Thursday, November 30, 2017

Giants Make Move on Browns in Race for Rosen

Uh-oh!  The Giants are making a move on first overall!  Eli Manning is benched, and Geno Smith and (3rd round rookie) Davis Webb are taking over!

This is bad!  Just when DeShone Kizer shows some real promise and Josh Gordon is coming back, the Giants are getting even worse!  They could well overtake the Browns!

The news on the 49ers front is better, as Jimmy Garopollo will indeed start this week, and many real experts expect him to be pretty good.  As I've also mentioned, the Niners do have some emerging talent starting to round into shape, so there's a good chance they could fall further behind, or at least finish behind the Browns.

Sam Darnold never said anything about staying in school to avoid being drafted by the Browns.  I knew that, of course, but it wasn't worth mentioning.  Some writer speculated about it and another writer embellished it and now you have a work of fiction.

Besides, would you throw away eight million or so bucks to avoid dealing with Duke Johnson, being protected by Joe Thomas, and throwing to Corey Coleman and Josh Gordon?

...why...?

Anyway consensus favors Rosen, whose offensive system has a lot of NFL type elements to it, and who has coped with a serious loss of supporting talent *elevating the play of his teammates*.

The ideal scenario would be for Kizer to finish the 2017 season well (while not winning more than one game, of course), and the Browns drafting Rosen anyway.

Why would they do that?  Because the Browns haven't had a franchise quarterback for a couple centuries or so, and have a chance at having two!

In that situation, Kizer would return as the presumptive starter.  

Did you see what the Eagles got for Sam Bradford? 

Rosen could be like Wentz.  Darnold could be like Goff.  

As Bob Evans points out, the Bowns could have three more picks in the top forty next season.

Bob can't realisticly compare first and second year players to those drafted by previous regimes, but the arrow is up for the majority of Sashi Brown's picks, and those drafted by previous front offices were either so-so or downright horrific.

*Bob stresses that all the previous regimes were "football guys", by the way.

The Browns will have six picks in the top three rounds, so they could (at worst) get quarterback insurance plus five more potential impact players.  There are only twenty two starters on the roster DO YOU U N D E R S T A N D?

If you just said "they'll blow it", are you utterly impervious to reason?  THESE guys are not the same guys as the ones they replaced!

What are you already shoveling dirt on Coleman, Peppers, Ogbah, Shon Coleman, Njoku, or for that matter Kizer? (I left Garrett out on purpose).  What round was Schobert drafted in?  Ogunjobi?

You don't want to start up with me on free agents, do you?  (HINT:  YOU DON'T).

As usual, Bob Evans is right.  The "baseball geek" and "lawyer" are doing better than the "foodball guyzz" preceding them, and it will be almost impossible for any Head Coach to screw up enough not to win in 2018 with the talent-laden roster they'll have to work with.

...Starting this week:  Are Josh Gordon, Corey Coleman, and Duke Johnson playmakers?  Well, how many do you think we need?  Are you aware that between the quarterback and offensive line, that's six guys!  There are only five left!  Even if you dismiss Njoku (and DeValve) for now, very few offenses have three "playmakers", ok?

You can bash DeShone Kizer, but if you keep mindlessly repeating that he has no "weapons",  you are..."out of touch"...no I can't do this you are an imbecile.

Black Cloud just heard me guarantee that the Browns would blow the Chargers out this sunday.  Did you?

Sadly (or happily, come to think of it) Philip Rivers and company are coming together big-time, and are very talented.

They're hard on opposing receivers and tight ends, and it's a bad matchup in general.

...except they haven't had to cover a Josh Gordon and a Corey Coleman at the same time yet.

Fortunately, while for any veteran quarterback with any running game at all, this is the land of opportunity, Kizer can't be trusted to make the right reads (yet), and might "miss" Gordon because he's not used to him yet...

The Browns will probably lose...after scaring the Chargers somewhat.

Yeah things are looking up! "Too little too late"; the Browns won't be able to lose out, but are solid front-runners for Rosen.  2-14 might be just about perfect.







Sunday, November 26, 2017

Irrational Pessimism and the Cleveland Browns

I come not to praise Black Cloud, but to bury him:

1: "I wouldn't get my hopes up" (about Josh Gordon's return next week making any difference).

...uh...what!?!  This guy made Brandon Weedon, Jason Campbell, and Brian Hoyer look like Joe Montana en route to setting several NFL records as the top receiver in the NFL in his second season...in 14 games!

And now Corey Coleman is back, and he, as the undisputed number one receiver, just duked it out with Ryan Fitzpatrick and gave better than he got!  

Called digression: Coleman is fiery and selfless: He takes blocking seriously, fights for every inch, and is fearless.  He has the mental makeup to be a great wide receiver...(once he stops dropping touchdown passes).  End of digression.

Gordon, with Coleman...won't make any difference?

2: "You could draft a clone of Tom Brady and he'd be a sports commentator in two years".

Well like I said, Black Cloud isn't really mentally impaired, but has to say stuff like this to piss me off.  He has succeeded.  So I must destroy him:

Black Cloud doesn't pay enough attention to know who to bash, so he just bashes everybody.  Kizer sucks, but so do all his running backs and recievers and blockers.  It's all his fault, and their fault.  And Hue Jackson and Sashi Brown's fault too.

Those sentient people who read this Blog remember how Randy Moss made Daunte Culpepper's carreer.  Tom Brady had him for a couple seasons. Moss did a nice job for him, but his stats weren't that great.

That's because Tom Brady has always used all of his receivers.  He dinks and dunks when he needs to, but first and foremost, he GETS RID OF THE DAMN BALL because he reads pressure and coverage before the snap, and knows where to throw it!

Brady, right from the beginning, was also all over his receivers when they screwed up in practice.  He was always like a coach, and the real coaches got out of his way.

Tom Brady makes average receivers look great.  When those receivers go somewhere else, they kinda disappear.

Randy Moss aside, he has never had anything like Gordon and Coleman at x and y.

Black Cloud:  Do the Green Bay Packers suck?  They sure seem to suck right now!  Is it remotely possible that they would suck less if Aaron Rodgers was still starting for them?

Leaving the smoking ruins of what used to be Black Cloud, everything is (unfortunately) coming together now for the Browns to blow the first overall pick by winning too many games.

DeShone Kizer actually is similar to Daunte Culpepper, and he's already synched up with Corey Coleman (and Duke Johnson, and even with Njoku).  Add Josh Gordon to this mix, and this could get bad.

Fortunately, Jimmy G might well be taking control of the Niners next week, and the Giants aren't as bad as they looked sans Sterling Shepherd (sp?)

Oh!  Oh! The Packers just returned a Big Ben interception for a touchdown!  But they still suck right?  An Aaron Rodgers clone couldn't save them right?

Sorry I gotta do that.  Black Cloud is relentless.  You gotta keep stomping him, because every hint of bad news brings him back.  Black Cloud is deathless, like a vampire.  He is poised to blame the Browns first win on referees and blind squirrels.

In the sunday night game, the backup quarterback just dumped off to the third string running back who took it 40 yards or so for a touchdown to take a 14-6 lead over the Stoolers.

I'm not sure how Black Cloud will interpret this.  He will try to find a way to say the Stoolers defense sucks and...

Oh excuse me!  The Steelers defense sucks and so does Big Ben what was I thinking?  Black Cloud doesn't care about the Packers, because he hates the Steelers first and foremost!

Therefore, the systematic march the Steelers are doing on the Packers is all the Packer's fault...including that touchdown and 2 point conversion they just scored!

For the rest of you:  I root for the Browns, but respect the enemy, give credit where credit is due, and think with my brain.

Josh Gordon might be the best wide receiver in the NFL.

Deal with it.

Friday, November 24, 2017

Browns Stretch their Lead in First Overall Derby

The New York Giants have fallen two games behind in the First Overall Draft Plck Derby, but it looks bad for them.

Orleans Darkwa is giving Eli Manning a viable running game, and they're running a more balanced offense.

The Niners remain a threat, but Garopollo looms over them like a black cloud, and this is another young team, with talent, which is starting to stabalize and mature in new offensive and defensive systems.

The Browns have a lot of help with Joe Thomas, Jamie Meder, Ogbah, and Jamie Collins all on IR, but the overall defense has continued to play well in spite of that, and the offensive line (and a tight end) have protected Kizer.

The defensive losses will help the most.  Ogbah was Garrett's bookend.  Nate Orchard is no slouch, however, and the people predicting that the Red Rocket will have all day to throw are delusional.

Meder had a lot to do with stopping the run, but Ogunjobi, Coley, and Brantley can take up that slack.  Jamie Collins can't be replaced.  That one is going to help.

But there's lots of bad news here, even in addition to Corey Coleman and Josh Gordon: It has apparently dawned on Hue Lewis that he should use Duke Johnson more! 

That could screw everything up, because Duke (as a pure runner) fits all blocking schemes, including the one Hue brought from the caves with him.

Rather than zone-block to make the most of Isaiah Crowell, it's looking like Hue will just sort of "phase him out" in favor of Duke instead.

While this is stupid, it will probably work out, and Hue Jackson will accidentally upgrade his running game.

The Ben Gals are heavily favored this sunday.  That's as it should be.  The specific matchups favor the Bungles overall.

I still fear an upset:

1: Corey Coleman is uncoverable.  He is too "sudden" and fast for any cornerback.  He is 6' tall and over 200 lbs, but darts and dashes like a little shrimp.
Coleman's growth from raw rookie to second year starter has been impressive, and he instantly became Kizer's favorite target, and didn't screw up at all.

2: Njoku's "light" may have come on, and Rodney DeValvefield has been here all along.  

3: If you are still saying that DeShone Kizer has "nobody to throw to", you are a certifiable cretin (don't forget Duke).

4: If you think that Andy Dalton will have all day to throw because Ogbah is gone, you are wrong.  If the Bungles focus on Myles Garrett, which they have to, it will cost them a tight end, and/or leave others (including Orchard, Nassib, Coley, etc) blocked man on man.  And standard procedure for Gregg Williams is to send a fifth passrusher on neutral or passing downs.

5: The Bengals have not been very good this season, especially in running the ball.  They have massive talent and depth at running back, but it just hasn't translated into performance for them.  And if you think the 2017 Cleveland Browns defense will fix that, you are psychotic.

6: Marvin Lewis is the Bengals Head Coach.

7: Vontez Burfict, who should be in prison, will almost certainly hurt his team more than help it, unless he succeeds in maiming or knocking Coleman or Johnson out.

8: 5 sacks by the Jagwires has nothing to do with the Ben gals.  The Jags passrush is exceptional (as is their coverage).  The Bangles defense isn't in the same league.

Still, the Bengals are very talented, and Andy Dalton is underrated, so I remain optimistic that they will beat the Browns.

The Browns need every loss they can get right now, because after Josh Gordon comes back, it's a new ball game.

Go Niners!  Go Giants! 

UPDATE: More bad news: The Browns just brought Tyrone Holmes up from the practice squad.  He's very similar to Nate Orchard.  The Browns now have edge-rushers out the yinyang.

Holmes is a second-year player who lost out to the more experienced Orchard and a promising Nassib as a rookie, but he's physically almost an Orchard clone.

Sashi didn't draft Orchard, but signed Holmes.  

Orchard and Holmes are "football players" first.  At this level, they are not elite edge-rushers, but are above average; indeed not far behind Ogbah (Ogbah is quicker and faster).

All three were projected as potential 3-4 OLBs, however, which says a lot about their athleticism.  Holmes, like the other two, can "set the edge", and (zone) cover, and defend the run like a linebacker.

Orchard/Holmes aint Ogbah, but still overmatch most NFL right tackles as edge-rushers.

Myles Garrett overmatches most NFL left tackles, and opponents need to use potential receivers to help out (much like Hue is using a tight end like a de-facto left tackle to help Rango out). 

That leaves four real offensive linemen to stop three remaining defensive line passrushers.

It's not that simple, however, since Gregg Williams sends a fifth passrusher over 40% of the time, from random back-seven positions.

These blitzers ALL overmatch offensive linemen.  Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and Aaron Rodgers can defeat this consistently, but 29 other quarterbacks can't, so most opposing offenses need to keep a back in to pick this blitze up.

The offensive line can now double-team one defensive lineman...but not the other two.

FACT: Coley, Ogunjobi, Shelton, Brantley, Orchard, Holmes, and Nassib can ALL beat one offensive lineman more often than not, and that goes for Myles Garrett vs double-teams as well.

Gregg Williams knows what he's doing.  

Most of his blitzes are through the A-gaps, and that's partly why this defense stuffs the run so well.  

So far, opposing quarterbacks have strafed this defense, but Joe Haden wasn't Joe Haden anymore, McCourtey was injured, Peppers is a rookie, Taylor has frankly sucked, and opposing offenses have played from "ahead", and worn the secondary down.

Ah the hell with it you aint listening "Day suck!" why do I bother okbye


Monday, November 20, 2017

Cleveland Browns Rumor Central

"The Browns are serious about recruiting Peyton Manning":  This could be true, although there is zero evidence that he would be as good as a GM as he was as a quarterback.

But the author of this latest wave of rewritten and embellished articles was Rhona LaCanfora, who just makes stuff up.

"Hue Jackson wants more say in personnel decisions":

This is doubtful, since in reality Hue probably already has significant input.  If you read these articles, you see Carson Wentz and DeShaun Watson mentioned.  The implication is that Hue Jackson could not possibly have been in favor of those trades, and didn't like Kizer as much as he says he does.

That's assuming a lot, and is massively subjective.  The preponderance of the evidence says that Hue Jackson agreed with each of these moves.

It is even possible that GM Peyton Manning would have agreed as well.  A whole bunch of armchair 20-20 hindsight GMs with convenient memories are projecting their own revised opinions into the past here.

That's not to mention attributing Nosterdamus-like powers to Jackson and Manning.  You want to believe in these guys, and to blame somebody else, so you blame Sashi Brown for everything that goes wrong.

When a muckraker like LaCanfora serves up the steaming pile of drama that says what you want to hear, you jump all over it.

I like Peyton Manning, and want to think he'd be a good GM.  John Elway, despite his current difficulties, has done a nice job, and you have to think the quarterback who won him a Superbowl learned a thing or two from him (and has him and Polian on speed-dial).

If he gets hired here, that's ok.  But the vitriol being directed at the current Front Office isn't justified.

Yesterday, the Browns defense allowed the Jagwires 12 points.  Last year, this was the worst defense in the NFL.

Corey Coleman caught six passes for eighty yards vs possibly the toughest defense against wide receivers in the NFL.

Hue Jackson sent Crowell right up the middle all day behind man-blocking, and he was predictably stuffed.  Sashi Brown doesn't tell him to do this stuff.  Sashi didn't tell him to start DeShone Kizer in game one.

Indeed, one move a newly-minted GM Manning has to consider is firing Hue and hiring somebody he knows will tweak his offense to his players.

Kubiak used zone-blocking to run the ball with a running back committee.  As an old, stationary, injured quarterback, Peyton certainly appreciated this.  He knows all of Kubiak's assistants.

Maybe he calls Hue into his office and sees if he can take some constructive criticism.  Why are you trying to turn a one-cut back into a blunt instrument?  Why is either DeValve or Njoku on the sideline on 9 out of 10 plays?  Why don't you like Kevin Hogan?  What was wrong with Jordon Leslie?

Hyperbolic bullcrap aside, Peyton must be tempted to come here, as the talent everywhere except perhaps quarterback is only now beginning to mature into a critical mass, and he would inherit a boatload of high draft picks thanks to the guy everybody is blaming for all the losses.

If he kept people in place, his job would be a piece of cake.  He could zero in on getting Hue to be more adaptable (or replacing him) and picking the right quarterback.

The Browns really have to draft a quarterback first this time, even if DeShone Kizer looks good by the end of the season.  They have to make sure.

For that matter, he could get hands-on with the quarterbacks, and help develop them.  The Head or assistant coach who would resent a Hall of Fame quarterback "stepping on his toes" shouldn't be a coach.  To his credit, I know Hue would welcome the help.

I like Hue.  I don't want him fired.  I just don't want him to be Marvin Lewis or Jeff Fisher.

Anyway, the cavalry is coming.  Josh Gordon and Corey Coleman.  Hue can't possibly keep one of two wide receivers on the bench, so he'll actually play both.

Oh crap!  Hue sticking with Kizer is nuts?  Come on stop it!  This was the Jaguars!  They make everybody look terrible!  Why tf would Hue bench him for this? 

You people...


Tuesday, November 14, 2017

Cleveland Browns: WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE!!!

Tashaun Gipson is a helluva safety when healthy, and we all miss him.  But business is business, and he wanted too much money, period.

On the other hand, what he said about hoping the Jags' offense would "hang 40" on them is understandable.

What he said about feeling sorry for the players was going too far.  If Joe Thomas felt that way, he would have asked to be traded awhile ago.

On that topic, this article by Daryl Ruiter on the state of the Browns is a cut above the usual LaCanfora, but I'm so sick of "it's been widely reported that--" and "It's well-known around the league that--" crap.

Here's how this happens:

1: Mary Kay Cabbott says there should be a "football guy" in the Front Office.

2: Rhona LaCanfora turns this into Hue Jackson wanting a football guy in the Front Office.

3: Mary Kay (and everybody else) cite his BS column as if it's the Bible, and now it's widely reported around the league!  Each new writer embellishes a little.  Then LaCanfora takes that utterly unsubstantiated pile of crap and "Berea is Burning!"

Why can't you see this?  I guarantee you, Mr. Ruiter does, but he says this crap anyway.

Daryl says the Browns keep losing with "no end in sight".  That's a pant-load.  It is inevitable that as these inexperienced players develop and mature, they'll start winning.  That's just reality!

Sure, quarterback is critical, but we've seen Kizer actually improve a little now.  He still screwed up, but screwed up less.  That's how this works!  Dammit you had to learn to walk, didn't you?  That's what's going on here, right in front of you!

Along with Kizer, look at Njoku and DeValve!  Ok so DeValve got stripped, but he's a weapon in season two (when Hue lets him on the field).  Njoku was dropping every other pass, but he's doing better now.

Ricardo Louis doesn't look like a big-play guy or anything, but in his own second season, he's a solid player already.

One day after PFF listed EDGE as the Browns' second biggest need, Ogbah sacked Stafford twice.  Of course he did!  He's a second-year player who led the team in sacks as a rookie!

I told you about Joe Scho who was so good in his second season that Gregg Williams altered his defense to get him on the field!

No end in sight?  Daryl, you need glasses, man.

Don't say it.  If you say "what about everybody else?" I'll TELL you about everybody else!  Too late!  I'll keep going:

Corey Coleman should be back next week.  Fantasy gurus are recommending that owners try to grab him.  Prior to his injury, he was looking really good.  Obviously, because his rookie season was behind him, and now he's mastered the other 90% of the route-tree that he never ran at Baylor!

His quarterback was DeShone Kizer, who at that time was stumbling around not knowing which end was up his own self, and that hurt Coleman's production.  He'll be the number one receiver the instant he's back, and Kizer will lean on him.

Shon Coleman is concussed right now, but has actually outstripped Mitchell Schwartze in his growth-curve, and his athleticism says he'll be better than Schwartze.

What about Sponge Bob Square Pants Rango?  Can you believe HE is the guy who stepped in for Joe Thomas?  I was personally stunned.  Rango was a left tackle in college, but NOBODY thought he could play that position in the pros.

But there he is!  And they left the more athletic Coleman at right tackle!

Rango is, of course, no Joe Thomas, and needs more help vs the speed guys, but this second year player is still impressive.  As a rookie, he started at left guard when Bitonio got hurt, and I believe at right guard too.  He came out of college as an afterthought, and instantly became the top "utility guy".

Here is an extra-smart blue collar lunchpail guy we can love.  He doesn't have much upside, but will improve at left tackle with more reps, and if he doesn't get hurt too bad, will be in the NFL for a decade or more.

That's the boring one.  How 'bout DT Trevon Coley?  Another second year player (swiped from the Ravens), he's a human hand-grenade.  

2017 draft picks Ogunjobe and Brantley look really good too, but Coley has a season under his belt now, and...wow I guess we're all set at defensive tackle for a long time, no?

No end in sight?

"Nobody knows how much impact Josh Gordon can make after most of three years off" what?!?

He's twenty six.  Trust me: Josh Gordon remembers how to play football.  This kind of idiocy is just too much for me.  You can predict he'll fall off the wagon, or even that he won't be as good when he isn't buzzed, but that statement is just plain stupid.

Do I have to get into Peppers, Burgess, Calhoun, Wilson, Nacua, Treggs, Nassib, Orchard etc etc?  No end in sight?  Really?

In spite of that, I included the Ruiter link because the article is worth reading, and substantially pretty objective/informative.  The bullshit is just kind of around the edges (my God he cited LaCanfora as a source!!!)

BAD Daryl!

Anyway, Ruiter thinks the winds of change are blowing again in Berea, and seems to suspect that Hue Jackson is the guy on the spot.  He points out that Mike Singletary was in Cleveland, and mentions the outdated "Rooney Rule" which compels everybody looking for a Head Coach to interview at least one bro.

That's pretty damn sharp, by the way.  Daryl would make a great intel geek!

He didn't leap to conclusions, however:  Singletary could be in consideration for any job, including an assistant coach slot.

But Daryl's premise is bad.  He sees "no end in sight" to the losing.  Obviously, that's wrong.

Hue Jackson is indeed desperate for a win or two, but he almost can't help getting those as his young players improve and two lethal weapons return to his offense.

Daryl refers to the Jackson-bashing in re play-calls and personnel management.

In reality, Hue did make a couple key mistakes, but overall was a good playcaller.  Going for it on fourth down is easy to bash when it fails.  So is everything else when it fails.  Coaches coach, and players play.  The players are expected to execute.

Daryl isn't talking about not zone-blocking for Crowell (by the way I saw some replays, and Hue did indeed zone-block on at least one of Crow's big runs).  He's not talking about either Njoku or DeValve on the bench every down (except DeValve's TD catch had Njoku on the field too, so there is hope).

No--Daryl is talking about starting Kizer right away.

He has a point, actually:

Kevin Hogan actually outperformed Kessler and Kizer in preseason.  Hue went with Kizer based on one game.

At the time, I just assumed that Hue knew what he was doing a whole s-load better than I did.  But in retrospect, I think he screwed up.

How good would Kevin Hogan be right now, had he been given the chance he had EARNED? 

Hogan had a ton more experience in college, and real-game Pro experience in this offense, with these receivers.  Did Hue really think Kizer was that much better than Hogan, that he'd throw the two-year starter who his college coach said wasn't ready, and who downright sucked as a junior--into the fire ahead of him?

Is Kizer better off having stunk up the joint for most of the season than he would have been learning from the bench? (Ok that's debatable--a tough call).

Would Hue Jackson have a win or two had he started Hogan instead?

AB SO LUTELY.  

I think Hue overestimated his "quarterback-whispering".  He thought he could fast-forward DeShone Kizer to competance in short order.  He loves that arm and stature.  He rightfully expected a strong defense and running game, Corey Coleman was healthy, he had a great offensive line---that's why at that time I didn't pick on Hue.

But I wrote right here in this Blog that I would have started Kevin Hogan.  And I still think the sky is the limit for Kevin Hogan.

Why aren't all you permabashers pointing at Gramps McCown, who is kicking ass as the starter for the Jets now?

Well let me tell you:  Josh's release was more likely Hue's call than Sashi's.  And if he had not been waived, Hue would STILL have started Kizer over him, no madder wudd.

In fairness, Josh was far from impressive with the Browns in 2016, and I (and most of YOU) agreed with that move at that time.

Like close to 50% of you agreed with trading down from Wentz, and over 67% of you agreed with trading down from Watson, then drafting Kizer.

Remember?  Of course not!  YOU PEOPLE remember that "Wentz or bust", and "Watson here? Grab him!"  But your memories are imperfect.  

This is part of thinking with your brain: You actually have to remember.

I remember expecting Carson Wentz at number two, but then being overwhelmed by all the draft picks the trade yielded.  I remember loving Sashi Brown for engineering that, and thinking "okay we didn't get the quarterback, but we did get the most of the rest of a TEAM."

And so we did, by the way.

On the Watson trade-down, I remember writing in this Blog before it that I thought most of his critics were fulla crap; he was in two College Championships and beat Nick Saban's team in the second one.

I remember being pissed off when they traded down that time.  Then I remember the Browns drafting Kizer in the second round, and feeling much better, since Hue was in charge, and the consensus had Kizer as the guy with the biggest upside in the whole draft.

I remember most of YOU PEOPLE agreeing with me...and Sashi Brown.

The national Browns-bashing is to be expected, but shame on you local guys (who don't say stupid stuff just to piss me off) for your fuzzy, convenient, self-serving memories.

Those trades aren't over yet, and Kizer and Trubisky are approximately equal right now...except for where they were drafted.

Remember what YOU said at the time.  You can bash Sashi Brown for arguably being wrong, but you need to remember if you agreed with him at the time.

If you bash Sashi Brown for decisions you supported when he made them, you're not being objective.  If you stand back and wait for results and say "That was a dumb move", you are a pansy and a dumbass.  Not to mention a hypocrite.

NOBODY here should be fired.  Perfection is too high a standard.  Bill Belichick isn't perfect.  He was far from perfect here.  I remember YOU PEOPLE calling for his head.

Both Mannings, John Elway Jared Goff, and most other great quarterbacks sucked as rookies.  Take a fkng pill this isn't over yet!






Browns Take Lead in Race for First Overall Pick

The Browns have taken the lead in the race for the first overall draft pick in 2018.  We don't know yet how long Jamie Collins will be out, but Shon Coleman (concussion protocol) is likely to miss at least one game.

However, obstacles to the first overall pick are due to start cropping up:

1: If Randall Telfer also misses time, Hue Jackson will use Matt Lengel to keep Njoku or DeValve on the bench as often as possible, but still might have to use two of his best receivers at the same time.

2: Corey Coleman should play next week, and Josh Gordon the week after.

3: Isaiah Crowell is starting to make some noise.  I was unable to watch the game, so I don't know if Hue mixed in some zone-blocking to help him out, but at this point would be surprised if he did, so Crow might get stuffed again next week.

4: Vs the Lions, the Browns for once ran a balanced offense.  Which came first-completing the deep passes, or averaging 5 yards per-carry? It doesn't matter: A defense must line up to stop one or the other, and that tells the quarterback what to do.  Aside from checking to a quarterback sneak when he did, DeShone Kizer made the right calls.

4a: Kizer had his second-best game of the season.  He could still regress again, but that doesn't fit the typical pattern.

A mentally-impaired Lions writer attacked the Lions for "letting" the horrible stinky crappy Browns get close.  I tried, but can't accept that.  The Lions player who said the Browns had top ten talent wasn't just "being nice".

The Brainiac writer wants to know what happened to Detroit's run defense, for example.  A pretty good offensive line, really good tight ends, and Crow/Duke happened to it!  This idiot didn't even bother separating Kizer from the running backs!  He expects them to "stuff" running quarterbacks just like running backs! 

And what happened to Matt Stafford and company was an excellent front seven and the return of McCourtey.

But I digress: I wish Simpletonians like the aforementioned boob were right about the Browns, but they're not.

And do you hear some of this garbage?  Yeah the sneak in that situation was dumb, but it was a rookie mistake (not really on Hue at all).  If Hue had called it, he'd deserve all the crap he's taking.  But it was the 20-year old rookie quarterback, and rookies make mistakes!

Because of this and...what else?...the Browns "stumbled and bumbled" all game long?

No, a great quarterback and a more experienced team just took control of things later in the game.  The Lions earned the win, and aside from that one screw-up, (and no doubt a few blown assignments and the DeValve strip), experience prevailed.  Oh yeah: and the referees.

I know you're sick of losing, but can't you separate the Lions from the Colts?  That is a top five NFC team with a top five quarterback! Think with your brain dammit what were you expecting?

Unfortunately, it's more likely than not that DeShone Kizer is making slow but steady progress.  Joel Bitonio said that he's now seen most of the defensive variants he will in the future, and implies that he's becoming comfortable now.

Certainly I noticed that he got rid of the ball more quickly, even on the deeper passes.

By the way, many fans don't know this, but deep throws don't neccessarily have to take much time, especially in a Corellian timing offense.  In fact, the quarterback is supposed to throw to the deepest receiver in single coverage, whether he's "covered" or not, because an accurate throw will beat that coverage more often than not.

This is partly why rookies have a hard time pulling the trigger; they've been conditioned not to throw until they confirm separation.

Some of the all-time great long bombs have left quarterback's hands less than 3.1 seconds after the snap.  A deep "bucket pass" hangs like a punt, and a deep flyer has up to 7-10 seconds to reach his spot.

I only heard it on radio.  I know that Kizer missed some deep passes, but I think Jim Donovan might have set the bar too high on these:

There is a reason why dink-and-dunk passers have great completion percentages, and mad bombers don't.  If DeShone Kizer hits 50% 30-plus yards downfield, he's doing good.

Jim is talking about a couple feet here and a couple feet there, and I don't think he groks just how tough that is at that distance.

If your pinky twitches, you miss.  If you slightly under or overestimate speeds, you miss.  If you throw it to the outside shoulder and not the back shoulder, it's broken up or intercepted.  Ditto if the receiver makes the wrong move.  If your mechanics aren't exactly perfect.  If there's a wind-gust!

And to err on the side of out-of-bounds or too deep is a rule of thumb, which Kizer did vs the Lions.  Yes, he was definitely better after the bye vs the Lions.

It looks worse and worse for the Browns getting the first overall pick, the more I think about it (with my brain).

DeShone Kizer did what he did to the Lions defense without Corey Coleman or Gordon.  To top it off, even Kenny Britt stopped screwing up! This looks really bad!

I mentioned Shon Coleman and Jamie Collins missing time, and Hue Lewis's blockheaded use of personnel and blocking schemes, but it might not be enough.

Once both Corey Coleman and Josh Gordon are back, Hue's parking Njoku or DeValve on the bench all the time won't matter anymore, and once defenses fear the deep threat, they can't stack the box, and even sans zone-blocks, Crowell should do serious damage.

PFF is instructive here: Isaiah Crowell is just about as good as it gets after first contact.  He breaks tackles and forces misses (PFF even separates the two!)

As if that wasn't bad enough, since Sashi Brown/Andrew Berry snagged Bryce Treggs off waivers, Duke has played more out of the backfield on third downs, and a little less out of the slot.

Hue Jackson is not dumb enough to sabotage the offense.

AND Gregg Williams runs his defense!

This looks bad. The Browns should beat the Ravens, and maybe the Chargers.  They have a decent shot vs Cinci, and could even upset the Stoolers (like they almost did in game one).

Ok shut tf up and think with your brain! You look like Joe Biden with the smirks and eye-rolls--has any part of this post even registered on your alleged brains? Jeez it's like talking to a wall!

Hey I want to agree with you that this is the shittiest team in the history of football because I want that first overall draft pick, but simply can't shut down my brain like you guys do at will! 

Fortunately, this is still the "all-rookie" team of the NFL, and even if Kizer is improving, he is NOT going to become an elite QB in 2017 even with Coleman/Gordon, and with Hue Lewis's help, they could still manage to win only two games.

So we need to root for the Giants and the 49ers.  The 49ers are actually not the worst threat.  They have talent, and coaching.  They could easily win two more games.

The Giants are far scarier, because they're geezers and lack talent (now).  They could crap out.  The Niners just beat them handily, and are ahead of schedule (this was not as extensive a rebuild, they just got Garopollo, and Shanahan will make sure they can run the ball on anybody).

Simpletonians think Eli Manning is a wizard or something, but in reality, the Giants are as bad overall as they think the Browns are, and he aint God.

The Giants (not the Browns) are the front-runners for the first overall pick, despite the Browns one-game lead.  So everybody in Cleveland should become Giants fans as of now.

It still looks very bad.  The Browns could still be unable to avoid winning three to five games, despite Hue's Martonian blockheadedness and key injuries.

I have little doubt that Black Cloud now agrees with me 100%, since this is negative and pessimistic.  He will now have to find some way to make fun of the Browns while rooting for them.

Black Cloud has a fall-back position: Even if the Browns draft first overall, if it's a quarterback they'll blow it.

I gotta say this: Black Cloud likes to piss me off, and really isn't a cretin...not that he would ever agitate, or anything!  Black Cloud is a "casual fan" who just likes to piss me off.

Anyhoo, he can root for Gordon to fall off the wagon, Corey to break his hand again, Shon to stay off-line for the rest of the season, and Kizer to uh...implode or something, but he needs all of this to make the Browns finish with fewer than two wins.

I have mixed feelings, like most of you.  Since playoffs are impossible this season, my inner-computer says the Browns need the first overall pick.  My inner-analyst says they need to win for psychological reasons, plus for recruiting purposes.

I don't have an "inner-fan", so I don't want them to pointlessly win just "because" when it does more harm than good long-term.

See why I defend this front office?

Hell, I AGREE that they should have drafted DeShaun Watson! I counted it a slam-dunk at the time, and was shocked by the trade-down.

But YOU PEOPLE need to comprehend that DeShone Kizer was the apple of the Browns' eye, that Hue Jackson was all-in for him, and that he signed off on the trade-down.

And YOU PEOPLE need to know that Hue Jackson might be great at nurturing quarterbacks, but might not be so good at picking them!

Even so (listen carefully), Kiser is two years younger than the rest.  He matches Wentz physically, and has the strongest arm.  He is highly intelligent.  He has much less experience than Wentz and Watson.  Hey--time to stick Trubisky in his coffin too right?

With no wide receivers to speak of, as the rawest of rookies, Kizer just engineered 24 points on the Lions in Detroit.

Don't write DeShone Kizer off.  Vs the Lions (pretty good) defense, he did okay.

I mostly hope for the first overall draft pick so they can draft Rosen.  Or Darnold.  Or whoever.

You still don't get it! They can TRADE Kizer (for a first round pick) if Coleman and Gordon inflate his value as I expect them to, and if not, give the Browns maybe THE best 1-2 qb combo in the NFL.

You don't get it because you are spazzing out.  The head-shakes, eye-rolls, and facial contortions make it look like you're having a siezure (or losing a debate).  Cut it out.


Saturday, November 11, 2017

Browns vs Lions: Why Browns Could Win but Won't

Mary Kay thinks the Browns vs Lions is a winnable game.  She's actually more optimistic than I am here, because I see the Lions as one of the best teams in the NFL, with easily a top five quarterback, only now approaching his real potential.

This was an excellent article, though, and her reasons for thinking the Browns have a shot vs the Lions are valid.

Dammit I have to spell this out: Mary Kay never predicted a Browns win.  She just said this game was winnable.  I hate that I have to translate english into english all the time.

Anyway, Mary cited PFF a lot.  They list "edge rusher" as the second need for the Browns behind (I'll give you one guess).  She explains (and provides links) that PFF analysts note that quarterbacks facing a Garrettless Bowns defense have more time to throw than vs a healthy Garrett (I'm filling in blanks here but trust me that's what they mean).

As Mary explains, PFF thinks that an almost-Garrett on the opposite edge would massively upgrade the overall pass rush.

I think they screwed this up, and here's why:

1: I want to see Rodney Ogbahfield's stats with and without Garrett.  Garrett has only played three games so far (with great results), but when he's been out, Ogbah has been THE edge-rusher.  Offenses have compensated.  Ogbah did so-so as a passrusher, but really well overall.

I'm not sure, but I think the PFF talking heads haven't compared Ogbah with Garrett to Ogbah without Garrett.  Know what I mean--like a number two receiver with/without his number one?

2: PFF talking heads may be adhering to one schematic model at the expense of another equally valid one.

This defense has shut down the run.  Ogbah has been a big part of that.  Part of what made Myles Garrett the consensus-best first overall pick was the fact that he could also stop the run; the fact that he wasn't one-dimensional.

PFF is correct if Jim Schwartze is the defensive coordinator here, but the Browns have Gregg Williams.  Rodney Ogbahfield (and Nate Orchard) aren't Myles Garrett, but they're total packages like he is.

Rodney Hassanfield isn't like them, but has his own role to play.

An almost-Garrett would obviously help a lot, but no: Edge-rusher is not the Browns number two need.

I would call that need wide receiver, but Corey Coleman is about to come back, and Josh Gordon is a week behind him (as I've mentioned, for some strange reason DeShone Kizer's "light" might coincidentally go on along this time-line wull wuddya no?).

The Browns real number two need is probably a Joe Thomas Junior or, if Hue the Blockhead Jackson sticks around, a big stud running back (as they kick Crow to the curb---dammit).

But I digress: PFF is a great resource, as is NumberFire and Pro Football Outsiders et al.  Their analytical programs are awesome,  and the writers who "translate" them are also generally very sharp.

But they're not perfect.

Speaking of which, heading into this game, one Lions "analyst" said the Browns defense's front seven sucks🤔.

(To prove that there in intelligent life in Detroit, HERE is an excellent objective scouting report from the Motor City).

Back here on Earth, the Lions will not run well on the Browns, their top tight end is Ebron, and Stafford will be under intense pressure all game long.

The Lions defense is underrated, and improving.  DeShone Kizer will need to be average or above for the Browns to have any chance at all...unless Peppers scores on a punt or kick return.

This is very frustrating, because I expect Hue Lewis to park either DeValve or Njoku on the bench on every down, and not zone-block, and stuff...

That's why I assume the Browns will lose.  Dammit.

Yeah fire Sashi Brown right? You people...

In this article, the writer dutifully quotes the coaches, but never heard of Kai Nacua.  I repeat that Kai might be the new "Angel" starting this week, and Jabrill Peppers will play nickel, two-deep safety, strong, and WIL (ie what he does best).

If I'm right, and the undrafted rookie Nacua is deemed "ready", it will improve deep coverage, pressure, and run defense.

I told you about Kai Nacua.  Stay tuned.