I have to break my rule and include a link to this terrible article by Josh Edwards.
Josh is usually pretty good, but here and there he writes a real clunker. I'll simply itemize the corrections here. I guess you shouldn't bother with the link and skip the huge swings and misses:
1: The "initial report" that the Browns were looking to trade Duke came from either me or somebody like me as a guess/hypothesis, and not from the team.
I became a "source close to the team" blahblah for their convenience.
2: The dead cap hit is irrelevant. Why does nobody get this? The money comes off the 2019 cap, and that's it! As long as you can afford the one-time hit, 2020 is a reset.
3: If you comprehend this, and understand that Duke's trade value will decline over time, you see that an early trade is more likely.
4: This didn't start with the Kareem Hunt signing. It started as of Game 1 in 2018.
We can understand why Duke was limited to third and longs after Nick Chubb took over, but the same was true behind Carlos Hyde.
After a terrific 2017 and a nice raise and extention, Duke fell off the map! I expected him to be frustrated and dissatisfied.
Again, Freddie can repeat that "we have a plan for Duke" all he wants, but Duke knows that this means he's the third and long running back, and he'll mostly pass-protect even then.
Even before 2018, Jarvis Landry was brought in, and Callaway was drafted--that was pretty much that for Duke lining up in the slot or wide.
5: Dontrell Hilliard is "unproven", but he's a R U N N I N G. B A C K. Most college running backs need a lot of work on pass-protection, and to varying degrees on receiving skills, but the running part is either there or is not.
This is why so many of them become insta-stars as rookies. Josh clearly doesn't get this: The Browns already know exactly who Hilliard is, and what he can do.
I do have to repeat here that Baker Mayfield was a butthead for picking on Duke at all.
I'm sick of all this "sensitivity training" bullcrap, but would make an exception in Baker's case. Can't Mister first overall pick walk a few feet in Duke's shoes?
Duke is watching his carreer go down the drain, and is trying to salvage what's left of it. How can anyone blame him?
Joe Gilbert is close to Jake Burns as one of my favorite "go-to" X/O//Film Room/Analytics analysts, but I had a few minor issues with his ranking of the Browns' position groups for 2019:
First, he only has 3 tiers: Top, Middle, and Lowest. If you put that in the context of the 32 NFL teams, each tier represents almost 11 teams. That's way too general!
Joe has the Quarterbacks, Running Backs, Wide Receivers, and edge defenders in the top tier, then ranks the cornerbacks in the middle tier.
I can't fathom this, even if Joe means near the top of that 11-team middle tier of his.
I couldn't see his rationale in what he wrote, either, as Joe gave Denzel his props and went on to say that he and Greedy Williams could be "one of" the best Corner tandems in the NFL.
But then, Joe refers to Terrence Mitchell and TJ Carrie as "really good backups".
No, Joe, Terrence Mitchell was a really good STARTER. I'm sure that Joe would have to rank Terrence among the top 21 starting cornerbacks in 2018; ergo top tier.
Joe mentions that Carrie is the nickel, but that's all. How good is he, Joe? Well, I'm guessing he's above average...do a film room on him, ok?
Gilbert even includes Whitehead and Murray as situational corners.
This is obviously a top 11 group of cornerbacks, Joe. What were you thinking?
You're welcome.
Next in Joe's middle tier is the interior Offensive Line. Well, Bitonio and Tretter are elite, but I guess with the question marks at Right Guard it's hard to guesstimate.
...Still...Tretter/Bitinio/X not in the top 11? Wouldn't the Right Guard have to suck really bad? Kalis, Kush, and Witzman are at least mediocre, so...well, Joe?
Safeties in the middle 11 too...tough one here. Randall is the only proven stud, but he is obviously in the top 11 himself...Burnett as a Strong Safety with Green Bay was kinda average...nah here we go again Joe: Burnett+Randall=top 11 why are you doing this? Math wasn't your best subject, was it?
Linebackers? I guess so. Too many variables here. Shobert made the Pro Bowl but led in missed tackles, Kirksey is one of PFF's worst, ditto Taylor, Wilson and Takitaki are new, and Genard Avery is with the edge guys for the moment.
Joe was brutal with the Tight Ends. He's the first guy I've heard say that Demetrius Harris had "very" questionable hands, describe what DeValve has done as "small hints of his talent, but little or no consistency so far".
Ok first Njoku IS easily a top 11 Tight End. DeValve IS consistent when he's on the field. Orson Charles SUCKED as a run-blocker per PFF...
Jeez Joe lists Harris as Njoku's top backup!
Well no, Joe, Demetrius Harris won't line up outside and run WR routes. That's DeValve. While Dorsey has challenged Njoku to become a better in-line blocker, and given the addition of OBJ and emergence of Callaway, he'll need to, but:
Freddie Kitchens won't be deleting his multi-Tight End groups just because Todd Monken is here now, and DeValve is unmistakeably Njoku's backup...
I thought Joe was a film-room guy like Jake Burns! Well, anybody can have a bad day.
Joe ranks Special Teams in the middle 11, and once again, I think he's lowballing:
Jake isn't sold on Joseph, and nervous about Seibert as well. Fair enough, but he discounts the fact that Preifer will have access to the whole roster, and several free agents and rookies with outstanding Special Teams ability were brought in; there should be at least a 5-man dedicated full-time "core" playing on every unit.
I really like this "Scottish Hammer" Hulk punter and don't see why Joseph should go off the rails after how he performed ever since his first disasterous game in 2018...
That's not top 11? ELEVEN TEAMS will have better Special Teams than the Browns, Joe, really?
OMFG Joe ranks the Defensive Tackles in the lowest tier!!! He really loves Ogunjobi and Richardson, but thinks everybody behind them sucks.
Here I think Joe is giving the backups the DeValve treatment. He mentions the probability that some of the Defensive Ends can play inside situationally, but only dismissively.
Well, I want to see Chad Thomas 2.0 here first. Seems like Joe has pre-deleted him, but Chad came out as a DT/DE hybrid at 6'5", 281 lbs.
Given the writing on the Browns "edge" wall for Chad, he should be returning bigger and stronger this season; he was never going to start for this team, so he has to be a utility guy.
As a DT, he's a penetrator, and he has length and range.
Joe is even selling the other backup DTs short here...but even if he's right in jiggling the handle on the lot of them, with Ogunjobi and Richardson, how does he rank the Browns' DTs in the bottom 11!?!
Joe ranks Offensive Tackle in the bottom 11. I agree.
I've been telling you all along that the extra Tight Ends, Mayfield, and Kitchens made Robinson and Hubbard look better than they were.
Joe is right that this is THE position most in need of an upgrade on this team.
Anyway, I would simply grade each position group on the 2019 Browns in roughly 6 "tiers", from top 5 to bottom 5 vs other NFL teams.
QB: Top 10. Baker Mayfield is already arguably top 5, but depth is questionable.
RB: Top 5.
WR: Top 5.
TE: Top 10: Njoku is obviously in the top 6-9 now, Demetrius Harris is a top-flight blocker, and DeValve...well I can't fathom his dissage...seriously wow...
Interior Offensive Line: Top 10 easily. Tretter and Bitionio are top 5ers. Those 2 and a guy named Joe default into the top 10 DUH.
Offensive Tackle: 4th tier (20-25). I think I might have Joeitis here, because I think Robinson and Hubbard are about average, but I gotta honor the Analytics sites. Anyway there's your bone, permabashers.
DT: Top 10. The starters speak for themselves, but I also think the backups are functional in specific situational roles, and Wilks will be more inclined to field 3 (or fewer) down linemen in some situations than Gregg Williams was *note Gregg is gone, people*
Edge: Top 5. Avery behind Vernon and Garrett, with Takitaki behind them I mean duh.
Linebackers: Top 15: I want to go higher, but expect Schobert to get traded, Takitaki still needs to prove it, as does Wilson, and Christian Kirksey is massively overrated.
Then there's the Wilks factor: Mack Wilson covers like a safety, and Wilks might use him in his hybrid role...lots of variables here, but I see Takitaki as a legit linebacker and a really good one.
Cornerbacks: Top 5. OBVIOUSLY.
Safeties (assuming Damarius Randall isn't traded) top 10. That's obvious too.
Special Teams: Top 10: DUH.
Yeah, that Offensive Tackle position has to be a priority. Maybe DePodesta Dorsey can get one for Schobert or Randall or Duke.
Obviously, a smart coach and quick/mobile Quarterback can "mask" deficiencies (see many earlier posts), but when a Quarterback can't stand 7 yards deep on third and a mile, advantage: Defense.
In conclusion, I think Josh Edwards had a bad day, and will write fewer and fewer idiotic articles as he goes along.
But I'm compelled to demote Joe Gilbert as a source, and can't use him "as-is" anymore.
When you yourself can discredit a source without cross-checking or further research, that's bad.
Nick Dudukovich restored my faith in intelligent life in Cleveland with his 3 Browns "unappreciated players".
Joe Schobert was Nick's first, and I can't disagree (even though I think Dorsey should trade him).
But Tretter and Rodney Mitchellfield? CHECK!!!
Nick don't need no steenking Film Room to know what he's talking about!
Okbye
Players in the last year of their contracts present Paul DePpdesta John Dorsey with some challenges as (remember) you can't fill up every Brinks truck.
The "expiring" starters include Offensive Linemen Greg Robinson and JC Tretter, then defenders Joe Schobert and Damarius Randall.
The probable reason that Randall and the team aren't talking is either that the Browns and Randall are too far apart--or Randall has refused to talk, and intends to test the market first.
I won't repeat what I said about the Browns seeing what kind of value they can get for Schobert and Randall (as well as Duke), as a linebacker paid in the top 6 and a Free Safety maybe paid more than any other is not in the budget for 2020.
Greg Robinson will, if he's merely average, command a salary all out of proportion to his real value, and is as good as gone.
Tretter looks like a priority. He came to the Browns as a pretty good center, but now he's one of the best in football, with plenty of tread left on his tires.
He should command top 4 center money, but that's not a bank-breaker, and if Robinson leaves, those savings would largely offset it.
Having lost first Joe Thomas and then Kevin Zeitler, DePodesta Dorsey can't keep letting these guys go, and Center is a critical position.
Higgins and Hunt are by far the most interesting "other" players (although Special Teams ace Murray should be affordable).
Higgins has 3 WRs ahead of him, and Freddie likes to use extra Tight Ends and Running Backs, so he's not going to "prove" too much in 2019. He should be a highly affordable replacement for Jarvis Landry, who will probably be released after 2019.
Redundancy Alert: Hunt will probably do enough to break the bank (leave) in 2020, but look for DePodesta Dorsey to try to re-sign him longer term, even for a ton of money.
There are a lot of moving parts here:
First, don't kid yourself: Hunt and his people would understand that he would probably be traded less than 2 years after signing his new contract.
Second, with Nick Chubb on the same team, he would at best be part of a committee, and not the bellcow.
On the one hand, this suppresses his stats. On the other hand, he can win more, and preserve his body. Most young guys want to be top dawg and get what they can asap.
Worst case: Kareem Hunt makes a difference in 2019. Maybe they win one more regular season game, and/or one more playoff game...Chubb stays fresher, Freddie can run a super-2-back...
Then Hunt hits the dusty trail.
Nevermind the other guys listed, and I need to mention this: Orson Charles is being overhyped by local reporters. He's a very good pass-protector, but sucks at everything else. Ranting over his run-blocking prowess is downright idiotic; PFF grades him at 44.something!
Seth DeValve ranks ahead of Charles overall and in every other category except pass-protection (Saint Charles has him by three points there).
See why you can't trust anybody else? These goobers have Seth DeValve "on the bubble" due to Orson Charles' great lead-blocking!!!
Wow.
Speaking of PFF, Dan Justik tells us that Nick Chubb was 2nd in the NFL against stacked boxes in 2018.
In fairness, Jordon Howard led the NFL with an 83 rating. Chubb was next with 78.9, but Saquon Barkley tied him, and 5 others were very close, so we need to keep this in context.
But as Dan points out, it's hard to imagine Nick Chubb facing too many stacked boxes in 2019 anyway, with OBJ, Njoku, Callaway etc at Baker Mayfield's fingertips.
Naturally, it's not that simple, however:
While Todd Monken (and Baker Mayfield) are Air-Raid guys, Freddie Kitchens has NOT handed Monken the keys, and should still run his "big" fronts which will sometimes force stacked boxes.
...you see opposing Defenses will want to run at least nickel defenses no matter what, when they see 3 tight ends, one of which is a primary in-line blocker, and only 1 true WR, with 1 (big powerful) Running Back, they have to go "big" and load the box.
Freddie does this on purpose, because modern Defensive rosters are built to stop 3-wides with hybrid pass-catching Tight Ends (all the "rage" ya no?)
In 2018, Freddie "muscled up" a lot to get those little fast guys off the field, and...well you saw what happened:
Mayfield had more time. Zone-blocking worked (with Chubb threading needles like a human pinball, and big fast athletes (like DeValve) blocking way downfield.
...sorry anyway Freddie forced (obsolete) 3-4 and 4-3 Defenses onto the field, and got that 5th Defensive Back off.
Freddie Kitchens exploited the elephant-in-the-room fact that in 2019 the nickel is everybody's real base defense.
Modern defenses are prioritizing linebackers who can cover over run-stuffers, passrushing DTs over run-stuffers, and looking for Strong Safeties who can play linebacker.
I will probably get more detailed later about this, but will tell you now that Freddie Kitchens is massively more insideously diabolical than you think he is.
Laugh at me now but I laughed at you first but believe me later and remember you heard it here first:
Freddie Kitchens, accent and all, is a genius. I'm tempted to compare him to Lord Insideous, in fact.
I also expect Kitchens and MAYFIELD duh to manage the "egos" here---what a joke give me a break...okbye
I can't find any new news on the Browns, and nobody except mindless permabashers have said anything idiotic about the team.
It's very cool that Baker Mayfield has collected Higgins, Landry, and OBJ in Cali (with their new playbook) to practice on their own.
Antonio Callaway had a death in his family, but should join them there soon.
These are the top four wide receivers, and they'll get a real jump start on Training Camp. Mayfield already knows everybody except OBJ, but Callaway was a work in progress in 2018, and is no doubt refining his routes.
No doubt, this goes beyond the timing routes. I can almost guarantee you that Mayfield is taking this opportunity to tell these guys how they can best help him when he scrambles (left, right, shallow, back, etc).
As I mentioned, unlike many other Quarterbacks, Mayfield tries to exploit broken plays to make big plays (instead of dump it off).
I wonder what's up with Ratley and the other wide-outs. There's like 8 guys fighting for maybe 2 roster spots...if I were one of them, being in Cali with Mayfield would be a no-brainer.
Possibly it's "by invitation" and Baker wants to focus on these top 4 guys for practical reasons.
Speaking of Damion Ratley, I'm trying to find a way to bet on him to make the final roster.
This guy averaged over 23 YPC in his final college season, and tested off the charts. He's a home-run hitter with elite speed and good length.
As I've said, he was a bit of a beanpole (6'1" and change, 190 lbs) when drafted, but Hans and Franz have had nearly 2 years to pump him up since then.
He was also almost as much of a raw project as Antonio Callaway, but there again, has now had NFL coaching for about that long.
Other WRs like Willies and Strong have proven they belong, and no doubt have nice upsides. I'm certainly not counting any of those guys out. But none of them have Ratley's explosiveness or speed.
I also bet Austin Corbett will win the Right Guard Derby.
Incredibly, when Corbett failed to immediately start at Left Tackle, then to beat out Tretter or Zeitler, some permabashers were already calling Corbett a "bust".
This irrational perception "clung" to this second round pick, and when Corbett wasn't the first team Right Guard in the 1 in 5 sessions open to the public, Chicken Little came out of the woodwork.
Revisionist history aside, most of the shock about Dorsey drafting Corbett atop the second round was local. The guys on NFL Radio had some mixed feelings about fit or need, but almost universally agreed that he rated being drafted there.
Once again, he took over for Joel Bitonio in college, and pretty much mirrored Joel's own college carreer. He is comparable to Bitonio physically as well.
Why on Earth do so many of you think Corbett 2.0 can't play Right Guard?
And I repeat again: Switching from the left to the right side is like a right-handed hitter learning to bat left-handed. Bitonio got to remain left of center. His own transition was comparatively easy.
The Browns' Quarterback room behind Mayfield has been badly analyzed:
Once again, MKC and most of you people need to stop envisioning Drew Stanton holding a 3' tall Baker Mayfield's hand on a beach somewhere, and fkng delete "mentor" from your vocabulary (and by the way grow tf up).
I'm so SICK of this!!! Mayfield started a ton of games (including playoff games) at the highest level in college, and was the most pro-ready QB to come along in awhile.
Mary Kay what's this Stanton "did a great job of mentoring" Baker Mayfield? Objection! Assuming facts not in evidence! (-Bang-sustained!)
No! The ONLY question about Drew Stanton as a number 2 is can he win games?
Well, he has won, but he still sucks. His teams won in spite of him (sorry Drew but it is what it is).
Drew might be a good mentor for Garrett Gilbert or David Blough...either of which might well be the real number two Quarterback instead of him.
I can't find the excellent article anymore, but somebody went in-depth into the Ravens running game (including Lamar Jackson).
The upgraded Ravens Offense will unquestionably be dangerous in 2019, mainly because of Jackson...mainly as a runner.
I don't think even Micheal Vick was a match for this guy as a runner. He has great instincts to go with his speed and suddeness.
Defenses have to passrush in (predictable) "lanes" to keep him inside...then he'll fake a handoff to Ingram (who you HAVE to take seriously) and take it himself one gap over.
It's a different version of the Little Dutch Boy offense. While this quarterback isn't very accurate, he is competent and has a great arm. If you stack the box, he can launch one on you.
But also, even knowing that the Ravens offense will run 60+% of the time, you can't predict who will run it.
Freddie Kitchens might even have stolen some concepts from the Ravens, as they use 2 and 3 Tight Ends, and multiple running backs a lot too.
I'm not sure yet about how I will advise Steve Wilks to attack the Ravens offense (I mean once their IT people get around to clearing up my communications issues with them).
I'm sure that "attack" is the key word, however; ie try to eliminate any intermediate or long pass entirely through pressure on Jackson; a 5 or even 6-man rush, with both extra guys coming between the tackles ("run-blitzes") so they have a chance to blow up a handoff or catch Jackson trying to get cute.
Lamar Jackson is a lethal runner from anywhere on the field, but isn't like Mayfield (as a passer) without his feet planted. If he's chased to his right or left, he's looking to run or get "bailed out".
Harbaugh and co are doing an awesome job of maxing out what they have on offense, and it's so different that they should win a lot of games again (dammit).
Fortunately, the 2019 Browns can neutralize both outside receivers, insure that Jackson never has time, and SCORE POINTS on their depleted Defense, so...
Compare the 2 rosters to the 2018 versions.
The Ravens needed a huge assist by the referees to negate a TD on a fumble-return to win in the season finale, and the great linebacker who in...
Nevermind. You'll see. Okbye.
Mary Kay Cabbott and Dan Justik expect Paul DePodesta John Dorsey to do "everything they can" to hold onto Jarvis Landry beyond 2019.
Like many, they point out the annual increases in the salary cap, and refer to nebulous possible restructures.
Well, the rising caps are increasing the eventual demands of Mayfield, Garrett, etc., plus rendering any restructures less likely. They also increase the "caps" of the players we're trying to keep.
Jarvis might actually restructure to help out, but most likely he won't, and he is overpaid.
Holding onto him to keep the LSU "brothers" together would feel good, and help keep OBJ on an even keel. Jarvis has indeed become a leader, and has to be the most reliable receiver in the NFL.
But those who say "wow they're worrying about Garrett and Mayfield already?" probably believe in Santa Claus.
No, Virginia: Paul DePepodesta John Dorsey is already getting backed into that corner. It's not JUST Myles Garrett or Baker Mayfield. The two of them could combine for a SIXTY MILLION DOLLAR cap hit DO YOU UNDERSTAND!?! It's too early to plan for that...really?
Then there's Denzel Ward...and Greedy Williams at the SAME TIME AS Mayfield!
As it stands, it's probably impossible to avoid losing at least one or two of these guys, so just pick the one you want to see walking away for zero compensation in 2022.
Better yet: Which one of these players should go instead of Jarvis Landry? Which is Landry more important than?
That's really simplified, as other guys like Ogunjobi, Tretter, Njoku, will also be backing up their Brinks trucks within this window. Which of these guys matters less to the Browns than Juice Landry?
Sure, in 2019 Landry is important, but in 2020 10 mil more in cap space will look a lot purtier!
By the way, Landry or Damarius Randall? Hmm?
Redundancy alert: Like Schobert and Duke, Randall is highly markettable before the 2019 season, and draft picks are how you keep your cap low and sustain success over time.
I love all these guys (and Jarvis Landry too), but DePodesta Dorsey has to think with DePodesta's brain.
More repetition: Randall might just be THE best Free Safety in the NFL, and unless he gets hurt or something in 2019 he's going to be asking to be the highest paid at his position in the NFL.
Kiss him good bye. Oh, shut up! You can't pay EVERYBODY, Virginia!
But we need Randall for the Superbowl push in 2019? Yes, but not as much as a lot of you think! The Browns are now 3-deep in top-notch cover corners for the 2 outside receivers, and are stocked with nickels as well.
The Free Safety's role (and importance) is less critical for the 2019 Steve Wilks Browns, so a Whitehead, or conceivably a Redwine or one of the sleepers I've listed could step in and do an "above average" job.
Yeah I know I'm a cold-blooded extremist miserly bastard (thank you -blush-blush-)
Here's the deal (again):
Option A: Ride 2019 out with Randall, and possibly win one extra game.
Option B: Trade Randall for either another Defensive Tackle or: a 2020 3rd round pick or 2021 second round pick (or of course multiple lower picks).
What? Of course he's worth a first round pick, but whoever trades for him inherits the same contract situation which compelled the Browns to trade him in the first place!
Listen, Virginia: This is capitalism. Trade. Unless one side is dumb, BOTH sides benefit from the exchange. You get that?
The Browns get something they wouldn't have otherwise, and the other team gets an awesome plug-and-play free safety who they immediately extend (so they get ahead of inflation and the havoc he'll wreak in 2019).
It's tough for most of you whippersnappers to comprehend, I know, because you've been indoctrinated instead of educated, but that's really how this works, and what made the US the greatest nation in history.
I'm glad I won't live to see you turn it into Venezuela.
But I digress:
Trading Duke wouldn't help the cap in 2019 but who cares--it would in 2020 and beyond. And turn a 3rd wheel into a productive asset in 2020 and/or beyond.
Trading Randall would turn an unavoidable loss/void after 2019 into an asset or assets in 2020 and/or beyond.
Schobert is similar to Randall.
You get this, kids? Randall, Schobert, etc make gobs of money and...you're not listening, are you? What about all those poor democratic voters "undocumented" people and stuff, right?
Pinheads.
But I digress again:
I'm sure that Baker Mayfield and company aren't worried about the other teams in the AFC North not being worried about the 2019 Browns.
The concerns over Freddie Kitchens' "inexperience" and managing all the "big egos" on the 2019 Browns are kinda funny, but what's funnier is these writers constantly citing ancient history:
The Browns have sucked in the Division since whenever, their last playoff appearance was whenever...
That's all irrelevant crap. 2018 matters.
What Mayfield and Kitchens did matters a ton more than even the first half of 2018.
Freddie, Baker, Myles, Nick etc don't care about this meaningless trivia, nor should you.
This is relevant: Garrett and Ogunjobi competing in the weight room, racking up amazing numbers.
See how competition makes everybody better, kids? And these 2 are freinds! No Participation Trophies! Myles lost this round, and isn't retreating to his "safe place"! Is any of this sinking in on Independance Day?
Oh and both of them no doubt had ancestors that were slaves! Oh crap "we still have a long way to go" do you ever even listen to yourselves?
Hey kids, you know that the Nazis came to power behind the "Brownshirts" who crashed and broke up opposing political rallies, burned down publishers who opposed them, etc? Like ANTIFA?
"Anti-fascist" oh, the ignorance...
Sorry but it's the 4th. PS the Brownshirts became the SS. They were fascists. Anybody home?
Gurzi names 3 players who should have "more freedom" in Rashard Higgins, Myles Garrett, and Baker Mayfield.
Higgins was kind of a toss-in. Randy just thinks he should play more. That's a tough one, as he's nose-to-nose with Antonio Callaway, who is a home-run hitter.
But Garrett and Mayfield? Hell yes! Garrett was inexplicably limited to only 2 passrush moves by Gregg Williams!!!
I can't wait to see what this very intelligent young man comes up with in 2019--with Olivier Vernon as his bookend! FREEEEDOMMMM!
Randy assumes somewhat with Mayfield, as I think that Freddie Kitchens already trusts him and gives him discretion to change plays at the line. But Randy is right that Baker Mayfield reads defenses as well as anybody.
I am SOOOO glad they fired Mywayorthehighway Haley along with Hue Jackson! Compare Mayfield's pre-Kitchens stats to his post-Haley stats! 'Nuff said!
I need to self-correct my last post: In checking out the depth EDGE guys, I left out Sione Takitaki, who actually was a Defensive End until his final college season.
It gets confusing, as Sione worked with the linebackers so far, while Genard Avery worked with the DEs.
Sione is another guy who could play OLB in a 3-4. Avery is a more impressive physical specimen, but apparently Takitaki has better instincts.
As an edge-rusher in the NFL, Takitaki probably can't be as good as Avery, but shouldn't suck, either.
Happy Indepenence Day Comrades. Okbye.
No I'm back, thanks to Thomas Moore, who thinks that Odell Beckham Jr has a chance to be THE best Wide Receiver in the NFL in 2019.
Honestly, I only skimmed this article, but might as well have ignored it:
Baker Mayfield is a better Quarterback than Eli Manning even before we get to arm-strength.
Thomas got into specific routes which OBJ excelled as a Giant, but (I believe) asserted that Baker Mayfield and his stronger arm will open up the "upper branches" of Beckham's route-tree.
I agree with Tom mostly, except that Baker Mayfield will NOT favor him over anybody else.
No matter: Thomas Moore just kinda repeated a post I entered a couple weeks ago:
OBJ with Mayfield and the Browns probably won't catch more passes than he has per-season, but should average more Yards-per-catch, as he'll be running deeper patterns, and will be the primary deep threat.
Indeed, Baker Mayfield will always look deep first, and Beckham will usually be that guy more often than not.
Beckham might very well lead the NFL in Yards Per-Catch, and rank in the top 5 in TDs, but probably catches less than 76 passes, but might get over 1400 yards...
Who cares? Answer: GMs, Agents, and Players.
Anyhow it's Independance Day, so please honor competition, freedom, free enterprise, and COMMON SENSE.
It's not fair that the Patriots win so much! We have to FIX this!
Right?
On NFL Radio, former star Offensive Lineman David Diehl was asked by a Browns' fan how good he thought the Browns current front 4 would be, how teams will try to stop him, and who was the scariest edge-rusher he had faced in his carreer.
Last one first: Diehl named Andre Ware, who was literally the only edge-rusher his crew had to change their whole scheme for, down-after down.
Ok: Diehl said that's as good a starting front 4 as there is in the NFL. He said that both Vernon and Garrett can use power as well as speed, and attack from anywhere.
Diehl is a lot more familiar with Vernon, and shed more light on him for me. Per David, Vernon:
Is more a power than speed guy. The best thing he does is "flatten out" his edge-rush, ie he won't overrun the quarterback.
He "knows excactly when to anchor and push the blocker into the Quarterback's lap".
I can unpack that: Vernon is more quick than fast, has leverage as a short guy, with extra-long arms. A lot of edge-rushers can try to "bend the edge" and try to sneak around behind an offensive tackle, but those who can also stop on a dime and get by him underneath are far less common.
Diehl described in Olivier Vernon a guy who can drive a 320 lb guy into the pocket; who doesn't need to "shake him loose".
He's not literally overpowering a guy that outweighs him by 50 lbs, of course. But the bigger, slower guy is at a big disadvantage without his feet planted, and especially when trying to stop dead himself.
Like Myles Garrett, Vernon only needs his outside shoulder inside the tackle's inside shoulder, and he's doomed. Most other edge-rushers have to shake the big guy loose, and can't actually go through him, see?
Deihl says Vernon's ability to screw up Offensive Tackles like this should chase Quarterbacks right into Garrett's arms, but points out that both Garrett and Vernon have been dinged up, and will need to stay healthy this time.
I'll get back to Diehl, but need to insert this:
Diehl isn't considering second-year edge-rusher Genard Avery.
I have compared Avery to James Harrison, but he fits here in some ways:
He lacks Vernon's overall length, even excuding Vernon's wingspan...but he has even better leverage, and is stronger, faster, and quicker than Vernon...
...I was about to say "and Garrett" too, but just can't lean on workout numbers anymore with Garrett...
Anyway I herebye predict that Genard Avery will "spell" Garrett and Vernon situationally, and back them up in general.
Back to Diehl, who said the only way to attack this front 4 is to RUN at them. Keep them on their heels, make them struggle to disengage and chase, and wear them down.
He's RIGHT!!! That's exactly how opposing offenses will try to beat this awesome Browns' front 4! Grind them down!
Without a doubt, Steve Wilks saw this writing on his wall long before I did (err...just now), so the Browns will be working hard on tackling...
This is extremely deep and I will get back to you on it after I figure it out myself, but returning to the shallower end I have good news for you:
1: Not every Offense can just decide to run the ball and pull it off, especially when a Defense is expecting it.
2: The 2019 Browns Offense WILL be in the top 8 in scoring, and should be in the top 5.
Baker Mayfield and Freddie Kitchens are here now, so get over the obligitory first, second, and third possession, rays of hope and fizzles every game.
You get that Mayfield was THE deadliest QB in the Red Zone as a rookie, right? You saw Nick Chubb's audition?
Nevermind you get the idea: in most games, the 2019 Browns will establish an early lead, or at least keep it close.
...this is a little out of the shallow end here, but you can stick with me:
The 2019 Browns will feature a dominating running game of their own, which itself will get stronger as opposing defenses wear down.
OBJ grabbed headlines, as so did Todd Monken, but that didn't change Freddie Kitchens, you people:
Freddie did "strange" stuff, once he was in charge, but stayed ahead of all the DCs opposing him throughout his stint as OC.
Kitchens was sneaky and unpredictable. I believe he had a plan all along--just in case--and was READY (within Haley's playbook) for becoming the Browns OC.
But I digress: Anyway, Freddie Kitchens is unlikely to abandon 2-3 Tight End or 2-Back sets, or the run, simply because OBJ is here now.
Freddie used up his preplanned bag of tricks in 2018, but he's not done yet. No doubt he loves Todd Haley for giving him his shot, but Freddie is just getting started here...and Todd Haley was a massively-overrated blockhead who lucked out with Antonio Brown, Big Ben, Ebineezer Bell, and maybe the best Offensive Line in the NFL.
But I digress again: I believe Freddie Kitchens is a genius with an accent (and of course Mywayorthehighway Haley turned out to be a massively overrated boob).
That's informative, by the way: Big Ben and co did what they did in SPITE of Mywayorthehighway rather than because of him!
Haley was fired by the Steelers after Big Ben explained to reporters that he wasn't allowed to do QB sneaks by Mywayorthehighway...a playoff loss...and an obvious question.
Skipping the Permabashers' predictable response, Freddie Kitchens is a brain and has proven it, under duress!
I get the Stockholm Syndrome negativity, but Hue, Todd, and the other guys aren't here any more, but Baker, Odell, Nick, Myles, Olivier, Greedy, Denzel, etc are.
...Oh I forgot BAKER (not that he matters or anything)
I'll get back to all of this later. Permabashers should go into hiding.
Okbye
Jake Burns did another enlightning Film Room session on Nick Chubb's "jump-cuts".
These are pretty common, but some guys do it better than others. Jake didn't describe it well enough, though:
As the runner approaches potential tacklers, he sort of "floats" for one step; he is neccessarily "upright". The defender(s) can't tell which way he'll go, until he bends his legs to one side or the other and hunches down again.
It's not a stop-and-start, as he retains much of his momentum, only redirecting it; ideally at a shallow angle so that he can retain his speed.
Jake caught Chubb doing 2 jump-cuts in a row to kind of zing-zag through a severe traffic jam.
Jump cuts are instinctive and natural for most running backs, but like I said some are better at them than others.
The best ones get close enough to the defenders to threaten them frontally, but just far enough away to keep their cut-angle shallow and pass them at or near full speed (a big powerful guy--like Chubb--can ignore arm-tackles and cut it much closer).
Until I saw Jake's film analysis, I hadn't realized how often Nick used this particular move, or how good he was at it. That guy is just born to carry a football.
I might as well stick with Nick Chubb here, even though this is redundant:
He's one of the reasons why Duke Johnson was so underused in 2018, even after Kitchens took over the offense.
Duke was in on third and longs, but there weren't as many of those with the offense clicking like it did. And when he was in there, he often found himself in pass-protection (which he's become very good at...unfortunately for him).
Mayfield needed time more than an outlet receiver, and defenses sent more people at him inside.
...but I digress: Nick Chubb was a very reliable receiver already (well--out of the backfield. Not like Duke, who can line up anywhere and run WR routes).
Freddie was running 2 and 3 Tight End offenses a lot, and some of the 2-backs included a fullback instead of Duke as well.
You just can't put a Nick Chubb on the bench in favor of a Duke Johnson.
Some people think Kareem Hunt is better than Nick Chubb. I don't. Nick is a year behind Hunt developmentally, and their respective rookie campaigns were comparable.
Hunt is so far a more dangerous receiver, but Nick will refine those skills too.
I'll say this again: Paul Depodesta John Dorsey needs to ask Freddie Kitchens to use Hunt gradually and sparingly in 2019 (until the playoffs, anyway) so that he has a chance to sign Hunt to a not-too-rediculous contract extention...and then trade him.
What would Belichick do in this situation, with this roster?
Well, Damarius Randall looms largest short-term, and it looks like he's planning to "ball out" and back up his Brinks truck in 2019.
That's a non-starter for the Browns. They can't afford the money he will command. So put him on the block now.
They probably can, since they've loaded up on safeties capable of handling the deep middle in a Wilks defense.
Schobert too. Yep. Sorry!
Sorry to bumb you out, but this is how the Patriots and Eagles won Superbowls, and how every perennial contender manages to stay near the top.
The Steelers are one of those teams (sorry again).
They held the line with Ebineezer Bell, and were nearly as good without him. They at least got something back for Antonio Brown, and dumped his salary too.
Ebineezer and Antonio are exceptional players who have 2 things in common:
Big Ben and the Steelers Offensive Line.
Niether of these players will be as successful with their new teams as they were with the Steelers.
Meanwhile, those pundits who think the Steelers are diminished after this offseason are very wrong.
Devin Bush is a huge upgrade on Defense, Antonio Brown disappeared every time Big Ben was injured, and they signed Mark Barron too. They'll be tougher in coverage (especially vs large people), faster in general, and...
Well just know that the Steelers will be a major PIA in 2019, with close to the Browns' overall talent.
So sorry. But the Ravens ARE diminished...sorta. Well they're even more loaded at RB and now have some good WRs, but you don't lose 3 starting linebackers and shrug that off.
I get the optimism around Lamar Jackson entering year 2, but don't think Harbaugh's master plan will work out as well as he hopes:
1: His defense will NOT be as dominating as it was in 2018, and he needed that to pull off his cave man Offense last season. The 2019 Ravens are NOT built to come from behind, and will NOT score a lot of points, so...
2: Unlike Baker Mayfield, Lamar Jackson is a physical freak who will never be in Mayfield's zip code as a passer, and who has clear exploitable weaknesses and tendancies.
3: He's not a big guy.
4: Both the Steelers and Bengals are more talented than the 2019 Ravens.
Any Ravens fans here? SORRY!
Dan Justik thinks the Browns should kick the tires on Safety Jalen Thompson in the supplemental draft.
...maybe. If he's there in the 4th round. I mean, since we're looking at possibly trading Damarius Randall....
