genard Avery.
Chris Trapasso begs to differ with the Madding Crowd on the current crop of draftable linebackers, as (at least prior to these workouts), he ranked Ben Burr-Kirvin the highest, even though he's really more like a slightly oversized strong safety.
Chris is in the micro-minority here, and Burr-Kirvin shouldn't be under consideration at 17th overall--but Trapasso made a couple good points:
Chris would prefer smaller, quicker linebackers in the modern NFL, as there is a premium on range and coverage skills.
Scouting reports on Burr-Kirvin are mixed, but I kinda think Trapasso and a certain other guy are more fair and accurate:
The guy has great instincts, beats big lumbering blockers to their spots (and eludes them), can shed blocks when he can't do that, and might still be there in the second round.
Daniel Jeremiah has some comments on front seven guys after combine day 3, and likes Burr-Kirvin a lot himself.
Jake Burns doesn't think the Browns will take a linebacker in the first round, and lists the veteran free agent linebackers he thinks John Dorsey will be chasing shortly.
Eagle Jordan Hicks is Jake's top guy, and Dorsey has a shot at him. The Browns are coming back, have openings at linebacker, and can outbid everybody.
But this is what John Dorsey really meant when he said it wasn't time to go nuts overpaying free agents:
Pat Kirwan or Gil Brandt will tell you this: A smart GM sets the maximum price he will pay for a player, and when somebody else goes crazy and pays more, lets that team win.
I remember the whole RGIII thing. Mike Holmgren barely lost a bidding war to move up and draft Robert Griffin III.
Nearly every other fan in Cleveland was bashing Holmgren for not offering even more. I was furious that he offered as much as he had!!!
I can't recall all of what the Redskins surrendered, but think it started with three first round draft picks, included at least one second rounder, and more picks as well.
...and you people bashed Holmgren for not topping that offer? Wow. I'd give that up for Superman (I mean the guy from Krypton), but no other mere human being...you kidding me?
And wow--amazing--the Redskins haven't been very good! Hmmm....
But I digress: C J Mosely and Anthony Barr close out his top tier, but Mosely might get franchise tagged. Barr might work out.
Jake's other guys have warts or are 30, but could be excellent (and affordable) "band aids" who can still kick ass in 2019.
And I concur with Jake: Dorsey should sign at least one (or two) good veteran linebackers prior to the draft...and probably release Jamie Collins, who probably won't accept a pay-cut.
Jake (or somebody else) suggested that the Steve Wilks defense might help Christian Kirksey not suck anymore. That's quite possible, since Kirksey was better before Gregg Williams got here.
I hope so, because he's a leader and a terrific guy. And it goes without saying that he tackles better than Joe Schobert or Jamie Collins...
By the way, I expect Schobert to improve in that department. He has no relationship with Steve Wilks, and he doesn't cost a lot of money.
Wilks doesn't require a "Field General" like Gregg Williams did, and if Joe Schobert keeps missing tackles, he'll find himself relegated to coverage on passing downs.
And he knows it. If I could, I'd bet on Joe Schobert ranking in the top half in missed tackles in 2019.
I have to get back to the secret weapon Steve Wilks has inheritted: Genard Avery:
My regulars can skip this redundantly repetitive paragraph, but this 6', 255 lb powerlifting champ is the quickest and fastest Browns' linebacker (including Jamie Collins), and can out-quick and out-sprint most of the guys he outweighs by 15 lbs. He is a passrusher (inside or outside), but he's also a real 4-3 linebacker who can do everything else required of him.
(Sorry for the extra-long paragraph there, but I'm a man of my word.)
Here's a painful update from Mary Kay Cabbott:
"Rumors" or "buzz" about other teams' interest in Duke Johnson may well originate from guys like me, but it's probably valid.
Mary Kay thinks that John Dorsey's decision to trade (or not to trade) Duke depends on the length of Kareem Hunt's suspension.
WRONG. Dontrell Hilliard is similar to Duke Johnson, except taller, and inevitably bigger.
Duke had to be frustrated at his lack of opportunities last season, but we can't really fault Freddie Kitchens for that, considering how effective Nick Chubb was, and how effective Freddie's two-tight end offenses were.
Kareem Hunt will be suspended for a MINIMUM of eight games, and possibly for the entire season, but it doesn't matter that much to Duke Johnson, who is a whole different kind of player.
Hunt is like Chubb. Not like Duke (and Hilliard). Is any of this sinking in yet? Nor is a "third down back" mandatory in 2019! Who is Todd Gurley's replacement on third down WAKE UP!
If somebody offers John Dorsey a third round pick (or more) for Duke Johnson, he's probably gone.
Nothing personal. In fact, Duke Johnson does deserve a better opportunity than Kitchens and Monken can give him in the schemes they'll be running here.
In fact, a month ago, Peter Smith mocked Iowa TE T J Hockenson to the Browns at 17th overall, and I got it.
I get it more now that my trusted experts (and John Dorsey himself) have knocked David Njoku for his run-blocking (or lack thereof).
Hockenson is a real tight end who takes his blocking seriously.
As-is, Darren Fells is here to block, but he's 33 and (per PFF) didn't block very well in 2018.
Hockenson would kick Fells to third string (or the curb), because he's a blocker and a weapon.
We know Freddie liked two tight ends, but you people might not know yet that so might Monken.
It doesn't matter who Monken's four receivers are; two of them can be tight ends no problem! (No honest! I swear! Only one outside deep threat required!)
I really hope that John Dorsey can land at least one veteran free agent stud defensive lineman ahead of the draft, because Hockenson could be there at 17.
In this offseason, Dorsey can upgrade the front seven on defense through free agency and the middle/late rounds...that's money in the bank.
You people don't get some of this, however--especially those of you proclaiming an urgent need for a Julio Jones-like "big target" for possibly the most accurate quarterback in the NFL:
Freddie Kitchens used "big people" a lot in 2018 (ie extra tight ends and/or running backs).
New Offensive Coordinator Todd Monken will NOT change this, and the two coach's offensive systems do NOT contradict eachother, provided the tight ends and running backs are effective receivers out of the slot.
And you people who think this extremely accurate quarterback needs a "big target" crutch-receiver need to contemplate a Njoku and a Hockenson running around out there intermediate or deep, but wait: think HARDER:
Who on this planet can (legally) prevent either of these guys from catching a pinpoint pass? Which TWO guys?
Peter Smith is a freaking genius.
You people need to stay with me a tad longer:
The two tight ends in 2018 helped both offensive tackles out in pass protection with chip-blocks, and that barely inhibited their effectiveness as receivers (this is an "analytics" thing...sorry to break it to you so bluntly).
In terms of run-blocking, the tight ends sealed the edges, cut off backside pursuit, and knocked out linebackers and little guys downfield.
I still think Seth DeValve is massively underrated, but he's probably never going to be much of an in-line blocker. He's too short, period.
Anyway, you people need to imagine what Baker Mayfield and Nick Chubb could do with Njoku and Hockenson blocking and hollering "hit me I'm open!"
I'm kind of assuming that Njoku will react as expected to John Dorsey's very public challenge to start BLOCKING, because Njoku has the tools to do that.
You people need to update your databases:
Long story short: The "arms race" in the NFL has set up two tight end and two running back offenses for success, and (in general) smashmouth running is going to work.
You people don't look ahead, because most of you are Memorex Morons. Everybody copies the Patriots, and it works for one season, but one season later, well...there the Pats are again, a step ahead, and in the Superbowl.
...and everybody copies them again. And again. And again.
I think the Browns might have got lucky with Freddie Kitchens. Freddie went nuts with all this exotic stuff he pulled in 2018, but in doing this, he proved to me that he is NOT a copycat, and IS creative and original.
It would be a huge leap to compare Freddie Kitchens to Bill Bellichick at this point, but I gotta say:
So far, so good!
Okbye.
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