The Browns released their only veteran wide receiver and only smurf! What are they doing? Now they have to get another veteran mentor and another microbe!
WRONG.
Now I know who to BLAME for letting Taylor Gabriel go while keeping Hawkins: Hue Jackson. Not Sashi Brown. I know everybody will want to blame Sashi, because Hue is God and stuff, but that was Hue's call.
You can blame Sashi for not overriding him if you want. Hey Mary Kay! Still think Hue wants a football guy? Why? He's a football guy and Sashi listens to him, and you get this!)
I get this. Hue is really smart, but is still a Head Coach, which makes him at least slightly Martonian. "Veteran leadership", right? Got to have it! Can't have all those brand new wide receivers running in the wrong direction and trying to catch with their feet and stuff!
And ok, Hue was at least partly right: Every single receiver except Hawk was a rookie including, for all intents and purposes, Terrelle Pryor. I have no doubts at all that Hawkins taught those guys a thing or three.
And as I posted a couple weeks ago, Hue is NOT following the herd with the mandatory microbe slot receiver model. He only kept Hawkins because of his experience, and now he's done his part, so it's all big guys now.
Hue is making this offense a little different than everybody else, to give himself an edge. A team built to stop a microbe is less able to stop a big guy in the slot (or a Baylor). Let everybody else copy Belichick. Hue isn't a copycat.
Hell, he might see what Belichick does season-by-season and KEEP doing the opposite, because around 25 other Head Coaches will copy Bill, and all the defenses will draft and recruit to stop New England.
I like Hawkins as both a player and a person, so don't get me wrong. For that matter, I remember Edwards Scizzorhands (Braylon Edwards), and wouldn't be surprised to see Taylor Gabriel start dropping passes again. At least Hawk had his head on straight. At least you could trust him.
All the punk receivers got baptized now, and know what they need to do. Soon, pundits will start pointing out 30 year old wide receivers the Browns need to sign, but I don't believe Hue is still thinking that way.
I'm not saying they won't draft a truly exceptional microbe who slides because he's so tiny, but that microbes are not targets. Wide receivers are not targets, either, although there are a bunch of really impressive ones in this draft, and a best available could sneak in here on day 2 or 3.
I doubt it, since there are also so many tight ends, running backs, safeties, cornerbacks, defensive linemen, and even safety/linebacker hybrids in this draft, and one of the eleven picks will be a quarterback, no matter what.
Hawk was let go now to give him a better chance to sign on with another team, and that is a classy thing to do. Potential free agent signees notice this stuff.
I was going to talk about Peterson, Wells, Dobbs, Kelly, and the other second tier prospects here, but I don't want to burn out before the combine is even over.
But I do really like Josh Dobbs, the Rocket Scientist, for his iron discipline and obvious brains. Once Hans and Franz torture him for 14 months, he'll be a big, strong dude. I know what I said about brain wiring and how even real smart guys sometimes can't process fast enough for the NFL, but that's my only concern about Todd.
He WILL take coaching, work hard, master all the techniques and mechanical corrections, know everybody else's job like Manning did and Brady does, and (oh yeah) run with the wide receivers too.
All the other air raid quarterbacks have the same question marks mentally, so what the hell? I'll bet on the dedicated super-smart guy! Who Hue Jackson got to coach for a week at the Senior Bowl.
Asterisk: If not Trubisky first overall or somebody else at 12 or atop the second round.
Nobody but Tyrod Taylor or Jimmy Garopollo will start in 2017 ahead of Rodney Kesslerfield, however, including RG3.
...Well, RG3 will get another bite at the apple in camp, but I'm just predicting that Cody will beat him out. In fact, I don't think Griffin will make the final roster.
As I have proven several times over to any objective, sentient reader, the offense has some soft spots, but the words "urgent" and "desperate" have no place here. In fact it's getting so obnoxious that I have to confiscate these words again, until certain writers prove they can get along without abusing them.
This includes center. Stop the Pocic stuff right now. He might be a right tackle, but he's six-freaking seven, ok? He's not a center!
The Ohio State guy is a real center.
I like Butts at tight end, but pundits have pointed me at Ashland's Adam Shaheen. CBS Sports say he's 6'5", but everybody else says he's 6'7". Everybody pegs him at 277 lbs and estimates his 40 at 4.7.
He's been a man among boys where he plays, and given that level of competition, even a second round pick might be optimistic for him.
He blocks, but they can't even know how much work he needs on that, because he's actually bigger than, and has a reach advantage on, most of those defensive ends, and can just sort of smash all the linebackers.
One thing everybody does know is that he's extra-fast for his size, has great hands, and wins all contests.
One guy likened him to Seth DeValve oh puh-LEEZ! Shaheen is MUCH bigger and stronger, and DeValve is not close to the same kind of red zone threat, as some linebackers are bigger and taller than he is.
What's more, I read that Shaheen runs sloppy routes; DeValve is a converted wide receiver--no comparison here. Shaheen didn't HAVE to run precise routes against the Little Sisters of the poor. He just ran over everything in his way and hollered "hit me I'm open!".
But I like him for those reasons: He's not deemed "ready" yet, despite his speed, strength, reach, and hands, so he won't be drafted high. He does have a lot to prove, but he just might be the best real tight end in this draft (or not...by the way it pisses me off that I have to tack on disclaimers because some of you read "just might be" as "is and I want to have his baby" dammit).
Anywhere in the third or lower for this guy. Or Butts.
Gary Barnidge is in his last season, but he and DeValve will get most of the 2017 reps. Telfer is the only good blocker, but might well be a gmf, since if Hue wants a tight end that can't catch, he's got a ton of right tackles and zone centers he can use.
As unbelievable as some fans find this, the 1-15 Browns WILL draft several players who will play little, if any, in 2017.
This is how you "build through the draft". You thought it was just only draft guys who can contribute immediately through the first four rounds, then special teamers and guys you can cut after that, right?
That's the usual model, so I can't knock you for that. Jimmy Haslam has fired a bunch of people in a hurry, and was the poster boy for Owner Impatience, but throughout the NFL, the majority of Head Coaches and General Managers are on the hot seat each and every year.
Typicly, they have to win at least a couple games more than they did the previous year, or they're fired. If they win 11 games, lose in round 2 of the playoffs, lose four critical veterans, and only win nine games the next season, they're fired.
Browns fans look around and see Marvin Lewis, Mike Tomlin, and Harbaugh, and the same GMs as well. We remember riding Bill Belichick out on a rail (yeah I know Modell fired him as a Raven but there was still a lynch mob is all I'm sayin), and we think Hare-Trigger Haslam is a spazz.
But he's not, and he's not even unusual.
JIMMY HASLAM designed this business model, finally with Hue Jackson, his first choice head coach. (Not his fifth or sixth option, after the first five ran away screaming.)
JIMMY HASLAM TOLD US this was a total rebuild, and would take "several years". He probably didn't expect 1-15, of course, but he gets it. He's in on it. If the Browns win TWO games in 2017, he's not going to go nuts.
By the way, I haven't researched Hue Jackson's contract details, but I'm certain it's a LOT of money, and all of it guaranteed. That was certainly partly why Hue Jackson signed here and didn't keep owner-shopping. Haslam made sure,
Anyway, this regime has time. Jimmy was part owner of the Steelers. Ignorant pundits say he learned nothing there, but I'm telling you: All along, he's been looking for a sound foundation on which to build his team.
That's the Head Coach he wanted in the first place, and a front office he knows and trusts.
The dinosaurs and Martonians still smirk and snark, but only because it's new. Hell, can't you even give Jimmy Haslam credit for knowing how to organize a business!?!
I was impressed. Sashi Brown in charge of personnel (oh my god!!!) and Hue in charge of coaching, but not subservient to Brown. Hue is EQUAL to Sashi Brown, as both report only to the owner.
The sky is falling! We're all gonna die! It's chaos!
Nah! Everybody is getting along just fine, and are all on the same page. Jimmy (and Dee I guess) retained their throne, but don't stick their nose into it. They wait for Sashi or Hue to come to them to settle some conflict between them, but so far there haven't been any.
And listen, Mary Kay: There won't be. Sashi controls the roster, but knows his limitations, and will generally do what Hue wants him to do, period. He and DePodesta will throw analytics at him (and I assure you persuade him sometimes), but they know he's the head football guy, and will keep deferring to him.
I don't know why all these blockheads find this so strange. Is everybody else in football a powermad micromanaging egomaniac or something? Are Sashi and Hue freaks because they are both reasonable? I swear, I just don't get all this snarky skepticism.
But I digress: This regime has TIME. They will draft and acquire players based on talent and potential first, and "readiness" second, the way the Ravens, Steelers, Bengals, Patriots, Packers, and Seahawks do.
Jimmy Haslam gets this. This is how dynasties are built. It takes time.
Corey Coleman is one example: Why don't people understand that he was a Baylor wide receiver? He had to learn the whole route-tree from the ground up! They knew he'd zig when he was supposed to zag and screw up depths and stuff when they drafted him don't you get that!?
They drafted him in the first round over more "NFL-ready" guys because he's got otherworldly talent; the most of any wide receiver in his class! He was drafted for what he would do in his second season and beyond!
And SHON Coleman! He was recovering from an injury, so he slid. He was not expected to (neccessarily) start as a rookie; he had some rough edges. He was drafted for what HE would do in year two and beyond!
Man, you guys wasted no time writing a bunch of these guys off when they're right on schedule! Hue and Sashi must be rolling their eyes and laughing:
"Check this out: 'Dire need at right tackle.' Look, we're supposed to sign...he's 33...oh my ribs..."
In fact, I've been saying that the Browns can not contend in 2017, but I might have been pessimistic. I just saw the Steelers get SMASHED, the Bungles miss again, and the Ravens get exposed.
The Browns should hold onto Pryor, Coleman will be a lethal weapon, Bitonio and Greco will be back, whoever wins the 4-way contest at right tackle WILL kick ass, Duke is still here, Crowell showed Beast-mode symptoms last season, DeValve is ready to emerge, along with one or more of the rookie receivers, and yes I'm telling you: Cody Kessler: Trust me on this one.
I don't hate Ray Horton, but do like Gregg Wiliams more, and this defense is very talented.
Collins and Shelton are two keys, but if you think Haden is washed up you are wrong. Ogbah and Nassib will be scary in their second seasons, and get this:
Both free agency and the draft are packed full of 3-tech dts, safeties, and big cornerbacks! Free agency itself offers pro calibre guards, perhaps a center (I love the Green Bay guy but dammit he gets hurt too much which is why he's available).
The draft itself presents a ton of running backs, on top of the other stuff.
The Browns have over 110 mil even after signing Collins, and with him, Pryor, Shelton, Jackson, Gregg Williams, Thomas, Haden, Bitonio, Barnidge, Coleman etc. don't count on stuck on stupid these young veterans will take the Browns seriously (and sheep and dumbasses need not apply anyway).
That's right! The Browns could contend for a playoff spot in 2017, even if Cody Kessler is their QB! Yeah, I said it!
Of the top five picks, one will be a quarterback...even if it's Jimmy Garopollo. One might be that not-ready-for-primetime tight end, but three should start, or at least contribute a lot.
Between this and YOUNG free agents, the Browns could nail down five or more starters or rotational guys, including one real stud (like Cinci guard Reiter).
This would represent around a 20% upgrade, with a much greater upgrade in depth at every position.
This is only part of the whole: The biggest upgrades will come from first and second year players naturally and predictably PREDICTABLY DO YOU UNDERSTAND? being better than they were in their previous seasons.
I return to the Colemans here. Nevermind Shon, since he could lose out to Erving (that's right: Cam Erving was a top notch LEFT tackle before he switched to center), but Corey Coleman?
That's just plain scary! THAT guy can do everything Antonio Brown can do, except he's taller, and much faster!
...Ok well, if he keeps dropping passes nevermind. And getting open is partly being smart, so no guarantees here...but Coleman's upside is astronomical, and contrary to some idiotic reports, he's the number TWO receiver here! Terrelle Pryor has been, and will remain, number one.
That's right: Even if Kessler is the quarterback in 2017, the 1-15 Browns can contend in 2017 without deviating from their long-term talent/potential first dynasty-building philosophy.
Which sucks, since next year is expected to yield a bumper-crop of elite quarterbacks.
See? Doesn't it all make sense now? You know: The Browns get the first overall pick and can't get a franchise quarterback, then win ten games and can't get one of three or four wihout trading their whole draft away?
Yeah I know: You were laughing at me at first, but now you know I might be right, because this is Cleveland, and well...?
Monday, February 27, 2017
Rodney Kesslerfield and the Cleveland Browns
What the Browns really need here is a 33 year old center. JAY CUTLER IS AVAILABLE! The Browns shouldn't draft a quarterback until they replace 15 or so more starters. The Browns urgently need wide receivers.
Wow what a situation. Drafting first overall with the worst quarterback crop in twenty years (according to some). Well, this is Cleveland, isn't it?
And it won't matter to most fans if Sashi and company can't make a silk purse out of this sow's ear, because he traded down from Carson Wentz last season. Even if Wentz turns out to be just a guy. Even if Kessler is better.
But there is hope. Cody Kessler might indeed be better.
PFF's Sam Monson wrote a piece on Kessler heading into week 3 of his rookie season. At that point, Sam felt the kid was in for a bruising.
Per Sam, Kessler in 2014 outperformed Jared Goff, and was looking good. But then in 2015, he regressed, which was a huge red flag.
But changes in the roster, plus yet another offensive system, were factors which this writer overlooked, and Hue Jackson did not.
Kessler's preseason had been underwhelming. Sam writes that there was a lot to like about Kessler, but with his weaker arm (which I think is overstated), he would have had a much brighter outlook if Hue had been able to keep him on the bench until season two.
Stronger-armed quarterbacks have a better chance of playing early, because they can hit tighter windows and threaten the whole field. They can sometimes get away with mistakes, and defenses can't safely squeeze the short middle and force them to go to the perimeter and deep.
Sam brought up Chad Pennington and a couple other guys with weaker arms who succeeded in the NFL (left out Joe Montana), and liked Kessler's long-term prospects. He expected Cody to fail, however, in his rookie season.
What happened after Sam wrote this understandably gloomy article was surprising. Cody Kessler completed 65.6% of his passes with 6 TDs and 2 interceptions with 7.2 yards per attempt, and finished with a 92-plus QBR.
He was sacked on about every 9.7 passing attempts, which was pretty high.
Sam Monson did have a pretty good bead on Kessler, as he caught him holding the ball and throwing late at times. This happened later in his rookie NFL season, as I was screaming about in defense of his offensive line here.
As Sam says, in the NFL, if you wait to see your receiver get open, it's already too late, because the defenders recover too quickly. This is magnified when the quarterback can't fire a low-trajectory missile to get it there quickly.
However, Kessler can and did throw with anticipation throughout his college carreer and as an NFL rookie...just not all the time. And at least when he failed to pull the trigger on time in the NFL, he had the brains not to compound this by throwing an interception.
"Throwing receivers open" is a matter of trust. It takes a lot of guts. Kessler has to trust his receiver to make the right move at the right time.
Brady Quinn explained some more of this to me on NFL Radio:
People talk about precise patterns, but the reality is that with defenders deliberately jostling, jamming, and impeding receivers, a designed ten-yard cut is as often eight or eleven yards, and it's nobody's fault. The critical part is the "clock". The receiver has to make that cut at that time, because the ball WILL BE on the way.
A special quarterback, like Kessler, can adjust his target as he anticipates that cut being a little shallower or deeper, based on what he sees.
This is why Terrelle Pryor is so important. He can be deep or shallow and still grab the ball. He's also much bigger and stronger than any cornerback, so he'll be at the right depth more consistently.
But I digress: Sam mentions Aaron Rodgers, but could also have mentioned Tom Brady, as examples of guys who dramaticly increased their arm strength after they became pros, and Kessler can do that too.
Hue Jackson gave RG3 an extended look late last season after Cody Kessler was cleared from the concussion protocol, and most pundits totally misinterpreted what this signified.
Hue wanted to give Griffin more chances, and get more tape on him. Believe it or not, the rookie had already passed his tests, and was already secure.
Hue was protecting him. Kessler was never intended to play at all as a rookie. It's good that he did get that real game experience, and made all those mistakes. He knows he can do this now, and what he did wrong. He's a veteran now, and will return much better than he would have been, had he not been forced to play before he was ready.
The concussions were the bad news, but the good news is that he surprised everybody, including maybe even Hue Jackson and himself.
So here we are, with Jimmy G(?), Tyrod Taylor, and a historicly bad quarterback draft crop (and no other real options).
They don't have a franchise quarterback yet, but they DO have a quarterback they can win with. If it weren't for the concussions, I wouldn't even have mentioned Tyrod Taylor, because Kessler will be better than he is.
He just needs to GET RID OF THE DAMN BALL.
Wow what a situation. Drafting first overall with the worst quarterback crop in twenty years (according to some). Well, this is Cleveland, isn't it?
And it won't matter to most fans if Sashi and company can't make a silk purse out of this sow's ear, because he traded down from Carson Wentz last season. Even if Wentz turns out to be just a guy. Even if Kessler is better.
But there is hope. Cody Kessler might indeed be better.
PFF's Sam Monson wrote a piece on Kessler heading into week 3 of his rookie season. At that point, Sam felt the kid was in for a bruising.
Per Sam, Kessler in 2014 outperformed Jared Goff, and was looking good. But then in 2015, he regressed, which was a huge red flag.
But changes in the roster, plus yet another offensive system, were factors which this writer overlooked, and Hue Jackson did not.
Kessler's preseason had been underwhelming. Sam writes that there was a lot to like about Kessler, but with his weaker arm (which I think is overstated), he would have had a much brighter outlook if Hue had been able to keep him on the bench until season two.
Stronger-armed quarterbacks have a better chance of playing early, because they can hit tighter windows and threaten the whole field. They can sometimes get away with mistakes, and defenses can't safely squeeze the short middle and force them to go to the perimeter and deep.
Sam brought up Chad Pennington and a couple other guys with weaker arms who succeeded in the NFL (left out Joe Montana), and liked Kessler's long-term prospects. He expected Cody to fail, however, in his rookie season.
What happened after Sam wrote this understandably gloomy article was surprising. Cody Kessler completed 65.6% of his passes with 6 TDs and 2 interceptions with 7.2 yards per attempt, and finished with a 92-plus QBR.
He was sacked on about every 9.7 passing attempts, which was pretty high.
Sam Monson did have a pretty good bead on Kessler, as he caught him holding the ball and throwing late at times. This happened later in his rookie NFL season, as I was screaming about in defense of his offensive line here.
As Sam says, in the NFL, if you wait to see your receiver get open, it's already too late, because the defenders recover too quickly. This is magnified when the quarterback can't fire a low-trajectory missile to get it there quickly.
However, Kessler can and did throw with anticipation throughout his college carreer and as an NFL rookie...just not all the time. And at least when he failed to pull the trigger on time in the NFL, he had the brains not to compound this by throwing an interception.
"Throwing receivers open" is a matter of trust. It takes a lot of guts. Kessler has to trust his receiver to make the right move at the right time.
Brady Quinn explained some more of this to me on NFL Radio:
People talk about precise patterns, but the reality is that with defenders deliberately jostling, jamming, and impeding receivers, a designed ten-yard cut is as often eight or eleven yards, and it's nobody's fault. The critical part is the "clock". The receiver has to make that cut at that time, because the ball WILL BE on the way.
A special quarterback, like Kessler, can adjust his target as he anticipates that cut being a little shallower or deeper, based on what he sees.
This is why Terrelle Pryor is so important. He can be deep or shallow and still grab the ball. He's also much bigger and stronger than any cornerback, so he'll be at the right depth more consistently.
But I digress: Sam mentions Aaron Rodgers, but could also have mentioned Tom Brady, as examples of guys who dramaticly increased their arm strength after they became pros, and Kessler can do that too.
Hue Jackson gave RG3 an extended look late last season after Cody Kessler was cleared from the concussion protocol, and most pundits totally misinterpreted what this signified.
Hue wanted to give Griffin more chances, and get more tape on him. Believe it or not, the rookie had already passed his tests, and was already secure.
Hue was protecting him. Kessler was never intended to play at all as a rookie. It's good that he did get that real game experience, and made all those mistakes. He knows he can do this now, and what he did wrong. He's a veteran now, and will return much better than he would have been, had he not been forced to play before he was ready.
The concussions were the bad news, but the good news is that he surprised everybody, including maybe even Hue Jackson and himself.
So here we are, with Jimmy G(?), Tyrod Taylor, and a historicly bad quarterback draft crop (and no other real options).
They don't have a franchise quarterback yet, but they DO have a quarterback they can win with. If it weren't for the concussions, I wouldn't even have mentioned Tyrod Taylor, because Kessler will be better than he is.
He just needs to GET RID OF THE DAMN BALL.
Saturday, February 25, 2017
More Mahomes, Bad Browns Bloviating
I studied some more on Patrick Mahomes, and have decided that I just don't know. What I do know is that all the impressive stuff he does at the combine shouldn't move him up...but of course will.
One guy called him another Johnny Manziel, except bigger and (read this part) better. Better. B E T T E R.
The reading and progression stuff is scary on all these air raid guys. One writer said that the interviews during the combine will answer those questions, but he is wrong.
Almost every quarterback can show talent evaluators an understanding of pro concepts, and come up with correct answers on a white board. But for many, the classroom stuff flies out the window under pressure.
As I've said 20 or so times, it's not about intelligence, or even nerves. Some people just aren't wired right to process that quickly.
And Mahomes is like Manziel (no evidence of a drinking problem that's not what I mean stop it give me a break dammit). He throws from all sorts of arm angles and doesn't bother planting his feet. He plays "sandlot" football, and just has amazing body control and instincts.
CBS Sports is the most pragmatic scouting report I've read on Patrick, but I'm the grain of salt on some of that:
Hue Jackson and I don't give a damn if his mechanics look screwy as long as he is accurate. It is GOOD that he is "sloppy" and yet completes almost 66% of his passes. That part of his "negatives" is just plain silly. He's a natural, and some rules don't apply to him. Too bad they never fixed Bernie's side-arm motion, right?
What matters in this report is his tendancies not to trust his receivers (throw before they make their breaks--anticipate--) and to hold the ball too long.
As I've been trying to explain to the deaf ears, Hue's ideal offense is based on timing, and Mahomes hasn't proven he is even capable of working in that kind of system.
Look at RG3. A smart guy! But he's still having issues trying to run that scheme, even under Hue Jackson.
However, Hue Jackson is different, and adapts his offense to his players. His master-playbook is thicker than the Bible. Because this is Hue, and the "hot seat" crap is bullcrap, Mahomes might well be worth a calculated risk, even at twelve.
As one (other) smart writer pointed out, whoever drafts Mahomes needs to plant his butt on the bench for at least one full season, and drill him relentlessly in running whatever system that team runs.
Bullcrap aside, Cody Kessler is the likely starter (unless they land Garopollo), which means Hue's timing offense in 2017. Mahomes would be drilled on 3,5, and 7 step drops, and systematic checkdowns. He'd get lots of slaps upside the head for not throwing on time, or not being where his blockers think he is (and making them look bad).
Hue would have a year with him, and he'd get to practice the other pro offenses against the starting defense, including the drop-back mad bombers. After 2017, Hue would reassess:
Will he be able to do what Kessler does? Does he have the mental hardware? I know I can run more verticals and run options with him, but should I do that, or keep him in the pocket and force him to run the timing stuff? Will he master it? Can he? If not, maybe I should just go deep more, and let him stand there or scramble and do what he does best.
Hue Jackson is different, see? Hue himself was a super-short dual-threat college quarterback. He lacked the physical tools to make it in the NFL, but this was his foundation.
If only I had been a few inches taller. If only...if only.
This is why Hue makes the most of every quarterback he's worked with. He couldn't do it himself, but he can be Doctor Frankenstein, and create monsters.
Once again, Hue Jackson said that a franchise quarterback consists of a running game, good protection, decent receivers, and a decent defense. HE "reached" for Cody Kessler in the third round, and said "trust me".
Hue AGREED with Sashi and company on the trade-downs away from Carson Wentz, partly for this reason. All those extra picks are building the supporting cast, and Kessler will do fine in 2017.
Too many of you guys are kicking Shon Coleman to the curb, and utterly ignoring Corey Coleman's game-breaking talent. You've decided the Nassib experiment is over, Rango has peaked and is in decline, and most of the wide receivers are busts after their rookie freaking seasons! Honestly, it would be funny if you weren't allowed to vote.
I forgot Jamie Collins and the free agent centers, cornerback, and safety but I digress:
I think Mitch Trubisky is the best quarterback here, and wouldn't be surprised if the Browns drafted him first overall.
As wierd as it sounds, Trubisky, with his thirteen total starts, is the safest quarterback in this draft. But first overall is the only way, and there goes Garrett.
I have to mention one bad article I read, decrying the fixation with quarterbacks, and once again insisting that the team must be built first, and then, after your game manager gets you down below the eighth overall pick in the draft, go pick a franchise quarterback off the franchise quarterback tree.
The screams you hear are coming from this guy's torture chamber, and is his logic.
Beyond that, most of the supporting cast is in place! Coleman, Pryor, Crow, Duke, and Gary among others, and an offensive line which, despite losing both starting guards and Erving's failure at center, PFF ranked about average!
Five of those linemen are second and third year ascending players, and you're trying to replace them already come on, man!
Even if it were true that the offense needed a talent infusion, you don't pass up a potential franchise quarterback! You just don't play him until the rest of the unit is established!
This is the time to hit free agency hard. That's correct, but the priorities should be extending guys like Kirksey and locking up guys like Pryor long-term.
I know without reading it that this guy is talking about signing guys over 28, looking for instant gratification. These fools would overpay decending players hoping to win eight instead of six games, while waiving young developmental players, and we've been there/done that.
There are a lot of examples, but the most obvious one was letting Taylor Gabriel go and keeping Andrew Hawkins instead. Sashi Brown may have learned his lesson, but I guarantee you this writer did not.
Finally, everything that happened before 2016 is irrelevant. It does not exist. If you want to bash the front office, don't even mention stuff they had nothing to do with. Bash them for Scwartze and Gabriel, second guess the trade-down, but don't parrot this "for years and years" crap!
The Browns need a franchise quarterback, and can't pass one up.
Right now, I think it's either Trubisky or Garopollo. I really want Myles Garrett, so I hope it's Jimmy, or that Hue finds somebody else.
But damn, I really like our home boy...
...or not. Number Fire took a hard look at the top quarterbacks with historical comparisons. They rank Brad Kaaya first, Mahomes second. Kaaya outperformed the other guys vs common opponents.
Analyticly, none of these quarterbacks project well. I'm back on Mahomes because he's unique and will be available later, and even thinking about Kaaya in the second round or lower.
Good grief hey Jimmy! Get over here!
One guy called him another Johnny Manziel, except bigger and (read this part) better. Better. B E T T E R.
The reading and progression stuff is scary on all these air raid guys. One writer said that the interviews during the combine will answer those questions, but he is wrong.
Almost every quarterback can show talent evaluators an understanding of pro concepts, and come up with correct answers on a white board. But for many, the classroom stuff flies out the window under pressure.
As I've said 20 or so times, it's not about intelligence, or even nerves. Some people just aren't wired right to process that quickly.
And Mahomes is like Manziel (no evidence of a drinking problem that's not what I mean stop it give me a break dammit). He throws from all sorts of arm angles and doesn't bother planting his feet. He plays "sandlot" football, and just has amazing body control and instincts.
CBS Sports is the most pragmatic scouting report I've read on Patrick, but I'm the grain of salt on some of that:
Hue Jackson and I don't give a damn if his mechanics look screwy as long as he is accurate. It is GOOD that he is "sloppy" and yet completes almost 66% of his passes. That part of his "negatives" is just plain silly. He's a natural, and some rules don't apply to him. Too bad they never fixed Bernie's side-arm motion, right?
What matters in this report is his tendancies not to trust his receivers (throw before they make their breaks--anticipate--) and to hold the ball too long.
As I've been trying to explain to the deaf ears, Hue's ideal offense is based on timing, and Mahomes hasn't proven he is even capable of working in that kind of system.
Look at RG3. A smart guy! But he's still having issues trying to run that scheme, even under Hue Jackson.
However, Hue Jackson is different, and adapts his offense to his players. His master-playbook is thicker than the Bible. Because this is Hue, and the "hot seat" crap is bullcrap, Mahomes might well be worth a calculated risk, even at twelve.
As one (other) smart writer pointed out, whoever drafts Mahomes needs to plant his butt on the bench for at least one full season, and drill him relentlessly in running whatever system that team runs.
Bullcrap aside, Cody Kessler is the likely starter (unless they land Garopollo), which means Hue's timing offense in 2017. Mahomes would be drilled on 3,5, and 7 step drops, and systematic checkdowns. He'd get lots of slaps upside the head for not throwing on time, or not being where his blockers think he is (and making them look bad).
Hue would have a year with him, and he'd get to practice the other pro offenses against the starting defense, including the drop-back mad bombers. After 2017, Hue would reassess:
Will he be able to do what Kessler does? Does he have the mental hardware? I know I can run more verticals and run options with him, but should I do that, or keep him in the pocket and force him to run the timing stuff? Will he master it? Can he? If not, maybe I should just go deep more, and let him stand there or scramble and do what he does best.
Hue Jackson is different, see? Hue himself was a super-short dual-threat college quarterback. He lacked the physical tools to make it in the NFL, but this was his foundation.
If only I had been a few inches taller. If only...if only.
This is why Hue makes the most of every quarterback he's worked with. He couldn't do it himself, but he can be Doctor Frankenstein, and create monsters.
Once again, Hue Jackson said that a franchise quarterback consists of a running game, good protection, decent receivers, and a decent defense. HE "reached" for Cody Kessler in the third round, and said "trust me".
Hue AGREED with Sashi and company on the trade-downs away from Carson Wentz, partly for this reason. All those extra picks are building the supporting cast, and Kessler will do fine in 2017.
Too many of you guys are kicking Shon Coleman to the curb, and utterly ignoring Corey Coleman's game-breaking talent. You've decided the Nassib experiment is over, Rango has peaked and is in decline, and most of the wide receivers are busts after their rookie freaking seasons! Honestly, it would be funny if you weren't allowed to vote.
I forgot Jamie Collins and the free agent centers, cornerback, and safety but I digress:
I think Mitch Trubisky is the best quarterback here, and wouldn't be surprised if the Browns drafted him first overall.
As wierd as it sounds, Trubisky, with his thirteen total starts, is the safest quarterback in this draft. But first overall is the only way, and there goes Garrett.
I have to mention one bad article I read, decrying the fixation with quarterbacks, and once again insisting that the team must be built first, and then, after your game manager gets you down below the eighth overall pick in the draft, go pick a franchise quarterback off the franchise quarterback tree.
The screams you hear are coming from this guy's torture chamber, and is his logic.
Beyond that, most of the supporting cast is in place! Coleman, Pryor, Crow, Duke, and Gary among others, and an offensive line which, despite losing both starting guards and Erving's failure at center, PFF ranked about average!
Five of those linemen are second and third year ascending players, and you're trying to replace them already come on, man!
Even if it were true that the offense needed a talent infusion, you don't pass up a potential franchise quarterback! You just don't play him until the rest of the unit is established!
This is the time to hit free agency hard. That's correct, but the priorities should be extending guys like Kirksey and locking up guys like Pryor long-term.
I know without reading it that this guy is talking about signing guys over 28, looking for instant gratification. These fools would overpay decending players hoping to win eight instead of six games, while waiving young developmental players, and we've been there/done that.
There are a lot of examples, but the most obvious one was letting Taylor Gabriel go and keeping Andrew Hawkins instead. Sashi Brown may have learned his lesson, but I guarantee you this writer did not.
Finally, everything that happened before 2016 is irrelevant. It does not exist. If you want to bash the front office, don't even mention stuff they had nothing to do with. Bash them for Scwartze and Gabriel, second guess the trade-down, but don't parrot this "for years and years" crap!
The Browns need a franchise quarterback, and can't pass one up.
Right now, I think it's either Trubisky or Garopollo. I really want Myles Garrett, so I hope it's Jimmy, or that Hue finds somebody else.
But damn, I really like our home boy...
...or not. Number Fire took a hard look at the top quarterbacks with historical comparisons. They rank Brad Kaaya first, Mahomes second. Kaaya outperformed the other guys vs common opponents.
Analyticly, none of these quarterbacks project well. I'm back on Mahomes because he's unique and will be available later, and even thinking about Kaaya in the second round or lower.
Good grief hey Jimmy! Get over here!
Friday, February 24, 2017
Cleveland Browns Draft Stuff
Mitch Trubisky and Deshaun Watson are more than numbers, but the numbers still matter. Mitch has the edge on most counts.
Mitch had a 5:1 TD/Int ratio, whereas Deshaun's was about 2.4:1. I initially thought this was because Watson was more aggressive and went deep more often, but then found out that Trubisky's yards per attempt were 8.4, vs Watson's 7.9.
Watson did throw 41 touchdowns to Trubisky's 30, but I'm not sure how significant that is.
Trubisky completed 68% of his passes to Watson's 67%, with a QBR of 157.9 to Watson's 151.15.
I'm not sure what some of this means, because I don't know enough about their respective conferences, or the defenses they faced.
I do know that Clemson had great receivers, and Trubisky did not, and that Trubisky had to come from behind more often.
That's not all there is to it, either. Trubisky appears better built and more solid, but isn't nearly the athlete Watson is. Watson also played in two National Championships, and willed his team to a last-second win in the last one.
You can't ignore these things!
I have to mention Patrick Mahomes here: 41 tds, 10 interceptions, 8.5 yards per attempt, 65.6%, 157+ QBR. You can't ignore that, either. In terms of pure, raw statistics, Trubisky is first, Mahomas second, and Watson third (in a close group, except for Watson's yards per attempt and TD/Int ratio.)
Now, Hue Jackson, Berry, and the scouts are the guys who will dig under those numbers into intangibles like football intelligence, leadership, and mechanics. Is this issue mental or physical? Is it just a bad habit? Can we fix it? Will he be the same in this system?
But DePodesta, mainly, will dig in under the numbers. PPF, for example, took Watson's 17 interceptions and broke them down: Six were on deflections, and one was miscommunication. Eleven were actually his fault.
Trubisky and Mahomes will no doubt get the same treatment, but I haven't seen those numbers yet.
Here's where it gets deeper: With the help of the scouts and Hue, the geeks will break the interceptions down further, looking for patterns.
It could turn out that a guy only threw picks that were his fault running to his left, or throwing across his body while scrambling right. Or only on deeper ones into the end zone. Or off his back foot while falling backwards.
Then Hue will know: This guy gets too greedy near the end zone. That guy tries to do stuff he can't do. The other guy looks at his own guys instead of the sneaky safety hiding in the weeds.
Then he talks to the guy, and decides whether or not he can fix it, and how hard that will be.
By the time this process runs it's course, it's anybody's guess how Hue Jackson will rank these guys. As likely as not, he won't agree with Mayock, Kiper, or the other guys.
I left out DeShone Kizer here on purpose. I can't agree that Hue might fall in love with him, because his specific issues are on quick, short passes and decision-making.
Some analysts read Hue Jackson wrong, or don't get his priorities straight. He pretty much ran the offense he wants to run with Andy Dalton in Cincinnati, and then picked Cody Kessler when he got here.
Three of the quarterbacks who fit his ideal, semi-west coast passing game are those I listed. Kizer is more of a mad bomber.
Hue still hasn't got back to me yet, but I advised him to imagine what Mahomas or Trubisky would have done with that Clemson offense. In my amatuer opinion, they would have done as well or better.
Bill Livinston says don't fool around this time, and just draft the best quarterback first overall. I can't agree with the simplistic approach, but Bill makes some good points to back up some of what I've said.
He points to the Texans. They did lose AJ Watt, but Clowney finally went nuts, and they sacked everybody all the time. And came up short.
The Raiders were kicking ass until Carr went down, and then? And they had a great passrusher too.
Once again, every team that made the Conference Championships had elite quarterbacks, but not necessarily elite passrushers. See how that works?
Here is a pretty sentient mock draft from Factory of Sadness (Ryan Rosco). Garrett first, naturally, but then offensive tackle Ramczyk, for the same reasons I cited several weeks ago.
But Ryan dismisses Cam Erving as a right tackle altogether, and calls Corey Coleman a long-term project. That's just plain dumb. Still, I like the pick because Joe Thomas can't play forever.
Atop the second, Ryan takes Mahomes, but correctly says that he could shoot up the boards during the combine, and the Browns might have to make a move to nab him.
Trading up into the first round isn't bad, because first rounders are signed for a year longer, and the trade compensation isn't that painful. The top pick in the second round has significant extra value, too, as it is highly tradeable, like a poor man's first overall pick.
At least Ryan doesn't just ignore quarterback.
Then it's cornerback, safety, and center check. Ryan's safety is Utah's Marcus Williams in the third, and his center is Tyler Orlosky of WV (and how could he suck with a name like that?).
Williams is a playmaker in a very strong safety class. Orlosky is just a solid, blue collar guy who would compete at a percieved soft spot on the offensive line.
I'll skip the rest (5'10" cornerback next, but Ryan says he plays bigger).
The big thing is that Ryan comprehends that quarterback is important, and although he totally blew it on the right tackle situation, he can also count, and imagine a time when Joe Thomas is no longer here.
Also, although he does grab a big bruising running back late, he isn't hallucinating about an urgently desperate need there, or at linebacker, or at wide receiver, so Ryan gets an A-minus.
And yeah...I'm liking Mahomes too (shhh!)
Mitch had a 5:1 TD/Int ratio, whereas Deshaun's was about 2.4:1. I initially thought this was because Watson was more aggressive and went deep more often, but then found out that Trubisky's yards per attempt were 8.4, vs Watson's 7.9.
Watson did throw 41 touchdowns to Trubisky's 30, but I'm not sure how significant that is.
Trubisky completed 68% of his passes to Watson's 67%, with a QBR of 157.9 to Watson's 151.15.
I'm not sure what some of this means, because I don't know enough about their respective conferences, or the defenses they faced.
I do know that Clemson had great receivers, and Trubisky did not, and that Trubisky had to come from behind more often.
That's not all there is to it, either. Trubisky appears better built and more solid, but isn't nearly the athlete Watson is. Watson also played in two National Championships, and willed his team to a last-second win in the last one.
You can't ignore these things!
I have to mention Patrick Mahomes here: 41 tds, 10 interceptions, 8.5 yards per attempt, 65.6%, 157+ QBR. You can't ignore that, either. In terms of pure, raw statistics, Trubisky is first, Mahomas second, and Watson third (in a close group, except for Watson's yards per attempt and TD/Int ratio.)
Now, Hue Jackson, Berry, and the scouts are the guys who will dig under those numbers into intangibles like football intelligence, leadership, and mechanics. Is this issue mental or physical? Is it just a bad habit? Can we fix it? Will he be the same in this system?
But DePodesta, mainly, will dig in under the numbers. PPF, for example, took Watson's 17 interceptions and broke them down: Six were on deflections, and one was miscommunication. Eleven were actually his fault.
Trubisky and Mahomes will no doubt get the same treatment, but I haven't seen those numbers yet.
Here's where it gets deeper: With the help of the scouts and Hue, the geeks will break the interceptions down further, looking for patterns.
It could turn out that a guy only threw picks that were his fault running to his left, or throwing across his body while scrambling right. Or only on deeper ones into the end zone. Or off his back foot while falling backwards.
Then Hue will know: This guy gets too greedy near the end zone. That guy tries to do stuff he can't do. The other guy looks at his own guys instead of the sneaky safety hiding in the weeds.
Then he talks to the guy, and decides whether or not he can fix it, and how hard that will be.
By the time this process runs it's course, it's anybody's guess how Hue Jackson will rank these guys. As likely as not, he won't agree with Mayock, Kiper, or the other guys.
I left out DeShone Kizer here on purpose. I can't agree that Hue might fall in love with him, because his specific issues are on quick, short passes and decision-making.
Some analysts read Hue Jackson wrong, or don't get his priorities straight. He pretty much ran the offense he wants to run with Andy Dalton in Cincinnati, and then picked Cody Kessler when he got here.
Three of the quarterbacks who fit his ideal, semi-west coast passing game are those I listed. Kizer is more of a mad bomber.
Hue still hasn't got back to me yet, but I advised him to imagine what Mahomas or Trubisky would have done with that Clemson offense. In my amatuer opinion, they would have done as well or better.
Bill Livinston says don't fool around this time, and just draft the best quarterback first overall. I can't agree with the simplistic approach, but Bill makes some good points to back up some of what I've said.
He points to the Texans. They did lose AJ Watt, but Clowney finally went nuts, and they sacked everybody all the time. And came up short.
The Raiders were kicking ass until Carr went down, and then? And they had a great passrusher too.
Once again, every team that made the Conference Championships had elite quarterbacks, but not necessarily elite passrushers. See how that works?
Here is a pretty sentient mock draft from Factory of Sadness (Ryan Rosco). Garrett first, naturally, but then offensive tackle Ramczyk, for the same reasons I cited several weeks ago.
But Ryan dismisses Cam Erving as a right tackle altogether, and calls Corey Coleman a long-term project. That's just plain dumb. Still, I like the pick because Joe Thomas can't play forever.
Atop the second, Ryan takes Mahomes, but correctly says that he could shoot up the boards during the combine, and the Browns might have to make a move to nab him.
Trading up into the first round isn't bad, because first rounders are signed for a year longer, and the trade compensation isn't that painful. The top pick in the second round has significant extra value, too, as it is highly tradeable, like a poor man's first overall pick.
At least Ryan doesn't just ignore quarterback.
Then it's cornerback, safety, and center check. Ryan's safety is Utah's Marcus Williams in the third, and his center is Tyler Orlosky of WV (and how could he suck with a name like that?).
Williams is a playmaker in a very strong safety class. Orlosky is just a solid, blue collar guy who would compete at a percieved soft spot on the offensive line.
I'll skip the rest (5'10" cornerback next, but Ryan says he plays bigger).
The big thing is that Ryan comprehends that quarterback is important, and although he totally blew it on the right tackle situation, he can also count, and imagine a time when Joe Thomas is no longer here.
Also, although he does grab a big bruising running back late, he isn't hallucinating about an urgently desperate need there, or at linebacker, or at wide receiver, so Ryan gets an A-minus.
And yeah...I'm liking Mahomes too (shhh!)
Tuesday, February 21, 2017
Cleveland Browns: We're All Gonna Die!!!
On offense, the Browns desperately need a quarterback, running backs, offensive linemen, wide receivers, and tight ends.
The guy who normally writes this blog blabbers about ratings, accuracy, and stuff like that, but the bottom line is all that matters, so Cody Kessler lost all his games, so he was a huge draft whiff.
The Browns urgently need to find a starting quarterback. I would consider signing Tyrod Taylor or Tony Romo or the Bengals backup guy, who I bet they could get for only like a second round draft pick.
At running back, there is a desperate oh man I just can't stay dumb enough for long enough to keep writing this garbage. The world is eyeball deep in LaCanfora-spewing Joe Twelvpacks. A lot of fans might not even know I'm being sarcastic.
The article I linked to on Kessler is written by a guy who thinks that Cody Kessler IS the franchise quarterback.
I know I know, I kind of doubt it too, but he makes a pretty good case. I've been defending this guy forever. I'm pretty sure he starts game one and plays well. Kessler will win when he has help. He's a good quarterback, do you hear me?
The concussions, however, are alarming.
But now these knuckleheads have stuck to the Gramps Romo stuff, added Tyrod Taylor, and are even talking about trading for the Bengals backup what the hell?
Dane Brugler, who is a Mentor native, is high on Jimmy Garopollo and Deshone Kizer both, so I guess I've changed my mind again. Brugler should know both the Browns and Kizer better than other analysts, and has always been rated high in my book.
Brugler isn't talking about #12 for Jimmy, but the top second rounder, and maybe a conditional pick next year, which would be another second if certain performance targets were met. This might be enough to win the bidding war.
Dane is sadly still stuck on this immediate impact stuff, but goes on to say that Garopollo does have franchise traits, and likens him (roughly) to Tony Romo.
Finally, somebody has enlightened me about Kizer! Dane doesn't believe Kizer actually regressed last season. He lost his top ten left tackle and his top six wide receiver. I'm not clear on details here, but Dane also felt that his Head Coach preferred another quarterback, and may not have been in his corner. I haven't looked into this yet myself.
He's not the only guy who has said that Kizer has the most arm talent, and the highest upside of any quarterback in this draft. He's big and should take a lickin and keep on tickin.
Per Dane, Deshone has the deep ball down pat, but needs to work on his short accuracy more. This isn't that bad, since most of these are slants and crosses.
These passes are a LOT different than verticals. If you can be accurate deep, you can be accurate short. It's a matter of timing and leading the receiver.
Some guys, like Derek Anderson, never get very good at short passes, but DA was 6'6", not athletic, and had footwork issues; it's hard for him to plant and throw quickly.
Kizer has more starts than Trubisky, and more tape to study. Dane thinks the Browns could "fall in love" with him.
He also says that if the Browns do believe in any of these draftable quarterbacks, and the Jimmy G thing can't happen, they have to draft him first overall. The impact of a quarterback is significantly greater than that of any passrusher.
With that disclaimer, Dane's Plan A for the Browns is Garrett, Malik Hooker (FS Ohio State), and Garopollo. Sounds good to me. (Brugler rates Garrett significantly higher than everybody else).
Plan B is unlear. I can't help thinking that Hue Jackson might like more than one of these quarterbacks, and that a trade-down could work if it still got them one of Hue's favorites, OR he might like Mahones, Kelly, Webb, or somebody none of us never heard of again. Who knows?
Oh no! Malik Hooker only started for one year! He'll screw up as an NFL rookie! We can't draft him because he won't make the Pro Bowl until his second or third season!
We've got to draft a less-talented guy who is more NFL ready so we can go 7-9 instead of 6-10 in 2017!
We can't draft Kizer either! He shouldn't start for one or possibly even two years! We need to draft a different position instead, and pick a nice ripe quarterback off the quarterback tree next season instead, or draft a Tom Brady in the sixth or a Russell Wilson in the third!
Speaking of immediate impacts, Jeff Schudel has divined Hair-Trigger Haslam ultimatums to Hue and Sashi from Jimmy's letter to season ticket holders. He thinks that by promising his customers an improved product in 2017 and beyond, Haslam is turning up the heat on his management team, and that this means they have to sign a veteran quarterback.
This is wrong for just too many reasons:
1: Jeff clearly has zero faith in Rodney Kesslerfied. I can assure you, Hue, Sashi, and Paul have a higher opinion of him than Jeff does. So do most other football people and analysts.
2: If the Browns use a high draft pick on a rookie quarterback, they still have four top 65 draft picks, three of which should upgrade three positions immediately. There are only 22 starters. Don't act like this just means the Browns have 19 more players to replace, okay?
The Browns will automaticly win more games as the many, many first and second year players develop, mature, and master their respective systems. It doesn't require that Cody Kessler or even RG3 need to get kicked to the curb!
I can't even inflict the link on you, but somebody else wrote another atrocious article on how the Browns should spend every penny of their cap space on everybody they can get.
I can't argue about cornerbacks and under-tackles, but stop it:
You don't need Myles Garrett AND another edge rusher to bench both Ogbah AND Nassib (and Johnson/Holmes/Orchard)!
There are THREE good players competing for right tackle, and even Pazstor was a little above average by the end of the season, and he is a better guard than tackle! Why are you pretending the whole freaking offensive line needs to be rebuilt?
And here is another goober who thinks Tyrod Taylor or even Ryan Mallett is better than Cody Kessler!
I've honestly blacked out much of this article (it was that traumatic) but I'm sure he had Sashi getting wide receivers, running backs, tight ends, linebackers, punters, kickers, and waterboys too.
Don't let this clown borrow your credit card, okay? You'll need a second mortgage by sundown good grief stopitstopitstopit #@!&%×+?!@!!!
The guy who normally writes this blog blabbers about ratings, accuracy, and stuff like that, but the bottom line is all that matters, so Cody Kessler lost all his games, so he was a huge draft whiff.
The Browns urgently need to find a starting quarterback. I would consider signing Tyrod Taylor or Tony Romo or the Bengals backup guy, who I bet they could get for only like a second round draft pick.
At running back, there is a desperate oh man I just can't stay dumb enough for long enough to keep writing this garbage. The world is eyeball deep in LaCanfora-spewing Joe Twelvpacks. A lot of fans might not even know I'm being sarcastic.
The article I linked to on Kessler is written by a guy who thinks that Cody Kessler IS the franchise quarterback.
I know I know, I kind of doubt it too, but he makes a pretty good case. I've been defending this guy forever. I'm pretty sure he starts game one and plays well. Kessler will win when he has help. He's a good quarterback, do you hear me?
The concussions, however, are alarming.
But now these knuckleheads have stuck to the Gramps Romo stuff, added Tyrod Taylor, and are even talking about trading for the Bengals backup what the hell?
Dane Brugler, who is a Mentor native, is high on Jimmy Garopollo and Deshone Kizer both, so I guess I've changed my mind again. Brugler should know both the Browns and Kizer better than other analysts, and has always been rated high in my book.
Brugler isn't talking about #12 for Jimmy, but the top second rounder, and maybe a conditional pick next year, which would be another second if certain performance targets were met. This might be enough to win the bidding war.
Dane is sadly still stuck on this immediate impact stuff, but goes on to say that Garopollo does have franchise traits, and likens him (roughly) to Tony Romo.
Finally, somebody has enlightened me about Kizer! Dane doesn't believe Kizer actually regressed last season. He lost his top ten left tackle and his top six wide receiver. I'm not clear on details here, but Dane also felt that his Head Coach preferred another quarterback, and may not have been in his corner. I haven't looked into this yet myself.
He's not the only guy who has said that Kizer has the most arm talent, and the highest upside of any quarterback in this draft. He's big and should take a lickin and keep on tickin.
Per Dane, Deshone has the deep ball down pat, but needs to work on his short accuracy more. This isn't that bad, since most of these are slants and crosses.
These passes are a LOT different than verticals. If you can be accurate deep, you can be accurate short. It's a matter of timing and leading the receiver.
Some guys, like Derek Anderson, never get very good at short passes, but DA was 6'6", not athletic, and had footwork issues; it's hard for him to plant and throw quickly.
Kizer has more starts than Trubisky, and more tape to study. Dane thinks the Browns could "fall in love" with him.
He also says that if the Browns do believe in any of these draftable quarterbacks, and the Jimmy G thing can't happen, they have to draft him first overall. The impact of a quarterback is significantly greater than that of any passrusher.
With that disclaimer, Dane's Plan A for the Browns is Garrett, Malik Hooker (FS Ohio State), and Garopollo. Sounds good to me. (Brugler rates Garrett significantly higher than everybody else).
Plan B is unlear. I can't help thinking that Hue Jackson might like more than one of these quarterbacks, and that a trade-down could work if it still got them one of Hue's favorites, OR he might like Mahones, Kelly, Webb, or somebody none of us never heard of again. Who knows?
Oh no! Malik Hooker only started for one year! He'll screw up as an NFL rookie! We can't draft him because he won't make the Pro Bowl until his second or third season!
We've got to draft a less-talented guy who is more NFL ready so we can go 7-9 instead of 6-10 in 2017!
We can't draft Kizer either! He shouldn't start for one or possibly even two years! We need to draft a different position instead, and pick a nice ripe quarterback off the quarterback tree next season instead, or draft a Tom Brady in the sixth or a Russell Wilson in the third!
Speaking of immediate impacts, Jeff Schudel has divined Hair-Trigger Haslam ultimatums to Hue and Sashi from Jimmy's letter to season ticket holders. He thinks that by promising his customers an improved product in 2017 and beyond, Haslam is turning up the heat on his management team, and that this means they have to sign a veteran quarterback.
This is wrong for just too many reasons:
1: Jeff clearly has zero faith in Rodney Kesslerfied. I can assure you, Hue, Sashi, and Paul have a higher opinion of him than Jeff does. So do most other football people and analysts.
2: If the Browns use a high draft pick on a rookie quarterback, they still have four top 65 draft picks, three of which should upgrade three positions immediately. There are only 22 starters. Don't act like this just means the Browns have 19 more players to replace, okay?
The Browns will automaticly win more games as the many, many first and second year players develop, mature, and master their respective systems. It doesn't require that Cody Kessler or even RG3 need to get kicked to the curb!
I can't even inflict the link on you, but somebody else wrote another atrocious article on how the Browns should spend every penny of their cap space on everybody they can get.
I can't argue about cornerbacks and under-tackles, but stop it:
You don't need Myles Garrett AND another edge rusher to bench both Ogbah AND Nassib (and Johnson/Holmes/Orchard)!
There are THREE good players competing for right tackle, and even Pazstor was a little above average by the end of the season, and he is a better guard than tackle! Why are you pretending the whole freaking offensive line needs to be rebuilt?
And here is another goober who thinks Tyrod Taylor or even Ryan Mallett is better than Cody Kessler!
I've honestly blacked out much of this article (it was that traumatic) but I'm sure he had Sashi getting wide receivers, running backs, tight ends, linebackers, punters, kickers, and waterboys too.
Don't let this clown borrow your credit card, okay? You'll need a second mortgage by sundown good grief stopitstopitstopit #@!&%×+?!@!!!
Saturday, February 18, 2017
Garrett, Trubisky, Bad Analysis, and the Cleveland Browns
This article by Jonathan Goehring made me re-examine this whole Myles Garrett video business.
As Jon points put, Garrett did mention Cleveland specificly. It's fine for the kid to want to play for his home town team, but when he mentions the Browns, he is saying that he doesn't want to play here.
Myles is like way too many politicians. They say one thing today. Then, after they see poll numbers going against them, they do a 180: I was kidding. Out of context. Are you going to hold something I said four whole months ago against me?
Maybe, if the Browns draft him, and during his contract they finally become really good, he'll want to stay. Or maybe Jonathan is right, and Garrett might be determined to become a Cowboy no matter what.
The Browns can hold onto him for six years, using the first round tender I mentioned in my last post. Or maybe after three years he holds out and demands a new contract or a trade.
Like most politicians, Myles listened to his focus group, and said all the right things about wanting to play anywhere and being a team guy, but I can't trust that. First, you say whatever they want to hear to get their votes. Then, you do whatever you need to do to get money and stay in power, regardless of what you said.
Jonathan Allen (or Mitch Trubisky) are far less likely to become a pain in the butt down the road. The writer makes a lot of sense here, and I'd be nervous about drafting Garrett.
In other news, Mary K Cabbot is sticking to her Trubisky first overall theory, which I concur with---I mean if Hue is willing to place his head on that chopping block. (MKC, YOU, or I are not qualified to make this pick).
She is right about there being no such thing as a franchise quarterback tree, and the criticality of getting this thing right, and about Trubisky being the consensus top option here.
Listen: Cody Kessler in the third round was called a "reach". Based on his early returns, he absolutely was NOT. Hue gained some credibility with this gutsy, contrarian pick.
Dak Prescott is not relevant here. Everybody else missed him too, and Dallas is loaded. Stick to the issue: Kessler was a "hit".
That's why Mary K et al are probably wrong about a veteran quarterback being a priority in the second year of this rebuild. Some rookie(s) will be drafted, and will not start. Cody Kessler should start. RG3 was adequate and doesn't cost much. Now they need to pay Tyrod or some other journeyman 14-plus mil to keep Kessler on the bench why?
"Browns Freak", a demented Chicken Little Browns caller on NFL Radio, has declared that Kessler lacks the arm to hit the out routes and is a career backup. This guy makes us all look like idiots. Talk about shit-colored glasses.
No, Jackson did what he could to play to Kessler's strengths, and that was crosses and slants, but when he needed a hard one to the outside, he generally got it there on time. Check out late in his comeback games, when he needed to kill the clock (and the defenses knew it).
Browns Freakin Idjut dammit...
But I regress: Consensus declares Trubisky the best, and almost universally mock drafts him in the top four. So what is this? Are Chicago and San Francisco run by idiots? Sorry to be redundant again ("again" get it?...nevermind), but why would it be dumb to draft our home-boy first overall, but smart to draft him second overall?
You think the ANALYTICS guys are too fixated on numbers?
Yeah I get it: Garrett is all that (Mary Kay doesn't think so, but I do), and could be that unstoppable force and all that. Mitch Trubisky has thirteen starts, just like Marc Sanchez, and could flop! What if Garrett tears up the NFL, and Trubisky sputters and dies? You don't even want to think about it, do you?
Here's another ray of hope: Takeo Spikes is now a co-host on NFL Radio, and a color man for college games. (Remember former Bengals and Bills stud inside and middle linebacker?).
Anyway, Spikes has covered both Watson and Trubisky. His co-host asked him to pick a favorite between them.
Takeo ultimately gave Deshaun Watson the nod, based on his performances in two National Championship games, and the fact that he carried his team to the National championship in his last one.
But it was close, and he said great things about our homie:
He never got rattled. He'd get sacked on second down, and come right back for a 6-14 yard clutch completion for a first down, over and over again. He was pressure-proof; rock-steady. He saw the whole field. He made the right throws, at the right time.
Spikes feels that both these quarterbacks can be (not will but CAN) franchise quarterbacks in time (not right now DO YOU UNDERSTAND?).
Now, I've been saving this, because it's not every day I get to blow Mike Mayock and Gil Brandt out of the water: Gil and Mike want to know why, if Trubisky is that good, he couldn't take over for his predecessor sooner.
That's a legitimate question, but thanks to Terry Pluto, I've got this:
Why didn't you ask Carson Wentz the same question?
Wentz didn't start until his junior season either. Mike? Gil? You've been served!
The difference here is that Mitch is coming out early, after only one year as a starter. Stay with me here, this is not over:
If Wentz had entered the draft after his own junior season (no Senior Bowl btw), where would he have been drafted?
The answer is: "Carson who?"
Still with me? Meanwhile, our homie, after his junior season, is the consensus-best quarterback in an admittedly weak draft class.
So, riddle me this, Batman:
1: Where would Trubisky rank, if he was coming out in the last draft class? My guess is that he might be a shade behind Paxton Lynch, the third quarterback drafted (in the first round). And actually, he might have been ahead of Lynch.
2: If Trubisky had stayed in school, and waited for the 2018 draft, what would have happened? Well, we have just seen Kizer regress, and that is certainly possible...which might well leave him as the third or fourth quarterback drafted anyway.
But it's far more likely that he would have been better than he was in 2016, with a decent shot at being the consensus-best pro prospect...again, even in an stronger draft class.
3: Is starting 12-13 games in a shotgun spread college offense better than collecting splinters and running scout teams in the NFL (and playing eight preseason games etc)? (Answer: NO).
Try to stay with me here! You're learning how to think with your brains! This is important!
Now, Gil Brandt asked another good question: Mitch Trubisky was Mister Ohio stud quarterback, so why does he go to North Carolina instead of Michigan or Ohio State?
Well, this is irrelevant, unless it indicates that he takes the easy way out to avoid stiff competition, or something. If the Big Ten local colleges didn't think that much of him, it doesn't matter, since they would obviously have been wrong.
Mike says he'd be scared to death. Gil says "Buyer Beware". But niether has (as yet) found any real issues with how he plays on the field.
Now here, I do really need to repeat myself, since nobody else gets this yet:
The Cleveland Browns are not like other teams (except maybe the Niners). It is NOT important that any quarterback they draft plays at all in his rookie season. All these real experts, including Mike and Gil, are downgrading Trubisky not on talent, but on lack of starting experience.
Mary Kay has one top talent evaluator who thinks that Trubisky has more upside than Carson Wentz, and I'm pretty sure I know why:
He's more accurate, anticipates better, and has icewater in his veins. He was not surrounded by talent, having inherited a small-pond powerhouse. Instead, he played in a bigger pond, and carried more on his shoulders.
Trubisky is a little shorter and smaller...
Speaking of which, I have some names for Andre Knott: Brian Sipe, Doug Flutie, Fank Ryan, Bill Nelson, Jeff Blake, Jim McMahon, and guys I can't remember now: You don't have to be big or have a cannon to succeed in bad conditions, or in a brutal division (this goes for you too, Tony!)
Also, for that matter, Deshaun Watson is not like RG3. Watson has a normal metabolism and will get bigger. Griffin has a high metabolism, and it's hard for him to pump up. Deshaun is also more a football player than a track star, and is much more durable as-is but I digress yet again:
For the moment, I agree with Mary Kay: There is a reasonable chance that HUE JACKSON will lift his middle digit to the rest of the planet and draft Mitch Trubisky first overall, and I am already filling bags with sand and building claymores as I prepare to defend him (HIM not Sashi Brown) for not drafting Garrett instead, see?
I can't get off Mary Kay though: Hue Jackson never asked for a General Manager in particular or more "football guys" in general. There never was any significant conflict, and Jimmy Haslam has not recently reluctantly given Hue Jackson more influence over personnel decisions.
She is projecting all this stuff. There really is nothing to see here, and you really should move along.
Technically, Sashi Brown controls personnel. Hue Jackson signed off on that, because he's been there/done that and is glad to dump that on somebody else so he can just coach. He did so after having met Sashi and Paul and the Senior scouts (read: "football people").
Sashi Brown is not a powermad dictator, do you understand? He's where he is now more because of his intersocial skills and ability to negotiate and compromise than for his brains. He's not Benito Mussolini, and he knows what he doesn't know.
Hue isn't just pretending to be happy with the arrangement, and isn't lying about it. I hate to sound massogistic here, but I think Mary Kay watches too many Soaps. She's also overrating testosterone.
This is the real deal: Jackson and his assistants, along with Berry and the scouts, actually talk to eachother, and disagree, and argue, about players. Sometimes Sashi Brown is part of it, but more often not.
Where Sashi gets more involved is where he tells these guys what DePodesta said, and explains the business side of things to the many, many "football" people.
If we keep this guy, we can't keep that guy. If we sign this guy, we'll need to cut one of these three, or two of these five. I know this guy is good, but this other younger guy is cheaper, and we think he'll be better next season, so what do you think?
That's what's going on here. No secret power struggles. No bad movies, or Soap Operas. What you see is what you get. Honest!
We're over-cynicized in general, I guess, so we expect lies and duplicity in everything we hear. It's depressing, and irrational.
Anyhow, for the moment, at least, I HOPE the Browns don't screw around, and just draft our homie Mitch Trubisky first overall.
This is more heart than brains. I'm not qualified to make this decision, and am not risking my career on it.
But re-read this from the start if neccessary: I'm no expert on talent, but I've got the critical thinking and logic parts nailed. I give Mitch Trubisky a 50/50 shot at first overall.
If they draft Trubisky and elude the lynch mob for one season, dreams might come true.
...or not I dunno.
As Jon points put, Garrett did mention Cleveland specificly. It's fine for the kid to want to play for his home town team, but when he mentions the Browns, he is saying that he doesn't want to play here.
Myles is like way too many politicians. They say one thing today. Then, after they see poll numbers going against them, they do a 180: I was kidding. Out of context. Are you going to hold something I said four whole months ago against me?
Maybe, if the Browns draft him, and during his contract they finally become really good, he'll want to stay. Or maybe Jonathan is right, and Garrett might be determined to become a Cowboy no matter what.
The Browns can hold onto him for six years, using the first round tender I mentioned in my last post. Or maybe after three years he holds out and demands a new contract or a trade.
Like most politicians, Myles listened to his focus group, and said all the right things about wanting to play anywhere and being a team guy, but I can't trust that. First, you say whatever they want to hear to get their votes. Then, you do whatever you need to do to get money and stay in power, regardless of what you said.
Jonathan Allen (or Mitch Trubisky) are far less likely to become a pain in the butt down the road. The writer makes a lot of sense here, and I'd be nervous about drafting Garrett.
In other news, Mary K Cabbot is sticking to her Trubisky first overall theory, which I concur with---I mean if Hue is willing to place his head on that chopping block. (MKC, YOU, or I are not qualified to make this pick).
She is right about there being no such thing as a franchise quarterback tree, and the criticality of getting this thing right, and about Trubisky being the consensus top option here.
Listen: Cody Kessler in the third round was called a "reach". Based on his early returns, he absolutely was NOT. Hue gained some credibility with this gutsy, contrarian pick.
Dak Prescott is not relevant here. Everybody else missed him too, and Dallas is loaded. Stick to the issue: Kessler was a "hit".
That's why Mary K et al are probably wrong about a veteran quarterback being a priority in the second year of this rebuild. Some rookie(s) will be drafted, and will not start. Cody Kessler should start. RG3 was adequate and doesn't cost much. Now they need to pay Tyrod or some other journeyman 14-plus mil to keep Kessler on the bench why?
"Browns Freak", a demented Chicken Little Browns caller on NFL Radio, has declared that Kessler lacks the arm to hit the out routes and is a career backup. This guy makes us all look like idiots. Talk about shit-colored glasses.
No, Jackson did what he could to play to Kessler's strengths, and that was crosses and slants, but when he needed a hard one to the outside, he generally got it there on time. Check out late in his comeback games, when he needed to kill the clock (and the defenses knew it).
Browns Freakin Idjut dammit...
But I regress: Consensus declares Trubisky the best, and almost universally mock drafts him in the top four. So what is this? Are Chicago and San Francisco run by idiots? Sorry to be redundant again ("again" get it?...nevermind), but why would it be dumb to draft our home-boy first overall, but smart to draft him second overall?
You think the ANALYTICS guys are too fixated on numbers?
Yeah I get it: Garrett is all that (Mary Kay doesn't think so, but I do), and could be that unstoppable force and all that. Mitch Trubisky has thirteen starts, just like Marc Sanchez, and could flop! What if Garrett tears up the NFL, and Trubisky sputters and dies? You don't even want to think about it, do you?
Here's another ray of hope: Takeo Spikes is now a co-host on NFL Radio, and a color man for college games. (Remember former Bengals and Bills stud inside and middle linebacker?).
Anyway, Spikes has covered both Watson and Trubisky. His co-host asked him to pick a favorite between them.
Takeo ultimately gave Deshaun Watson the nod, based on his performances in two National Championship games, and the fact that he carried his team to the National championship in his last one.
But it was close, and he said great things about our homie:
He never got rattled. He'd get sacked on second down, and come right back for a 6-14 yard clutch completion for a first down, over and over again. He was pressure-proof; rock-steady. He saw the whole field. He made the right throws, at the right time.
Spikes feels that both these quarterbacks can be (not will but CAN) franchise quarterbacks in time (not right now DO YOU UNDERSTAND?).
Now, I've been saving this, because it's not every day I get to blow Mike Mayock and Gil Brandt out of the water: Gil and Mike want to know why, if Trubisky is that good, he couldn't take over for his predecessor sooner.
That's a legitimate question, but thanks to Terry Pluto, I've got this:
Why didn't you ask Carson Wentz the same question?
Wentz didn't start until his junior season either. Mike? Gil? You've been served!
The difference here is that Mitch is coming out early, after only one year as a starter. Stay with me here, this is not over:
If Wentz had entered the draft after his own junior season (no Senior Bowl btw), where would he have been drafted?
The answer is: "Carson who?"
Still with me? Meanwhile, our homie, after his junior season, is the consensus-best quarterback in an admittedly weak draft class.
So, riddle me this, Batman:
1: Where would Trubisky rank, if he was coming out in the last draft class? My guess is that he might be a shade behind Paxton Lynch, the third quarterback drafted (in the first round). And actually, he might have been ahead of Lynch.
2: If Trubisky had stayed in school, and waited for the 2018 draft, what would have happened? Well, we have just seen Kizer regress, and that is certainly possible...which might well leave him as the third or fourth quarterback drafted anyway.
But it's far more likely that he would have been better than he was in 2016, with a decent shot at being the consensus-best pro prospect...again, even in an stronger draft class.
3: Is starting 12-13 games in a shotgun spread college offense better than collecting splinters and running scout teams in the NFL (and playing eight preseason games etc)? (Answer: NO).
Try to stay with me here! You're learning how to think with your brains! This is important!
Now, Gil Brandt asked another good question: Mitch Trubisky was Mister Ohio stud quarterback, so why does he go to North Carolina instead of Michigan or Ohio State?
Well, this is irrelevant, unless it indicates that he takes the easy way out to avoid stiff competition, or something. If the Big Ten local colleges didn't think that much of him, it doesn't matter, since they would obviously have been wrong.
Mike says he'd be scared to death. Gil says "Buyer Beware". But niether has (as yet) found any real issues with how he plays on the field.
Now here, I do really need to repeat myself, since nobody else gets this yet:
The Cleveland Browns are not like other teams (except maybe the Niners). It is NOT important that any quarterback they draft plays at all in his rookie season. All these real experts, including Mike and Gil, are downgrading Trubisky not on talent, but on lack of starting experience.
Mary Kay has one top talent evaluator who thinks that Trubisky has more upside than Carson Wentz, and I'm pretty sure I know why:
He's more accurate, anticipates better, and has icewater in his veins. He was not surrounded by talent, having inherited a small-pond powerhouse. Instead, he played in a bigger pond, and carried more on his shoulders.
Trubisky is a little shorter and smaller...
Speaking of which, I have some names for Andre Knott: Brian Sipe, Doug Flutie, Fank Ryan, Bill Nelson, Jeff Blake, Jim McMahon, and guys I can't remember now: You don't have to be big or have a cannon to succeed in bad conditions, or in a brutal division (this goes for you too, Tony!)
Also, for that matter, Deshaun Watson is not like RG3. Watson has a normal metabolism and will get bigger. Griffin has a high metabolism, and it's hard for him to pump up. Deshaun is also more a football player than a track star, and is much more durable as-is but I digress yet again:
For the moment, I agree with Mary Kay: There is a reasonable chance that HUE JACKSON will lift his middle digit to the rest of the planet and draft Mitch Trubisky first overall, and I am already filling bags with sand and building claymores as I prepare to defend him (HIM not Sashi Brown) for not drafting Garrett instead, see?
I can't get off Mary Kay though: Hue Jackson never asked for a General Manager in particular or more "football guys" in general. There never was any significant conflict, and Jimmy Haslam has not recently reluctantly given Hue Jackson more influence over personnel decisions.
She is projecting all this stuff. There really is nothing to see here, and you really should move along.
Technically, Sashi Brown controls personnel. Hue Jackson signed off on that, because he's been there/done that and is glad to dump that on somebody else so he can just coach. He did so after having met Sashi and Paul and the Senior scouts (read: "football people").
Sashi Brown is not a powermad dictator, do you understand? He's where he is now more because of his intersocial skills and ability to negotiate and compromise than for his brains. He's not Benito Mussolini, and he knows what he doesn't know.
Hue isn't just pretending to be happy with the arrangement, and isn't lying about it. I hate to sound massogistic here, but I think Mary Kay watches too many Soaps. She's also overrating testosterone.
This is the real deal: Jackson and his assistants, along with Berry and the scouts, actually talk to eachother, and disagree, and argue, about players. Sometimes Sashi Brown is part of it, but more often not.
Where Sashi gets more involved is where he tells these guys what DePodesta said, and explains the business side of things to the many, many "football" people.
If we keep this guy, we can't keep that guy. If we sign this guy, we'll need to cut one of these three, or two of these five. I know this guy is good, but this other younger guy is cheaper, and we think he'll be better next season, so what do you think?
That's what's going on here. No secret power struggles. No bad movies, or Soap Operas. What you see is what you get. Honest!
We're over-cynicized in general, I guess, so we expect lies and duplicity in everything we hear. It's depressing, and irrational.
Anyhow, for the moment, at least, I HOPE the Browns don't screw around, and just draft our homie Mitch Trubisky first overall.
This is more heart than brains. I'm not qualified to make this decision, and am not risking my career on it.
But re-read this from the start if neccessary: I'm no expert on talent, but I've got the critical thinking and logic parts nailed. I give Mitch Trubisky a 50/50 shot at first overall.
If they draft Trubisky and elude the lynch mob for one season, dreams might come true.
...or not I dunno.
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