Saturday, February 4, 2017

Dumb Browns Analysis, Legit Analytics

This Cade guy wrote an article smart and insightful enough for me to link to it, but in need of several corrections.

His premise is refreshingly cogent: The Browns are all set at offensive tackle.  Shon Coleman and yes, the infamous Cam Erving are the top contenders on the right side.  Yes, Erving, who is a better tackle than he is a center.

I have addressed this in earlier posts...which Cade might have read...

But the writer concludes, therefore, that the Browns would be foolish to draft Ramczyck 12th overall.  I have addressed this, as well: On a rebuilding team, TALENT trumps immediate impact.  (I guess Cade hasn't read that one yet.  Give him a couple days.)

And this is where I expect DePodesta to buck the trend.  He could well draft Joe Thomas's heir apparent BEFORE he urgently needs to!  Since, you know, you never draft or start developing a player before your venerable star is injured or retires, right?  Then you reach for a rookie or overpay a second tier free agent and tell your quarterback to wear his best flak jacket and track shoes, right?

And Cade cites "huge" holes at OLB, safety, and edge rusher.

Give me a break.  The Browns are overloaded with 3-4 outside linebackers and 4-3 edge rushers.  Opposing offenses were able to get early leads and run the defense over.  The defense failed to put opposing offenses in obvious passing situations.  Joe Haden played hurt and every other secondary position was annihilated.

I can't blame Ray Horton for not running press/man like he wanted to, and when opposing quarterbacks did pass, they got rid of it in nanoseconds.  Ogbah and Nassib were both rookies, as was Holmes, and of the rest, Nate Orchard was the "seasoned veteran" in his second season!

Cade is already done, but I can't stop: Williams will want to run more 4-3 than 3-4 with these players, and nickels and dimes are the new base defenses anyway; Four man fronts work best here, so even 4-3's are more often 4-2's, and who do you hate more: Kirksey or Collins huh?

Wait!  There's MORE!  Shobert and Alexander aren't 3-4 OLBs but ARE 4-3 OLBs.

Just when you thought I was done: Williams has often used a safety at linebacker.  (It's semantics, really:  It's really a big nickel or dime, but a safety sets up in the box and is assigned a gap).

In short, the Browns have edge-rushers and outside linebackers out the yinyang, and I can't wait to see Shobert and Alexander in their S E C O N D seasons in this GREGG WILLIAMS scheme!

Ok Cade is long dead, but I need to rescussitate him so I can kill him again:

It's correct to say that Campbell was unimpressive in his second season, but it was only his second season.  He's still the guy that tore up his Senior Bowl, and it's still too early to write him off.

Derrick Kindred is being penalized for having been injured as a starter in his rookie season, however, which is outrageous.  Cade, like so many others, has already carved his tombstone what the hell!?!

Ed Reynolds played well overall, and was sometimes outstanding in only his second season, and in his first opportunity as a starter.  More importantly for (especially) Gregg Williams, he made the correct coverage calls, and was aggressive vs the run.

Back to Kindred: He likes to hit, and Williams will like him a lot.  The biggest problems both he and Campbell have had was taking poor angles and missing tackles.  The combination of experience and Gregg Williams lack of tolerance for missed tackles will either make them both a lot better right away, or park them on the bench.  Why assume the latter?

These two are candidates for the (imperative) "enforcer" role in Williams' scheme.  For all his many blitzes to work, the short and intermediate middle has to be hazardous to receivers' health, since that's where most of the hot reads will be.

Kindred, in particular, showed great promise as a rookie.  Campbell isn't the same kind of punisher, but is faster and can make big plays in coverage.

This writer could have said that the Browns could use an upgrade at safety, but no, he cited a "huge" need there, so he is fulla beans.  Watch those adjectives, Cade!  

I find it neccessary to repeat this for maybe the 15th time: The Browns foremost need on defense is one or more BIG cornerbacks.  Not even neccessarily better cornerbacks, since the guys they have are surprisingly good when not matched up against skyscrapers...or asked to TACKLE people dammit...

You can say that every single position on this defense could use an upgrade, and not make me work you over.  But this "huge need" crap is hyperbole, and I just can't stand hyperbole.  Cade could even have gotten away with "need" sans the "huge" part.

But go ahead and check out his article, since the bulk of it is smarter than most of the garbage out there.

Speaking of rebuilding, we can absolutely count on a real tight end out of this draft.  It's perhaps historicly deep at this position, and that's a beautiful thing for a team with a 32 year old TE who is a half-assed blocker, a second year tight end who is a jumbo wide receiver, and offensive linemen who sometimes line up at tight end, ya no?  The Browns might even draft TWO of them.

...ok is any of this sinking in yet? Barnidge is as old as Joe Thomas, right?  DeValve will never be much of an in-line blocker soo...

Aw crap ok I WILL spell it out: Hue Jackson WANTS to copy Bill Belichick and run two-tight end offenses (like everybody else).

Almost nobody else can do it like Lord Insideous did it when Gronk was healthy, but Hue can make do with a jumbo wide receiver and a real tight end, although ideally you want two real tight ends.

The idea is that this is a run-set.  Just as opposing defenses were altering their rosters to solve 3 and 4-wr spread offenses, Belichick got Gronk, and started drafting and signing other tight ends who could block in line AND catch passes AND set up outside.

This was tacticly brilliant, but also frugal: Tight ends are undervalued in every draft, so he could skip the bigshot wide receivers and passrushers, and "settle" for the tight ends later and cheaper.

Anyway, If you have two tight ends who can block defensive ends and 3-4 OLB's at the point of attack, right next to an offensive tackle, the defense almost has to deploy it's base defense to honor the run.

Base defenses involve a front seven and four DBs.  The offense with these guys CAN run, and also choose where they run, but can also line up as a 3 or 4-wide, and can also send one or both tight ends (off play-action) on deeper routes.

Just when everybody is keeping two extra secondary guys and deleting linebackers and defensive linemen, Belichick comes up with this.

Runs aside, defenses have no answer in the passing game.  The run-threat pulls defenders into the box, and even the in-line two tight end set extends the box laterally, spreading them out.

You can't run a wide nine against it, so nevermind that...oknevermind.  Lord Insideous is amazing and I could go on and on about him.  DePodesta is here to try to stay ahead of the game as Bill has: Identify trends and exploit them.

One of the best things about Hue Jackson is that he's not an egomaniac.  This has become pretty clear since he's been hired.  Clearly, "on the same page" really means a two-way street between him and the front office.  Hue is listening to DePodesta, and more often than not agreeing with him.

In other words, Hue Jackson is not a BLOCKHEAD, like some most Head Coaches are.  Hue won't let Paul pick any particular player for him, but is open to suggestions like "everybody is doing this, so we should do that".

But I digress: Anyway Hue wants more real tight ends, and knows Barnidge has seen his best days, and the Browns might well draft two tight ends in this draft, even if one goes to the practice squad.

They are even more likely to draft two cornerbacks who are at least 5'10" (one or both before the third round...ok maybe one atop the third).

I was shocked last season by the four wide receivers they drafted.  In fairness, they weren't sure about Pryor, ok?

But this might be a real MO: If you have extra picks, find the deepest position in the draft, hammer it hard, and let them fight it out.  The competition makes them the best they can be, and even if you lose half of them, after the dust has settled, you have upgraded a position, and possibly unearthed a star.

Here's more REAL analytics: In a given draft, you don't draft high at the deepest positions unless somebody is exceptional..unless it's a quarterback, of course DUH.

If I'm right, the Browns will load up on defensive backs and tight ends in this draft I HAVE SPOKEN.

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