Josh Allen definitely made an impression on me with his second half performance in the Senior Bowl. You have to take this seriously. He not only threw two immaculate bucket passes for touchdowns, but completed most of his passes.
Baker Mayfield didn't do well, but Mike White lit it up too, and this 5th round projection, Kyle Lauletta, stole the show with 192 yards and three TDs.
These three certainly helped themselves, but it's one piece of the puzzle.
Nobody is going to care about Mayfield's bad game. Not with what he's done in his career. The Branch Allenians will proclaim Josh Allen a lock for first overall now---not so fast, for the same reason in reverse.
Mike White and Lauletta will probably jump up a round or even two, however. These two really proved something in this game!
Unfortunately, the Cleveland Browns aren't one of the teams that can make anybody but Darnold, Rosen, Allen (I guess...)or Mayfield their top targets...uh...I don't think...
I mean, that's what everybody says, right?
Let's go outside that box and actually think with our brains, shall we?
This offseason is unique and perhaps unprecedented for quarterbacks. In addition to this flood of draftable quarterbacks who project as NFL starters, you have two of three Viking quarterbacks, Cousins, Smith, Tyrod Taylor, and maybe the great AJ McCarron flooding the market as well.
Draft-wise, I remember last season, many talent guys said that none of the quarterbacks (including Watson) belonged above the bottom third of the first round. The year before that, niether Goff nor Wentz even belonged IN the first round.
Don't shoot the messenger. I thought it was stupid at the time and said so.
Anyway, this season it's the opposite. Ask any ten scouts who they like best, and you might get four or more different answers, and each of them will tell you they're worthy of the first overall pick.
So how many teams need quarterbacks? The Giants need Eli Manning Jr., but might or might not use their second overall pick on him. The Colts might trade out of their third overall pick to a quarterback-hungry team, but expect Andrew Luck to return healthy themselves.
The Broncos definitely need one, but might go with Tyrod Taylor (they have exceptional offensive weapons and a still-good defense, with weaknesses on their offensive line. Taylor could be just what the doctor ordered for them. Elway could trade down and still get a stud offensive lineman, and still nab a quarterback for the future if they want later.)
I can't go through every draft slot here, but in general, those teams drafting in the bottom third don't need quarterbacks. The Steelers and Saints are two exceptions, and now so are the Patriots...
Damn this is getting complicated! I don't envy John Dorsey. Unless he uses one or four on a quarterback, he's taking a risk.
For argument's sake, let's say he knows he has Alex Smith, and that he can extend (or concievably franchise or tender him).
This makes "pro readiness" irrelevant in the draft, so he can prioritize talent and upside. (For you Branch Allenians, by the way, Dorsey already has Kizer, with most of a season's worth of NFL experience, entering only his second season. These two quarterbacks might as well be clones).
It is remotely possible that Dorsey thinks that two or three quarterbacks have what he wants (White and Falk could be two), and will be available low in the first round. If he likes the menu enough, he can take what he gets (and trade up for the last one on his list if he needs to).
That was mainly to try to pry you out of your MKC box and consider alternatives objectively.
Depending on how these quarterbacks rise and fall as the combine and Pro Days come and go, this situation will change a whole lot, but look:
Luke Falk, Mason Rudolph, and (I think) Lamar Jackson were considered by some first round prospects even last season, and most of them were ranked above Mitch Trubisky. Now Josh Allen, Rosen, Darnold, and Mayfield have elbowed them aside.
Well, do you realize I just listed SEVEN quarterbacks here? There are only 32 picks in the first round, ok? Whoever signs Bridgewater, Taylor, or possibly McCarron probably won't draft a QB in the first round (I left out Cousins because they will be QB-hunting whether they transition him or not).
In the box thinking says you have to zero in on one quarterback, and regard the rest of them as a buncha bumbs.
Most years, it actually works out that way, as high first rounders succeed at a much higher rate. But (read this three times, slowly) this isn't most years.
As you know, I want Baker Mayfield. The hell with his height and history, he's got "it" in spades. But wasn't Falk almost as good in the Senior Bowl practices? Didn't Mike White tear up the Senior Bowl game?
Listen to me: Eli Manning, Rodgers, Brees, Rottenburgers, Wilson, Goff, Wentz, Newton: Could you tolerate the least of these as your quarterback?
Well, we could well be looking at all those guys in this one draft!!!
Mayfield looks like Brees to me, but if you twisted my arm I could make do with Big Ben or Goff DO YOU UNDERSTAND?
No doubt, quarterback is by far the most important position in football, but let's not go overboard just because the Browns haven't had one for 20 years, ok?
Can you name the Georgia quarterback who just "beat" Baker Mayfield in the Rose Bowl, or the Alabama QB who won the Championship? Joe Flacco won a Superbowl. Big Ben won one in his rookie season, and he SUCKED. Alex Smith has a weak playoff history, but if you blame HIM for it, you need a brain transplant. Wilson won one. Newton didn't. Brees won one, but that's it. His fault?
Can you blame anything on Aaron Rodgers?
Jim McMahon won a Superbowl. I could go on and on with this, but the REST OF THE TEAM MATTERS TOO!
Still with me here? Imnsh opinion, Josh Allen is not in play here, but Darnold and Mayfield are, at one and four. However, it's also possible, in this specific draft, that John Dorsey thinks he can nab a very talented quarterback later.
He could trade down, perhaps multiple times, and still nail down one of the quarterbacks on his list, while piling up future high draft picks (you know, per DePodesta's crazy "moneyball" plan?)
He could do this and still load up with Joe Thomas II, Laquon Barkley, AND that super-defensive back (or an elite edge-rusher).
...You still don't get it. In the last draft, or the 2019 draft, quarterbacks in this draft would project a lot higher than they do in this one. In this draft, guys like Luke Falk project into the second or even third round!
...is any of this sinking in?
I assume not. Well, maybe Dorsey will save you guys from stroking out by just taking Darnold or Mayfield first or fourth, as he might indeed think one of these guys is just plain that much better than the other guys.
I'm just trying to make you T H I N K. Personally, I think Mayfield is just plain THE best QB in this draft (better than Darnold).
I think he's a badass version of Drew Brees. He's also the closest thing to a sure thing in this draft.
...but if I could load up on ancillary talent and future picks, I could settle for the next Goff or Big Ben or whatever...just sayin.
Let me try one last time here: In 2018, it's raining quarterbacks. You don't neccessarily use a top five pick on a quarterback this year, because there will be franchise potential in the second, or even third round!
...yeah I hear ya. Well, I tried.
Sunday, January 28, 2018
Saturday, January 27, 2018
Sr Quarterbacks, Strategery, Haley, and the Browns
The Senior Bowl practices shed some light on some of the quarterbacks in the running for the Browns first overall, fourth, or thirty third overall draft pick.
Per PFF, Jim Miller, Pat Kirwan, and just about everybody else, Baker Mayfield performed the best, but not by a wide margin. The guy who came in a close second was Luke Falk.
Like Baker, Luke ran an air-raid offense at Washington State (a strike against both of them). Luke also suffered a concussion, broke his wrist, and missed his Bowl game due to injury.
He played most of his season with a brace on that broken wrist, and still completed 67% of his passes (last season it was 70%, and he's over 68% for his career).
I've read some scouting reports on this guy that say that in that offense he should have had an even higher completion percentage, and that he throws "mush-balls".
Well, this pseudo-scout needs to take that to Jim Miller, who was extremely impressed with his pinpoint accuracy and anticipation, and pointed out that his ball had the highest rpm (over 700 rpm) of all the Senior Bowl quarterbacks.
The basher also seemed oblivious to the broken wrist and brace. I prefer analysts who analyze, myself.
Falk's situational accuracy hardly varies; he's still completing 67% vs blitzes. Between 2016 and 2017, he increased his efficiency after play-fakes by over 25%.
He reportedly impressed his interviewers with his football IQ.
Bucky Brooks, Mike Mayock, et al compare Falk to Jarod Goff (although Mayock thinks Goff has a stronger arm). Other guys, like the one I mentioned, think he's a bumb.
Falk is 6'4"-plus, and thin at a little over 210 lbs right now, but who cares? As Jim Miller points out, he has room on his frame to add twenty pounds, and Falk says that once his wrist-brace comes off and he can work out again, he's going to get bigger.
The people worth listening to say that Baker Mayfield has a stronger arm, is more athletic, has a quicker release, and is better able to salvage broken plays. He's also accomplished what he's accomplished on a bigger stage.
And I repeat that Mayfield's almost double-digit yards-per-attempt number (while completing over 70%) is just amazing.
Still, Falk could be a massive sleeper.
The third best quarterback was my man Mike White, but Falk and Mayfield were a cut above him, according to my expert witnesses.
The Branch-Allenians are predictably oblivious to Josh Allen's predictably poor performance, and are telling you about his "muzzle velocity" (admittedly ungodly; over 72 mph) and perfect placement on a couple deep passes. In reality, Mayfield, Falk, White, and maybe a couple others were better every day and for the week.
As I've mentioned, big twelve (and air-raid) quaterbacks have a terrible history in the NFL, (notable exception Goff), and this is one of the reasons why Falk and Mayfield are getting dissed.
But my experts think that Baker Mayfield and Luke Falk could, like Goff, succeed.
Falk has the "NFL size", and a much stronger arm than his predecessors. Mayfield is short, but (according to Jim Miller) extremely polished, makes fast decisions, and in most respects is ready to play in the NFL.
Jim likes Falk's mechanics too, by the way.
Terry Pluto once again says "what he (meaning my humble self) said!", but as usual did more homework and provided evidence to supportmy our case.
Here, Terry agrees with me that Hue showed some real brains recruiting Todd Haley and handing him the keys. I have to repeat, for a guy who himself was considered a great offensive coordinator, this shows a lot of brain power.
Most of us humans have egos which interefere with clear thinking. We all want to think we're smarter than everybody else, are worried about what others think of us, want to impress everybody, etc.
It's difficult to step back from that, even for the majority of intelligence analysts (we all want to be right, too).
Hue Jackson telling Todd Haley (or anyone else) that he could install his own offense and then run it is really imressive to me, and exceedingly rare among NFL Head Coaches, who are usually insecure powermad control freaks.
Good for you, Hue! I'm a fan again!
Terry also sees the strangeness of the Josh Allen mania, and seems to like Mayfield better.
As Terry says, we have more to hear from Darnold and Rosen.
I like Darnold a lot, and as you know don't like Rosen at all.
Darnold does look and move a lot like more like Carson Wentz than Josh Allen does, but people are getting out of hand with these comparisons:
Carson Wentz ran a pro offense in college, so he had a mental head start. Darnold and the other guys who matter will have to start from scratch.
Oh yeah sorry. Josh Allen's offense is more advanced, so he'll have a shallower learning curve...and will still be inaccurate.
No listen to me here: Josh Allen completes just over half the passes he throws. Darnold completes a little over two out of three, and Baker Mayfield is less than 4% away from 3 out of 4, with the highest yards per-attempt of all of them...by 2 yards(?)!!!
This is between a 1 out of 2 passer and a 3 out of 4 passer in some minds (including Mel Kiper's?)
For me (and almost certainly Dorsey), it's between Darnold and Mayfield at the top of the draft, and (dammit) Luke Falk later.
Here we go: Pat Shurmer is taking over the Giants (and I bet he does a great job). He says Eli Manning can play forever. That's a lie. They'll draft his successor for sure in this draft.
This quarterback class is extremely deep. Luke Falk was a potential first round pick in 2016 had he come out, as was Mason Rudolph. Many are projecting Lamar Jackson in the top ten, and here we got this Branch-Allenian thing going on!
Oh yeah: the Kirk Cousins bidding war is libel to get outta hand, and no matter how much cap space he has, John Dorsey won't need Paul DePodesta to tell him when to fold and cash out. Alex Smith is the likeliest new Browns quarterback.
Lots of variables here:
Smith is 34, and smart. Dorsey will want to extend him, even if he plans to start his successor in 2019, but will Smith make that deal, or "bet on himself" and test free agency in 2019?
Maybe not if Dorsey guarantees him all of 21 mil for 2019 and 15 mil in 2020 (by which time he'll be 37).
If Smith takes the Browns to the playoffs in 2018 (as he would expect to), that contract makes him tradeable to a team needing a starter. If he gets injured, he still gets paid. And it would be painful to cut him loose (too much dead money).
I think Dorsey will not just trade for Smith, but extend him.
What will it cost? Because of the depth of this draft class, the lame-duck contract, Smith's age, the other available free agents, and the fact that everybody knows the Chiefs have cap issues and have to dump Smith's contract, deprive them of the leverage a lot of you think they have.
The highest pick Dorsey will need to cough up will be one of his two lower second rounders. The rest could be a couple day 3 picks.
But I digress: The Giants (in reality) think Eli will last 2-3 more years, so they might or might not use their top pick on a quarterback, and might want to grab superback LaQuon Barkley.
This makes them the biggest threat to the Browns in this draft:
They could nab a quarterback, OR the consensus-best overall player in this draft with their top pick, and if it's Barkley, then they probobly target somebody like Falk in the second round.
What should Dorsey do?
It's high stakes poker, you people. It depends on how strong he thinks his hand is:
If he's willing to "settle for" one of three quarterbacks at fourth overall, then he obviously drafts Barkley first. If he's stuck on one specific quarterback, he has to take him first overall, and cross his fingers.
He's still in the catbird seat, since if Barkley is gone, he can draft that swiss army defensive back or Joe Thomas II or even another elite edge-rusher at 4, and a really good running back later.
Dorsey could also surprise everybody (except me) and wait to draft his future quarterback (maybe Falk) later...
Just spitballin here. I just like Falk and Darrius Guice a lot more now, and know they'll come cheap in this draft.
There is also hope, now that Todd Haley is taking over the offense, that Isaiah Crowell will consider sticking around.
Now that Hue Jackson's under/misuse of him has deprived him of leverage, he won't be too expensive.
Contrary to some really ignorant pseudo-analysts opinions, LaVeon Belle, like Crowell, is a prototype one-cut back meant to exploit inside zone-blocking.
Well, Todd Haley USED zone-blocking to help Belle out!!!
Belle is famous for his patience; for "waiting for his blocks to develop" before darting forward.
Isaiah Crowell is the same kind of running back! Hue Jackson never used him this way, but Todd Haley will, if he stays.
Haley should also use Corey Coleman exactly the way he used the shorter, lighter, slower Antonio Brown (ok well you need a quarterback for that, but he should HAVE one).
This is different for Haley, however, because he never had a Josh Gordon before, not to mention a tight end like Njoku.
Once he has a real quarterback, Gordon will be the primary weapon, but Coleman and Njoku will take what's left.
I'm telling you right now: The Browns need to resolve these quarterback and running back issues, but when they do, Todd Haley will wreak havoc in 2018.
I've been wrong a lot before, but I will be right this time, I think for sure maybe, and you can take that to the bank if you can make it there.
Per PFF, Jim Miller, Pat Kirwan, and just about everybody else, Baker Mayfield performed the best, but not by a wide margin. The guy who came in a close second was Luke Falk.
Like Baker, Luke ran an air-raid offense at Washington State (a strike against both of them). Luke also suffered a concussion, broke his wrist, and missed his Bowl game due to injury.
He played most of his season with a brace on that broken wrist, and still completed 67% of his passes (last season it was 70%, and he's over 68% for his career).
I've read some scouting reports on this guy that say that in that offense he should have had an even higher completion percentage, and that he throws "mush-balls".
Well, this pseudo-scout needs to take that to Jim Miller, who was extremely impressed with his pinpoint accuracy and anticipation, and pointed out that his ball had the highest rpm (over 700 rpm) of all the Senior Bowl quarterbacks.
The basher also seemed oblivious to the broken wrist and brace. I prefer analysts who analyze, myself.
Falk's situational accuracy hardly varies; he's still completing 67% vs blitzes. Between 2016 and 2017, he increased his efficiency after play-fakes by over 25%.
He reportedly impressed his interviewers with his football IQ.
Bucky Brooks, Mike Mayock, et al compare Falk to Jarod Goff (although Mayock thinks Goff has a stronger arm). Other guys, like the one I mentioned, think he's a bumb.
Falk is 6'4"-plus, and thin at a little over 210 lbs right now, but who cares? As Jim Miller points out, he has room on his frame to add twenty pounds, and Falk says that once his wrist-brace comes off and he can work out again, he's going to get bigger.
The people worth listening to say that Baker Mayfield has a stronger arm, is more athletic, has a quicker release, and is better able to salvage broken plays. He's also accomplished what he's accomplished on a bigger stage.
And I repeat that Mayfield's almost double-digit yards-per-attempt number (while completing over 70%) is just amazing.
Still, Falk could be a massive sleeper.
The third best quarterback was my man Mike White, but Falk and Mayfield were a cut above him, according to my expert witnesses.
The Branch-Allenians are predictably oblivious to Josh Allen's predictably poor performance, and are telling you about his "muzzle velocity" (admittedly ungodly; over 72 mph) and perfect placement on a couple deep passes. In reality, Mayfield, Falk, White, and maybe a couple others were better every day and for the week.
As I've mentioned, big twelve (and air-raid) quaterbacks have a terrible history in the NFL, (notable exception Goff), and this is one of the reasons why Falk and Mayfield are getting dissed.
But my experts think that Baker Mayfield and Luke Falk could, like Goff, succeed.
Falk has the "NFL size", and a much stronger arm than his predecessors. Mayfield is short, but (according to Jim Miller) extremely polished, makes fast decisions, and in most respects is ready to play in the NFL.
Jim likes Falk's mechanics too, by the way.
Terry Pluto once again says "what he (meaning my humble self) said!", but as usual did more homework and provided evidence to support
Here, Terry agrees with me that Hue showed some real brains recruiting Todd Haley and handing him the keys. I have to repeat, for a guy who himself was considered a great offensive coordinator, this shows a lot of brain power.
Most of us humans have egos which interefere with clear thinking. We all want to think we're smarter than everybody else, are worried about what others think of us, want to impress everybody, etc.
It's difficult to step back from that, even for the majority of intelligence analysts (we all want to be right, too).
Hue Jackson telling Todd Haley (or anyone else) that he could install his own offense and then run it is really imressive to me, and exceedingly rare among NFL Head Coaches, who are usually insecure powermad control freaks.
Good for you, Hue! I'm a fan again!
Terry also sees the strangeness of the Josh Allen mania, and seems to like Mayfield better.
As Terry says, we have more to hear from Darnold and Rosen.
I like Darnold a lot, and as you know don't like Rosen at all.
Darnold does look and move a lot like more like Carson Wentz than Josh Allen does, but people are getting out of hand with these comparisons:
Carson Wentz ran a pro offense in college, so he had a mental head start. Darnold and the other guys who matter will have to start from scratch.
Oh yeah sorry. Josh Allen's offense is more advanced, so he'll have a shallower learning curve...and will still be inaccurate.
No listen to me here: Josh Allen completes just over half the passes he throws. Darnold completes a little over two out of three, and Baker Mayfield is less than 4% away from 3 out of 4, with the highest yards per-attempt of all of them...by 2 yards(?)!!!
This is between a 1 out of 2 passer and a 3 out of 4 passer in some minds (including Mel Kiper's?)
For me (and almost certainly Dorsey), it's between Darnold and Mayfield at the top of the draft, and (dammit) Luke Falk later.
Here we go: Pat Shurmer is taking over the Giants (and I bet he does a great job). He says Eli Manning can play forever. That's a lie. They'll draft his successor for sure in this draft.
This quarterback class is extremely deep. Luke Falk was a potential first round pick in 2016 had he come out, as was Mason Rudolph. Many are projecting Lamar Jackson in the top ten, and here we got this Branch-Allenian thing going on!
Oh yeah: the Kirk Cousins bidding war is libel to get outta hand, and no matter how much cap space he has, John Dorsey won't need Paul DePodesta to tell him when to fold and cash out. Alex Smith is the likeliest new Browns quarterback.
Lots of variables here:
Smith is 34, and smart. Dorsey will want to extend him, even if he plans to start his successor in 2019, but will Smith make that deal, or "bet on himself" and test free agency in 2019?
Maybe not if Dorsey guarantees him all of 21 mil for 2019 and 15 mil in 2020 (by which time he'll be 37).
If Smith takes the Browns to the playoffs in 2018 (as he would expect to), that contract makes him tradeable to a team needing a starter. If he gets injured, he still gets paid. And it would be painful to cut him loose (too much dead money).
I think Dorsey will not just trade for Smith, but extend him.
What will it cost? Because of the depth of this draft class, the lame-duck contract, Smith's age, the other available free agents, and the fact that everybody knows the Chiefs have cap issues and have to dump Smith's contract, deprive them of the leverage a lot of you think they have.
The highest pick Dorsey will need to cough up will be one of his two lower second rounders. The rest could be a couple day 3 picks.
But I digress: The Giants (in reality) think Eli will last 2-3 more years, so they might or might not use their top pick on a quarterback, and might want to grab superback LaQuon Barkley.
This makes them the biggest threat to the Browns in this draft:
They could nab a quarterback, OR the consensus-best overall player in this draft with their top pick, and if it's Barkley, then they probobly target somebody like Falk in the second round.
What should Dorsey do?
It's high stakes poker, you people. It depends on how strong he thinks his hand is:
If he's willing to "settle for" one of three quarterbacks at fourth overall, then he obviously drafts Barkley first. If he's stuck on one specific quarterback, he has to take him first overall, and cross his fingers.
He's still in the catbird seat, since if Barkley is gone, he can draft that swiss army defensive back or Joe Thomas II or even another elite edge-rusher at 4, and a really good running back later.
Dorsey could also surprise everybody (except me) and wait to draft his future quarterback (maybe Falk) later...
Just spitballin here. I just like Falk and Darrius Guice a lot more now, and know they'll come cheap in this draft.
There is also hope, now that Todd Haley is taking over the offense, that Isaiah Crowell will consider sticking around.
Now that Hue Jackson's under/misuse of him has deprived him of leverage, he won't be too expensive.
Contrary to some really ignorant pseudo-analysts opinions, LaVeon Belle, like Crowell, is a prototype one-cut back meant to exploit inside zone-blocking.
Well, Todd Haley USED zone-blocking to help Belle out!!!
Belle is famous for his patience; for "waiting for his blocks to develop" before darting forward.
Isaiah Crowell is the same kind of running back! Hue Jackson never used him this way, but Todd Haley will, if he stays.
Haley should also use Corey Coleman exactly the way he used the shorter, lighter, slower Antonio Brown (ok well you need a quarterback for that, but he should HAVE one).
This is different for Haley, however, because he never had a Josh Gordon before, not to mention a tight end like Njoku.
Once he has a real quarterback, Gordon will be the primary weapon, but Coleman and Njoku will take what's left.
I'm telling you right now: The Browns need to resolve these quarterback and running back issues, but when they do, Todd Haley will wreak havoc in 2018.
I've been wrong a lot before, but I will be right this time, I think for sure maybe, and you can take that to the bank if you can make it there.
Wednesday, January 24, 2018
Hue Jackson's Brains, the Patriots Model. Yep!
Hue Jackson obviously reads my Blog, because he kept quoting me almost verbatum in this interview with MKC.
My opinion of Hue ratcheted up when I heard what he said about giving Todd Haley control of the offense (delegating), because that's really hard for the majority of Head Coaches to do.
That's because they're control freaks and think they're smarter than everybody else.
When the Sith Lord coached the Browns, he was a micromanager. Assistant coaches from that staff said he tried to be everywhere, running everything in person.
Really, he still did a good job, as the team didn't really cave in until the news was leaked that it was moving to Baltimore. Bill had them competing without a lot of overall talent, with Testaverde as well as with Bernie K.
When he got his next shot in New England, Bill Belichick was kind of the opposite kind of Head Coach as he was in Cleveland; much more like his mentor, Bill Parcells.
He found (and often trained) quality assistant coaches, and let them do their jobs. He became a General, instead of 8 lieutenants all at once.
Hue Jackson, as I had hoped, is indeed smart enough to delegate, like Pacells and Belichick. Of course, he had a head start on the Sith Lord in that department. Hue isn't hyperactive and doesn't have OCD like Bill did. (With Belichick it wasn't about ego, just control. He simply couldn't trust anyone else).
Hue has a different personality entirely.
If he does follow the Bill's example, he'll pay more attention to his position coaches and youngest players.
No doubt, behind closed doors, the Sith Lord tells his young apprentice coaches what they need to work on, etc. Hue can absolutely do this, especially with Kizer and the rookie quarterback they'll draft.
(Note: New QB coach Zampeze failed in his first stint at offensive coordinator, but is a highly respected groomer of young quarterbacks. Hue Jackson is given credit for Andy Dalton and AJ McCarron, but Zampeze was their position coach ok?)
Terry Pluto restated a bunch of stuff I've said about various quarterbacks. I include this link only to show you that I said it first, and if you like Pluto you should like me too.
Joe Gilbert did a fine job grading and analyzing the Browns 2017 defensive ends, and in calling passrushing D E P T H the biggest need at that position. (Gilbert is now one of my top guys. I rarely need to correct him, and learn things from him.)
This Josh Allen stuff is getting outta hand. I simply must be missing something, because he's suddenly listed by a sload of pundits right with Rosen and Darnold (and naturally above Mayfield) as a potential first overall pick.
I haven't checked up on the Senior Bowl practices, but expect a lot of these guys to see what they intend to see:
Allen looked like he's been under center his whole life! Second-longest completion of the day! Would have been a TD! Evaded pressure twice, could have run with it! Completed pass off his back foot!
Where is this coming from? What am I missing?
Throw most of what John Dorsey (and every other GM) is saying out the window in re draftable prospects. He will love them all (equally) in public.
But his more general statements about what he looks for in quarterbacks hold a little more water.
Got your hip-waders on? Did you bring a snorkel? Take your smart pills? Dorsey says the most important thing for a quarterback is that he's "a winner": He doesn't mean it. It's important, but not the top priority. An elite QB on a crappy team with a crappy defense and crappy coach can't win much.
Winning is no doubt important, but NOT "the most important thing"...unless Dorsey is a lot dumber than I think he is.
He specifies "deep accuracy", rather than just plain accuracy.
The first thing he did when he became GM of the Chiefs was to trade for Alex Smith. He's deliberately disinformimg competitors that he wants a mad bomber.
In my last post, I asked why Dorsey would bother lying when he has the first and fourth overall picks. I was wrong there:
He could be setting up a trade.
Grab your snorkels: The "winner" part is intended to be interpreted as "smoke and mirrors": "He's trying to make us think he wants Mayfield".
The "deep accuracy" (vs just plain accuracy) statement is intended to be interpreted as a freudian slip, betraying Dorsey's true draft targets.
If I'm right about this, they've got somebody like me writing scripts for them (and probably in charge of "leaks").
I personally don't believe that John Dorsey will draft a quarterback who has completed less than 65% of his passes in his most recent season, and that he CAN not ignore the yards-per-attempt "moneyball" part of this equation either.
While Baker Mayfield is an obvious favorite here, so is Mike White (see last post). Mayfield is obviously the best, statistically, but White is much taller, and exhibits the same aggressive traits.
If John Dorsey really prefers either of these quarterbacks over the overrated three, he could find himself in an ideal position to trade down and still get one of them.
John Elway seems to need a quarterback, and has the fifth overall pick. Unfortunately, I assume he's not going to trade up, because he WAS a quarterback. He might be targeting the same two QBs himself.
It's too early, but with all this Josh Allen hype, could the Giants fall for it? Or just trade up to make sure they nail Rosen or Darnold down?
I kinda doubt it.
This is where the big brass balls come in:
The Colts (at 3rd overall) have Andrew Luck (ideally) returning healthy, so it's assumed they won't target a quarterback. My own mock draft would have them drafting Saquon Barkley.
This is why I think that POSSIBLY John Dorsey might draft Barkley first overall (because he has to if he wants him), and Mayfield fourth...and if not that bumb Mike White later.
You people don't play poker or trade commodities or options, so you don't understand a lot of this stuff.
...but I'm as confused as you are right now. I myself brought up a running back who could become as lethal as Barkley after one season. I'm semi-guessing on Mike White.
But I can pretty much guarantee that John Dorsey will NOT draftDeshone Kizer Josh Allen first overall.
I'm emarrassed for Tony Rizzo, who said that he would always associate future Hall of Famer Joe Thomas with "losing". Joe isn't even a quarterback, for cryin out loud---how can any sane person blurt this garbage out!?!
And Rizzo clearly thinks he'll eat Big Joe's lunch as a broadcaster...
I never took Rizzo seriously, and this is why. Thomas knows what he's talking about. Rizzo does not.
Tony was unwise to pick this fight. He can't baffle 'em with bullshit his way out of it. It doesn't matter how long Rizzo has been getting paid to blabber about sports. If he toes the line with Joe Thomas, he'd better bring a toe tag.
My opinion of Hue ratcheted up when I heard what he said about giving Todd Haley control of the offense (delegating), because that's really hard for the majority of Head Coaches to do.
That's because they're control freaks and think they're smarter than everybody else.
When the Sith Lord coached the Browns, he was a micromanager. Assistant coaches from that staff said he tried to be everywhere, running everything in person.
Really, he still did a good job, as the team didn't really cave in until the news was leaked that it was moving to Baltimore. Bill had them competing without a lot of overall talent, with Testaverde as well as with Bernie K.
When he got his next shot in New England, Bill Belichick was kind of the opposite kind of Head Coach as he was in Cleveland; much more like his mentor, Bill Parcells.
He found (and often trained) quality assistant coaches, and let them do their jobs. He became a General, instead of 8 lieutenants all at once.
Hue Jackson, as I had hoped, is indeed smart enough to delegate, like Pacells and Belichick. Of course, he had a head start on the Sith Lord in that department. Hue isn't hyperactive and doesn't have OCD like Bill did. (With Belichick it wasn't about ego, just control. He simply couldn't trust anyone else).
Hue has a different personality entirely.
If he does follow the Bill's example, he'll pay more attention to his position coaches and youngest players.
No doubt, behind closed doors, the Sith Lord tells his young apprentice coaches what they need to work on, etc. Hue can absolutely do this, especially with Kizer and the rookie quarterback they'll draft.
(Note: New QB coach Zampeze failed in his first stint at offensive coordinator, but is a highly respected groomer of young quarterbacks. Hue Jackson is given credit for Andy Dalton and AJ McCarron, but Zampeze was their position coach ok?)
Terry Pluto restated a bunch of stuff I've said about various quarterbacks. I include this link only to show you that I said it first, and if you like Pluto you should like me too.
Joe Gilbert did a fine job grading and analyzing the Browns 2017 defensive ends, and in calling passrushing D E P T H the biggest need at that position. (Gilbert is now one of my top guys. I rarely need to correct him, and learn things from him.)
This Josh Allen stuff is getting outta hand. I simply must be missing something, because he's suddenly listed by a sload of pundits right with Rosen and Darnold (and naturally above Mayfield) as a potential first overall pick.
I haven't checked up on the Senior Bowl practices, but expect a lot of these guys to see what they intend to see:
Allen looked like he's been under center his whole life! Second-longest completion of the day! Would have been a TD! Evaded pressure twice, could have run with it! Completed pass off his back foot!
Where is this coming from? What am I missing?
Throw most of what John Dorsey (and every other GM) is saying out the window in re draftable prospects. He will love them all (equally) in public.
But his more general statements about what he looks for in quarterbacks hold a little more water.
Got your hip-waders on? Did you bring a snorkel? Take your smart pills? Dorsey says the most important thing for a quarterback is that he's "a winner": He doesn't mean it. It's important, but not the top priority. An elite QB on a crappy team with a crappy defense and crappy coach can't win much.
Winning is no doubt important, but NOT "the most important thing"...unless Dorsey is a lot dumber than I think he is.
He specifies "deep accuracy", rather than just plain accuracy.
The first thing he did when he became GM of the Chiefs was to trade for Alex Smith. He's deliberately disinformimg competitors that he wants a mad bomber.
In my last post, I asked why Dorsey would bother lying when he has the first and fourth overall picks. I was wrong there:
He could be setting up a trade.
Grab your snorkels: The "winner" part is intended to be interpreted as "smoke and mirrors": "He's trying to make us think he wants Mayfield".
The "deep accuracy" (vs just plain accuracy) statement is intended to be interpreted as a freudian slip, betraying Dorsey's true draft targets.
If I'm right about this, they've got somebody like me writing scripts for them (and probably in charge of "leaks").
I personally don't believe that John Dorsey will draft a quarterback who has completed less than 65% of his passes in his most recent season, and that he CAN not ignore the yards-per-attempt "moneyball" part of this equation either.
While Baker Mayfield is an obvious favorite here, so is Mike White (see last post). Mayfield is obviously the best, statistically, but White is much taller, and exhibits the same aggressive traits.
If John Dorsey really prefers either of these quarterbacks over the overrated three, he could find himself in an ideal position to trade down and still get one of them.
John Elway seems to need a quarterback, and has the fifth overall pick. Unfortunately, I assume he's not going to trade up, because he WAS a quarterback. He might be targeting the same two QBs himself.
It's too early, but with all this Josh Allen hype, could the Giants fall for it? Or just trade up to make sure they nail Rosen or Darnold down?
I kinda doubt it.
This is where the big brass balls come in:
The Colts (at 3rd overall) have Andrew Luck (ideally) returning healthy, so it's assumed they won't target a quarterback. My own mock draft would have them drafting Saquon Barkley.
This is why I think that POSSIBLY John Dorsey might draft Barkley first overall (because he has to if he wants him), and Mayfield fourth...and if not that bumb Mike White later.
You people don't play poker or trade commodities or options, so you don't understand a lot of this stuff.
...but I'm as confused as you are right now. I myself brought up a running back who could become as lethal as Barkley after one season. I'm semi-guessing on Mike White.
But I can pretty much guarantee that John Dorsey will NOT draft
I'm emarrassed for Tony Rizzo, who said that he would always associate future Hall of Famer Joe Thomas with "losing". Joe isn't even a quarterback, for cryin out loud---how can any sane person blurt this garbage out!?!
And Rizzo clearly thinks he'll eat Big Joe's lunch as a broadcaster...
I never took Rizzo seriously, and this is why. Thomas knows what he's talking about. Rizzo does not.
Tony was unwise to pick this fight. He can't baffle 'em with bullshit his way out of it. It doesn't matter how long Rizzo has been getting paid to blabber about sports. If he toes the line with Joe Thomas, he'd better bring a toe tag.
Monday, January 22, 2018
Good News, QB Sleeper, and the Browns
I'm obviously quite happy about the Browns landing Todd Haley as the Browns' first offensive coordinator.
Here's hoping that Hue Fisher will take a hint from the Sith Lord in New England, and let him just do his job. I do like Hue personally, and kinda think he will.
Naturally, he will have discussions and make suggestions, but I don't think he'll try to override or micromanage Haley.
You can't argue with Haley's success throughout his career, including as a wide receivers' coach. Hue came to the Browns with a similar reputation, but I do feel that Hue is not going to trip over his ego here.
He can relax now, and sort of trouble-shoot. Help with Kizer and a rookie quarterback. His game-plans really weren't that bad. What was bad was the fact that he stopped running prematurely, didn't adapt to his offensive skill players (even after injuries), and threw most of his short passes to running backs only. And oh yeah: Stopped running the ball early, even when it was working, and even with a lead.
Haley, with Arizona and then the Steelers, ran balanced offenses. Even when he took over "the greatest show on turf" and had Kurt Warner, he made sure to run the ball to mitigate the passrush and set up play-action.
As you've probably read by now, Kurt Warner is a huge Haley fan (and you really need to take that seriously).
On the quarterback front, a new name has come up: Mike White (Western Kentucky, Senior Bowl participant).
The writer of one article says he's "heard" that John Dorsey is a big fan of White (so we can now report that as a confirmed fact originating from Dorsey himself right? And now we can talk "smoke and mirrors" since we know for sure that Dorsey leaked this himself on purpose for some inexplicable reason when he has the first and fourth overall picks good grief but I digress):
I checked White out somewhat, simply because smart people were talking him up, and think he might be a sleeper. He checks all the boxes, including accuracy. (57%!...on passes over 20 yards.)
His offense uses slants and crosses, and he demonstrates this type of accuracy just as he does vertical accuracy (see old post; these are two different skill-sets, and guys with both are special).
I always give "low level of competition" quarterbacks a second look, because I seem to be the only one who realizes that their offensive lines and receivers are only about as good as the defenses trying to stop them, so it's almost irrelevant.
It's very early right now, but so far, the negatives on Mike White are that he locks onto his receivers, and takes too many chances trying to hit tight windows in the middle of the field. After just a shallow scan, I can't find the rubber stamp "inconsistent accuracy when getting sacked or running for his life" bashing which is almost universal.
White's scouting reports that I've seen so far (if you add on the "inconsistent accuracy" bullshit) matches that of Mason Rudolph, except White apparently has a better arm, has better deep accuracy, and is more aggressive.
1: Is the "I heard" Dorsey likes him report valid? I have no idea, but wouldn't be surprised.
2: If true, what does it mean? Well, it means he likes him! More than Darnold or the other guys? Let's not leap to that conclusion, shall we not? (Remember when you "assume", you make an ass of y o u r s e l f).
However, what if my own not humble early first impression is correct, and Mike White is a big sleeper, who rightfully belongs with the overhyped quarterbacks in this draft?
Well, even with a strong Senior Bowl week, he could remain lost in the shuffle, and be available in the second round or later.
Kirk Cousins and Russell Wilson were fourth round afterthoughts. Aaron Rodgers was a low first rounder (and a lot of people thought that when Brett Favre left Green Bay several years later the Pack was doomed).
John Dorsey WILL sign a veteran quarterback to start immediately (no debate) this season. Right now, I do think that will be Alex Smith, as Kirk Cousins' asking price is utterly rediculous, and some idiot is libel to pay it.
As Terry Pluto agrees with what I've said, we can't figure out who died and declared A J McCarron or Tyrod Taylor franchise quarterbacks, and every Viking quarterback except Keenum comes with huge red flags.
And I take this Chase Daniels rumor with a pound of salt (but can't dismiss it completely. I'll investigate and get back to you).
Anyhoo, Dorsey will get a GOOD (or excellent) veteran quarterback in here (ready for the Steelers/Ravens/Bengals) for at least 2018.
With Kizer as the top backup (which he should have been in 2017 dammit), whoever Dorsey drafts will be glued to the bench as a rookie (like Kizer should have been dammit).
You know where I'm going here. I can hear you screaming "NOOO NOT AGAIN JUST DRAFT A QUARTERBACK FIRST OVERALL!"
I hear you, but you're not being rational:
1: John Dorsey isn't Sashi Brown or Ray Farmer or anybody else.
2: Talent is talent. Ryan Leaf was a "can't miss". Alex Smith was called a "bust" for half his career. Blake Bortles was called a bust until this season. Who was that Raiders can't miss who lasted about one season? (You can't remember either right?)
You don't draft a guy, "no madder wudd", regardless of what everybody else says, if you don't think he's "da man". You draft the guy YOU think is da man!
3: It's really hard to outsmart everybody else (Pat Kirwan says it's impossible, at least with quarterbacks), but if YOU think a Mike White has as much or more talent than the guys everybody else is slavering over, and you can get him a lot cheaper, you DO IT. DUH!!!
As I've said, it's early, and the Senior Bowl and more research might bring me back to Baker Mayfield (or something) again, but for the moment I favor trading down from number one and nailing down Laquon Barkley, and maybe trading down from number four too, and STILL getting a stud safety or cornerback or edge-rusher or LEFT tackle, and getting Mike White later.
A note on that: First round picks come with five year contracts, instead of four. If Dorsey hoses the Madding crowd out of even more draft picks, he can trade up to nail White down and get a 5th year out of it.
Nobody said John Dorsey can't do what Sashi Brown did yet again...I mean except for the DeShone Kizer part....
Here's hoping that Hue Fisher will take a hint from the Sith Lord in New England, and let him just do his job. I do like Hue personally, and kinda think he will.
Naturally, he will have discussions and make suggestions, but I don't think he'll try to override or micromanage Haley.
You can't argue with Haley's success throughout his career, including as a wide receivers' coach. Hue came to the Browns with a similar reputation, but I do feel that Hue is not going to trip over his ego here.
He can relax now, and sort of trouble-shoot. Help with Kizer and a rookie quarterback. His game-plans really weren't that bad. What was bad was the fact that he stopped running prematurely, didn't adapt to his offensive skill players (even after injuries), and threw most of his short passes to running backs only. And oh yeah: Stopped running the ball early, even when it was working, and even with a lead.
Haley, with Arizona and then the Steelers, ran balanced offenses. Even when he took over "the greatest show on turf" and had Kurt Warner, he made sure to run the ball to mitigate the passrush and set up play-action.
As you've probably read by now, Kurt Warner is a huge Haley fan (and you really need to take that seriously).
On the quarterback front, a new name has come up: Mike White (Western Kentucky, Senior Bowl participant).
The writer of one article says he's "heard" that John Dorsey is a big fan of White (so we can now report that as a confirmed fact originating from Dorsey himself right? And now we can talk "smoke and mirrors" since we know for sure that Dorsey leaked this himself on purpose for some inexplicable reason when he has the first and fourth overall picks good grief but I digress):
I checked White out somewhat, simply because smart people were talking him up, and think he might be a sleeper. He checks all the boxes, including accuracy. (57%!...on passes over 20 yards.)
His offense uses slants and crosses, and he demonstrates this type of accuracy just as he does vertical accuracy (see old post; these are two different skill-sets, and guys with both are special).
I always give "low level of competition" quarterbacks a second look, because I seem to be the only one who realizes that their offensive lines and receivers are only about as good as the defenses trying to stop them, so it's almost irrelevant.
It's very early right now, but so far, the negatives on Mike White are that he locks onto his receivers, and takes too many chances trying to hit tight windows in the middle of the field. After just a shallow scan, I can't find the rubber stamp "inconsistent accuracy when getting sacked or running for his life" bashing which is almost universal.
White's scouting reports that I've seen so far (if you add on the "inconsistent accuracy" bullshit) matches that of Mason Rudolph, except White apparently has a better arm, has better deep accuracy, and is more aggressive.
1: Is the "I heard" Dorsey likes him report valid? I have no idea, but wouldn't be surprised.
2: If true, what does it mean? Well, it means he likes him! More than Darnold or the other guys? Let's not leap to that conclusion, shall we not? (Remember when you "assume", you make an ass of y o u r s e l f).
However, what if my own not humble early first impression is correct, and Mike White is a big sleeper, who rightfully belongs with the overhyped quarterbacks in this draft?
Well, even with a strong Senior Bowl week, he could remain lost in the shuffle, and be available in the second round or later.
Kirk Cousins and Russell Wilson were fourth round afterthoughts. Aaron Rodgers was a low first rounder (and a lot of people thought that when Brett Favre left Green Bay several years later the Pack was doomed).
John Dorsey WILL sign a veteran quarterback to start immediately (no debate) this season. Right now, I do think that will be Alex Smith, as Kirk Cousins' asking price is utterly rediculous, and some idiot is libel to pay it.
As Terry Pluto agrees with what I've said, we can't figure out who died and declared A J McCarron or Tyrod Taylor franchise quarterbacks, and every Viking quarterback except Keenum comes with huge red flags.
And I take this Chase Daniels rumor with a pound of salt (but can't dismiss it completely. I'll investigate and get back to you).
Anyhoo, Dorsey will get a GOOD (or excellent) veteran quarterback in here (ready for the Steelers/Ravens/Bengals) for at least 2018.
With Kizer as the top backup (which he should have been in 2017 dammit), whoever Dorsey drafts will be glued to the bench as a rookie (like Kizer should have been dammit).
You know where I'm going here. I can hear you screaming "NOOO NOT AGAIN JUST DRAFT A QUARTERBACK FIRST OVERALL!"
I hear you, but you're not being rational:
1: John Dorsey isn't Sashi Brown or Ray Farmer or anybody else.
2: Talent is talent. Ryan Leaf was a "can't miss". Alex Smith was called a "bust" for half his career. Blake Bortles was called a bust until this season. Who was that Raiders can't miss who lasted about one season? (You can't remember either right?)
You don't draft a guy, "no madder wudd", regardless of what everybody else says, if you don't think he's "da man". You draft the guy YOU think is da man!
3: It's really hard to outsmart everybody else (Pat Kirwan says it's impossible, at least with quarterbacks), but if YOU think a Mike White has as much or more talent than the guys everybody else is slavering over, and you can get him a lot cheaper, you DO IT. DUH!!!
As I've said, it's early, and the Senior Bowl and more research might bring me back to Baker Mayfield (or something) again, but for the moment I favor trading down from number one and nailing down Laquon Barkley, and maybe trading down from number four too, and STILL getting a stud safety or cornerback or edge-rusher or LEFT tackle, and getting Mike White later.
A note on that: First round picks come with five year contracts, instead of four. If Dorsey hoses the Madding crowd out of even more draft picks, he can trade up to nail White down and get a 5th year out of it.
Nobody said John Dorsey can't do what Sashi Brown did yet again...I mean except for the DeShone Kizer part....
Sunday, January 21, 2018
Todd Haley, Hue Fisher, and the Browns
The Browns are serious about Todd Haley as the new offensive coordinator of the Browns, and I officially endorse him. Nothing more needs to be said, however I have to fill up some space here, so I must continue:
Haley has kicked ass everywhere he has been.
My ONLY concern with this guy is the fact that Big Ben hasn't run a quarterback sneak in over two seasons, and in the last playoff game, one third and negligable conversion might have won that game.
Ben threw Haley under the bus, saying that he ran the plays that were called. But my ex-quarterbacks on NFL Radio all agree that in every offense they ever ran, they were all authorized to check to a sneak in those situations. They all had a few code-words to target the lane and the Mike.
This was my only concern, because Haley makes the most of what he has, everywhere he has been.
In fairness, he has been fortunate to have had excellent talent to work with, with both the Steelers and the Cardinals. Despite this, I can't see how anybody else could have maxed that talent out like Haley did.
Haley saw Ebineezer Belle's potential, and turned him into another David Johnson. He finds and exploits mismatches as well as any OC in the NFL. Even with weapons like Belle and Brown, he runs a balanced offense which takes what the defense gives him...
That is, if you zero in on Belle and/or Brown, he will use the other guys (until you back off).
With the Browns, Haley would max out Duke Johnson, Corey Coleman, Njoku, and Gordon.
Well of course he doesn't have a Big Ben here yet, and he does need a quarterback who can hit the broad side of a barn (so stipulated).
But a couple points I need to make here:
Hue Jackson is not in charge of this search, or this decision. Based on Hue's own results, the last thing John Dorsey wants is a guy who thinks like Hue. Indeed, anybody Hue likes probably scares the hell out of Dorsey.
The Browns probably are indeed serious about Haley, but for all we know, Hue doesn't want him.
Haley uses some zone-blocking (to help Belle out), for example. He does go vertical in the passing game a lot, which Hue likes, but also occasionally passes short and outside, which Hue can't tolerate. And he leaves his best skill players on the field for many consecutive plays, rather than rotating them in and out like Hue does.
And Haley was a Head Coach himself, and as a coordinator has a lot of credibility, so he's libel not to cooperate.
Maybe I'm hammering Hue more than I should again here. Maybe he's one of those extremely rare Head Coaches who isn't an egomaniac, and is ok with letting an assistant do his own thing. Maybe he is indeed a Haley fan, for all I know.
It just doesn't matter, however. John Dorsey will choose the new OC. Not Hue Jackson.
Mary Kay Cabbott had a guy hypothesize that John Dorsey might like two or even three quarterbacks equally, and wondered if, on that basis, he might not draft Saquon Barkley first and the quarterback fourth.
Ignoring the qualifier, MKC said he had to take the quarterback first, no matter what. This is irrational.
Mary clearly still thinks Barkley is being overrated by literally everybody else, as well.
I did watch highlights of Barkley and Derrius Guice, and was impressed by Guice as well. Guice hasn't proven anything as a passcatcher, however.
Guice is slightly taller and lighter too, but looks a lot like Barkley as a runner. If the Browns miss out on Barkley, Guice could make it to the second round.
But Barkley...he hurdles over guys. I mean he jumps over them. Sometimes they get a piece of him, but he still comes down running at full speed anyway. His reactions are amazing, as he sees a guy start to go for his legs and times the jump perfectly in full stride.
Guice has a very bright future. At 5'11", he should become a good receiver himself and evolve into a similar player to Barkley. But Barkley, I think, is a little quicker out of the gate, and a little harder to bring down.
I still take Barkley, and give the new quarterbacks a bellcow/swiss army back in one...
Speaking of which, wide receiver wide receiver wide receiver.
It matters that Seth DeValve is a former wide receiver, that Njoku runs like one, and that Duke Johnson can line up in any WR slot. And if you draft Barkley, now you've got two of those guys.
I would love to have Pryor back, and/or Jarvis Landry, and would be fine with drafting one as well. But some clown mocked one at fourth overall! Come ON, man!
Haley has kicked ass everywhere he has been.
My ONLY concern with this guy is the fact that Big Ben hasn't run a quarterback sneak in over two seasons, and in the last playoff game, one third and negligable conversion might have won that game.
Ben threw Haley under the bus, saying that he ran the plays that were called. But my ex-quarterbacks on NFL Radio all agree that in every offense they ever ran, they were all authorized to check to a sneak in those situations. They all had a few code-words to target the lane and the Mike.
This was my only concern, because Haley makes the most of what he has, everywhere he has been.
In fairness, he has been fortunate to have had excellent talent to work with, with both the Steelers and the Cardinals. Despite this, I can't see how anybody else could have maxed that talent out like Haley did.
Haley saw Ebineezer Belle's potential, and turned him into another David Johnson. He finds and exploits mismatches as well as any OC in the NFL. Even with weapons like Belle and Brown, he runs a balanced offense which takes what the defense gives him...
That is, if you zero in on Belle and/or Brown, he will use the other guys (until you back off).
With the Browns, Haley would max out Duke Johnson, Corey Coleman, Njoku, and Gordon.
Well of course he doesn't have a Big Ben here yet, and he does need a quarterback who can hit the broad side of a barn (so stipulated).
But a couple points I need to make here:
Hue Jackson is not in charge of this search, or this decision. Based on Hue's own results, the last thing John Dorsey wants is a guy who thinks like Hue. Indeed, anybody Hue likes probably scares the hell out of Dorsey.
The Browns probably are indeed serious about Haley, but for all we know, Hue doesn't want him.
Haley uses some zone-blocking (to help Belle out), for example. He does go vertical in the passing game a lot, which Hue likes, but also occasionally passes short and outside, which Hue can't tolerate. And he leaves his best skill players on the field for many consecutive plays, rather than rotating them in and out like Hue does.
And Haley was a Head Coach himself, and as a coordinator has a lot of credibility, so he's libel not to cooperate.
Maybe I'm hammering Hue more than I should again here. Maybe he's one of those extremely rare Head Coaches who isn't an egomaniac, and is ok with letting an assistant do his own thing. Maybe he is indeed a Haley fan, for all I know.
It just doesn't matter, however. John Dorsey will choose the new OC. Not Hue Jackson.
Mary Kay Cabbott had a guy hypothesize that John Dorsey might like two or even three quarterbacks equally, and wondered if, on that basis, he might not draft Saquon Barkley first and the quarterback fourth.
Ignoring the qualifier, MKC said he had to take the quarterback first, no matter what. This is irrational.
Mary clearly still thinks Barkley is being overrated by literally everybody else, as well.
I did watch highlights of Barkley and Derrius Guice, and was impressed by Guice as well. Guice hasn't proven anything as a passcatcher, however.
Guice is slightly taller and lighter too, but looks a lot like Barkley as a runner. If the Browns miss out on Barkley, Guice could make it to the second round.
But Barkley...he hurdles over guys. I mean he jumps over them. Sometimes they get a piece of him, but he still comes down running at full speed anyway. His reactions are amazing, as he sees a guy start to go for his legs and times the jump perfectly in full stride.
Guice has a very bright future. At 5'11", he should become a good receiver himself and evolve into a similar player to Barkley. But Barkley, I think, is a little quicker out of the gate, and a little harder to bring down.
I still take Barkley, and give the new quarterbacks a bellcow/swiss army back in one...
Speaking of which, wide receiver wide receiver wide receiver.
It matters that Seth DeValve is a former wide receiver, that Njoku runs like one, and that Duke Johnson can line up in any WR slot. And if you draft Barkley, now you've got two of those guys.
I would love to have Pryor back, and/or Jarvis Landry, and would be fine with drafting one as well. But some clown mocked one at fourth overall! Come ON, man!
Saturday, January 20, 2018
Josh Allen? Really?
Scanning articles on the Browns, I've found some good ones this time.
Bud Shaw has seen Mel Kiper project Josh Allen to the Browns, and wonders if accuracy matters. He quotes Kiper as acknowleging Allen's sub-54% completion percentage, but saying statistics are overrated.
Kiper says that Allen finished his college carreer stronger than any of the other prospects. He apparently feels that Allen has taken a step forward in his development.
But Shaw makes a good point in re accuracy. And I have to restate here that 95% of what they're saying about Allen this offseason is identical to what they said about DeShone Kizer last season.
It's different this time, as Allen will play in the Senior Bowl, and get a chance to prove Kiper right or wrong.
My money remains on Shorty Mayfield and Mason Rudolph, who are vastly more accurate at 67-plus and 70-plus percent.
In re Rudolph, I was stunned by NFL pros saying his terrific receivers made him look better than he is with "circus catches".
Disclaimer: All I saw were two highlight films, which of course were all his best plays.
However, I saw a whole bunch of plays, even here, where somebody with his mind made up in advance could give the receiver all the credit and the quarterback none...if that is what he had decided to see in advance.
Rudolph's highlights were loaded with short and intermediate passes that his receivers took 20-plus yards for huge YAC yardage, and contested catches which his receivers "won". (I have to concede here that there were only a couple long bombs).
But in reality, all the passes I saw were deadly accurate. He caught all those YAC guys in stride and placed all those contested balls precisely where his receiver could get it and the defender could not.
There's a lot of prejudice against Big Twelve quarterbacks (like Mayfield and Rudolph) for a good reason: Almost all of them have failed in the NFL, and NONE of them have been elite.
We need to keep the jury out on Ryan Tannehill, but that's about it. If Rudolph had declared for the draft last season, he would have been a first round pick.
His big problem this season is how strong this draft class is percieved to be vs last season's. While Rudolph is clearly better, by every measure, than he was last season, it is now convenient for scouts to remember his air-raid offense and conference.
This is subjective thinking. I'm not a quarterback expert, but I can spot rationalization a mile away. Last year, Rudolph was possibly the best quarterback in the draft (had he declared), and now he's a bumb?
That's why analytics really matter, you see? Your "hard core football guys" are saying Josh Allen is a first overall pick, the potential first overall from last season is a bumb this season, accuracy doesn't matter...
Not that I like Rudolph better than Mayfield, or anything! He could fall on his face in the NFL, like almost every other Big 12 quarterback drafted in the last 8 years. My point is the fact that most of the same experts who loved Rudolph last season call him a bumb now, despite the fact that he has improved!
I personally like Mayfield most, period. His mentality, personality, and attitude.
70-plus % completion percentage is impressive by itself, but (sorry to go all "moneyball" on you here), but that combined with an almost 10 yard yards per-attempt is...I'm not sure, but it's possibly unprecedented, and certainly ELITE!
Baker Mayfield is GREEDY. He looks deep all the time. Screw the "air raid offense/big twelve" stuff! This guy (ask PFF dammit) prefers vertical to crossing routes, and the deeper the better!
MARK MY WORDS: BAKER MAYFIELD IS THE BEST QUARTERBACK IN THE 2018 DRAFT. He might be the next Aaron Rodgers, even if Aaron has a half inch on him! Screw that let's go Drew Brees he's a skycsraper compared to him!
Can I bring up Kurt Warner here? Is Warner a fraction of an inch taller or shorter? Not sure. Just know it's critical.
I kid: It's irrelevant! Baker Mayfield is a fiery team leader with a chip on his shoulder and a sload of confidence. He has the brains. He excels under pressure. Improvises; finds ways to win.
No other quarterback in this draft class compares to him statistically. He was more successful than all of them, and if you if you can manage to blame him for losing to the Georgia Bulldogs you need a brain transplant.
Baker Mayfield will outperform every other quarterback at the Senior Bowl.
Fortunately for John Dorsey, it won't matter. Mayfield will still be shorter than everybody else, and everybody else will be taller so...
No you still don't get it: The best quarterback is the best quarterback, period, and what makes them the best is between their ears. Not between their heels and the top of their heads.
Baker Mayfield is the best quarterback in this draft, period REMEMBER I TOLD YOU.
I'd be happy with Cousins at a reasonable price, but think Alex Smith is more realistic (and better), but either way, imo you still draft the best quarterback in this draft class, and that is Baker Mayfield.
I am stunned that Kiper and an unnamed expert could predict Josh Allen (DeShone Kizer II) as the first overall draft pick by the Browns...
Fortunately, Hue Jackson has zero power now, and John Dorsey can do exactly what Sashi Brown would have done, since it's blatently obvious:
Draft the best quarterback in this draft, AND the consensus-best player (Barkley).
Dorsey's GM history isn't that long, but the fact that he zeroed in on Alex Smith as soon as he was hired in KC, and then traded up for Patrick Mahomes last season, tells me how smart he is.
Most GMs look at Tom Brady and decide they don't have to draft a quarterback until their starter is over 40 as well. Dorsey groks that Brady is an outlier. Also, he saw Alex Smith's 20 million salary looming, along with the one season left on his contract.
He no doubt planned to trade Smith himself and hand the keys to Mahomes next season.
That was Kansas City, where he had an issue with cap space. Here, he can afford and even extend Smith, and get his eventual successor in the classroom right now.
And that replacement? He will be like Alex Smith: A C C U R A T E.
...I hope.
Bud Shaw has seen Mel Kiper project Josh Allen to the Browns, and wonders if accuracy matters. He quotes Kiper as acknowleging Allen's sub-54% completion percentage, but saying statistics are overrated.
Kiper says that Allen finished his college carreer stronger than any of the other prospects. He apparently feels that Allen has taken a step forward in his development.
But Shaw makes a good point in re accuracy. And I have to restate here that 95% of what they're saying about Allen this offseason is identical to what they said about DeShone Kizer last season.
It's different this time, as Allen will play in the Senior Bowl, and get a chance to prove Kiper right or wrong.
My money remains on Shorty Mayfield and Mason Rudolph, who are vastly more accurate at 67-plus and 70-plus percent.
In re Rudolph, I was stunned by NFL pros saying his terrific receivers made him look better than he is with "circus catches".
Disclaimer: All I saw were two highlight films, which of course were all his best plays.
However, I saw a whole bunch of plays, even here, where somebody with his mind made up in advance could give the receiver all the credit and the quarterback none...if that is what he had decided to see in advance.
Rudolph's highlights were loaded with short and intermediate passes that his receivers took 20-plus yards for huge YAC yardage, and contested catches which his receivers "won". (I have to concede here that there were only a couple long bombs).
But in reality, all the passes I saw were deadly accurate. He caught all those YAC guys in stride and placed all those contested balls precisely where his receiver could get it and the defender could not.
There's a lot of prejudice against Big Twelve quarterbacks (like Mayfield and Rudolph) for a good reason: Almost all of them have failed in the NFL, and NONE of them have been elite.
We need to keep the jury out on Ryan Tannehill, but that's about it. If Rudolph had declared for the draft last season, he would have been a first round pick.
His big problem this season is how strong this draft class is percieved to be vs last season's. While Rudolph is clearly better, by every measure, than he was last season, it is now convenient for scouts to remember his air-raid offense and conference.
This is subjective thinking. I'm not a quarterback expert, but I can spot rationalization a mile away. Last year, Rudolph was possibly the best quarterback in the draft (had he declared), and now he's a bumb?
That's why analytics really matter, you see? Your "hard core football guys" are saying Josh Allen is a first overall pick, the potential first overall from last season is a bumb this season, accuracy doesn't matter...
Not that I like Rudolph better than Mayfield, or anything! He could fall on his face in the NFL, like almost every other Big 12 quarterback drafted in the last 8 years. My point is the fact that most of the same experts who loved Rudolph last season call him a bumb now, despite the fact that he has improved!
I personally like Mayfield most, period. His mentality, personality, and attitude.
70-plus % completion percentage is impressive by itself, but (sorry to go all "moneyball" on you here), but that combined with an almost 10 yard yards per-attempt is...I'm not sure, but it's possibly unprecedented, and certainly ELITE!
Baker Mayfield is GREEDY. He looks deep all the time. Screw the "air raid offense/big twelve" stuff! This guy (ask PFF dammit) prefers vertical to crossing routes, and the deeper the better!
MARK MY WORDS: BAKER MAYFIELD IS THE BEST QUARTERBACK IN THE 2018 DRAFT. He might be the next Aaron Rodgers, even if Aaron has a half inch on him! Screw that let's go Drew Brees he's a skycsraper compared to him!
Can I bring up Kurt Warner here? Is Warner a fraction of an inch taller or shorter? Not sure. Just know it's critical.
I kid: It's irrelevant! Baker Mayfield is a fiery team leader with a chip on his shoulder and a sload of confidence. He has the brains. He excels under pressure. Improvises; finds ways to win.
No other quarterback in this draft class compares to him statistically. He was more successful than all of them, and if you if you can manage to blame him for losing to the Georgia Bulldogs you need a brain transplant.
Baker Mayfield will outperform every other quarterback at the Senior Bowl.
Fortunately for John Dorsey, it won't matter. Mayfield will still be shorter than everybody else, and everybody else will be taller so...
No you still don't get it: The best quarterback is the best quarterback, period, and what makes them the best is between their ears. Not between their heels and the top of their heads.
Baker Mayfield is the best quarterback in this draft, period REMEMBER I TOLD YOU.
I'd be happy with Cousins at a reasonable price, but think Alex Smith is more realistic (and better), but either way, imo you still draft the best quarterback in this draft class, and that is Baker Mayfield.
I am stunned that Kiper and an unnamed expert could predict Josh Allen (DeShone Kizer II) as the first overall draft pick by the Browns...
Fortunately, Hue Jackson has zero power now, and John Dorsey can do exactly what Sashi Brown would have done, since it's blatently obvious:
Draft the best quarterback in this draft, AND the consensus-best player (Barkley).
Dorsey's GM history isn't that long, but the fact that he zeroed in on Alex Smith as soon as he was hired in KC, and then traded up for Patrick Mahomes last season, tells me how smart he is.
Most GMs look at Tom Brady and decide they don't have to draft a quarterback until their starter is over 40 as well. Dorsey groks that Brady is an outlier. Also, he saw Alex Smith's 20 million salary looming, along with the one season left on his contract.
He no doubt planned to trade Smith himself and hand the keys to Mahomes next season.
That was Kansas City, where he had an issue with cap space. Here, he can afford and even extend Smith, and get his eventual successor in the classroom right now.
And that replacement? He will be like Alex Smith: A C C U R A T E.
...I hope.
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