Sunday, June 28, 2020

2020 Browns Linebackera Will Not Suck DEAL WITH JT

The 2020 Browns linebackers will be the weakest unit on the defense, but will be average or above.

There are several reasons for this:

1: Joe Woods seems to use linebackers as run-stoppers and passrushers more than in coverage, and this is what Sione Takitaki and Jacob Phillips do best.

While Woods is having all the linebackers learn every position for now, 3 of them will be on the field less than around 30% of the time.  When there are 2 or even just one, they could line up anywhere; linebacker is kinda generic here.

People seem to think that the linebacker position is more complex than it is in general, and if I'm right, a Joe Woods linebacker can usually just play.

2: Mack Wilson played worse than I had thought throughout 2019, but was learning on the job.  He'll be better in his second season (obviously).  How much better is the only question.

Takitaki truly flashed in his limited opportunities last season, and can definitely stack, shed, and penetrate.  He's a hard-nosed badass, and I even read somewhere that he was adequate in coverage too.

Phillips is the huge sleeper here, as he has the most physical talent, and excelled at the highest level (championship).

Coverage schmoverage--he was a tackling machine, and (honest, Virginia), you don't need a PHD to do that in the NFL.

At his combine, he weighed a little over 230 lbs, but at nearly 6'3", he has the frame to get much bigger and stronger (quickly; he's only 21).

Justice Sutherland channeled my humble self as he looked at 3 unhappy players the Browns could trade for, and came to all the correct conclusions.

Naturally, we greedily want all 3 of them, but Jamal Adams and Ngakoue are too expensive.

Adams, in particular, is a safety demanding edge-rusher money, and if I'm Drew Berry, I don't even want to talk to the guy.

As Justice said, Ngakoue (for the same money as Adams good grief) opposite Myles Garrett would be mind-boggling, but he and Garrett would gobble up over 40 mil/year, and it would cost a high draft pick or 2.

Alshon Jeffery is by far the most realistic trade target.  He is 30, and signed with the Eagles through 2021 at (rounded out) 10 and 12.5 mil respectively (around a 2.3 mil dead cap in 2021).

Jeffery is a deadly weapon, but, like OBJ, gets hurt a lot.  UNlike OBJ, he's a straight up big tall vertical/red zone threat.

The Eagles are getting squeezed by their cap, and know they can't get much for an older, injury-prone player, and Andrew Berry obviously has a great relationship with Eagles GM Howie Roseman.

It's interesting, but still kinda shaky: Jeffery would be the third WR in an offense that will rarely deploy 3 (unless Hunt lines up there).  The Browns now have 3 Tight Ends for the red zone, too.

But I really like how Justice Sutherland thinks.

Captain Obvious  Dan Justik says that we need to curb our enthusiasm in re Nick Chubb.

Clearly, you can't just stick a Kareem Hunt on the bench.  Even if you like one bellcow more than the other, running backs have the shortest carreers in the NFL due to the pounding they take, so you split the carries to protect your investments in both.

Smart running backs get this, and are happy to share the load.  It could mean one more big contract, or at least a couple more years at the end of their carreers.

I remember when Kevin Mack (the "crack-back" heh heh) and Earnest Byner each rushed for over 1,000 yards, and absolutely see that coming here.

Nick Chubb (unlike Kevin Mack) is actually an excellent receiver out of the backfield too.  Chubb hasn't proven he can line up at WR like Hunt can, but he should catch 40 or so passes for 300 or so yards, while Hunt catches more like 55 for 500 or so (he might well beat Nick in total yardage).

I'm blindly guessing that Chubb gets 60% of the carries, and that BOTH of them average OVER 5 YARDS PER-CARRY.

The math isn't too difficult: To top 1,000 yards, a back only needs around 65 yards per game, and Kevin Stefanski will definitely actually hand off (or pitch out) over 50% of the time.

That means at least 35 carries per game, and I predict at least 6 100/100 Chubb/Hunt performances (they each run for 100 yards) in 2020.

Obviously, Terry Pluto, if the Browns offense is dominating like that, they are winning games, and OBJ and everybody else (including Chubb and Hunt) is happy.

All these players want to win first and foremost, and football is the ultimate team sport.  

Certainly there are aberrations like Ebineezer Bell and whatshisname, but the majority of NFL players grok that a rising tide floats all boats.

Pragmaticly speaking, free agents from winning teams get PAID, so if your personal stats aren't great, the wins make you more valuable.

Another article I can't find now asked if the 2020 Browns could have several 1,000 yard producers on offense.

The answer is emphatically "Duh".

I just showed you how Chubb and Hunt can't avoid 1,000 yards each (on carries alone), and we already know that OBJ and Landry can do it because they DID.

OBJ is healthy this year, and has worked with Mayfield.  Landry played hurt in 2019 as well (kept his injury a secret.  No excuses.  Jarvis is old school and a badass).

Stefanski's offense makes it all but impossible to roll a safety to either WR, and they'll both be targeted deeper (*Mayfield's wheelhouse btw*).

4 offensive players are (assuming no injuries) locks to gain 1,000 yards.

None of the Tight Ends are likely to pile up 1,000 yards.  As you know, that's rare for even elite Tight Ends.

Austin Hooper got close to 800 yards with the Falcons in 2019, and DePoBerry made him the highest paid TE in the NFL.

None of the pundits seem capable of comprehending that David Njoku's post-injury late-season benching had nothing to do with his attitude, performance, or talent.

Njoku was benched because JOHN DORSEY DIDN'T DRAFT HIM DO YOU UNDERSTAND!??

Hooper is extremely reliable and blocks well.  Rodney Njokufield is a disciplined BRAIN from a family of disciplined brains (and athletes), and is a freak.

Austin Hooper can't match Ertz or Kittle, but Njoku can.  

I hear you: He's had some idiotic drops, and has a lot of work to do to prove he can be trusted in the clutch--but until then, he makes big plays.

Harrison Bryant will steal some reps later in 2020, and I've heard that Stephen Carlson (a converted WR) is very much in the TE "mix" here.

Anyway, no Tight End will get 1,000 yards, but Njoku and Hooper might combine for 1500 (and 20+ TDs).

The deeper I dig for weaknesses in the 2020 Browns' offense, the more impressed I get.

Right Guard is mainly an issue because each and every other Offensive Line slot is covered by a Pro Bowl calibre player.  An AVERAGE Right Guard (in this zone-blocking scheme) makes this a top 5 offensive line...

And Teller was competent, and Forbes has great upside.

Under Kevin Stefanski, the 2020 Browns offense could be historically good.

I'm as terrified by Lamar Jackson and the Ravens as any of you (who think with your brains), but well...

How is that awesome Ravens' defense going to stop the 2020 Browns' offense?

Ok stop:  NO, they don't just make up their minds, or outwit Stefanski.  

How does any defense stop an unstoppable cave man offense?

It DOESN'T. It CAN'T.

The Ravens' offense is unique and devastating, but get a grip here: The Browns' 2020 offense will be the 2019 Vikings offense on steroids.

Nevermind the Steelers: the Browns might well sweep them.  They can toe the line with the Ravens too--as with any team in the NFL.

Why do you think the mantra for every defense is "stop the run"?

Is any of this sinking in yet?









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