Wednesday, October 28, 2020

Browns 48, Raiders 47. Ruggs vs Ward. Browns Stuff Like That and Stuff

 Now we've heard Comrades Mayfield and Stefanski, along with Jarvis Landry scoff at the notion that Mayfield/the Browns are better off without OBJ.

Part of this is loyalty; especially to a teammate who's been unfairly bashed personally, but the other part is valid (I quoted what I guessed Pat Kirwan would say about it in my last post).

As Landry partly explained, the passing offense relied on OBJ to "take the lid off" defenses to open short and intermediate patterns up, plus take one potential run defender out of the box.

But (redundancy alert) OBJ isn't an ideal X receiver. He relies on his superb quickness to gain separation in man coverage, but can't be expected to make contested catches on vertical routes.

In my opinion, Comrade Mayfield has stubbornly kept trying to thread that needle, as if OBJ was 6'2", 207 lbs or something.

Bullcrap aside, Baker Mayfield is as accurate as any Quarterback when his mechanics are right (which is almost always). He keeps trying to put it in that tiny space where only OBJ can catch it (maybe with one hand).

But let's get real here: OBJ hasn't caught even half of his targets.

That's partly because of his freelancing (those "what was he thinking?" "dumb" passes, but also because no Quarterback can reliably hit a moving target that small that deep.)

OBJ was the default X here, but is much more effective running the same routes Jarvis Landry runs. He gets separation, catches it in-stride, and gets massive YAC yardage.

Now that OBJ is out, who's the X, and is that going to work?

It's not Landry, ok? Just stop it!

The candidates are Khaderel Hodge, Rashard Higgins, and DPJ (Donovan Peoples-Jones).

Ok long story short: I DARE the Raiders not to respect any of these guys deep with Comrade Mayfield under center. The offense should work fine with any of these "bumbs" as designated deep threats.

OBJ is great but injury-prone and a bad fit at X in a timing offense; all 3 of these guys fill that slot better, and if you put Stefanski on truth serum he'd admit it.

DPJ and Hodge are faster than Higgins, but Higgins averages over 16 YPC and is a football vacuum. Corners can keep up with him, but it doesn't seem to matter.

Mayfield gets much, much bigger windows, and knows his receivers will be there (really, it's that simple).

Raiders writer Kenneth Arthur wrote a terrifying article about Derrick Carr, and how WR Henry Ruggs has brought out his "inner gunslinger", so to speak.

Carr averaged over 11.2 yards per-attempt vs the Chiefs, which is about as aggressive as a QB can get.

Ruggs is a lot like OBJ, except faster.

It looks like Ronnie Harrison is good to go, along with all the CBs not named Greedy. Jacob Phillips is "iffy", but the Defensive Line might actually be at (almost) full strength for a change.

That's all critical, since Harrison can stay on top of Ruggs, and be close enough when he catches it to nail him before he can make a move, and getting in Carr's face (and stifling the run) is how you keep him from throwing those long bombs to him.

Denzel Ward matches up about as well with Henry Ruggs as any CB in the NFL does. At a certain point, tenths of seconds in the 40 don't matter much.

Ward might not be able to catch up with Ruggs if he gains a step, but can probably stay with him.

Woods will almost certainly put Ward on Ruggs in man coverage.

I don't know right now which CBs Ruggs has faced so far, or how defenses have schemed to contain him, but hope that Ruggs hasn't faced anybody like Denzel Ward yet.

With Harrison deep with one eye on Ruggs, Ward can press (bump-and-run) Ruggs. The deep safety knows right away if the CB has forced the receiver outside, so he can come forward to seek and destroy other threats (or "head him off at the pass".)

Dixon and Minnifield (with Felix Wright deep) stifled the best passing attacks in the NFL doing this.

All I'm saying here is that *no research here* maybe Henry Ruggs hasn't faced anybody like Denzel Ward yet, and Carr hasn't faced a defensive line like this one (or if he did they messed him up).

If I could afford to bet, I'd take the "over" here, because the Browns' defense sucks.  But my inner-analyst still thinks the more talented team will win (because they have competent coaching for once, and YES: A legit franchise Quarterback) I HAVE SPOKEN.

...Okbye.

Oh yeah Darren Waller too (oh joy)!

Pray for Phillips.


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