Sunday, April 27, 2014

Smart and Dumb Browns Draft Analysis

First, I have to copy/paste the following comment from Ask Mary Kay


@By-Tor @coolerdawg   By the way... The phrase "dual-threat" is my pet peeve because it's a code word for "black" in the media.  I find this infuriating (not to mention, racist).

And for the record... MKC referred to Bridgewater as a "dual-threat quarterback" in one of her "Hey, MKC!" columns about a month ago, which I found to be both terribly inaccurate and also extremely low-rent racist.

I'm sick of this idiocy.  Tarkenton, Elway, Kaepernick, and Manziel aren't black.  Goobers like this see "code words" and racism in everything.  They think it's still the fifties.  Racism will never go away completely, but bullcrap like this is exactly what perpetuates it.  Because it's just so freaking retarded.  Because how can you talk to somebody like this?

Know what else?  The only possible reason I disagree with him is because I'm racist!  Chuh.

But on Bridgewater: he avoided running except when necessary, but he has some real good wheels.  I'd add that he might be be the best defense-reader/decision-maker in this crop, but that would be racist.

Mary Kay agrees with some of her questioners that drafting an offensive lineman at four would be unwise.  I'm only half-persuaded.  You see, there's a whole lot of ass uming going on here: either of the top two tackles can also play guard, and would be extremely effective there in a zone scheme.

But here's a surprisingly intelligent copy/paste from the same column:

RT no longer has a TE to chip next to him so teams are playing their #1 pass rusher over RT.
(TE's are routinely split as Cameron is hence Jimmy Graham's complaint alleging he is a WR.)
And most teams have a near equally talented #2 pass rusher.
RT's must be  nearly as talented as LT's, and having a first rate RT is imperative.
Fragel, Faulk, and Schwartz may have the talent to become premier RT's, or may not.
GM Farmer, Coach Pettine and staff must make that call based on their analysis.
If they decide to draft Mathews or Robinson, I will not be at all disappointed.

This guy gets it.  Schwartze can be overmatched by the speed guys and did get some tight end help.  This is actually pretty common in the NFL, as the majority of right tackles just don't have left tackle feet.

This is one of the reasons why Jabaal Sheard lobbied for and got the strong side DE slot in his rookie 4-3.  He knew that most right tackles were really sort of extra-tall guards who couldn't keep up with him.

But Schwartze might be okay.  This will be his third season, and for the later majority of last season he rated pretty high.  He'll never have left tackle skills, but on this level playing field, he's one of the better right tackles in the NFL.

I've also been talking about Faulk as a guard--this goes for right tackle, too.  We'll leave that to the coaches.

God no please do take Derek Carr. Although he has all the physical attributes  of a great QB like Brandon Weedon go watch his bowl game vs USC. He cannot make the throws under pressure like Brandon Weedon.

There's another smart one!  Yes, this is a Weedenesque trait and is a big problem!  Some things can't be coached out of a player's psyche.  This is a hard-wired fight-or-flight response.  I agree with this guy.

Another commenter asserted that trade-downs have never worked for this team.  That is a shallow kneejerk non-analysis.

First off, different people were doing the picking, and a trade-down works fine as long as you're right about the players you pick.  If you trade down and "miss", it's not because the trade-down was a mistake.  It's because you missed.

Every year there are the wouldas and shouldas, right?  "They passed on this guy and this guy and took this bumb instead!".  You see?  There were good players there after the trade-downs, weren't there?  So maybe Ray Farmer picks the right guys this time DUH.

Another guy suggested trading down with Detroit, who supposedly want Watkins--and pick up a second.  It would be more than a second to move down six slots.  More like a second and a third.  Or more.  So I kinda doubt that Detroit would pay the price.

I'd take that deal, though!  

Everybody is talking about the Shanahan offense as if he invented it when he went to Washington, and then got a quarterback who would suit it.  Wrong!  He adapted his offense to his players.  He'll do that here.  It so happens that Hoyer is pretty athletic, so there will be roll-outs and stuff like that.

This is why Cousins ran a different package than RG3.

If he had a Kosar or a Mallet (I doubt this rumor by the way), he'd keep him in the pocket.

I personally was suckered in by Tony Grossi's wishful thinking when Kyle came on board here.  Tony had me convinced that Kyle always had a blocking fullback, and didn't use blocking tight ends.

That's not true either.  He's done both, and I think it's once again this guy being smart and adaptable enough to build his offense around the talent he has.

Tony's just got this obsessive thing about a blocking fullback.  Well, if he stays healthy, Ray Farmer has just signed a really good one, so I hope Tony can move on now.

Ah! Another dumb one!  This guy says that because the Browns already have four OLB's, Khalil Mack might only get 15 snaps/game of they drafted him.  Do you see what I was talking about with Thinking Inside the Box?

Yeah so you have Roberts and Mack, but you can't play Mack.  Why?  Because he's an outside linebacker, and Roberts is the starting inside guy.  So you have to play Roberts and keep Mack on the bench.  BRILLIANT!

I can't track down where I read this for attribution, but one writer suggested that Jabaal Sheard could be trade-bait.  This is possible, and he's worth at least a high second round pick.

I love Sheard, who is not just a passrusher, but a really good all-around player.  But his contract is pending, the Browns do have depth, and might well be adding to it through the draft.

It's at least as likely that he'll stick around, though.  He can put his hand on the ground in Pettine's hybrid, he's still young, and Groves might be in his final season here.  It's just that if somebody offers a high second round pick for him, I'd take it.  That's a stud ILB, starting corner, stud guard, or starting wide-out in this draft.

Right now here is my updated prediction at number four:

The Browns will draft a quarterback, wide reciever, linebacker, offensive lineman, or trade down.  Take it to the bank.


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