Phil and Chris Simms are giving me some second thoughts about Josh Allen. It's just possible that he is the second-best quarterback in this class!
I tend to take Phil with a grain of salt, because he always loves the guys with the stongest arms most, but Chris backed his father's opinion up with some additional facts.
Naturally, it starts with the near total absence of percentage-inflating screen passes in his offense. (Just repeating what Pappy said here, and it's a valid point).
But Chris comes right out and said that Allen had crappy receivers.
Phil also said that the amazing throws he makes include throwing side-arm while running to his left, and throwing hard and accurately while running in general. (As I have pointed out, this is rare.)
Pat Kirwan points out Allen's one-handed pump-fake. That's significant, since few/rare quarterbacks can safely do it (they kinda "shoulder-fake" with their left hands still on or near the ball to protect it).
Safeties (and the best zone corners) know this, so they don't make their "moves" until that left hand comes away from the ball.
Well, Josh Allen can fake them out, and actually simulate a real throw without losing the ball (massive hands DO help).
Chris also insists that Allen has a high FLOOR, as well as cieling, especially in the AFC North, and he got close to a perfect score in the Wonderlick (much higher than Albert Rosenstein by the way).
Josh Allen turned Wyoming around. The Simms' seem to think that he did an awesome job with the supporting talent he had.
Chris also points out how "level of competition" is damn near irrelevant for quarterbacks. If that's why you think he sucks, you need a brain transplant.
But these two are "football guys", who trust their eyes far more than numbers, and see potential intuitively (don't get me wrong I respect that. They've been there/done that).
But it is a fact that Allen handled blitzes poorly. His "drop-rate" was also low (his receivers might have hurt him by not creating enough separation, but they had pretty good hands).
His ability to throw accurately on the run is (per Phil) rare, but his need to work on his foot-placement means he's not a "natural".
Even the Simms' love Baker Mayfield, however, and Mayfield is the winner of the production, performance, analytics, and win/loss contests by a wide margin.
If Mayfield was one inch taller, he'd have first overall nailed down already.
Mayfield mastered the Oklahoma playbook in two days. The whole team and all the coaches were shocked. He was calling and changing plays like he'd been there for years right out of the gate.
He always makes the right decision. He never had a bad game. He was never the reason his team lost--ever--and was the reason they won most of the time.
As I've blogged before, he could be disruptive.
He would at least be close to Tyrod Taylor on opening day, and based on preseason have a lot of fans thinking he should start already.
I'm serious here: Could Baker Mayfield keep his mouth shut and accept his role--and if so, for how long?
It gets complicated. I can now see Dorsey going with Allen (I mean I would only bash him a little for now, but eagerly await my Mayfield/Allen comparison "I told you so"s in 21-22.)
Dorsey should simply draft the best quarterback, period.
Which quarterback in this draft class, based on performance, is the best? Which is the most obvious leader? Which has never failed? Has been under the lights (and won) the most?
I wish I could trust ex-player Dorsey to ignore everybody else and just pick the best quarterback, but I'm from Cleveland, and well...you know.
I can't wait for the Browns Superbowl (the draft).
Despite the forgoing, I DO trust John Dorsey (at least more than myself) to make the right picks.
Significantly, I'm pretty sure that Dorsey has absolute control.
All this "Hue Jackson offense" crap is idiotic, since Todd Haley has total control of the offense.
Even on NFL Radio, the majority of these guys keep talking about whether or not players fit Hue Jackson's offensive scheme, as if Todd Haley or Hue's public abdication never happened.
In reality, this will be a Todd Haley offense, and he will have more influence in this draft than Hue Fisher will (especially at quarterback).
Most of you people assume that Haley wants another Big Ben, because that's who he inheritted/made the most of in his latest gig, but before that, he was "stuck with" Kurt Warner and Marshall Faulk, and created the "Greatest Show on Turf".
(Somewhere in there he was a Head Coach somewhere I don't recall I'll get back to you on that).
Anyway, let's compare Kurt Warner to Big Ben, and determine Todd Haley's prototype quarterback based on these two which he inheritted/had no choice about:
Obviously, since he had no choice in either case, if you think that either one is Haley's "type", you are an I D I O T (No offense MKC).
Here, Josh Allen is your "AFC North prototype" with crossed fingers and rabbits feet, and Mayfield is Kurt Warner...period.
...well except he's a lot more mobile and has a stronger arm...
Ironically, Warner himself thinks Dorsey will draft Josh Allen (and seems to like him better than Mayfield himself).
...ok, I'm outnumbered by too many ex-quarterbacks here, and Warner's opinion means a lot.
I hereby proclaim Josh Allen the second-best quarterback in this draft class, and will endorse Dorsey if he drafts him...
...or Darnold.
As for the rest of it (and an almost more likely than not) trade-down from 4, I can live with Ward, Fitzpatrick, Paea...
Nevermind I just trust Dorsey not to squander the bounty of draft picks he inheritted from Rodney Brownfield.
By the way, despite his "real football players" idiotic Hue Jackson-defending statement, McCourtey was the only high-profile Sashi guy Dorsey dumped so far DO YOU UNDERSTAND?
Dorsey talks about waking up the "sleeping giant".
There really IS a sleeping giant, and Sashi Brown built it DEAL WIT IT.
I predict a trade-down from four, probably with Buffalo, for a Pro Bowl calibre stud at twelve, a future left tackle, and a King's ransom.
I also think Baker Mayfield just makes too much sense at first overall (make of that what you will, fellow Browns fans).
I've heard from the PFF guys on NFL Radio, and MKC provides some quotes from the writers.
I have to do this again:
"Analytics" is nothing more than thorough, scientific, and unemotional analysis.
In evaluating quarterbacks, their metrics are extremely deep and thorough. A few examples:
Passes are broken down by area of the field targeted, vs what type of coverage, vs the blitze, from the pocket, off play action, off run/pass option, vs higher or lower level competition...I could go on (and on and on and on).
Average time holding the ball. Red zone. Down and distance. Graphs reflecting carreer trends of improvement, stagnation, or regression (well you get it).
While the old school football guys still need to evaluate personality, leadership, dedication, and all the critical unquantifiables, the analytical guys are MUCH, MUCH more reliable than these guys for evaluating on-the-field stuff.
This is because they cannot/don't evaluate films with preconceptions. They simply evaluate each play per very specific and stringent criteriae (and if they don't, I presume they get demoted or fired).
They don't "take notes", but enter data (ie:
Down, distance, leading or trailing, quarter, zone of field, type of coverage, from pocket, shotgun, pistol or--well you get it---because if you don't, I'd be happy to keep going? I thought not.)
It's got to be very tedious for these guys...they probably spend like 10 minutes per play, freezing and rewinding several times---just for the quarterback.
This process is quite familiar to me: This raw data is kicked upstairs, where it's fitted together with broader data (like level of competition, and perhaps weather conditions or whatever), and then just added up.
These people really don't care who they're studying, and they apply most of the exact methodology that the best scouts use (except more comprehensively and more in-depth; leaving nothing out).
The traditional scout can not spend 10 minutes per play to enter all this massive data on every play of every game, even on just the 12 or 15 teams he's assigned to.
He picks out prominant games (vs better teams, in a Bowl game, first and last games, etc) and takes a bunch of notes.
Most of them do great jobs, but they neccessarily miss a lot of stuff, and their "notes" are often tainted by prejudice or fatigue, or other wild variables--however hard they try to override it.
They resent having to waste time on THIS guy, or are excited about this other guy.
This happens a lot in the intelligence community (and got really out of hand in the mid-nineties). Operatives and analysts telling bosses what they wanted to hear because they didn't want to get FIRED, or wanted to get promoted).
A whole LOT of good guys were tortured and murdered, and several battles were lost because of this but I digress (dammit):
Anyway, PFF, Numberfire, and the other guys are incorruptable. Think "Mister Spock" (with access to all available data).
PFF says that Baker Mayfield is by far the best quarterback in this class. He beats the rest of them in damn near every single major, minor, and micro-rating, usually by a wide margin.
The numbers don't lie. His detractors point to the simplicity of his offensive scheme, and the fact that 20% of his passes were screens (ie long handoffs, generally behind the line of scrimmage--it really inflates completion percentages).
Well, I point right back at Mayfield's amazing E L E V E N yards per-attempt: that means that on the other 80% of his passes, he averaged something like TWELVE POINT FOUR yards per-attempt!!!
And don't even think about it: He completed something like 62-63% of his DEEP passes (more than Allen btw obviously).
The PFF Writers did express some personal opinions. They all agreed that Mayfield was also the best quarterback at throwing pinpoint "stick"- passes vs tight coverage, especially in the red zone and on third down...and vs the blitze, of course.
Baker Mayfield is obviously head and shoulders better than the rest of these guys, and if PFF compared him to Watson, Goff, or Wentz entering their own drafts, he'd beat them too.
So what's the problem (aside from his vertical challenge)?
For one thing, some General Managers "can't stand the kid" (I do trust Brad Hopkins on this).
- Well, I can't really go to war against these guys with my analytics, because there are legitimate concerns over his unquantifiables (you know: maturity, personality, emotional discipline, etc? I left "leadership" out on purpose, because even the football guys who hate him can't deny it...except Bill Polian might)
I get it. Will this kid start "Twitter wars" with inflammatory statements? When things go bad and he starts taking heat, can he keep his mouth shut? Can he resist taunting after he sticks it to somebody? Will his "fiery competitor" kind of leadership fly with a veteran locker room? Will he accept collecting splinters as a rookie/will he start "politicking"?
All of these concerns are legit.
A lot of us like that Baker is brutally blunt and honest, including saying "that's not me" when asked how he'd feel about backing up as a rookie.
The unnamed GMs who "can't stand the kid" may have been inarticulate, but if they're really letting their emotions influence their decisions, they're going to get themselves fired.
For John Dorsey (who genuinely likes "the kid" just fine), the potential problems Mayfield might cause can't be ignored.
I believe that Dorsey's other best option is Sam Darnold (and PFF cuncurs).
Darnold isn't the fiery "in your face" leader that Mayfield is, but he is a leader. He has a lot less experience, and a lot more mechanical flaws, but he's bigger, stronger, and reasonably accurate (especially on the run).
His fumbling issues are easily fixed. He just needs to stop waving the ball around in one hand as he scrambles.
Jim Miller will tell you, he does this instinctively, to help his balance as he tries to change directions. In the NFL, he'll keep both hands on the ball until he throws, because he's not going to evade these passrushers anyway.
The picks are a separate issue, but part of it was situational. His judgement is indeed questionable (compared to Rosen or MAYFIELD), but when the chips are down, Darnold accepts the burden, and at least tries to pull it out.
Buzzkill Bill (Polian) likes this, and (more importantly) the fact that after a turnover, he comes right back as aggressive as he was before (he can't be intimidated).
I could accept Sam Darnold over Baker Mayfield if John Dorsey makes that choice. As I've said, this is kinda like Big Ben vs Aaron Rodgers.
But Josh Allen!?! No! No! Noooooo!!!
J fkng C this is why analytics beats "foodball guyzz" all the time!
Didn't I already tell you that Mayfield was better than him on deep passes?
Jeez I'm hearing guys say Allen has the strongest arm by a "wide margin", but in reality that "wide margin" is 5 yards or 3-5 mph! Gimme a break these clowns sound like it's Allen vs three Cody Kesslers!!!
Brad Hopkins: I'm confiscating the phrase "wide margin" from you until you prove that you can use it responsibly.
I'm not a "Premium Subscriber" to Numberfire or PFF, but I'd love to see Darnold's deep ACCURACY vs Allen's too. I'll bet Darnold wins that one!
I'll bet Rosen has Allen beat on his home turf too. If he didn't have a glass jaw, and wasn't a pinko, and didn't have dedication/commitment questions, and wasn't the least athletic, and didn't have teammates (btw not "third party" people) calling him "aloof", I'd rate Rosen a close second to Mayfield; he's real good!
But ALLEN!?!
To me, the Branch Allenians are all insane. But unlike Albert Einsten, I define insanity as not thinking with your brain:
Allen looks real purty, and has an awesome arm. He runs like a deer (so purty!) He's made such amazing throws (got to watch those over and over again wow).
Comparing Allen to Big Ben is obcene, but does help my segue here:
Darnold is comparatively not nearly as pretty as he runs around. He looks like a clod. Like CARSON WENTZ. And in a different way so does Big Ben.
Josh Allen is the clear winner of this beauty contest.
FORTUNATELY, PFF, Numberfire and I don't care about how purty you look! We ONLY care about what you accomplish!
This is important: Ben Roethsenberger (sp?) has been a top five quarterback for a long time. His stats compare well to Brady, Brees, Rodgers etc. But he gets dissed because he is built funny and looks like a clod.
(Stifle yourself, G. Love thine enemy).
The biggest reasons why Josh Allen is the consensus first overall pick are, in order:
1: Strongest arm.
2: Prototypical stature.
3: Second best-looking behind Mayfield.
4: Prettiest running around.
5: Real smart/great guy (I like him better as a person than the rest myself. Darnold second. Rosen last).
NONE of this matters! It's all irrevelant!
All that matters is performance DO YOU UNDERSTAND? This aint fkng beauty contest!
I can deal with Darnold, if not Mayfield, but if Dorsey picks Allen...
...well I'll try to figure out the "why" of it, as I know my limitations vs John Dorsey. But I preserve the right to go apeshit on him a couple years down the road.
...and will immediately bash Dorsey before I try to figure out why, and find reasons for optimism, and rationalize a lot...
Okay I admit that I'm not 100% objective. I am optimistic by nature.
But this is John Dorsey (not to mention the rest of this crew including Todd Haley), and (with Hue Fisher's voice obviously muffled), if they draft Josh Allen first overall (or fourth, for that matter), I can't go against them.
I can say, right now, that Baker Mayfield is irrefutably the best quarterback in this draft class, Sam Darnold is second, Allen is a huge projection...
Well there it is. Politics aside, Baker Mayfield is the best quarterback in this draft class, period. Darnold has the potential to possibly eventually become almost as good maybe.
Rosen might be awesome...but might as well be out of the NFL in a couple years.
Allen could be great, but probably not like Mayfield. Frankly, Darnold looks better than he does, and if not for his concussions, Rosen is better than Allen as well.
...Except Allen has huge hands, and has played in adverse conditions, so forget all the foregoing...
Allen is just so charming, with that "boy next door" appeal, and that prototyical stature and grace. AND the strongest arm I mean what could go wrong?
Forget I said anything. Allen is the obvious choice!
Chuh!
Happily, John Dorsey wants to keep his job, and no doubt ignores Mel Kiper...
At least we hope so.
"The Browns could draft two quarterbacks." This is quite possible, but the second one would come in the second round or lower.
Peter King must read my Blog too, as he makes a good case for this: Backup quarterbacks increase in value, even as they sit on the bench.
I'm also almost positive that Lord Insideous was forced to trade Jimmy Garopollo instead of Gramps Brady.
Speaking of the Sith Lord, Brinson thinks outside the box (like Bill does) in his latest mock draft:
He has the Pats trading numbers 23 and 30 in 2018 and their first round pick in 2019 for number four (and drafting Darnold).
There are a bunch of problems with this:
1: It presumes that the Browns won't draft Darnold first overall. Like the rest of the flock, Brinson expects Dorsey to draft Josh Allen (because...you know, he's a Brown now, so he just lost about thirty IQ points right?)
2: That's not Bill. Bill is one of those rare individuals who really can find good quarterbacks lower, and then develop them.
Tom Brady may indeed go down as the best quarterback in history, but a big part of that was the system he started in, and the offensive and defensive talent Bill surrounded him with.
Brady did spend time on the bench, until Drew Bledoe's horrific injury, so he wasn't learning "on the job", like every quarterback the Browns have drafted was forced to.
While Brady did a great job right out of the gate, he was not yet what he eventually evolved into. When Bledsoe returned to health, a lot of "experts" assumed that he would be the starter again.
Instead, Bill traded Bledsoe to the Division Rival New York Jets (for everything but their first born children). People called him an idiot. "He's a sixth round pick! He could still fall on his face!" etc etc blah blah.
Brinson is even more off the mark in this particular quarterback draft class, in which most mocks have Lamar Jackson falling into the twenties or lower, Mason Rudolph would go much higher in 2017 or 2019, and there are three more guys with all the traits (Kyle Lauletta/Luke Falk/Mike White) that Bill could adopt as a young apprentice.
Lord Insideous doesn't listen to hyperbole, and cares more about a quarterback's floor than he does his cieling. He has to be laughing (or maybe crying) at all this Branch Allenian bleating...but I digress:
The much much more realistic trade partner for 4th overall is the Bills. I'm ignoring all your "noooo" screams, because I've dug deeper into what they could get (instead of Barkley or Chubb):
I looked over mocks by Birkett, Iver, Reuter, and Brinson, plus the latest Mayock position-rankings I could find. (I can't get to Kiper's mock without signing up for something, and I'm not sure Mayock even does mock drafts).
Based on these four mock drafts, here are players who could be available from 11 to (around) 16 (note: I screened a little--the Browns don't need everything, obviously):
Rosen was there quite a bit, and Lamar Jackson on all four, just as a side-note.
Darius Guice is always there. Denzel Ward is there on three, and Minkah Fitzpatrick on two. McGlinchey is a constant (would be a mistake IMO). Vea (the freak ginormous consensus-best by a wide margin defensive tackle) is a constant.
Kolton Miller. Calvin Ridley. Rashaun Evans (he's an inside linebacker but very impressive, especially in coverage).
Alexander (Mayock's second-ranked corner behind Ward) is universally there.
Mayock ranks wide receiver DJ Moore ahead of Ridley, and he's there on all of them.
Baker Mayfield is there at 12 in one of these mocks!!!
Mayfield aside, would any of these guys make as big an impact as Chubb or Barkley?
I can't say "of course not", because Minkah Fitzpatrick could!
Others are close: Vea is a monster! I'd be sad to see Jamie Meder go, but binniss is binniss, and the best defensive tackle crew in the NFL is about as good as the best edge-combo, if you comprehend actual football.
But we're not talking about just that guy. We're talking about that guy we get at 22 as well, as only part of this trade:
At 22, DE Marcus Davenport, Mayock's (and everybody else's) second-best edge-rusher, is there on all four. Kolton Miller, Guice, CB Jaire Alexander (Mayock's third-ranked corner), are all generally still there, and LEFT tackle Conner Williams is there in all four mocks.
Sliders include Ridley, McGlinchey, and (oh yeah) Lamar Jackson.
I know most of you have your own favorites, and that's okay with me: Pick one from column A and one from column B, and compare these TWO players to Chubb or Barkley, ok?
And THINK!!! What if one of these two is Lamar Jackson?
Try and stay with me here -snap-snap-:
That's not the whole trade yet, see? Dorsey should probably get the third rounder they gave up for Tyrod back, or else the Bills' second rounder in 2019 (I'd bet on the latter).
Notes on Mayock's rankings:
I'm not certain about this, but I think Mayock leans towards immediate impact/proficiency over upside, and for offensive tackles doesn't separate left from right.
Nothing wrong with that.
He ranks the offensive tackles McGlinchey first, Kolton Miller second, Conner Williams third, and this Crosby guy fourth.
McGlinchey is the most experienced and refined (along with being a human bulldozer); Mayock expects him to start immediately (at right tackle).
Take this part of his rankings with a grain of salt: Miller and Williams are much better athletes, with higher upsides. Rodney Okorafor is a factor here. I'm not sure why Mayock prefers the other...
Oh I GET it now! It's the same thing as Baker Mayfield!
Mike played Pro football! He leans hard on psychology! (Again: nothing wrong with that).
He downgrades Baker Mayfield because he questions his emotional maturity. I believe he's downgrading Okorafor here for his lack of "nastiness"!
I admit that I haven't seen as much of Okorafor as Mike has, but clearly a lot of smart people agree with him, because analytically-speaking, this guy is terrific.
Mayock has been there/done that, and (with the exception of Ryan Leaf) I can't go toe-to-toe with these guys and declare them boobs...
...But I've been around some too---just in general:
I think that Mike is too pessimistic about Mayfield, who is still emerging from his punkdom, and has proven his adaptability. He is unlikely to keep grabbing his crotch and flipping people off in the NFL.
As for Okorafor, I think Mike is focussing too much on temperament, and not enough on skill. A left tackle is not a guard, and his first and foremost job is protecting the quarterback.
Joe Thomas was never especially "nasty". He was just a superior/smart athlete who could stifle the best edge-rushers in the NFL.
If you want to say he was "nasty", you're really talking about his ability to run around in space and smash linebackers and safeties into the turf. Thomas mostly broke even with edge-rushers (ie WON), see?
Conner Williams has a similar critique on him, but Mayock ranks him third behind McGlinchey and Miller.
Miller is 6'9" and a former tight end as well...I guess Mayock has to give upside it's props where the "immediate starter" pickings are slim.
I personally prefer Williams because he is shorter, with a lower center of balance. (As a defensive back, Mike doesn't grok LEVERAGE as well as, say, Ross Tucker).
But I digress:
I don't think McGlinchey is in the plans here, but Miller and Williams are. McGlinchey may never play left tackle in the NFL. And Dorsey needs a LEFT tackle, now or in 2019.
Ok back to quarterback:
I think Dorsey was about as clear as he could be about what he wants in a quarterback (but before I start this, remember he said all four of the top quarterbacks had big enough hands? I do! He said so! Honest!)
1: He has to be accurate. Baker Mayfield is the most accurate.
2: (Dorsey was inarticulate here but I'll translate): When the chips are down late in the game, when you need to rifle it into a tight window, you can.
Chris Pokorney, being PC, shifted off Mayfield for an obligatory nod to Rosen here, and shame on him: Nah that's still Mayfield. Rosen is a close second, but Mayfield is still the sharpshooter here.
3: He has to have a strong arm. Okay, Allen has the strongest arm, but:
Do any of these guys not have a strong arm? For that matter, Mayfield appears to have the second-strongest!
4: He has to be a leader (partial translation elevate the play of the guys around him):
Mayfield again.
And I believe John Dorsey was being honest! He just knew that everybody listening would interpret whatever he said however they wanted to, and delare Allen confirmed, or shift to Darnold, or Rosen---whatever.
His criterae also exactly matched Hue Jackson's (except for the end-of-game tight window hitting part)...
You GET this, right? It's not about long bombs for Dorsey or me.
Why does nobody else get this? Niether Manning is a long bomber! Rodgers isn't. Brady/Brees aren't! Even Matt Flynn is no Dan Pastorini. Big Ben kinda is, but has come to rely heavily on Bell and Brown to take short passes long why are we talking about JOSH ALLEN here killll meeee.....
Ohmmm...ohmmm.....okbye
I found some more intelligent life in Cleveland! Joel W Cade kinda takes Bucky Brooks behind the woodshed for his "confirmation bias".
Bucky says Dorsey likes big, strong-armed quarterbacks. I've already said "you mean like Alex Smith and Tyrod Taylor?", but Joel tosses in a few more.
Every quarterback Dorsey has participated in acquiring has been accurate. So I don't need any bias: Dorsey likes accurate quarterbacks!
But Joel also talks about "old school" vs analytics, and shares my fear that Dorsey might indeed ignore a bunch of red flags and draft Allen because he "looks the part".
As Joel and I point out, analytics was developed to minimize subjectivity (read: confirmation bias).
All these "old school guys" have become Branch Allenians, and need to be kidnapped and deprogrammed. They're ignoring a whole bunch of historical data and alarm bells going off, just as they can't seem to remember the bad passes or bad games (100% vs top level competition).
No! All they remember seeing are those beautiful, arcing long bombs.
Now, Paul DePodesta is trying desperately to get out of the basement in Berea to reach Dorsey with his intelligence analyses.
However, as Joel himself points out, it's very possible that John Dorsey does not, in fact, agree with Mel Kiper about Josh Allen.
And Bucky Brooks talking about "potential" over production needs to think again---you can't do that with quarterbacks! More accurately, not with top ten (let alone top one) draft picks.
See my last post: Some guys are incapable of processing quickly enough, ever! (Why does MKC keep talking about Allen's great "processing speed"? Does she think he proved that on a white board or what come on man!)
You can't project things like that for a first overall quarterback! Dorsey can't play craps with this pick are you kidding me?
What tf is the upside? He eventually becomes slightly better than some of the other guys!? He eventually completes over 59% of his passes?
Knock-knock anybody home? Know why these rumors have traction? Ask Jeremiah--because they're the BROWNS!
HE says it's a dumb pick, but just expects Dorsey to do it! And the Browns still haven't fixed the technical glitch that keeps me from emailing or texting Dorsey! DePodesta might be our only hope!
Actually, I do think that Bucky and a lot of these guys are off the mark. Their "analysis" of Dorsey's "tastes" and inclinations is extremely superficial and subjective. I still can't believe Mayock said he'd draft Allen this year because he drafted Mahomes last year...I mean just wow!
A couple of the mocks have the Browns trading down from four calm down for three firsts and a third from Buffalo at twelve. I said three firsts and a third didn't you hear me?
One of them has Denzel Ward down there for them, and he might be! But the other has them drafting an outside linebacker who can passrush...eventually.
Brilliant! Hell why not Paea? I mean I know they don't need a DT, but that guy is pretty special!
Then at 22 they get a left tackle in one draft (except the wrong one).
The goober who picks Ward at four over Barkley and Fitzpatrick is sticking to his guns. It's just sad.
The majority seem to have the Giants standing pat and drafting Chubb. A couple have them picking a quarterback second overall, and a couple more have them trading down.
I have no idea. They're kind of in between, because they can contend right now but also need Eli junior and more talent in general. But I do know that if they stand pat Barkley has as good a shot as Chubb does...and a quarterback has a shot too (throw a dart blindfolded ok?)
I want 3:1 on this but I'll say they trade the pick and stockpile (and a quarterback goes second overall).
If I'm right, Bradley and Chubb are both there at four (along with Fitzpatrick), and one top four quarterback.
On this planet, Denzel Ward is one tier below the aforementioned three players, but for my purposes here, we'll lump him in:
If the Giants trade down, and/or quarterbacks are drafted one through three, any trade-down by Dorsey means a quarterback at four, and all four of these position players still there.
Now, Lamar Jackson will go in the top ten as well (you'll have to trust me on this one).
This literally means that Dorsey could trade down as low as 9th and still get one of these players for sure.
The math is the math, and the Bills' 12th overall pick is three slots lower.
If you'd stop spazzing out for a moment, I would point out to you that
A: Dorsey could trade UP, using a LOWER second round pick (and some chump-change, or Jamar Taylor or something) to get to 8 or 9 and guarantee one of these guys.
B: ...you aint ready for this, but deal with it: He could just draft Paea or Guice or Ridley (assuming Ward isn't there...which he might be).
C: He could trade down again to lock up a third 2019 first round pick, and...
If you are into reality, you know that the Browns will win at least six (more likely 7-9) games in 2018 with the players they already have. They will ideally have their quarterback situation resolved...assuming it's not Allen...
The Browns are not, and can not, be ready to overcome the Steelers in 2018. This is about 2019 AND BEYOND DO YOU UNDERSTAND?
...well...I can see the other side of this argument too: Barkley or Chubb could be huge, and maybe I'm overly negative about the Steelers' awesomeness...
Still, the better you do, the lower you draft.
For this team, at this time, is a Chubb or Barkley worth more than a bunch of extra high draft picks in 2018 and 2019?
Maybe not, since:
1: This draft class is jam-packed with stud running backs, and nearly as deep at cornerback, and also at project left tackles (not bad at defensive tackle either...a bunch of big/tall possession receivers too)
2: The 2019 draft class will be different, and the stars could align...get it?
Ok but if he just takes Chubb or Barkley instead I'll force myself to deal with it somehow -sigh-. I just hate leaving money on the table.
I analytically prefer Chubb, because we can still get an almost-Barkley later...no almost-Chubbs in this draft. But if Chubb aint there, I -sigh- could settle for Barkley...
Last call okbye
Great article by Doug Lesmerisis on how the Browns have a great shot at "getting it right" at quarterback this time.
He points out that the Browns haven't "missed" in the past, because the only quarterback they picked in the top ten was Tim Couch. They picked a couple in the twenties, then in the second round on down (where the failure rate is much, much higher).
Because the success rate is very high for those picked in the top ten.
Doug also cites PFF grades, and they stubbornly insist on calling this the best quarterback class since 2004, with all of the top four earning ratings over 90.
Doug says maybe they can't miss!
This flies in the face of conventional "wisdom", which persists in predicting that for each success, there is a failure (in the top five).
Until this article, I myself was mindlessly parroting this stuff, but it actually hasn't been true for some time:
There was Mariota and Winston. Goff and Wentz. And as Doug also points out, the only real busts have been Jamarcus Russell and (I forget who). (Remember, we're talking top TEN here, okay? Not top twenty three?)
I can back Doug up here:
Rules changes and changes in NFL offenses (notably run/pass options), have helped young quarterbacks succeed earlier than they did five or so years ago.
Our old freind Rob Chudzinski never gets the credit he deserves, because when Carolina drafted Cam Newton first overall, he brought the read-option to the NFL in a huge way to help Cam get off to a good start.
Chud's bold, gutsy move changed the NFL big-time. And that is one Head Coach that Haslam probably should not have fired.
This helped DeShaun Watson hit the ground running as a rookie.
Ironically, Hue Jackson, the "innovator", stayed in the cave (if not the tree) with Kizer last season, just like Chris Palmer did with Tim Couch (the poor doomed shoulda-been superstar dammit).
Oh yes: Lesmerisis doesn't skip over that part: The coaches need to help, and a good supporting cast is always desirable.
I don't need to bring Haley and the talent here up again, do I? That part is covered (except maybe left tackle...it will be downgraded from Big Joe, but how much and for how long remains to be seen).
Doug shares my fear of Josh Allen, but unlike me, he defers to the real experts, and verily there are a bunch of GMs, former GMs, ex-quarterbacks and coaches etc who love Allen a lot.
Doug is where I was a few years ago, keeping his ego in check, and assuming the real pros know better than he does.
I'm different now, because I've been right more often than they have been for the last few years.
I hated the Kizer pick. I loved Carson Wentz (but still defend that trade-down). I couldn't understand the Watson-bashing, and loved Mahomes too. When Goff had a tough time (under Jeff Fisher as a rookie), I laughed at people who called him a bust.
I was right, and a bunch of them were wrong, repeatedly. So I will say what Doug won't: Josh Allen has the second-most bust-potential of any quarterback in this class.
Rosen is on top due to his shoulder surgery and concussions (not to mention personality, questionable commitment, and lack of athleticism).
Allen has thrown snake-eyes vs elite competition all five times he's faced it (hat tip to Pat Kirwan). His completion percentage stagnated, while Matt Stafford's inproved throughout his college career (Stafford is the one in ten exception the Branch Allenians cite as proof that Allen can be more accurate in the NFL).
Hype aside, accuracy (and I mean ball-placement and touch accuracy), and anticipation are FAR, FAR more important in the NFL than size, arm strength, or even athleticism. And that's a fact. It's not debatable.
To be fair, I do remember that strong-arm maniac Phil Simms pointed out that (unlike all the other guys), Allen threw only 14 screen passes in 2017, which certainly suppressed his completion percentage.
Also, Jim Miller's telling us that at the Senior Bowl, he was only inaccurate throwing to his left, and saying it was footwork, and correctable...
Well okay I never said Allen would be a bust. I just said that Baker Mayfield is (and will REMAIN) better (already the most accurate, best touch and anticipation, great leadership skills, delivers in the crunch vs top competition, about as good as Allen on the white board -note to Mary Kay this has nothing to do with "processing speed", and Mayfield is the fastest "processor" in this class by a mile too!!!)
And by the way, that can't be taught. It has nothing to do with intelligence. Like speed or agility, you are just born with it...you know, like ACCURACY?
Like accuracy, practice and repetition can enhance it somewhat, but...
Okay look at minor and major league pitchers: They all have to be accurate first and formost. This is critical for one-trick pony flamethrowers, but if that's all they can do, they never reach the Bigs.
They need to be accurate with much slower change-ups, curve balls, etc as well. A whole bunch of guys crap out because they can't hit what they aim at with these more difficult pitches.
If your brain is "wired" right, you figure it out. You don't think about it. Your accuracy is built in, so you just shift your aiming point a little, and the ball goes more or less where you want it to go.
If you lack that hard wiring, you can't do it before your arm falls off.
"Processing speed" applies to boxing.
MKC and others are clueless about what that means. In the NFL, it's can you get to your third read (and throw the damn ball instantly) before a safe falls on you.
For a boxer, if you curl up in a ball and can't figure out where the other guy should be with your eyeballs bouncing around (like they do a lot)...
Well that's hard to describe, but if you "process" quickly, you move where you should, and punch where you should, until things get clear again, and you can get more aggressive...
Well I kinda missed again. I inadverdantly spoke up for Mayfield again (and also Sam Darnold). It's not really "processing speed", because it's largely instinctive.
...Like a running back who just "has a nose" for daylight. These guys break out of a dogpile, running for their lives, looking for targets, you see?
The "check-down" stuff is shot to hell, except they have an idea where to look for help. And they throw the damn ball the instant they see it---as they are running.
"Poor mechanics at times. Throws off back foot."
My experience gives me more insight than a lot of real experts. I won't elaborate, but I know more about instincts and improvising than they do, and evidently have a better idea of how often that matters for NFL quarterbacks.
Look at your "prototypes":
Dan Marino was awesome. No knock on him. But he never won a Superbowl.
Ditto Jim Kelly. And Drew Bledsoe.
Superbowl winners include Aaron Rodgers, Joe Montana, and Drew Brees.
Tom Brady and Matt Ryan aside, most Superbowl winners are guys who came though in the Chinese fire drill.
And that's what matters most, you see? It's not about arm-strength, height, general intelligence, good looks, likeability, charm, or any of that crap.
It's not about how good you are when things go right. It's about how good you are when things go wrong.
It's also about inspirational (not to mention automatic "it's on me" leadership (obviously ignored by the experts, let alone PFF---although PFF is off the hook; you simply can't quantify that).
Baker Mayfield is the best quarterback in this class, and Sam Darnold the second best. Three seasons from now, I'll remind you I said this.
If Dorsey is dumb enough to draft Josh Allen instead, it might work out, kinda.
Given a year on the bench, an impressive set of weapons, and a really good defense, he could be really impressive...
At least until he meets really scary defenses in the playoffs, and has to come from behind...but what do I know?
Okay but Lesmerisis is correct: Even Josh Allen should be pretty good here! Maybe like Matt Ryan good even!
That's not Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees good or anything, but it doesn't suck, so...
Like I said: Three years from now, you won't remember that I told you that Mayfield and Darnold are both better than Allen, but I will remind you.
And if Dorsey picks Allen over either of these guys nine days from now, I'll be bashing him for it...
Nah not really: Dorsey has earned his creds, and I know my limitations. He could still be smarter than me. But I WILL remind you that IMO he screwed up and took the third-best quarterback in this draft.
Three years from now, Mayfield will be the best of these quarterbacks.
Doug Lesmerisis is right (except I think he likes Darnold over Mayfield), but that's close enough.
Tyrod Taylor is being dismissed here, probably prematurely. In one of my most recent posts, I said that he should be extended, right now, at 24 mil/year (guaranteed portion front-loaded) for as long a term as possible.
Tyrod Taylor is highly underrated. He is more than a "bridge" quarterback for a team with a strong supporting cast. Tyrod could become a "franchise" quarterback with this team..immediately.
The goobers who think that using both one and four on quarterbacks is a good idea need a brain transplant.
There is an issue with Baker Mayfield here:
Baker could stomach one year on the bench, but that's about it.
I grok Baker: He knows he's the real deal, and has proven it. He's spent time on the bench (due to NCAA rules) and watched an inferior quarterback lose when he could have won.
He has kicked ass at every level. He has never had a bad game. He is used to his whole team (offense and defense) counting on him. He KNOWS how good he is!
And he IS that good!
Look: Mayfield is likely to outperform Taylor in camp and in preseason. Tyrod isn't as accurate or decisive as Mayfield is.
Baker will feel as if he's earned starting status out of the gate. He intellectually understands that he isn't the athlete that Taylor is, and can't yet read defenses like he does, but in his heart, he already feels that he could do better.
Maybe he's right. But for Dorsey and the coaches, Mayfield's hyper-competitive, impatient attitude could become a problem (especially if he starts going public with it).
Darnold won't do this (nor would Allen, for that matter).
But dammit, do you want the best quarterback, or the more compliant one?
IMO, Dorsey should draft the best quarterback, period.
Last call okbye
Hello again. This just in from Peter King on Josh Allen vs pressure.
Peter thinks he can be taught to handle it better. Nobody seems to get this!
