I'm a big Jake Burns fan, and try not to miss any of his "Film Room" articles. In this one, he's come up with seven Day Three (projected) players who could probably help the Browns.
As Jake reminds us, Genard Avery and Antonio Callaway were both Day 3 picks by John Dorsey last season, so this GM has a decent chance at coming up with a couple winners.
In general, the best players in the lower rounds are the best players. They've been injured, played for small schools, bloomed late, lack refinement, got in trouble--whatever; but they have the physical tools to play in the NFL.
Antonio Callaway got in trouble and has limited experience. I can't explain Avery, but (undrafted) Desmond Harrison was a very raw physical freak (who was not READY to start Y E T in 2018).
Let's see Jake's 7 dudes:
SS Khari Willis can't be trusted in deep coverage (for now), but Jake says he fits Steve Wilk's preferred scheme, in which he'd play zone and cover tight ends and bigger slot guys.
(I have to defer to Jake on the Derrick Kindred issue; if Jake says he can't cover well, then I stand corrected).
Jake says this guy reads plays really well and gets in the right place. He's also got nice speed and explosion and (like Kindred) is very tough on the run.
It doesn't sound like Willis would be a project, either: He could probably see some snaps as a rookie, and upgrade overall coverage.
CB Sean Bunting is a tall corner (with nice speed and athleticism who Jake likes specifically for how he would fit in Wilks's scheme.
Bunting plays every type of coverage well, but needs to improve in run-support. He's not ready to start (especially over the highly rated Rodney Mitchellfield), but should upgrade special teams and contribute situationally as a "matchup" guy (he's much taller than every other corner on the current roster).
Linebacker Cole Holcomb is a little over 6'1" and 233 lbs. Jake analyzes his tape (including the East-West Shrine Game/practices) expertly, and says he needs to work on his recognition, as he gets fooled sometimes.
He'd be an instant special teams star, and probably a situational player early-on.
But I included that last link on purpose, as Holcomb is THE strongest player, pound-for-pound, in the UNC. He would instantly challenge Nick Chubb in the weight room.
I deduce here that Holcomb is all pumped up with actual muscles, and has a great work ethic.
Jake says that he played MIKE, but other scouts say that he started all 13 games in 2016 at outside linebacker (once in a great while I catch Jake overlooking something haha).
Jake isn't sure that Holcomb can play SAM, but likes him at WIL or in the middle. But I think Jake missed those weightlifting numbers too: He can play SAM, alright!
DT Cortez Broughton is really impressive, at least on-tape vs lower-level competition. Jake got one tape in which he rushed from a wide-nine DE slot and got the sack in (I think) under two seconds.
Jake says he's raw, and doesn't use his hands well, but Jake seems to think he could help as a rotational player quickly.
Remember how incredibly deep this DT class is: Most likely in 2018 or 2020, Cortez Broughton might be a third round pick or higher.
OT Chuma Edoga sounds good (that low) as well. Jake likes him a lot as a pass-protector and zone-blocker (including at the Senior Bowl, where he faced some elite competition).
There are way too many Offensive linemen on the roster already, and I still think Des Harrison has been "interred" prematurely, but this guy is talented, and a practice squad candidate.
Edoga played Right Tackle, but Jake describes a guy with the physical talent to play on the left side.
Jake is da man!
Rufio's film room offers a glimpse of one element of Steve Wilks' defense (based on one play from his Cardinals in 2018).
I feel a ton smarter now. I had not previously understood how the "Fire Zone" blitze worked as well as I had thought.
With Avery, Garrett, Kindred, and Vernon (or Ogbah, for that matter) Wilks can absolutely pull this crap any time he wants.
The tape shows only three down linemen, but a linebacker is standing up just outside the left tackle, unmistakeably in a passrush stance. This could be Avery, Vernon, or Ogbah---and it's really a four-man front if you can skip the labels.
The play is very hard for the running back and offensive line to read or anticipate. The standup edge-rusher and the linebacker showing blitze inside both back up into coverage, and that linebacker goes right to where the "hot read" slot guy is going (with the Free Safety on top)...
Nevermind just click the link if you have Browns OCD like I do.
I wouldn't expect a whole lot of blitzes from Wilkins in 2019, though: He didn't have a Defensive Line like this in Arizona, so he had to "manufacture" pressure at times.
Nice change-up, though!
I can't find the article that said that Austin Corbett's transition to right guard would be more difficult that most of us expect, but it's a legit issue:
Moving from left tackle to left guard isn't hard, but moving from left to right of center (or vice-versa) is very hard, as Goeffery Schwartze and LeCharles Bentley tell us.
Everything is "left-handed", so to speak (if you the reader are left-handed just substitute right-handed).
Intellectually, you "get it" instantly, but your body does not. Your instincts all tell you to do the exact wrong thing.
Schwartze did say that "some guys" could manage the switch more easily than others, but did not include himself as one of those (and I really respect his honesty).
Fortunately, Corbett will have the entire offseason and preseason to re-map his entrenched neural pathways, but there will be problems at Right Guard, and Zeitler will be missed, at least early-on.
Salary cap-wise, the Browns will carry around 34.5 mil into 2020 with the rollover as-is, but (unless I'm missing something---which I could be), this is before they release at least four offensive linemen (including two newly-signed free agents), and (nothing personal) DE's Zettel and Smith...and a whole bunch of other guys.
Dorsey has overloaded some positions with second and third-tier veteran free agents, and the majority of those new players will not make it through preseason.
Any "dead" money lost in 2019 is irrelevant in 2020...then there's the "inflation" factor: the cap will be raised next season (by at least 5%).
Rumors of Beckham demanding an Antonio Brown salary are premature, unless he's prepared to hold out for it. And if he does, Dorsey should call his bluff.
OBJ won't be to Mayfield's Browns what he was to Manning's Giants. He should get over 1,000 yards, but so should Landry, and maybe Njoku too.
Holding out now, with his currently really good contract, on the eve of the trade, would be unwise.
The 2019 Browns can win the AFC North without OBJ. Dorsey would call his bluff. He probably told Rosenhaus that before the trade.
I'm not the one poisoning the well here: Why do you people insist on stirring up trouble? Jeez OBJ just signed his lucrative new contract, and already you think he's going to gouge for more because the Raiders bribed Antonio Brown?
OBJ is immature and emotional, but he's not a mercenary asshole like Antonio Brown.
Drew Rosenhaus can be an SOB, but he has other clients, and 31 other GMs to deal with. He's smart enough not to pick this fight...I hope.
OBJ should play out his contract, as is.
Stepping into my Time Machine here, I can tell you that Baker Mayfield is like Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Big Ben, Peyton Manning, Rivers, etc:
Baker will "distribute" his passes liberally to any who are open, deepest. He will WIN, and OBJ will share in that; indeed be a big part of it (when he's not injured, as he has been a lot, over the last two seasons)... ..........
Anyway OBJ should be ok with that, and somehow manage to scrape by financially.
...poor guy...
This Jared Mueller guy (do NOT click this link unless you have a half hour to burn) says that John Dorsey should go for all the marbles right now, even if it burns up all his cap space.
The guy is kinda smart, but also kinda not.
Jared seems oblivious to how talented the current roster already is. It's sufficiently talented (and coached) to be the consensus favorites to win the AFC North.
While Dorsey has upgraded this roster a lot this offseason, the main reason for all this optimism from Jared et al is one Baker Mayfield.
Baker enters his second season after 13.5 games of a rookie season under two Coaching regimes.
Let's not spazz out here, Jared! Why are you in panic-mode here!?!
AHEAD of the 2019 draft, PFF, Numberfire, and everybody else recognizes the Browns as a top-five most talented team in the NFL.
WHY, Jared, do you think that the Browns should "sell out" to buy a Superbowl in 2019?
Jared is not a dumbass, but he is a bit of a spazz:
The fact that until now the Browns have sucked is irrelevent. Your frustration and impatience are irrelevent. Your emotions are irrelevent.
You're also kinda delusional, Jared: You think Dorsey can buy a Lombardi trophy with more free agents?
That NEVER works!!!
And WTF you'd trash the future for the chance to win a Superbowl in 2019 (read: "and then collapse").
Jared, take a pill. The 2019 Browns are expected to win the AFC North this season, and a top five candidate to win the Superbowl.
They STILL have a generally young and emerging roster...why are you spazzing out?Where does this panic come from?
I think Jared is superstitious, or perhaps has Stockholm Syndrome. He expects Mayfield, Kitchens, Wilks and company to become losers or something.
Irrational.
Jared: Lord Insideous (Belichick) has rote havoc over the NFL for over a decade with a LOT less talent than that on the current Browns' roster.
With all due respect, you, sir, are a spazz.
I HAVE SPOKEN
Sunday, March 31, 2019
Saturday, March 30, 2019
Browns Number One Need: DEfensive Tackle. Sorry Too Obvious Duh
A lot of people are getting dumb and dumber about the Browns second round pick, but Tony Grossi isn't one of them.
Tony lists two excellent safeties who should still be there at 49th overall: Jonathan Abram and Amani Hooker.
Many of you want to replace Terrence Mitchell for some reason...is a broken forearm now an indication that one of PFF's highest rated cornerbacks is injury-prone or something?
A versatile DB who covers well makes a lot more sense in a Wilks 3-deep defense, and both Hooker and Abram look like great deals at 49th overall.
Not that there isn't room for a third outstanding pure cornerback, or anything.
Or a rotational Defensive Tackle. As Peter Smith tells us, the 2019 Browns seem to have Defensive End covered in depth.
Like yours truly, he reminds us that Ogbah was playing hurt (and often inside) through 2018. If you've never had a high ankle sprain, you need to trust me: it takes a very long time to heal, and the ankle has to be immobilized with a couple pounds of tape.
Pete and I would like to see what this player can do playing on two legs--and the implied urgency to trade him makes no sense.
Genard Avery is certainly a factor coming off the edge. He needs to stand up, but that's not a big deal; he does the same job.
Peter doesn't know if Avery will play SAM too (he can actually play WIL as well, Pete), but certainly on passing downs he can rush the passer, and spell either Garrett or Vernon.
With these four players, if Ogbah returns to the player he was prior to Gregg Williams' tenure and his injuries, look really solid and deep.
Smith and Thomas are good players too, but the numbers indicate that from among them and Ogbah, at least one will be a GMF.
Peter finds no DT depth behind Richardson and Ogunjobi, as the other guys have failed to impress. Those guys take a lot of abuse, and depth there might actually be the biggest hole on the roster.
Dorsey, as he himself says, has options at safety, including converting Carey or another cornerback (*You know that he talked to Steve Wilks and his assistants first, right?*) to safety.
...and zzinnggg! Well, it didn't go over my head! Carey and company are not Strong Safety types!!! It sounds to perceptive ears like Wilks doesn't plan on using a conventional strong safety.
Now Freddie Kitchens chimed in with his comments on using linebackers in coverage, anda few one of us finds clues to the defensive scheme that Steve Wilks plans to run here, and on this team, in 2019.
I've been trying to tell you all along that Wilks prefers ZONES and off-man coverages, but it's fallen on deaf (or dumb) ears...but I digress:
Defensive Tackle is a bigger need than safety, and the timing couldn't be better.
As it turns out, Defensive Tackle is exceptionally deep in this class (and they have an outside shot at Jeffery Simmons), and safety is much deeper than I had expected too. (Good cornerback depth, as well).
The Browns are showing interest in Homie DT Dremont Jones, who could make it to 49 as well.
I have to apologize for repeating myself here, but part of what Greg Robinson's one year contract did was buy time for Desmond Harrison to grow into his freaky physical talent, and I doubt that John Dorsey feels he needs to replace Harrison with a less talented rookie.
Does that make sense? Anybody home?
I don't have to be "bold" to predict that John Dorsey will NOT draft an offensive tackle before the 4th round, and that both of his top two picks will be defensive players.
I hereby predict that Dorsey will draft a Defensive Tackle in the 2nd or 3rd round, and that the other player will be a linebacker or defensive back.
Dorsey won't need to "reach" for his (real) positions of need, and can immediately increase the Browns 2019 Superbowl chances with these two draft picks.
Say it's just Dremont Jones at 49. Well, Dremont is really a lunchpail guy, but he's ready to play in the NFL as a rotational DT. He's not as talented as some of the other guys, but he's accomplished, smart, and ready to go.
The third round player is not expected to start immediately either, but will play a lot as a role or rotational player (to upgrade coverage somehow).
These two defensive players will be immediately important, as the Browns are getting all up in the Steelers' grill in 2019.
Big Ben is still Big Ben, that's still one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, and they'll still be able to outscore most teams.
They'll probably have an upgraded defense when the dust settles, too; certainly they've added a really good run-and-hit veteran linebacker in free agency, and historically draft well.
...what? Ray-what? OH! Somebody is reminding me that the Ravens won the AFC North last year.
Big deal. They just lost three linebackers, and their number one receiver is a little slot guy they got from Dallas.
Their quarterback is only a semi-quarterback, and Harbaugh will have to run a gimmicky offense to make him effective.
That third defensive tackle will be critical for the Browns, as the Ratbirds signed Melvin Ingram, and can steamroll defenses on the ground.
Wilks wants those four down linemen (or three and Genard Avery) on the field all the time, partly to smother the run, while his other seven guys are in coverage.
Lamar Jackson won't crack that code as a passer (just the facts man), and the fast, converging back seven will slow down that running game (including Jackson himself), and get turnovers too.
Gimmicks or no, a one-dimensional offense can be stifled.
The Ravens also want to tell you that losing three linebackers (including Suggs and Mosely) doesn't matter (pay no attention to the man behind the curtain), but this matters in the real world.
Baker Mayfield beat them in game one and racked up 24 points on them in the season finale.
NOW he has OBJ, and the Ravens need three linebackers! NOW, Richardson and Vernon will be joining Garrett and Ogunjobi in checking into Lamar and Melvin's business.
It's a mismatch. The Browns will sweep the Ravens in 2019. You can keep arguing with me, perhaps saying "they're still the Browns" or whatever, but my team is too much better than your team for yours to beat mine.
Anyway back to the REAL threat in the AFC North:
The Steelers are rightfully the underdogs, but under Mike Tomlin win when they're supposed to lose (and lose when they're supposed to win), so there's a scary factoid for you.
Here's the deal with this "they're still the Browns" stuporstition:
Freddie Kitchens and Baker Mayfield don't "choke". They are technically "Browns" now, but didn't get taken over by pod-people at the door.
The Browns have been "the Browns" for nearly two decades because (since Tim Couch, whose injuries destroyed him), they never found their franchise quarterback.
Now they have one. He tore up the league with what he had last season, and Dorsey just brought him OBJ.
I have a lot of fun with Steelers (and to a lesser degree) Ravens fans. A lot of them seem to dislike their respective Head Coaches.
With the Steelers, I get that. But the Ravens fans disliking Harbaugh? ...nevermind.
Anyway, they admit that they are afraid of the Browns...but more precisely of Baker Mayfield.
Stick your "still the Browns" where the sun don't shine.
Slow news day...oh!
Another excellent writer (maybe Peter Smith again) anticipated some new developments with how Olivier Vernon and Myles Garrett would be used.
Garrett is bigger and taller, while Vernon is more of a linebacker (6'2", 268 lbs). But Garrett has already been used (extensively) at DT, and Vernon was a 3-4 OLB.
New Defensive Coordinator Steve Wilks can move these two guys all over the place in search of ideal mismatches.
Myles Garrett (entering his third season) can line up outside a RIGHT tackle, and Vernon can line up almost anywhere (with his hand in the dirt, or standing up).
When you toss in Genard Avery, this can be a an unpredictable, confusing, and adaptable front four (or five, really).
In 2018, opposing Offensive Lines pretty much knew where Garrett would be (including between the left guard and tackle).
In 2019, the addition of Vernon offers Steve Wilks a great opportunity to really screw up enema blocking schemes by moving both of these guys (and Avery) around.
They're zeroing in on Myles Garrett, of course, but they have to adjust protections to wherever he is, and can't help anybody with Vernon (wherever the hell he might show up) or Avery.
Pick your poison. What a nasty "edge"/passrush combo we got here *remember Ogbah was an outside linebacker under Mike Pettine, and played inside a lot under Williams, and on both edges?*
Peter Smith is on the money: First and foremost, Dorsey needs that third rotational DT to anchor (and exploit) that (into the fourth quarter).
...and that's just the defense!
Tony lists two excellent safeties who should still be there at 49th overall: Jonathan Abram and Amani Hooker.
Many of you want to replace Terrence Mitchell for some reason...is a broken forearm now an indication that one of PFF's highest rated cornerbacks is injury-prone or something?
A versatile DB who covers well makes a lot more sense in a Wilks 3-deep defense, and both Hooker and Abram look like great deals at 49th overall.
Not that there isn't room for a third outstanding pure cornerback, or anything.
Or a rotational Defensive Tackle. As Peter Smith tells us, the 2019 Browns seem to have Defensive End covered in depth.
Like yours truly, he reminds us that Ogbah was playing hurt (and often inside) through 2018. If you've never had a high ankle sprain, you need to trust me: it takes a very long time to heal, and the ankle has to be immobilized with a couple pounds of tape.
Pete and I would like to see what this player can do playing on two legs--and the implied urgency to trade him makes no sense.
Genard Avery is certainly a factor coming off the edge. He needs to stand up, but that's not a big deal; he does the same job.
Peter doesn't know if Avery will play SAM too (he can actually play WIL as well, Pete), but certainly on passing downs he can rush the passer, and spell either Garrett or Vernon.
With these four players, if Ogbah returns to the player he was prior to Gregg Williams' tenure and his injuries, look really solid and deep.
Smith and Thomas are good players too, but the numbers indicate that from among them and Ogbah, at least one will be a GMF.
Peter finds no DT depth behind Richardson and Ogunjobi, as the other guys have failed to impress. Those guys take a lot of abuse, and depth there might actually be the biggest hole on the roster.
Dorsey, as he himself says, has options at safety, including converting Carey or another cornerback (*You know that he talked to Steve Wilks and his assistants first, right?*) to safety.
...and zzinnggg! Well, it didn't go over my head! Carey and company are not Strong Safety types!!! It sounds to perceptive ears like Wilks doesn't plan on using a conventional strong safety.
Now Freddie Kitchens chimed in with his comments on using linebackers in coverage, and
I've been trying to tell you all along that Wilks prefers ZONES and off-man coverages, but it's fallen on deaf (or dumb) ears...but I digress:
Defensive Tackle is a bigger need than safety, and the timing couldn't be better.
As it turns out, Defensive Tackle is exceptionally deep in this class (and they have an outside shot at Jeffery Simmons), and safety is much deeper than I had expected too. (Good cornerback depth, as well).
The Browns are showing interest in Homie DT Dremont Jones, who could make it to 49 as well.
I have to apologize for repeating myself here, but part of what Greg Robinson's one year contract did was buy time for Desmond Harrison to grow into his freaky physical talent, and I doubt that John Dorsey feels he needs to replace Harrison with a less talented rookie.
Does that make sense? Anybody home?
I don't have to be "bold" to predict that John Dorsey will NOT draft an offensive tackle before the 4th round, and that both of his top two picks will be defensive players.
I hereby predict that Dorsey will draft a Defensive Tackle in the 2nd or 3rd round, and that the other player will be a linebacker or defensive back.
Dorsey won't need to "reach" for his (real) positions of need, and can immediately increase the Browns 2019 Superbowl chances with these two draft picks.
Say it's just Dremont Jones at 49. Well, Dremont is really a lunchpail guy, but he's ready to play in the NFL as a rotational DT. He's not as talented as some of the other guys, but he's accomplished, smart, and ready to go.
The third round player is not expected to start immediately either, but will play a lot as a role or rotational player (to upgrade coverage somehow).
These two defensive players will be immediately important, as the Browns are getting all up in the Steelers' grill in 2019.
Big Ben is still Big Ben, that's still one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, and they'll still be able to outscore most teams.
They'll probably have an upgraded defense when the dust settles, too; certainly they've added a really good run-and-hit veteran linebacker in free agency, and historically draft well.
...what? Ray-what? OH! Somebody is reminding me that the Ravens won the AFC North last year.
Big deal. They just lost three linebackers, and their number one receiver is a little slot guy they got from Dallas.
Their quarterback is only a semi-quarterback, and Harbaugh will have to run a gimmicky offense to make him effective.
That third defensive tackle will be critical for the Browns, as the Ratbirds signed Melvin Ingram, and can steamroll defenses on the ground.
Wilks wants those four down linemen (or three and Genard Avery) on the field all the time, partly to smother the run, while his other seven guys are in coverage.
Lamar Jackson won't crack that code as a passer (just the facts man), and the fast, converging back seven will slow down that running game (including Jackson himself), and get turnovers too.
Gimmicks or no, a one-dimensional offense can be stifled.
The Ravens also want to tell you that losing three linebackers (including Suggs and Mosely) doesn't matter (pay no attention to the man behind the curtain), but this matters in the real world.
Baker Mayfield beat them in game one and racked up 24 points on them in the season finale.
NOW he has OBJ, and the Ravens need three linebackers! NOW, Richardson and Vernon will be joining Garrett and Ogunjobi in checking into Lamar and Melvin's business.
It's a mismatch. The Browns will sweep the Ravens in 2019. You can keep arguing with me, perhaps saying "they're still the Browns" or whatever, but my team is too much better than your team for yours to beat mine.
Anyway back to the REAL threat in the AFC North:
The Steelers are rightfully the underdogs, but under Mike Tomlin win when they're supposed to lose (and lose when they're supposed to win), so there's a scary factoid for you.
Here's the deal with this "they're still the Browns" stuporstition:
Freddie Kitchens and Baker Mayfield don't "choke". They are technically "Browns" now, but didn't get taken over by pod-people at the door.
The Browns have been "the Browns" for nearly two decades because (since Tim Couch, whose injuries destroyed him), they never found their franchise quarterback.
Now they have one. He tore up the league with what he had last season, and Dorsey just brought him OBJ.
I have a lot of fun with Steelers (and to a lesser degree) Ravens fans. A lot of them seem to dislike their respective Head Coaches.
With the Steelers, I get that. But the Ravens fans disliking Harbaugh? ...nevermind.
Anyway, they admit that they are afraid of the Browns...but more precisely of Baker Mayfield.
Stick your "still the Browns" where the sun don't shine.
Slow news day...oh!
Another excellent writer (maybe Peter Smith again) anticipated some new developments with how Olivier Vernon and Myles Garrett would be used.
Garrett is bigger and taller, while Vernon is more of a linebacker (6'2", 268 lbs). But Garrett has already been used (extensively) at DT, and Vernon was a 3-4 OLB.
New Defensive Coordinator Steve Wilks can move these two guys all over the place in search of ideal mismatches.
Myles Garrett (entering his third season) can line up outside a RIGHT tackle, and Vernon can line up almost anywhere (with his hand in the dirt, or standing up).
When you toss in Genard Avery, this can be a an unpredictable, confusing, and adaptable front four (or five, really).
In 2018, opposing Offensive Lines pretty much knew where Garrett would be (including between the left guard and tackle).
In 2019, the addition of Vernon offers Steve Wilks a great opportunity to really screw up enema blocking schemes by moving both of these guys (and Avery) around.
They're zeroing in on Myles Garrett, of course, but they have to adjust protections to wherever he is, and can't help anybody with Vernon (wherever the hell he might show up) or Avery.
Pick your poison. What a nasty "edge"/passrush combo we got here *remember Ogbah was an outside linebacker under Mike Pettine, and played inside a lot under Williams, and on both edges?*
Peter Smith is on the money: First and foremost, Dorsey needs that third rotational DT to anchor (and exploit) that (into the fourth quarter).
...and that's just the defense!
Thursday, March 28, 2019
Ogbah, Duke, "Rumors", Real Analysis, and the Cleveland Browns
Nick Dudukovich is a smart guy, and may be right as he cites guys like me suggesting that it would be a good idea to trade Ogbah for a safety or linebacker. But he still calls those "rumors".
Nick is also (sigh) wrong about Duke Johnson being unavailable "because Kareem Hunt can't play until mid season".
Sigh-groan: Dontrell Hilliard EXISTS, ok? And John Dorsey is inviting draft-eligable running backs for off season visits.
Freddie Kitchens can say Duke Johnson "has a role" here all he wants, but unless that role is significantly expanded since Freddie's stint as Offensive Coordinator, Duke is better off elsewhere.
Not that I want to get rid of the Dukester (I would not, for less than a really good player or a third round draft pick). Hilliard can do some, but not all, of what Duke does. Duke is great depth not only at running back, but also wide receiver.
Also, since he plays so little, let's see more of Duke as at least a punt returner.
So while Nick is wrong about it being unwise to trade Duke Johnson (yet), I really like this swiss army knife player, and can't call Nick a dumbass.
Peter Smith, tell us how you really feel about Sheldon Richardson (I kid):
Peter is thrilled that John Dorsey signed this guy, and got me thrilled too.
Much of what he wrote will sound familiar to you, as great minds think alike... ...
Anyway Pete describes 3-technique defensive tackle as a "black hole" prior to Richardson's arrival.
I confess, I didn't notice it like Pete did. Pete describes Trevon Coley as "terrible", and doubts that he's even a good backup on this roster. That's another guy I was wrong about (shhh!)
Peter says that while Olivier Vernon is a better overall player, Sheldon Richardson is really the "missing piece" for this defensive line.
Through 2018, Opposing offenses were often able to double-team Myles Garrett (without using a tight end to chip).
NOW, opposing offenses will need to chip with tight ends, and/or hold running backs in to help protect their quarterbacks. Their offensive linemen can still double-team somebody, but with a Richardson shooting inside gaps, it's more likely to be him.
And as Pete points out, Welks can rely on his Defensive Line to pressure the passer, and use 7 guys in coverage (and remember: He likes 3-deep, off-man and zone inside: that means jarring hits and interceptions).
Peter also points out that on runs, offensive linemen won't be able to get to Joe Schobert so often, either.
I do think Peter is right about interior Defensive Line depth. Coley is not it. There are zero-shade guys behind Ogunjobi, but not 3-techs.
However, Chris Smith and Chad Thomas are DT/DE hybrids who may be able to help out here in 2019.
Gregg Williams tried a *playing hurt* Ogbah there on passing downs in 2018, but it didn't work.
There is more to this story than those of us outside the organization know. How handicapped was Ogbah by his ankle injury in 2018? Could this be why he "regressed" and disappointed? If so, he is not being aggressively "shopped", as bloggers like me guess he is.
Jeffery Simmons is one of the draft-eligable defensive tackles that John Dorsey invited. His injury, combined with his off-the-field history, could possibly cause him to slide all he way to 49th overall in this draft.
Father Flannigan Dorsey might even consider moving up (within reason) a few slots to nab this miscreant, because he's a stud.
Some teams (perhaps 7-9) will have erased Simmons for his off-the-field stuff in the first place. Others will have downgraded him significantly due to the fact that he is essentially a "redshirt" for his first NFL season. And then, this Defensive Tackle class is historically deep.
Unlike John Dorsey, the majority of NFL GMs are on hot seats, and (like their coaches) feel that they need immediate returns from at least their first and second round draft picks.
All of this adds up to John Dorsey having a legit shot at landing the best DT in this draft class in the second round.
I'm not a big Jeff Risdon fan, but the ten "realistic" options he lists for the Browns at 49th overall aren't as dumb as I'd expected, and several even make sense.
The interior offensive linemen don't, since it generally doesn't make sense to draft players who are not as good as the players you already have, but the cornerbacks, safeties, Simmons and DreMont Jones all make sense.
Jeff may be making progress! He was over 50% right on this one!!!
...okbye.
THIS JUST IN: Thomas Moore sounds like me as he discusses the possibility of Dorsey trading Ogbah for a Philly cornerback who projects to safety.
Thomas is feeling kinda salty about all this, because he doesn't think Ogbah sucks, or understand why everybody (not neccessarily including John Dorsey) wants to get rid of him.
I feel Tom's pain, and commend him for correctly labeling this trade speculation as "speculation", and not "rumor".
Anyway nice caustic sarcasm on this one! Let that beast out more often!
Nick is also (sigh) wrong about Duke Johnson being unavailable "because Kareem Hunt can't play until mid season".
Sigh-groan: Dontrell Hilliard EXISTS, ok? And John Dorsey is inviting draft-eligable running backs for off season visits.
Freddie Kitchens can say Duke Johnson "has a role" here all he wants, but unless that role is significantly expanded since Freddie's stint as Offensive Coordinator, Duke is better off elsewhere.
Not that I want to get rid of the Dukester (I would not, for less than a really good player or a third round draft pick). Hilliard can do some, but not all, of what Duke does. Duke is great depth not only at running back, but also wide receiver.
Also, since he plays so little, let's see more of Duke as at least a punt returner.
So while Nick is wrong about it being unwise to trade Duke Johnson (yet), I really like this swiss army knife player, and can't call Nick a dumbass.
Peter Smith, tell us how you really feel about Sheldon Richardson (I kid):
Peter is thrilled that John Dorsey signed this guy, and got me thrilled too.
Much of what he wrote will sound familiar to you, as great minds think alike... ...
Anyway Pete describes 3-technique defensive tackle as a "black hole" prior to Richardson's arrival.
I confess, I didn't notice it like Pete did. Pete describes Trevon Coley as "terrible", and doubts that he's even a good backup on this roster. That's another guy I was wrong about (shhh!)
Peter says that while Olivier Vernon is a better overall player, Sheldon Richardson is really the "missing piece" for this defensive line.
Through 2018, Opposing offenses were often able to double-team Myles Garrett (without using a tight end to chip).
NOW, opposing offenses will need to chip with tight ends, and/or hold running backs in to help protect their quarterbacks. Their offensive linemen can still double-team somebody, but with a Richardson shooting inside gaps, it's more likely to be him.
And as Pete points out, Welks can rely on his Defensive Line to pressure the passer, and use 7 guys in coverage (and remember: He likes 3-deep, off-man and zone inside: that means jarring hits and interceptions).
Peter also points out that on runs, offensive linemen won't be able to get to Joe Schobert so often, either.
I do think Peter is right about interior Defensive Line depth. Coley is not it. There are zero-shade guys behind Ogunjobi, but not 3-techs.
However, Chris Smith and Chad Thomas are DT/DE hybrids who may be able to help out here in 2019.
Gregg Williams tried a *playing hurt* Ogbah there on passing downs in 2018, but it didn't work.
There is more to this story than those of us outside the organization know. How handicapped was Ogbah by his ankle injury in 2018? Could this be why he "regressed" and disappointed? If so, he is not being aggressively "shopped", as bloggers like me guess he is.
Jeffery Simmons is one of the draft-eligable defensive tackles that John Dorsey invited. His injury, combined with his off-the-field history, could possibly cause him to slide all he way to 49th overall in this draft.
Father Flannigan Dorsey might even consider moving up (within reason) a few slots to nab this miscreant, because he's a stud.
Some teams (perhaps 7-9) will have erased Simmons for his off-the-field stuff in the first place. Others will have downgraded him significantly due to the fact that he is essentially a "redshirt" for his first NFL season. And then, this Defensive Tackle class is historically deep.
Unlike John Dorsey, the majority of NFL GMs are on hot seats, and (like their coaches) feel that they need immediate returns from at least their first and second round draft picks.
All of this adds up to John Dorsey having a legit shot at landing the best DT in this draft class in the second round.
I'm not a big Jeff Risdon fan, but the ten "realistic" options he lists for the Browns at 49th overall aren't as dumb as I'd expected, and several even make sense.
The interior offensive linemen don't, since it generally doesn't make sense to draft players who are not as good as the players you already have, but the cornerbacks, safeties, Simmons and DreMont Jones all make sense.
Jeff may be making progress! He was over 50% right on this one!!!
...okbye.
THIS JUST IN: Thomas Moore sounds like me as he discusses the possibility of Dorsey trading Ogbah for a Philly cornerback who projects to safety.
Thomas is feeling kinda salty about all this, because he doesn't think Ogbah sucks, or understand why everybody (not neccessarily including John Dorsey) wants to get rid of him.
I feel Tom's pain, and commend him for correctly labeling this trade speculation as "speculation", and not "rumor".
Anyway nice caustic sarcasm on this one! Let that beast out more often!
Wednesday, March 27, 2019
The 2019 Browns are Still the Browns. Pay no Attention to the Man behind the Curtain.
It is with shock and difficulty that I must compliment Jason LaCanfora for a very good article on Freddie Kitchens and the Browns.
This isn't the first, either. It's like the guy has evolved from a frustrated Soap Opera writer/gossip writer into a real sports columnist.
Anyway, Jason does stick to his main interest: Psychology and sociology here, and the gist of what he says is that Freddie Kitchens shouldn't have any trouble controlling the volatile personalities on the Browns' roster, and will not lose his mind (or whatever) under the pressure of higher expectations.
Freddie is getting a TON of support from John Dorsey: Todd Monken was a brilliant OC himself, and a Head Coach candidate. Steve Wilks WAS a Head Coach. The Special Teams coach is exceptional, and EVERY assistant coach is highly rated.
And LaCanfora is right (can't believe I'm saying this) about Freddie's nature and personality:
Unlike Bill Bellichick 1.0, Freddie is easy-going, and not a control-freak. We (or at least I ) saw this when he took over the offense, and immediately gave his rookie quarterback more authority and discretion.
Mayfield changed a bunch of plays at the line of scrimmage, because he was allowed to.
Along with a more Mayfield-appropriate "playbook", this freedom is why Mayfield was so astronomically better without Mywayorthehighway Haley than with him.
I hear the dumbest questions:
1: What happens when they lose 3 in a row?
...Why would they? Okay lots of injuries or something, but what's your point? OBJ starts throwing tantrums or something? Civil war?
You think Kitchens will "lose control of the team" or something?
And again, why would the 2019 Browns lose 3 in a row?
John Gruden summed up the biggest part of this perfectly:
With Baker Mayfield (in John's opinion an obvious "franchise" quarterback), you have a chance to win each and every game...even if the rest of your team is "meh".
But the 2019 Browns are LOADED, so...ask me what happens if they lose 3 in a row if they somehow manage to lose 2 in a row.
2: What happens when OBJ starts bashing Mayfield?
...what? Huh?
Don't confuse OBJ with Antonio Brown. OBJ's biggest frustrations come from losing games, and not his teammates getting almost as many targets as he does.
It's not a me me me thing. It's a lose-lose-lose thing with OBJ.
I'm not sure what (if anything) Odell said about or to Eli Manning, but I can tell you that Baker Mayfield is already a much more effective deep-passer than EliGod Manning ever was.
Just the facts, man! Axe Numberfire or PFF or whoever! OBJ CAN'T get in (his friend) Mayfield's face, even if he wanted to...
...but why WOULD he? OBJ will be the X in 2019. That's the real "number one" in every offense, because he's the guy who goes deepest, and which opposing defenses have to use a free safety to help on.
Of course, the Monken/Kitchens offense will spead the ball around, and have OBJ himself go "underneath" a lot.
But I think Odell can deal with that. He's emotionally-stunted and craves attention, but he's not really selfish (or stupid). He just wants to win.
He'll be happy to share with Jarvis, Andre, Nick, and Antonio as long as the Browns win games.
Baker Mayfield has gone out of his way to befriend OBJ, with Jarvis Landry's help. I can now guarantee you that this was Baker Mayfield helping John Dorsey out:
"If you can get this guy, do so. I can handle him."
Freddie Kitchens scoffs at the Duke Johnson trade rumors, but he's just a Coach, standing up for one of his players.
Ignore him. Freddie himself hardly used Duke Johnson after he took over for Mywayorthehighway Haley.
John Dorsey *and Paul DePodesta* need to be efficient. Callaway and Landry were here BEFORE Beckham, Freddie unchained ran lots of two and three-tight end offenses, Monken is a 4-wide guy (and they now have all four without Duke), and (my own opinion) Nick Chubb is the next Todd Gurley and Kareem Hunt already is, so:
Dorsey will try to cash Duke (and his very cheap salary) in for (at least) a third round draft pick.
Why do you all hate Dontrell Hilliard so much? Where did Dorsey draft Kareem Hunt--the 3rd round?
You people kill me:
The Steelers lose Ebineezer Bell, and, just miraculously, TWO "lesser" running backs approximate his stats.
Zzzing! Ebineezer is still much better, and it has nothing to do with the offensive line or quarterback zinnggg!
You're all so oblivious; so knee-jerk reactive.
You think the Steelers offense will collapse because they lost Antonio Brown? You list Ebineezer Bell as a "loss" in 2019?
PS: watch BOTH these guys go the way of Wes Welker now. Whuh happun?
You will need to remember all the non ME's who were lobbying for John Dorsey to P A Y AB or Ebineezer, and who told you how stupid that would be.
Oh for crying out loud I mean ME zinggg...
Anyhoo, the STEELERS are the second-scariest team in the AFC North--NOT the Ravens.
Ravens Head Coach John Harbaugh wasn't afraid to admit that he is outgunned by the 2019 Browns "on paper".
SKIP THE OBLIGITORY ASTERISKS. Harbaugh expects to out-manuever Kitchens, and so does Tomlin.
...somehow...
Speaking of which, one Ravens writer agreed with one Steelers writer that the 2019 Browns would fail because they were "the Browns".
How pitiful. How dumb. How sad.
Jim Harbaugh is great. You can give Lamar Jackson credit for what he did, but in reality, Jim Harbaugh transitioned from Joe Flacco to Lamar Jackson and still managed to win the AFC North.
I find it refreshing that a Head Coach is finally honest like that!!!
It goes without saying that Jim Harbaugh intends to beat the Browns again. He has already told his players that the Browns are more talented than his team.
This is astronomically better than bullshit. Most Headcases Coaches lie to their players, and the players know bullshit when they hear it.
You're not doing a left tackle any favors if you say he will handle Myles Garrett just fine, or a defense any favors if you tell them Baker Mayfield will choke.
I really respect Jim Harbaugh. But he'll still lose to the Browns.
This isn't the first, either. It's like the guy has evolved from a frustrated Soap Opera writer/gossip writer into a real sports columnist.
Anyway, Jason does stick to his main interest: Psychology and sociology here, and the gist of what he says is that Freddie Kitchens shouldn't have any trouble controlling the volatile personalities on the Browns' roster, and will not lose his mind (or whatever) under the pressure of higher expectations.
Freddie is getting a TON of support from John Dorsey: Todd Monken was a brilliant OC himself, and a Head Coach candidate. Steve Wilks WAS a Head Coach. The Special Teams coach is exceptional, and EVERY assistant coach is highly rated.
And LaCanfora is right (can't believe I'm saying this) about Freddie's nature and personality:
Unlike Bill Bellichick 1.0, Freddie is easy-going, and not a control-freak. We (or at least I ) saw this when he took over the offense, and immediately gave his rookie quarterback more authority and discretion.
Mayfield changed a bunch of plays at the line of scrimmage, because he was allowed to.
Along with a more Mayfield-appropriate "playbook", this freedom is why Mayfield was so astronomically better without Mywayorthehighway Haley than with him.
I hear the dumbest questions:
1: What happens when they lose 3 in a row?
...Why would they? Okay lots of injuries or something, but what's your point? OBJ starts throwing tantrums or something? Civil war?
You think Kitchens will "lose control of the team" or something?
And again, why would the 2019 Browns lose 3 in a row?
John Gruden summed up the biggest part of this perfectly:
With Baker Mayfield (in John's opinion an obvious "franchise" quarterback), you have a chance to win each and every game...even if the rest of your team is "meh".
But the 2019 Browns are LOADED, so...ask me what happens if they lose 3 in a row if they somehow manage to lose 2 in a row.
2: What happens when OBJ starts bashing Mayfield?
...what? Huh?
Don't confuse OBJ with Antonio Brown. OBJ's biggest frustrations come from losing games, and not his teammates getting almost as many targets as he does.
It's not a me me me thing. It's a lose-lose-lose thing with OBJ.
I'm not sure what (if anything) Odell said about or to Eli Manning, but I can tell you that Baker Mayfield is already a much more effective deep-passer than Eli
Just the facts, man! Axe Numberfire or PFF or whoever! OBJ CAN'T get in (his friend) Mayfield's face, even if he wanted to...
...but why WOULD he? OBJ will be the X in 2019. That's the real "number one" in every offense, because he's the guy who goes deepest, and which opposing defenses have to use a free safety to help on.
Of course, the Monken/Kitchens offense will spead the ball around, and have OBJ himself go "underneath" a lot.
But I think Odell can deal with that. He's emotionally-stunted and craves attention, but he's not really selfish (or stupid). He just wants to win.
He'll be happy to share with Jarvis, Andre, Nick, and Antonio as long as the Browns win games.
Baker Mayfield has gone out of his way to befriend OBJ, with Jarvis Landry's help. I can now guarantee you that this was Baker Mayfield helping John Dorsey out:
"If you can get this guy, do so. I can handle him."
Freddie Kitchens scoffs at the Duke Johnson trade rumors, but he's just a Coach, standing up for one of his players.
Ignore him. Freddie himself hardly used Duke Johnson after he took over for Mywayorthehighway Haley.
John Dorsey *and Paul DePodesta* need to be efficient. Callaway and Landry were here BEFORE Beckham, Freddie unchained ran lots of two and three-tight end offenses, Monken is a 4-wide guy (and they now have all four without Duke), and (my own opinion) Nick Chubb is the next Todd Gurley and Kareem Hunt already is, so:
Dorsey will try to cash Duke (and his very cheap salary) in for (at least) a third round draft pick.
Why do you all hate Dontrell Hilliard so much? Where did Dorsey draft Kareem Hunt--the 3rd round?
You people kill me:
The Steelers lose Ebineezer Bell, and, just miraculously, TWO "lesser" running backs approximate his stats.
Zzzing! Ebineezer is still much better, and it has nothing to do with the offensive line or quarterback zinnggg!
You're all so oblivious; so knee-jerk reactive.
You think the Steelers offense will collapse because they lost Antonio Brown? You list Ebineezer Bell as a "loss" in 2019?
PS: watch BOTH these guys go the way of Wes Welker now. Whuh happun?
You will need to remember all the non ME's who were lobbying for John Dorsey to P A Y AB or Ebineezer, and who told you how stupid that would be.
Oh for crying out loud I mean ME zinggg...
Anyhoo, the STEELERS are the second-scariest team in the AFC North--NOT the Ravens.
Ravens Head Coach John Harbaugh wasn't afraid to admit that he is outgunned by the 2019 Browns "on paper".
SKIP THE OBLIGITORY ASTERISKS. Harbaugh expects to out-manuever Kitchens, and so does Tomlin.
...somehow...
Speaking of which, one Ravens writer agreed with one Steelers writer that the 2019 Browns would fail because they were "the Browns".
How pitiful. How dumb. How sad.
Jim Harbaugh is great. You can give Lamar Jackson credit for what he did, but in reality, Jim Harbaugh transitioned from Joe Flacco to Lamar Jackson and still managed to win the AFC North.
I find it refreshing that a Head Coach is finally honest like that!!!
It goes without saying that Jim Harbaugh intends to beat the Browns again. He has already told his players that the Browns are more talented than his team.
This is astronomically better than bullshit. Most Head
You're not doing a left tackle any favors if you say he will handle Myles Garrett just fine, or a defense any favors if you tell them Baker Mayfield will choke.
I really respect Jim Harbaugh. But he'll still lose to the Browns.
Sunday, March 24, 2019
Browns vs Colts: Ballard Ahead of Dorsey so far. Dammit.
This article by Steven Ruiz compares the team-building strategies of Dorsey's Browns to Ballard's Colts, and it's scary.
John Dorsey has hit free agency hard to win right now, while Ballard has been more patient, and saved money (and draft picks) by exploiting the second wave (tier) of free agents to fill in the gaps in his roster.
Dorsey has, indeed, built a real contender on paper with historic rapidity, but has depleted his draft picks and his war chest in doing so.
Steve predicts some real problems for Dorsey as the contracts for Garrett, Ogunjobi, Schobert, Njoku etc all reach critical mass at the same time, with Mayfield, Ward, Corbett, Chubb etc coming up right behind them.
Those are a couple balloon payments nobody wants to think about.
And Steve rightfully compares the Colts model to the Patriots model...and is correct about that. He also says that NO team is great at drafting. They all miss, and big successes in out of the lower rounds remain rare.
So Ballard and Dorsey will miss on some draft picks...but Ballard has more of them, and also more cap money left.
My inner-fan wants to argue with Steven, but my inner-analyst has a gag stuffed in his ignorant mouth.
Ruiz is right. The Browns might tear the league a new one for two seasons, but then will lose some of their best young players. Meanwhile, the Colts are also contenders in 2019, but have moe munnah and more draft picks (and the draft picks are inexpensive, cap-wise).
Despite not being able to fault any part of Steve Ruiz's excellent, objective, clear-headed and insightful analysis, I can, at least, mitigate it a little:
1: Ballard has Andrew Luck through 2022, per his 6-year contract signed before the 2016 season. With the fifth year option, Dorsey has Mayfield on his rookie contract through 2023.
It rarely works out that way, of course. Teams always offer extensions (to great quarterbacks) well ahead of that fifth year. These guys (and their agents) know when they're being taken advantage of due to technicalities, and if a GM holds them to their rookie contract through year five, they will leave.
This is what happened with Kirk Cousins. He was drafted lower, so it happened after four years. He felt insulted, so the Skins had to franchise him. Then they did it again. Then he got massively overpaid by somebody else.
Conversely, the Seahawks extended Wilson after year 3.
That's the time: The player and his agent understand that the team could hold them to their chump-change rookie contract, and is offering them a huge bribe and long-term security to keep them around.
Ebineezer Scrooge could never be an NFL GM.
...but I digress: Ballard and Dorsey will have the same problem at around the same time in re their quarterbacks (actually Luck probably comes up a year sooner anyway; same business dynamics apply--his contract will have been outraced by NFL inflation).
2: Beckham is 26, and is under contract for a long time. Richardson and Vernon are 28, and likewise locked up for awhile. Dorsey paid market prices for them; he did not "overpay".
3: Jabrill Peppers was part of Dorsey's future "balloon payments", and so was Zeitler.
4: Steve (citing Spotrack) said the Browns are down to 19 mil in cap space, but I think it's still over 37 mil. I could be wrong, but I wouldn't be alone.
5: The current cap figures will change a lot between now and 2020.
I can even now wildly guess at at least a 3% increase in per-team cap-space (more likely over 5%).
6: Dorsey can seek to extend young players early (see "1"). Nobody wants to play out their rookie contracts. Everybody wants as much guaranteed up-front money as they can get, and long-term security.
We in the real world don't get this stuff, but these football players are all acutely aware that they are an injury away from stacking boxes in a grocery store.
They're also aware that 3.5 million is more than 950k, and will generally take that deal...
Well that's just me! You guys need to help me out and tell John Dorsey this stuff, since they still haven't fixed that IT issue that bounces my texts and emails as "undeliverable"...
Steve Ruiz credits Sashi Brown with the incredible pile of draft picks and money (and talent) that Dorsey inherited, but that was Paul DePodesta, who is still the Chief Strategy Officer.
No knock on Sashi here, but he was an attorney and negotiator. He never "found" any players, or...well Steve just missed the mark here. Piling up those draft picks and that money was all DePodesta.
I don't think the collapse that Steven Ruiz will happen...ok well not as bad as he expects it to.
Dorsey has built his (under 28) young core of talent. He's got his new free agents locked up.
I myself have lobbied for Boston or Cyprian, but Eric Berry might be even cheaper than them!
Randy Gurzi never misses anything! Berry is an all-world talent, but he's 30 and has been injured, so he's lost all his leverage.
And Gurzi is absolutely on the money that the worse it gets for Berry on the open market, the more likely Dorsey is to be his last resort...for peanuts. For one year.
Randy no doubt reads my Blog, as he has finally "realized" that Rodney Kindredfield is a viable Strong Safety, so that even if Berry missed still more time with injuries, it wouldn't be a disaster.
I congratulate Randy for coming to this epiphany all by himself🖕. Dammit.
If John Dorsey (like Randy) is one of my seven dedicated readers, the rest of you can relax:
Dorsey should "back off" now in free agency, and spend chump-change on more free agents (like Berry) on cheap one year "prove it" contracts.
If he signs any more (longer-term) help to longer-term contracts, he will put all bonuses and guaranteed monies up front.
John DePodesta is still here, and I believe that John Dorsey (and Paul DePodesta) will find a way out of the collapse that Steven Ruiz predicts...
Well that is if Dorsey gets my advice (blush-blush).
John Dorsey has hit free agency hard to win right now, while Ballard has been more patient, and saved money (and draft picks) by exploiting the second wave (tier) of free agents to fill in the gaps in his roster.
Dorsey has, indeed, built a real contender on paper with historic rapidity, but has depleted his draft picks and his war chest in doing so.
Steve predicts some real problems for Dorsey as the contracts for Garrett, Ogunjobi, Schobert, Njoku etc all reach critical mass at the same time, with Mayfield, Ward, Corbett, Chubb etc coming up right behind them.
Those are a couple balloon payments nobody wants to think about.
And Steve rightfully compares the Colts model to the Patriots model...and is correct about that. He also says that NO team is great at drafting. They all miss, and big successes in out of the lower rounds remain rare.
So Ballard and Dorsey will miss on some draft picks...but Ballard has more of them, and also more cap money left.
My inner-fan wants to argue with Steven, but my inner-analyst has a gag stuffed in his ignorant mouth.
Ruiz is right. The Browns might tear the league a new one for two seasons, but then will lose some of their best young players. Meanwhile, the Colts are also contenders in 2019, but have moe munnah and more draft picks (and the draft picks are inexpensive, cap-wise).
Despite not being able to fault any part of Steve Ruiz's excellent, objective, clear-headed and insightful analysis, I can, at least, mitigate it a little:
1: Ballard has Andrew Luck through 2022, per his 6-year contract signed before the 2016 season. With the fifth year option, Dorsey has Mayfield on his rookie contract through 2023.
It rarely works out that way, of course. Teams always offer extensions (to great quarterbacks) well ahead of that fifth year. These guys (and their agents) know when they're being taken advantage of due to technicalities, and if a GM holds them to their rookie contract through year five, they will leave.
This is what happened with Kirk Cousins. He was drafted lower, so it happened after four years. He felt insulted, so the Skins had to franchise him. Then they did it again. Then he got massively overpaid by somebody else.
Conversely, the Seahawks extended Wilson after year 3.
That's the time: The player and his agent understand that the team could hold them to their chump-change rookie contract, and is offering them a huge bribe and long-term security to keep them around.
Ebineezer Scrooge could never be an NFL GM.
...but I digress: Ballard and Dorsey will have the same problem at around the same time in re their quarterbacks (actually Luck probably comes up a year sooner anyway; same business dynamics apply--his contract will have been outraced by NFL inflation).
2: Beckham is 26, and is under contract for a long time. Richardson and Vernon are 28, and likewise locked up for awhile. Dorsey paid market prices for them; he did not "overpay".
3: Jabrill Peppers was part of Dorsey's future "balloon payments", and so was Zeitler.
4: Steve (citing Spotrack) said the Browns are down to 19 mil in cap space, but I think it's still over 37 mil. I could be wrong, but I wouldn't be alone.
5: The current cap figures will change a lot between now and 2020.
I can even now wildly guess at at least a 3% increase in per-team cap-space (more likely over 5%).
6: Dorsey can seek to extend young players early (see "1"). Nobody wants to play out their rookie contracts. Everybody wants as much guaranteed up-front money as they can get, and long-term security.
We in the real world don't get this stuff, but these football players are all acutely aware that they are an injury away from stacking boxes in a grocery store.
They're also aware that 3.5 million is more than 950k, and will generally take that deal...
Well that's just me! You guys need to help me out and tell John Dorsey this stuff, since they still haven't fixed that IT issue that bounces my texts and emails as "undeliverable"...
Steve Ruiz credits Sashi Brown with the incredible pile of draft picks and money (and talent) that Dorsey inherited, but that was Paul DePodesta, who is still the Chief Strategy Officer.
No knock on Sashi here, but he was an attorney and negotiator. He never "found" any players, or...well Steve just missed the mark here. Piling up those draft picks and that money was all DePodesta.
I don't think the collapse that Steven Ruiz will happen...ok well not as bad as he expects it to.
Dorsey has built his (under 28) young core of talent. He's got his new free agents locked up.
I myself have lobbied for Boston or Cyprian, but Eric Berry might be even cheaper than them!
Randy Gurzi never misses anything! Berry is an all-world talent, but he's 30 and has been injured, so he's lost all his leverage.
And Gurzi is absolutely on the money that the worse it gets for Berry on the open market, the more likely Dorsey is to be his last resort...for peanuts. For one year.
Randy no doubt reads my Blog, as he has finally "realized" that Rodney Kindredfield is a viable Strong Safety, so that even if Berry missed still more time with injuries, it wouldn't be a disaster.
I congratulate Randy for coming to this epiphany all by himself🖕. Dammit.
If John Dorsey (like Randy) is one of my seven dedicated readers, the rest of you can relax:
Dorsey should "back off" now in free agency, and spend chump-change on more free agents (like Berry) on cheap one year "prove it" contracts.
If he signs any more (longer-term) help to longer-term contracts, he will put all bonuses and guaranteed monies up front.
John DePodesta is still here, and I believe that John Dorsey (and Paul DePodesta) will find a way out of the collapse that Steven Ruiz predicts...
Well that is if Dorsey gets my advice (blush-blush).
Friday, March 22, 2019
John Dorsey Thinking with his Brain, "Analyitics", and Clues for the Clueless
John Dorsey's signing Offensive Lineman Bryan Witzmann (no doubt as a gesture to yours truly to fix my free agent jones--thanks John) isn't very significant.
As were Kush and Lamm, Witzmann has been below average as a run-blocker (in Witzmann's case) ok as a pass-protector.
Witzmann is a little different because he's a 6'7+" skyscraper who could potentially fill in at right tackle as well as either guard spot.
John Dorsey is "overloading" on veteran free agents journeyman offensive linemen. As far as I know, none of these guys (Kush/Lamm/Witzmann) qualify for practice squads, and they all know that at least one of them won't make it in Cleveland.
Rodney Harrisonfield qualifies for the Practice Squad, but unless he starts the season on it, he has to survive waivers unclaimed first, and I think he has an excellent chance of being one of the seven or eight offensive linemen on the final roster.
Harrison is a pure tackle, and a superior athlete with Joe Thomas-like physical tools. He's taller than Big Joe (to his disadvantage), but can move around like he does.
With Greg Williams the nominal starter at Left Tackle, James Campen might already have Harrison working at right tackle.
You get this, right? (sigh) ok:
1: In today's NFL, defenses routinely seek to overmatch right tackles with quick/fast edge-rushers. On passing downs, the athletic gap between Left and Right Tackles is much narrower.
2: It's still a lot easier to find guards than tackles.
3: Harrison was under 300 lbs as a rookie, but he remains 6'7". Assuming he has followed orders, (I admit, a leap of faith, given his history), he really should come back to training camp at at last 315, and significantly stronger.
Harrison got "jacked up" by bullrushers getting inside and under his pads in pass-pro, and "lunged" too much as a run-blocker too. He wasn't really ready for the NFL.
I'm not about to pile more dirt on Hue Jackson over making Harrison the starter at the last moment (since Greg Robinson wasn't available, and Joel Bitonio BELONGED at LG anyway, and Bob Wylie had a vote), but Desmond Harrison 2.0 can reasonably be expected to be an "upgrade" over 1.0 D O Y E E...
Anyway Harrison might have sucked as a rookie starter at LEFT tackle, but he has all that experience now, and Campen has to want to KEEP him, because
1: Short-term, he's a better athlete than most of the starting LEFT tackles in the NFL (let alone this Draft class), and he has 8(?)games worth of starting experience there.
The transition from left to right (and vice-vesa) is very difficult (opposite foot and hand-work, etc), but here Harrison has a full offseason to focus on that.
If I'm right, Campen will want him to be THE "swing-tackle" in 2019 because
2: Harrison is still "raw" and needs more polishing; there's no reason to push him ahead of Greg Robinson right now...but challenging Hubbard is a different matter.
3: Long-term, when Desmond Harrison enters his third season in 2020, he has the potential to be one of the best LEFT Tackles in the NFL.
The Draft could change this, but for now I think Kush and Desmond Harrison will be on the active roster in game 1.
Gee I apologize for going so deep into non-fantasy players and boring you to death🖕 with mere blockers and depth players excuse the hell outta ME!
🖕🖕🖕(no offense intended).
Andrew Gribble does a better job of filtering out idiotic questions than MKC does, and keeps surprising me with his deeper, more insightful responses:
What would it take for the Browns to trade into the 1st round from 17th in the second round?
My own response would be brief and blunt, but Andrew's reply, as it often does, made me reconsider:
Gribble compares the more recent Harvard trade value chart to the old Jimmy Johnson chart, and implies that it's a lot less expensive to move up in the draft than it used to be.
On this planet, the (real) expert consensus that the 2019 Browns are the favorites to win the AFC North and Superbowl contenders is accurate.
This is partly because the overall roster is stacked with talent.
I said this long before Dorsey pulled off the OBJ Trade:
Dorsey had too many draft picks, and if he didn't trade up (or into 2020 or beyond), his 4th-round and lower players might ALL get waived, so he should trade up or into the future.
NOW, Dorsey has already built an elite defensive line and nailed down a top 3 wide receiver!
...you guys who read this Blog know that OBJ was unneccessary (but acceptable for the price). You know that Zietler was on the block...
Anyway, now he has no first round pick, but his roster has no legitimate "needs" on offense or defense. His Browns as-is are ranked in the top ten in power-rankings, as favorites to win the AFC North, and as Superbowl contenders.
Sorry to keep hammering that, but a lot of you people have Stockholm Syndrome, and I'm not physically close enough to you to slap you awake.
Anyway, John Dorsey might move up in this 2019 draft.
But (correction intended) probably NOT for a cornerback to replace Rodney Mitchellfield, who broke his forearm, and returned shortly-- dammit what is WRONG with you people!?! You want to replace Mitchell as a health-risk off THAT injury!?!
Not that a THIRD stud press/man corner would hurt, but oh HELL no Dorsey won't trade up for one of those, especially with Steve Wilks (see numerous earlier posts) taking over for Gregg Williams.
WEAKSIDE linebacker and safety are the REAL priorities here.
...not that Dorsey won't move up for a stud, regardless of "need" or position.
...but he does need to move up or into the future to max out his remaining draft picks in this 2019 draft.
And I'm sorry: this is...analytics.
Waitaminnit! Don't run away from the big word, just because some "football guys" have trained you to laugh at it!
I wish I had had the software (let alone hardware) these youngsters have to help me out, but gdammit if you don't take PFF or Numberfire seriously, you need a brain transplant.
YOU PEOPLE don't want to know that Njoku sucked as a blocker in 2018, or that both Browns' offensive tackles were below average run-blockers.
You don't want to know that Zeitler was terrific run-blocker either...
But I am here for you, to muffle your spazzdom:
Corbett should do fine in year two at right guard. Probably not as good as Zeitler at first, but as good or better long-term...
Oh sorry to bore you again with the "grunts", but that's what we call "intelligence analysis", and you people don't get most of it.
"Analytics": What a fancy word to make fun of...
YOU PEOPLE are generally clueless. John Dorsey is almost as analytical as DePodesta and I are.
Oh yeah: "analytical" is a real word! It it pre-dates"analytics", and has a lot more to do with elementary logic and common sense than you people get...
As were Kush and Lamm, Witzmann has been below average as a run-blocker (in Witzmann's case) ok as a pass-protector.
Witzmann is a little different because he's a 6'7+" skyscraper who could potentially fill in at right tackle as well as either guard spot.
John Dorsey is "overloading" on veteran free agents journeyman offensive linemen. As far as I know, none of these guys (Kush/Lamm/Witzmann) qualify for practice squads, and they all know that at least one of them won't make it in Cleveland.
Rodney Harrisonfield qualifies for the Practice Squad, but unless he starts the season on it, he has to survive waivers unclaimed first, and I think he has an excellent chance of being one of the seven or eight offensive linemen on the final roster.
Harrison is a pure tackle, and a superior athlete with Joe Thomas-like physical tools. He's taller than Big Joe (to his disadvantage), but can move around like he does.
With Greg Williams the nominal starter at Left Tackle, James Campen might already have Harrison working at right tackle.
You get this, right? (sigh) ok:
1: In today's NFL, defenses routinely seek to overmatch right tackles with quick/fast edge-rushers. On passing downs, the athletic gap between Left and Right Tackles is much narrower.
2: It's still a lot easier to find guards than tackles.
3: Harrison was under 300 lbs as a rookie, but he remains 6'7". Assuming he has followed orders, (I admit, a leap of faith, given his history), he really should come back to training camp at at last 315, and significantly stronger.
Harrison got "jacked up" by bullrushers getting inside and under his pads in pass-pro, and "lunged" too much as a run-blocker too. He wasn't really ready for the NFL.
I'm not about to pile more dirt on Hue Jackson over making Harrison the starter at the last moment (since Greg Robinson wasn't available, and Joel Bitonio BELONGED at LG anyway, and Bob Wylie had a vote), but Desmond Harrison 2.0 can reasonably be expected to be an "upgrade" over 1.0 D O Y E E...
Anyway Harrison might have sucked as a rookie starter at LEFT tackle, but he has all that experience now, and Campen has to want to KEEP him, because
1: Short-term, he's a better athlete than most of the starting LEFT tackles in the NFL (let alone this Draft class), and he has 8(?)games worth of starting experience there.
The transition from left to right (and vice-vesa) is very difficult (opposite foot and hand-work, etc), but here Harrison has a full offseason to focus on that.
If I'm right, Campen will want him to be THE "swing-tackle" in 2019 because
2: Harrison is still "raw" and needs more polishing; there's no reason to push him ahead of Greg Robinson right now...but challenging Hubbard is a different matter.
3: Long-term, when Desmond Harrison enters his third season in 2020, he has the potential to be one of the best LEFT Tackles in the NFL.
The Draft could change this, but for now I think Kush and Desmond Harrison will be on the active roster in game 1.
Gee I apologize for going so deep into non-fantasy players and boring you to death🖕 with mere blockers and depth players excuse the hell outta ME!
🖕🖕🖕(
Andrew Gribble does a better job of filtering out idiotic questions than MKC does, and keeps surprising me with his deeper, more insightful responses:
What would it take for the Browns to trade into the 1st round from 17th in the second round?
My own response would be brief and blunt, but Andrew's reply, as it often does, made me reconsider:
Gribble compares the more recent Harvard trade value chart to the old Jimmy Johnson chart, and implies that it's a lot less expensive to move up in the draft than it used to be.
On this planet, the (real) expert consensus that the 2019 Browns are the favorites to win the AFC North and Superbowl contenders is accurate.
This is partly because the overall roster is stacked with talent.
I said this long before Dorsey pulled off the OBJ Trade:
Dorsey had too many draft picks, and if he didn't trade up (or into 2020 or beyond), his 4th-round and lower players might ALL get waived, so he should trade up or into the future.
NOW, Dorsey has already built an elite defensive line and nailed down a top 3 wide receiver!
...you guys who read this Blog know that OBJ was unneccessary (but acceptable for the price). You know that Zietler was on the block...
Anyway, now he has no first round pick, but his roster has no legitimate "needs" on offense or defense. His Browns as-is are ranked in the top ten in power-rankings, as favorites to win the AFC North, and as Superbowl contenders.
Sorry to keep hammering that, but a lot of you people have Stockholm Syndrome, and I'm not physically close enough to you to slap you awake.
Anyway, John Dorsey might move up in this 2019 draft.
But (correction intended) probably NOT for a cornerback to replace Rodney Mitchellfield, who broke his forearm, and returned shortly-- dammit what is WRONG with you people!?! You want to replace Mitchell as a health-risk off THAT injury!?!
Not that a THIRD stud press/man corner would hurt, but oh HELL no Dorsey won't trade up for one of those, especially with Steve Wilks (see numerous earlier posts) taking over for Gregg Williams.
WEAKSIDE linebacker and safety are the REAL priorities here.
...not that Dorsey won't move up for a stud, regardless of "need" or position.
...but he does need to move up or into the future to max out his remaining draft picks in this 2019 draft.
And I'm sorry: this is...analytics.
Waitaminnit! Don't run away from the big word, just because some "football guys" have trained you to laugh at it!
I wish I had had the software (let alone hardware) these youngsters have to help me out, but gdammit if you don't take PFF or Numberfire seriously, you need a brain transplant.
YOU PEOPLE don't want to know that Njoku sucked as a blocker in 2018, or that both Browns' offensive tackles were below average run-blockers.
You don't want to know that Zeitler was terrific run-blocker either...
But I am here for you, to muffle your spazzdom:
Corbett should do fine in year two at right guard. Probably not as good as Zeitler at first, but as good or better long-term...
Oh sorry to bore you again with the "grunts", but that's what we call "intelligence analysis", and you people don't get most of it.
"Analytics": What a fancy word to make fun of...
YOU PEOPLE are generally clueless. John Dorsey is almost as analytical as DePodesta and I are.
Oh yeah: "analytical" is a real word! It it pre-dates"analytics", and has a lot more to do with elementary logic and common sense than you people get...
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