Friday, June 5, 2020

Try to Stop 2020 Browns Running Game. Browns LBs Worst in NFL? Stuporstition, Sadism, and the Browns

Note to Terry Pluto fans asking dumb questions:

The West Coast offense is a passing offense with careful timing and crossing routes.

The Shanahan offense uses West Coast principles for passes, but what separates it from other schemes is the run-blocking.  There is no conflict in here anywhere.  Everything fits just fine.

The West Coast was an offshoot of Don Coryall's Chargers offense (Norv Turner runs something like that today).  The run-blocking could done any way you wanted, and indeed I'm not even sure zone-blocking existed back then.

According to Pro Football Outsiders, Vince Lombardi was the first guy to draw up and use zone-blocking, but it was a solution to stunts and stacks; a situational remedy to defensive tactics.

Alex Gibbs took it farther, but it was Mike Shanahan who went "all-in" with zone-blocking when he took over the Denver Broncos (and quickly won 2 Superbowls).

John Elway's backup, Gary Kubiak, took this system with him into coaching, and after a Superbowl of his own, he got to influence Kevin Stefanski, who had previously been "raised" by West Coast Brad Childress.

Kubiak and Stefanski have made some tweaks here and there, of course, but it looks like the 2/3 Tight End tweak is Stefanski's own (based on this offseason--Hooper and Bryant, with Njoku's 5th year option picked up).

Combined with a newly-acquired Fullback, it's clear that Hue Jackson and Freddie Kitchens have left the building.

I know you're used to hearing coaches talk about running the ball, and then passing 60% of the time anyway, but that's over.

Stefanski's Vikings and Shanahan's 49ers were the 2nd and 4th-ranked running teams in the NFL, and in addition to 2 more Tight Ends and 2 Fullbacks, the Browns have also added Wills and Conklin.

Nick Chubb barely got edged out for the rushing title in 2019, and Kareem Hunt WON it in his rookie season--and they're both big, strong, durable runners (*Hunt kicked ass as a lead-blocker by the way*)

Certainly, a dominating run game sets up great deep-strike opportunities off play-action, but that's not how Stefanski sees it (in my opinion):

Hue or Freddie see it like that:  You run until they have to come up to stop you, then you throw it over their heads.

That's not what the 49ers did!  THEY ran the ball 3, 5, 7 or more times in a ROW.  THEY kept running after there was an 8-man box, and things looked ripe for a deep strike.

Why?  Well for one thing, why not?  If the defense can't stop you, why stop running?

There are 3 reasons:

1: To sell tickets and make receivers and Quarterbacks happy.

2: Because well...that's just how it's done!

3: Because you feel sorry for the defense you are humiliating and pounding into pudding, and want to put it out of it's misery.

There are concerns about the 2020 defense (mainly the linebackers).  Then there's this Democrat Virus bullshit, and all the new players and the new systems.

Listen to the real experts, and even a lot of them expect the 2020 Browns to finish 3rd in the AFC North.

Well -SNAP-SNAP- this is IMPORTANT:

The ONLY sure way to beat another team is to overpower it's defense on the ground.  It doesn't matter what the pundits said or the point spread is.  Their awesome cornerbacks, safeties, passrushers are irrelevant.  

YOUR offense will run more plays.  They will be aggressive and physical plays and will weaken the other defense play by play and quarter by quarter as your big guys hit and bully their guys over and over and over again.

They know they're screwed.  They're trying to claw the ball loose, but otherwise...

The other team might have a scary offense of it's own, so they might be able to rack up some points.  But they can only score once per-possession.  Unless you turn the ball over or punt, they can't extract themselves from your meatgrinder.

If you want to see what this looks like, check out the Ravens and 49ers from last year (the Vikings are a lesser example--they weren't as physical).

Anyway, the 2020 Browns will be able to run on anybody, including the Ravens and Steelers, and I don't think Kevin Stefanski will be as eager to put the ball in the air at the first hint of a stacked box as Hue and Freddie were.

"Nah---let's keep laying the wood to 'em awhile longer.  They're not committed enough yet.  And let's give our defense a nice long break!"

I repeat: This Browns' offense can run on anybody, ergo has a puncher's chance to BEAT anybody, as long as they remain committed to the run, and don't outsmart themselves.

This foundation -snap-snap- is idiot-proof.  Zone-blocking is simple, and the runnining backs are instinctive.  As long as everybody has the snap-count right, it's very hard to screw it up.

Naturally, they'll have to throw passes eventually on 3rd and longs or inside the enemy 30, but that foundation is the most solid one an offense can have.

This offense won't "start slow", because it will be running the ball immediately.  It can work the passes in by choice more often than neccessity, and gradually expand the passing offense around that all but unstoppable foundation.

The defense might have more issues early-on, but I've heard Joe Woods talking about his players "playing fast".

Most of you already know that this means that Joe isn't planning to reinvent the wheel here.

Part of it is a 4-man (base) Defensive Line with specialized and definite jobs to do (rather than DE/OLB hybrids).  Man coverage outside (and I suspect off-man over the slot)---and the linebackers focused on the run;

It looks like 2-deep or single-high with the safeties...

Oh yeah a correction: "Dime" defense means 6 defensive backs, ok?  Woods mentioned a "third safety" in his dime, but that's his dime (or the one he was talking about).

A dime can have 4 corners and 2 safeties or 3/3.  Woods specified a third safety because this defender would have to stop the run as well as the pass; Joe is really almost certainly talking about a safetybacker.

Nor does this mandate a 4-1 front.  It could be a 3-2.  Mary Kay et al miss a lot of what Joe says, and make stuff up that he didn't say.

At any rate, a simpler defensive system favors superior athletes with great instincts OR who are aggressive and have green lights to attack.

Jacob Phillips is one such guy. Thanks to Dan Gilinski, I now know that Phillips rarely misses a tackle (Best tackler in College last year---led the SEC in tackles).

The scouting knocks I've heard on Phillips indicate that he takes bad angles or "guesses wrong" sometimes, and lacks the agility to cover in man, but I gotta say: I assume that Andrew Berry was right and they were wrong: Jacob Phillips will be at least a good NFL linebacker (immediately).

These analytics guys do a great job of breaking the Browns down in limited space, and they suspect that the Browns linebackers won't hold the edge, and that the Browns' D will get gashed on the run yet again in 2020.

This does make me nervous, except I don't think that the linebackers will be expected to hold the edge on outside runs.  I rather think they'll try to sneak between the big uglies and blow outside runs up in the backfield.

The Defensive ENDS in a 3-4 usually set the edge, except sometimes when---well without getting in the weeds I see where the current linebackers are vulnerable outside:

Takitaki haD a tendancy to overpursue (BUT can anchor and shed once he is more EXPERIENCED DO YOU UNDERSTAND?)

Phillips is tall but only a little over 230 lbs.  He can clearly shed blocks, but probably gets trampled if he tries to be a speed-bump.

Wilson can probably set the edge, come to think of it.  He's over 240 lbs and Hans and Franz have had a year with him.

But I'm from Cleveland too, and when smart people say opposing defenses are gonna gash us on outside runs again, I never say they're wrong any more.

Rome wasn't built in a day, and these outside and cutback runs are the main concern for the 2020 crew.

Vernon and Garrett are both outstanding vs the run, and their cumulative absence last season hurt the run defense a LOT.  The Browns played Larry Ogunjobi (305 lbs) at Nose Tackle (Richardson is even smaller), but now Billings (327 lbs) is here, and Jordan Elliott (Ogunjobi-sized) was productive at nose in college.

Jacob Phillips was picked over a bunch of higher-profile linebackers (including his team mate) because he was a tackling-machine RUN-STUFFER.

Some pieces were already here courtesy of John Dorsey: Converted DE Seoni Takitaki was a run-stuffer as well as a passrusher.  Mack Wilson isn't as instinctive as you'd like, but can stack, shed, and pursue.

Karl Joseph is good vs the run, and so is Grant Delpit on 2 good legs (I think Sendejo is ok-not sure).

While opposing offenses could still gash the 2020 Browns on the ground, there are a lot of reasons to expect nothing anywhere as bad as 2019.

Meanwhile, the pass defense has been massively upgraded!  A miraculoously healthy and undiminished Olivier Vernon plus Garrett plus Elliott plus Clayborn for pressure, but then

Ward entering year 3, Williams year 2, Sendejo, Joseph, Johnson, and Delpit!?!

I keep getting more optimistic the deeper I dig here:

We have an offense that can run the ball on anybody as the greatest strength, and a defense which could be vulnerable on the ground as the biggest weakness.  

2nd greatest strength is Baker Mayfield and a spine-chilling array of targets (including Hunt by the way).  2nd greatest weakness...well...Vernon is fragile and DE depth sucks...that's all I got.

3rd greatest strength is a top 5 secondary. 3rd greatest weakness must be the linebackers(?)  

More than one person has called Phillips, Takitaki, Wilson, Takitaki etc THE worst set of linebackers in the NFL.

First, that's easy: You check out which rounds they were drafted in.  Now you have a bead on their consensus talent level which, for these guys, averages out to the 4rth round.

Next, you check their PFF grades and NFL stats.

Next...well you're done.  E voila! The 2020 Brpwns have rhe worst linebackers in the NFL!

 While I would personally be pleasantly surprised to find the Browns linebackers ranked above average, these emotional spasms are assenine:

Jacob Phillips has an OUTSTANDING stat-line; awesome production at the highest level of college football AND is almost 6'3" AND faster than some safeties and before HE takes an NFL snap he's part of the worst 2 or 3 linebackers in the NFL?

Seoni Takitaki got few snaps as a rookie, but PFF graded him at 64--or average or slightly above.  As a R O O K I E DO YOU U N D E R S T A N D?

Mack Wilson sucked.for most of his R O O K I E season, but started getting it together over his last 4 games.  Everybody is just ignoring that measurable and irrefutable "growth spurt" and using raw PFF numbers to label Wilson a bust after his FIRST SEASON!

Mack Wilson's FLOOR in 2020 is Christian Kirksey's cieling.

I get it.  For a couple decades now, the Browns have been the Keystone Kops.  With each new GM or Coach, we expected something different, but it...just kept happening!

While I personally kept calling these annual doomsayers stuporstitious, I half believed in some sort of curse myself!  How many brilliant coaches and GMs have to sink in this quicksand before you admit that the permabashers are right?

While these last couple decades have been extremely wierd, I have this obsessive fixation with reality, rationality, and science, so I want to tell you:

Whoever declared the 2020 Browns linebackers the worst in the NFL needs a brain transplant (no offense).

While I'm personally incapable of experiencing it, I do intellectually understand how most of you people want to be "popular", so you participate in mass beat-downs or lynchings or whatever, so I get why you had to say the Browns had the worst linebackers in the NFL.

Nice job making Drew Brees apologize for...uhh...







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