G might take out a contract on me for saying this, but I told you so:
I want to make this crystal clear first: Odell Beckham Jr is an awesome player who gets unfairly lumped in with selfish malcontents like Antonio Browns for his emotional displays. I never bashed him, and he was never disruptive or selfish while with the Cleveland Browns.
However, Baker Mayfield needed a 5'11" X-receiver like he needed a hole in the head. Redundancy Alert: Mayfield is a timing ball-distributor who hits whoever looks open deepest earliest, period.
Most Quarterbacks need a "go-to" "coverage dictator" who draws safety coverage, and can beat it by making contested catches.
Beyond the "go-to" part of that, keeping that safety deep and predictably away from the other receivers makes both pre and post-snap reads easier.
Comrade Mayfield is different. This is why, as a rookie in 2018, with Jarvis Landry and guys named Joe, he set several NFL rookie records in 14 games.
He made Rashard Higgins a fan favorite, Njoku became a lethal weapon, Hunt integrated seamlessly, and others no longer with the team made significant contributions.
Jarvis Landry was still "favored", but saw his targets decline significantly. He never complained. (LANDRY was never a selfish player either.)
But then Dorsey traded the farm for OBJ and Pegleg Vernon, and screwed everything up.
In 2019, Dorsey kinda took over the coaching side when he fired Zampese and named interim Head Coach Freddie Kitchens the new Head Coach.
I couldn't prove this in court, but Freddie Kitchens lacked the resume to be an OC, let alone Head Coach (but yes I said it was a good move at the time I was wrong).
Dorsey "bought" Freddie Kitchens at that time. Handed him a winning lottery ticket...and said "but you do what I say, get it?"
Having traded 17 overall, a mid third round pick, Zeitler and Jabrill Peppers for Pegleg Vernon and OBJ, the Dorsey Offense of 2019 immediately featured OBJ.
OBJ predictably missed training camp with injuries, then played hurt (and was unmistakably not the same).
Mayfield kept forcing balls to him, instead of spreading the wealth as he had all his life, and through 2018.
I blamed Dorsey for this at the time, as I assumed that the second year QB with the bad rep was trying to be a "good soldier", but here came 2020 with Stefanski and Coach Dorsey gone.
Same deal! Here's Comrade Mayfield still forcing stuff to OBJ instead of spreading it around!
I suspect that Baker knew that OBJ was healthy (sorta) now, and was trying hard to make the most of him; that his failure to do so last season irked him, and was something he needed to fix.
But I've now heard from several legit experts (Quarterbacks and Coaches) who say that OBJ is a bad fit for a timing system, because he freelances.
He HAS TO freelance, because he's a light 5'11", and the better corners and safeties can anticipate his system-imposed breaks.
Possibly, if OBJ hadn't been lost for the season, the two players would have figured this out and rote havoc, but as it is, Mayfield and the Browns are better off now.
As you saw, Mayfield played his best pro game ever starting the instant that OBJ bit the dust. His only incompletion was a spike.
David Njoku only caught 2 passes (one for a TD), but 5 others caught at least 3 passes.
Kareem Hunt averaged 8.7 yards (with a TD) on his three, but rookie Donovan Peoples Jones (I'll call him "DPJ" from now on) averaged 18.7 (with a TD).
Rookie TE Harrison Bryant caught 4 (average 14) for 2 TDs, Landry caught 5 (average 9.6), and Higgins caught 6 for 110 yards and an 18.3 YPC average.
That's 6 (and 3 TDs) to the Tight Ends, 3 to Running Backs (one TD), and 14 to Wide Receivers.
The Comrades remained aggressive after OBJ went down. They didn't go with dink-passes and screens when Cinci stifled the run, and Mayfield was actually 5-7 steps deep in an actual pocket a lot.
The Offensive Line (and Tight Ends and Hunt) did a great job in protection, by the way.
Anyway, if you think Comrade Mayfield's "breakout game" vs the lowly Bengals was a fluke, and expect him to backslide now, you don't get it.
If you think the Browns need to trade draft assets for a Wide Receiver to bench Higgins, Hodge, or DPJ, you are an idiot.
Comrade Mayfield is liberated now. He will become himself again sans OBJ.
All these receivers are big, physical, and disciplined (don't start with me on Landry here; he's not like OBJ at all).
Some experts will overthink this, like maybe former Jets GM Pat Kirwan:
"The Browns don't have a proven deep threat X receiver now to keep that safety back. Now, opposing defenses can stack the box, sit on the shorter routes, and go after Mayfield more. And that's how you blow up those wide-zone runs; with inside penetration" (etc) (*I haven't had NFL Radio and am just guessing about what Pat will say here*)
But this is a "formula": Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Trent Dilfer, Drew Brees, and several others have won Superbowls without Randy Moss, Julio Jones, Megatron, or whoever, and a BUNCH of teams have come up short with AJ Green, Megatron, Thomas, etc.
Even Pat Mahomes, who just won the Superbowl, didn't have the X-receiver Kirwan implies is mandatory: Tyreek Hill is 5'10, 185 lbs.
He can't make "contested" catches, or bully his way into staying "on time" on his route...
Reid runs a timing offense too, so we can agree that Pat Mahomes is better than Comrade Mayfield, but not that the Chiefs won the Superbowl without a Pat Kirwan X-receiver.
While I stipulate that Mahomes is better than Mayfield, I also think it's a close contest (ie that Mayfield might be almost as good, now that his head is out of his ass *football-wise*)
But on to the Raiders:
This is a scary team, which beat their rivals the aforementioned KC Chiefs.
The Bucs just dominated them 45-20, but along with the Chiefs, they beat the Saints and Panthers, and have had a tougher schedule than our Browns
Without checking out the rankings or stats, my gut tells me the Browns will win (well ok I accidentally noticed that the Raiders are vulnerable to the pass).
The Browns Offense should be able to score points, but their Defense might be the worst in the NFL so far (except they've been getting turnovers)
I think the calls for DC Joe Woods' head are a tad premature (and spastic), as the loss of Greedy Williams and absences of Ogunjobi, Vernon, Wilson, Harrison, Johnson, and Joseph have had something to do with this.
The lynch-mobs always blame Quarterbacks or coaches, because they're clueless.
Not that I'm all-in with Joe Woods or anything!
I'm just saying give him more of a chance.
Yeah I hear ya: This defense has been the worst since Woods took over.
But take a deep breath and step back for a minute:
Myles Garrett and Denzel Ward are the only studs Joe inheritted (and I'll include Terrence Mitchell here).
Ogunjobi per PFF was less than mediocre. The Linebackers included 2 rookies, and (get a grip here) Wilson was average at best per PFF
Gramps Sendejo was obviously a HUGE swing-and miss by Berry, and Karl Joseph hasn't been "himself" even when healthy.
I've called Joe Woods a blockhead for playing Sendejo ahead of Redwine, but that's it: None of his fan-bashers can tell anybody what Joe is doing wrong.
Obviously, missed tackles is biggest problem yet again in 2020, but you people are blaming Joe Woods for this, and you're fulla crap.
The Defensive Coordinator puts his people in position to make plays, comprehende? It's s NOT HIS FAULT if the players blow the tackle or otherwise don't close the deal!
You people...
Jacob Phillips and Ronnie Harrison should be healthy for the Raiders game, which matters.
Some of you seem to comprehend that Ronnie Harrison is awesome at either Safety slot, but don't grok that Jacob Phillips is "ready for prime time" way ahead of schedule.
The biggest ding on Phillips pre-draft was his coverage, but (redundancy alert) he was rarely asked to cover in college, and his sample-size was microscopic.
But he's 6'3" and faster than 99% of the Tight Ends in the NFL, so...
Anyhoo, Jacob has lost time to injury (he's a BROWN, after all), but (G by all means take me out) , Phillips can cover Tight Ends, like I predicted he could, and is a well-established sideline-to-sideline tackling machine.
I'm not trying to tell you that these and other guys coming back from injury will turn the Defense around all at once, but on third downs, these guys tend to deliver.
Including/especially TACKLING.
IMNHO, Joe Woods has done ok (except for keeping Redwine on the bench after it was obvious that Sendejo sucked).
It looks like Harrison, Phillips, Ogunjobi, et al might for once be semi-healthy for the Raiders game (and I'll stick my neck out and hope that Woods will actually let Redwine play instead of good ole reliable gramps Sendejo gdammit)...
Don't expect the Raiders D to stuff the Brown running game. Nobody really has (except the Steelers...sorta).
Sans OBJ, they'll go all-out to stuff the run, penetrate, and NOT respect deep threats (trying to put the weight on Mayfield).
That's what I would do, so 'nuff said (😜G). (G can't handle my being smarter than him in any way, at anything. He wants me dead now for saying "I was right" but I digress):
Moving past insanity, I don't think the Raiders will score over 24 points on this iteration of the Browns' Defense.
I expect the Raiders not being able to run consistently, as the Steelers game doesn't negate the other 6. The 2020 Browns' Defense can stop the run.
The Raiders offense is just kinda "ok" overall. Derrick Carr is having a carreer year, with a passer rating over 100...
Well I can't break this down further without wasting a lot of time, but based on what I've been allowed to see, Carr still throws short a lot (like he always has)
I'm not bashing Derrick Carr here. Brian Sipe, Joe Montana etc match this profile.
But the Raiders Offense shows a mediocre (oh excuse me: that actually means average) running game.
I know that Jonn Gruden won a Superbowl, but overell well...
I know that he's allegedly a Quarteback guru, and had that TV gig for awhile, but Gruden NEVER nurtured or developed a young Quarterback!
Indeed, I've heard from several Quarterbacks that Gruden ignored everybody except the starter---and we all know that Gruden trades draft picks for vets I mean...call him Jon BIDEN, right?
But I digress: Jon Biden Gruden inheritted Derrick Carr (good luck for him; Carr is pretty good).
But Derrick Carr is about as good as he will ever get, and (in reality) Gruden won't make him any better.
If Joe Woods gets Phillips, Joseph, and Harrison (not to mention Ogunjobi etc) back, the Raiders will confront an adequate (turnover-prone) Defense.
Bashers don't pay attention to this stuff, but Joe Woods has relied on the Defensive Line for pressure, and only blitzed selectively; he's tried to keep 6-7 guys in coverage amap (nevermind that it hasn't worked well; YOU couldn't have done better Einstein).
Anyhoo Carr doesn't handle pressure well (and WILL BE pressured without blitzes.)
Henry Ruggs is his lethal weapon, but he's a shrimp like OBJ. He might well burn the Browns, but Denzel Ward is here for a reason, and Carr will need a couple seconds to deliver...
I'm done here:
The Browns are the more talented team, and should win. (What a difference a Coach makes! I just said that the Browns should win because they're more talented! And BELIEVE it!!!)
Anyhoo Browns 126, Raiders 3.
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