Tuesday, November 14, 2017

Browns Take Lead in Race for First Overall Pick

The Browns have taken the lead in the race for the first overall draft pick in 2018.  We don't know yet how long Jamie Collins will be out, but Shon Coleman (concussion protocol) is likely to miss at least one game.

However, obstacles to the first overall pick are due to start cropping up:

1: If Randall Telfer also misses time, Hue Jackson will use Matt Lengel to keep Njoku or DeValve on the bench as often as possible, but still might have to use two of his best receivers at the same time.

2: Corey Coleman should play next week, and Josh Gordon the week after.

3: Isaiah Crowell is starting to make some noise.  I was unable to watch the game, so I don't know if Hue mixed in some zone-blocking to help him out, but at this point would be surprised if he did, so Crow might get stuffed again next week.

4: Vs the Lions, the Browns for once ran a balanced offense.  Which came first-completing the deep passes, or averaging 5 yards per-carry? It doesn't matter: A defense must line up to stop one or the other, and that tells the quarterback what to do.  Aside from checking to a quarterback sneak when he did, DeShone Kizer made the right calls.

4a: Kizer had his second-best game of the season.  He could still regress again, but that doesn't fit the typical pattern.

A mentally-impaired Lions writer attacked the Lions for "letting" the horrible stinky crappy Browns get close.  I tried, but can't accept that.  The Lions player who said the Browns had top ten talent wasn't just "being nice".

The Brainiac writer wants to know what happened to Detroit's run defense, for example.  A pretty good offensive line, really good tight ends, and Crow/Duke happened to it!  This idiot didn't even bother separating Kizer from the running backs!  He expects them to "stuff" running quarterbacks just like running backs! 

And what happened to Matt Stafford and company was an excellent front seven and the return of McCourtey.

But I digress: I wish Simpletonians like the aforementioned boob were right about the Browns, but they're not.

And do you hear some of this garbage?  Yeah the sneak in that situation was dumb, but it was a rookie mistake (not really on Hue at all).  If Hue had called it, he'd deserve all the crap he's taking.  But it was the 20-year old rookie quarterback, and rookies make mistakes!

Because of this and...what else?...the Browns "stumbled and bumbled" all game long?

No, a great quarterback and a more experienced team just took control of things later in the game.  The Lions earned the win, and aside from that one screw-up, (and no doubt a few blown assignments and the DeValve strip), experience prevailed.  Oh yeah: and the referees.

I know you're sick of losing, but can't you separate the Lions from the Colts?  That is a top five NFC team with a top five quarterback! Think with your brain dammit what were you expecting?

Unfortunately, it's more likely than not that DeShone Kizer is making slow but steady progress.  Joel Bitonio said that he's now seen most of the defensive variants he will in the future, and implies that he's becoming comfortable now.

Certainly I noticed that he got rid of the ball more quickly, even on the deeper passes.

By the way, many fans don't know this, but deep throws don't neccessarily have to take much time, especially in a Corellian timing offense.  In fact, the quarterback is supposed to throw to the deepest receiver in single coverage, whether he's "covered" or not, because an accurate throw will beat that coverage more often than not.

This is partly why rookies have a hard time pulling the trigger; they've been conditioned not to throw until they confirm separation.

Some of the all-time great long bombs have left quarterback's hands less than 3.1 seconds after the snap.  A deep "bucket pass" hangs like a punt, and a deep flyer has up to 7-10 seconds to reach his spot.

I only heard it on radio.  I know that Kizer missed some deep passes, but I think Jim Donovan might have set the bar too high on these:

There is a reason why dink-and-dunk passers have great completion percentages, and mad bombers don't.  If DeShone Kizer hits 50% 30-plus yards downfield, he's doing good.

Jim is talking about a couple feet here and a couple feet there, and I don't think he groks just how tough that is at that distance.

If your pinky twitches, you miss.  If you slightly under or overestimate speeds, you miss.  If you throw it to the outside shoulder and not the back shoulder, it's broken up or intercepted.  Ditto if the receiver makes the wrong move.  If your mechanics aren't exactly perfect.  If there's a wind-gust!

And to err on the side of out-of-bounds or too deep is a rule of thumb, which Kizer did vs the Lions.  Yes, he was definitely better after the bye vs the Lions.

It looks worse and worse for the Browns getting the first overall pick, the more I think about it (with my brain).

DeShone Kizer did what he did to the Lions defense without Corey Coleman or Gordon.  To top it off, even Kenny Britt stopped screwing up! This looks really bad!

I mentioned Shon Coleman and Jamie Collins missing time, and Hue Lewis's blockheaded use of personnel and blocking schemes, but it might not be enough.

Once both Corey Coleman and Josh Gordon are back, Hue's parking Njoku or DeValve on the bench all the time won't matter anymore, and once defenses fear the deep threat, they can't stack the box, and even sans zone-blocks, Crowell should do serious damage.

PFF is instructive here: Isaiah Crowell is just about as good as it gets after first contact.  He breaks tackles and forces misses (PFF even separates the two!)

As if that wasn't bad enough, since Sashi Brown/Andrew Berry snagged Bryce Treggs off waivers, Duke has played more out of the backfield on third downs, and a little less out of the slot.

Hue Jackson is not dumb enough to sabotage the offense.

AND Gregg Williams runs his defense!

This looks bad. The Browns should beat the Ravens, and maybe the Chargers.  They have a decent shot vs Cinci, and could even upset the Stoolers (like they almost did in game one).

Ok shut tf up and think with your brain! You look like Joe Biden with the smirks and eye-rolls--has any part of this post even registered on your alleged brains? Jeez it's like talking to a wall!

Hey I want to agree with you that this is the shittiest team in the history of football because I want that first overall draft pick, but simply can't shut down my brain like you guys do at will! 

Fortunately, this is still the "all-rookie" team of the NFL, and even if Kizer is improving, he is NOT going to become an elite QB in 2017 even with Coleman/Gordon, and with Hue Lewis's help, they could still manage to win only two games.

So we need to root for the Giants and the 49ers.  The 49ers are actually not the worst threat.  They have talent, and coaching.  They could easily win two more games.

The Giants are far scarier, because they're geezers and lack talent (now).  They could crap out.  The Niners just beat them handily, and are ahead of schedule (this was not as extensive a rebuild, they just got Garopollo, and Shanahan will make sure they can run the ball on anybody).

Simpletonians think Eli Manning is a wizard or something, but in reality, the Giants are as bad overall as they think the Browns are, and he aint God.

The Giants (not the Browns) are the front-runners for the first overall pick, despite the Browns one-game lead.  So everybody in Cleveland should become Giants fans as of now.

It still looks very bad.  The Browns could still be unable to avoid winning three to five games, despite Hue's Martonian blockheadedness and key injuries.

I have little doubt that Black Cloud now agrees with me 100%, since this is negative and pessimistic.  He will now have to find some way to make fun of the Browns while rooting for them.

Black Cloud has a fall-back position: Even if the Browns draft first overall, if it's a quarterback they'll blow it.

I gotta say this: Black Cloud likes to piss me off, and really isn't a cretin...not that he would ever agitate, or anything!  Black Cloud is a "casual fan" who just likes to piss me off.

Anyhoo, he can root for Gordon to fall off the wagon, Corey to break his hand again, Shon to stay off-line for the rest of the season, and Kizer to uh...implode or something, but he needs all of this to make the Browns finish with fewer than two wins.

I have mixed feelings, like most of you.  Since playoffs are impossible this season, my inner-computer says the Browns need the first overall pick.  My inner-analyst says they need to win for psychological reasons, plus for recruiting purposes.

I don't have an "inner-fan", so I don't want them to pointlessly win just "because" when it does more harm than good long-term.

See why I defend this front office?

Hell, I AGREE that they should have drafted DeShaun Watson! I counted it a slam-dunk at the time, and was shocked by the trade-down.

But YOU PEOPLE need to comprehend that DeShone Kizer was the apple of the Browns' eye, that Hue Jackson was all-in for him, and that he signed off on the trade-down.

And YOU PEOPLE need to know that Hue Jackson might be great at nurturing quarterbacks, but might not be so good at picking them!

Even so (listen carefully), Kiser is two years younger than the rest.  He matches Wentz physically, and has the strongest arm.  He is highly intelligent.  He has much less experience than Wentz and Watson.  Hey--time to stick Trubisky in his coffin too right?

With no wide receivers to speak of, as the rawest of rookies, Kizer just engineered 24 points on the Lions in Detroit.

Don't write DeShone Kizer off.  Vs the Lions (pretty good) defense, he did okay.

I mostly hope for the first overall draft pick so they can draft Rosen.  Or Darnold.  Or whoever.

You still don't get it! They can TRADE Kizer (for a first round pick) if Coleman and Gordon inflate his value as I expect them to, and if not, give the Browns maybe THE best 1-2 qb combo in the NFL.

You don't get it because you are spazzing out.  The head-shakes, eye-rolls, and facial contortions make it look like you're having a siezure (or losing a debate).  Cut it out.


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