A Rare Opportunity of a Draft

If you look at the grades assigned by the NFL's Draft Tracker, they're misleading.  

For example, "OT" Zack Martin has a 5.9 grade, which is on the high side of "Has a chance to become an NFL starter".  That's laughable.  Zack Martin will start at guard somewhere, immediately.  

Clowney is a 7.5, and Watkins is five points below him at 7.0.  

Robinson, Mack, and Matthews are the next three at 6.7.  Barr is 6.6, Mosely 6.5, and Ebron, Benjamin and Bortles are 6.4.

Bortles is the first QB listed.  6.4 is "Should become instant NFL starter".  Bridgewater is a close second with 6.3.  I guess all these scouts and GMs are missing something, since they're saying that Bortles is fairly raw, and Bridgewater is NFL-ready.

Manziel, by the way, is tied with Gabe Jackson at 5.9.

I'll go with Tony Dungee and others, who seem to roughly agree that this draft includes players with first round grades going deep into the second round.  In other words, an average draft will have just about 32 players with first round grades on them.  This one is just overloaded with them.

It doesn't stop there, but there will be players taken in the third round who rate the second, etc.

1: Take your brain out of it's box.  I'll wait...

2: We'll just round the first round GRADED guys down to 45.  (You took your brain out of it's box, right?  Ok stay with me here).

3:  Let's say there are maybe 40 second round GRADED guys, which takes us through 85 players.

We don't need to go lower than that--just remember it.

Now, all we need to do is check out the last few Pro Bowl rosters, and see where players at different positions were drafted.  Most of the quarterbacks were first rounders, of course.  Running backs come from everywhere, including undrafted guys.  Tight ends tend to be first rounders, but there are no few exceptions.  Wide reciever is first round heavy, but significant number of Pro Bowl WR's come from lower rounds.  Left tackles are usually first rounders, but here again, every other offensive line position comes from everywhere, and the pattern is that fourth rounders and above have a decent shot.

Fullbacks and inside linebackers can come from the middle and lower rounds.  3-4 OLB's--I won't belabor it.  I'm basically saying that quarterback is the only position where more than maybe 4 out of five are first rounders.

A good talent evaluator like the guy in Pittsburgh or New England (or hopefully Ray Farmer) can find this kind of talent throughout a draft.  (And he might cut him two or three times along the way, like James Harrison.)

Now, back to the 45 first round graded and 40 second round graded players in this draft (disclaimer: I haven't researched this so I'm probably inaccurate--my POINT is more important).

Say at four Bridgewater, Watkins, one of the two top tackles, Mack, Manziel, and Barr are there (I include Barr because somebody else might want him a lot).  Five of these players address a position of need on the Browns roster, and would make an immediate and significant impact.

To me, this means that you could move down four slots, and still get an impact player at the top if your board (I'm assuming a lot--Ray Farmer will have his own board).  

This is the cream of the draft, and as long as you get one of those players, you have made a significant upgrade.  Now, you have your top-flight future Pro-Bowler in the bank, and you have added another second rounder; another player with first round talent in this draft.

You started out with (in effect stay with me here) three first rounders and now you have four (first round GRADES ok I won't keep repeating that ok?)

Ok now I'll go back to that writer who thought the Browns should consolidate their picks.  The two third rounders could become another second rounder--and in this draft this could be yet a FIFTH first round talent, see?

But that's just one approach.  Because actually in the third round, especially in this draft, you can find starting guards, insurance centers, and even big man cornerbacks.  Maybe the best fullback in the entire draft.

Maybe you could combine the two fourth rounders and get another third rounder with second round talent instead.  This would be quite a haul--essentially four first rounders, two second rounders, and even the low third rounder that came from Indi is almost a second rounder in this draft.  SEVEN players who would come right in and challenge for starting positions.

Then maybe trade the 5th for a '15 4th, etc. to upgrade and get rid of the rest of those picks (oh heaven forfend we have money and don't SPEND it all right away!  Next thing you know, you'll want to INVEST it or something!)

Here's your homework: Try to find seven positions of need on this roster.

Get it?