Wednesday, August 1, 2018

Duke, Tyrod, Ignorance, Rampant Underestimation, and the Browns

So, Duke Johnson likes playing receiver more than he does running back?

Well, if you read this Blog, the Dukester is why I suspect that the Browns might keep only five "official" wide receivers.

Hue Jackson screwed up a lot, but deserves credit for using Duke at wide receiver as much as he did.  Todd Haley...well look no further than Ebineezer Bell.

Duke is already mostly where he wants to be, and that's partly why they're paying him a lot of money.  He's not being paid to sit on the bench.

The top two wide receivers here are Gordon and Landry (and yeah Josh should be back and be fine.  He's working out with that Montgomery guy in Florida who got him all rocked up in the first place).

Callaway and Coleman are certainly going to be in the mix behind them, but Duke is...well, Duke!

Duke and Landry are kind of similar.  Duke is scarier after the catch, but also nearly as reliable.  

So far this offseason, Todd Haley has been using Jarvis both outside and inside, and he's been running the whole route tree.  We could see either of them in the slot or outside, running all the same routes.

That's nice for depth.  If one or the other misses time, no adjustments are neccessary.

Duke is different, because he is a dangerous, full-spectrum running back.  If he's the only running back to trot to the huddle, that's one thing, but if Hyde or Chubb are with him, the defensive coordinator has to make a tough personnel call.

And there really is no "right" answer, because Duke will line up or shift to the spot that defense least wants him to be, every time.

Duke Johnson should be on the field over 70% of the time in 2018, and end up lining up wide or in the slot on perhaps 60% of those downs, so he should be happy with that.

...and for Fantasy Owners a good value if he's cheap enough.

The Browns have too many running backs and wide receivers now, and Dorsey's biggest challenge with the skill players is finding ways to "max them out".

With the left tackle issue, the only offense he can't run is the traditional deep passing type from the pocket (unless he plans to use Fells like an extra tackle, which would be inefficient as hell; keeping a dangerous skill player on the bench).

And that left tackle thing will absolutely factor in to how Haley designs this 2018 Browns offense.

Duke Johnson fits right in there with Jarvis Landry, as they both get open quickly, and niether drops passes.  They're both ideally suited for a West Coast type passing scheme which gets the ball out of the quarterback's hands quickly.

As a running back, Duke adds the dimension of being a great outlet receiver (and pass-blocker).

Haley will also need to run the ball a lot to protect that left tackle.

He has Tyrod, with Mayfield right behind him, so he'll have those quarterbacks moving to the right on rollouts, run-pass options, and read-options

*One of the reasons why the read-option is all "the rage" nowadays is because so few teams have anybody anything like Joe Thomas at left tackle.  Did you know that?*

Anyway, Duke Johnson obviously fits all that perfectly as well (of course, so do Hyde and Chubb...)

If you have a brain, you like Dameion Ratley a lot for the future, and if you've paid attention, Rashard Higgins has earned your respect.  Corey Coleman has flashed some consistency and reliability, and the sky is the limit for Callaway (okay apologies to the other guys who have done really well in preseason, but there are just so many of you with bright careers ahead of you, I can't include you all).

But right now, proven, known, reliable players who are "playmakers" will float to the top of Todd Haley's personnel packages, and Duke Johnson is unmistakably one of these.

*Running backs are different: They often need work on pass-protection and/or receiving, but the running part is mostly ennate (instinctive), so Nick Chubb is mostly ready to rock right now--see earlier post that includes catching passes---not sure on the pass protection yet*

Njoku is dropping passes right now, like he did last preseason, but he mostly delivered when the lights came on, so I'm not freaking out yet on him.

Somewhat to my surprise, I've been hearing from smart people that he's already become a viable in-line blocker, which is a big plus.  

It presents another monkey wrench for opposing defensive coordinators.  They can't treat him like an oversized wide receiver now when they see him in the huddle, because he might actually line up at tight end and be part of a stampede meant to trample a smaller "crew" of defenders, or seal off the edge for a deep pass (getting below periscope depth here time to come up a little).

Ignoring Hyde, Chubb, and labels, Haley's most reliable skill players are Landry, Duke, and (yes dammit) Gordon.  He will want these three guys on the field as often as possible in 2018.

The second tier of these guys by default has to include Njoku (although as a receiver DeValve has been more reliable; on the second tier you can trade some reliability for the big play potentials by the way). And (for now) Higgins yes Higgins.

Higgins proved in 2017 that he can be more than just a "possession" guy, but he's always been pretty reliable, and is reportedly bigger and stronger now.

Coleman, Ratley, Callaway etc have yet to earn the trust of these quarterbacks.  All three are potential game-breakers, but Haley can't rank them ahead of these other guys until they prove they can be trusted.

(That's part of "developing a quarterback" as a "quarterback guru", by the way: making sure his receivers will be where they're supposed to be and won't drop the ball?  Helps a quarterback a LOT, believe it or not!  HONEST!)

I would expect the "core" offense to include Njoku, Duke, Josh, and Jarvis.  With the quarterback and offensive line, that's ten players, leaving one slot.

That will often be Chubb or Hyde, but could also be Fells, DeValve, Coleman/Callaway, or John Doe.

Naturally, some rotation will happen, depending on matchups, injuries, down and distance, so one or even two of the four "base" guys might be on the bench a lot of times, but these are the quarterback's best friends, and Dorsey will make sure that at least two of them are on the field on every down.

Josh Gordon will key this thing.  No cornerback in the NFL can cover him without help, and if Josh and his quarterback don't see that deep safety drifting his way, he WILL go deep.

You can roll the dice a little with a 5'11" Callaway or Coleman, because his smaller catch radius makes it tougher for a quarteback to catch him in-stride, and possible for the chasing corner to jump up and deflect it.

You can't do that with Gordon.  If Gordon gets by you, it's game over, unless the quarterback can't hit the broad side of a barn (see Kizer, Deshone...okay and Kessler, Cody).

Dameion Ratley might well grow into something like Josh Gordon, but none of the other guys on this roster can...although Higgins can do some of it (too deep you're welcome).

Dez Bryant alert: He might extract his head and sign with the Ravens.  I hope so (more on that later).

Colon Illuminati Cowherd just cracks me up sometimes.  "Obviously, nothing happens in Cleveland that Jimmy Haslam doesn't have his hands on" what!?!

This ass-hat has Haslam up there with Jerry Jones based on what? "Let's go get him" in re Manziel?  The guy has issues:  He yammers about how Haslam is a Tennessee booster and how they suck, and somehow implies that he's trying to...oh good grief it's too convoluted to even repeat there is something wrong with Colon Cowherd okay?

Anyway, he was interviewing Eric Mangini, and I did get some useful stuff out of Mangini (who is more like Paul Ryan than Baker Mayfield, if you know what I mean):

Mangini expects Mayfield to take over at some point during the season, but it wasn't for football reasons:

"If the seats aren't filled up, you need to do something to get those fans back.  What better way to do that than starting your first round quarterback?"

Good point! And this is indeed where most owners would pick up the phone and give orders.

*Cowherd is delusional about Haslam micromanaging; in fact Jimmy seems to be keeping his hands to himself, but what Mangini said made sense*

They were hypothesising 3-3 after 6 games.

Hat tip to Cowherd for allowing for 3 wins, but they're wrong.  Permabashers aside, the Browns fan base would be giddy at that point.

Moreover, they would be against switching quarterbacks (and maybe screwing everything up yet again.)

Eric Mangini was HERE for two years as a Head Coach--how can he underestimate us like that?  3-3 after 6 games and we're not filling seats? We want change for change's sake?

I know I pick on a lot of you and call you idiots and morons and stuff, but the vast majority of you are SENTIENT, and I'm tired of being insulted.

Lately on the road (or near Cleveland), I've found it hard to find Browns fans, but a few of those who are have actually lasted for as many as 6 minutes talking to me about them before their eyes glass over and they're trying to change the subject or talk to somebody else.

Still, they know stuff like good/great players and coaches matter, and they aren't superstitious...

3-3? We're not showing up, and doing "May-field" chants? Give me a fkng break (and f u Eric Tonedeaf).

But that's the consensus of these guys.  It's not if Baker Mayfield takes over, but when.

As you guys know, I agree with Cris Carter and PFF and a bunch of other real experts that John Dorsey picked the best quarterback in the last several drafts, but I can't fathom the implicit anti-Tyrod prejudice.

Wait a fkng minute here has Tyrod ever had an arsenal like he has here? Isn't he a year older and better? Didn't he take a (much) less talented team to the playoffs last season?

Okay Baker Mayfield is the future, and will transcend Tyrod, but he CAN NOT be more than marginally better than Tyrod as a rookie--why the hell do you insist on benching Tyrod Taylor any time soon!?!

The most reasonable projection I've heard is "once the Browns are out of contention" (which assumes a lot, because the Bungles and Ratbirds aren't in the 2018 Browns' league).

I don't expect the most talented well-coached team in the AFC North to be out of playoff contention before week 14, if at all.

I said "well-coached" instead of "best-coached" because I have to give the Ravens and Steelers their props, but our guys can toe the line with their guys ok?  (Hue doesn't count why does nobody else get that?)

I'm becoming a huge Tyrod Taylor fan here, because I can't handle insanity or injustice, and respect the hell out of guys who clawed their way up from nowhere and EARNED everything the hard way.

After all that hard work and struggle, here are a bunch of people eager to brush him off like he's dandruff.  It really pisses me off I thought this was America, you know?

Tyrod Taylor in 2018 is better than Baker Mayfield, and gives the Browns an even better chance to win than he did the Bills last season.

This time, Hue Jackson is right.  Baker Mayfield can deal with it.  Why can't you?

No comments: