Wednesday, April 2, 2014

Thinking Inside the Box

A writer I respect said that he "couldn't believe" that the Browns would actually hitch their wagon to Brian Hoyer, and predicted that Hoyer would lose a training camp battle to any drafted quarterback.

What he's really saying is that if he were the coach, he'd rig the race.

I doubt that Brian offended this guy in any way.  I just think the guy is an in-the-box thinker.  More precisely, he's got Brian Hoyer in a box with a label on it.  The label says "Undrafted free agent, career backup", and this guy just doesn't want to open the box and look inside.

I really try not to keep repeating myself here and being boring, but sometimes I can't help it.  Please stipulate that this offense under Hoyer was much, much better than under Weeden or Campbell, and that Hoyer won both the games he played through.

Does this mean anything to you?  Anything at all?

Did you notice that he started out badly, then suddenly got and remained elite?  I'm tired of hearing about the three interceptions.  They all came early in his first start--might was well have been his first start ever.  And he was lights out after that.

How did he win that first start?  He came from behind.  He couldn't hand off.  He threw.  He carried the team.  During that time, he wasn't a "game manager".  He was a franchise quarterback, in his first start.

Who showed him the ropes?  His initials are Tom Brady.

But it was just two and a quarter games, and you can't go on that?  OK.  Well, I'm not going on that.  I want to give him a fair chance because of that.  My mind is open because he passed that audition.

He's an NFL veteran, and you're telling me that any rookie quarterback in this class will be better than he is right out of the gate.

That's just plain ignorant.

No, Khalil Mack is NOT strictly and edge-rusher, and would not neccessarily replace either Kruger or Mingo if he came here.  Pettine said it himself: He can play anywhere.

He's got the ideal height and size to play inside, and can cover.  He's got great instincts, a nose for the ball, and can fight through traffic.  He's a freaking prototype inside linebacker!

He'd be wasted inside?  Why?  Who told you that inside linebackers aren't allowed to blitze?  Would he get more, or fewer tackles for loss inside instead of out on the edge?  

One guy suggested that they should draft Mack and move Kruger inside.  No, I don't think that's dumb at all because I think Kruger could do that, as long as you don't ask him to drop into coverage.

Only this guy has Kruger in a box just like Hoyer and Mack: Can't rush the passer.

Well, he was among the best in QB hurries.  He was in the QB's face as much as anybody else in the NFL, but just didn't get the sacks.  He was excellent against the run.  

Some said that Kruger was a lot more effective with Terrell Suggs than without him.  Statistically, that's true.

Oh I see!  You've got a Mingo box too!  What's that label read--"Bust"?

What if you're wrong about the Mingo box?  What if by some miracle he returns for his second season a little bigger, stronger, and better?  Stranger things have happened, you know!  Believe it or not, players often improve between their first and second seasons!  No really, I mean it!

So would Kruger be better if this impossible thing happens and Mingo starts generating double-digit sacks?

And I forgot Sheard.  Still really like that guy.  He'd never played OLB himself...by the way I bet HE could play ILB too.

If the Browns draft Khalil Mack, he will most likely start at inside linebacker.  It's just another label anyway, since they won't be in a 3-4 even half the time.  Mostly sub-defenses and sometimes 4-3.  He'll be outside and inside and all over the place.  Don't worry about it.  Just add some more labels to the box you stuffed him in.

Mack near the middle puts his speed near the middle.  It puts him closer to the quarterback and the backfield.  It enables him to penetrate and pursue to both sides.  Every inside run is going to or near him.

Mack inside next to Dansby--his teacher wow--is a major difference-maker against both the pass and the run.  

Ask Pettine: an inside linebacker can get double-digit sacks.  You CAN rush the passer from between the tackles ah!  OH!  You got your 3-4 defense box too!  I get it!  You can only blitze from the outside in a 3-4!

Well, that's crap.  It's been crap for awhile.  Check out Belichick's Superbowl teams and see where the heat came from.  This is the AFC North, and you're still stuck on the old Steeler's 3-4 with Greene and those guys.

Nor has the NFL stagnated.  Today's tackles are quicker, with longer arms.  It takes more time to reach a QB from the edge, and other answers were 3 step drops, the pistol, and quicker throws.  Even the Cameron/Winslow type tight ends were partly a response to that edge-rushing 3-4.

All these innovations, by the way, were brought to you by out-of-the-box thinkers who people like you laughed at.

I'd rather have some guy coming at me from ten yards away and from the side than from three yards away right in my face.  How 'bout you?

It's all moot if they don't draft Khalil Mack, but I'm about up to my hairline with blockheads.  Clean out your attic, or at least update your labels.

Khalil Mack: Cross out "edge" and write "pass" instead.  Hoyer:  Cross out "career backup" and at least draw a question mark dammit.

Mike Pettine seems to agree with me that Roberts doesn't suck, either.  In the cover two, the ILB shouldn't have to man up on skyscrapers as much, and Pettine likes his instincts and speed.

Of course, he'll still look for a guy to replace him with.

Lane Adkins reported that "from what we've been told" the Browns might seek to get five picks in the top 50.  Not really.  That was a column by--maybe it was Nate Ullrich--I can't find it for a proper attiribution.  But this writer suggested that that might be a good idea.  Lane read it and wrote it up.

This writer's idea was that maybe they should turn the two third rounders into a second and the two fourths into a third, along with moving back a little from four and picking up another second rounder.

This is nice out-of-the-box thinking.  This guy sees that this is already a very young team, with a number of recent picks just about due to emerge and blossom.  He doesn't think that adding more quantity in this draft makes as much sense as adding fewer, but better, players.

His logic obviously persuaded Lane, who projected it into the mind of Ray Farmer, and has me thinking hard as well.  In this draft, that could mean five or six new starters!

You can get really good guards, centers, possession recievers, inside linebackers, and safeties in the second and third rounds of any draft.  In this draft, some scouts and analysts have said that a middle second round pick is as good as a first rounder in most drafts!

This is why moving back from four in this one to get another second rounder is like turning three first round picks into four.  Would the two third rounders turn into a second, or yet another first-round graded player?  Would the fourth rounders actually get a second round talent?  Interesting!

In all this talk about the Browns need for a cornerback, I've forgotten Leon McFadden.  Sure, he sucked as a rookie, but he might come back like Buster Skrine did and be pretty good in his second season.  I'm not predicting that he will, just saying that he might, and we shouldn't be in that big a hurry to write him off yet.

More on Chris Faulk, who I think could surprise and take over one of the guard spots.  I didn't know this stuff: He was first a defensive end, and played center in basketball.  His weaknesses were all technique (he was a left tackle).

He was still very raw and inexperienced at the position even before his injury, but guard is different, and the Browns have an excellent line coach.  Even if this guy is still rough around the edges, he may be able to overcome mistakes with his wingspan, size, and feet.

When considering the consolidation of draft picks, Farmer and company will be putting it in context:  Can Gilkey or Faulk fill one of those spots?  Should we stick with Schwartze?  Is Mack gonna burn us no matter what?  
As you know because I've told you, "needs" are often hallucinations in the minds of pundits.  If Farmer thinks that five or six better players will fill all the remaining needs and put the Browns in contention, he should go for it.

Here's a sleeper tight end who tore up the Senior Bowl: Crockett Gilmore.

The scouting report pans him, but that's not what I saw him do against elite competition.  He projects to be a seventh rounder or a priority free agent, but he's a lot better than that.

He needs a lot of work and refinement, and he's not as fast as Cameron, but with some work he can become an excellent conventional tight end who can both block and catch.


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