Sunday, April 20, 2014

Time for Corrections

Mary Kay Cabbot  believes the Browns are way overdue to draft a quarterback in the top five, and therefore should do so this year.

This is only true if any of these quarterbacks are actually franchise players, which is highly debatable.  For every QB success story, even in the top ten, there is a failure story.  Carr, Leaf, Russell, Marinovich--I could go on for quite awhile with this.

"From everything" she's "been hearing", the Browns are just in love with Derek Carr.  I'd say they're doing a great job putting out disinformation, and here's why:

Derek Carr folds under pressure.  While the other guys complete over 56% of their passes against five or more passrushers, Carr is around 40%.  This is similar to his brother David, and to Brandon Weeden.  This is not a mechanical issue that can be ironed out.  It's a lot deeper, and scarier.

I don't buy it.

As I hear more from guys like Staubach, Jaworski, Mayock et al, I get more leery of the top three quarterbacks.  Jaws wouldn't draft Manziel before the fourth round, but (I sort of assume) loves Bridgewater.  Staubach says Manziel is the real deal.  Mayock points out that he becomes ordinary when a defense is able to seal him up in the backfield.

Phil Simms says that Bortles is not a natural thrower, and doesn't like any of the rest any better.  But the only thing he could find on Bridgewater were his gloves.  He can't spin the ball without his gloves on.  I still don't get this: Just let  him  wear    his     gloves.

Matt Cloud has come out with his analysis of Jimmy Garropolo which, in my mind, puts him sort of with Aaron Murray.  Matt grades him out very high, and in response to arm strength stuff I myself have been suckered into repeating, Matt says this:

SUMMARY: If you read some other reports, you’ll see that Garoppolo has “questionable arm strength” & “lacks pocket presence”. Not close to being the case, yet I believe his lack of competition causes many to exaggerate & look for things that really aren’t there!
Regardless of his coming from a small school, Garoppolo will be a winner in the NFL!
This guy could remain on the board at 26, and for that matter it's concievable that so will Bridgewater.  Murray could last into the third round.
Tony Dungee is Murray's cheerleader.  Tony predicted before the '13 season that Murray might make himself the first overall draft choice.  The kid was well on his way to doing exactly that when he tore his acl, and now he seems to be considered a bumb by everybody else...except maybe Ray Farmer I bet.
Like Garopollo, the arm strength thing is exaggerated, and he has an NFL arm.  He's just 6 feet tall, and can't do anything about that.
Now, Peter Smith even said that he doubted that the Browns would draft a quarterback with an acl issue while they already have one that tore his.
Again, I do not understand this:  Is there a quota system?  Murray isn't sprinting or doing agility drills yet, but ran through all the roll-outs with no problems, and is even ahead of Hoyer in his recovery.  He should be cleared for all offseason activities.
So what's the big deal?  For that matter, too much is being made of Hoyer's recovery.  He's a quarterback, and is expected to be ready for preseason.
He got hurt doing an awkward, uncoordinated slide.  It was a FLUKE do you get this?  It says nothing one way or another about his durability, and is not a red flag for any objective observer.
I think it's quite possible that Ray Farmer is ignoring Mel Kiper and the rest of them, and has Garropollo, Bridgewater, and Murray on his list as plans A, B, and C (in what order I don't know).
This is why at four he will...well I don't know what he'll do.  For all I know he'd take Manziel if he's there.  I always lobby for a trade-down, but he might also jump on Mack or even Clowney.

Late edit:  Just re-read Matt's Bridgewater analysis:  (Tight window accuracy issues, weak anticipation VERY bad for Shanahan's system).  If Matt's right, Garopollo is better.
No, I don't think Watkins, because he overkills a need that could be addressed into the third or even fourth round of this draft, whereas the other guys (including an offensive lineman) would make a bigger--if not as entertaining--impact.
I also doubt that Farmer will skip a cornerback, super inside linebacker, or stud reciever to draft Carlos Hyde in the second round.
Not that I don't love the guy myself.  But the guys behind Tate really don't suck.




3 comments:

WaitUntilNextYear said...

As much as it pains me to say this...I think I agree with you on Watkins. I won't cry if Ray picks him at 4, but, you're right that there is much better value to be had from an overall team point of view.

I also agree that Hyde will not be a Cleveland Brown. Tates backup is already on the team and his name is Edwin.

With regard to the QBs...who knows. Everyone is a crap shoot in my opinion. That's why I say "no" to a QB at 4. Whoever you pick there has to be a stud and make an immediate impact and I don't think there's a QB this year who does.

Wile E Coyote said...

Congratulations on your recovery from Watkinsitis! I know it was hard--I had it myself momentarily. Yeah you don't draft a QB that high til you KNOW he da man, especially when you already got Hoyer.

The LEAST Hoyer will be is a top-notch game-manager, and I think he'll be more than that.

Plus, I'm starting to think that either Garopollo or Murray belong with the top guys and are getting dissed for dumb reasons.

Wile E Coyote said...

Damn these comments don't show up on my board! It says zero comments. Please resume commenting and I will comment back. We can argue about Goff vs that passrusher. And stuff.