Bad Analysis:
The Browns are in for a "rude awakening" because the 3 teams they beat (now) surrender an average of around 25 points, whereas the Colts' Defense leads the league with only 14 ppg.
A valid point! But don't you need to look at the other side of that?
The Colts beat the Vikings, Jets and Bearss. Which of these is scoring over 45 points per game (like the Browns are?)
I get this: It's the Browns, so this anal yst ass umes that the Browns' scoring machine is a mirage, and this train will wreck itself against the rock of the Colts' Defense. In Cleveland.
Digging a little deeper into the aforementioned scoring machine, the Browns' own much-maligned Defense has helped, with timely sacks and turnovers.
The Offense in general has enjoyed good field position (as the return games also showed improvement vs the Cowboys).
Raw numbers aside, the Browns' Offense is unique. In game 1, it averaged over 5 YPC vs the Ravens .
Some anal ysts don't get that any Defense can't just make up it's mind to stop the run if the blockers on the other side of the ball can just plain beat the defenders physically!
He thinks the Colts giving up only 2.7 YPC means more than the Browns averaging around 6.5? Why? Because they stuffed the Jets and Bearss?
The Colts beat the Vikings 28-11, but took an 18-point lead into halftime, kind of taking Dalvin Cook off the table as a ballcarrier (Cook was 14/63/4.6 and Alex Mattison had 3 carries for 4.3 ypc)
Kirk Cousins got DESTROYED.
Let me axe you: Do YOU know the difference between the 2020 Browns and the 2020 Vikings? Well please tell this bad anal yst!
Prior to the 2020 season, PFF graded the Vikings Offensive Line 23rd in the NFL, saying they were decent zone run-blockers, but were vulnerable in pass protection.
Does that sound like the Cleveland Browns Offensive Line?
Dominant Offensive Lines beat dominant front 7’s more often than not because they’re the big uglies, and know the snap-count and the called play.
Fantasy GMs see this all the time: Defense X allows 2.7 Yards Per Carry, so you don’t use RB Y, and he racks up 150 yards and 2 TDs.
Ditto WRs and TEs, and it’s almost always in the Offense’s favor, every time that Offense has a top Offensive Line.
And the Browns run 2 Tight Ends a lot, and a Fullback sometimes. How can all this zing over your head?
The Browns WILL run the ball on the Colts’ Defense, and that’s all this Offense needs to dominate.
Furthermore, the 2020 Browns’ Defense is underrated:
The Offense has established comfortable leads in their 3 wins, and Joe Woods has gone into “prevent” mode.
He’s conceded underneath passes in order to guarantee no big plays over the top (or on the ground).
He made Burrow, Prescott, and even Haskins look awesome as they burned up all their clock-time dinking and dunking.
In reality, this Browns Defense has been fairly copecetic.
Myles Garrett leads the NFL in sacks (and strip-sacks).
The Browns are first in the NFL with a +6 turnover differential. That’s 4 interceptions and 6 fumbles (and Garrett had a piece of MOST of them).
This Browns’ Defense has been called “bend but don’t break”, but earlier in games (without a big lead), it’s actually not been very “bendy” at all.
I can’t dig up stats by quarter, and don’t have the time to go over the last 3 games, but I can tell you that vs Cinci/Washington/the Cowboys the Browns were ahead at halftime, and that none of those teams had scored more than 17 points by halftime (including Dallas; they had 14 points and were behind by 7).
The Browns’ Defense held the Cowboys Offense to 14 points in the first half DO YOU U N D E R S T A N D?
Somebody call this anal lyst and remind him that the Colts’ Offense ranks only slightly ahead of the Redskins’ at this point.
The Colt’ Offense will do “just enough” to out-score the totally stuffe Browns’ Offense, and scrape by in a Field Goal contest really!?!
No offense to the Colts’ Defense, which absotively looks like the best the Browns have faced (including the Ravens and Washington) so far.
Why, they might just stifle the Browns’ running game to under 4.8 yards per carry, sack Mayfield as many as 2 times and stuff...
Trust me: Bitonio, Tretter, Hunt, Hooper, Teller, Landry, OBJ, Wills etc are shaking in their boots! How can they possibly score points on this historically dominating Defense?
Maybe they shouldn’t show up. Just let the Colts have the win, and focus on getting healthy.
Sorry: This was one guy, and I assume that most pundits and analysts will be smarter than that.
My early prediction is Browns 37, Colts 20.
Okbye
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