Mary Kay thinks the Browns vs Lions is a winnable game. She's actually more optimistic than I am here, because I see the Lions as one of the best teams in the NFL, with easily a top five quarterback, only now approaching his real potential.
This was an excellent article, though, and her reasons for thinking the Browns have a shot vs the Lions are valid.
Dammit I have to spell this out: Mary Kay never predicted a Browns win. She just said this game was winnable. I hate that I have to translate english into english all the time.
Anyway, Mary cited PFF a lot. They list "edge rusher" as the second need for the Browns behind (I'll give you one guess). She explains (and provides links) that PFF analysts note that quarterbacks facing a Garrettless Bowns defense have more time to throw than vs a healthy Garrett (I'm filling in blanks here but trust me that's what they mean).
As Mary explains, PFF thinks that an almost-Garrett on the opposite edge would massively upgrade the overall pass rush.
I think they screwed this up, and here's why:
1: I want to see Rodney Ogbahfield's stats with and without Garrett. Garrett has only played three games so far (with great results), but when he's been out, Ogbah has been THE edge-rusher. Offenses have compensated. Ogbah did so-so as a passrusher, but really well overall.
I'm not sure, but I think the PFF talking heads haven't compared Ogbah with Garrett to Ogbah without Garrett. Know what I mean--like a number two receiver with/without his number one?
2: PFF talking heads may be adhering to one schematic model at the expense of another equally valid one.
This defense has shut down the run. Ogbah has been a big part of that. Part of what made Myles Garrett the consensus-best first overall pick was the fact that he could also stop the run; the fact that he wasn't one-dimensional.
PFF is correct if Jim Schwartze is the defensive coordinator here, but the Browns have Gregg Williams. Rodney Ogbahfield (and Nate Orchard) aren't Myles Garrett, but they're total packages like he is.
Rodney Hassanfield isn't like them, but has his own role to play.
An almost-Garrett would obviously help a lot, but no: Edge-rusher is not the Browns number two need.
I would call that need wide receiver, but Corey Coleman is about to come back, and Josh Gordon is a week behind him (as I've mentioned, for some strange reason DeShone Kizer's "light" might coincidentally go on along this time-line wull wuddya no?).
The Browns real number two need is probably a Joe Thomas Junior or, if Hue the Blockhead Jackson sticks around, a big stud running back (as they kick Crow to the curb---dammit).
But I digress: PFF is a great resource, as is NumberFire and Pro Football Outsiders et al. Their analytical programs are awesome, and the writers who "translate" them are also generally very sharp.
But they're not perfect.
Speaking of which, heading into this game, one Lions "analyst" said the Browns defense's front seven sucks🤔.
(To prove that there in intelligent life in Detroit, HERE is an excellent objective scouting report from the Motor City).
Back here on Earth, the Lions will not run well on the Browns, their top tight end is Ebron, and Stafford will be under intense pressure all game long.
The Lions defense is underrated, and improving. DeShone Kizer will need to be average or above for the Browns to have any chance at all...unless Peppers scores on a punt or kick return.
This is very frustrating, because I expect Hue Lewis to park either DeValve or Njoku on the bench on every down, and not zone-block, and stuff...
That's why I assume the Browns will lose. Dammit.
Yeah fire Sashi Brown right? You people...
In this article, the writer dutifully quotes the coaches, but never heard of Kai Nacua. I repeat that Kai might be the new "Angel" starting this week, and Jabrill Peppers will play nickel, two-deep safety, strong, and WIL (ie what he does best).
If I'm right, and the undrafted rookie Nacua is deemed "ready", it will improve deep coverage, pressure, and run defense.
I told you about Kai Nacua. Stay tuned.
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