As the Browns' trash-talk piles up and the actual game in Cinci approaches, are you getting as nervous as I am?
I guess even us trained intelligent analysts have to fight Stockholm Syndrome after decades of "conditioning".
Part of this is rational, because, while the Bengals will be without a few key players (notably AJ Green), they really do have a lot of not washed-up talent, and an underrated quarterback.
Also, the Bengals five (mostly competitive) losses were to the Panthers, Steelers, Chiefs, Saints, and Ravens (I think the last couple sans Green).
The Bengals also beat the Falcons and Ravens. If this was all I relied on, I would say the Browns are in trouble.
Happily, I was trained to think with my brain, and to be thorough and systematic (just the facts, man). (*my research is not as in-depth as the Film-Study or PFF guys, and I sometimes miss some things they don't*):
1: There is the pre-Mayfield record and the Mayfield record. Mayfield is only credited with two wins, but this is only because he won the first game in relief of Tyrod Taylor.
In the real world, Mayfield should be 3-4...as a R O O K I E.
2: There are the Jackson/Haley Browns and the Williams/Kitchens Browns. The Williams/Kitchens Browns are 1-1.
3: Prior to this Coaching change, the Browns were one of the most penalized teams in the NFL. Since, they are one of the least penalized.
Almost inexplicably, Baker Mayfield had the highest "drop"-rate in the NFL before, and in the two games since (the "upheaval"), his receivers are actually catching most of the balls that hit them in the hands!!!
4: The Browns are starting a second-year tight end, rookie X-receiver and running back on offense, and two second year defensive linemen, a second year strong safety, and a rookie linebacker and cornerback on defense.
All these players will be better coming off this eleventh-week bye than they were before it. DUH.
5: Freddie Kitchens gets to review his first two weeks and refine his offense (plus aim it specificly at the Bengals).
6: Browns players have said "they know us, we know them", but that's not quite true this time.
Kitchens' offense (led by Mayfield) is new. All the rookies I mentioned are new, as are guys like Randall, Robinson, two rotational defensive linemen, and both cornerbacks.
As I've mentioned, Hue Jackson's intelligence value is almost negligable.
Todd Haley brought his offensive scheme (including language) with him; this was no longer Hue's system--and even Haley was fired when Hue was.
Kitchens' ran a radically different offense than Haley did, and they knew as much about Gregg Williams before Hue got there as they do now!
7: We can still go position-by-position here:
Green is doubtful (and if he tries to play through TURF-TOE that might be even better, since they can put Carrie on a receiver who can only cut in one direction and not run full speed, while putting Denzel Ward on Tyler Boyd).
John Ross has world-class speed, and great potential, but he's also a shrimp who has been unproductive so far.
Without a healthy AJ Green, the Bengals don't have a big-radius X-receiver. Boyd has been an excellent receiver (more with Green than without him), but without Green, the Bengals' passing game is unquestionably diminished.
Their new tight end Uzoma is just emerging, and is a real threat. But Schobert is healthy now, and Uzoma is no Njoku (or DeValve) either.
Left tackle Cordy Glenn is a guy I really liked myself prior to his draft, but he never became a very good left tackle, and is really underperforming so far in 2018.
That's a segue, because without tight end help, Myles Garrett will turn him upside down for his lunch-money on every passing down.
The rest of the Bengals' current offensive line isn't nearly as good as it was in 2017 and before.
Joe Mixon's recent stats don't do him justice, as the Bengals have been playing from behind a lot, and couldn't stick to the run game.
Mixon is also a really good receiver, but he's been held in to pass-protect a lot...(*I haven't dug too deep here, but suspect the Bengals got a Todd Haley over there so.......*)
Andy Dalton is a really good quarterback, but he lost Eiffert (again) and Green and plays behind a degraded offensive line.
Boyd is the real deal, but Ross has been nothing but potential, and behind them...nah!
What's the guy supposed to do? Aaron Rodgers can't overcome all that (as we have seen).
Browns offense vs Bengals defense:
DT Geno Atkins and DE Dunlap are scary. Especially Atkins, who screwed up two of these three Browns inside starters in 2017.
Dunlap will be on Hubbard, and that's bad too.
But the other Bengals' defensive linemen are just okay, and so far Kitchens has run a two-tight end base offense (including Darren Fells).
I've told you about how this can screw up an edge-rush/give an overmatched offensive tackle the edge.
Well, it also helps the interior offensive line vs the pass.
They have a built-in 3 vs 2 advantage on two defensive tackles.
Naturally, it's not that simple, as athletic defensive ends can stunt, and there are the inside blitzes and stuff...
Fundamentally, however:
1: A tight end can always line up outside an edge-rusher (unless he shifts rediculously wide), and make absolutely sure that the edge-rusher can't get around the offensive tackle outside.
Usually, all this takes is a "chip" to make sure the edge-guy has to stay close to the big clod (so he can get his big mitts on him)--after which the tight end can still go out for a pass (uncovered).
Sometimes, the tight end has to remain engaged, however. Dunlap could force that, because he overmatches Hubbard that badly...
This is where tight ends need experience, and to be selfless: they have to "skip" the receiver part when they see...
Too deep nevermind: What I was going to say is that this two-tight end set makes outside-in stunts AND inside blitzes more perdictable (ergo manageable) for the center and guards, and frees up the running back for passes more often.
Stay with me here: Baker Mayfield is already a top five NFL blitze-burner, and Nick Chubb has demonstrated excellent recognition, and can bounce outside as well as most running backs.
Still with me here? Freddie Kitchens has cooked up rollouts, RPO's, etc to further undermine inside blitzes (by the way many of these immediately free one of the two tight ends of the need to chip)...
I think Kitchens is the real deal. He's doing everything I (blush-blush) was wondering why Todd Haley wouldn't do, so he's obviously almost as smart as me! (Clearly, he reads this Blog).
Seriously, I think a BUNCH of Browns fans had Todd Haley outsmarted! Check back a few posts: I said Kitchens doesn't NEED to be a genius! All he needs is common sense!!!
But I digress: In the "Kitchens" era, Baker Mayfield is commonly five steps deep (instead of seven), which further helps big slow offensive tackles defeat edge-rushers, and he always has crossers, slanters, and dump-off targets; he gets rid of the ball quickly.
Atkins will probably blow some things up, lay some licks on Mayfield, and maybe sack him once or more (he's just a major PIA like that), but I think think this PFF top five interior offensive line can mitigate him somewhat, and I bet Dunlap is overmitagated by tight ends.
The Bengals linebackers (where is Burfict? Hospital? Prison? The morgue? Who cares?) are just plain BAD.
They can be exploited on handoffs, and by pass-catching tight ends and running backs too. Bad for the Bengals in this matchup, no?
Bates is an excellent free safety, and Williams a solid strong safety, but cornerbacks?
They're just a little above average overall, and NONE is a "shut-down" guy;
As Dan Labbe opines, both of these teams will try to run the ball AMAP, B-B-BUT, advantage Kitchens/Mayfield:
The CURRENT Bengals can't sell play-action nearly as well as the Browns; Nick Chubb is a BEAST, and Kitchens is...
Ok (see numerous previous posts) run/pass options are blocked like runs, see? The offensive line has no idea what decision the quarterback will make, and they just fire out and blast the defenders like it's a run...
...too deep sorry ok but see this Bengals defense is tacticly overmatched, and their offense physically overmatched.
Reverting to shallowness, I think Mayfield is already better than Dalton, Chubb already better than Mixon, the Browns OL better than Bengals OL, Njoku better, linebackers MASSIVELY better, secondary much better, current wide receivers better...
Going back to the first two paragaphs of this post, I think REALITY overwhelms Stockholm Syndrome:
If the Browns don't beat the Bengals tomorrow, I'll eat my lunch (and you can take that to the bank).
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