The Browns have Brock Osweiler on the roster. If they trade him, or release him, they can get out from under some of his rediculous salary, but...he's on the roster for now, right?
Well, Jim Miller says Brock Osweiler is the best quarterback on the Browns roster. He's wrong, of course: Being 6'8" and having a big arm doesn't make you better than a decisive little sharpshooter like Kessler, but I get the big, strong-armed Miller's point.
So...Geno Smith now? My God it never stops! He's better than Osweiler how? Ok now you want to release Osweiler. Somebody pays him 5 mil a year. Then sign Smith for like 6 mil/year really?
Osweiler won't be released unless Hue Jackson has no hope for him. Even stupid blabbermouth tweets from Browns staffers are presumptive on this point. Brock is the bird in hand. John Elway offered him 13 million to stick around. He sucked in Houston, but was good in Denver T H I N K willya?
Plus, Geno Smith deserved his broken jaw! I wonder if he ever did pay that guy back. Probably not. He might have matured and changed since then, but at that time he was despicable, and no doubt despised by his teammates.
At least all Osweiler did was get in a fight with his Head Coach! Yeah ok I wonder about that, but he didn't break anything anyway, and I can't picture Hue Jackson duking it out with his quarterback (even though he sure looks like he could. I want to know where that scar came from.)
A veteran backup is desirable, but not mandatory. And if the Browns do sign one, he should be better than Brock Osweiler. This is common sense and basic arithmatic, ok? T H I N K.
Now, I hope Bill will come down on Garopollo, because if he doesn't, no deal. If he doesn't, it means more than everybody except me thinks. It means he's preparing for Tom Brady's inevitable demise.
In this scenario, Pat Kirwan would be surprised (no franchise tag). Bill would put a first round tender on Jimmy. The 2018 QB crop is expected to be abundant. Teams would try to sign Garopollo, but think about this:
Would you rather have to pay your new quarterback 18 mil/year, or 6 mil/year? Bill has the right to match any offer, and those offers would be lower due to the market.
Jacoby Brissett would have another year to develop, and Bill would have a better bead on him. If Brissett looked good, Bill could cash out for a first round pick. If not, he could at least keep Jimmy G a little cheaper by matching the highest offer in a depressed market.
Why would he do that? Grow up. Father Time is undefeated. Tom Brady expects to play til he's 45, and a lot of people believe him. Bill Belichick is not one of them.
And remember, you heard this here: Bill might even TRADE Tom Brady after 2018. Spare me the pitch forks and burning stakes and straight jackets! Bill loves Tom, but thinks with his brain. I also think he'll want to erase any doubt: He wants to win a Superbowl without Tom Brady before he retires.
But I digress: Garopollo is iffy, and the Browns MUST find a franchise quarterback.
Greg Cosell thinks Mitch Trubisky can be a successful quarterback "in the right system" eventually, but not a franchise guy. Deshaun Watson's alarmingly low velocity has forced me to jump off his bandwagon. Kizer seems to be the consensus-best long-term physical talent.
Cosell seems utterly terrified by Mahomes, as despite his irrefutable talent, he is a wildman. If he succeeds, it will take time and extensive re-training, and he still might not have the wiring to be an NFL quarterback.
Cosell likes Davis Webb (who Hue Jackson coached in the Senior Bowl) a lot.
Webb checks all the size and arm-strength boxes, along with the starting experience boxes. Greg's knocks on him approximated those of the more athletic Trubisky: His lower body in general, and footwork in particular.
Mock drafts projecting Trubisky as available at 12 are optimistic. Webb, on the other hand, should be available in the second, or even the third round.
Here's the biggest reason: Trubisky has a much higher completion percentage and efficiency rating. Webb completed around 62% of his passes, and did not show much progress over the course of his career. He was steady, but did not "grow".
Of course, he started out at Texas A and M. Injuries and Patrick Mahomes conspired to cost him his starting job. With his degree in hand, he transferred to Cal, where he took over for Jared Goff, and proceeded to match or beat most of his records.
His 62% completion percentage didn't seem to trouble Greg Cosell. This might have something to do with the fact that Cal's top SIX (6 VI) recievers from 2015 left the team.
Cosell is one expert, albeit a big one. His opinion of Trubisky goes against the grain, as most give Mitch a much higher cieling. His opinion on Webb is conversely extra-high.
Here's the upshot: Hue Jackson coached Webb in the Senior Bowl. He did great all week, and in the game. He is the son of a highschool coach, and studies hard.
I strongly suspect that if Trubisky doesn't last to 12, and Hue doesn't love Kizer or Mahomes, Davis Webb will be the guy. (Maybe even if they DO land Jimmy G!)
Mahomes isn't the longshot many think he is, either. Hue Jackson's history as a college quarterback is apparently top secret for some reason, but I do know that he was a Josh Cribbs type scrambler and improviser. He might well think that he could turn this "wildman" into something, in a way that nobody else could.
That's an educated guess: I don't know.
The reality is that unless Garopollo is landed, any drafted quarterback will be a project who will not start in 2017 at all.
Now: Everybody has decided that to trade down from Myles Garrett would be a lynchable offense. I say that's idiocy.
The Cleveland Browns are loaded with edge-rushers, including Ogbah, whose combine numbers aren't far off Garrett's. Nor does Gregg Williams neccessarily rely on edge-pressure.
Garrett is the best player in this draft. But he's not sacred, or priceless, ok? The obviously very pragmatic Sashi Brown could make a Belichickian killing here.
Lots of moving parts here: Kyle Shanahan in San Fran just signed Bryan Hoyer, and his contract clearly gives him abundant time. He has the inside track on Kirk Cousins, who is on his second franchise deal, and has made no secret of his determination to get the hell out of Washington.
I do not believe he will draft Mitch Trubisky.
Buffalo re-signed the great Tyrod Taylor. The Bears or Jags might draft Trubisky, but maybe not. Based on my latest research, Trubes is sliding. He's being compared to Andy Dalton, albeit with more upside, and nobody expects him to be an effective starter in 2017. These regimes are under pressure.
Once again, I default to the Tennessee Titans, who are on the verge of contention, and who don't mind doing deals, and for whome a Myles Garrett could win their division for them.
What might they cough up to move up four slots for Myles Garrett?
Per the value chart courtesy of Walterfootball.com, first overall is worth 3,000 points, and fifth is worth 1,700.
This chart only covers the first round, and Walter Football synopsizes that a move from third overall to first overall costs a second and third round pick.
The second round pick in 2017 is a given here, but the Titans won't gut their whole draft, even for Myles Garrett. Fortunately, Sashi Brown can wait. He can settle for the Titans 2018 first and third round picks too.
If you would rather have Myles Garrett than maybe Mitch Trubisky and all this other stuff, you need to get the stars out of your eyes. You don't build a team one player at a time. You build it with a quarterback, and 2-5 players at a time.
...ok but I'll settle for just Myles Garrett if you twist my arm...
THIS JUST IN: Peter Smith scouted Mahomes and sold me on him again. I'm so confused. One thing I do know is that he's the most realistic target at twelve.
Peter is deep and thorough, as always. Big Twelve quarterbacks have a poor history in the NFL, and so do those with losing records since John Elway.
But that's the thing here: Mahomes reminds me of John Elway!
The other thing here is that the quarterbacks who failed were generally rushed into action as rookies. Elway sucked and was being called a bust as a rookie, for that matter. Of the quarterbacks Pete listed, only John Elway was anything like Mahomes. Only he could make all the throws this guy can.
And Peter GETS that the Browns won't be contenders in 2017 anyway, so it would make sense to keep Mahomes on the bench, doing millions of reps retraining his muscle memory and practicing pro reads, before putting him on the field.
Greg Cosell is right to be afraid of him, but damn...Elway...Hue Jackson...I'm on the Mahomes wagon and that's final until I change my mind again.
Another horrific mock draft drafts a receiver at twelve. Yeah a really good one, but it's still insane. Not the amazing tight end. Not a Joe Thomas heir apparant. Not a super-safety, or a quarterback. A wide receiver.
James Wright was a great under-the-radar signing. He's a fantastic special teamer. Maybe they'll experiment with him in the secondary, as apparently he's not a good receiver, but has ideal physical tools.
Tuesday, March 14, 2017
Sunday, March 12, 2017
Pryor, Sashi Brown, Analytics, and the Browns
Mary Kay: The signing of Kenny Britt probably had no effect whatsoever on the Browns offer to Terrelle Pryor. Do you assume they'd reduce it because they have a quota on big tall guys or something?
UPDATE: Apparently MKC was right: The Browns did indeed...inexplicably...reduce Pryor's offer. Shades of Mitchell Schwartze.
Pryor took less money from the Skins for a one year deal for one reason: Kirk Cousins. The rest of the NFL is even more blockheaded than the Browns, and universally lowballed him.
So he took the one year deal with a terrific quarterback in the wake of his losing his top two receivers. He is going to SHOW them, and then make somebody PAY.
And I don't blame him. I just hope he doesn't get hurt. That's the risk he takes.
Sashi might have had a better bead on the market than Terrelle or I did, but I think he still should have offered a ten mil base and incentives. 14 million was too much, but Pryor might have stuck around for that offer.
PFF wrote a nice article comparing Britt to Pryor. Britt played for bad quarterbacks too. Britt was better after the catch, and got his usual 14.5-16 yards per-catch. But stats aside, Britt is a couple inches shorter, and runs much sharper routes.
They're not even close to being the same.
Josh Gordon was not one of the best wide receivers in the NFL. He was THE best. Sashi would be insane not to let him stick around until he screws up again (which I bet he doesn't. Again. Double or nothing. Again).
Pat Kirwan warns anybody who might trade for him, he's one mistake away from being out of football. That's true, but why should the Browns care? His salary is negligable and he's already here!
Gordon and Britt, with Coleman in the slot? You kidding me!?
Think about that. Hue Jackson essentially says, good teams make good quarterbacks. Cody Kessler is no Aaron Rodgers, but behind this offensive line, with these running backs, and those receivers plus Gary Barnidge, the resemblance could become uncanny.
Not that with two concussions, a so-so arm, and not much size Kessler is expected to become a real franchise guy. Not that they don't want Jimmy G bad, or won't draft one (or two).
No, you can't wait til next year. You can't expect to beat Kyle Shanahan to Cousins, or an untraded Garopollo even hitting the market. You can't count on three or four franchise quarterbacks ripening on the mystical quarterback tree. You can't count on losing more than eight games, or of finding a trade partner to make a move. You can't count on magic crystals or rabbits feet. You have to try to find your quarterback every year until you have him!
Yeah yeah Bill won't deal for less than first overall and another first too yeah right. I'll start believing that three minutes after the first quarterback is drafted this year, but not until. This is one rumor that probably did start at the top!
What's with Pat Kirwan and the franchise tag? Bill might pay Jimmy over 20 million in 2018 to collect even more splinters? Pat wants to franchise somebody on all 32 teams. "You could franchise him" is Pat's catch-phrase.
Now, the Browns can ignore the offensive line and yes, wide receiver in the draft. They can get a real tight end, a quarterback or two, Garrett, a big...
Why do you guys keep zeroing in on the SHORT cornerbacks for crying out loud? For that matter, short safeties too! The Browns cornerbacks don't suck! They're just SHORT, dammit! Haden had TWO groin-pulls don't tell me he's done.
You think they need slot cornerbacks now? Stop it you're killing me!
Let's stick with tight ends. Now you want Engram? 6'3" 234? Why? We're eyeball deep in move tight ends! Only Telfer can block in-line and he can't catch! And already you want to replace Seth DeValve? Spazz!
Of the real tight ends, OJ Howard is the best, but might not make it to 12, let alone the second round.
The other two are Shaheen and Butt, who could go late due to level of competition and a torn acl respectively. I've read conflicting reports on Butt's blocking. Generally, he's called a good blocker. Shaneen sure should be, at 6'7", 277 lbs.
Physicly, Shaheen compares to Gronk. I think he clocked 4.7-something, and he's a basketball player. These are real tight ends, not pumped up wide receivers like Engram and Rodney DeValvefield. See the difference? The Browns should land one of these guys to add weight to the running game and be a big bail-out target.
Kessler should have a lot to work with. Yeah Kessler I said. Or Jimmy.
Why don't people understand this: League rules mandate that teams spend 85% of their salary caps. There's a rollover factor, so you can sort of depreciate, but the Browns still have over 55 million left. They can't possibly spend much more in the second and third waves of free agency or on further extentions.
Who CARES how much they spent on a second round pick? It's irrelevant! They HAVE TO spend the money!
Bill Polian needs to check himself. His bias against "money ball" is just over the top. His analysis is superficial and reactive.
I don't like losing Pryor, but Sashi has been doing a great job overall this off season by any objective standard.
UPDATE: Apparently MKC was right: The Browns did indeed...inexplicably...reduce Pryor's offer. Shades of Mitchell Schwartze.
Pryor took less money from the Skins for a one year deal for one reason: Kirk Cousins. The rest of the NFL is even more blockheaded than the Browns, and universally lowballed him.
So he took the one year deal with a terrific quarterback in the wake of his losing his top two receivers. He is going to SHOW them, and then make somebody PAY.
And I don't blame him. I just hope he doesn't get hurt. That's the risk he takes.
Sashi might have had a better bead on the market than Terrelle or I did, but I think he still should have offered a ten mil base and incentives. 14 million was too much, but Pryor might have stuck around for that offer.
PFF wrote a nice article comparing Britt to Pryor. Britt played for bad quarterbacks too. Britt was better after the catch, and got his usual 14.5-16 yards per-catch. But stats aside, Britt is a couple inches shorter, and runs much sharper routes.
They're not even close to being the same.
Josh Gordon was not one of the best wide receivers in the NFL. He was THE best. Sashi would be insane not to let him stick around until he screws up again (which I bet he doesn't. Again. Double or nothing. Again).
Pat Kirwan warns anybody who might trade for him, he's one mistake away from being out of football. That's true, but why should the Browns care? His salary is negligable and he's already here!
Gordon and Britt, with Coleman in the slot? You kidding me!?
Think about that. Hue Jackson essentially says, good teams make good quarterbacks. Cody Kessler is no Aaron Rodgers, but behind this offensive line, with these running backs, and those receivers plus Gary Barnidge, the resemblance could become uncanny.
Not that with two concussions, a so-so arm, and not much size Kessler is expected to become a real franchise guy. Not that they don't want Jimmy G bad, or won't draft one (or two).
No, you can't wait til next year. You can't expect to beat Kyle Shanahan to Cousins, or an untraded Garopollo even hitting the market. You can't count on three or four franchise quarterbacks ripening on the mystical quarterback tree. You can't count on losing more than eight games, or of finding a trade partner to make a move. You can't count on magic crystals or rabbits feet. You have to try to find your quarterback every year until you have him!
Yeah yeah Bill won't deal for less than first overall and another first too yeah right. I'll start believing that three minutes after the first quarterback is drafted this year, but not until. This is one rumor that probably did start at the top!
What's with Pat Kirwan and the franchise tag? Bill might pay Jimmy over 20 million in 2018 to collect even more splinters? Pat wants to franchise somebody on all 32 teams. "You could franchise him" is Pat's catch-phrase.
Now, the Browns can ignore the offensive line and yes, wide receiver in the draft. They can get a real tight end, a quarterback or two, Garrett, a big...
Why do you guys keep zeroing in on the SHORT cornerbacks for crying out loud? For that matter, short safeties too! The Browns cornerbacks don't suck! They're just SHORT, dammit! Haden had TWO groin-pulls don't tell me he's done.
You think they need slot cornerbacks now? Stop it you're killing me!
Let's stick with tight ends. Now you want Engram? 6'3" 234? Why? We're eyeball deep in move tight ends! Only Telfer can block in-line and he can't catch! And already you want to replace Seth DeValve? Spazz!
Of the real tight ends, OJ Howard is the best, but might not make it to 12, let alone the second round.
The other two are Shaheen and Butt, who could go late due to level of competition and a torn acl respectively. I've read conflicting reports on Butt's blocking. Generally, he's called a good blocker. Shaneen sure should be, at 6'7", 277 lbs.
Physicly, Shaheen compares to Gronk. I think he clocked 4.7-something, and he's a basketball player. These are real tight ends, not pumped up wide receivers like Engram and Rodney DeValvefield. See the difference? The Browns should land one of these guys to add weight to the running game and be a big bail-out target.
Kessler should have a lot to work with. Yeah Kessler I said. Or Jimmy.
Why don't people understand this: League rules mandate that teams spend 85% of their salary caps. There's a rollover factor, so you can sort of depreciate, but the Browns still have over 55 million left. They can't possibly spend much more in the second and third waves of free agency or on further extentions.
Who CARES how much they spent on a second round pick? It's irrelevant! They HAVE TO spend the money!
Bill Polian needs to check himself. His bias against "money ball" is just over the top. His analysis is superficial and reactive.
I don't like losing Pryor, but Sashi has been doing a great job overall this off season by any objective standard.
Thursday, March 9, 2017
Browns Free Agent Fenzy: So Far So Good!
With all due respect to Buzz Kill Bill Polian, Brock Osweiler's 16 mil salary need not accompany the player in a trade. Bill knows this, but was so fixated on making fun of the money ball guys that he wasn't being an adult.
The Browns could offer to pay half, or even more, of the 16 mil salary for any trade partner, thus knocking that team's cap hit down to backup money.
"Why would anybody do that?" Well A) the Browns are out 16 mil as-is. Even if they paid 11 million, they'd be out 5 million less and have yet another draft pick. B) While nobody thinks of Osweiler as a good starter any more, he is a viable backup, with upside, and starting experience. To make sure they sign him, under contract (the last two years of his contract are not guaranteed by the way), without negotiation, a fifth or sixth round pick might be worth it.
Bill thinks Osweiler sucks. He cites the one and only reason the Texans lost to the Patriots in the playoffs: HIM.
But Jim Miller has a different opinion. Osweiler played well in Gary Kubiak's offense in Denver. Bill O'Brien's offense puts a lot more on the quarterback.
In Denver, Osweiler bemoaned his "lack of discretion" under Kubiak, and was happy to go to Houston, where he could have more control over things.
Miller feels he wasn't ready or well-suited to this complexity. He says Kubiak's system is much simpler for a quarterback. Jim says Hue Jackson can bring back an enhanced version of Denver Brock.
I do believe that the second round draft pick was the real prize in this deal, but also that Osweiler might be insurance. Not great insurance, mind you-but what if Miller is right?
I do think Garopollo is the real target. Instantly establishing what promises to be a dominant offensive line, and landing Big Kenny Britt was at least partly to help Jimmy and his agent take this team seriously...and the second round pick to make the Sith Lord do the same.
If the Browns need to release Osweiler, then they just bought a couple of really expensive draft picks, will still have plenty of cap space, and the dead money will live again in 2018. Indeed, per the rules, they needed to find ways to spend more cap money this year anyway.
This first day was well-done. The big money is drying up, and Terrelle Pryor is still out there. If he wanted to stick around before, how about now with quarterbacks who will have more time, and Kenny Britt across the field from him?
Polian says that the Browns may be the only team ready to do more than a one-year deal for him, as no deal was in place at the deadline, and there is good wide receiver depth in this draft.
He could still be leaving, but his return is more likely now than it was this morning.
The Browns could offer to pay half, or even more, of the 16 mil salary for any trade partner, thus knocking that team's cap hit down to backup money.
"Why would anybody do that?" Well A) the Browns are out 16 mil as-is. Even if they paid 11 million, they'd be out 5 million less and have yet another draft pick. B) While nobody thinks of Osweiler as a good starter any more, he is a viable backup, with upside, and starting experience. To make sure they sign him, under contract (the last two years of his contract are not guaranteed by the way), without negotiation, a fifth or sixth round pick might be worth it.
Bill thinks Osweiler sucks. He cites the one and only reason the Texans lost to the Patriots in the playoffs: HIM.
But Jim Miller has a different opinion. Osweiler played well in Gary Kubiak's offense in Denver. Bill O'Brien's offense puts a lot more on the quarterback.
In Denver, Osweiler bemoaned his "lack of discretion" under Kubiak, and was happy to go to Houston, where he could have more control over things.
Miller feels he wasn't ready or well-suited to this complexity. He says Kubiak's system is much simpler for a quarterback. Jim says Hue Jackson can bring back an enhanced version of Denver Brock.
I do believe that the second round draft pick was the real prize in this deal, but also that Osweiler might be insurance. Not great insurance, mind you-but what if Miller is right?
I do think Garopollo is the real target. Instantly establishing what promises to be a dominant offensive line, and landing Big Kenny Britt was at least partly to help Jimmy and his agent take this team seriously...and the second round pick to make the Sith Lord do the same.
If the Browns need to release Osweiler, then they just bought a couple of really expensive draft picks, will still have plenty of cap space, and the dead money will live again in 2018. Indeed, per the rules, they needed to find ways to spend more cap money this year anyway.
This first day was well-done. The big money is drying up, and Terrelle Pryor is still out there. If he wanted to stick around before, how about now with quarterbacks who will have more time, and Kenny Britt across the field from him?
Polian says that the Browns may be the only team ready to do more than a one-year deal for him, as no deal was in place at the deadline, and there is good wide receiver depth in this draft.
He could still be leaving, but his return is more likely now than it was this morning.
Tuesday, March 7, 2017
Comments on Cleveland Browns Comments
1: Kamar Aiken is only 27, and is coming off a mediocre season due to getting pushed down the depth chart (so he won't cost a fortune). He's really good!
But who told you that he, and not Corey Coleman, would play in the slot?
2: I just saw a mock draft that was even dumber than Bucky Brooks'.
This guy drafts Garrett number one. He talks about how Ogbah, another physical freak, would wreak havoc from the other side...then he drafts another edge-rusher 12th overall!
He explains that his own preference would be to draft Mahomes, but that he has to do what he thinks the Browns will do. He drafts a third edge-rusher later, too.
I guess this guy just heard somewhere that Gregg Williams likes pressure, decided that meant edge-rushers, and that everybody on the current roster sucks, and remembered how they drafted four wide receivers last year (ergo they will overdraft one position group again). This we call a "non-sequetor".
All I can say is wow.
3: The Browns must resist the temptation to overpay a 33 year old free agent receiver? What temptation? You teach special needs kids, right?
4: Garrett and Garopollo a dream scenario? Obviously.
5: Bill wants two first round picks for him? Oh well that's too much let's move on (Kidding! Time for a counter-offer duh).
6: The Browns offered Pryor 8 mil? It's Mueller and sounds credible. It's kind of irksome, unless Sashi is ready to up the ante.
I'm sick of hearing about his rawness and rounded off routes. You don't pay a guy for what he has done, but what he can and will do. Pryor is on the rise. If he went over a thousand yards in his first full season, what might he do in 2018?
Pluto was concerned over his yards after catch. Easy, Terry. A whole bunch of his catches were on the sidelines, and coming back towards the quarterback after the quarterback held the damn ball too damn long again. They rarely hit him with any space around him. He was their crutch and their babysitter. He was so good he spoiled them. Not his fault.
Pryor is WORTH over ten million. I hope the other teams are blockheads too, so we can keep him here. 8 mil is a joke.
7: Chris Pokorney lists five free agents the Browns should target, and I can't quibble, including on the 29 year old (but cheap) Nick Fairley.
But he was wrong about the Browns ignoring safety in 2016. They drafted one and signed one, and the injured rookie Derrick Kindred showed promise.
But the guys Chris targets are really good, so I'll forgive him.
7: Here is a pretty bad article on Garopollo trade talks. Bill has already said he wants two number one picks. It's possible he could get them. From some dumbass not named Brown.
But the writer seems to think that Bill will say "take it or leave it". He won't. He may well accept the best offer he can get, and twelvth overall and change could be the best offer.
Step away from the Belichick altar, and put the candle down. Bill doesn't have as much leverage as you think he does.
And step away from the Jimmy G altar too: Two number ones? Yes and a number two, and pay him 26 mil/year guaranteed. Throw in Ogbah too! Here, Bill, take Hue's playbook too...and my daughter...
Thank God this guy doesn't run the team. These guys are wearing me out.
But who told you that he, and not Corey Coleman, would play in the slot?
2: I just saw a mock draft that was even dumber than Bucky Brooks'.
This guy drafts Garrett number one. He talks about how Ogbah, another physical freak, would wreak havoc from the other side...then he drafts another edge-rusher 12th overall!
He explains that his own preference would be to draft Mahomes, but that he has to do what he thinks the Browns will do. He drafts a third edge-rusher later, too.
I guess this guy just heard somewhere that Gregg Williams likes pressure, decided that meant edge-rushers, and that everybody on the current roster sucks, and remembered how they drafted four wide receivers last year (ergo they will overdraft one position group again). This we call a "non-sequetor".
All I can say is wow.
3: The Browns must resist the temptation to overpay a 33 year old free agent receiver? What temptation? You teach special needs kids, right?
4: Garrett and Garopollo a dream scenario? Obviously.
5: Bill wants two first round picks for him? Oh well that's too much let's move on (Kidding! Time for a counter-offer duh).
6: The Browns offered Pryor 8 mil? It's Mueller and sounds credible. It's kind of irksome, unless Sashi is ready to up the ante.
I'm sick of hearing about his rawness and rounded off routes. You don't pay a guy for what he has done, but what he can and will do. Pryor is on the rise. If he went over a thousand yards in his first full season, what might he do in 2018?
Pluto was concerned over his yards after catch. Easy, Terry. A whole bunch of his catches were on the sidelines, and coming back towards the quarterback after the quarterback held the damn ball too damn long again. They rarely hit him with any space around him. He was their crutch and their babysitter. He was so good he spoiled them. Not his fault.
Pryor is WORTH over ten million. I hope the other teams are blockheads too, so we can keep him here. 8 mil is a joke.
7: Chris Pokorney lists five free agents the Browns should target, and I can't quibble, including on the 29 year old (but cheap) Nick Fairley.
But he was wrong about the Browns ignoring safety in 2016. They drafted one and signed one, and the injured rookie Derrick Kindred showed promise.
But the guys Chris targets are really good, so I'll forgive him.
7: Here is a pretty bad article on Garopollo trade talks. Bill has already said he wants two number one picks. It's possible he could get them. From some dumbass not named Brown.
But the writer seems to think that Bill will say "take it or leave it". He won't. He may well accept the best offer he can get, and twelvth overall and change could be the best offer.
Step away from the Belichick altar, and put the candle down. Bill doesn't have as much leverage as you think he does.
And step away from the Jimmy G altar too: Two number ones? Yes and a number two, and pay him 26 mil/year guaranteed. Throw in Ogbah too! Here, Bill, take Hue's playbook too...and my daughter...
Thank God this guy doesn't run the team. These guys are wearing me out.
Monday, March 6, 2017
Myles Garrett, Quarterbacks, and the Cleveland Browns
Everybody says Myles Garrett's amazing workouts make his selection first overall mandatory, including Terry Pluto. I guess it does. Even if they want to draft Trubisky, the upheaval that move would cause would be unprecedented.
And Garrett truly is a game-changing freak.
The Tyrod Taylor stuff is just noise. Rhona LaCanfora invented another Coach-front office power struggle and projected his own opinion into the Browns interest in him.
It's possible that the Browns might pursue him, at a specific price-point, but the only advantages he has over Cody Kessler are physical toughness, his legs, and a stronger arm. I know that sounds like a lot, but Kessler's accuracy and timing are more important for Hue Jackson.
Taylor is probably not a franchise quarterback, but will probably get paid like one. Sashi Brown won't be the one to make that mistake. It amazes me that anybody at all still finds this guy credible.
Adam Shefter is rarely wrong, except he might be this time about Garopollo's availability. Bill Belichick never closes the door on a potential trade, especially when the spectre of spending over 22% of his salary cap on quarterbacks looms.
If Bill holds onto Jimmy, he could put a first round tender on him as I've suggested, but I'm not certain Jimmy would have to sign it, and I am certain he would be very upset about it.
This would also restrict Bill's compensation to one first round pick, in what is expected to be a strong 2018 quarterback draft. By making a move now, he could get more, sooner, and for sure.
He WILL listen to offers, because not to do so would be downright stupid, and unless somebody offers him their top pick, the Browns number 12 and change might do the trick.
Thomas Moore is, methinks, overly skeptical about Jimmy Garopollo, but did cite three pre-draft scouting reports which were more or less positive. Notably, the CBS Sports one said that he should be a good starter in two or three years.
Tom probably doesn't listen to NFL Radio as I do, because Mike Mayock and Rick Newheisel like Jimmy a lot, and I'm not sure, but I bet so does Cosell.
The fact that he was the fourth quarterback taken in a draft three years ago, and that a lot of teams passed him up twice, is irrelevant. Mayock at that time had nearly identical grades on Garopollo to those he has on Mitch Trubisky now. Kyle Shanahan has him number two behind Carr.
A bunch of teams passed up Prescott, Cousins, and Wilson, too. How many teams passed up Aaron Rodgers? Ryan Leaf almost went before Peyton Manning. It means nothing.
NOTE TO SASHI: Not re-signing Terrelle Pryor might make Jimmy refuse to negotiate with you.
The other rumored trades are unlikely. You are all wrong about Cody Kessler, and about what Hue thinks of him.
I have to admit, Garrett would change the whole defense. I still say defensive end is not a position of need, but Garrett is just in a class of his own. Either Ogbah or Nassib would have more success, as protections would always slide away from them. Danny Shelton would also have only one guy to manhandle more often. Blitzers would come in unblocked more often, and offenses couldn't even try to run Garrett over.
Defensive end would be extremely deep. Gregg could "overrun the perimeter" in the fourth quarter. He could deploy four passrushing defensive ends now and then (wow).
Alternatives at quarterback aren't that limited. If you listen to Mayock and others, they will tell you, in plain language: These guys are talented, with franchise potential. They're being downgraded by as much as 30 slots because they are not ready to start in 2017.
In fact, Trubisky is ranked first only because he has taken a lot of snaps under center, and has played inside the pocket more, so he's better prepared than the other guys.
Mayock feels that DeShone Kizer has the most upside. Others think it's Watson. Mahones is amazing, too. All have the height, size, and arm talent Hue wants.
Since the plan was to keep the rookie on the bench for a year anyway, a quarterback with franchise potential should still be there at 12 (if it's not Jimmy G).
If you think the analytics guys would never trade up, you clearly still don't understand this stuff. For greater long-term value, they will trade up. A quarterback represents disproportionate long term value. Analytics is about value.
So yeah, ok. I'm willing to settle for Myles Garrett, I guess...unless there's another Mike Ditka out there...never say never to a trade offer! Ok Garrett or some fool's entire draft, ok?
And Garrett truly is a game-changing freak.
The Tyrod Taylor stuff is just noise. Rhona LaCanfora invented another Coach-front office power struggle and projected his own opinion into the Browns interest in him.
It's possible that the Browns might pursue him, at a specific price-point, but the only advantages he has over Cody Kessler are physical toughness, his legs, and a stronger arm. I know that sounds like a lot, but Kessler's accuracy and timing are more important for Hue Jackson.
Taylor is probably not a franchise quarterback, but will probably get paid like one. Sashi Brown won't be the one to make that mistake. It amazes me that anybody at all still finds this guy credible.
Adam Shefter is rarely wrong, except he might be this time about Garopollo's availability. Bill Belichick never closes the door on a potential trade, especially when the spectre of spending over 22% of his salary cap on quarterbacks looms.
If Bill holds onto Jimmy, he could put a first round tender on him as I've suggested, but I'm not certain Jimmy would have to sign it, and I am certain he would be very upset about it.
This would also restrict Bill's compensation to one first round pick, in what is expected to be a strong 2018 quarterback draft. By making a move now, he could get more, sooner, and for sure.
He WILL listen to offers, because not to do so would be downright stupid, and unless somebody offers him their top pick, the Browns number 12 and change might do the trick.
Thomas Moore is, methinks, overly skeptical about Jimmy Garopollo, but did cite three pre-draft scouting reports which were more or less positive. Notably, the CBS Sports one said that he should be a good starter in two or three years.
Tom probably doesn't listen to NFL Radio as I do, because Mike Mayock and Rick Newheisel like Jimmy a lot, and I'm not sure, but I bet so does Cosell.
The fact that he was the fourth quarterback taken in a draft three years ago, and that a lot of teams passed him up twice, is irrelevant. Mayock at that time had nearly identical grades on Garopollo to those he has on Mitch Trubisky now. Kyle Shanahan has him number two behind Carr.
A bunch of teams passed up Prescott, Cousins, and Wilson, too. How many teams passed up Aaron Rodgers? Ryan Leaf almost went before Peyton Manning. It means nothing.
NOTE TO SASHI: Not re-signing Terrelle Pryor might make Jimmy refuse to negotiate with you.
The other rumored trades are unlikely. You are all wrong about Cody Kessler, and about what Hue thinks of him.
I have to admit, Garrett would change the whole defense. I still say defensive end is not a position of need, but Garrett is just in a class of his own. Either Ogbah or Nassib would have more success, as protections would always slide away from them. Danny Shelton would also have only one guy to manhandle more often. Blitzers would come in unblocked more often, and offenses couldn't even try to run Garrett over.
Defensive end would be extremely deep. Gregg could "overrun the perimeter" in the fourth quarter. He could deploy four passrushing defensive ends now and then (wow).
Alternatives at quarterback aren't that limited. If you listen to Mayock and others, they will tell you, in plain language: These guys are talented, with franchise potential. They're being downgraded by as much as 30 slots because they are not ready to start in 2017.
In fact, Trubisky is ranked first only because he has taken a lot of snaps under center, and has played inside the pocket more, so he's better prepared than the other guys.
Mayock feels that DeShone Kizer has the most upside. Others think it's Watson. Mahones is amazing, too. All have the height, size, and arm talent Hue wants.
Since the plan was to keep the rookie on the bench for a year anyway, a quarterback with franchise potential should still be there at 12 (if it's not Jimmy G).
If you think the analytics guys would never trade up, you clearly still don't understand this stuff. For greater long-term value, they will trade up. A quarterback represents disproportionate long term value. Analytics is about value.
So yeah, ok. I'm willing to settle for Myles Garrett, I guess...unless there's another Mike Ditka out there...never say never to a trade offer! Ok Garrett or some fool's entire draft, ok?
Sunday, March 5, 2017
Stuff Smart People Said About Quarterbacks
Rick Newheisel is a former quarterback and NFL coach, and I assume you know who Greg Cosell is. Listening to them on NFL Radio from the Combine recently, I've picked up some authentic expert stuff on these draftable quarterbacks.
I learned something too: Per Greg, Mitch Trubisky is a left-leg knee-locker. Or maybe it was a stiff left-leg passer.
Ron Jaworsky first brought this out several years ago, perhaps in describing Alex Smith, who also has this trait.
This undermines a quarterback's ability to drive the ball downfield. It's not hard to understand:
When the front leg bends foreward, all the power in the legs and hips drive the football forward to the release point. If the left knee doesn't bend, the right leg, well...kind of just comes off the ground, right? (Well ok unless your right leg is a lot longer than your left leg, ok?)
What Cosell is saying is that the stiff left leg is limiting what could be an elite arm. Cosell also ignores completion percentages, and goes strictly off films. He thinks Trubisky isn't as accurate as everybody else says he is.
A completed pass does show reasonable accuracy, but Cosell is talking about placement.
Opinions are divided about how fixable this stiff left leg flaw is. Greg Cosell thinks it can be fixed. He says you can't mess with the upper body, because that's just wired in as the kid grows up. (In other words, you don't try to make a Bernie Kosar throw overhand).
But the lower body is different.
To me, this seems kind of obvious (Greg is right).
The amatuer Cassius Clay stepped into his jabs. Angelo Dundee said it telegraphed the punch, and made him bend his knee to move his shoulder closer to the opponent instead. This was very hard for the young boxer to learn, but he learned it.
This is similar. And this is another reason why any of these quarterbacks (except Pitt's Nathan Peterman) should not start as rookies. Trubisky would revert under pressure, and undo all those bent left knee practice reps.
This encourages me about Trubisky more than it discourages me, since Greg thinks that if not for that locked left knee, Trubisky probably has elite arm talent (and he says more accurate, too).
Nor does this flaw show up except when his feet are planted. It doesn't have anything to do with his ability to throw on the run, or even falling backwards.
But I'm liking Deshaun Watson more, too. HE measured in at almost 6'3", 220 lbs! He had 9 3/4" hands, too! So much for cold, wet, windy weather maybe messing him up, Tony! Tony? Tony?
Anyway my lesson here came from Newheisel, who asked Watson about the intermittent issues with his deep ball.
Watson said he had a tendancy to lean his upper body forward into deeper passes, rather than maintaining his platform and rotating. This "flattened" those passes out, instead of putting the air under them the way he intended to.
The passes still usually went where they were supposed to, but some got deflected, and others made receivers adjust to the ball.
Newheisel came away thrilled by this answer. Rick says "this kid is a self-corrector"!
Per Rick, that's rare. Coaches, even in the NFL, don't always catch this stuff. Watson watches his own tapes, and figures out why this or that went wrong. Then he fixes it. Immediately.
In his second consecutive National Championship Game vs Nick Saban and his historic Alabama defense, he didn't need to see any films. I saw this!
Early, Bama had his number. He looked terrible. He was off on his deep passes. But then he was great, all of a sudden!
It wasn't some rah-rah speech. It was all Deshaun Watson starting out bad, then becoming unstoppable. I have no doubt that he had a "V-8" moment, slapped himself in the forehead, and said "Damn! I'm getting off-balance again!" and just stopped doing it!
Greg Cosell likes him, too, but describes him as a "distributor" any team can win with if he has talented players around him. He predicted that Watson would be a long-time starter in the NFL A F T E R his rookie season, during which he SHOULD NOT START.
DeShone Kizer is very mature, and a brain. Consensus gives him the most upside of any quarterback in this draft. But of course Cosell itemized several flaws, the most concerning of which is his own tendancy to hold the ball too long, and inconsistent accuracy.
In his own defense, Kizer pointed out that when you're 6'4", you need to work harder on your footwork. I liked that. Some people seem incapable of comprehending why Terrelle Pryor isn't running precise patterns yet. Well?
I got very little on Mahones, the stealth quarterback.
Everybody agrees that Nathan Peterman will start in the NFL and will be at least pretty good. He ran a pro style offense at Pitt, beat Clemson, and was the best quarterback at the Senior Bowl.
He has been compared to Kirk Cousins. He is bigger than expected at 6'2.5", 225. He's a legit pocket passer, and is the only one of these guys who could start during his rookie season.
Hue Jackson didn't coach him at the Senior Bowl, but no doubt had plenty of chances to talk to him, and saw him tear up his defense in person. Watch out for this guy!
Now, people have talked about trading back up from twelve to nab a Watson or Mahones if Trubisky isn't the guy first overall. It's universally regarded as unthinkable that the Browns would "give up" Myles Garrett.
But for the umpteenth time, I repeat: Edge-rusher is NOT an urgently desperate need for this defense!!! A franchise quarterback IS!!!
Verily, the Browns and about 30 other teams have nobody like Garrett, but consider what many of YOU have been repeating: "The Browns need help everywhere".
Well that's bullshit, of course, but they could certainly use upgrades everywhere (just like around twenty other teams).
Notably an eventual replacement for Joe Thomas, a hybrid safetybacker for Gregg Wiliams, a super-safety, at least one big cornerback, a penetrating defensive tackle, a REAL tight end, and yeah a center (to make sure).
This draft is deeeep at running back and (wing) tight end, and at cornerback, safety, edge rusher, and defensive tackle. The quarterbacks don't suck, but only one is ready for primetime, and the rest are all risky. Left tackles? VERY shallow. Center? I don't care how Pocic tested (nice right tackle candidate) there is only ONE strong candidate.
Well, the Browns now have five top 65 picks.
Well, if Hue determines that Mahones, Watson, or Kizer can be a franchise quarterback (after a season on the bench), then trading DOWN might be the way to go!
No wait...but...I know but...ahh, shaddap!
REBUILDING. Through the draft. This means EVERYTHING, ok? I want to steal Zietler from Cinci and nab a stud young fa cornerback and stuff, but this whole new team must be 75-80% draft picks for sustained success. That's not just for the youth production line, but for budgetary reasons.
Many of you think only about the 2017 season. Some of you think a couple years ahead; how can we win the 2019 Superbowl?
If you were in charge, the Browns might actually win that game...then collapse as they lose all the veteran talent they can't afford to keep anymore, and don't have talented kids to replace them.
Look, if the Browns want Trubisky or nail down Garropolo, nevermind. If Hue likes Peterson, Wells, Dobbs, or whoever, nevermind. But if they want Watson, Kizer, or Mahones, they should consider trading DOWN to get him cheaper.
Somebody else will want Trubisky or Garrett bad.
By sacrificing this one player, they could make sure to get their quarterback, have at least five top 65 picks remaining, and at least one more high draft pick in 2018.
With the five remaining high 2017 picks, they would have a good shot at a cornerback, safety, 3-tech defensive tackle, center, and tight end; ALL of them, in this one draft.
And I'm telling you again: To give up on Cam Johnson, the injured Nate Orchard, Ogbah, Nassib, and Holmes after one season is spastic. They're not as good as Myles Garrett, but they also weren't nearly as good as they will be--even this coming season.
Terry Pluto thinks they'll lose Terrelle Pryor to free agency. I truly hope he's wrong, but can't argue with him. Pryor is under no obligation to even give the Browns a chance to match his offers. Signing Jimmy Garopollo would help.
A lot of people would spazz out again, as Corey Coleman, let alone the rest of the rookies, are all busts, right? Spazztown USA! Grossi pronouncing last season's draft DOA?
In the real world, the rookie who surprised me late in his rookie season was the rookie Ricardo Lewis. I guess he was a bust because he had to play behind Coleman and Pryor. But he showed some good stuff late in his first rookie NFL rookie season. And was a rookie.
But there is another card in this deck: Josh Gordon. He will obviously be re-instated, and not to give him another shot would be illogical and irrational. Zero risk, astronomical upside: No-brainer. The rest is hysteria.
Ideally, they do retain Terrelle Pryor, and retain Gordon too. Whoa, Nellie Jimmy G would be breaking the door down to sign up for that!
I learned something too: Per Greg, Mitch Trubisky is a left-leg knee-locker. Or maybe it was a stiff left-leg passer.
Ron Jaworsky first brought this out several years ago, perhaps in describing Alex Smith, who also has this trait.
This undermines a quarterback's ability to drive the ball downfield. It's not hard to understand:
When the front leg bends foreward, all the power in the legs and hips drive the football forward to the release point. If the left knee doesn't bend, the right leg, well...kind of just comes off the ground, right? (Well ok unless your right leg is a lot longer than your left leg, ok?)
What Cosell is saying is that the stiff left leg is limiting what could be an elite arm. Cosell also ignores completion percentages, and goes strictly off films. He thinks Trubisky isn't as accurate as everybody else says he is.
A completed pass does show reasonable accuracy, but Cosell is talking about placement.
Opinions are divided about how fixable this stiff left leg flaw is. Greg Cosell thinks it can be fixed. He says you can't mess with the upper body, because that's just wired in as the kid grows up. (In other words, you don't try to make a Bernie Kosar throw overhand).
But the lower body is different.
To me, this seems kind of obvious (Greg is right).
The amatuer Cassius Clay stepped into his jabs. Angelo Dundee said it telegraphed the punch, and made him bend his knee to move his shoulder closer to the opponent instead. This was very hard for the young boxer to learn, but he learned it.
This is similar. And this is another reason why any of these quarterbacks (except Pitt's Nathan Peterman) should not start as rookies. Trubisky would revert under pressure, and undo all those bent left knee practice reps.
This encourages me about Trubisky more than it discourages me, since Greg thinks that if not for that locked left knee, Trubisky probably has elite arm talent (and he says more accurate, too).
Nor does this flaw show up except when his feet are planted. It doesn't have anything to do with his ability to throw on the run, or even falling backwards.
But I'm liking Deshaun Watson more, too. HE measured in at almost 6'3", 220 lbs! He had 9 3/4" hands, too! So much for cold, wet, windy weather maybe messing him up, Tony! Tony? Tony?
Anyway my lesson here came from Newheisel, who asked Watson about the intermittent issues with his deep ball.
Watson said he had a tendancy to lean his upper body forward into deeper passes, rather than maintaining his platform and rotating. This "flattened" those passes out, instead of putting the air under them the way he intended to.
The passes still usually went where they were supposed to, but some got deflected, and others made receivers adjust to the ball.
Newheisel came away thrilled by this answer. Rick says "this kid is a self-corrector"!
Per Rick, that's rare. Coaches, even in the NFL, don't always catch this stuff. Watson watches his own tapes, and figures out why this or that went wrong. Then he fixes it. Immediately.
In his second consecutive National Championship Game vs Nick Saban and his historic Alabama defense, he didn't need to see any films. I saw this!
Early, Bama had his number. He looked terrible. He was off on his deep passes. But then he was great, all of a sudden!
It wasn't some rah-rah speech. It was all Deshaun Watson starting out bad, then becoming unstoppable. I have no doubt that he had a "V-8" moment, slapped himself in the forehead, and said "Damn! I'm getting off-balance again!" and just stopped doing it!
Greg Cosell likes him, too, but describes him as a "distributor" any team can win with if he has talented players around him. He predicted that Watson would be a long-time starter in the NFL A F T E R his rookie season, during which he SHOULD NOT START.
DeShone Kizer is very mature, and a brain. Consensus gives him the most upside of any quarterback in this draft. But of course Cosell itemized several flaws, the most concerning of which is his own tendancy to hold the ball too long, and inconsistent accuracy.
In his own defense, Kizer pointed out that when you're 6'4", you need to work harder on your footwork. I liked that. Some people seem incapable of comprehending why Terrelle Pryor isn't running precise patterns yet. Well?
I got very little on Mahones, the stealth quarterback.
Everybody agrees that Nathan Peterman will start in the NFL and will be at least pretty good. He ran a pro style offense at Pitt, beat Clemson, and was the best quarterback at the Senior Bowl.
He has been compared to Kirk Cousins. He is bigger than expected at 6'2.5", 225. He's a legit pocket passer, and is the only one of these guys who could start during his rookie season.
Hue Jackson didn't coach him at the Senior Bowl, but no doubt had plenty of chances to talk to him, and saw him tear up his defense in person. Watch out for this guy!
Now, people have talked about trading back up from twelve to nab a Watson or Mahones if Trubisky isn't the guy first overall. It's universally regarded as unthinkable that the Browns would "give up" Myles Garrett.
But for the umpteenth time, I repeat: Edge-rusher is NOT an urgently desperate need for this defense!!! A franchise quarterback IS!!!
Verily, the Browns and about 30 other teams have nobody like Garrett, but consider what many of YOU have been repeating: "The Browns need help everywhere".
Well that's bullshit, of course, but they could certainly use upgrades everywhere (just like around twenty other teams).
Notably an eventual replacement for Joe Thomas, a hybrid safetybacker for Gregg Wiliams, a super-safety, at least one big cornerback, a penetrating defensive tackle, a REAL tight end, and yeah a center (to make sure).
This draft is deeeep at running back and (wing) tight end, and at cornerback, safety, edge rusher, and defensive tackle. The quarterbacks don't suck, but only one is ready for primetime, and the rest are all risky. Left tackles? VERY shallow. Center? I don't care how Pocic tested (nice right tackle candidate) there is only ONE strong candidate.
Well, the Browns now have five top 65 picks.
Well, if Hue determines that Mahones, Watson, or Kizer can be a franchise quarterback (after a season on the bench), then trading DOWN might be the way to go!
No wait...but...I know but...ahh, shaddap!
REBUILDING. Through the draft. This means EVERYTHING, ok? I want to steal Zietler from Cinci and nab a stud young fa cornerback and stuff, but this whole new team must be 75-80% draft picks for sustained success. That's not just for the youth production line, but for budgetary reasons.
Many of you think only about the 2017 season. Some of you think a couple years ahead; how can we win the 2019 Superbowl?
If you were in charge, the Browns might actually win that game...then collapse as they lose all the veteran talent they can't afford to keep anymore, and don't have talented kids to replace them.
Look, if the Browns want Trubisky or nail down Garropolo, nevermind. If Hue likes Peterson, Wells, Dobbs, or whoever, nevermind. But if they want Watson, Kizer, or Mahones, they should consider trading DOWN to get him cheaper.
Somebody else will want Trubisky or Garrett bad.
By sacrificing this one player, they could make sure to get their quarterback, have at least five top 65 picks remaining, and at least one more high draft pick in 2018.
With the five remaining high 2017 picks, they would have a good shot at a cornerback, safety, 3-tech defensive tackle, center, and tight end; ALL of them, in this one draft.
And I'm telling you again: To give up on Cam Johnson, the injured Nate Orchard, Ogbah, Nassib, and Holmes after one season is spastic. They're not as good as Myles Garrett, but they also weren't nearly as good as they will be--even this coming season.
Terry Pluto thinks they'll lose Terrelle Pryor to free agency. I truly hope he's wrong, but can't argue with him. Pryor is under no obligation to even give the Browns a chance to match his offers. Signing Jimmy Garopollo would help.
A lot of people would spazz out again, as Corey Coleman, let alone the rest of the rookies, are all busts, right? Spazztown USA! Grossi pronouncing last season's draft DOA?
In the real world, the rookie who surprised me late in his rookie season was the rookie Ricardo Lewis. I guess he was a bust because he had to play behind Coleman and Pryor. But he showed some good stuff late in his first rookie NFL rookie season. And was a rookie.
But there is another card in this deck: Josh Gordon. He will obviously be re-instated, and not to give him another shot would be illogical and irrational. Zero risk, astronomical upside: No-brainer. The rest is hysteria.
Ideally, they do retain Terrelle Pryor, and retain Gordon too. Whoa, Nellie Jimmy G would be breaking the door down to sign up for that!
Friday, March 3, 2017
Mitch Trubisky and the Cleveland Browns
This article on why the Browns should not draft Mitch Trubisky first overall makes some good points, but is still wrong.
The writer goes a little overboard in listing Mitch's mechanical flaws (even calling them "a mess"). He declares that Trubisky will never be able to take off and run with the ball in the NFL as he does in college.
CBS Sports's breakdown of Trubisky by Dane Brugler may be the source of this writer's analysis, as Dane cites some of these mechanical flaws "sometimes". But Dane's analysis was generally positive.
He reluctantly compared Mitch to Andy Dalton, except Mitch has a stronger arm and more upside. Meanwhile, some yokels are lobbying for the Browns to TRADE FOR Dalton's backup and make him an instastarter.
Finally (sigh) this writer declares that when you draft a quarterback first overall, he has to start right away. No. He. Doesn't.
Then, he declares that the Browns suck so bad that they'll probably draft in the top five again next season, and lists four or five quarterbacks who will come out next year in what for the moment looks like a very strong quarterback class.
The Browns have a lot of talent; especially young, emerging talent, and are NOT likely to draft in the top five next season.
Now, I myself cited a Numberfire article which used a sixty-quarterback database: Sixty pros, from elite passers to busts, and compared them to this class of quarterbacks. They did a great job in refining the data for each unique quarterback, and doing their best to find specific player comparisons.
Trubisky was, unfortunately, compared to Marc Sanchez, as it was hard for them to find another quarterback with such a low number of starts in college.
Indeed, Sachez's QBR was significantly higher. But Sanchez didn't have Trubisky's work ethic or dedication, and started as a rookie.
Numberfire's verdict was that this was a historicly bad quarterback class.
Fair enough. But stats aren't everything. Listen to what Hue Jackson says. He's not just running his mouth. He means it:
Hue isn't worried about a limited number of starts. He is only worried about "processing speed" and arm talent. If he has those two things, he can work with the guy.
Hue Jackson probably prefers a guy with less experience, because running another year of a college spread offense could ingrain bad habits. If you THINK about it, you'll understand that Hue just wants the lump of talented clay, as soft and pliable as he can get it.
In Hue's NFL camp, any rookie will learn Hue's PRO offense, instead of running around making half-field reads and improvising. He will run the scout team vs the first string defense, and run every pro offense in training.
He will be watched closely and corrected constantly. He'll play in preseason, and maybe in garbage time in his first season, but will be protected. He will be much more advanced than any quarterback drafted in 2018.
A couple more things: Trubisky's ability to throw all-arm and from different angles accurately is a rare asset. In this respect, he's like Mahomes. The difference is that Trubisky has demonstrated good field vision, makes a lot of line-calls, and has demonstrated an ability to function well in a pocket.
This is up to Hue Jackson. I don't know what he'll do, and Jimmy Garopollo might well be Plan A. But no, drafting Mitch Trubisky first overall isn't "dumb", if Hue says it isn't.
My inner analyst thinks so, which is cool, since my inner-fan wants the home-town boy to live his dream.
This just in: Doug Lesmerisis suggests that Mitch Trubisky might be the quarterback Hue and Sashi can agree on. He may be right, but the idea that Sashi considers himself as qualified as Jackson to make this call is laughable.
DePodesta might have stronger opinions, based on his numbers and historical data, but this will still be Hue's call.
Doug also makes a mistake when he sort of ...assumes, I guess, that Hue Jackson prioritizes size and arm strength, while Sashi prioritizes accuracy. Where did this come from?
When Hue mentions "arm talent" he, like all coaches, are talking about accuracy and touch, as well as the strength to fire into tight windows. And for Hue, accuracy was always number one.
As Hue has said, accuracy can be improved as throwing mechanics become consistent and correct, but only so much. Accuracy is largely enate; built in. An arm can be made stronger, touch can be enhanced with buckets and obstacles, but some guys are just born more accurate than others.
Lesmerisus does get to the heart of the Wentz matter: Carson Wentz wasn't as accurate as any of the top four quarterbacks in this draft.
The Browns were rumored to have preferred Goff. Those rumors were based on Goff's natural accuracy.
Patrick Mahomes is actually the most accurate passer in this draft, but Trubisky has the quicker release and better anticipation, which is why he's seen as much less risky. Mahomes could be a monster sleeper, but could also prove unable to adapt to the pros.
Full circle: Trubisky is a very talented lump of clay.
The writer goes a little overboard in listing Mitch's mechanical flaws (even calling them "a mess"). He declares that Trubisky will never be able to take off and run with the ball in the NFL as he does in college.
CBS Sports's breakdown of Trubisky by Dane Brugler may be the source of this writer's analysis, as Dane cites some of these mechanical flaws "sometimes". But Dane's analysis was generally positive.
He reluctantly compared Mitch to Andy Dalton, except Mitch has a stronger arm and more upside. Meanwhile, some yokels are lobbying for the Browns to TRADE FOR Dalton's backup and make him an instastarter.
Finally (sigh) this writer declares that when you draft a quarterback first overall, he has to start right away. No. He. Doesn't.
Then, he declares that the Browns suck so bad that they'll probably draft in the top five again next season, and lists four or five quarterbacks who will come out next year in what for the moment looks like a very strong quarterback class.
The Browns have a lot of talent; especially young, emerging talent, and are NOT likely to draft in the top five next season.
Now, I myself cited a Numberfire article which used a sixty-quarterback database: Sixty pros, from elite passers to busts, and compared them to this class of quarterbacks. They did a great job in refining the data for each unique quarterback, and doing their best to find specific player comparisons.
Trubisky was, unfortunately, compared to Marc Sanchez, as it was hard for them to find another quarterback with such a low number of starts in college.
Indeed, Sachez's QBR was significantly higher. But Sanchez didn't have Trubisky's work ethic or dedication, and started as a rookie.
Numberfire's verdict was that this was a historicly bad quarterback class.
Fair enough. But stats aren't everything. Listen to what Hue Jackson says. He's not just running his mouth. He means it:
Hue isn't worried about a limited number of starts. He is only worried about "processing speed" and arm talent. If he has those two things, he can work with the guy.
Hue Jackson probably prefers a guy with less experience, because running another year of a college spread offense could ingrain bad habits. If you THINK about it, you'll understand that Hue just wants the lump of talented clay, as soft and pliable as he can get it.
In Hue's NFL camp, any rookie will learn Hue's PRO offense, instead of running around making half-field reads and improvising. He will run the scout team vs the first string defense, and run every pro offense in training.
He will be watched closely and corrected constantly. He'll play in preseason, and maybe in garbage time in his first season, but will be protected. He will be much more advanced than any quarterback drafted in 2018.
A couple more things: Trubisky's ability to throw all-arm and from different angles accurately is a rare asset. In this respect, he's like Mahomes. The difference is that Trubisky has demonstrated good field vision, makes a lot of line-calls, and has demonstrated an ability to function well in a pocket.
This is up to Hue Jackson. I don't know what he'll do, and Jimmy Garopollo might well be Plan A. But no, drafting Mitch Trubisky first overall isn't "dumb", if Hue says it isn't.
My inner analyst thinks so, which is cool, since my inner-fan wants the home-town boy to live his dream.
This just in: Doug Lesmerisis suggests that Mitch Trubisky might be the quarterback Hue and Sashi can agree on. He may be right, but the idea that Sashi considers himself as qualified as Jackson to make this call is laughable.
DePodesta might have stronger opinions, based on his numbers and historical data, but this will still be Hue's call.
Doug also makes a mistake when he sort of ...assumes, I guess, that Hue Jackson prioritizes size and arm strength, while Sashi prioritizes accuracy. Where did this come from?
When Hue mentions "arm talent" he, like all coaches, are talking about accuracy and touch, as well as the strength to fire into tight windows. And for Hue, accuracy was always number one.
As Hue has said, accuracy can be improved as throwing mechanics become consistent and correct, but only so much. Accuracy is largely enate; built in. An arm can be made stronger, touch can be enhanced with buckets and obstacles, but some guys are just born more accurate than others.
Lesmerisus does get to the heart of the Wentz matter: Carson Wentz wasn't as accurate as any of the top four quarterbacks in this draft.
The Browns were rumored to have preferred Goff. Those rumors were based on Goff's natural accuracy.
Patrick Mahomes is actually the most accurate passer in this draft, but Trubisky has the quicker release and better anticipation, which is why he's seen as much less risky. Mahomes could be a monster sleeper, but could also prove unable to adapt to the pros.
Full circle: Trubisky is a very talented lump of clay.
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