First, the snarky comments about the lack of talent new defensive coordinator Gregg Williams inherits are idiotic, not to mention getting old.
Shelton, Haden, Collins, Ogbah, and Kirksey are irrefutably talented. DeMario Davis has quietly not sucked, and Calhoun and Nassib were rookies, and I know they're all as sick of these sweeping kneejerk generalizaitions as I am.
I also believe Ed Reynolds was a diamond in the coal bin, and both of the other young safeties will be special in their second and third respective seasons, though I can't back that up yet.
The single most important thing here is that Gregg is the answer to the real problems with this defense: Accountability.
"Accountability" is one of the hottest words in the NFL nowadays. Every coach inserts it into every third or fourth sentence.
Williams MEANS it. Ask any of his former players. No matter where you were drafted, or what you did even last week, if you miss a tackle or two, blow a coverage, or miss an assignment, you will be benched.
He posts charts at the doors to the meeting rooms with statistical grading for every defensive player, updated weekly. According to two of his former players, if you wonder why you're not getting enough snaps, you just have to look at that chart.
The players all appreciated that. The chart clearly told them what they were doing right, and what they needed to fix. Just as importantly, it proved to them that Williams had no favorites, and that everybody had an equal chance.
As you know if you've read this blog before, the real problems, aside from inexperience, with this defense have been blown coverages and missed tackles. Williams won't put up with that, or knuckleheads lining up offsides $@!×?!!!
I'm not going to bash Ray Horton here, but I do know that he never benched anybody for repeated screw-ups, and that while the coverage got better with Reynolds and experience, the missed tackles remained a chronic issue.
The nature of the Gregg Williams system is almost irrelevant, because if these talented players had not kept screwing up all season long, Horton's system would have worked fine as well.
For that matter, it's actually unfair that Williams will be getting seasoned versions of all the raw rookies Horton had to deal with, and purse-lipped cretins who indict the talent here will remain oblivious to this when they...duh...screw up less.
What about the Gregg Williams system?
Well, Gregg cut his teeth under Buddy Ryan. He's hence called a Ryan "desciple", which is assenine, because he has evolved away from that over the years since. The reality is that he's as much Bud Carson as he is Buddy Ryan now.
Like Ray Horton, he does adapt his scheme to his players, but prefers four down linemen who attack on every down to Ray's semi 3-4 base.
Unlike Ray, Gregg's middle linebacker actually calls audibles based on how the offense lines up when the huddle breaks. Few defensive coordinators are willing to trust a mere player to make these adjustments under fire, and this is unusual.
In a previous post, I called his system extremely complex, but Gregg says "It looks complicated, but it isn't".
In fact, Williams says he wants his players to be aggressive and play fast. "Play fast" is code for not standing there trying to figure stuff out, and if you screw up, screw up in the opposing backfield.
Williams' primary passrushers are, ideally, the four down linemen, who more often than not line up in gaps. For these guys, it's not complicated at all.
Williams blitzes a ton, sending a fifth guy and sometimes a sixth and even seventh. The downside is that he puts his coverage guys in a lot of one-on-one situations, and if a running back does get past the first wave, he can do major damage.
Still, because of the dedicated four-man rush, Williams defenses tend to rank high in sacks and turnovers.
Not all of his blitzes are indended to reach the quarterback. They are meant to keep a dangerous outlet receiver in to block, or to pull a blocker off of one of the defensive linemen.
Gregg has said that any good passrusher should beat most offensive linemen mano e mano, and some of his blitzes are just to prevent double-teams...not that the blitzer doesn't get the hit or sack anyway sometimes.
I haven't studied this in depth yet, but in most 4-3's the four down linemen remain in place in nickel packages. Peterson likes to insert a specialized extra-fast linebacker as one of two in these situations, and sometimes uses safeties in this role.
Three current Browns defensive linemen are locks to start for Williams: Ogbah weak outside, Shelton inside, and Nassib strong outside. The nature of this system will give Xavier Cooper another chance to show off his explosive first step, this time between Shelton and Ogbah. Steven Paea has also been very effective in a similar system.
Understand that Shelton may actually do better in the Williams than in the Horton system, because he's tall and has reach. He's not a prototype gap-shooter, but no guard wants to take him on without help. He can still collapse pockets, blow things up, and pull blockers away from other guys. I guarantee you, Gregg Williams is very happy to inherit him.
Williams' coverage schemes vary. Cover two and cover four more than anything else. He tries to keep the lid on and force shallower routes, then make receivers sorry they caught or tried to catch the ball.
Given the prevalance of 3-wides, the typical 4-3 answer is a 4-2-5, although given the personnel Gregg finds here, he might do something different.
If he goes with his own 4-2, the hybrid linebacker could be Campbell, Kindred, or even Jamie Collins (Collins stays on the field either way).
What about the 3 base linebackers? Collins (I sure hope they sign him; getting Gregg Williams will help) and Kirksey are two for sure (btw Kirksey covers well too). DeMario Davis maybe. A big part of this will be the middle linebacker's ability to diagnose and make the right audibles. Joe Shobert is a good fit, weak outside or middle.
Jamie Collins has every chance of being middle linebacker himself. So much for his alleged tendancy to freelance: He calls the audible, and everybody is on the same page, right?
He has the range, blitzes well inside, and it's tough to get a hat on him standing behind Shelton and another defensive tackle.
How does this effect the draft?
Well, skip the linebacker/defensive end hybrids and "inside" linebackers. No run-stuffing defensive tackles.
The "nerds and geeks" in the front office might well get a linebacker/safety tweener in the third or fourth round.
Jonathan Allen could also gain parity with Garrett in Gregg's eyes. He'd be an exactly perfect fit between Shelton and Ogbah.
Oh stop it! Why do you want Ogbah on the bench so bad, and a "guy" next to Shelton?
Anyway, Williams might insist that his system isn't complicated, but we can expect a bumpy road for the first part of 2017. I expect Chicken Little to demand his termination by game two.
I personally can't wait. At least two of the top five draft picks should be defensive players, and some good young veteran free agents should shake loose.
Moving so quickly was smart. DePodesta and company can now narrow their searches by "type". This was a smart move.
Clearly, they read this blog!
Sunday, January 8, 2017
Friday, January 6, 2017
Combatting Browns Pundit Dumbassitude
I expect to read dumb articles like this all offseason. I included this link because the writer is more ignorant than dumb.
He is correct that the best way to build a team is from the trenches out, but wrong about the states of the extant offensive and defensive lines.
In this much smarter article by (no surprise) Peter Smith, he pretty much restates what I've posted too often: Aside from the need to find Joe Thomas's eventual successor, and answer a question at center, the Browns offensive line is just fine.
The writer of the dumb article banned two starters and a promising young center to the cornfield as soon as they were placed on IR, and implicitly pronounces Shon Coleman DOA.
Oh, the Browns led the NFL in sacks allowed? Well, all four Browns quarterbacks were in the top seven for holding the damn ball too damn long, and at least two thirds of those sacks were the damn quarterback's fault!
You've got to do a little homework, and think just a little before you reflexively blame a MASH unit offensive line for everything, and dismiss four of that unit's players.
In my last post, I mentioned a left tackle who could come cheap in this draft, and since then have updated myself on the two young centers already on the roster:
Reiter and Fabiano. Their scouting reports are eerily similar, which is a strong indicator that Berry and Jackson are pursuing a type.
That type is very athletic, and also smart. Reiter and Fabiano were both seen to lack "ballast" and lower body strength, which is the main reason they were undrafted.
This was extremely smart of them, since the hips and legs use the largest muscles on the human body, and are the simplest and easiest to build up and strengthen. This additional mass and strength often enhances speed and quickness to boot.
Both had mechanical flaws, according to the reports I read, in that they sometimes played too tall and failed to gain leverage. This is common, and correctable.
Sending these two to Hans and Franz is a no-brainer regardless of blocking system, but as-is Reiter and Fabiano are well-suited to an inside zone scheme, which accounted for Isaiah Crowell's outstanding game vs the Steelers.
Pundits persist in talking about Hue Jackson's "power blocking" scheme, but both of his top offensive assistants favor inside and outside zones, and why do they have Andrew Berry targeting zone centers, huh?
In fact, we all saw how stubborn Hue was about keeping Erving at center. Well, Erving is also quite athletic, and his extra length is an advantage in the inside zone.
I have to check myself as I do these analyses, because I feel strongly that Isaiah Crowell is a prototype one-cut running back, and Duke and Atkinson are helped by this scheme as well. I have to make sure that what I want to see isn't corrupting my objectivity.
To make sure that's not happening to me, I jump to the other side of the fence.
Hue should run a power/man scheme! That's why he makes sure he's got a fullback, and three tight ends, including Randall Telfer (a really good in-line blocker). You just load up and bully people, including G-power with pulling guards.
Rules changes really hurt the zone scheme, because it's easy for referees to treat a "hand-off" block (where one lineman takes over a defender from another so that the first blocker can go linebacker-hunting) as illegal, and throw a flag (and these are, of course, the Cleveland Browns, so...)
The defender, knowing what's going on, can now get away with HOLDING the first blocker to protect his linebackers, thus gobbling up two blockers.
And the Browns offensive linemen...
Nope. Only zone makes sense, and if Hue doesn't get it, he is wrong, and I am right. There, I said it. But I also think I'm right about their plans, because a predominantly zone run scheme makes too much sense:
1: Crowell prospered under Kyle Shanahan, and possibly every single one of his big plays came through zone blocking. He has been much less consistant and effective on power sweeps, conventional traps, and man in general.
2: Mitchell Schwartze and Alex Mack, while Mack is pretty good in zone himself, are better man than zone blockers. They are gone.
3: Joe Thomas excels in zone. Joe can push guys around ok, but thrives running around in space; is probably THE best zone-blocking left tackle in the NFL.
4: Bitonio is good in either scheme, Erving (regardless of position) better in zone. Greco, to my surprise, has proven to do better in zone. Coleman is probably better in zone than in man. Both the youngest centers are damn near zone prototypes. They will get stronger, and play lower, but will never be bulldozers. Alvin Bailey was retained. Seattle runs zone.
5: Zone is simple. The techniques seem complicated, but it's basicly the same thing, every time, regardless of opposing personnel or alignment.
6: Like Fabiano and Reiter, guys who don't knock defenders on their butts are drafted lower or go undrafted. This was a key to Mike Shanahan's Denver Superbowls. His offensive line was comparatively cheap, in terms of both money and draft picks. He was able to draft and sign superior skill and defensive players. Running a zone would exoloit the same flaw in the NFL talent market. That's a DePodesta thing. Even if Hue Jackson himself is a "power" guy, I think he's open minded enough to listen to his Chief Strategy officer and both his top offensive assistants.
7: Zone doesn't work everywhere. It's useless on third and inches, or close to the goal line. This could help explain why Hue Jackson is so reluctant to run at the goal line. It would also explain why he carries three tight ends and a fullback. You can be a predominantly zone-blocking scheme, but in some situations, you have to load up and push people back the old fashioned way.
If I am correct, and Hue Jackson is not a Martonian blockhead, how will this effect offensive line personnel moves?
Center is tricky. The linemen all still need to pass protect, and zone types are often vulnerably to bull rushes. They don't have to be maulers, but they do have to be able to anchor and hold their ground. Further, what about those goal line and third and short situations? They have to be able to put on their big boy pants and generate at least a little movement.
This is the zone achilles heel. With the right running back(s), it's damn near impossible to stop on the ground, but it often can't bully a defense when feet and inches matter, and it can often be driven back inside, into the quarterback's face on passing downs.
Reiter or Fabiano as they are will not do, but their increased strength and improved technique (Reiter is actually pretty good mechanicly already) are utterly predictable.
Trust me: DePodesta and the coaches will have the latest reports from Hans and Franz at key points in the offseason. If a player's squats, calf-raises, bench presses, etc meet certain thresholds, the Browns staff will adjust their personnel priorities.
This isn't "moneyball". It's not even complicated.
I need to elaborate--sorry: if Reiteriano needs his ankles to be five degrees more flexible, is 20% under optimum strength (the average strength of good offensive players at the same position), needs to lose 2% body fat and yet sustain or gain weight, then that is that.
If he meets these goals, a real analyst, knowing what the coaches tell him about the player's tapes, can predict
how he will perform. It's TRUE! No "well, we have to see" this or that, ok? They will KNOW, and adjust their draft and free agent priorities accordingly.
This is part of what is new with this front office. I know things. They will be efficient, and won't waste money or picks out of pessimism, paranoia, or any other emotion.
The Browns already know, as I do, that both Fabiano and Reiter should achieve their achievable strength and conditioning goals during this offseason, and that they will have Erving and Greco back, as well. Barring unexpected setbacks, if they intend to stick with zone blocking, they will have their center.
And not just a "guy", but an exceptionally athletic center who is way above average blocking in space, and at least average in the areas he formerly sucked at.
That would render Joe Thomas II the sole offensive line priority.
As for the defensive line, there's some kneejerking going on here as well, and it's a lot harder to figure out, given all the different fronts, prevalence of nickles and dimes, etc.
Kneejerk non-analysts point to statistical suckage vs the run, and maybe the fewest sacks in the NFL, to once again proclaim urgent needs at DE and inside linebacker.
In reality, for much of the season, the safeties were late, and took poor angles, in run support. The front seven guys were in position more often than not, but blew the tackles. That might be poor coaching, but has zero to do with talent.
Opposing quarterbacks usually hit their first reads, and got the ball out at light speed. Small wonder, with Haden hurt, Calhoun and Reynolds arriving late (great job Andrew), and the other corners and safeties decimated by injury.
Ray Horton had to use more zones than he likes to, and back off from press coverage. He was trying to put a lid over the top, but it left receivers open short (and here we go more blown tackles you know the rest).
The reality is that Carl Nassib doesn't currently have enough sand in his pants to excel in his assigned role YET, but he, too, will be reporting to the Hans and Franz House of Horrors.
Ogbah, moved back to defensive end, came on strong in the second half of his ROOKIE season. This guy isn't like Nassib, and can't really get much bigger or stronger without it slowing him down.
Offensive linemen have a reach advantage on him, and he is up against LEFT tackles. Despite being outreached and outweighed, he is almost freakishly strong and maximizes his leverage. And did I mention he was a ROOKIE? OK? DO YOU UNDERSTAND?
Shelton speaks for himself, but give Jamie Meder his props too. Verily, Meder is not a star, but he's a solid rotational guy who can stop the run.
Those who list defensive line as an "urgent", "desperate" need need a brain transplant, as do those who hallucinate the same need at inside linebacker. These acutely impaired individuals see replacing Christian Kirksey and Jamie Collins as an urgent, desperate need.
Don't get semantical on me here. Collins played inside more than he played outside, just like in New England. He can play any of the slots, but he counts as one of the guys these nimrods want replaced.
Which brings me to Ray Horton. In my opinion, Ray has not done a good job here. I respect Ray, but what happened here happened, DESPITE a lot of talent on defense.
Hue Jackson, reportedly against resistance from the front office, brought Ray back here. Horton's track record was pedestrian. I personally liked his innovative, adaptable approach, and thought he could make the most of this talent, but now think I was wrong.
I guarantee you that Sashi and Paul and maybe Jimmy and Dee Haslam are at this moment telling Hue he should have listened to them in the first place, and that he needs to see it and sign off on Ray's termination.
Real analysts listen carefully, and in Hue's most recent press conference, I heard Hue say that changes in the coaching staff were possible, and that they'd have to study on it. Unlike most other listeners, I took this literally.
I saw his blinks, where his eyes rolled, when he looked down, etc also, and I color Ray Horton a gmf.
The current personnel suit either a 4-3 or 3-4 base. There are issues with both:
Hassan, once Hans and Franz are done with him, fits either scheme. Danny Shelton fits any scheme too, but maxes out in the 3-4, since he can command and sometimes defeat double teams. Ogbah as a defensive end is almost ideal on the weak side of a 4-3, but too short and small in a conventional 3-4, and in a non-Ray Horton 3-4, might indeed be more effective at weak outside linebacker, though not as well as at 4-3 defensive end.
Jamie Collins is more of a pure linebacker who suits either scheme, at any linebacker position, but him with his hand in the ground makes little sense. But Collins could be an outstanding MIDDLE linebacker in a 4-3.
Christian Kirksey is blossoming into an outstanding inside linebacker. He is ideal for a 3-4, but could also be really good weak outside in a 4-3.
Jamie Meder and Xavier Cooper would both be best served as defensive tackles in a 4-3. Tyrone Holmes or Cam Johnson could be 4-3 strong outside linebackers, but fit a 3-4 a lot better.
Demario Davis, who does NOT suck, fits either scheme, but is trumped by Collins in the middle, Kirksey on the weak side, and Holmes or Johnson on the strong side of a 4-3.
What can we make of this? Not much!
What will Paul DePodesta make of this? A LOT!
He will push for Horton's removal asap so that the organization can look for his replacement asap. Paul doesn't care which base system ends up being used, but wants to know which system the new defensive coordinator favors asap.
This will have everything to do with free agency and the draft. The defensive players the Browns have now are not system (or often even position)-specific. Paul needs to know, 3-4 or 4-3, (and for that matter press man, off man, zone coverage etc) before he can fine-tune his player searches.
Are you still with me here?
This will get very deep: A one-gap 4-3 would favor Cooper over Meder, and make an inside penetrator a priority. A two-gap would...
Nevermind, I hope you get the idea.
Ultimately, a new defensive coordinator will influence the draft and free agency. The first round of free agency will, in turn, influence the draft.
Now, in the dumb article I cited, the writer also sort of called all trade-downs stupid. He even lumped second round picks in with seventh round picks, and implied that the proceeds of any such trade oknevermind I already said it was dumb.
Sashi and company will consider things like this:
How much better than Ogbah is Garrett? Is Kizer, Watson, or Trubisky an eventual franchise guy, and if so, can we move down and still get him? Can a trade-down guarantee a big stud cornerback or an eventual Joe Thomas too? Will this give us ammo to trade for young veteran players under contract, or for 2018 draft picks one round higher?
I can already hear my pals: "Shut up just take Garrett!"
All I can say to you guys is the brain crust needs to build a TEAM here, and take every opportunity to get the best overall long-term value for every dollar and every draft pick it can.
The numbers have real meaning. If you have an Ogbah and a Nassib, a Garrett is an upgrade, but it means you need to bench one of those two on every down he plays. Is this worth more than a franchise quarterback AND Joe Thomas II or an elite cornerback?
For that matter, both Nassib and Ogbah are being sold short. I promise you, both these guys will wreak havoc in 2017. Garrett might well out-do them as a rookie yes--he's all that.
But you can't screw around at quarterback. Anybody who says "wait til next year, draft one then" is a stone idiot. Franchise quarterbacks don't grow on trees, and if you draft 10th or 15th, odds are you're screwed again.
The Browns are rebuilding, and aiming for a dynasty. If they trade down from first overall, wait three years before you have your tantrum.
He is correct that the best way to build a team is from the trenches out, but wrong about the states of the extant offensive and defensive lines.
In this much smarter article by (no surprise) Peter Smith, he pretty much restates what I've posted too often: Aside from the need to find Joe Thomas's eventual successor, and answer a question at center, the Browns offensive line is just fine.
The writer of the dumb article banned two starters and a promising young center to the cornfield as soon as they were placed on IR, and implicitly pronounces Shon Coleman DOA.
Oh, the Browns led the NFL in sacks allowed? Well, all four Browns quarterbacks were in the top seven for holding the damn ball too damn long, and at least two thirds of those sacks were the damn quarterback's fault!
You've got to do a little homework, and think just a little before you reflexively blame a MASH unit offensive line for everything, and dismiss four of that unit's players.
In my last post, I mentioned a left tackle who could come cheap in this draft, and since then have updated myself on the two young centers already on the roster:
Reiter and Fabiano. Their scouting reports are eerily similar, which is a strong indicator that Berry and Jackson are pursuing a type.
That type is very athletic, and also smart. Reiter and Fabiano were both seen to lack "ballast" and lower body strength, which is the main reason they were undrafted.
This was extremely smart of them, since the hips and legs use the largest muscles on the human body, and are the simplest and easiest to build up and strengthen. This additional mass and strength often enhances speed and quickness to boot.
Both had mechanical flaws, according to the reports I read, in that they sometimes played too tall and failed to gain leverage. This is common, and correctable.
Sending these two to Hans and Franz is a no-brainer regardless of blocking system, but as-is Reiter and Fabiano are well-suited to an inside zone scheme, which accounted for Isaiah Crowell's outstanding game vs the Steelers.
Pundits persist in talking about Hue Jackson's "power blocking" scheme, but both of his top offensive assistants favor inside and outside zones, and why do they have Andrew Berry targeting zone centers, huh?
In fact, we all saw how stubborn Hue was about keeping Erving at center. Well, Erving is also quite athletic, and his extra length is an advantage in the inside zone.
I have to check myself as I do these analyses, because I feel strongly that Isaiah Crowell is a prototype one-cut running back, and Duke and Atkinson are helped by this scheme as well. I have to make sure that what I want to see isn't corrupting my objectivity.
To make sure that's not happening to me, I jump to the other side of the fence.
Hue should run a power/man scheme! That's why he makes sure he's got a fullback, and three tight ends, including Randall Telfer (a really good in-line blocker). You just load up and bully people, including G-power with pulling guards.
Rules changes really hurt the zone scheme, because it's easy for referees to treat a "hand-off" block (where one lineman takes over a defender from another so that the first blocker can go linebacker-hunting) as illegal, and throw a flag (and these are, of course, the Cleveland Browns, so...)
The defender, knowing what's going on, can now get away with HOLDING the first blocker to protect his linebackers, thus gobbling up two blockers.
And the Browns offensive linemen...
Nope. Only zone makes sense, and if Hue doesn't get it, he is wrong, and I am right. There, I said it. But I also think I'm right about their plans, because a predominantly zone run scheme makes too much sense:
1: Crowell prospered under Kyle Shanahan, and possibly every single one of his big plays came through zone blocking. He has been much less consistant and effective on power sweeps, conventional traps, and man in general.
2: Mitchell Schwartze and Alex Mack, while Mack is pretty good in zone himself, are better man than zone blockers. They are gone.
3: Joe Thomas excels in zone. Joe can push guys around ok, but thrives running around in space; is probably THE best zone-blocking left tackle in the NFL.
4: Bitonio is good in either scheme, Erving (regardless of position) better in zone. Greco, to my surprise, has proven to do better in zone. Coleman is probably better in zone than in man. Both the youngest centers are damn near zone prototypes. They will get stronger, and play lower, but will never be bulldozers. Alvin Bailey was retained. Seattle runs zone.
5: Zone is simple. The techniques seem complicated, but it's basicly the same thing, every time, regardless of opposing personnel or alignment.
6: Like Fabiano and Reiter, guys who don't knock defenders on their butts are drafted lower or go undrafted. This was a key to Mike Shanahan's Denver Superbowls. His offensive line was comparatively cheap, in terms of both money and draft picks. He was able to draft and sign superior skill and defensive players. Running a zone would exoloit the same flaw in the NFL talent market. That's a DePodesta thing. Even if Hue Jackson himself is a "power" guy, I think he's open minded enough to listen to his Chief Strategy officer and both his top offensive assistants.
7: Zone doesn't work everywhere. It's useless on third and inches, or close to the goal line. This could help explain why Hue Jackson is so reluctant to run at the goal line. It would also explain why he carries three tight ends and a fullback. You can be a predominantly zone-blocking scheme, but in some situations, you have to load up and push people back the old fashioned way.
If I am correct, and Hue Jackson is not a Martonian blockhead, how will this effect offensive line personnel moves?
Center is tricky. The linemen all still need to pass protect, and zone types are often vulnerably to bull rushes. They don't have to be maulers, but they do have to be able to anchor and hold their ground. Further, what about those goal line and third and short situations? They have to be able to put on their big boy pants and generate at least a little movement.
This is the zone achilles heel. With the right running back(s), it's damn near impossible to stop on the ground, but it often can't bully a defense when feet and inches matter, and it can often be driven back inside, into the quarterback's face on passing downs.
Reiter or Fabiano as they are will not do, but their increased strength and improved technique (Reiter is actually pretty good mechanicly already) are utterly predictable.
Trust me: DePodesta and the coaches will have the latest reports from Hans and Franz at key points in the offseason. If a player's squats, calf-raises, bench presses, etc meet certain thresholds, the Browns staff will adjust their personnel priorities.
This isn't "moneyball". It's not even complicated.
I need to elaborate--sorry: if Reiteriano needs his ankles to be five degrees more flexible, is 20% under optimum strength (the average strength of good offensive players at the same position), needs to lose 2% body fat and yet sustain or gain weight, then that is that.
If he meets these goals, a real analyst, knowing what the coaches tell him about the player's tapes, can predict
how he will perform. It's TRUE! No "well, we have to see" this or that, ok? They will KNOW, and adjust their draft and free agent priorities accordingly.
This is part of what is new with this front office. I know things. They will be efficient, and won't waste money or picks out of pessimism, paranoia, or any other emotion.
The Browns already know, as I do, that both Fabiano and Reiter should achieve their achievable strength and conditioning goals during this offseason, and that they will have Erving and Greco back, as well. Barring unexpected setbacks, if they intend to stick with zone blocking, they will have their center.
And not just a "guy", but an exceptionally athletic center who is way above average blocking in space, and at least average in the areas he formerly sucked at.
That would render Joe Thomas II the sole offensive line priority.
As for the defensive line, there's some kneejerking going on here as well, and it's a lot harder to figure out, given all the different fronts, prevalence of nickles and dimes, etc.
Kneejerk non-analysts point to statistical suckage vs the run, and maybe the fewest sacks in the NFL, to once again proclaim urgent needs at DE and inside linebacker.
In reality, for much of the season, the safeties were late, and took poor angles, in run support. The front seven guys were in position more often than not, but blew the tackles. That might be poor coaching, but has zero to do with talent.
Opposing quarterbacks usually hit their first reads, and got the ball out at light speed. Small wonder, with Haden hurt, Calhoun and Reynolds arriving late (great job Andrew), and the other corners and safeties decimated by injury.
Ray Horton had to use more zones than he likes to, and back off from press coverage. He was trying to put a lid over the top, but it left receivers open short (and here we go more blown tackles you know the rest).
The reality is that Carl Nassib doesn't currently have enough sand in his pants to excel in his assigned role YET, but he, too, will be reporting to the Hans and Franz House of Horrors.
Ogbah, moved back to defensive end, came on strong in the second half of his ROOKIE season. This guy isn't like Nassib, and can't really get much bigger or stronger without it slowing him down.
Offensive linemen have a reach advantage on him, and he is up against LEFT tackles. Despite being outreached and outweighed, he is almost freakishly strong and maximizes his leverage. And did I mention he was a ROOKIE? OK? DO YOU UNDERSTAND?
Shelton speaks for himself, but give Jamie Meder his props too. Verily, Meder is not a star, but he's a solid rotational guy who can stop the run.
Those who list defensive line as an "urgent", "desperate" need need a brain transplant, as do those who hallucinate the same need at inside linebacker. These acutely impaired individuals see replacing Christian Kirksey and Jamie Collins as an urgent, desperate need.
Don't get semantical on me here. Collins played inside more than he played outside, just like in New England. He can play any of the slots, but he counts as one of the guys these nimrods want replaced.
Which brings me to Ray Horton. In my opinion, Ray has not done a good job here. I respect Ray, but what happened here happened, DESPITE a lot of talent on defense.
Hue Jackson, reportedly against resistance from the front office, brought Ray back here. Horton's track record was pedestrian. I personally liked his innovative, adaptable approach, and thought he could make the most of this talent, but now think I was wrong.
I guarantee you that Sashi and Paul and maybe Jimmy and Dee Haslam are at this moment telling Hue he should have listened to them in the first place, and that he needs to see it and sign off on Ray's termination.
Real analysts listen carefully, and in Hue's most recent press conference, I heard Hue say that changes in the coaching staff were possible, and that they'd have to study on it. Unlike most other listeners, I took this literally.
I saw his blinks, where his eyes rolled, when he looked down, etc also, and I color Ray Horton a gmf.
The current personnel suit either a 4-3 or 3-4 base. There are issues with both:
Hassan, once Hans and Franz are done with him, fits either scheme. Danny Shelton fits any scheme too, but maxes out in the 3-4, since he can command and sometimes defeat double teams. Ogbah as a defensive end is almost ideal on the weak side of a 4-3, but too short and small in a conventional 3-4, and in a non-Ray Horton 3-4, might indeed be more effective at weak outside linebacker, though not as well as at 4-3 defensive end.
Jamie Collins is more of a pure linebacker who suits either scheme, at any linebacker position, but him with his hand in the ground makes little sense. But Collins could be an outstanding MIDDLE linebacker in a 4-3.
Christian Kirksey is blossoming into an outstanding inside linebacker. He is ideal for a 3-4, but could also be really good weak outside in a 4-3.
Jamie Meder and Xavier Cooper would both be best served as defensive tackles in a 4-3. Tyrone Holmes or Cam Johnson could be 4-3 strong outside linebackers, but fit a 3-4 a lot better.
Demario Davis, who does NOT suck, fits either scheme, but is trumped by Collins in the middle, Kirksey on the weak side, and Holmes or Johnson on the strong side of a 4-3.
What can we make of this? Not much!
What will Paul DePodesta make of this? A LOT!
He will push for Horton's removal asap so that the organization can look for his replacement asap. Paul doesn't care which base system ends up being used, but wants to know which system the new defensive coordinator favors asap.
This will have everything to do with free agency and the draft. The defensive players the Browns have now are not system (or often even position)-specific. Paul needs to know, 3-4 or 4-3, (and for that matter press man, off man, zone coverage etc) before he can fine-tune his player searches.
Are you still with me here?
This will get very deep: A one-gap 4-3 would favor Cooper over Meder, and make an inside penetrator a priority. A two-gap would...
Nevermind, I hope you get the idea.
Ultimately, a new defensive coordinator will influence the draft and free agency. The first round of free agency will, in turn, influence the draft.
Now, in the dumb article I cited, the writer also sort of called all trade-downs stupid. He even lumped second round picks in with seventh round picks, and implied that the proceeds of any such trade oknevermind I already said it was dumb.
Sashi and company will consider things like this:
How much better than Ogbah is Garrett? Is Kizer, Watson, or Trubisky an eventual franchise guy, and if so, can we move down and still get him? Can a trade-down guarantee a big stud cornerback or an eventual Joe Thomas too? Will this give us ammo to trade for young veteran players under contract, or for 2018 draft picks one round higher?
I can already hear my pals: "Shut up just take Garrett!"
All I can say to you guys is the brain crust needs to build a TEAM here, and take every opportunity to get the best overall long-term value for every dollar and every draft pick it can.
The numbers have real meaning. If you have an Ogbah and a Nassib, a Garrett is an upgrade, but it means you need to bench one of those two on every down he plays. Is this worth more than a franchise quarterback AND Joe Thomas II or an elite cornerback?
For that matter, both Nassib and Ogbah are being sold short. I promise you, both these guys will wreak havoc in 2017. Garrett might well out-do them as a rookie yes--he's all that.
But you can't screw around at quarterback. Anybody who says "wait til next year, draft one then" is a stone idiot. Franchise quarterbacks don't grow on trees, and if you draft 10th or 15th, odds are you're screwed again.
The Browns are rebuilding, and aiming for a dynasty. If they trade down from first overall, wait three years before you have your tantrum.
Wednesday, January 4, 2017
Defending the Cleveland Browns
Dawg Pound Daily analyst Thomas Moore wrote a terrific article dispelling three myths about the 2016 Cleveland Browns. It was quite lawyerly, and will get this response from permabashers:
"Yawull...but..."
I especially appreciated the third myth Tom blew to atoms, as it had to do with analytics.
He tells you what I've been telling you, but, I must admit, more clearly and articulately, which is why I had to provide this link.
In a nutshell, the word "analytics" is a label, now stigmatized. In reality, several dominating Superbowl teams and dynastic winners have used in-depth mathematical analysis for decades. Two of the earliest ones were Paul Brown and Tom Landry (with Gil Brandt).
Today's analysts simply have access to more sophisticated tools, and more information.
Analytics can be used to explain things to dumb people. Paul DePodesta pointed out that rookies played on 25% of the total snaps in 2016, "so that's what Hue was working with".
Is any of this sinking in yet? Hello?
This was the first year of the rebuild, so this number should begin to decline next season. 2016's rookies will return as veterans. They will screw up less, be familiar with their teammates and roles, and even in most cases quicker, bigger, stronger, etc.
They won't be finished products yet. Running backs aside, with rare exceptions, players don't actually hit their strides until their third seasons, or approach their peaks until their fourth.
But between years one and two, they make their biggest improvements.
For all the Chicken Little talk about massive talent deficits, in reality much of this roster will be stabalizing next season.
Quickly jumping from position to position, they have their running backs (and don't forget Atkinson), wide receivers (yes they do), and probably even their offensive line.
Ok I heard that, so let's synopsize my earlier entry: The three on IR will be back next season, Shon Coleman is the leader in the right tackle race with Erving breathing down his neck, and...well that's enough. Not that they won't still draft an eventual left tackle and/or another center.
Gary Barnidge is getting old, Seth DeValve is really a giant wide receiver, Telfer is a blocker, so Hue Jackson could sure use another tight end who can block AND catch, but it's not a big emergency.
I don't believe Reynolds is going anywhere, or Calhoun, or the two other young safeties, and I don't believe Haden is done yet. There are now too many defensive ends and linebackers, and Shelton.
They could use a BIG cornerback, and of course any position could be upgraded.
Yes, a real stud defensive tackle next to Shelton could turn this into a scary and deep 4-3, a real super-safety would be nice, and of course the eventual franchise quarterback is probably not on the current roster.
Yes, the Browns do have 14 overall and five top 80 draft picks, but rookies still won't be taking 25% of the snaps next season.
Nobody will be knocking Thomas, Bitonio, Corey Coleman, Pryor, Crowell, Duke, Shelton, Ogbah, Nassib, Collins, or Haden to the bench.
Indeed, Sashi Brown might well start trading some of his 2017 picks for future picks a round higher.
Your negative hyperbole aside, much of the improvement we can expect from this season to next season is built into the current roster.
A guy like Myles Garrett would of course start instantly, but unless the quarterback lives in New England and has an Italian last name, he probably won't even start. A new starting cornerback is a real possibility. We could see a rookie center or right tackle, but probably not both.
Beyond that, you get to diminishing returns. If Ed Reynolds looks like an above average free safety who can also make all the correct calls, is it worth burning a high draft pick on a guy who you hope will be a little better?
I mean, as opposed to trading that second rounder for a first rounder in 2018, and letting Reynolds continue to improve and stabalize your secondary?
Personally, I would prioritize big cornerbacks, a real tight end, a Joe Thomas heir apparant, a quarterback naturally. Unless a player is truly exceptional, the Browns don't actually need safeties, linebackers, defensive linemen, more than one offensive lineman, running backs, or wide receivers.
, Hell, maybe Sashi will even trade UP this time!
Especially when the Browns will be chasing YOUNG free agents more aggressively this season. They might only sign a couple, and they might not be stars, but would probably be integral players.
In still older entries, I try to get Black Cloud to comprehend that it doesn't take that long to rebuild in today's NFL.
Now look at this: The rookies who took 25% of the snaps will probably get at least as many snaps as veterans. Collins and Pryor. One or two new veteran free agent starters, in addition to these guys, Reynolds, etc.
Next year, rookies might only take 15% of the snaps. Now you're looking at a young, but more experienced roster in the second year of their respective sys---
Oh yeah, Ray Horton?
Anyway, "five years" is rediculous, and so is predicting four wins next season, Chicken Little.
I'm not done yet. If Ogbah keeps this up, he could be in the Pro Bowl next season. So should Pryor. And Collins, and Haden, and Shelton, and Thomas, and Bitonio, and Kirksey, and even Crowell if Hue Jackson just gives him the damn ball more.
There are 22 starters on a team, and I just listed NINE elite players on this one DO YOU UNDERSTAND? Now they will add to that the first, twelvth, and 33rd overall draft picks, with any of these who isn't a quarterback a probable starter and a good or great player.
How many elite players do the Browns need on their roster before you---god do I have to hit you with a two by four or what five years? Four wins really?
Ah crap I give up. For now.
Late add: Speaking of Joe Thomas heir apparants, this Wisconsin left tackle Ryan Ramczyk could be a bargain, and here's why:
He's 6'5", 316, but extremely athletic. Sounds like Joe, right? Not exactly, because Ramczyk is stronger, and a better run blocker than Thomas was in college. He's called an excellent pass protector as well, but I just can't imagine he's quite as good as Big Joe in that area. Thomas is built and moves almost like a tight end.
Top five pick, right? Wrong. Ryan wasn't really even interested in football at first, turning down Penn State to play close to home, then transferring to a college without a football program, then again.
Then he got interested and signed on with Wisconsin. Due to his transfer, he had to redshirt for one season, but at least practiced and got coached up.
He has now started for one season, but dominated. He's naturally talented, and plays with a technical discipline which belies his comparative inexperience.
Scouts and GMs have to be concerned about how he actually feels about football, and will hesitate over drafting any one-year starter too high.
CBSsports thinks he could be a top twenty pick. He will be there at twelve check. But it's also possible he'll make it to the second round, at which point he's a no-brainer and a steal.
This guy could play guard, but there is no room for him there on this team. He'd have to switch to right tackle where, due to Coleman and Erving already having made that difficult transition, he could lose the training camp battle.
I half way hope this happens, so I can hear pundits and fans declaring him a bust.
This might even be a net plus, as in a backup role, he could practice at both tackle spots, learn from Joe Thomas, and be the sixth lineman (a nominal tight end).
This is analytics too: I believe that either Shon Coleman or Erving can do a nice job at right tackle. Then Ramczyk takes over in 2018 and the former starter can be traded.
Ideally, Ramczyk takes over for Joe when he retires, and the survivor inherits right tackle.
Oh yes, they will be thinking that far ahead. There are a lot of variables and moving parts to it, of course. I mean as I write this I can hear some of you laughing at the idea that Cam Erving could be a good starting right tackle, and asking me who would trade anything for any Browns right tackle ever, and what if somebody gets hurt, and telling me you just don't draft a guy that high to be a backup yaddayadda.
It doesn't all need to work out exactly like that. A Joe Thomas successor is a real need for this team, and if you can get one a whole round lower than you got Joe, you should, period.
These guys are planning and thinking long term. That's a big part of why Paul DePodesta is here. To maximize LONG TERM value, and build a PERENNIAL contender.
Just sayin.
"Yawull...but..."
I especially appreciated the third myth Tom blew to atoms, as it had to do with analytics.
He tells you what I've been telling you, but, I must admit, more clearly and articulately, which is why I had to provide this link.
In a nutshell, the word "analytics" is a label, now stigmatized. In reality, several dominating Superbowl teams and dynastic winners have used in-depth mathematical analysis for decades. Two of the earliest ones were Paul Brown and Tom Landry (with Gil Brandt).
Today's analysts simply have access to more sophisticated tools, and more information.
Analytics can be used to explain things to dumb people. Paul DePodesta pointed out that rookies played on 25% of the total snaps in 2016, "so that's what Hue was working with".
Is any of this sinking in yet? Hello?
This was the first year of the rebuild, so this number should begin to decline next season. 2016's rookies will return as veterans. They will screw up less, be familiar with their teammates and roles, and even in most cases quicker, bigger, stronger, etc.
They won't be finished products yet. Running backs aside, with rare exceptions, players don't actually hit their strides until their third seasons, or approach their peaks until their fourth.
But between years one and two, they make their biggest improvements.
For all the Chicken Little talk about massive talent deficits, in reality much of this roster will be stabalizing next season.
Quickly jumping from position to position, they have their running backs (and don't forget Atkinson), wide receivers (yes they do), and probably even their offensive line.
Ok I heard that, so let's synopsize my earlier entry: The three on IR will be back next season, Shon Coleman is the leader in the right tackle race with Erving breathing down his neck, and...well that's enough. Not that they won't still draft an eventual left tackle and/or another center.
Gary Barnidge is getting old, Seth DeValve is really a giant wide receiver, Telfer is a blocker, so Hue Jackson could sure use another tight end who can block AND catch, but it's not a big emergency.
I don't believe Reynolds is going anywhere, or Calhoun, or the two other young safeties, and I don't believe Haden is done yet. There are now too many defensive ends and linebackers, and Shelton.
They could use a BIG cornerback, and of course any position could be upgraded.
Yes, a real stud defensive tackle next to Shelton could turn this into a scary and deep 4-3, a real super-safety would be nice, and of course the eventual franchise quarterback is probably not on the current roster.
Yes, the Browns do have 14 overall and five top 80 draft picks, but rookies still won't be taking 25% of the snaps next season.
Nobody will be knocking Thomas, Bitonio, Corey Coleman, Pryor, Crowell, Duke, Shelton, Ogbah, Nassib, Collins, or Haden to the bench.
Indeed, Sashi Brown might well start trading some of his 2017 picks for future picks a round higher.
Your negative hyperbole aside, much of the improvement we can expect from this season to next season is built into the current roster.
A guy like Myles Garrett would of course start instantly, but unless the quarterback lives in New England and has an Italian last name, he probably won't even start. A new starting cornerback is a real possibility. We could see a rookie center or right tackle, but probably not both.
Beyond that, you get to diminishing returns. If Ed Reynolds looks like an above average free safety who can also make all the correct calls, is it worth burning a high draft pick on a guy who you hope will be a little better?
I mean, as opposed to trading that second rounder for a first rounder in 2018, and letting Reynolds continue to improve and stabalize your secondary?
Personally, I would prioritize big cornerbacks, a real tight end, a Joe Thomas heir apparant, a quarterback naturally. Unless a player is truly exceptional, the Browns don't actually need safeties, linebackers, defensive linemen, more than one offensive lineman, running backs, or wide receivers.
, Hell, maybe Sashi will even trade UP this time!
Especially when the Browns will be chasing YOUNG free agents more aggressively this season. They might only sign a couple, and they might not be stars, but would probably be integral players.
In still older entries, I try to get Black Cloud to comprehend that it doesn't take that long to rebuild in today's NFL.
Now look at this: The rookies who took 25% of the snaps will probably get at least as many snaps as veterans. Collins and Pryor. One or two new veteran free agent starters, in addition to these guys, Reynolds, etc.
Next year, rookies might only take 15% of the snaps. Now you're looking at a young, but more experienced roster in the second year of their respective sys---
Oh yeah, Ray Horton?
Anyway, "five years" is rediculous, and so is predicting four wins next season, Chicken Little.
I'm not done yet. If Ogbah keeps this up, he could be in the Pro Bowl next season. So should Pryor. And Collins, and Haden, and Shelton, and Thomas, and Bitonio, and Kirksey, and even Crowell if Hue Jackson just gives him the damn ball more.
There are 22 starters on a team, and I just listed NINE elite players on this one DO YOU UNDERSTAND? Now they will add to that the first, twelvth, and 33rd overall draft picks, with any of these who isn't a quarterback a probable starter and a good or great player.
How many elite players do the Browns need on their roster before you---god do I have to hit you with a two by four or what five years? Four wins really?
Ah crap I give up. For now.
Late add: Speaking of Joe Thomas heir apparants, this Wisconsin left tackle Ryan Ramczyk could be a bargain, and here's why:
He's 6'5", 316, but extremely athletic. Sounds like Joe, right? Not exactly, because Ramczyk is stronger, and a better run blocker than Thomas was in college. He's called an excellent pass protector as well, but I just can't imagine he's quite as good as Big Joe in that area. Thomas is built and moves almost like a tight end.
Top five pick, right? Wrong. Ryan wasn't really even interested in football at first, turning down Penn State to play close to home, then transferring to a college without a football program, then again.
Then he got interested and signed on with Wisconsin. Due to his transfer, he had to redshirt for one season, but at least practiced and got coached up.
He has now started for one season, but dominated. He's naturally talented, and plays with a technical discipline which belies his comparative inexperience.
Scouts and GMs have to be concerned about how he actually feels about football, and will hesitate over drafting any one-year starter too high.
CBSsports thinks he could be a top twenty pick. He will be there at twelve check. But it's also possible he'll make it to the second round, at which point he's a no-brainer and a steal.
This guy could play guard, but there is no room for him there on this team. He'd have to switch to right tackle where, due to Coleman and Erving already having made that difficult transition, he could lose the training camp battle.
I half way hope this happens, so I can hear pundits and fans declaring him a bust.
This might even be a net plus, as in a backup role, he could practice at both tackle spots, learn from Joe Thomas, and be the sixth lineman (a nominal tight end).
This is analytics too: I believe that either Shon Coleman or Erving can do a nice job at right tackle. Then Ramczyk takes over in 2018 and the former starter can be traded.
Ideally, Ramczyk takes over for Joe when he retires, and the survivor inherits right tackle.
Oh yes, they will be thinking that far ahead. There are a lot of variables and moving parts to it, of course. I mean as I write this I can hear some of you laughing at the idea that Cam Erving could be a good starting right tackle, and asking me who would trade anything for any Browns right tackle ever, and what if somebody gets hurt, and telling me you just don't draft a guy that high to be a backup yaddayadda.
It doesn't all need to work out exactly like that. A Joe Thomas successor is a real need for this team, and if you can get one a whole round lower than you got Joe, you should, period.
These guys are planning and thinking long term. That's a big part of why Paul DePodesta is here. To maximize LONG TERM value, and build a PERENNIAL contender.
Just sayin.
Tuesday, January 3, 2017
Picking on the Cleveland Browns
Some criticisms of Hue Jackson and the current front office are legitimate. At least they're fixable.
With Hue, it's outsmarting himself. His playcalls at the goal line vs the Steelers were everything but a handoff. This is actually a season-long tendancy. Hue needs to dumb it down a little, and be more "predictable".
Isaiah Crowell has fumbled five times in two seasons.
A note on this: Some smart people have suggested that RG3 is partly culpable. He had options to change the plays, or improvise by running it himself.
Terry Pluto makes some good points on the front office, following Joe Thomas's blunt-as-always statements about retaining good young free agents.
As always, Terry bleeds over into previous front offices, which clouds the issue, which is THIS front office.
THIS front office let Mitchell Schwartze walk. The other departures weren't that bad. No they weren't. Were not.
Ok Alex Mack is getting massively overpaid, and the Browns can't set that precedent. In 2015, he was statisticly average. He is older. Not beating Atlanta's offer was almost imperative. That's business.
Schwartze was different.
Speaking more generally, Joe and Terry make another great point: The team should extend young players BEFORE they reach their free agent seasons. Kirksey and a few others fit that category.
Hyperinflation is a constant in the NFL. You can "overpay" a guy a year early. Then, when he goes to the Pro Bowl and stuff the next season and the caps go up again, you find out he's pretty cheap!
Terry doubts that the Browns can sign both Collins and Pryor. Sounds like math wasn't his best subject, as the Browns have way more cap space than they need.
Collins loses a little leverage off of "taking plays off" accusations, and Pryor...
Apparently, Terrelle Pryor has alienated a bunch of former teammates, and the bashing he gets from opposing players is something to behold.
People change, and TP seems to be doing ok with his current teammates, but GMs who consider trying to steal him have to consider that, alternative free agents, and draftables before they throw jillions at this player who, after all, is on his best behavior in a contract year.
I respect Brian Hartline, but he went overboard on the talent side. Pryor is an unmistakable number one who has a thousand yards and is still learning on the job.
As I mentioned during preseason, Pryor was developmentally ahead of Corey Coleman. We saw this in Pittsburgh. Pryor knows when to come back to the quarterback. Coleman doesn't.
Yet.
Hue, it's okay to run the ball on first down on the two yard line. Honest. Sashi, talk to Kirksey and Bitonio's agents now, please!
With Hue, it's outsmarting himself. His playcalls at the goal line vs the Steelers were everything but a handoff. This is actually a season-long tendancy. Hue needs to dumb it down a little, and be more "predictable".
Isaiah Crowell has fumbled five times in two seasons.
A note on this: Some smart people have suggested that RG3 is partly culpable. He had options to change the plays, or improvise by running it himself.
Terry Pluto makes some good points on the front office, following Joe Thomas's blunt-as-always statements about retaining good young free agents.
As always, Terry bleeds over into previous front offices, which clouds the issue, which is THIS front office.
THIS front office let Mitchell Schwartze walk. The other departures weren't that bad. No they weren't. Were not.
Ok Alex Mack is getting massively overpaid, and the Browns can't set that precedent. In 2015, he was statisticly average. He is older. Not beating Atlanta's offer was almost imperative. That's business.
Schwartze was different.
Speaking more generally, Joe and Terry make another great point: The team should extend young players BEFORE they reach their free agent seasons. Kirksey and a few others fit that category.
Hyperinflation is a constant in the NFL. You can "overpay" a guy a year early. Then, when he goes to the Pro Bowl and stuff the next season and the caps go up again, you find out he's pretty cheap!
Terry doubts that the Browns can sign both Collins and Pryor. Sounds like math wasn't his best subject, as the Browns have way more cap space than they need.
Collins loses a little leverage off of "taking plays off" accusations, and Pryor...
Apparently, Terrelle Pryor has alienated a bunch of former teammates, and the bashing he gets from opposing players is something to behold.
People change, and TP seems to be doing ok with his current teammates, but GMs who consider trying to steal him have to consider that, alternative free agents, and draftables before they throw jillions at this player who, after all, is on his best behavior in a contract year.
I respect Brian Hartline, but he went overboard on the talent side. Pryor is an unmistakable number one who has a thousand yards and is still learning on the job.
As I mentioned during preseason, Pryor was developmentally ahead of Corey Coleman. We saw this in Pittsburgh. Pryor knows when to come back to the quarterback. Coleman doesn't.
Yet.
Hue, it's okay to run the ball on first down on the two yard line. Honest. Sashi, talk to Kirksey and Bitonio's agents now, please!
Monday, January 2, 2017
Cleveland Browns: Now What About Quarterback?
JOHNNY MANZIEL IS STILL AVAILABLE!!!
Sorry. Anyway the final draft order and further analysis has presented new issues with the draft.
Behind the Browns are the 49ers, Bearss, and Jagwires. I think the Bears "need" for a quarterback is Memorex Moron stuff, since Barkley looks just fine. But the other two teams will definitely be quarterback-hunting, along with the Jets at 6.
There are three top quarterbacks in this draft, none of which is deemed (for now) to be as good as Goff and Wentz.
Now, Jimmy Garopollo, AJ McCarron, Tony Romo, and maybe even Jay Cutler could change this scenario, as any team that grabs one is no longer likely to use their top pick on another one.
For the Browns, only Garopollo is worth it.
Romo is very old and unhealthy. Any team that trades for him loses not just draft picks, but also has to pay his whale of a contract. Only a real contender, like the Broncos, would want to take this on. A team that needs more work and general talent should not even think about it.
McCarron proved some things in relief of Andy Dalton last season, and has more real experience than Garopollo. One of the teams listed could well go after him. The Browns will not, as except from being a little bigger and taller, McCarron is Kessler, and we already got one of those.
I can break a rule here and assume stuff for the sake of argument, namely that the Bengals will trade McCarron and the Patriots Garopollo.
All of these teams can trump the Browns twelvth overall pick in bidding on Garopollo, and I seriously doubt that the Browns would use their first overall pick on him. He is Tom Brady's backup. Not Tom Brady.
Without getting too deep in the weeds here, it might just shake out so that the Browns could move down to the Titans fifth overall slot, and pick up their second rounder and some change, because they could still then draft one of the top three quarterbacks.
Oh, calm down! They won't do it unless Hue Jackson deems the quarterback as worth the sacrifice, and if he's not stuck on only one of them.
Tennessee has improved a lot, and is on the verge of contention. They wouldn't draft this high without the pick they acquired from the Rams. A Myles Garrett could get them to the Superbowl.
It probably won't happen anyway, so relax.
But they might use the first overall pick on a quarterback.
Haha that was fun, but I really mean it so have your tantrum (I'll wait................)
Well, RG3 has steadily improved, and by the Steelers game was making Hue Jackson look pretty smart. Because he is made of fine crystal, he can't be "the answer", but he can run the offense and win games as long as he lasts.
Kessler will compete with him next season, and I wouldn't predict a winner here. At any rate, the Browns will be two deep with guys who can win with some talent around them. They're not going to contend in 2017 anyway, so that's fine.
That means a second-tier, talented but sloppy project quarterback could be taken a little later in the draft.
Then, of course, the Browns would draft the one man wrecking crew first overall. Not the other guy who is bigger and slower. Garrett.
And later, maybe in the second round, a guy like Matt Kelly. Kelly got in trouble a couple tears ago, but has been a good boy while at Ole Miss (a good ole boy? Sorry).
He likes rapping, but hopefully doesn't imitate black guys and make an ass of himself.
He was dismissed from Clemson for conduct detrimental to the team. Later, he was arrested for disorderly conduct and did 50 hours of community service.
He's a gunslinger who sometimes throws dumb passes, and he holds the ball too long. He locks onto his primary receiver too much.
But he kicks butt in Bowl games, hung 341 yards and four TDs on Alabama, and has racked up impressive numbers vs excellent secondaries.
I offered more info in an earlier entry, but will mention again that Hue Jackson and company might get to coach him at the Senior Bowl. If not, at least they can talk to him and watch him.
Personally, I just don't know. DeShaun Watson was soooo impressive vs Ohio State...and he's a quarterback...but what would Garrett do to him....except he could get away from him and...I don't know
Sorry. Anyway the final draft order and further analysis has presented new issues with the draft.
Behind the Browns are the 49ers, Bearss, and Jagwires. I think the Bears "need" for a quarterback is Memorex Moron stuff, since Barkley looks just fine. But the other two teams will definitely be quarterback-hunting, along with the Jets at 6.
There are three top quarterbacks in this draft, none of which is deemed (for now) to be as good as Goff and Wentz.
Now, Jimmy Garopollo, AJ McCarron, Tony Romo, and maybe even Jay Cutler could change this scenario, as any team that grabs one is no longer likely to use their top pick on another one.
For the Browns, only Garopollo is worth it.
Romo is very old and unhealthy. Any team that trades for him loses not just draft picks, but also has to pay his whale of a contract. Only a real contender, like the Broncos, would want to take this on. A team that needs more work and general talent should not even think about it.
McCarron proved some things in relief of Andy Dalton last season, and has more real experience than Garopollo. One of the teams listed could well go after him. The Browns will not, as except from being a little bigger and taller, McCarron is Kessler, and we already got one of those.
I can break a rule here and assume stuff for the sake of argument, namely that the Bengals will trade McCarron and the Patriots Garopollo.
All of these teams can trump the Browns twelvth overall pick in bidding on Garopollo, and I seriously doubt that the Browns would use their first overall pick on him. He is Tom Brady's backup. Not Tom Brady.
Without getting too deep in the weeds here, it might just shake out so that the Browns could move down to the Titans fifth overall slot, and pick up their second rounder and some change, because they could still then draft one of the top three quarterbacks.
Oh, calm down! They won't do it unless Hue Jackson deems the quarterback as worth the sacrifice, and if he's not stuck on only one of them.
Tennessee has improved a lot, and is on the verge of contention. They wouldn't draft this high without the pick they acquired from the Rams. A Myles Garrett could get them to the Superbowl.
It probably won't happen anyway, so relax.
But they might use the first overall pick on a quarterback.
Haha that was fun, but I really mean it so have your tantrum (I'll wait................)
Well, RG3 has steadily improved, and by the Steelers game was making Hue Jackson look pretty smart. Because he is made of fine crystal, he can't be "the answer", but he can run the offense and win games as long as he lasts.
Kessler will compete with him next season, and I wouldn't predict a winner here. At any rate, the Browns will be two deep with guys who can win with some talent around them. They're not going to contend in 2017 anyway, so that's fine.
That means a second-tier, talented but sloppy project quarterback could be taken a little later in the draft.
Then, of course, the Browns would draft the one man wrecking crew first overall. Not the other guy who is bigger and slower. Garrett.
And later, maybe in the second round, a guy like Matt Kelly. Kelly got in trouble a couple tears ago, but has been a good boy while at Ole Miss (a good ole boy? Sorry).
He likes rapping, but hopefully doesn't imitate black guys and make an ass of himself.
He was dismissed from Clemson for conduct detrimental to the team. Later, he was arrested for disorderly conduct and did 50 hours of community service.
He's a gunslinger who sometimes throws dumb passes, and he holds the ball too long. He locks onto his primary receiver too much.
But he kicks butt in Bowl games, hung 341 yards and four TDs on Alabama, and has racked up impressive numbers vs excellent secondaries.
I offered more info in an earlier entry, but will mention again that Hue Jackson and company might get to coach him at the Senior Bowl. If not, at least they can talk to him and watch him.
Personally, I just don't know. DeShaun Watson was soooo impressive vs Ohio State...and he's a quarterback...but what would Garrett do to him....except he could get away from him and...I don't know
Browns Rookies Do Good
What matters most in the Browns loss to the Steelers was the rookies.
Carl Nassib played better. Shon Coleman graded out at 80 at right tackle. Ricardo Lewis was a big part of the passing game. The latter two were drafted later...
They were drafted later BECAUSE they would need time to DEVELOP DO YOU UNDERSTAND?
Let's review: Corey Coleman hasn't done a lot this season, substantially due to injury. He was drafted out of Baylor, so he had never learned the NFL route tree. This was known and talked about: Coleman would take some time to learn the ropes. He was pretty good in Pittsburgh, and will return in 2017 ready to rock.
Ogbah. Nuff said.
Nassib showed strong signs of life in Pittsburgh. He needs to get a little bigger and stronger. He will DO YOU UNDERSTAND?
Shon Coleman, a THIRD round pick, not a first round pick, was recovering from injury when drafted and had some rough edges. He competed to start at right tackle, and lost.
For a lot of you, that was the end of his story. I do not understand why you would think that. He played very well in Pittsburgh. He is the probable starter there next season, and he will continue to play well. As expected.
Kessler is different. Nobody with a brain thinks he sucks. Quarterback. Third round. CHECK.
FOURTH ROUND PICK Joe Schobert is inexplicably regarded as an instabust after first starting at OLB and then losing his job. In reality, he exceeded expectations in his rookie season. He is a core special teamer, quality depth, and probably an eventual starter. As expected.
FOURTH round pick Ricardo Lewis "disappointed" when he failed to catch six passes a game after Coleman's injury, but vs Pittsburgh was productive and looked good. He won't be sending Pryor or Coleman to the bench, but should play a lot in 2017, and will, of course, continue to improve.
Reminder, Mary: Young players TEND to get better with coaching and experience. And fourth rounders don't generally play much as rookies DO YOU UNDERSTAND?
FOURTH round pick Seth DeValve caught a touchdown pass. He was never expected to bench Gary Barnidge as a rookie.
What now---do I need to defend the FIFTH rounders and down TOO? Aren't we getting a tad rediculous here? Well what the hell how 'bout Spencer Drango?
I kind of think Hue Jackson found out from Rhona LaCanfora that he wanted Haslam to hire a "football guy" and consciously decided to feature Lewis, S Coleman, and DeValve. Did you get his message?
Guys like Reynolds and Calhoun must also be included on this list. They were undrafted rookies.
The first legitimate verdict on this staff's first draft class can't be made until AFTER the 2018 season, but if you call it disappointing, you don't know what you're talking about.
So far, so good.
Sunday, January 1, 2017
Only in Cleveland
I'm sick of scouts. After watching DeShaun Watson punk the Buckeyes, I'm furious that these clowns had me comparing this guy to Teddy Bridgewater. How tf can you call that arm "slightly above average"? How can you fault his accuracy in ANY circumstances?
Ohio State owns one of the best secondaries in college, and they were ON those Clemson receivers. It didn't matter, because it's impossible for any defensive back to legally prevent a perfect pass from being caught.
That was almost unbelievable accuracy. One receiver fell down, and Watson did get too greedy throwing into double coverage for two interceptions, but niether one will bother real scouts.
The size stuff is also bugging me. Watson looks over 6'1" to me. You just watch, he'll be around 6'2". He does need to see Hans and Franz, however; here the Bridgewater comparison holds up.
Watson delivers in big games, every time. No, don't mention his one Bowl loss. He had 21 other guys with him, ok? And he IS Clemson's offense. They don't have a running game (well, except for HIM).
But wow did he have HELP! I had no idea Clemson's defense was that good. People talk about the defensive line, but I need to check out that secondary too. Nobody could get open! I can't wait to look for future Cleveland Browns on that roster!
Oh yeah too bad Ohio State lost. I'm stunned. It was Watson and that defense...wow.
A dumb supplicant asked Mary Kay Cabbot if Hue Jackson would demand changes in the front office. Where tf did that come from? Why? Who did what wrong? Those guys were one of the reasons he signed up in the first place!
But Mary doubled down in her response. She thinks Hue will ask for a more experienced personel guy (like Berry or the senior scouts).
THIS JUST IN update: La Canfora read Mary Kay's opinion, and cited "numerous sources in and around the team" to declare that the Browns coaches would press Haslam for front office changes.
It's LaCanfora, ok? Now we KNOW it's BS!
The reasons the Browns lost all those games had almost nothing to do with talent. The whole middle of the offensive line got nuked, and there was zero continuity, sometimes even for any two sequential games.
Erving has improved, but doesn't look to have a high cieling at center, which is why today he'll play some right tackle. ( Note on this/ask LeCharles or Doug: Aside from a brief stint at guard late last season, Erving has never played on the right side. You need to cut him some slack, ok?)
Haden was never healthy, and the team in general relied heavily on rookies, who predictably made mistakes. Kessler was never expected to start as a rookie, and RG3 was also Hue's idea.
They got Calhoun, Pryor, Collins, Reiter, come on! Why would Hue want to monkey around with the front office? Mary Kay you're still just plain wrong (but I like you anyway).
This is bad. DeAngelo Williams is dinged a little, and since he's a running back and a geezer they might shelf him, too. I think the Browns will win. In fact I'm all over Crowell in fantasy and got some Pryor too.
Amazing, isn't it? Only in Cleveland. Watch Tomlin laughing at the end of the game. If you listen outside the Steelers locker room you will hear this:
"NO MYLES GARRETT! NO MYLES GARRETT! YAYYYYYYYY!"
Ohio State owns one of the best secondaries in college, and they were ON those Clemson receivers. It didn't matter, because it's impossible for any defensive back to legally prevent a perfect pass from being caught.
That was almost unbelievable accuracy. One receiver fell down, and Watson did get too greedy throwing into double coverage for two interceptions, but niether one will bother real scouts.
The size stuff is also bugging me. Watson looks over 6'1" to me. You just watch, he'll be around 6'2". He does need to see Hans and Franz, however; here the Bridgewater comparison holds up.
Watson delivers in big games, every time. No, don't mention his one Bowl loss. He had 21 other guys with him, ok? And he IS Clemson's offense. They don't have a running game (well, except for HIM).
But wow did he have HELP! I had no idea Clemson's defense was that good. People talk about the defensive line, but I need to check out that secondary too. Nobody could get open! I can't wait to look for future Cleveland Browns on that roster!
Oh yeah too bad Ohio State lost. I'm stunned. It was Watson and that defense...wow.
A dumb supplicant asked Mary Kay Cabbot if Hue Jackson would demand changes in the front office. Where tf did that come from? Why? Who did what wrong? Those guys were one of the reasons he signed up in the first place!
But Mary doubled down in her response. She thinks Hue will ask for a more experienced personel guy (like Berry or the senior scouts).
THIS JUST IN update: La Canfora read Mary Kay's opinion, and cited "numerous sources in and around the team" to declare that the Browns coaches would press Haslam for front office changes.
It's LaCanfora, ok? Now we KNOW it's BS!
The reasons the Browns lost all those games had almost nothing to do with talent. The whole middle of the offensive line got nuked, and there was zero continuity, sometimes even for any two sequential games.
Erving has improved, but doesn't look to have a high cieling at center, which is why today he'll play some right tackle. ( Note on this/ask LeCharles or Doug: Aside from a brief stint at guard late last season, Erving has never played on the right side. You need to cut him some slack, ok?)
Haden was never healthy, and the team in general relied heavily on rookies, who predictably made mistakes. Kessler was never expected to start as a rookie, and RG3 was also Hue's idea.
They got Calhoun, Pryor, Collins, Reiter, come on! Why would Hue want to monkey around with the front office? Mary Kay you're still just plain wrong (but I like you anyway).
This is bad. DeAngelo Williams is dinged a little, and since he's a running back and a geezer they might shelf him, too. I think the Browns will win. In fact I'm all over Crowell in fantasy and got some Pryor too.
Amazing, isn't it? Only in Cleveland. Watch Tomlin laughing at the end of the game. If you listen outside the Steelers locker room you will hear this:
"NO MYLES GARRETT! NO MYLES GARRETT! YAYYYYYYYY!"
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