Many fans are uninterested in John Dorsey's recent signings of free agent offensive linemen Eric Kush and Kendall Lamm, but they're actually very important.
Kush is the inside utility guy who will replace new starter Austin Corbett on the depth chart, and Kendall Lamm will challenge incumbent Right Tackle Chris Hubbard directly.
Both Kush and Lamm have considerable experience as starters (*in KC and Houston--two prolific offenses*).
I looked these two (and Hubbard) up on PFF, and was kind of shocked at the clear pattern I found: All three are well above average (above 72) in pass protection, and below average (mid to high 40's) as run-blockers.
This is analytics too. Run-blocking is easy for offensive linemen. Pass protection is not. There are tons of great run-blocking offensive linemen, but not many who excel in pass-protection.
DePodesta and/or Dorsey have found a niche to exploit (Dorsey might have been doing it before coming here--I don't know):
Kush and Lamm were available and cheap partly because they're mediocre run-blockers, but in a passing league, pass protection is more important...right?
I'm not sure how the PFF and Numberfire geeks grade run-blocking, either. I do know that they have their work cut out for them; it's really impossible to "turn into numbers", and I take it with a grain of salt my own self.
No--stay with me here: How do you grade run-blocking? Measuring how far you push a guy back isn't valid for a zone scheme. Counting how many times the last guy you blocked made a tackle might work, except that if that tackle is 5 yards downfield, well?
Pass protection grades are pretty reliable, and these guys know who to "blame" for what (ie the ignorant masses blame the tackle when the guard fails to pick up the guy the tackle releases, but they blame the guard, for example).
In 2018, every Browns' starting offensive lineman was better in pass protection than as run blockers, but the various running backs averaged (at least) 4.8 YPC on runs.
...anyway delete Offensive Line off your "needs" list (and ignore the Memorex Morons).
The MM's are also telling you about an urgent need at OLB, but if you read this Blog, you are aware that Rodney Averyfield is already here, and that Dorsey just signed another (cheaper) Chris Kirksey who can match his mediocrity...
Sorry I went off on a tangent there, but Dorsey will look to upgrade WIL first, and has Kirksey on the block as we speak.
Okay so now we know that Kareem Hunt will be available as of game nine.
Those of you who read this Blog know that MKC and company are fulla beans as to how this effects Duke Johnson's trade status.
Even Waitingtilnextyear texted that this means Dorsey will keep Duke til after then.
Nah! Everybody is dismissing 2018 UDFA Rodney Hilliardfield, who can do most of what Duke does already.
Also, in 2018 when Kitchens took over the offense, he used Duke even less than Dorsey had.
Also, the addition of OBJ puts Landry back in the slot more, and (trust me) Nick Chubb will go to the slot in his second season as well.
Duke is on the block NOW, but Dorsey will not be screwed, and will roll with Duke if nobody pays up for him.
Ditto Ogbah: You think John Dorsey wants to get rid of Ogbah now? Why?
Ogbah played hurt, and often inside last season under Gregg Williams, who (*pay careful attention here:) is a different Defensive Coordinator.
Ogbah is dirt-cheap, too, so why on Earth would John Dorsey be aggressively trying to get rid of him? OR DUKE?
I have to show you this in defense of OBJ the human being. It's mostly a human interest piece, but it describes a guy with a good heart.
My readers get this: I called OBJ an immature clown and stuff, but never called him an asshole.
OBJ comes to a more stable situation here in Cleveland, where he
1: Rejoins his best freind in college, Jarvis Landry.
2: Along with Landry, reunites with their position coach in college: Adam Henry
3: Baker Mayfield was an OBJ lobbyist himself, and went out of his way to meet OBJ in the offseason in person.
3a: Mayfield is an "Alpha Dog". He won't tolerate a Diva, and the coaches have his back.
4: Freddie Kitchens turned out to be an Alpha Dog himself.
I'm almost positive that OBJ won't be a (big) problem, or be (too) disruptive/distracting.
And while most of the pundits (and you people) have been mindlessly chanting for a a Gordon/Moss/Green/Jones can't-miss skyscraper (official "X"), I've been telling you that the better quarterbacks don't need guys like that.
I'm all-in with OBJ for what Dorsey paid for him. Baker Mayfield has Eli Manning's arm, is more accurate, and can run around and throw off-platform (on the run--to his left or his right).
Kitchens/Monken don't lean on any individual skill player in the first place, and Baker Mayield is like Rodgers, Wilson, Kurt Warner, Joe Montana, Marino, and (sadly) Big Ben.
The really elite quarterbacks will never lean on any given receiver. They universally hit whoever is open, deepest, and asap.
Baker Mayfield IS an elite NFL QB already...and now he gets OBJ!?!
We're talking "Greatest Show on Turf" stuff in 2019 here!
...not exactly: This offense features more "smashmouth", but you can see the writing on this wall...right?
Like most of you, I'm stunned that the Browns are now the consensus favorites to win the AFC North in 2019.
USA Today documents the amazing job John Dorsey has done so far, and it's spectacular.
I offer this link because the writer was thorough and objective. In fact, this guy pointed out some Sashi Brown screw-ups that I had overlooked.
But you people need to remember Myles Garrett, Ogunjobi, Schobert, Zeitler, Tretter, and several other guys that John Dorsey ineritted, along with his bounty of draft picks and cap money.
John Dorsey is "maxing out" on his inheritance from Rodney Brownfield and Rodney DePodestafield, but is probably all-in on DePodesta.
...And Jimmy Haslam, like Art Modell, was probably never the micromanager he's accused of being (see earlier posts. THINK. T H I N K.)
JFC you're lynching Jimmy Haslam (already) like you lynched Art Modell (and Bill Belichick) already...again!?!
...but yes: John Dorsey is all that (even if you can't give Haslam credit for hiring him because you're a permabasher or otherwise mentally ill).
The 2019 Browns are Superbowl contenders.
DEAL with it
Friday, March 15, 2019
Wednesday, March 13, 2019
John Dorsey is Amazing. Cleveland Browns Might be the Most Talented Team in the AFC Already.
I know what you're all thinking: "What does HE think of the new players?"
Well, per PFF, Adarius Taylor is even worse than Christian Kirksey. Both players rank below 45 overall, and against the pass, and the run. That's why John Dorsey was able to sign Taylor for peanuts.
Taylor can play any linebacker position, and may be good on special teams...move along, nothing to see here. Cheap veteran depth.
Demetrius Thomas is very similar to Darren Fells, except much younger, and I assume cheaper. Dorsey may have had him in the bag when he released Fells.
Thomas excels on special teams, playing on every unit, so he does represent an upgrade there, as Taylor is a depth upgrade.
I already addressed the two defensive linemen, each of which rank in the top third of players at their respective positions overall and as passrushers.
These two are obviously significant upgrades. That's why even before OBJ was secured, we were feeling dangerous around here.
But some of you people need to back it up on this "urgent need" at safety that losing Peppers creates.
Steve Wilks will lean heavily to off-man and zone coverages (often 3-deep) at least between the edges. While Rodney Kindredfield's 2018 PFF grades were much lower than they were in 2017, in 2017 he was playing the hybrid linebacker/strong safety role in the Williams defense, while Peppers was at free.
Kindred was one of the better "safeties" in the NFL in 2017, especially vs the run.
Steve Wilks is a DB coach first, and (screw the "labels"), will have no problem putting Kindred in places where he can succeed.
Having said that, Dorsey does need another safety, and sure: he could find somebody better in coverage than Kindred.
Hmm...the Chiefs just released Eric Berry.
Berry is a geezer (30) and has been injured the last couple seasons. He should be fine off his achilles injury, but in 2018 it was bone spurs, and he refused surgery.
All of this will drive his price down; no team can afford to pay him like the player he was prior to these injuries, bet on his skills not having diminished (sound familiar?), or even count on him in general.
All of this is music to John Dorsey's ears. He can ruthlessly exploit Berry's lack of leverage and sign him dirt cheap.
Maybe Berry returns 100%, and can stay healthy. If so, Wilks would be in heaven. Maybe he's not as good as he was three years ago, and/or misses more time. Still, he was so good before that, he could certainly help in 2019, even in a part-time role.
Berry is really a Free (not strong) safety, so at the very least he could back up Damarius Randall. But he's also good as a cover two safety, and Wilks would have no problem using the both of them, if Berry comes out near his cieling.
Dan Justik lists his version of the Browns remaining needs in the wake of the OBJ blockbuster, and it was pretty sharp:
From lowest to highest, Dan says Offensive Line Depth, Cornerback, Linebacker, and Safety.
With Corbett stepping up to replace Zeitler, Dan is right about Offensive Line depth. Dan is one of the few analysts smart enough to acknowlege the existance of Rodney Harrisonfield at Tackle, but for the moment, there's no "utility" guy.
If one of the inside three guys bites the dust, that's a problem as it is.
You do need that "utility" guy. If you don't have him, you have to move your starting guard to center, because your top interior backup can't play center, for example, and you blow all the communication and chemistry to hell by switching two positions to replace one injured player.
Cornerback, I'm not so sure about, but Dan makes a good case. Mitchell got hurt, and so did everybody else, and TJ Gaines looks like a GMF.
However Boddy-Calhoun, and TJ Carrie should prosper under Wilks, as their skill-sets fit his scheme.
But you can never have enough corners, so I can't call Dan a dumbass for this.
He's right about linebacker, too, but for the wrong reasons: Based on his rookie season, Dan has decided that, despite his exceptional speed, quickness, and agility, that Genard Avery is not a real linebacker, and a permanent "liability" in coverage.
Dan is wrong about this. First, Avery was a rookie, and, much like pass-protection and pass-catching is commonly "taught" to unpolished rookie running backs in the NFL, coverage is taught to fast, quick, agile but unpolished linebackers.
Dan shouldn't assume that Genard Avery won't improve in year two. In fact, he should assume the contrary.
Second, Wilks probably won't have linebackers trying to man-cover tight ends or running backs anyway.
The Steelers used to "drop" a slower, less agile James Harrison to a spot, where he would "plug up" several routes, and could react to the ball in the air...
I've addressed this before. Suffice it to say that Genard Avery will be a starting linebacker in 2019, and not a "designated edge-rusher".
It's actually Christian Kirksey who needs to be replaced.
Joe Schobert, who LED THE NFL IN MISSED TACKLES, was also one of the best coverage linebackers in the NFL in 2018, so Dan can say what he wants about...
Nevermind if I get started on that I can't stop, and will put you in a coma. Suffice it to say that Schobert excels in coverage, Avery will be fine in zone, and the SYSTEM MATTERS DO YOU UNDERSTAND?
But hell yes Jordan Hicks or even one of those 30 year old stud linebackers would come in mighty handy for what is now unmistakeably a Superbowl attempt by John Dorsey.
The bar is raised now, so Dan is right about a "need" at safety too, despite the fact that Derrick Kindred is being massively underrated.
And yeah, that's correct: Despite what John Dorsey said earlier ("We're not there yet"), he has obviously decided that the Browns are "there", right tf now.
As you guys know, I've been all but dismissing these OBJ trade rumors, but that was because I thought it would cost too much for this hugely talented flake.
But 17 overall, a third round pick, and Peppers was NOT too much to pay. In fact, for thefew one of us who thinks Derrick Kindred is pretty good, John Dorsey hit a home run.
But this trade looks even better, the deeper you look:
Beckham fits the KitchensMonken scheme perfectly. He fits Baker Mayfield perfectly, too (better than a skyscraper "go-doo" receiver the majority of you people thought Mayfield "needed").
He reunites with Jarvis Landry, who is an "alpha dog" who might just be able to keep OBJ's head out of his ass.
Current Browns Wide Receiver Coach Adam Henry coached Beckham and Landry for two years in college in the same role.
We can hope that the change of scenery, these factors, and simply growing a year older will help OBJ perform a successful head-extraction, but even if that operation is unsuccessful, he's still one of the most lethal weapons in the NFL.
Note: Ebineezer Bell is signing with the Jets for less than the Steelers offered him two years ago. Congratulations, Ebineezer! I can't wait to see you discover that your offensive line makes a difference! (Not bad for the Jets, though. They didn't overpay too much.)
But I digress: As everybody both locally and nationally has been saying (except no doubt Pat Kirwan and our home-grown permabashers), the Cleveland Browns are now the consensus favorites to (at least) win the AFC North.
...W O W.
But ok: Baker Mayfield, as a ROOKIE, did what he did last season.
NOW, he has OBJ in addition to Callaway, Landry, Njoku (Higgins etc) and (so far) Duke.
Look back to Nick Chubb's rookie season in college (and last four games of his NFL rookie season) and you will comprehend why I compare him to Todd Gurley.
Add to that the EXTANT Defensive Line upgrades (rendering it at least in the top 7 in the NFL), John Dorsey not being "done" in free agency yet, and how well he drafts--oh hell yes be unafraid. Be very unafraid!
Dorsey doesn't have 17 overall now, but has his mid-second and (I think) mid third-round pick (I think he traded the "Shelton" pick).
...anyway, regardless of what further havoc John Dorsey can be counted on to wreak in free agency, it's likely that he will add two new major 2019 contributors (unless one of the two top picks is an offensive lineman).
Anyway, the rest of the AFC North is already in trouble. Amazing work by John Dorsey and (ahem): Paul DePodesta🖕.
DEAL with it!
Well, per PFF, Adarius Taylor is even worse than Christian Kirksey. Both players rank below 45 overall, and against the pass, and the run. That's why John Dorsey was able to sign Taylor for peanuts.
Taylor can play any linebacker position, and may be good on special teams...move along, nothing to see here. Cheap veteran depth.
Demetrius Thomas is very similar to Darren Fells, except much younger, and I assume cheaper. Dorsey may have had him in the bag when he released Fells.
Thomas excels on special teams, playing on every unit, so he does represent an upgrade there, as Taylor is a depth upgrade.
I already addressed the two defensive linemen, each of which rank in the top third of players at their respective positions overall and as passrushers.
These two are obviously significant upgrades. That's why even before OBJ was secured, we were feeling dangerous around here.
But some of you people need to back it up on this "urgent need" at safety that losing Peppers creates.
Steve Wilks will lean heavily to off-man and zone coverages (often 3-deep) at least between the edges. While Rodney Kindredfield's 2018 PFF grades were much lower than they were in 2017, in 2017 he was playing the hybrid linebacker/strong safety role in the Williams defense, while Peppers was at free.
Kindred was one of the better "safeties" in the NFL in 2017, especially vs the run.
Steve Wilks is a DB coach first, and (screw the "labels"), will have no problem putting Kindred in places where he can succeed.
Having said that, Dorsey does need another safety, and sure: he could find somebody better in coverage than Kindred.
Hmm...the Chiefs just released Eric Berry.
Berry is a geezer (30) and has been injured the last couple seasons. He should be fine off his achilles injury, but in 2018 it was bone spurs, and he refused surgery.
All of this will drive his price down; no team can afford to pay him like the player he was prior to these injuries, bet on his skills not having diminished (sound familiar?), or even count on him in general.
All of this is music to John Dorsey's ears. He can ruthlessly exploit Berry's lack of leverage and sign him dirt cheap.
Maybe Berry returns 100%, and can stay healthy. If so, Wilks would be in heaven. Maybe he's not as good as he was three years ago, and/or misses more time. Still, he was so good before that, he could certainly help in 2019, even in a part-time role.
Berry is really a Free (not strong) safety, so at the very least he could back up Damarius Randall. But he's also good as a cover two safety, and Wilks would have no problem using the both of them, if Berry comes out near his cieling.
Dan Justik lists his version of the Browns remaining needs in the wake of the OBJ blockbuster, and it was pretty sharp:
From lowest to highest, Dan says Offensive Line Depth, Cornerback, Linebacker, and Safety.
With Corbett stepping up to replace Zeitler, Dan is right about Offensive Line depth. Dan is one of the few analysts smart enough to acknowlege the existance of Rodney Harrisonfield at Tackle, but for the moment, there's no "utility" guy.
If one of the inside three guys bites the dust, that's a problem as it is.
You do need that "utility" guy. If you don't have him, you have to move your starting guard to center, because your top interior backup can't play center, for example, and you blow all the communication and chemistry to hell by switching two positions to replace one injured player.
Cornerback, I'm not so sure about, but Dan makes a good case. Mitchell got hurt, and so did everybody else, and TJ Gaines looks like a GMF.
However Boddy-Calhoun, and TJ Carrie should prosper under Wilks, as their skill-sets fit his scheme.
But you can never have enough corners, so I can't call Dan a dumbass for this.
He's right about linebacker, too, but for the wrong reasons: Based on his rookie season, Dan has decided that, despite his exceptional speed, quickness, and agility, that Genard Avery is not a real linebacker, and a permanent "liability" in coverage.
Dan is wrong about this. First, Avery was a rookie, and, much like pass-protection and pass-catching is commonly "taught" to unpolished rookie running backs in the NFL, coverage is taught to fast, quick, agile but unpolished linebackers.
Dan shouldn't assume that Genard Avery won't improve in year two. In fact, he should assume the contrary.
Second, Wilks probably won't have linebackers trying to man-cover tight ends or running backs anyway.
The Steelers used to "drop" a slower, less agile James Harrison to a spot, where he would "plug up" several routes, and could react to the ball in the air...
I've addressed this before. Suffice it to say that Genard Avery will be a starting linebacker in 2019, and not a "designated edge-rusher".
It's actually Christian Kirksey who needs to be replaced.
Joe Schobert, who LED THE NFL IN MISSED TACKLES, was also one of the best coverage linebackers in the NFL in 2018, so Dan can say what he wants about...
Nevermind if I get started on that I can't stop, and will put you in a coma. Suffice it to say that Schobert excels in coverage, Avery will be fine in zone, and the SYSTEM MATTERS DO YOU UNDERSTAND?
But hell yes Jordan Hicks or even one of those 30 year old stud linebackers would come in mighty handy for what is now unmistakeably a Superbowl attempt by John Dorsey.
The bar is raised now, so Dan is right about a "need" at safety too, despite the fact that Derrick Kindred is being massively underrated.
And yeah, that's correct: Despite what John Dorsey said earlier ("We're not there yet"), he has obviously decided that the Browns are "there", right tf now.
As you guys know, I've been all but dismissing these OBJ trade rumors, but that was because I thought it would cost too much for this hugely talented flake.
But 17 overall, a third round pick, and Peppers was NOT too much to pay. In fact, for the
But this trade looks even better, the deeper you look:
Beckham fits the KitchensMonken scheme perfectly. He fits Baker Mayfield perfectly, too (better than a skyscraper "go-doo" receiver the majority of you people thought Mayfield "needed").
He reunites with Jarvis Landry, who is an "alpha dog" who might just be able to keep OBJ's head out of his ass.
Current Browns Wide Receiver Coach Adam Henry coached Beckham and Landry for two years in college in the same role.
We can hope that the change of scenery, these factors, and simply growing a year older will help OBJ perform a successful head-extraction, but even if that operation is unsuccessful, he's still one of the most lethal weapons in the NFL.
Note: Ebineezer Bell is signing with the Jets for less than the Steelers offered him two years ago. Congratulations, Ebineezer! I can't wait to see you discover that your offensive line makes a difference! (Not bad for the Jets, though. They didn't overpay too much.)
But I digress: As everybody both locally and nationally has been saying (except no doubt Pat Kirwan and our home-grown permabashers), the Cleveland Browns are now the consensus favorites to (at least) win the AFC North.
...W O W.
But ok: Baker Mayfield, as a ROOKIE, did what he did last season.
NOW, he has OBJ in addition to Callaway, Landry, Njoku (Higgins etc) and (so far) Duke.
Look back to Nick Chubb's rookie season in college (and last four games of his NFL rookie season) and you will comprehend why I compare him to Todd Gurley.
Add to that the EXTANT Defensive Line upgrades (rendering it at least in the top 7 in the NFL), John Dorsey not being "done" in free agency yet, and how well he drafts--oh hell yes be unafraid. Be very unafraid!
Dorsey doesn't have 17 overall now, but has his mid-second and (I think) mid third-round pick (I think he traded the "Shelton" pick).
...anyway, regardless of what further havoc John Dorsey can be counted on to wreak in free agency, it's likely that he will add two new major 2019 contributors (unless one of the two top picks is an offensive lineman).
Anyway, the rest of the AFC North is already in trouble. Amazing work by John Dorsey and (ahem): Paul DePodesta🖕.
DEAL with it!
Tuesday, March 12, 2019
The Insideously Diabolical John Dorsey and Cleveland Browns Stuff
My peeps texted that Zagura was talking about an imminant trade for OBJ. My head was about to explode until they continued:
This year's first, next year's second, and Ogbah. Now that might not suck too bad!
But it's hard to imagine that Gettleman would do it, considering the massive dead money hit he would take, and--are they rebuilding, or what?
Even if they are, OBJ is still in his prime. Rebuilding teams dump players near or over 30. They want to get rid of him because he's a flake and a goofball?
Well until I read more I'll just treat it like the Dez Bryant rumors last year. And yes, Jarvis Landry tried to recruit him too. (Strange individual, this Jarvis.)
Sheldon Richardson? I'll buy that for a dollar!
50% of the Defensive Line is now brand new, and both new additions are proven upper-echelon, reliable players.
DE Olivier Vernon and DT Sheldon Richardson are both "total package" players who stop the run as well as terrorize quarterbacks.
They'll cost Dorsey some serious money, but as you'll see, not as much as the guys at the top of these position-markets. In the real world, you only get one Myles Garrett per-team.
Richardson (reportedly 3 years, 36 mil), is kind of discounted due to his off-the-field arrest and suspension for substance abuse; he's really worth a lot more than that.
Dorsey isn't so much Father Flannagan as he is an opportunist. He saves a lot of money by lowballing players with "warts".
And yes...that's...ANALYTICS.
I'm surprised (and pleased) that Breshad Perriman signed a one year, 4 mil "prove it" deal. He must have read my Blog and overrode Drew Rosenheist!
This was smart for both sides. Perriman showed great upside with limited opportunities last season.
Most likely, interest from other teams was tepid, and they offered him cheap one-year deals as well.
Possibly he could have made 20% more somewhere else, but it's smarter for him to stick with the Coach and Quarterback who brought him back from the scrap-heap.
This could actually turn out to be a much more important signing than most fans and pundits think, due to Perriman's immense upside.
This guy will come in fully intending to START, and will be given that chance.
Perriman is actually the ideal X receiver for a Kitchens/Monken/Mayfield offense. He's stronger and taller than most cornerbacks, has deep speed, and is dangerous after the catch.
Perriman was only on the roster for part of last season, but by the end of it, Baker Mayfield was starting to rely on him (and he had zero drops).
I can't allow myself to get too optimistic, as after his great 2010 season, I declared Braylon Edwards (Edwards Scissorhands) "over his drops", and he proceeded to just about lead the NFL in dropped passes.
Jersey writer Matt Lombardo lets his homerwear show as he repeats a rumor that the Browns are offering two first round picks and Ogbah for Beckham and a second.
Most of you, I know, wonder why the hell John Dorsey would bend over like that.
If he were on the verge of winning a Superbowl, John Dorsey might let himself get hosed like that, but as he himself said:
"We're not there yet".
Now I know where these rumors are coming from. Except for Open Borders Landry, it's a Jersey thing.
Matthew McFatridge makes a great case for Blake Bortles as a backup quarterback.
Is Bridgewater still out there? He would be a better fit.
Josh Edwards wrote a competent article on the re-signing of DT Carl Davis. Davis is a depth guy best suited for running downs, as he can two-gap and anchor.
He might still be released if the Browns draft a Defensive Tackle, but it's possible that the new regime likes him better than Trevon Coley, and would dump Coley instead.
Davis is a tall, powerful guy that can do more than be a human fire hydrant. He's not an explosive athlete or anything, but he can collapse a pocket and make tackles one gap over.
If he's not kicked to the curb by a draft pick, Davis will show up in short yardage and goal-line situations.
A big part of the Browns' defensive problems last season was the lack of depth on the Defensive Line. The starters played too many snaps, and wore down late in games and in the season.
Pending some sort of trade, Ogbah and Davis/Coley are now rotational backups.
The Vernon and Richardson signings kicked two starters down one rung, and improved depth as well.
I'm positive that John Dorsey will draft a Defensive Tackle somewhere in this draft, and kick Coley or Davis to the curb-further upgrading depth.
Dan Labbe wrote a really impressive, insightful, and brilliant article just now. If you doubt that, compare it to this post! And I know Dan didn't steal it from me, because I haven't published yet!
The Richardson and Vernon signings do effect John Dorsey's Draft strategy, as intended---but as we saw last offseason, he traded for and signed FOUR back-end players, and still drafted Denzel Ward 4th overall.
The Browns still haven't fixed the glitch that returns my texts and emails as undeliverable, so would you guys please tell John Dorsey to target Devin Bush, Devin White, Ed Oliver, Wilkins, or any of the "top ten" guys who slide (except Metcalf)?
For John Dorsey and the Browns in 2019, this is verily a "best available" draft, as the talent aligns perfectly with the Browns' (real and not hallucinated) needs.
Realisticly, Bush is the Devin who should be available at 17, partly because he was a whole tenth of a second slower than White in the 40😨.
Dorsey still has a shot at Jordan Hicks in free agency, but if he can't pull it off,I say we HANG im.Bush (and White too) are like Shazier was...
(Just a note here: God bless Rooney for retaining and paying Ryan Shazier. That's a great man, there.)
Anyway, in the real world/on this planet, Genard Avery will be a starting, fully functional, strong side linebacker in 2019.
Christian Kirksey is a leader and a great guy, but PFF and Numberfire say he aint all that as an actual player.
On this planet (which I hereby dub "Reality"), a Devin (of some sort) would significantly upgrade the WIL position (rendering Kirksey either great depth or trade bait).
I might have lost you there. Sorry. Just read it again (I'll wait....)
The Devins are small, but can blitze, cover tight ends, excel in zone, and are faster than most free safeties and the majority of cornerbacks. They have great instincts, and well (here again) see "Shazier, Ryan".
...but then there's---nevermind. Okbye.
THIS JUST IN: OBJ for a first, third, and Peppers. THAT is reasonable! WOW.
M
This year's first, next year's second, and Ogbah. Now that might not suck too bad!
But it's hard to imagine that Gettleman would do it, considering the massive dead money hit he would take, and--are they rebuilding, or what?
Even if they are, OBJ is still in his prime. Rebuilding teams dump players near or over 30. They want to get rid of him because he's a flake and a goofball?
Well until I read more I'll just treat it like the Dez Bryant rumors last year. And yes, Jarvis Landry tried to recruit him too. (Strange individual, this Jarvis.)
Sheldon Richardson? I'll buy that for a dollar!
50% of the Defensive Line is now brand new, and both new additions are proven upper-echelon, reliable players.
DE Olivier Vernon and DT Sheldon Richardson are both "total package" players who stop the run as well as terrorize quarterbacks.
They'll cost Dorsey some serious money, but as you'll see, not as much as the guys at the top of these position-markets. In the real world, you only get one Myles Garrett per-team.
Richardson (reportedly 3 years, 36 mil), is kind of discounted due to his off-the-field arrest and suspension for substance abuse; he's really worth a lot more than that.
Dorsey isn't so much Father Flannagan as he is an opportunist. He saves a lot of money by lowballing players with "warts".
And yes...that's...ANALYTICS.
I'm surprised (and pleased) that Breshad Perriman signed a one year, 4 mil "prove it" deal. He must have read my Blog and overrode Drew Rosenheist!
This was smart for both sides. Perriman showed great upside with limited opportunities last season.
Most likely, interest from other teams was tepid, and they offered him cheap one-year deals as well.
Possibly he could have made 20% more somewhere else, but it's smarter for him to stick with the Coach and Quarterback who brought him back from the scrap-heap.
This could actually turn out to be a much more important signing than most fans and pundits think, due to Perriman's immense upside.
This guy will come in fully intending to START, and will be given that chance.
Perriman is actually the ideal X receiver for a Kitchens/Monken/Mayfield offense. He's stronger and taller than most cornerbacks, has deep speed, and is dangerous after the catch.
Perriman was only on the roster for part of last season, but by the end of it, Baker Mayfield was starting to rely on him (and he had zero drops).
I can't allow myself to get too optimistic, as after his great 2010 season, I declared Braylon Edwards (Edwards Scissorhands) "over his drops", and he proceeded to just about lead the NFL in dropped passes.
Jersey writer Matt Lombardo lets his homerwear show as he repeats a rumor that the Browns are offering two first round picks and Ogbah for Beckham and a second.
Most of you, I know, wonder why the hell John Dorsey would bend over like that.
If he were on the verge of winning a Superbowl, John Dorsey might let himself get hosed like that, but as he himself said:
"We're not there yet".
Now I know where these rumors are coming from. Except for Open Borders Landry, it's a Jersey thing.
Matthew McFatridge makes a great case for Blake Bortles as a backup quarterback.
Is Bridgewater still out there? He would be a better fit.
Josh Edwards wrote a competent article on the re-signing of DT Carl Davis. Davis is a depth guy best suited for running downs, as he can two-gap and anchor.
He might still be released if the Browns draft a Defensive Tackle, but it's possible that the new regime likes him better than Trevon Coley, and would dump Coley instead.
Davis is a tall, powerful guy that can do more than be a human fire hydrant. He's not an explosive athlete or anything, but he can collapse a pocket and make tackles one gap over.
If he's not kicked to the curb by a draft pick, Davis will show up in short yardage and goal-line situations.
A big part of the Browns' defensive problems last season was the lack of depth on the Defensive Line. The starters played too many snaps, and wore down late in games and in the season.
Pending some sort of trade, Ogbah and Davis/Coley are now rotational backups.
The Vernon and Richardson signings kicked two starters down one rung, and improved depth as well.
I'm positive that John Dorsey will draft a Defensive Tackle somewhere in this draft, and kick Coley or Davis to the curb-further upgrading depth.
Dan Labbe wrote a really impressive, insightful, and brilliant article just now. If you doubt that, compare it to this post! And I know Dan didn't steal it from me, because I haven't published yet!
The Richardson and Vernon signings do effect John Dorsey's Draft strategy, as intended---but as we saw last offseason, he traded for and signed FOUR back-end players, and still drafted Denzel Ward 4th overall.
The Browns still haven't fixed the glitch that returns my texts and emails as undeliverable, so would you guys please tell John Dorsey to target Devin Bush, Devin White, Ed Oliver, Wilkins, or any of the "top ten" guys who slide (except Metcalf)?
For John Dorsey and the Browns in 2019, this is verily a "best available" draft, as the talent aligns perfectly with the Browns' (real and not hallucinated) needs.
Realisticly, Bush is the Devin who should be available at 17, partly because he was a whole tenth of a second slower than White in the 40😨.
Dorsey still has a shot at Jordan Hicks in free agency, but if he can't pull it off,
(Just a note here: God bless Rooney for retaining and paying Ryan Shazier. That's a great man, there.)
Anyway, in the real world/on this planet, Genard Avery will be a starting, fully functional, strong side linebacker in 2019.
Christian Kirksey is a leader and a great guy, but PFF and Numberfire say he aint all that as an actual player.
On this planet (which I hereby dub "Reality"), a Devin (of some sort) would significantly upgrade the WIL position (rendering Kirksey either great depth or trade bait).
I might have lost you there. Sorry. Just read it again (I'll wait....)
The Devins are small, but can blitze, cover tight ends, excel in zone, and are faster than most free safeties and the majority of cornerbacks. They have great instincts, and well (here again) see "Shazier, Ryan".
...but then there's---nevermind. Okbye.
THIS JUST IN: OBJ for a first, third, and Peppers. THAT is reasonable! WOW.
M
Monday, March 11, 2019
The Cleveland Browns are the Team to Beat in the AFC North. OBVIOUSLY.
I was gone for awhile, but I'm back now:
Listening to Steelers' Cult-leader Pat Kirwan on Antonio Brown Radio, you'd think losing Antonio Brown is no big deal for the Steelers. "They'll be fine! Remember, they won the Superbowl the year after they moved on from Plaxico Burress?"
Err...Brown=Burress now?
Well, rumors of the Steelers' 2019 demise are, in fact, greatly exaggerated, but Pat is also...not objective:
The 21 mil dead money hit they took was 11% of their salary cap. And AB is a PIA, but was still easily one of the three best wide receivers in the NFL, and this loss is an irrefutable downgrade.
The Steelers drafted WR James Washington in the second round in 2018, and he might be pretty good in season two (the Steelers' second round picks all seem to "hit").
The real strength of the Steelers' offense is one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, and this will remain intact. They still have Big Ben, Smith-Schuster, that tight end and those running backs, so that offense will again be among the best in the NFL...
But not as good as it was in 2018, Pat.
Don't you get tired of this? The Ravens "will be fine" because they had the best Defense in 2018, and the Steelers "will be fine" because they had a prolific offense?
The Steelers have issues on defense, and the Ravens have issues on offense. The Steelers haven't been able to fix their secondary issues or establish a pass-rush. Losing Ryan Shazier hurt them badly, and they haven't recovered yet.
The Steelers win high-scoring games because they have to, and Big Ben is 37 years old, and gets hurt, and Pat?
The (very high) third and fifth rounders they got for Brown will help, but they can't afford to do anything significant in free agency because they're down to 17 mil in cap space, and Colbert can't forget about his players who are entering their final contract years, or replacing Big Ben.
Pat Kirwan was a GM himself (New York Jets). I shouldn't have to point all this stuff out to him.
Anyway, the 2019 Steelers won't be "fine", because they're in the same Division as Baker Mayfield and the Cleveland Browns.
A study in contrasts:
The Steelers lost AB. The Browns lost Zeitler, but gained Olivier Vernon, and replace Zeitler with a top second round 2018 Dorsey draft pick. The Steelers also lost TE Jesse James.
The Steelers can't be very active in free agency. The Browns WILL be, and will upgrade significantly with plug-and-play veterans ahead of the draft.
The Browns draft around a half-round higher in each round than the Steelers do (until the third round).
The Steelers need a Shazier-like linebacker, 3-4 passrushers, and back end players. The Browns need defensive tackles, and (just kinda) a linebacker and cornerback.
This draft class favors the Browns' needs over the Steelers' needs. Colbert can do a better job than Dorsey, and still "lose".
The Browns roster is young and ascending. The Steelers' roster is treading water.
John Dorsey has other advantages and potential advantages:
He can trade Duke Johnson, Ogbah, and probably other guys I'm missing, before or after the draft.
He can draft "best available" more than for need. Colbert, lacking veteran free agent options and ascending talent, and stuck near the bottom of each round, will have to target position players, and sometimes bypass better talent at other positions.
Speaking of the Draft, this Browns mock draft by Randy Gurzi didn't suck!
Randy drafts LB Devin Bush at 17 overall. Bush is like Shazier. 'nuff said.
In round 2, he exploits the extraordinary DT depth in this class by taking DT Jerry Tillary out of Notre Dame. Per Randy (and the experts he cites), Tillary was a late bloomer (7 sacks in 2018, along with all the normal DT stats...prior to that, he was shaky).
Hillary isn't a finished product yet, but appears ready to start immediately anyway. He's 6'6", 295, so he'll obviously get bigger, and he has the "length" that John Dorsey said he favors.
At 17 in the third round, it's microbe WR Parris Campbell from some college in Ohio.
In the middle of the third round!?! I'm all-in on that! The Browns need a slot receiver like they need a hole in the head, but this guy definitely upgrades the WR corps, especially if Duke Johnson is dealt and Jarvis Landry is the Z.
This guy gets open, has great hands, and makes big plays. In the first or second round, no thanks, but in the middle of the third? Where do I sign?
Randy drafts TE Kahale Warring and CB Justin Layne in the 3rd and 4th rounds, and an athletic offensive tackle in the 5th...et cetera.
I like all of this. Randy has made great progress since his first mock draft. He's also got a much better (if imperfect) grip on the Browns' real needs.
Admit it, Randy. You read this Blog.
Anyway, in the lower rounds, Randy is pragmatic and looks for unrefined talent with great upside, and zeroes in on positions of need.
In the 7th round, he drafts kicker Matt Gay. That's smart too. Use that last pick to lock up the best kicker available.
Most 7th round picks are released (not even put on practice squads) anyway, and kickers cost the Browns at least three games in 2018.
My peeps are excited by the prospect of stealing C J Mosely from the Ravens. I am, too, but the Ratbirds just let Gramps Suggs go, and must be determined to keep Mosely now (partly because they don't have anybody else worth keeping).
It's still an auction, though, and I think all Dorsey can do is make the Ravens overpay for Mosely.
Anthony Barr or Jordan Hicks are more likely to actually sign up with the Browns.
These other bird-teams have different cap situations and priorities. Hicks has missed time with injuries, and should be the cheapest. (by the way, if you click that link, take a stupid pill first).
Linebacker isn't the "urgent" need the pundits are telling you it is, anyway.
Randy Gurzi points out that new DC Steve Wilks will often use less than three real linebackers. Randy also thinks that the ability to cover opposing tight ends must be a priority for any new linebackers.
........Joe Schobert was one of the best coverage linebackers in the NFL in 2018, and Steve Wilks is a "zone" guy, so...
Ok Randy: I look forward to your next unattributed revelation, as you figure this out without reading THIS.
Listening to Steelers' Cult-leader Pat Kirwan on Antonio Brown Radio, you'd think losing Antonio Brown is no big deal for the Steelers. "They'll be fine! Remember, they won the Superbowl the year after they moved on from Plaxico Burress?"
Err...Brown=Burress now?
Well, rumors of the Steelers' 2019 demise are, in fact, greatly exaggerated, but Pat is also...not objective:
The 21 mil dead money hit they took was 11% of their salary cap. And AB is a PIA, but was still easily one of the three best wide receivers in the NFL, and this loss is an irrefutable downgrade.
The Steelers drafted WR James Washington in the second round in 2018, and he might be pretty good in season two (the Steelers' second round picks all seem to "hit").
The real strength of the Steelers' offense is one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, and this will remain intact. They still have Big Ben, Smith-Schuster, that tight end and those running backs, so that offense will again be among the best in the NFL...
But not as good as it was in 2018, Pat.
Don't you get tired of this? The Ravens "will be fine" because they had the best Defense in 2018, and the Steelers "will be fine" because they had a prolific offense?
The Steelers have issues on defense, and the Ravens have issues on offense. The Steelers haven't been able to fix their secondary issues or establish a pass-rush. Losing Ryan Shazier hurt them badly, and they haven't recovered yet.
The Steelers win high-scoring games because they have to, and Big Ben is 37 years old, and gets hurt, and Pat?
The (very high) third and fifth rounders they got for Brown will help, but they can't afford to do anything significant in free agency because they're down to 17 mil in cap space, and Colbert can't forget about his players who are entering their final contract years, or replacing Big Ben.
Pat Kirwan was a GM himself (New York Jets). I shouldn't have to point all this stuff out to him.
Anyway, the 2019 Steelers won't be "fine", because they're in the same Division as Baker Mayfield and the Cleveland Browns.
A study in contrasts:
The Steelers lost AB. The Browns lost Zeitler, but gained Olivier Vernon, and replace Zeitler with a top second round 2018 Dorsey draft pick. The Steelers also lost TE Jesse James.
The Steelers can't be very active in free agency. The Browns WILL be, and will upgrade significantly with plug-and-play veterans ahead of the draft.
The Browns draft around a half-round higher in each round than the Steelers do (until the third round).
The Steelers need a Shazier-like linebacker, 3-4 passrushers, and back end players. The Browns need defensive tackles, and (just kinda) a linebacker and cornerback.
This draft class favors the Browns' needs over the Steelers' needs. Colbert can do a better job than Dorsey, and still "lose".
The Browns roster is young and ascending. The Steelers' roster is treading water.
John Dorsey has other advantages and potential advantages:
He can trade Duke Johnson, Ogbah, and probably other guys I'm missing, before or after the draft.
He can draft "best available" more than for need. Colbert, lacking veteran free agent options and ascending talent, and stuck near the bottom of each round, will have to target position players, and sometimes bypass better talent at other positions.
Speaking of the Draft, this Browns mock draft by Randy Gurzi didn't suck!
Randy drafts LB Devin Bush at 17 overall. Bush is like Shazier. 'nuff said.
In round 2, he exploits the extraordinary DT depth in this class by taking DT Jerry Tillary out of Notre Dame. Per Randy (and the experts he cites), Tillary was a late bloomer (7 sacks in 2018, along with all the normal DT stats...prior to that, he was shaky).
Hillary isn't a finished product yet, but appears ready to start immediately anyway. He's 6'6", 295, so he'll obviously get bigger, and he has the "length" that John Dorsey said he favors.
At 17 in the third round, it's microbe WR Parris Campbell from some college in Ohio.
In the middle of the third round!?! I'm all-in on that! The Browns need a slot receiver like they need a hole in the head, but this guy definitely upgrades the WR corps, especially if Duke Johnson is dealt and Jarvis Landry is the Z.
This guy gets open, has great hands, and makes big plays. In the first or second round, no thanks, but in the middle of the third? Where do I sign?
Randy drafts TE Kahale Warring and CB Justin Layne in the 3rd and 4th rounds, and an athletic offensive tackle in the 5th...et cetera.
I like all of this. Randy has made great progress since his first mock draft. He's also got a much better (if imperfect) grip on the Browns' real needs.
Admit it, Randy. You read this Blog.
Anyway, in the lower rounds, Randy is pragmatic and looks for unrefined talent with great upside, and zeroes in on positions of need.
In the 7th round, he drafts kicker Matt Gay. That's smart too. Use that last pick to lock up the best kicker available.
Most 7th round picks are released (not even put on practice squads) anyway, and kickers cost the Browns at least three games in 2018.
My peeps are excited by the prospect of stealing C J Mosely from the Ravens. I am, too, but the Ratbirds just let Gramps Suggs go, and must be determined to keep Mosely now (partly because they don't have anybody else worth keeping).
It's still an auction, though, and I think all Dorsey can do is make the Ravens overpay for Mosely.
Anthony Barr or Jordan Hicks are more likely to actually sign up with the Browns.
These other bird-teams have different cap situations and priorities. Hicks has missed time with injuries, and should be the cheapest. (by the way, if you click that link, take a stupid pill first).
Linebacker isn't the "urgent" need the pundits are telling you it is, anyway.
Randy Gurzi points out that new DC Steve Wilks will often use less than three real linebackers. Randy also thinks that the ability to cover opposing tight ends must be a priority for any new linebackers.
........Joe Schobert was one of the best coverage linebackers in the NFL in 2018, and Steve Wilks is a "zone" guy, so...
Ok Randy: I look forward to your next unattributed revelation, as you figure this out without reading THIS.
Sunday, March 10, 2019
Browns Reality Check: Can They SWEEP the AFC North in 2019, or Will a Kicker or referee screw them up?
I'll kinda miss Darren Fells, who actually turned out to be a pretty good receiver as well as blocker.
He was "THE" blocking tight end, however, and by no means washed up. Releasing Fells without having acquired a blocking replacement means something.
I haven't done any analysis at all so far, so I'm figuring this out as I write (WARNING: GENIUS AT WORK)
The notables remaining behind Njoku are Orson Charles and Pharoah Brown (and of course Seth DeValve.
Interestingly, Orson and Seth are kinda similar, as they're both short for tight ends. Charles showed signs of being at least a solid receiver in 2018, and out-blocked DeValve.
I strongly suspect that Kitchens/Monken intend to use an H-back. They may not have a traditional fullback at all, but instead use one of these two guys when extra muscle is called for.
An H-Back is a fullback/tight end hybrid...kinda. An H-Back isn't an in-line blocker like a tight end, but can still chip, or just pass protect like a regular fullback on passes (and of course catch passes themselves--they're bigger and faster than fullbacks, and will do more damage).
H-backs are often in motion when the ball is snapped, and tend to hit defenders from the side (pushing them toward the sideline) and/or go out for passes after the snap.
Pharoah Brown is a more conventional tight end.
Now, former wide receiver DeValve can line up not only in the slot, but outside. I'm not sure about Charles, but he's good for the slot, anyway. Njoku can line up anywhere. Brown--I'm not sure.
We can't know what John Dorseyhas would have lined up with pending free agents, if tampering were legal...but based on what is left on this roster at this time:
There will be a lot of "two tight end" personnel groupings, but the second tight end will not be used in-line.
-snap-snap- I know you're bored (I'm boring myself) but stay with me here:
I think what Monken and Kitchen are cooking up (sorry it was too easy) might be semi-revolutionary and brilliant.
I know it's brilliant, because I came up with most of it myself around ten years ago! (What more proof do you need?)
The real "base defense" for every team in the NFL is some type of nickel. And I'm not sure, but dime defenses might be used more often than 4-3's or 3-4's too.
Lighter. Faster. More back end players. Less press/man, more zone and off-man. More athletic linebackers, with a priority on coverage skills, see?
Well, Monken and Freddie's recipe (I'm sorry) looks like simply A: Discouraging opposing defenses from using their nickel (real base) defensive personnel, B: badly overmatching those guys...
This is hard to explain...As a DC, you see a DeValve and Njoku head to the huddle. You're not a robot, so you're still in your nickel, until you see who the running back is.
If it's Duke, you gotta stick with your nickel. If it's Chubb, you might come down to your nominal base defense.
(I'm leaving out the two-backs and wishbones and diamonds here for simplicity, but note: Freddie will keep using those too).
In reality, no Defensive Coordinator can "solve" this:
1: Duke Johnson is a great receiver, but can also run right up the middle and break tackles and stuff.
2: Chubb is a power-back, but (remember I told you this) will be Todd Gurley in 2019.
3: Seth DeValve (trust me Monken loves him) can line up anywhere:
Seth has been less than stellar as a lead-blocker out of the backfield, and isn't much of an in-line blocker yet, but he can line up anywhere, including near the sideline in the X or Z positions.
3a: Where is Jarvis Landry?
3b: Njoku might line up anywhere too (mainly on the line, but in the slot or outside, as well as where merely human tight ends line up).
Now, if you think Antonio Callaway (slot or outside...or can line up oknevermind) is a "meh" guy, you are an idiot, and he and Landry are two of the players in this group.
You be the enema Defensive Coordinator. How do you stop this...with Baker Mayfield running it, and Freddie Kitchens calling the plays?
Sorry. Unfair question. You can't. All you can do is put your best players on the field, try to get penetration and inside pressure, and keep your free safety deep (and hope he's adequate).
-snap-snap- stay with me here: You put cornerbacks on Landry and Callaway, (and they will both beat single coverage consistently).
Can you put a cornerback on DeValve or Njoku? Technically, you can, but with Baker Mayfield at quarterback, that won't work.
Going down the list, they overmatch your strong safety and (by a wide margin) your linebackers too.
You have to run off-man and zone, and try to jump routes or knock balls loose on those guys.
If you have the talent, you can press/man Callaway or Landry, but only if they line up outside. You can't try that with...
Nevermind--RUNNING the ball will be a big part of this too:
Those of you who listened to me 20 years ago or so know that I like the idea of 250 lb individuals smashing other (preferably smaller) individuals in space at full speed, ideally from theirph left or right (instead of head on).
Anyway, it's just concievable that Monken and Kitchens combined are almost as smart as I am -blush-blush-(believe it or not).
Seriously though, I think the 2019 Browns will list 4 active "tight ends" and zero "fullbacks".
I expect more zone (inside and outside) blocking, more run-pass options, some read-options, and a lot of "heavy" personnel groups with two backs, two tight ends, and even both.
It might just be the most physical spread offense ever.
Finally, at long last, I think that Monkens and Kitchens may have caught up with my humble self (well ok you NEED a Baker Mayfield or Pat Mahomes to pull it off), but:
Mayfield is here. Ahead of free agency and the draft, the 2019 Browns offense is already going to be a juggernaut.
Laugh at me now but believe me later: UNTOUCHED, this Browns' offense in 2019 should rank in the top 5-8. Do you think Mayfield, Callaway, Njoku, Ratley, Willies, Chubb etc will remain static, or regress, or something?
In my father's words: WHAT THE HELL IS THE MATTER WICHOO!?!
The DEFENSE might even be above average!
But John Dorsey is in charge. He has ten draft picks and lots of money.
Bad news for the rest of the AFC North there's a new Sherriff in town...
Okbye
THIS JUST IN: Mary Kay Cabbott said a bunch of stuff I'd intended to say (before I distracted myself) about the Stoolers.
I will zero in on this immortally invincible and devine Division rival in a future post, but for now, Mary Kay wrote an excellent piece.
...okbye again
He was "THE" blocking tight end, however, and by no means washed up. Releasing Fells without having acquired a blocking replacement means something.
I haven't done any analysis at all so far, so I'm figuring this out as I write (WARNING: GENIUS AT WORK)
The notables remaining behind Njoku are Orson Charles and Pharoah Brown (and of course Seth DeValve.
Interestingly, Orson and Seth are kinda similar, as they're both short for tight ends. Charles showed signs of being at least a solid receiver in 2018, and out-blocked DeValve.
I strongly suspect that Kitchens/Monken intend to use an H-back. They may not have a traditional fullback at all, but instead use one of these two guys when extra muscle is called for.
An H-Back is a fullback/tight end hybrid...kinda. An H-Back isn't an in-line blocker like a tight end, but can still chip, or just pass protect like a regular fullback on passes (and of course catch passes themselves--they're bigger and faster than fullbacks, and will do more damage).
H-backs are often in motion when the ball is snapped, and tend to hit defenders from the side (pushing them toward the sideline) and/or go out for passes after the snap.
Pharoah Brown is a more conventional tight end.
Now, former wide receiver DeValve can line up not only in the slot, but outside. I'm not sure about Charles, but he's good for the slot, anyway. Njoku can line up anywhere. Brown--I'm not sure.
We can't know what John Dorsey
There will be a lot of "two tight end" personnel groupings, but the second tight end will not be used in-line.
-snap-snap- I know you're bored (I'm boring myself) but stay with me here:
I think what Monken and Kitchen are cooking up (sorry it was too easy) might be semi-revolutionary and brilliant.
I know it's brilliant, because I came up with most of it myself around ten years ago! (What more proof do you need?)
The real "base defense" for every team in the NFL is some type of nickel. And I'm not sure, but dime defenses might be used more often than 4-3's or 3-4's too.
Lighter. Faster. More back end players. Less press/man, more zone and off-man. More athletic linebackers, with a priority on coverage skills, see?
Well, Monken and Freddie's recipe (I'm sorry) looks like simply A: Discouraging opposing defenses from using their nickel (real base) defensive personnel, B: badly overmatching those guys...
This is hard to explain...As a DC, you see a DeValve and Njoku head to the huddle. You're not a robot, so you're still in your nickel, until you see who the running back is.
If it's Duke, you gotta stick with your nickel. If it's Chubb, you might come down to your nominal base defense.
(I'm leaving out the two-backs and wishbones and diamonds here for simplicity, but note: Freddie will keep using those too).
In reality, no Defensive Coordinator can "solve" this:
1: Duke Johnson is a great receiver, but can also run right up the middle and break tackles and stuff.
2: Chubb is a power-back, but (remember I told you this) will be Todd Gurley in 2019.
3: Seth DeValve (trust me Monken loves him) can line up anywhere:
Seth has been less than stellar as a lead-blocker out of the backfield, and isn't much of an in-line blocker yet, but he can line up anywhere, including near the sideline in the X or Z positions.
3a: Where is Jarvis Landry?
3b: Njoku might line up anywhere too (mainly on the line, but in the slot or outside, as well as where merely human tight ends line up).
Now, if you think Antonio Callaway (slot or outside...or can line up oknevermind) is a "meh" guy, you are an idiot, and he and Landry are two of the players in this group.
You be the enema Defensive Coordinator. How do you stop this...with Baker Mayfield running it, and Freddie Kitchens calling the plays?
Sorry. Unfair question. You can't. All you can do is put your best players on the field, try to get penetration and inside pressure, and keep your free safety deep (and hope he's adequate).
-snap-snap- stay with me here: You put cornerbacks on Landry and Callaway, (and they will both beat single coverage consistently).
Can you put a cornerback on DeValve or Njoku? Technically, you can, but with Baker Mayfield at quarterback, that won't work.
Going down the list, they overmatch your strong safety and (by a wide margin) your linebackers too.
You have to run off-man and zone, and try to jump routes or knock balls loose on those guys.
If you have the talent, you can press/man Callaway or Landry, but only if they line up outside. You can't try that with...
Nevermind--RUNNING the ball will be a big part of this too:
Those of you who listened to me 20 years ago or so know that I like the idea of 250 lb individuals smashing other (preferably smaller) individuals in space at full speed, ideally from theirph left or right (instead of head on).
Anyway, it's just concievable that Monken and Kitchens combined are almost as smart as I am -blush-blush-(believe it or not).
Seriously though, I think the 2019 Browns will list 4 active "tight ends" and zero "fullbacks".
I expect more zone (inside and outside) blocking, more run-pass options, some read-options, and a lot of "heavy" personnel groups with two backs, two tight ends, and even both.
It might just be the most physical spread offense ever.
Finally, at long last, I think that Monkens and Kitchens may have caught up with my humble self (well ok you NEED a Baker Mayfield or Pat Mahomes to pull it off), but:
Mayfield is here. Ahead of free agency and the draft, the 2019 Browns offense is already going to be a juggernaut.
Laugh at me now but believe me later: UNTOUCHED, this Browns' offense in 2019 should rank in the top 5-8. Do you think Mayfield, Callaway, Njoku, Ratley, Willies, Chubb etc will remain static, or regress, or something?
In my father's words: WHAT THE HELL IS THE MATTER WICHOO!?!
The DEFENSE might even be above average!
But John Dorsey is in charge. He has ten draft picks and lots of money.
Bad news for the rest of the AFC North there's a new Sherriff in town...
Okbye
THIS JUST IN: Mary Kay Cabbott said a bunch of stuff I'd intended to say (before I distracted myself) about the Stoolers.
I will zero in on this immortally invincible and devine Division rival in a future post, but for now, Mary Kay wrote an excellent piece.
...okbye again
Saturday, March 9, 2019
Olivier Vernon, Why the Browns Will Win the AFC North, and More Obvious Stuff
Mary Kay Cabbott wrote a very good article on the ramifications of the Zeitler-Vernon trade.
I hadn't known that Vernon had that bad of a high ankle sprain (recall that Myles Garrett had the same injury).
I've had one of those, people, and believe you me, it takes a long time to fully heal. I never played football for a living, but I can guarantee you that there's no way Vernon's ankle was 100% when he came back (after 5 weeks).
His ankle was almost certainly braced and heavily taped (partially immobilized). The last six games of his 2018 season likely reflects most accurately just how good this guy is.
Olivier Vernon fits Dorsey's 4-3 Defensive End profile (though not physically)...
The NFL game is evolving: Run/pass options, scrambling quarterbacks, and quicker, shorter passes. If you're still trying to get your defensive ends around behind the offensive tackles, you're going to get gashed, repeatedly.
From the start, John Dorsey's free agent and drafted defensive ends are good against the run as well as the pass, and shrimps need not apply--no matter how fast they are.
Sure, Von Miller and other EDGE guys are still getting a lot of sacks, but they are stunting inside and up the gut more often, and they're getting some freebies as quarterbacks flee penetrating defensive tackles as well. This includes Myles Garrett.
Mary Kay is right that Ogbah is probably "available" for the right price, but he's about equally as likely to stick around.
As Dorsey said, Gregg Williams used Ogbah inside a lot in 2018, and he probably never fully recovered from his own early-season injury. Dorsey didn't draft him, but he fits Dorsey's profile perfectly.
...well it is getting crowded at DE now, and Dorsey drafted one and signed one, so...(Dorsey holding up his cellphone).
I'm much more excited about Olivier Vernon than I was yesterday. He had his ten-sack season as a Defensive End. As a linebacker, he may only have rushed the passer 50% of the time (wild guess, but probably 66% tops).
Olivier Vernon, at 6'2", 261(?) lbs doesn't have ideal length, bulk, explosion or speed for a defensive end, but he's freakishly strong and maxes out his leverage advantage.
Unlike Ogbah, he's much different from Myles Garrett, so Steve Wilks can move the two around to find the best matchups for each.
Vernon's experience as a (actually pretty good) linebacker means he can still stand up or drop to mess up the "pass" part of Run-Pass Options.
Chris Smith and Chad Thomas are more like Garrett (and Ogbah).
Wait! A couple weeks ago John Dorsey mentioned "length" as one of the things he wanted in defensive linemen! Vernon is 6'2"! Oh no oh no he's going insane!
Nah. Vernon has proven himself. John Dorsey will take the short guy over the tall guy if he's better than the tall guy. (We used to call that common sense, back in the day.)
And Steve Wilks can move Vernon around and change his fronts with him.
Elliott Kennel wrote a great article on the whole alleged (probably fabricated) OBJ trade offer Soap Opera.
Elliott zeroes in on how OBJ is more trouble than he's worth, and this fact (of which I had no idea):
Even in a trade, OBJ's dead money would cost the Giants a fortune.
I love this writer: "Because they're insane, the Giants think OBJ is worth a first round pick--" (I paraphrased).
No doubt Elliott was as irked as I was at the almost certainly fictional report of Gettleman laughing at the notion that Zeitler, Ogbah, and another player (probably Duke) could come anywhere near OBJ's value.
...and OBJ's contract is a case study in how NOT to structure a deal. It's loaded with guaranteed moneys on the back end! It makes a trade very difficult, and just cutting the player far too expensive.
OBJ OWNS the Giants!!! Very, very, very DUMB. Including the Mitchell Schwartze release, find me a move Sashi Brown made that was in that dumbass zip code--I dare ya!
Elliott Kennel, you da man!
Nobody should be surprised that Darren Fells (or anybody else over 30...and Duke...and Ogbah) is in John Dorsey's show room window.
You people never seem to get the difference between being "open for business" and trying to trade players.
In most cases, Dorsey is quite willing to stick with any of these players into 2019 if nobody offers enough for them.
Skyler Carlin predicts that the Browns will win the AFC North in 2019. Nothing new here. Skyler cites all the obvious stuff I have, repeatedly...what the hell I'll repeat it some more, since a lot of people still don't get it:
The guys on NFL Radio worship the Steelers almost as much as they do the Patriots. "They'll be fine".
No, they won't! Roethsenberger is 75 in quarterback years, they still haven't fixed their secondary (or replaced Shazier), and if you say "next man up" in re Antonio Brown I wish I could punch you in the face.
And I bet some of those guys will pick the Ravens to win the Division instead, because they had the best defense in the NFL in 2018 and Lamar Jackson is a freak, and of course Harbaugh is a genius (no sarcasm intended.)
Will Suggs be back (as what he was)? Their geezer stud free safety is already gone, and they're trying to keep Brown, Mosely, Crabtree, Max Williams, and:
Lamar Jackson is no Baker Mayfield.
The Bengals...well everybody else has that already, so I'll skip it:
In 2019, Lamar Jackson will leap tall buildings with single bounds (and might even not get hurt). But Baker Mayfield will throw for a ton more yardage and touchdowns and third down conversions and big plays and...
Big Ben will kick ass, despite the loss of AB (the Steelers do have serious young depth at WR). But can he stay healthy? And no...he won't be shrugging off tacklers vs the Browns in 2019. And his running backs won't run all over this defense either.
*I am assuming that John Dorsey will upgrade DT and linebacker significantly, and understand that Wilks's zone-oriented defensive scheme is harder on the run*
The Browns are still the youngest team in this Division, and in general can be expected to improve the most talent-wise (DUUUHHH).
If you think what Freddie Kitchens did was a fluke, or that opposing DC's will "figure him out", you don't grok football. If you think they'll "figure out" and stifle Baker Mayfield, you're just plain dumb. If you don't admit that the Cleveland Browns are the most talented team in the AFC North, you need your head examined.
I have had some fun, freindly debates with Ravens and Steelers fans (the Bengals fans are too negative):
Who is the best quarterback in the Division?
The Steelers fans say it's Big Ben, and I can't blame them. That guy might be a Hall of Famer. BUT, these fans aren't sure that he'll be as good in 2019 as he was in 2018, and are even less confident that he won't miss time with injuries.
NOBODY says the best AFC North quarterback is a Bengal or a Raven.
The Ravens fans think they have the best Head Coach, but admit that Freddie Kitchens and his new staff are frightening.
When I point at these guys and say "buckle up--the Browns got a quarterback now and you guys are in trouble!", they take me seriously. No eye-rolls, or indulgent smiles.
They fear Mayfield, Chubb, Njoku, and DORSEY.
The Browns will win the AFC North in 2019.
I HAVE SPOKEN.
I hadn't known that Vernon had that bad of a high ankle sprain (recall that Myles Garrett had the same injury).
I've had one of those, people, and believe you me, it takes a long time to fully heal. I never played football for a living, but I can guarantee you that there's no way Vernon's ankle was 100% when he came back (after 5 weeks).
His ankle was almost certainly braced and heavily taped (partially immobilized). The last six games of his 2018 season likely reflects most accurately just how good this guy is.
Olivier Vernon fits Dorsey's 4-3 Defensive End profile (though not physically)...
The NFL game is evolving: Run/pass options, scrambling quarterbacks, and quicker, shorter passes. If you're still trying to get your defensive ends around behind the offensive tackles, you're going to get gashed, repeatedly.
From the start, John Dorsey's free agent and drafted defensive ends are good against the run as well as the pass, and shrimps need not apply--no matter how fast they are.
Sure, Von Miller and other EDGE guys are still getting a lot of sacks, but they are stunting inside and up the gut more often, and they're getting some freebies as quarterbacks flee penetrating defensive tackles as well. This includes Myles Garrett.
Mary Kay is right that Ogbah is probably "available" for the right price, but he's about equally as likely to stick around.
As Dorsey said, Gregg Williams used Ogbah inside a lot in 2018, and he probably never fully recovered from his own early-season injury. Dorsey didn't draft him, but he fits Dorsey's profile perfectly.
...well it is getting crowded at DE now, and Dorsey drafted one and signed one, so...(Dorsey holding up his cellphone).
I'm much more excited about Olivier Vernon than I was yesterday. He had his ten-sack season as a Defensive End. As a linebacker, he may only have rushed the passer 50% of the time (wild guess, but probably 66% tops).
Olivier Vernon, at 6'2", 261(?) lbs doesn't have ideal length, bulk, explosion or speed for a defensive end, but he's freakishly strong and maxes out his leverage advantage.
Unlike Ogbah, he's much different from Myles Garrett, so Steve Wilks can move the two around to find the best matchups for each.
Vernon's experience as a (actually pretty good) linebacker means he can still stand up or drop to mess up the "pass" part of Run-Pass Options.
Chris Smith and Chad Thomas are more like Garrett (and Ogbah).
Wait! A couple weeks ago John Dorsey mentioned "length" as one of the things he wanted in defensive linemen! Vernon is 6'2"! Oh no oh no he's going insane!
Nah. Vernon has proven himself. John Dorsey will take the short guy over the tall guy if he's better than the tall guy. (We used to call that common sense, back in the day.)
And Steve Wilks can move Vernon around and change his fronts with him.
Elliott Kennel wrote a great article on the whole alleged (probably fabricated) OBJ trade offer Soap Opera.
Elliott zeroes in on how OBJ is more trouble than he's worth, and this fact (of which I had no idea):
Even in a trade, OBJ's dead money would cost the Giants a fortune.
I love this writer: "Because they're insane, the Giants think OBJ is worth a first round pick--" (I paraphrased).
No doubt Elliott was as irked as I was at the almost certainly fictional report of Gettleman laughing at the notion that Zeitler, Ogbah, and another player (probably Duke) could come anywhere near OBJ's value.
...and OBJ's contract is a case study in how NOT to structure a deal. It's loaded with guaranteed moneys on the back end! It makes a trade very difficult, and just cutting the player far too expensive.
OBJ OWNS the Giants!!! Very, very, very DUMB. Including the Mitchell Schwartze release, find me a move Sashi Brown made that was in that dumbass zip code--I dare ya!
Elliott Kennel, you da man!
Nobody should be surprised that Darren Fells (or anybody else over 30...and Duke...and Ogbah) is in John Dorsey's show room window.
You people never seem to get the difference between being "open for business" and trying to trade players.
In most cases, Dorsey is quite willing to stick with any of these players into 2019 if nobody offers enough for them.
Skyler Carlin predicts that the Browns will win the AFC North in 2019. Nothing new here. Skyler cites all the obvious stuff I have, repeatedly...what the hell I'll repeat it some more, since a lot of people still don't get it:
The guys on NFL Radio worship the Steelers almost as much as they do the Patriots. "They'll be fine".
No, they won't! Roethsenberger is 75 in quarterback years, they still haven't fixed their secondary (or replaced Shazier), and if you say "next man up" in re Antonio Brown I wish I could punch you in the face.
And I bet some of those guys will pick the Ravens to win the Division instead, because they had the best defense in the NFL in 2018 and Lamar Jackson is a freak, and of course Harbaugh is a genius (no sarcasm intended.)
Will Suggs be back (as what he was)? Their geezer stud free safety is already gone, and they're trying to keep Brown, Mosely, Crabtree, Max Williams, and:
Lamar Jackson is no Baker Mayfield.
The Bengals...well everybody else has that already, so I'll skip it:
In 2019, Lamar Jackson will leap tall buildings with single bounds (and might even not get hurt). But Baker Mayfield will throw for a ton more yardage and touchdowns and third down conversions and big plays and...
Big Ben will kick ass, despite the loss of AB (the Steelers do have serious young depth at WR). But can he stay healthy? And no...he won't be shrugging off tacklers vs the Browns in 2019. And his running backs won't run all over this defense either.
*I am assuming that John Dorsey will upgrade DT and linebacker significantly, and understand that Wilks's zone-oriented defensive scheme is harder on the run*
The Browns are still the youngest team in this Division, and in general can be expected to improve the most talent-wise (DUUUHHH).
If you think what Freddie Kitchens did was a fluke, or that opposing DC's will "figure him out", you don't grok football. If you think they'll "figure out" and stifle Baker Mayfield, you're just plain dumb. If you don't admit that the Cleveland Browns are the most talented team in the AFC North, you need your head examined.
I have had some fun, freindly debates with Ravens and Steelers fans (the Bengals fans are too negative):
Who is the best quarterback in the Division?
The Steelers fans say it's Big Ben, and I can't blame them. That guy might be a Hall of Famer. BUT, these fans aren't sure that he'll be as good in 2019 as he was in 2018, and are even less confident that he won't miss time with injuries.
NOBODY says the best AFC North quarterback is a Bengal or a Raven.
The Ravens fans think they have the best Head Coach, but admit that Freddie Kitchens and his new staff are frightening.
When I point at these guys and say "buckle up--the Browns got a quarterback now and you guys are in trouble!", they take me seriously. No eye-rolls, or indulgent smiles.
They fear Mayfield, Chubb, Njoku, and DORSEY.
The Browns will win the AFC North in 2019.
I HAVE SPOKEN.
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