Cleveland Browns Draft Stuff

Mitch Trubisky and Deshaun Watson are more than numbers, but the numbers still matter.  Mitch has the edge on most counts.

Mitch had a 5:1 TD/Int ratio, whereas Deshaun's was about 2.4:1.  I initially thought this was because Watson was more aggressive and went deep more often, but then found out that Trubisky's yards per attempt were 8.4, vs Watson's 7.9.

Watson did throw 41 touchdowns to Trubisky's 30, but I'm not sure how significant that is.

Trubisky completed 68% of his passes to Watson's 67%, with a QBR of 157.9 to Watson's 151.15.

I'm not sure what some of this means, because I don't know enough about their respective conferences, or the defenses they faced.  

I do know that Clemson had great receivers, and Trubisky did not, and that Trubisky had to come from behind more often.

That's not all there is to it, either.  Trubisky appears better built and more solid, but isn't nearly the athlete Watson is.  Watson also played in two National Championships, and willed his team to a last-second win in the last one.

You can't ignore these things!

I have to mention Patrick Mahomes here: 41 tds, 10 interceptions, 8.5 yards per attempt, 65.6%, 157+ QBR.  You can't ignore that, either.  In terms of pure, raw statistics, Trubisky is first, Mahomas second, and Watson third (in a close group, except for Watson's yards per attempt and TD/Int ratio.)

Now, Hue Jackson, Berry, and the scouts are the guys who will dig under those numbers into intangibles like football intelligence, leadership, and mechanics.  Is this issue mental or physical?  Is it just a bad habit? Can we fix it?  Will he be the same in this system?

But DePodesta, mainly, will dig in under the numbers.  PPF, for example, took Watson's 17 interceptions and broke them down: Six were on deflections, and one was miscommunication.  Eleven were actually his fault.

Trubisky and Mahomes will no doubt get the same treatment, but I haven't seen those numbers yet.

Here's where it gets deeper: With the help of the scouts and Hue, the geeks will break the interceptions down further, looking for patterns.

It could turn out that a guy only threw picks that were his fault running to his left, or throwing across his body while scrambling right.  Or only on deeper ones into the end zone.  Or off his back foot while falling backwards.

Then Hue will know: This guy gets too greedy near the end zone.  That guy tries to do stuff he can't do.  The other guy looks at his own guys instead of the sneaky safety hiding in the weeds.

Then he talks to the guy, and decides whether or not he can fix it, and how hard that will be.

By the time this process runs it's course, it's anybody's guess how Hue Jackson will rank these guys.  As likely as not, he won't agree with Mayock, Kiper, or the other guys.

I left out DeShone Kizer here on purpose.  I can't agree that Hue might fall in love with him, because his specific issues are on quick, short passes and decision-making.

Some analysts read Hue Jackson wrong, or don't get his priorities straight.  He pretty much ran the offense he wants to run with Andy Dalton in Cincinnati, and then picked Cody Kessler when he got here.

Three of the quarterbacks who fit his ideal, semi-west coast passing game are those I listed.  Kizer is more of a mad bomber.

Hue still hasn't got back to me yet, but I advised him to imagine what Mahomas or Trubisky would have done with that Clemson offense.  In my amatuer opinion, they would have done as well or better.

Bill Livinston says don't fool around this time, and just draft the best quarterback first overall.  I can't agree with the simplistic approach, but Bill makes some good points to back up some of what I've said.

He points to the Texans.  They did lose AJ Watt, but Clowney finally went nuts, and they sacked everybody all the time.  And came up short.

The Raiders were kicking ass until Carr went down, and then?  And they had a great passrusher too.

Once again, every team that made the Conference Championships had elite quarterbacks, but not necessarily elite passrushers.  See how that works?

Here is a pretty sentient mock draft from Factory of Sadness (Ryan Rosco).  Garrett first, naturally, but then offensive tackle Ramczyk, for the same reasons I cited several weeks ago.

But Ryan dismisses Cam Erving as a right tackle altogether, and calls Corey Coleman a long-term project.  That's just plain dumb.  Still, I like the pick because Joe Thomas can't play forever.

Atop the second, Ryan takes Mahomes, but correctly says that he could shoot up the boards during the combine, and the Browns might have to make a move to nab him.

Trading up into the first round isn't bad, because first rounders are signed for a year longer, and the trade compensation isn't that painful.  The top pick in the second round has significant extra value, too, as it is highly tradeable, like a poor man's first overall pick.

At least Ryan doesn't just ignore quarterback.  

Then it's cornerback, safety, and center check.  Ryan's safety is Utah's Marcus Williams in the third, and his center is Tyler Orlosky of WV (and how could he suck with a name like that?).

Williams is a playmaker in a very strong safety class.  Orlosky is just a solid, blue collar guy who would compete at a percieved soft spot on the offensive line.

I'll skip the rest (5'10" cornerback next, but Ryan says he plays bigger).

The big thing is that Ryan comprehends that quarterback is important, and although he totally blew it on the right tackle situation, he can also count, and imagine a time when Joe Thomas is no longer here.

Also, although he does grab a big bruising running back late, he isn't hallucinating about an urgently desperate need there, or at linebacker, or at wide receiver, so Ryan gets an A-minus.

And yeah...I'm liking Mahomes too (shhh!)