Dear Ray Farmer: I Found Your Reciever!

Scout.com had this statistical analysis of the top several recievers in this draft by Dave Te' Thomas.  Please inform Tony G that Kelvin Edwards...err I mean Greg Benjamin was not among them.

Anyway I think Dave was tired, because in his conclusion he seemed to mix up Watkins and Matthews.  (He was troubled by Matthews' 3 drops, but the chart listed ZERO drops for Matthews and 3 for Saint Sammy the Divine).

Jordon Matthews is the guy that you should pay attention to.  I sent the Scout.com link for you to peruse this in-depth statistical chart for yourself, but if you have any questions, feel free to email me...for once.

Anyway he's Jerry Rice's cousin and is being called a "West Coast" reciever.  Most of his catches were short ones that he took off and ran with. 

The scouting report contradicts almost all of his stats.  Like Josh Gordon, his about average clock-time is deceptive because he's a long strider.  The report says he "won't run away from anybody" but that's patently incorrect.  (I know all I saw were highlights, but he got the ball and outsprinted everybody again and again--how can they say that stuff?)

He's physically like Josh in stature and strength, as well.  Make no mistake--Josh Gordon IS faster than Matthews, and in the NFL Matthews might not become a number one, but he's just about perfect for number two on your team.

He's RELIABLE as hell, as you can see by the fact that he caught over 87% of the passes thrown to him by four different quarterbacks!!!  FOUR!  He accounted most of his team's offense.

The report also called him skinny.  Well he's not all built up in his upper body (YET), but that's still wrong.

I know that statistics can be deceptive, but they are good for showing patterns and tendencies, and per those charts Dave put together, Matthews is better than everybody else, including Watkins.

He's projected to go in the second or third round, Ray!  

That's why I just had to tell you about him--Grossi just mocked you drafting Kelvin Little at 26!

Ok Benjamin.  I know he's a big monster and could immediately run all Cameron's routes for depth and most of his drops were from looking to run before he'd secured it and he's less experienced and might improve, so I can't pick on Tony for his theory that you'd take him there.

But now that I've told you about Matthews, you can think about a cornerback, ILB, Garropollo/Murray (oops) or guard there instead, and steal Matthews later.

The guy that was really close to Matthews in the stats was Brandin Cooks, and he's projected for the second or third round too.  But you can ask Kyle about this:  Matthews is the better fit here as the number two.  Cooks is 5'10", 186, but was super-reliable, productive, and is a burner.

But as Kyle will tell you, he got Hawkins to compete for the slot, and Matthews has the size and catch-radius to run the slants and crosses number two will need to run against press man coverages, and is lethal in the red zone. 

Just keep Cooks in mind in case he slides some more, because he's not just a slot guy, but can play outside as well.  He'd be a steal in the third, even if you already have Matthews.

Hey are you going to start paying me anytime soon?

Smart and Dumb Browns Draft Analysis

First, I have to copy/paste the following comment from Ask Mary Kay: 


@By-Tor @coolerdawg   By the way... The phrase "dual-threat" is my pet peeve because it's a code word for "black" in the media.  I find this infuriating (not to mention, racist).

And for the record... MKC referred to Bridgewater as a "dual-threat quarterback" in one of her "Hey, MKC!" columns about a month ago, which I found to be both terribly inaccurate and also extremely low-rent racist.

I'm sick of this idiocy.  Tarkenton, Elway, Kaepernick, and Manziel aren't black.  Goobers like this see "code words" and racism in everything.  They think it's still the fifties.  Racism will never go away completely, but bullcrap like this is exactly what perpetuates it.  Because it's just so freaking retarded.  Because how can you talk to somebody like this?

Know what else?  The only possible reason I disagree with him is because I'm racist!  Chuh.

But on Bridgewater: he avoided running except when necessary, but he has some real good wheels.  I'd add that he might be be the best defense-reader/decision-maker in this crop, but that would be racist.

Mary Kay agrees with some of her questioners that drafting an offensive lineman at four would be unwise.  I'm only half-persuaded.  You see, there's a whole lot of ass uming going on here: either of the top two tackles can also play guard, and would be extremely effective there in a zone scheme.

But here's a surprisingly intelligent copy/paste from the same column:

RT no longer has a TE to chip next to him so teams are playing their #1 pass rusher over RT.
(TE's are routinely split as Cameron is hence Jimmy Graham's complaint alleging he is a WR.)
And most teams have a near equally talented #2 pass rusher.
RT's must be  nearly as talented as LT's, and having a first rate RT is imperative.
Fragel, Faulk, and Schwartz may have the talent to become premier RT's, or may not.
GM Farmer, Coach Pettine and staff must make that call based on their analysis.
If they decide to draft Mathews or Robinson, I will not be at all disappointed.

This guy gets it.  Schwartze can be overmatched by the speed guys and did get some tight end help.  This is actually pretty common in the NFL, as the majority of right tackles just don't have left tackle feet.

This is one of the reasons why Jabaal Sheard lobbied for and got the strong side DE slot in his rookie 4-3.  He knew that most right tackles were really sort of extra-tall guards who couldn't keep up with him.

But Schwartze might be okay.  This will be his third season, and for the later majority of last season he rated pretty high.  He'll never have left tackle skills, but on this level playing field, he's one of the better right tackles in the NFL.

I've also been talking about Faulk as a guard--this goes for right tackle, too.  We'll leave that to the coaches.

God no please do take Derek Carr. Although he has all the physical attributes  of a great QB like Brandon Weedon go watch his bowl game vs USC. He cannot make the throws under pressure like Brandon Weedon.

There's another smart one!  Yes, this is a Weedenesque trait and is a big problem!  Some things can't be coached out of a player's psyche.  This is a hard-wired fight-or-flight response.  I agree with this guy.

Another commenter asserted that trade-downs have never worked for this team.  That is a shallow kneejerk non-analysis.

First off, different people were doing the picking, and a trade-down works fine as long as you're right about the players you pick.  If you trade down and "miss", it's not because the trade-down was a mistake.  It's because you missed.

Every year there are the wouldas and shouldas, right?  "They passed on this guy and this guy and took this bumb instead!".  You see?  There were good players there after the trade-downs, weren't there?  So maybe Ray Farmer picks the right guys this time DUH.

Another guy suggested trading down with Detroit, who supposedly want Watkins--and pick up a second.  It would be more than a second to move down six slots.  More like a second and a third.  Or more.  So I kinda doubt that Detroit would pay the price.

I'd take that deal, though!  

Everybody is talking about the Shanahan offense as if he invented it when he went to Washington, and then got a quarterback who would suit it.  Wrong!  He adapted his offense to his players.  He'll do that here.  It so happens that Hoyer is pretty athletic, so there will be roll-outs and stuff like that.

This is why Cousins ran a different package than RG3.

If he had a Kosar or a Mallet (I doubt this rumor by the way), he'd keep him in the pocket.

I personally was suckered in by Tony Grossi's wishful thinking when Kyle came on board here.  Tony had me convinced that Kyle always had a blocking fullback, and didn't use blocking tight ends.

That's not true either.  He's done both, and I think it's once again this guy being smart and adaptable enough to build his offense around the talent he has.

Tony's just got this obsessive thing about a blocking fullback.  Well, if he stays healthy, Ray Farmer has just signed a really good one, so I hope Tony can move on now.

Ah! Another dumb one!  This guy says that because the Browns already have four OLB's, Khalil Mack might only get 15 snaps/game of they drafted him.  Do you see what I was talking about with Thinking Inside the Box?

Yeah so you have Roberts and Mack, but you can't play Mack.  Why?  Because he's an outside linebacker, and Roberts is the starting inside guy.  So you have to play Roberts and keep Mack on the bench.  BRILLIANT!

I can't track down where I read this for attribution, but one writer suggested that Jabaal Sheard could be trade-bait.  This is possible, and he's worth at least a high second round pick.

I love Sheard, who is not just a passrusher, but a really good all-around player.  But his contract is pending, the Browns do have depth, and might well be adding to it through the draft.

It's at least as likely that he'll stick around, though.  He can put his hand on the ground in Pettine's hybrid, he's still young, and Groves might be in his final season here.  It's just that if somebody offers a high second round pick for him, I'd take it.  That's a stud ILB, starting corner, stud guard, or starting wide-out in this draft.

Right now here is my updated prediction at number four:

The Browns will draft a quarterback, wide reciever, linebacker, offensive lineman, or trade down.  Take it to the bank.

Time for Corrections

Mary Kay Cabbot  believes the Browns are way overdue to draft a quarterback in the top five, and therefore should do so this year.

This is only true if any of these quarterbacks are actually franchise players, which is highly debatable.  For every QB success story, even in the top ten, there is a failure story.  Carr, Leaf, Russell, Marinovich--I could go on for quite awhile with this.

"From everything" she's "been hearing", the Browns are just in love with Derek Carr.  I'd say they're doing a great job putting out disinformation, and here's why:

Derek Carr folds under pressure.  While the other guys complete over 56% of their passes against five or more passrushers, Carr is around 40%.  This is similar to his brother David, and to Brandon Weeden.  This is not a mechanical issue that can be ironed out.  It's a lot deeper, and scarier.

I don't buy it.

As I hear more from guys like Staubach, Jaworski, Mayock et al, I get more leery of the top three quarterbacks.  Jaws wouldn't draft Manziel before the fourth round, but (I sort of assume) loves Bridgewater.  Staubach says Manziel is the real deal.  Mayock points out that he becomes ordinary when a defense is able to seal him up in the backfield.

Phil Simms says that Bortles is not a natural thrower, and doesn't like any of the rest any better.  But the only thing he could find on Bridgewater were his gloves.  He can't spin the ball without his gloves on.  I still don't get this: Just let  him  wear    his     gloves.

Matt Cloud has come out with his analysis of Jimmy Garropolo which, in my mind, puts him sort of with Aaron Murray.  Matt grades him out very high, and in response to arm strength stuff I myself have been suckered into repeating, Matt says this:

SUMMARY: If you read some other reports, you’ll see that Garoppolo has “questionable arm strength” & “lacks pocket presence”. Not close to being the case, yet I believe his lack of competition causes many to exaggerate & look for things that really aren’t there!

Regardless of his coming from a small school, Garoppolo will be a winner in the NFL!

This guy could remain on the board at 26, and for that matter it's concievable that so will Bridgewater.  Murray could last into the third round.

Tony Dungee is Murray's cheerleader.  Tony predicted before the '13 season that Murray might make himself the first overall draft choice.  The kid was well on his way to doing exactly that when he tore his acl, and now he seems to be considered a bumb by everybody else...except maybe Ray Farmer I bet.

Like Garopollo, the arm strength thing is exaggerated, and he has an NFL arm.  He's just 6 feet tall, and can't do anything about that.

Now, Peter Smith even said that he doubted that the Browns would draft a quarterback with an acl issue while they already have one that tore his.

Again, I do not understand this:  Is there a quota system?  Murray isn't sprinting or doing agility drills yet, but ran through all the roll-outs with no problems, and is even ahead of Hoyer in his recovery.  He should be cleared for all offseason activities.

So what's the big deal?  For that matter, too much is being made of Hoyer's recovery.  He's a quarterback, and is expected to be ready for preseason.

He got hurt doing an awkward, uncoordinated slide.  It was a FLUKE do you get this?  It says nothing one way or another about his durability, and is not a red flag for any objective observer.

I think it's quite possible that Ray Farmer is ignoring Mel Kiper and the rest of them, and has Garropollo, Bridgewater, and Murray on his list as plans A, B, and C (in what order I don't know).

This is why at four he will...well I don't know what he'll do.  For all I know he'd take Manziel if he's there.  I always lobby for a trade-down, but he might also jump on Mack or even Clowney.

Late edit:  Just re-read Matt's Bridgewater analysis:  (Tight window accuracy issues, weak anticipation VERY bad for Shanahan's system).  If Matt's right, Garopollo is better.

No, I don't think Watkins, because he overkills a need that could be addressed into the third or even fourth round of this draft, whereas the other guys (including an offensive lineman) would make a bigger--if not as entertaining--impact.

I also doubt that Farmer will skip a cornerback, super inside linebacker, or stud reciever to draft Carlos Hyde in the second round.

Not that I don't love the guy myself.  But the guys behind Tate really don't suck.

Dear Ray: Wait I got more advice on the draft!

Last week I advised you to take Teddy Bridgewater, but now I think maybe you should reconsider Manziel.

I know that until now I've told you to skip this guy, so no doubt you haven't checked him out for yourself.  I'm really sorry about that, but you still have time.

Anyway, first I heard that he outscored the whole draft class in the Wonderlick.  Then, I saw him with John Gruden (who of course loved him.  And Teddy.  And Derrick.  And Blake...)

He seemed very sober, mature, and articulate.  The way he speaks, unrehearsed, is devoid of "uh"'s, "I mean"'s (Note to football players: Don't start paragraphs with "I mean", okay?  I mean, you're just killing me, man!)

I mean, his mind seems ordered and quick.  There is no pretense about him.  Nothing intimidates him, yet he's not arrogant.  

Most recently, Matt Cloud on Browns Front Page did his own film evaluations of Bridgewater and Manziel, and opened my eyes further.

Matt points out that Evans didn't make him look good, as FOUR of Manziel's recievers caught over fifty passes.  He's had better success with deeper passes than Teddy, and in Matt's opinion:

Manziel is more accurate than Bridgewater.

Matt says that Manziel will need to get rid of the ball quicker and more often in the NFL--he's too stubborn.  He also needs better touch on fade routes.  Matt believes he puts too much air under them, giving defenders a chance to recover.

This is easy to fix, especially for a guy as smart as Johnny.  What would be worse would be if his tendency was to always throw low and hard.

What hit me hardest about Matt's evaluation of Manziel was his phenominal ACCURACY between 11-20 yards, where all NFL quarterbacks, regardless of system, make their money--or don't.

Manziel's short and intermediate accuracy play well to Shanahan's semi-West Coast system.  Per Matt, he anticipates well.

Matt did grade Manziel lower than Bridgewater, but picked on him mainly over correctable things.  Manziel is only 21, and much less experienced than Teddy.

Your potential problem could be WHEN Hoyer, as you know, earns back his starting job over the rookie.  Will Johnny accept it?

After seeing him with Gruden, I feel better about it.  He seems like a kid who indeed believes he's better than any other quarterback (a good thing!), but can accept results:

Results as in Hoyer got more first downs, TD's, fewer picks etc. in camp, so he won, period.

I didn't see an egomaniac or insecurity (usually the same thing, believe it or not).  He seems grounded in reality.

I just know that there's no quit in him.  I don't believe he's capable of "losing it"; not emotionally fragile at all.  He can throw an interception, and will come right back and not hesitate.  He'll remember what he did wrong, and try not to repeat it--but you won't see him--well--looking like Weeden, you know?

Before, I said comparisons between him and Brees or Wilson were rediculous, but that was before I saw that Wonderlick thing, and saw him with Gruden.

He's not like that right now, but could well become that in a year or two.

In conclusion, Ray, forget what I said about Manziel before--it's okay for you to draft him if you think he won't get busted up.

Signing Chris Pressley was a smart no-risk move.  I wish he could catch better, but he sure can block!  Kinda like a big bowling ball rolling through the hole.

Rational Browns Analysis

Buckeye Sports came up with some more enlightened, smart articles about the Browns draft, and what they might do.  I just love those guys!

A recent one at the time I write this is about the Browns trade-down options.  The article suggests the Falcons at six or the Vikings at eight as potential partners.

The latest article asserts that yes, the Browns can afford to wait on a quarterback because Rodney Hoyerfield is here.

Think about this: Hoyer outclassed Weeden and Campbell with the same offense.  Sure, we might be concerned about the small sample size, and the possibility that with extended play Hoyer will come back down to earth.

On the other hand, he didn't have Hawkins, Burleson, or Tate.  At least one of the Browns mid-to-high draft picks will be an offensive lineman who will upgrade his protection.

The Shanahans have never failed to produce an effective ground game, and they're more run-oriented than most offenses.  Kyle's passing scheme is better suited to Hoyer's skill-set than Norv Turner's was, and the quarterback tends to get rid of the ball quicker.

Then there's the fact that every one of this year's top quarterbacks have warts, and the consensus is that none of them warrant top ten consideration.

The article lists the second-tier candidates who will be available later in the draft.  Savage is one that Phil Simms and others are only now making me aware of.

These guys have warts too, but no analyst should regard an acl injury as one of them, and as I've said a number of times, level of competition means less for a quarterback than for players at other positions.

As the article says, if you have Watkinsitis, Evans will be on the board after a trade-down, and for this team at this time, he might even be the better pick.  Evans is is a mismatching physical run-after-catch dominator with a lot of big plays of his own, and he's the most reliable guy in this year's class.

Another Buckeye sports article lists five offensive linemen who would help the Browns.  One is Anthony Steen, projected as a 4th or 5th rounder.  Steen looks dumpy, but has surprising agility and would excel in a zone scheme.

Another article puts forth the potential of Detroit trading up from the tenth spot to nab Sammy Watkins.  Now we're in Julio Jones territory.  I doubt that Detroit would be willing to pay that price, but if they were, I'd be all over it, and probably still get Evans at ten.

Really, Detroit is more likely to target Evans themselves.  

Another article wondered about trading up for Derek Carr.  I sort of ignored it, and guess it might have been written on April 1.

I really needed to check out Buckeye Sports today, because yesterday I read another article in Rant Sports that made me feel as if everybody else is too dumb to talk to or about.

This one suggested trading UP, since in this deep draft the top teams might be more willing to do this, and since Hoyer sucks, and since the Browns need a quarterback--any quarterback--...they also list safety as one of the top needs.

And of course they have too many holes to fix in one draft anyway.  They'll keep saying that after the Browns have one or two new starting offensive linemen, and good number two reciever, another inside linebacker, a partner for Haden, and even a backup Cameron-like tight end.

They keep saying it because it's a habit, and thinking is not.

Garopollo is another guy Buckeye Sports spent more time on.  The only question about this guy is his arm.  

Well, anyway, the guys at Buckeye Sports are almost as smart as my humble self, so you should check them out.

Why Fans Should Never Run Teams

The Alex Mack situation:  Tony Grossi nails this.  The crap I've been hearing about Ray Farmer "bungling" this is the highest grade of pure idiocy I've heard in several days.

To franchise Mack would have cost the Browns around 12 mil for one season.  He might well have simply played this out and then left after one year.  

You could just franchise him again?  What's that--14 million for a center?  What's Joe Thomas and his agent going to ask for when his contract comes up?

We would have got two first round picks for him?  What are you smoking?

There's a chart which ranks the importance of each position.  Agents and teams go by this chart.  Quarterback is at the top, then DE, et al.  Center is at or near the bottom of this chart.  The tag isn't important.  The salary is.  

If you pay a center 12 million, the agents for Haden, Thomas, Gordon etc. sit up and take notice.  The drool a little, and rub their hands together.  
Some of you clowns say "it's only a little under two million".  That's because you are oblivious to the domino effect.

The transition tag was expensive enough, but by using it on a player who refused to sign, Farmer avoided the possibility of that player just going somewhere else and not coming back.

Knowing this, several other teams who would have been interested and bid on Mack didn't bother, because they knew that unless they got stupid, the Browns would match and they'd have wasted their time.

The end result is that the Browns have nailed Alex Mack down for two or more years for 1.5 million less than the transition tag.  This is about what Ray Farmer expected.  I know he's glad he ignored everybody else.

Ross Tucker, who played guard and center in the NFL, said that the offer was rediculous for a center, and that whichever team wound up with Mack would be the the dumber part of dumb and dumber.

But there was more to it here: Did you notice Joe Thomas assuring everybody that his good pal Mack would be back?  What if the Browns hadn't matched?  Joe would be ticked off.  This could have pretty nasty consequences down the road, like when Joe's contract comes up again.

I have massive respect for Ross Tucker, and am pretty sure he's as right about this as he is about everything else he says about offensive linemen.  But other valued sources, including Pat Kirwan, think that this was a good move, and was handled as well as it could be handled.

Salaries are what salaries are, and this contract makes Alex Mack the highest paid center in the NFL by maybe a half million bucks.  If he's the best, that's what it takes.  If Khalil and/or another is really better, then they're overpaying--but not by much.

Ross would say that centers in general are being overpaid (this is what he's really saying: he regards center as about the least important offensive line position).  But this is the market.

After hearing what Ross said, I was thinking that maybe it would be better not to match this offer, as the Browns could get a viable or even a good center in this draft as low as the fourth round for nickles and dimes.  Then they'd save a ton of cap space.

But the market would come back to haunt then in three years anyway, there's the Joe Thomas and continuity factor, and the fact that with one exception, none of the potential centers in this draft appear to have a chance of ever even eventually becoming as good as Mack will be in this new offense,

And each draft pick is valuable.  When you lose a veteran starter and have to use a pick to replace him, that's one less option you have.  It's a linebacker/fullback/whatever that you have to pass up, or a deal you can't make.

More Idiocy: One film reviewer said that "Draft Day" was a decent film, but had nothing to do with reality, as the Browns have sucked for decades now.

Enough said?

In Rant Sports, I found this article on the Browns biggest offseason mistakes so far.  I hate these articles, because the writers assumptions and unrealistic expectations play too large a role.

How much were the Browns supposed to pay the 30-year old D'Qwell Jackson, and for how long?  The writer seems to think that they should have signed whatever deal his agent presented to them.

They tried to sign cornerbacks.  They failed.  I suppose they were supposed to pay any price here again.  That's if they could have persuaded any of the candidates to even talk to them!

But here are the dumbest parts of this article: This goober says that failing to interview the Seahawks and Denver assistants for the Head coaching position was a mistake.

If you like the guy in front of you, and don't believe that the other candidates can beat him, you hire him and send the other guys home, period.  

Haslam did like Pettine, a lot.  and Pettine pretty much gave him an ultimatum:  I can't wait two more weeks.  Hire me now or I stick with the Bills.  So was Haslam supposed to let the bird in the hand go?  Mistake my foot.

And this clown thinks they should have franchise tagged Mack.  Know why?  Because that way the other team would have had to give the Browns two first round picks.

That's right!  This guy thinks that some other team giving up two first round picks for a center was a realistic possibility, and that paying Mack like a left tackle for one year would be better than matching an offer from the market!

Where do they get these guys?

Dear Ray-Ray:

First of all, it's starting to bug me that you never answer me and thank me for all my great advice.  I think somebody in your office is screening your email and filtering me out.  You should fire that person, as this stuff is really important!  How can you make intelligent draft decisions without advice from real experts like me?

Anyway, I know you want Bridgewater.  I mean, like you care that he wears gloves and has small hands?  The gloves make his hands a little bigger, right?  Right?

Yeah ok so he's a little small, as if he'll always be small.  Hey are they allowed to play hookie and not show up for strength training?  

Wait--before I steal this guy's stuff let me give you his link: This guy is smart.

You played linebacker, right?  So would you rather play against Bridgewater or Brandon Weeden?  What's that?  But...but Weeden is big and tall!  He has big hands!  Good mechanics!

I hear ya.  Stop laughing for a minute: I keep hearing Mike Mayock being quoted (I'll paraphrase):  "That Pro Day really really sucked!"  Why do they leave out the part where he says that this doesn't wipe out what he did throughout his college career, and while it showed some red flags, it's not as important as most people think it is.

He should have wore his gloves.  There ya go.  Wait do you have a rule about quarterbacks not wearing gloves?  If so, nevermind.

Mechanics?  Well his mechanics are just about perfect when he has a clean pocket.  They go to hell when he makes all those great passes while falling down or leaping in the air.  Wow that pinpoint pass 25 yards down the field is deceptive!  I mean look he was kind of falling down and stuff!  Terrible mechanics!

Guess who had mechanics like that, Ray!  Joe Montana!  Joe was about Teddy's current size, while I'm at it.  Sans the ARM, by the way.

Some scout even said he mostly made one or two reads.  What does he see that all the other scouts are missing?  THEY say he's played in a pro system and makes great multiple reads.  I'll go with the consensus here.

SEVENTY PERCENT under pressure, Ray!

You know and I know, the idea that if you draft him high he HAS TO start right away is BS.  You know that Hoyer does not suck.  You know that you can take Teddy high and let the best man win, period.  Anyway, you want your strength coach to build him up and stuff, right?

Grossi has you drafting him at 26.  That's not even a funny joke!  Forget "if he gets past--" because you know damn well somebody will trade UP to beat you to him.

Four is too high?  No it's not.  This is the best quarterback in this draft class.  The most accurate, the best under pressure, the most advanced, and maybe the smartest.  A real pocket passer with abundant experience in a pro system.  Tough as nails, too!

But after his horrible pro day, you might be able to trade down a little and still get him!  The Raiders signed Matt Schaub, and everybody knows that all quarterbacks can play til they're 45 or so now, right?

So anyway, draft Bridgewater.  That's my final decision for now.

I'm hearing this crap from the Alex Mack camp that he wants out.  Have you been hiding a bunch of concussions or something?  If it was Seattle or Frisco or whatever I get that, but he's trying to get out of a very talented team that was undefeated with the incumbant starting quarterback and already got better through free agency.  A team with two first, two third, and two fourth round picks and YOU.

What's with the Jags?  Are they really planning to pay a center top five left tackle money?  I hope you can keep him, but if it just gets into the Revis zone, there are some really good ones in this draft, especially if you can trade down before you grab Teddy.  You can get a starting center and guard too easy.

Okay well I hope you got this.  I'll get back to you on what you should do with the rest of the draft.  Good luck.

A Rare Opportunity of a Draft

If you look at the grades assigned by the NFL's Draft Tracker, they're misleading.  

For example, "OT" Zack Martin has a 5.9 grade, which is on the high side of "Has a chance to become an NFL starter".  That's laughable.  Zack Martin will start at guard somewhere, immediately.  

Clowney is a 7.5, and Watkins is five points below him at 7.0.  

Robinson, Mack, and Matthews are the next three at 6.7.  Barr is 6.6, Mosely 6.5, and Ebron, Benjamin and Bortles are 6.4.

Bortles is the first QB listed.  6.4 is "Should become instant NFL starter".  Bridgewater is a close second with 6.3.  I guess all these scouts and GMs are missing something, since they're saying that Bortles is fairly raw, and Bridgewater is NFL-ready.

Manziel, by the way, is tied with Gabe Jackson at 5.9.

I'll go with Tony Dungee and others, who seem to roughly agree that this draft includes players with first round grades going deep into the second round.  In other words, an average draft will have just about 32 players with first round grades on them.  This one is just overloaded with them.

It doesn't stop there, but there will be players taken in the third round who rate the second, etc.

1: Take your brain out of it's box.  I'll wait...

2: We'll just round the first round GRADED guys down to 45.  (You took your brain out of it's box, right?  Ok stay with me here).

3:  Let's say there are maybe 40 second round GRADED guys, which takes us through 85 players.

We don't need to go lower than that--just remember it.

Now, all we need to do is check out the last few Pro Bowl rosters, and see where players at different positions were drafted.  Most of the quarterbacks were first rounders, of course.  Running backs come from everywhere, including undrafted guys.  Tight ends tend to be first rounders, but there are no few exceptions.  Wide reciever is first round heavy, but significant number of Pro Bowl WR's come from lower rounds.  Left tackles are usually first rounders, but here again, every other offensive line position comes from everywhere, and the pattern is that fourth rounders and above have a decent shot.

Fullbacks and inside linebackers can come from the middle and lower rounds.  3-4 OLB's--I won't belabor it.  I'm basically saying that quarterback is the only position where more than maybe 4 out of five are first rounders.

A good talent evaluator like the guy in Pittsburgh or New England (or hopefully Ray Farmer) can find this kind of talent throughout a draft.  (And he might cut him two or three times along the way, like James Harrison.)

Now, back to the 45 first round graded and 40 second round graded players in this draft (disclaimer: I haven't researched this so I'm probably inaccurate--my POINT is more important).

Say at four Bridgewater, Watkins, one of the two top tackles, Mack, Manziel, and Barr are there (I include Barr because somebody else might want him a lot).  Five of these players address a position of need on the Browns roster, and would make an immediate and significant impact.

To me, this means that you could move down four slots, and still get an impact player at the top if your board (I'm assuming a lot--Ray Farmer will have his own board).  

This is the cream of the draft, and as long as you get one of those players, you have made a significant upgrade.  Now, you have your top-flight future Pro-Bowler in the bank, and you have added another second rounder; another player with first round talent in this draft.

You started out with (in effect stay with me here) three first rounders and now you have four (first round GRADES ok I won't keep repeating that ok?)

Ok now I'll go back to that writer who thought the Browns should consolidate their picks.  The two third rounders could become another second rounder--and in this draft this could be yet a FIFTH first round talent, see?

But that's just one approach.  Because actually in the third round, especially in this draft, you can find starting guards, insurance centers, and even big man cornerbacks.  Maybe the best fullback in the entire draft.

Maybe you could combine the two fourth rounders and get another third rounder with second round talent instead.  This would be quite a haul--essentially four first rounders, two second rounders, and even the low third rounder that came from Indi is almost a second rounder in this draft.  SEVEN players who would come right in and challenge for starting positions.

Then maybe trade the 5th for a '15 4th, etc. to upgrade and get rid of the rest of those picks (oh heaven forfend we have money and don't SPEND it all right away!  Next thing you know, you'll want to INVEST it or something!)

Here's your homework: Try to find seven positions of need on this roster.

Get it?

Thinking Inside the Box

A writer I respect said that he "couldn't believe" that the Browns would actually hitch their wagon to Brian Hoyer, and predicted that Hoyer would lose a training camp battle to any drafted quarterback.

What he's really saying is that if he were the coach, he'd rig the race.

I doubt that Brian offended this guy in any way.  I just think the guy is an in-the-box thinker.  More precisely, he's got Brian Hoyer in a box with a label on it.  The label says "Undrafted free agent, career backup", and this guy just doesn't want to open the box and look inside.

I really try not to keep repeating myself here and being boring, but sometimes I can't help it.  Please stipulate that this offense under Hoyer was much, much better than under Weeden or Campbell, and that Hoyer won both the games he played through.

Does this mean anything to you?  Anything at all?

Did you notice that he started out badly, then suddenly got and remained elite?  I'm tired of hearing about the three interceptions.  They all came early in his first start--might was well have been his first start ever.  And he was lights out after that.

How did he win that first start?  He came from behind.  He couldn't hand off.  He threw.  He carried the team.  During that time, he wasn't a "game manager".  He was a franchise quarterback, in his first start.

Who showed him the ropes?  His initials are Tom Brady.

But it was just two and a quarter games, and you can't go on that?  OK.  Well, I'm not going on that.  I want to give him a fair chance because of that.  My mind is open because he passed that audition.

He's an NFL veteran, and you're telling me that any rookie quarterback in this class will be better than he is right out of the gate.

That's just plain ignorant.

No, Khalil Mack is NOT strictly and edge-rusher, and would not neccessarily replace either Kruger or Mingo if he came here.  Pettine said it himself: He can play anywhere.

He's got the ideal height and size to play inside, and can cover.  He's got great instincts, a nose for the ball, and can fight through traffic.  He's a freaking prototype inside linebacker!

He'd be wasted inside?  Why?  Who told you that inside linebackers aren't allowed to blitze?  Would he get more, or fewer tackles for loss inside instead of out on the edge?  

One guy suggested that they should draft Mack and move Kruger inside.  No, I don't think that's dumb at all because I think Kruger could do that, as long as you don't ask him to drop into coverage.

Only this guy has Kruger in a box just like Hoyer and Mack: Can't rush the passer.

Well, he was among the best in QB hurries.  He was in the QB's face as much as anybody else in the NFL, but just didn't get the sacks.  He was excellent against the run.  

Some said that Kruger was a lot more effective with Terrell Suggs than without him.  Statistically, that's true.

Oh I see!  You've got a Mingo box too!  What's that label read--"Bust"?

What if you're wrong about the Mingo box?  What if by some miracle he returns for his second season a little bigger, stronger, and better?  Stranger things have happened, you know!  Believe it or not, players often improve between their first and second seasons!  No really, I mean it!

So would Kruger be better if this impossible thing happens and Mingo starts generating double-digit sacks?

And I forgot Sheard.  Still really like that guy.  He'd never played OLB himself...by the way I bet HE could play ILB too.

If the Browns draft Khalil Mack, he will most likely start at inside linebacker.  It's just another label anyway, since they won't be in a 3-4 even half the time.  Mostly sub-defenses and sometimes 4-3.  He'll be outside and inside and all over the place.  Don't worry about it.  Just add some more labels to the box you stuffed him in.

Mack near the middle puts his speed near the middle.  It puts him closer to the quarterback and the backfield.  It enables him to penetrate and pursue to both sides.  Every inside run is going to or near him.

Mack inside next to Dansby--his teacher wow--is a major difference-maker against both the pass and the run.  

Ask Pettine: an inside linebacker can get double-digit sacks.  You CAN rush the passer from between the tackles ah!  OH!  You got your 3-4 defense box too!  I get it!  You can only blitze from the outside in a 3-4!

Well, that's crap.  It's been crap for awhile.  Check out Belichick's Superbowl teams and see where the heat came from.  This is the AFC North, and you're still stuck on the old Steeler's 3-4 with Greene and those guys.

Nor has the NFL stagnated.  Today's tackles are quicker, with longer arms.  It takes more time to reach a QB from the edge, and other answers were 3 step drops, the pistol, and quicker throws.  Even the Cameron/Winslow type tight ends were partly a response to that edge-rushing 3-4.

All these innovations, by the way, were brought to you by out-of-the-box thinkers who people like you laughed at.

I'd rather have some guy coming at me from ten yards away and from the side than from three yards away right in my face.  How 'bout you?

It's all moot if they don't draft Khalil Mack, but I'm about up to my hairline with blockheads.  Clean out your attic, or at least update your labels.

Khalil Mack: Cross out "edge" and write "pass" instead.  Hoyer:  Cross out "career backup" and at least draw a question mark dammit.

Mike Pettine seems to agree with me that Roberts doesn't suck, either.  In the cover two, the ILB shouldn't have to man up on skyscrapers as much, and Pettine likes his instincts and speed.

Of course, he'll still look for a guy to replace him with.

Lane Adkins reported that "from what we've been told" the Browns might seek to get five picks in the top 50.  Not really.  That was a column by--maybe it was Nate Ullrich--I can't find it for a proper attiribution.  But this writer suggested that that might be a good idea.  Lane read it and wrote it up.

This writer's idea was that maybe they should turn the two third rounders into a second and the two fourths into a third, along with moving back a little from four and picking up another second rounder.

This is nice out-of-the-box thinking.  This guy sees that this is already a very young team, with a number of recent picks just about due to emerge and blossom.  He doesn't think that adding more quantity in this draft makes as much sense as adding fewer, but better, players.

His logic obviously persuaded Lane, who projected it into the mind of Ray Farmer, and has me thinking hard as well.  In this draft, that could mean five or six new starters!

You can get really good guards, centers, possession recievers, inside linebackers, and safeties in the second and third rounds of any draft.  In this draft, some scouts and analysts have said that a middle second round pick is as good as a first rounder in most drafts!

This is why moving back from four in this one to get another second rounder is like turning three first round picks into four.  Would the two third rounders turn into a second, or yet another first-round graded player?  Would the fourth rounders actually get a second round talent?  Interesting!

In all this talk about the Browns need for a cornerback, I've forgotten Leon McFadden.  Sure, he sucked as a rookie, but he might come back like Buster Skrine did and be pretty good in his second season.  I'm not predicting that he will, just saying that he might, and we shouldn't be in that big a hurry to write him off yet.

More on Chris Faulk, who I think could surprise and take over one of the guard spots.  I didn't know this stuff: He was first a defensive end, and played center in basketball.  His weaknesses were all technique (he was a left tackle).

He was still very raw and inexperienced at the position even before his injury, but guard is different, and the Browns have an excellent line coach.  Even if this guy is still rough around the edges, he may be able to overcome mistakes with his wingspan, size, and feet.

When considering the consolidation of draft picks, Farmer and company will be putting it in context:  Can Gilkey or Faulk fill one of those spots?  Should we stick with Schwartze?  Is Mack gonna burn us no matter what?  
As you know because I've told you, "needs" are often hallucinations in the minds of pundits.  If Farmer thinks that five or six better players will fill all the remaining needs and put the Browns in contention, he should go for it.

Here's a sleeper tight end who tore up the Senior Bowl: Crockett Gilmore.

The scouting report pans him, but that's not what I saw him do against elite competition.  He projects to be a seventh rounder or a priority free agent, but he's a lot better than that.

He needs a lot of work and refinement, and he's not as fast as Cameron, but with some work he can become an excellent conventional tight end who can both block and catch.

Great Week for Intelligent Cleveland Browns Analysis

I usually scour the internet in search of Browns rumors, news, and anaysis and find a whole lot of dumbassitude that I could just as well find in MK Cabbot's "comments" section (which I like to call the "Kangaroo Court").

Speaking if which, here's Mary Kay herself in an article about the Browns going after DeSean Jackson.  I really like Mary Kay.  She keeps her personal opinions to a minimum, and instead quotes and paraphrases those of real experts.

She's more of a pure reporter (or intelligence analyst) than most columnists, as she sticks to facts, and seeks to reveal, rather than to advocate or persuade.

This doesn't stop the Kangaroo Court (who probably just hate a woman reporting on football) from bashing her for restating what other people have said...because they can't tell the difference...because they're mostly semi-literate and stoopid.

Anyway, in this article she does a great job of digging through all the dirt on DeSean and reporting it OBJECTIVELY.  She includes exact quotes from several named sources, including law enforcement, and from Jackson himself for a fair and balanced report.

I have confidence in Ray Farmer and his investigators, and IF IF IF they feel that Jackson is clean enough, I hope they land him.  But the premise of this article is hearsay from unnamed sources, and, like most rumors, could be speculation.

Of course we have to speculate about this 27-year old opposite Josh Gordon...wow.  MK allowed herself to say "unstoppable", and I agree.

But I'm kind of skeptical, because the 49ers are in the bidding war, and he's probably demanding astronomical money ahead of a draft loaded with wide recievers.

In this oldie but goodie by Craig Lyndall of Waiting For Next Year, Craig wonders how the Browns can upgrade their rushing attack.  This was written before the Ben Tate signing, and Tate was of course his top FA option.

What impressed me most about this was his FAIR and thorough treatment of the incumbant running backs on the roster.  While he felt that the top of that depth chart needed new blood, he took the time to point out the real talent of Obgannaya, Owens, Baker etc.

He also pointed out their cheap salaries, showing that he comprehends that this is business.

Branson Wright of the Plain Dealer wrote about Khalil Mack being a potential Browns top draft pick.  I hadn't known that Mike Mayock himself ranks him as one of the top three players in this draft, and would take him over Clowney.

Lately I've been hearing other people knocking him for not doing as well vs. elite competition.  Maybe Mayock should give them a call.  Or Irvin Meyer (coulda fooled him!)

I still feel that with the quarterbacks, tackles, Clowney and Watkins, Mack could still be there after a trade-down--which is one reason why I advocate a trade-down so much.  Watkins will be gone, but there's so many other elite players at positions of need that if it's not Mack, it could be a guard/future left tackle, quarterback, or even just merely Mike Evans.

Tony Grossi thinks that Mack would be "wasted" inside in a 3-4.  He's wrong.  The best 3-4's attack from EVERY angle and don't have to take their safeties or corners out of coverage to do it.  Mack here would move Dansby to the run-and-hit (Roberts) side, where he's at his best.

Bob Evans of Buckeye State Sports writes about how the Browns should draft a center as insurance against the possible departure of Alex Mack.

I really liked this article, as he lists three possible candidates with an eye to the zone-blocking system, and their ability to play guard as well.

I especially like third round projection Travis Swanson (Arkansas), as this guy could come in and immediately compete to start at left or right guard in this offense.  He'd start out above average...at worst.  Instant upgrade along with Mack insurance.  I mean, I'd draft him as a zone guard even if I didn't care about center.

The other guys he mentions, including Lindsey of Ohio State, are projected to go much lower, and are less well prepared for the NFL, but Bob thinks they'd be steals if they go as low as expected.

In general, I've found Buckeye State Sports a really excellent source of Browns news and analysis.  I can't find a dumbass on their staff, which speaks for itself.

Here's another one by Bob on the draftable quarterbacks.  He sees what I saw on Derrick Carr under pressure, and shares my concerns.   But Bob goes deeper than I did, speculating on why this might have happened.

Bob supposes that Carr does well with presnap reads and adjustments, but when he gets unexpected pressure, he might not adjust quickly enough...

Like Teddy Bridgewater does--and Bortles too.  And Murray (yes he included Aaron Murray).

I can tell that Bob Evans is a genius because he agrees with me so much.

Ok go ahead and click the links.