Browns vs Cowboys: Alalyzing the Analyses and Predicting and Stuff

The Dallas Cowboys' Offense is the most prolific in the NFL so far.  Everybody rants about those four awesome Wide Receivers, as if this Zeke Elliott guy doesn't matter.  WOW.

I gotta be honest here: I got an "L" penciled in for this one, but thanks to Nathan Zagura, I'm fingering my eraser (I heard that!  No more comments from the peanut gallery!).

Prescott's one weakness is vs "base" pressure.  He excels vs the blitze, as well as in a clean pocket.

Then there's the deep passing stats on both sides, as the Browns' D ranks high vs passes over 20 yards.

As I've been posting, Joe Woods has been short-handed in his secondary and Linebackers.  This may be why he's been imitating Romeo Crennel and has "kept everything in front" of him.

Vs this Cowboys' team (by the way how long before we remember that cowboys lynched people and shot holes in cielings and herded innocent creatures to their deaths and they become the "Dallas Football Team"...idiots...)--

Vs this team, that coverage scheme might remain in place even if Ward, Williams, Wilson, Phillips and Vernon come back from injury.  This Defense might be able to slow the Cowboys Offense down a little more than the Falcons and Seahawks did.

Even Pete Smith doesn't seem to notice that the Browns' Defense is more talented than the aforementioned, and has now played 3 games (ie "preseason is over")

If Vernon is back, that improves the passrush as well as the run defense (I hate Vernon's fragility, but love his athleticism, freakish strength, and instincts).

Meanwhile, Adrian Clayborne is still playing hurt, but has been an effective edge-rusher, and Porter Gustin has been kicking ass.  EVERY Defensive Tackle has been an effective passrusher/disrupter.

I defer to the Film Room guys here, but it looks to me like this is a Bud Carsonian front 4, and should become a Carsonian front 7 once Wilkins and Phillips are both back, along with Harrison and Redwine (long story but these "Safeties" are part of the "front" in 2020).

Denzel Ward and Greedy Williams are obviously critical here, as Zagura pointed out: That's max depth at outside CB, so Kevin Johnson and MJ Stewart can cover slot guys.  It also turbocharges the flat-out speed on both sides of the Defense.  Duh.

The Browns D should give the Cowboys' Offense more trouble than they have faced thus far in 2020.

The Browns' Offense vs the Dallas Defense doesn't suck either.  

Yes, the Falcons and Seahawks (Ryan and Wilson) seem lightyears ahead of the Browns, but they're NOT.

Greg Newland did a nice job in his latest article, and predicted that Baker Mayfield would throw for over 330 yards vs this Defense.

He's right.  Comrade Mayfield will have to, to win this game...

But he is quite capable of it.  Always has been.  If you expect him to fall on his face vs this defense, you need a brain transplant.

The Browns can win this game.

Okbye

Browns Don't Fall on Their Face vs a Bad Team HALLELUJA!!!!

 On the verge of game 3 vs the R E D S K I N S, the local guys are doing a pretty good job of analysis, but I've had quite enough of the warnings from national and Washington guys about the REDSKINS' terrifying front 7.

Excuse the hell outta me!  That front 7 is about to confront the best Running Backs and Offensive Line it has faced so far.

Nor is it a conventional offense.  Check my last 3 posts.  

Even on 3rd and long, the Tight Ends chip the Edge guys, and Mayfield gets RID of it quickly (*burning blitzes btw*).

I also predict that Mayfield will run with the ball 3-6 times in this game.

Hey is anybody warning the REDSKINS about the Browns' front 4?  

Sadly, the Browns only got Kevin Johnson back from injury (not Wilkins, Williams, or Pegleg Vernon), but Johnson is a definite upgrade in the slot and for outside depth.

Green is up from the practice squad, and should be good situationally, and Ronny Harrison should be assuming a bigger role.

Bye 4 now...

Halftime update: LB Smith and SS Joseph intercepted passes (great return by Joseph), and the Browns Offense delivered (eventually, with that help).

Patsco Postscript: The REDSKINS Defense (even without Young, who was injured early), gave the Browns' Offense hell, until well into the 4th quarter, when they seemed to have worn down.

The Browns have so far converted around 33% of their third downs, which is irritating, but here Comrade Mayfield converted two 4th and a miles (one to OBJ), but the fact that they were in those situations in the first place is also very irritating, as this game could easily have swung the other way.

Still, 3 games in after no preseason and banged up, things are looking up.

DE Porter Gustin is making his mark behind Clayborne, so the Browns have good depth at DE (even excluding Sheldon Richardson).  Now, if they could just get Pegleg Vernon healthy for one game in a row thank you John Dorsey...

Is anybody surprised that Pegleg Vernon isn't healthy? 

Looking back over John Dorsey's tenure as Browns' GM, it's a mixed bag full of hits and misses.

Wyatt Teller, who PFF accuses of being the best Offensive Lineman on this team through 3 games, was his guy.

Dorsey signed Kareem Hunt for peanuts. The Kizer for Randall trade was awesome.  Dorsey drafted Mayfield 1st overall (jury still out there), but then Denzel Ward, Mack Wilson, Sione Takitaki, Nick Chubb, Redwine...

Dorsey signed Sheldon Richardson (and Porter Gustin, I think), so John Dorsey had a real eye for talent...except...

He traded away Jabrill Peppers, Kevin Zeitler, a first and a third round draft pick for Vernon and Beckham, both of which had missed over 40% of their carreer games to injuries, and one of which (Vernon) was over 30.

I read a dumbass article about how analytics might work "this time"--as if Zeitler, Tretter, Njoku, Ogunjobi, Peppers, DeValve etc were all bumbs, or as if Hue Jackson didn’t pick Kessler and Kizer (or you know: coach the TEAM)?!?

Be glad Dorsey was fired before he could do more damage to the cap and draft capital.

As it is, they’re paying Vernon to rehab and OBJ to be “one of the guys”, and missing Peppers and those draft picks no get this straight:

Had Paul Depodesta run this show uninterrupted, the Browns would still have Peppers and Zietler and not Vernon or Beckham; they’d have 10+mil more than they have now in cap space, and Berry could have drafted Mayfield as easily as Dorsey did.

Okbye

The R E D S K I N S aren't a match for the Browns. Uh-oh Brown is a COLOR--GET OVER IT Gdammit

MKC says that Chase Young and his fellow Defensive Linemen pose a more serious threat to Baker Mayfield than either the Ravens or Bengals did.

You might be surprised by that, but the Ravens' passrush aint all that until opposing offenses are too far behind to run any more.

As Mary Kay explained, however, Mayfield was almost perfect in play-action in the first half vs the Bengals, and then excellent in true pass sets (after the Browns had a nice lead and were expected to run) in the second half.

Some of these Fantasy Radio guys "faded" Nick Chubb due to that scary R E D S K I N front 4, but the R E D S K I N S aren't as dominant vs the run, and that front 4 is only about 38% of their Defense.

The REDSKINS' overall Defense is pretty good, but these Fantasy guys seem to have no respect for Stefanski's scheme, Mayfield, or his Offensive Line.

Other Fantasy guys later in the day made more sense (as they must have read MKC's article).

Chase Young is said by some to be better than Myles Garrett, and is proving to be at least a match for him.

The Browns should use 2 Tight Ends a lot again, so they can chip Young and Kerrigan on conventional passes, but the rollouts used vs the Bengals last week should also monkey-wrench that passrush.

Mary Kay cited PFF stats for passes outside the pocket: Mayfield was deadly on those vs the Bengals.  (I explain why in my most recent post.)

Kyler Murray scored 2 TDs on the ground vs them last week, which is kinda unfair.  Comrade Mayfield is much more athletic than advertized, but Murray could play Wide Receiver.

Still, the Cards are simulating the Oklahoma Offense that enabled both Quarterbacks to kick ass, and the REDSKINS aren't built to stop it.

Last call okbye

Browns Got Ballers, Reinforcements On-Site, Williams v Mitchellfield, and Stuff

 Elliot Kennel names five Browns who, 2 games in, look like ballers.

Right away, I have to throw a flag on Elliot, who talks about Khaderal Hodge's 4.39 speed.

What? I admit that I might have missed something, but I can't find any mention of that anywhere, and suspect that Elliot is citing a rumor he heard.

At 6’2”, that rare speed would have had Hodge on the map if it was official.

Still, Hodge is the gunner on kickoff units, so he clearly has some nice wheels.

Hodge seems as reliable as Rashard Higgins, but faster.  I hear fans axing MKC and co about Higgins, but this is business, and Hodge has edged him out.

I was obviously wrong (again) about the 2020 Browns Stefanski offense, as Hodge was on the field 59% of  the time.

They’re not running as many 2-back groups as I had predicted, and when they do, true Fullback Andy Janovich is often the second back.

Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb seem to rotate. Hunt is the 3rd (and long) Back, and takes over in garbage time.

It makes sense, now that I’ve seen it in action. Hunt as a WR is a possession type, whereas Hodge is more dangerous.

3-wides also command nickels, and no doubt Stefanski wants that sometimes.

It keeps both backs fresh, and will extend their carreers (they and their agents are probably quite satisfied with this arrangement).

But I digress: I don’t expect Khaderal Hodge to stop here. He should take over for OBJ when they trade him. I’m a Hodge fan.

Next, Elliot names DT Jordan Elliott for stopping the run.

Nobody should be surprised about this, or the fact that the rookie is integral to the DT rotation already.

Except, if Elliott is right, the 305 lb DT has been 2-gapping (a lot better than Larry Ogunjobi has been).

RG Wyatt Teller has shocked everybody, except maybe Callahan.

Teller was drafted in the 5th round in 2018, so he enters only his third season (he was due) for a big leap forward, (and I completely missed it damn me!)

But as Kennel says, John Dorsey didn’t.

Teller was always a great road-grader, but the scouting reports I read on him made him sound like he lacked the speed for an outside or wide zone scheme (so at least I’m not the only one who was fulla beans).

Teller is one of the best Offensive Linemen in the NFL so far per PFF!

He’s had to deal with some tough customers in Baltimore and Cinci, and I love this dynamic: Teller is the “enforcer” on this Offensive Line.

As Elliot says, the Browns run right a lot, and Teller just mauls somebody...

But meanwhile, Teller has been excellent in pass protection, too.

Kudos to John Dorsey for grabbing Wyatt Teller!

Sione Takitaki ranks 18th among NFL Linebackers so far, but Elliot is wrong: Takitaki can play every down, because he can play every LB position.

Aside from that, Elliot got Sione right.  Another Dorsey winner.

Next is DT Larry Ogunjobi:

His highly disruptive performance speaks for itself, but this goes hand-in-hand with Jordan Elliott, who I assume sometimes played the zero-shade so Larry could play the 3-tech (while the amazing Sheldon Richardson played RDE).

Elliot Kennel stuck to “young” ballers for his article, but speaking for the geezers, how ‘bout Sheldon Richardson (and Joe Woods’ creative use of him?)

Speaking of which, Myles Garrett has been playing LEFT DE (vs the Right Tackle) more often than not.

Joe Woods thinks outside the box. 

Olivier Vernon has never been any good as a passrusher from the strong side (as a DE or LB) throughout his long carreer.

Garrett has much better length, and is a beast. He overmatches any Right Tackle he faces (and forces chip-blocks and overt double-teams).

Check out PFF's overall defensive player grades.

Myles Garrett graded out at over NINETY, and had 9 hurries (and forced fumble).

Myles isn’t getting sacks (so far) in the new defense, but he’s kicking ass (NINETY per PFF!?!)

So far, so good, if you have two gliel cells to rub together: The RAVENS, new offensive and defensive systems, extended garbage time vs the Bengals, injuries, 6-9 new starters (depending on how you look at it)...

Now, defensive reinforcements returned to practice this week:

Mack Wilson covered well in college, sucked for most of his rookie season, but improved a lot in his last 3 starts 

Greedy Williams (DUH) is not guaranteed to start (over Rodney Mitchellfield) when he comes back, because Terrence Mitchell has been better than him all along, and the current regime doesn't care which "Dorsey guy" is better (Dorsey Kitchens always played the high draft pick...for some reason...)

Greedy will definitely upgrade the unit, either way.  He's the tallest and second fastest CB on the roster.

Kevin Johnson is a veteran starter who won the nickel job in camp, and looked awesome doing so.

There's no help at Safety, but veteran starter Ronnie Harrison should settle in and play at least as well as he had before, and an ascending Redwine is primed to overtake either starter (I'm not too concerned about Joseph, but Sendejo makes me nervous).

Anyway last call okbye

Scouting the Nameless Enemy and Stuff

 I'm watching the Arizona Cardinals dominate the team in Washington which is trying to find a name that won’t offend anybody.  

They don’t look too good.

But I’m alarmed by all the Baker Mayfield commercials!

How can he do all these commercials and still focus on football?

He must have spent at least 18 hours   driving around, rehearsing his lines, and doing multiple takes, even if he recorded 2 or 3 commercials at a time!

That’s 18 hours he could have spent studying films and stuff!

And now, he’s even drawn rookie Left Tackle Jedrick Wills into commercial-land with him!

How can this kid possibly do commercials while learning to play Left Tackle in the NFL!?!

All of the forgoing was satire. If you think a player making 30-second commercials distracts him, you are an idiot.

Anyway, the Ravens are also pulverizing the Texans worse than they pulverized the Browns at home in the opener (23-10 early in the 3rd).

In another intra-divisional scrap, the lowly Chargers are up 17-6 over the Chiefs with 6 minutes left in the 3rd quarter.

I’m listening to a Chiefs’ fan who is outraged by each and every play that doesn’t go the Chief’s way (it’s always their fault, since all opposing players are inferior, etc)

Wow Kyler Murray is all that 27-3 (and so is McLauren but I digress).

Early in the 4th, the Texans have closed the gap (23-13...oops 30-13 nevermind)

The Texans suck, right?

Only down by merely 17 points with 10:30 left, they’ve all but “abandoned” the run, too! Why on earth would any Coach ever do that?

Chiefs and Chargers tied 17-17 now, but this Justin Herbert guy aint rolling over (I guess Tyrod Taylor got dinged up).

Wait the...Washington team (wake tf UP gdammit) has stormed back...nevermind it was garbage time.  They’re toast.

It’s over for the Texans too (yeah they must suck, right?)

Pat Mahomes seems incapable of “taking control” in overtime (as was his annointment...or something).

If you don’t realize that all the forgoing was satire (making fun of bad pundits), you need to get used to me.

I am pencilling in a “W” vs the team formerly known as the “————“ next week.

Also, in case you missed it, I compared the Browns to the Texans (remember? “They must suck”?)

You people: The Texans are well-established on both sides of the ball, with good coaching and talent. 

The Browns have new Offensive and Defensive systems, at least 5 new starters (out of ELEVEN DO YOU UNDERSTAND?)

The Ravens are just that good, ok?

Those rare few of us who think with our brains see a very bright future for this talent-laden young team. 

Pearls before swine, and I’m watching a Biden commercial to boot wtf you people are doomed anyway okbye

Help is On the Way for the Browns Defense

 It's great that the Browns get an extra 3 days to rest, digest, and recover after bumping off a Division rival--and with the Washington...team...on deck (really?  Really, you people?)

Well, native americans do have a unique hue, but some tribes also used the juice from certain berries as a bug-repellant, and kinda "dyed" themselves.

"Redskin" was descriptive.  Not pergorative. And the vast majority of redskins took no offense to it, until hyperthenthitive guilty white people started tearing down statues and burning cities but I digress:

Anyway Greg Newland says that four injured Browns defenders might just be back on the field for that game (and they've been missed).

Cornerbacks Greedy Williams and Kevin Johnson were projected as 2 of the top 5 Cornerbacks.

Time for some corrections here:

Terrence Mitchell, per PFF, remains significantly better than Williams.

Most of us expect Greedy to make a big jump in his second season, but have yet to see it.

Mack Wilson was mediocre as a rookie Linbacker.

Since he covered well in college, we expected a nice leap from him in his second season-especially since he looked decent in his last 3 games in 2019.

...I don't know what Greg was watching.  I assume Greg thought Chris Kirksey was great too.

Jacob Phillips will certainly help, but he’s not a coverage guy (at this point).

Redundancy alert Jacob shared the field with Patrick Queen, and wasn’t in coverage a lot.

He has “stiff hips”, but he’s 6’3” and faster than most of the Tight Ends in the NFL.  He could be great in zone, off-man, and even press-man...

Ok well see Jacob can take away vertical routes in man, as he’s tall and fast and jumps out of the gym. He can disrupt timing.

He just has trouble changing directions, see? So your Njoku or Ertz or whoever separates from him when he cuts, see?

Smart defensive coaches don’t ask individual players to do stuff they’re not good at.

Lord Insideous is famous for mixing and matching “specialists”. Some of them played maybe 6 snaps per-game at first.

An Edge-rusher. A small nickel or big nickel CB. A Safetybacker. An inside penetrator who sucked vs the run.

I hope that Joe Woods is like that, because Jacob Phillips is unique.

And if a certain seasoned veteran doesn’t get it together shortly, Jacob Phillips could emerge as one of the top two starting Linebackers in 2020.

Quit dumping on Takitaki. See last post.

In fact, wait til midseason to lynch any of the youngest players, for glaringly obvious reasons.

...but open season on the veterans starts right now (ok I mean after they play the Washington—omfg ohhmmm...ohhhhmmmmm...)

Hey did you guys see that idiot at another game kneeling and extending his fist in the black power salute?

Oh you poor oppressed babies! I get it, man!

All a brutha does is attack cops with a knife, or try to pound a neighborhood watch guy to mush, or take a cop’s gun from him after bashing his face in after committing a violent robbery...

Out of a hundred incidents, you get 2 or 3 legit ones (and the cops go to prison) and RIOT over the other 97-98.

You’re spoiled brats, and have been assimilated by the Collective because you don’t THINK.  You OBEY.

No offense okbye

Bengals, Burrow, Browns, Analytical Assumptions, and the Browns

What a game!

As Steve Patsko points out, the Browns have work to do.  PFF graded a number of players very low-especially all of the Linebackers (BJ Goodson in particular--he sucked against the run as well as in coverage!)

I rely on PFF (and guys like Pete) to keep my inner-fan in line.  During the game, I was aware of missed tackles and stuff, but never thought they were that bad.

...I still don't, completely:

What I saw was a rookie Quarterback throwing pinpoint passes into excellent coverage (at least in the first half, before things got fuzzier).

My peeps were bashing the Defense, but those passes by Burrow were Joe Montanian, and you can't stop a perfect pass.

Then, late in the game, the Browns were in "umbrella" (prevent) coverage, and Burrow gobbled all the short stuff they conceded up.

...yeah, I question whether or not the geeks have found a way to consistently turn these situations into numbers.

In a Prevent, all the coverage guys play soft, by design (and the Free Safety stays deep).  The guys  up front pin their ears back and attack the pocket, but the coverage guys all just make sure their receivers don't get behind them.

I strongly suspect that PFF dings coverage guys for the underneath completions they've all but conceded.

I could be wrong.  Maybe PFF has an "Underneath Completions Conceded When the Defender's Team has a Huge Lead" (UCCWTDTHAHL) category, but I doubt it.

You know I'm a big fan of analytics, but some things are unquantifiable, and I don't believe that the Browns' coverage guys sucked that bad at all.

PFF does a great job of blaming (or crediting) the right people for deflections, drops, completions, etc in a competitive game, but really can't hit the broad side of a barn in garbage time.

The easiest way to figure this out would be to separate the two halves of the game, and emphasize the first half, when the game was competitive.

Burrow was deadly. His Offensive Line protected him well.  But the Browns mostly stuffed the run, and started pressuring him and then sacking him.

I guarantee you that PFF's first half coverage grades for the Browns are much higher than their overall grades, and this more accurately describes the Browns' Defense.

Clearly, there are issues: The Linebackers suck in coverage. Karl Joseph was decent, but the rest of the safeties were mediocre (especially Ronnie Harrison, who sucked).

But the cornerbacks (notably Rodney Mitchellfield you...) were pretty good, as were most of the Defensive Linemen.  They stuffed Mixon, and came through in the clutch more often than not.

Offensively, Comrade Stefanski turned Comrade Mayfield loose (which I admit I would not have done: I would have run a lot more).

But these were (huge) rollouts, with Mayfield charging forward when he threw (like Montana/Young/Garcia).

He starts out running backward, then loops back toward the Iine, way outside the pocket. Inside passrushers or blitzers are irrelevant, and so is one of the edge guys.  The other one has to...well the Offensive Tackle lets him get by as he attacks the "pocket", then shoves him into the bleachers when he tries to get back outside to intercept the Quarterback as he loops back toward the line closer to the sideline, see?

(This might be new for Stefanski, by the way.  I could be wrong, but I don't think he used this extreme kind of rollout with Keenum or Cousins.)

Anyway, it gives the receivers all day to get open, see? The QB doesn't even turn back downfield for 2.5 or 3 seconds, and then he has 3-5 more seconds before he reaches the LOS (he can slow down as much as the guys chasing him allow).

Running vertically, he can see most of the field. He can use his forward momentum to thow harder or deeper (his TD to OBJ was off a big rollout to his left).

It's always supposed to go deep off this kind of rollout (or get the QB a few yards on the ground, if all else fails...which is why guys sometimes come out of coverage to head him off at the pass tee-hee).

Stefanski's overall game-plan was really good (because it worked.)

I'll bet that after the game, Comrade Mayfield said something like this to Burrow: "I wish I could say 'aint gonna be no rematch'".

Comrade Mayfield is regarded by many as the worst Quarterback in the AFC North (that's right: Burrow is already ahead of him).

WOW.

On that inspiring note, okbye

Trade OBJ? YOU Finally Thought of it?

 I want to welcome everybody else to the "Trade OBJ" train, which I've been running since shortly after the idiotic John Dorsey trade which brought him here in the first place.

It sure took you long enough!

The clown in New York is partly right about OBJ not being the problem, but his obvious implication that there can be only one problem, and that it is Baker Mayfield, is more ignorant than not.

As you know, I said that Mayfield is a natural "distributor" who doesn't need a superstar Wide Receiver, and later that a big part of Mayfield's issues in 2019 had to do with forcing the ball to OBJ.

(Recall that everybody else was bemoaning how OBJ was being "ignored".)

Ah! Finally you get it!  It's like you've been telling me all along, right?  

Anyway, I blamed Dorsey Kitchens for that stupidity in 2019, but Mayfield did it again vs the Ravens, with Comrade Stefanski calling the plays!

And as I noted myself, Mayfield overthrew OBJ deep twice when he was wide open (which is why I was all over Comrade Mayfield after the game.  He SUCKED just as bad as he did in 2019, except was worse off play action!)

Mayfield explained that he saw "one on ones", and this Offense green lights these throws, even if the DB is glued to the target.  OBJ was the deepest target on those two deep misses (that I noticed), so I get the decision-making part of that.

But why is he still overthrowing this guy?

Well, he rarely misses Jarvis Landry (or anybody else), so is OBJ running West Coast patterns?  Is he freelancing?  The two overthrows I saw looked identical.

I'll let Jake Burns and co figure that out, but OBJ also drew an idiotic penalty, ran out of bounds, and had a couple drops, ok?

No, I'm not absolving Comrade Mayfield of suckdom (he was right there with Kirby and Hoover), but I just know that this Quarterback would have looked much better (possibly even above average) with Hodge or Higgins instead of OBJ.

YOU feel it too, if you're honest: On those two deep overthrows, these guys would have been near where the ball came down.

That's not real analysis there--Jake Burns might blow me out of the water in his Film Room tomorrow.  But I've heard from real experts that OBJ is a bad fit for a timing offense.

I'm not bashing the guy here, ok?  It's just that he's smallish, and can't rely on strength to defeat press coverage, or reach to make contested catches.

OBJ excels where he is free to improvise; to get open in a general area and let the Quarterback see him (ie an "old school" offense).

Antonio Brown was similar.  If either of them had been drafted by a West Coast team, we might have trouble finding them on Draft Kings.

Mary Kay Cabbott was on the money with the Patriots being the perfect trade-partners for OBJ:

McDaniels and Lord Insideous have obviously adapted their offense to Cam Newton, and it won't be a West Coast.  Cam was never accurate enough for that, but he's 6'5" and can usually see the whole field (especially when he drifts outside, with guys dripping off him).

He's probobly lobbying for OBJ, and it makes perfect sense.

Everybody thinks Lord Insideous's reign of terror is over now that Darth Brady is gone, but (cue the evil laugh):

The Bills are the main threat to the Pats in the AFC East.  The Jets and Dolphins have improved, but not as much.

(Evil laugh again) Lord Insideous just replaced Darth Brady with Darth Newton, and the rest of the world will shortly discover that Father Time has indeed caught up to Tom Brady, and that Cam Newton hasn't played his best football yet.

But Cam can't throw to Edelman and White all day.  K'Neal Harry has great upside, but is learning the ropes, and isn't a deep threat.

Too bad Rodney Njokufield is on IR now, but OBJ is still (temporarily) healthy, and for the Sith Lord, he could get them to the Superbowl yet again (cue more evil laughter).

So much for Tom Brady making him look good (instead of the reverse).

Bill Belichick is a tough negotiator, but OBJ's salary is no longer unreasonable for what he offers the 2020 Patriots.

Andrew Berry might be able to get a 2nd (or even 1st) round pick out of him if he includes lower round picks and/or players (possibly including Njoku).

I congratulate Mary Kay for finally admitting that the Front Office might not be not lying about their absolute commitment to a given player, for once.  She came up with the Belichick/Newton stuff (and the fact that the Pats have ample cap space for OBJ's salary).

It annoys me that Comrades Mayfield and Stefanski keep insisting that they'll get "on the same page" with OBJ (sounds familiar, no?)

I have to leave my "lane" here, and suggest that they're both obsessed with OBJ (or at least were until the Ravens' defense slapped them awake).

...and listen to Comrade Mayfield's own words:

OBJ wasn't double-covered, even on deep routes.  The Ravens seem a little less star-struck by OBJ than the Browns Head Coach and Quarterback are.

I feel optimistic about the Thursday Night battle of Ohio, as I assume that the Comrades will have had time to note that Hunt and Chubb averaged 5.5 and 6 ypc respectively---including when trailing by 18 and 25 points.

I assume that the home team will do the obvious.

...don't get me wrong here: I'm NOT bashing Comrade Srefanski for not running the ball down by  over 30 points late in the third quarter (ps I can spell my name right too).

But the Bengals defense isn't the Ravens defense, and I don't forsee the Bengals offense humiliating the Browns' defense like the Ravens did.  

I admit that I think Joe Burrow will prove better than Mayfield ultimately, but not yet, and it's a tad premature to call Myles Garrett a bust (along with Sedejo, Joseph, Ward and...everybody else (the sky is falling we're all gonna die where's my underwear)...

The Bengals are highly underrated, and enter 2020 with established offensive and defensive systems, along with fewer new players, and Burrow is no joke, but if the Browns run the ball, they should win.

It really is that simple.  You d...

Nuff said.  If the Browns lose this one I'll have a torch in one hand and a rope (or a pitchfork) in the other...

But where tf do we go from there!?!

Ravens Scrape By Browns in Opener, Just Barely

As I write this, the Browns are trailing the Ravens (38-6) with 4 minutes left.  They just punted on 4th and 12. (Update: 2 minute warning).

I am skeptical about a Browns win here.

I'm not very surprised.

There was no preseason this year, and teams with continuity have a huge advantage over teams with new Coaches/systems/players.

Yeah yeah I bashed Fantasy guys who projected a Ravens blowout based on 2019 stats, and predicted a competitive game, but don't Donald Trump me over that:

The Browns were "in it" initially, but penalties and turnovers wrecked them (ps Nick Chubb did NOT fumble in the 4th quarter. That was a bad call backed up by "inconclusive" (bullshit), or whatever they call it this week.)

Ravens TE Andrews was wide open in the end zone for the Ravens' first TD.  That was a blown assignment, ok?

It is not Joe Woods who tells Sendejo or Joseph or whoever to ignore Andrews in the end zone DO YOU UNDERSTAND?

I got more:

Comrade Mayfield looked a lot like Brian Hoyer.  He threw it away (or over the receiver's head) every time he scrambled.

Twice (that I saw) OBJ was open, and Mayfield overthrew him deep.

He did this on purpose.  He was throwing the ball away.

There is something wrong with Comrade Mayfield.  He was always bloodthirsty, even through 2018.  He'd go deep every chance he got, and was fearless about it.

WTF?  Mayfield had at least two chances to burn the Ravens deep, and he deliberately threw it away!

TRUST ME: OBJ is in Mayfield's face over this, and so are the coaches.

And YES, I am officially worried about Comrade Mayfield.  There is something wrong with him!  He has regressed!   I can't figure it out...

Is there something in the water?  Was his record-setting rookie season just because he hadn't soaked the poison in yet?

But I'm deliberately a glass half-full guy:

1: I expect Van Pelt and Stefanski to get Mayfield's head out of his ass.  After all, all they need to do is make Mayfield himself again.

2: Comrade Mayfield indeed needs to focus on football (or (whahevah) as he’s...just... well he SUCKS, ok?

In this game, the Browns fell behind, which spells doom for any team in the NFL vs the Ravens.

But Aaron Rodgers might have come back.  

Baker Mayfield CHOKED.  

I can't figure this out!  Look back from 2018 through his College carreer, and tell me where Baker Mayfield choked.

The rest of the team was ok (believe it or not):

Chubb and Hunt kicked ass, and the Defense only caved in once they were down by 13+ points late in the first half.

I commend Comrade Stefanski for conceding the game, and treating it as a "preseason" game once a comeback was unthinkable. 

...okbye...except:

Comrade Mayfield's deciision not to kneel for the National anthem (but to support his oppressed and abused black brothers) demonstrates his lack of character, as well as his cluelessness.

There IS no "systemic" racism, and I can count on my fingers the questionable killings of bros by cops in 2020.

Most of THOSE (including the majority of those on the back of these cretins' helmets) were LEGIT (as if that matters).

Comrade Mayfield can kneel or stand, but he's still a sheep, a dumbass, and a Biden.

Mike Ditka is who Comrade Mayfly thinks he is, but well...?

And BLM is a blatently communist organization, committed to the destruction of capitalism.  They're dictating the DNC's platform...

Ah fuck you.  This is all right up in your face, and you think Comrade Mayfield's not kneeling makes him sentient.

I look forward to being dead, so I don't have to experience the destruction of this greatest nation ever.

I'm sick of clueless spoiled brats mindlessly regurgitating propaganda (and burning down neighborhood businesses, etc).

The fkng US Constitution takes about 1 hour to read, and the Communist Manifesto is even shorter, and these spoiled brats have read niether.

They're TOOLS.  Drones.  Sheep.

Our Department of Indictrination in action.

Nevermind okbye

Browns 127, Ravens 0. (Ok well the Browns' DEFENSE scores 30 points, so)...

I'm glad to see that most of the punditary predictions of the outcome of the season opener are realistic (ie the Browns lose).

I have a problem with Chris Pokorney's introductory analysis, however:

It was nearly perfect, except when he got to the Browns' Linebackers--citing their inexperience as the fatal difference in this game, and the fact that none of them were drafted above the middle rounds (here Chris implies that they lack talent, ok?)

All you people need to do is scan my last 5 posts to see what's wrong with Chris's take:

Why did Joe Woods ask Andrew Berry to draft somebody like Jacob Phillips instead of his uber-athletic teammate, Patrick Queen?

Seems to me, Joe prefers "downhill" Linebackers who stuff the run.

Then there's Karl Joseph, Ronnie Harrison, and "run-stuffing" Linebacker BJ Goodson.  Then there's the fact that former DE Sione Takitaki was a "starter" before Mack Wilson went down.

Then there's the types of Defensive Tackles who fill that entire room:  There are zero zeros (true Nose Tackles). ALL of them are quick-twitch penetrators first.

Can't Chris et al add this up? 

Sigh Joe Woods' Linebackers need to be real Linebackers, who can shed blocks, are sure tacklers, and stop the run first.

Honest, Chris: This isn't like first year Cornerbacks or Wide Receivers or Quarterbacks or Left Tackles, ok?

The best (off-the-ball) Linebackers read plays quickly (are "instinctive"), and as part of a Defense have clear gap-responsibilities vs the run (ps they fire into those gaps rather than hang around and try to ankle-tackle people).

Pokorney et al are no doubt expecting these youngsters to "take the cheese" sometimes, (and more often than not, that's in their NFL Draft profiles), but...

...stay with me here: In the NFL, a Linebacker rarely has more than two choices vs a run.

Sure, Zone-blocking and no clear or fixed gaps make it more complicated, but they still just stay between a Guard and Tackle (or whatever) and attack between them when they see the RB has nowhere else to go...

Chris Pokorney is also paranoid about these inexperienced Linebackers in coverage.

Sigh obviously Joe Woods wants to field five actual DBs who can actually cover, so that his two Linebackers don't have to cover much (remember: Queen vs Phillips).

Sigh don't expect Takitaki or Goodson 15 yards upfield in footraces with Ertz or Kittle (good grief).

Phillips might jam and run with a Tight End, but even he won't be asked to shadow him through his route (for now).

Joe Woods' Linebackers will cover in zone (when not blitzing).

Remember James Harrison (the dirtiest cheap shot artist in the NFL with the Steelers):

His biggest claim to fame was sacking Quarterbacks, but he was also great at knocking receivers out in zone coverage.

Harrison wasn't drafted, and was cut and stashed for several years, because he was 6' tall, and not very fast (*sucked in coverage*).

Once Harrison got his shot, he proved one of the best Edge-rushers in the NFL, but also caused fumbles and got interceptions in "coverage".

"Coverage" haha:  James Harrison backed up a few yards (to a predesignated spot), and became a human land-mine.

Really, you people...Big Linebackers standing there with bad intentions force potential receivers to (ahem) avoid them, and this is by design.

Still with me here?

In addition to screwing all the timing routes up, the Safeties and Cornerbacks can leverage their coverage off their predisignated human check-points.

Joe Woods isn't Dick LaBeau, but I strongly suspect that he intends to icorporate some of the same common sense in this 4-2 defense.

Chris Pokorney is a terrific analyst, but none of the yokel pundits seem to comprehend the obvious Joe Woods scheme, or why the "inexperienced" Linebackers (who were drafted low--like a lot of the Linebackers in the Hall of Fame were).

You get it? Joe Woods has the Linebackers he wanted, and it's not rocket science.

Jeez and anyway, you need to surround and attack Lamar Jackson!  These Linebackers Pokorney are custom-made to seal off his favorite escape routes!

If Joe Woods is as smart as my humble self, he will blitze (with a Linebacker) a lot.

He will press/man both outside WRs, trust his excellent depth and legit FS vs Brown...

Pearls b4 swine last call okbye

Browns Offense vs Ravens Defense, Fantastically Idiotic Anal ysis, and Stuff

The 2019 Ravens Defense ranked from 2nd to 5th in the NFL, depending on who you talk to.

They've held onto possibly the best group of Cornerbacks in the NFL, but lost both starting Safeties to free agency.  The overall secondary is still considered one of the best in the NFL by people I respect.

They have a fierce 3-man front including Derek Wolfe and new addition Gramps Calais Campbell, who (along with "Rush" player Pernell McPhee) can get after the Quarterback (and Wolfe/Campbell are good vs the run as well).

Ourlads lists Campbell as a DT, but he's 6'8" and plays everywhere.  He uses that great reach and power to beat up Offensive Linemen and get sacks, and they'll put him on rookie LT Jedrick Wills (ruh-roh!)

Wolfe is just okay, Campbell should still be scary-good, and overall this is an okay, but not exceptional front.

The Ravens also drafted a terrific Linebacker in Patrick Queen, who is really like an oversized Strong Safety.

LSU let him cover, run, and hit while teammate Rodney Phillipsfield came downhill and stuffed people.  We know LJ Fort here; he's a solid journeyman Linebacker.

Based on this tepid evaluation, you might wonder why that defense was so awesome in 2019.

Well, Earl Thomas, for one thing.  He was a beast of a Safety.

For another thing, Lamar Jackson and that Offense were so explosive that they pulled away from their opponents in nearly every game, which took away the run-threat and made the opposing Offense one-dimensional.

This is a fact:  Any Quarterback worth a nickel will start to force throws (and stop throwing balls away or eating them) when going for it is the only way his team can win.

...and with a Secondary that good, it just doesn't work.  (Please tell me you get this:  The Quarterback has to try anyway.)

Now, Campbell and Queen are upgrades.  Jefferson wasn't "all that" for the Ravens in 2019, but Earl Thomas was Earl Thomas, and (no disrespect intended), I doubt that the new Safeties are as good (*I haven't done any research on them*).

The Browns WR's are "up against it" vs these Cornerbacks, and Queen can cover Kareem Hunt too, but the Browns should be able to run the ball and hit the Tight Ends.

Don't go overboard on the CB vs WR matchups either (like the Fantasy guys are doing).  A healthy OBJ can get open in a phone booth, and I'm not sure if anybody has ever shut Landry down.

There's some anti-Browns bias leaking into these analyses, plus some understandable doubts about Baker Mayfield (who really sucked last season).

The new offensive scheme isn't much different than the one Mayfield ran at Oklahoma, and he's had some reps with a healthy OBJ this time.

A balanced Offense including motion, play-action, and quick-hitters can move the ball on these guys.

Verily, third and longs, or getting behind by a couple TDs, could make for a very long day for the good guys.  The Defense has to do it's part.

Jim Donovan says the Browns shouldn't go all-run all the time, but instead use their whole playbook, and I agree.

But that's really kinda built into the Offense (and Mayfield's brain) anyway:

This Offense really isn't conservative at all, any more than the Superbowl Broncos or last successful Cowboys or Stefanski's Vikings were.

If the Quarterback sees a mismatch or a soft spot, he will throw the ball.

Campbell vs Wills could get ugly, but the Browns have Tight Ends to chip with,  they can roll/run away from him, and without a firm pocket and at least a 5-step drop, Campbell can only go through Wills.

I know I've been telling you that Hunt isn't here to collect splinters so that a second or third Tight End can play,  but this game might be an exception.

Comrade Stefanski might run some 22's (with only one actual WR) to get that nickel Corner off the field and get another Linebacker on it.

I can't see the Ravens using only one Cornerback, even vs a 22 set.

There are variations:  Janovich-Chubb or Hunt, or Hunt-Chubb. (Expect mostly Hooper-Njoku so far at TE).  Then pick your WR.

The guys on NFL Radio are predicting a Ravens blowout based on where the Browns Defense ranked through 2019 and the absences of Delpit and Williams...

Then on how awesome Lamar Jackson was through 2019.

How dumb is this?  Let me count the ways:

1: The Browns handed the Ravens a 40-25 defeat in Baltimore last season.  In the rematch (with Vernon Davis and Myles Garrett MIA) the Ravens won 31-15.  (Points-wise, that's 56-55 Ravens.)

2: While the Ravens lost both starting Safeties from the 2019 Defense, and acquired Patrick Queen and Calais Campbell, the Browns' Offense drafted LT Jedrick Wills 1st overall, signed Jack Conklin and Austin Hooper, and also drafted Nick Harris and Harrison Bryant (*JC Tretter still Questionable*).

3: Both OBJ and Jarvis Landry played hurt in 2019.

4: I just roughed out the actual talent on the Ravens 2020 Defense.  How can a sentient being say that the Ravens 2020 Defense "woefully overmatches" the 2020 Browns' Offense?

5: When the Browns and Titans beat the 2019 Ravens, they did so by somehow managing to contain Lamar Jackson (ps Melvin Ingram they outplayed you.  You didn't "let" them do anything.  You got stoned.  Deal with it.)

Once the Ravens fell behind, the Titans and  Browns ran balanced, run-first Offenses, and knocked this awesome historic Defense on it's ass.

I'm not by any means predicting that the Browns will beat the Ravens.  I'm just calling the guys on Fantasy Radio dumbasses for dismissing this significantly upgraded Browns Offense so casually.

Their dumbassitude reached further heights of boobery, as they cited Greedy Williams' absence as one reason why the Ravens would slaughter the hapless Browns defense, despite it's own significant upgrades (see last post).

"All they have to do is throw away from Ward -snicker-".

Greedy Williams was below average as a rookie, while Rodney Mitchellfield (who is replacing him) has graded out as elite ever since he became a Cleveland Brown.

REAL analysts assume nothing in re Greedy Williams:  He has yet to prove anything in the NFL.

I expect a competitive game here.  The biggest challenge the good guys face is the Ravens' unpredictable, talent-laden, and hyper-prolific Offense.

The Browns' D has to at least hold the Ravens to a Field Goal on their first couple possessions, and that's the hardest part of this, because:

The 2020 Browns Offense can move the ball and score points on the 2020 Ravens Defense as long as they're not 10 points down and in 2nd and 10s all day (that happens when you pass on first down much vs these Cornerbacks duh).

The Ravens' Defense is pretty good, but only dominates when protecting a healthy lead, see?

They've built it that way on purpose, with those amazing Cornerbacks, and now Patrick Queen.  They get by with one Calais Campbell and Free Agents named Joe for "filler".

(*Ok well their odd hybrid Defensive scheme helps them sign and draft unique players cheap too*)

The Cleveland Browns are the more talented team here.  If you think Lamar Jackson trumps everything else, you need a brain transplant.

I'll concede that the Ravens 2020 Offensive Line, Running Backs, and Tight Ends are as good or better than the corresponding Browns units, and even that the Ravens have the better Cornerbacks and Quarterback for the moment.

But the Browns WRs, Defensive Line, Linebackers, and Safeties are better.

Yes.  They are.

The Browns' talent is also more "balanced":

The Browns Offense can chip or avoid the venerable Calais Campbell, but the Ravens have Oliviere Vernon and a 4-deep rotation of penetrating disruptors at DT to go with Myles Garrett to deal with.

The Ravens now have Patrick Queen at Linebacker (if that's what he is), but...who else?

LJ Fort? McPh oops I missed Matt Judon!  I get to call even myself an idiot this time, because this guy is good!

Judon got lost in the Calais Campbell hype-madness, but he's only 28 (6'3", 275 lbs), 4.73 40).

I hereby retract what I said about the Browns' Linebackers being superior to the Ravens' crew, and also about Campbell being their only passrush threat.

Campbell is a true Defensive Lineman, but Judon is a prototypical 3-4 OLB, which makes comparing him to the Browns' 4-3 types complicated.

Still, with (tecnically) Queen and Campbell listed as Linebackers, I...

Well it's a draw.

Quit ignoring Rodney Phillipsfield and brushing Takitakifield off like lint, and pretending Goodsonfield doesn't even exist.  Judon and Queen don't erase them.

But I digress:  Judon was there when Nick Chubb racked up over 160 yards on these guys, and won't make a big difference vs the run this time either.

This will be a tough game.  You have to lean toward the Ravens due to their well-established systems and veteran roster, but predicting a Ravens blowout is idiotic.

Just sayin okbye