Friday, September 18, 2020

Bengals, Burrow, Browns, Analytical Assumptions, and the Browns

What a game!

As Steve Patsko points out, the Browns have work to do.  PFF graded a number of players very low-especially all of the Linebackers (BJ Goodson in particular--he sucked against the run as well as in coverage!)

I rely on PFF (and guys like Pete) to keep my inner-fan in line.  During the game, I was aware of missed tackles and stuff, but never thought they were that bad.

...I still don't, completely:

What I saw was a rookie Quarterback throwing pinpoint passes into excellent coverage (at least in the first half, before things got fuzzier).

My peeps were bashing the Defense, but those passes by Burrow were Joe Montanian, and you can't stop a perfect pass.

Then, late in the game, the Browns were in "umbrella" (prevent) coverage, and Burrow gobbled all the short stuff they conceded up.

...yeah, I question whether or not the geeks have found a way to consistently turn these situations into numbers.

In a Prevent, all the coverage guys play soft, by design (and the Free Safety stays deep).  The guys  up front pin their ears back and attack the pocket, but the coverage guys all just make sure their receivers don't get behind them.

I strongly suspect that PFF dings coverage guys for the underneath completions they've all but conceded.

I could be wrong.  Maybe PFF has an "Underneath Completions Conceded When the Defender's Team has a Huge Lead" (UCCWTDTHAHL) category, but I doubt it.

You know I'm a big fan of analytics, but some things are unquantifiable, and I don't believe that the Browns' coverage guys sucked that bad at all.

PFF does a great job of blaming (or crediting) the right people for deflections, drops, completions, etc in a competitive game, but really can't hit the broad side of a barn in garbage time.

The easiest way to figure this out would be to separate the two halves of the game, and emphasize the first half, when the game was competitive.

Burrow was deadly. His Offensive Line protected him well.  But the Browns mostly stuffed the run, and started pressuring him and then sacking him.

I guarantee you that PFF's first half coverage grades for the Browns are much higher than their overall grades, and this more accurately describes the Browns' Defense.

Clearly, there are issues: The Linebackers suck in coverage. Karl Joseph was decent, but the rest of the safeties were mediocre (especially Ronnie Harrison, who sucked).

But the cornerbacks (notably Rodney Mitchellfield you...) were pretty good, as were most of the Defensive Linemen.  They stuffed Mixon, and came through in the clutch more often than not.

Offensively, Comrade Stefanski turned Comrade Mayfield loose (which I admit I would not have done: I would have run a lot more).

But these were (huge) rollouts, with Mayfield charging forward when he threw (like Montana/Young/Garcia).

He starts out running backward, then loops back toward the Iine, way outside the pocket. Inside passrushers or blitzers are irrelevant, and so is one of the edge guys.  The other one has to...well the Offensive Tackle lets him get by as he attacks the "pocket", then shoves him into the bleachers when he tries to get back outside to intercept the Quarterback as he loops back toward the line closer to the sideline, see?

(This might be new for Stefanski, by the way.  I could be wrong, but I don't think he used this extreme kind of rollout with Keenum or Cousins.)

Anyway, it gives the receivers all day to get open, see? The QB doesn't even turn back downfield for 2.5 or 3 seconds, and then he has 3-5 more seconds before he reaches the LOS (he can slow down as much as the guys chasing him allow).

Running vertically, he can see most of the field. He can use his forward momentum to thow harder or deeper (his TD to OBJ was off a big rollout to his left).

It's always supposed to go deep off this kind of rollout (or get the QB a few yards on the ground, if all else fails...which is why guys sometimes come out of coverage to head him off at the pass tee-hee).

Stefanski's overall game-plan was really good (because it worked.)

I'll bet that after the game, Comrade Mayfield said something like this to Burrow: "I wish I could say 'aint gonna be no rematch'".

Comrade Mayfield is regarded by many as the worst Quarterback in the AFC North (that's right: Burrow is already ahead of him).

WOW.

On that inspiring note, okbye



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