Long time NFL GM Charlie Casserly didn't get the memo from the bad analyst I vivisected in my last post, and had the temerity to mock Jimmy Garopollo to the Cleveland Browns.
Forget Mary Kay, Mayock, and the ex-players too: Casserly is an old veteran dealmaker, and you guys need to take this possibility a little more seriously, as of now.
Some serious analysts have been pouring icewater on this rumor of late, but they are late. In my first post on this subject, I cited exactly the same reasons they cite now about why the Sith Lord in New England would never do this:
Father Time is undefeated, and eventually he'll get the almost 40 year old Tom Brady...and soon. Jimmy G isn't like Cassel, or Mallett. Kyle Shanahan (and I) were not alone in wondering why everybody didn't love Jimmy G.
Just check it out, and compare the respective predraft scouting reports on these three quarterbacks. Garopollo also had the most starts in college. He did run a spread system, but experience is experience (ask Bill Parcells or Gil Brandt or any other real pro).
Jimmy was stellar in his preseason games (twelve of them), and contrary to popular belief, these were NOT utterly meaningless.
I said all that, then remembered the other side: The MONEY side, which these other guys don't seem to have taken seriously enough yet:
Tom Brady just won another Superbowl. He shows no signs of slowing down. The Falcons beat him up pretty good, but he kept getting up. He has the quickest release in football.
This five more years stuff is pretty silly, but two or three is not unreasonable, based on what we all just saw.
These writers expect Jimmy G to accept less money and collect more splinters just so he can take over for Tom when HE is pushing 30?
No! No real competitor would accept that! It's not just the money: He wants to PLAY! I'm sure he loves the Patriots, but he loves playing football more!
Even if Jimmy were willing to watch 2-3 more years of his career drift on by unremarked, he'd reasonably ask for his market value, and that is around 18 million per season at this point. STARTER money, because the teams who will contend for his services will want him as a STARTER, and offer him that.
Bill no doubt wants to keep Garopollo (btw whoever asked "why do the Patriots want to get rid of him so bad?" needs to be sterilized before he can piss in the gene pool), but there's this thing called a "salary cap", you see?
By the way, the Patriots have cap room only temporarily. This will go away shortly, as several critical free agents are re-signed...can't you see this coming?
Bill can't PAY Tom and Jimmy both. The writers I refer to here are smart people, and I'm not bashing them. But they also don't understand how Bill thinks. Hold on to this kid for one more year and then watch him walk away, or get some serious draft picks for him now hmmm...
No "hmm" about it! More like "duh", right!?
Casserly gets it. That's why he says it will cost the Browns the 12th overall pick (after they draft Garrett cool! Maybe he's been reading my blog! Look around a month ago!)
I admit it: I want this, because (if I knew what Hue knows and agreed with myself about Jimmy G) this is exactly what I would do. And trust me: Sashi Brown hopes Hue will rubber stamp this move, because he wants to do it too.
I believe that one reason why the Pryor extention is on the front page now is so that Jimmy and his agent will take these Browns seriously, and negotiate in earnest.
I still think Deshaun Watson is being "misdiagnosed", and that Trubisky might well actually be a future franchise guy himself, but grabbing either of them at 12 is more of a daydream than anything else.
ALL of these guys are shotgun spread guys. Mike Mayock says they track their receivers, and not the secondary. Their systems are designed to get one receiver open against predictable coverage and mismatches. There is sometimes a bailout option (on the same side of the field), but no third or fourth reads.
None of these guys has had the chance to prove they have the mental hardware to manage a pro offense under fire, and this is why Mike Mayock would be "scared to death" to draft any of them high (and, in fairness, why many scouts are scared to death of Watson's interceptions).
Look at boxing: A lot of super-tough brawlers get destroyed in the ring. Some, like Joe Lewis or Rocky Marciano, can be taught not to lunge, keep their hands up, elbows in, combinations and all that crap, but some can't:
The instant they get their bell rung, they revert. They're off-balance, with their gloves down; they're all offense, no defense. It's the same with quarterbacks. For every great spread air-raid quarterback who succeeds, five fail.
Garopollo has spent years in the gym, with pro trainers. Everything is muscle-memory for him now. He's only had one and a half real fights, but he's been sparring against real hardasses for a long time.
When he gets his bell rung, he won't revert. Get it?
In this situation, in which every potential rookie quarterback is high-risk, Garopollo's absolute FLOOR is "competent".
Still with me here -snap-snap!? This analySIS stuff bores normal people I was just wondering anyway:
Based on his college stats, scouting reports, preseason performances, and six real game quarters, it is far more likely that Garopollo can at least be a top ten quarterback with a reasonable supporting cast, and is ready to start immediately.
Remember: For three years, he ran New England's scout team. He has repeatedly run every offense in the NFL, including Hue Jackson's.
So while it is possible that both Trubisky AND Watson three years from now could be better than Jimmy G is, it's also possible that one or both of them sputter and die.
For Sashi Brown and Hue, Casserly's prediction is absolutely the safest course of action in this situation at this time. Jimmy Haslam has promised to give this regime time, but if they screw up, he will be justified if he fires them at around the end of 2018.
This is taking lemons and making lemonade.
Plan B, I now think, could be Patrick Mahones. Jim Miller loves him. Mike Mayock says he has the most arm talent; Brett Favre type arm talent. Pinpoint accurate 52 yards in the air arm talent.
Per these guys (note not me, THEM-and himself, as I heard them interview him), Patrick needs to focus on his footwork. He tends to throw off-balance too often when he has chances to re-set his feet and stabalize his throwing platform (Brady is THE model for this). When his feet are planted, Mahones is extremely accurate, with perfect touch, at any range, crossing or vertical.
His offense is a little different, as he got to indeed go deep more than most of the other guys not named Watson, so nobody questions his deep accuracy.
Notably, he is a junior, coming out early. Mike Mayock feels that he's not "ripe" yet, and that if he'd played another season in college, he might possibly have been the top quarterback in the 2018 draft.
As it is, Mayock projects him as a high second round pick. The Browns draft first in the second round.
Like the others, Mahones ran an air-raid offense. Like the others, he hasn't proven his mental hardware. But he has practiced from under center daily (he says he also needs to work on his drops; 3, 5, 7 steps. "For the timing and my linemen, so they know where I am"--he gets all that, at least, see?).
Here's an insurance plan: Chad Kelly. I talked up Jim's more athletic nephew somewhat when I expected him to make waves at the Senior Bowl, which is no doubt why he got his knee tore up (sorry Chad).
Acl and lateral miniscus, whatever the hell that is anyway: The surgeries were successful and the prognosis is he'll be fine, but not until very late 2017 at the earliest, and 2018 for any intelligent management team.
Chad may not even be drafted because of this.
In one of my past lives, I cruised tree lawns on garbage day, looking for stuff to sell at flea markets. Old clocks, broken coffee tables, artwork, etc., but mostly stuff that was damaged or broken.
I had some skills, and freinds with skills, so I could fix this stuff, and turn junk into a few bucks for beer or whatever.
Well, that's Chad Kelly. Chad is more like a clock than a coffee table, though. He looks like he's worth money if I get him working ok and shine him up a little, but who knows?
Regardless of what the Browns do with Garopollo, Mahones, or anybody else, they probably SHOULD nail down Kelly with their lowest draft pick (and I don't need to defer to Hue Jackson on this; it's a Sashi Brown thing).
I'm not certain that Kelly would even take up an IR spot on the 2017 roster. But he could be in the meetings, learning the ropes.
Chad Kelly has real talent and potential, and should be ready for the 2018 season. If Garopollo, Mahones, or Rodney Kesslerfield or whoever works out, fine. If not, here's Chad!
That's insurance. Mike Mayock favorite tight end Jake Butt is not.
I need to self-correct here: In an earlier post, I cited Mike Mayock in declaring this draft full of real tight ends. What Mayock actually said was that there are tons of pass-catching tight ends in this draft. I screwed up big-time here: I heard what I wanted to hear, rather than what he said. Shame on me.
Anyway, Butt is one of only TWO real tight ends Mike has identified in this draft.
The other guy is a physical freak who dominated the Senior Bowl and will probably go in the first round.
Butt isn't a freak, but IS the better blocker of the two, and a super-RELIABLE receiver who just isn't as much of a deep threat big-play guy.
Well, Butt done tore his acl, and will be a non-factor in 2017.
Healthy, he was a second rounder, with an outside shot at the first round. Crippled, he still might go in the fourth, or even the third...or undrafted (as idiotic as that would be).
If he's there in the fourth round, Sashi needs to nab and stash this guy.
Jake Butt is out of Michigan, and is pro-ready. He could be the Browns starting tight end in 2018. In addition to blocking in-line, he does everything else Barnidge does, ok?
Rob Gronkowski was obviously the best tight end in his draft class, but had back issues (HUGE red flag!) so he slid deep into the second round, where the Sith Lord nabbed him dirt-cheap.
Butt isn't Gronk, but an acl isn't a spine, either. Gary Barnidge isn't Gronk, either, but wouldn't you jump on him in the fourth...I mean if he could shove defensive ends around? Get it?
In general, this is the bargain bin of the draft. There are the projects, with great physical talent but very raw, but then also the crips:
Injured guys nobody wants because they're spazzes.
...Ok that's not quite fair: We in Cleveland think Hair-Trigger Haslam is the only owner that hasn't given front offices any time at all. In reality, the life expectancies of Head Coaches and General Managers approximate those of big running backs.
They generally can't afford to think into the future, because if they don't win enough THIS year, they're fired. Drafting a Chad Kelly or a Jake Butt, who can't help NOW, even on special teams, is hard for them.
I submit to you that you are wrong about Jimmy Haslam, and that this new regime DOES have time, and that he will be patient. I'll go into what he's done with Pilot/Flying J in a later post, but I probably know this guy better than you do.
Long story short: Jimmy and Sashi TALK TO EACHOTHER, believe it or not!
You know, like "We're not going to reach the playoffs next year. You get that right?"
"Yep".
"Whew! Ok then I want to use some of the lower picks on injured players, and others who won't do shit next year...you want a dynasty, right?"
"Like the Steelers. Yes."
"Perfect. Well, buy low, sell high. Low risk, high reward, diversification. Butt is a can't-miss Barnidge upgrade in 2018, which is the earliest year I think we can contend in this division. He'll upgrade the blocking, and frankly the receiving too, since Gary is fading--I've got the numbers--"
"No I get it."
"We'll get 3 mil cap space back on the turnover, and might even get a 7th rounder out of it too. Kelly is different. He could crap out, but it wouldn't hurt us at all. We're loaded on special teams. He's plan c, in case all the other guys crap out".
"You think they might?"
"Ask Hue. He doesn't. This is my idea, but Hue does like him. Don't put all your eggs in one--"
"I get it. Go on."
"That's all for now, but I wanted you to know, we're building you a dynasty. It will, indeed, take some time. This is how the Steelers, Patriots, and--"
"I get it."
That's almost certainly not close to the real conversations, but for my purposes works here: Jimmy Haslam is not an impatient control freak, throwing temper-tantrums. His wife Dee sounds pretty smart/cool as well. Bringing her in was partly a PR move to back YOU guys off.
This is my impression: Sashi, Paul, and Hue truly have time. At least two more years, and more likely three or four. They're not the Steelers or Packers or Patriots yet, but they're more secure than most other staffs.
For the first time since he bought the Cleveland Browns, Jimmy got all HIS top picks, you see? He believes in them, and will give them time. Yes, he will.
SOOO, Sashi can "waste" draft picks on projects and injured players, and take some risks.
The Garopollo thing is different, of course. Missing on a quarterback spells this regime's doom, because (in reality, on this planet) Cody Kessler wins at least four games next season...or six with Garrett.
No such thing as a franchise quarterback tree. Not 7th or 10th in most drafts. It could be now or never for the Browns.
Yeah...Myles Garrett snd Jimmy G...wow. I hope Casserly is right.
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