Monday, November 26, 2018

Texans vs Browns Preview: Browns can Win.

It's monday evening, and we get to preview the Texans play the Titans in 1.25 hours.  

I probably won't get to actually see more than the first quarter, but the guys on NFL Radio will keep me informed.

I do know that the Texans are very talented, and led by a still-emerging stud quarterback in DeShaun Watson.

In Clowney and Watt, they have a deluxe tag-team of passrushers, but Mercilus, Reader, and Dunn are also well above average.

They run a 3-4 with Clowney at right outside linebacker and Watt in front of him at right defensive end.  How do you block both these monsters?

Well, as I mentioned, the Browns under Freddie Kitchens have been running a lot of two-tight end sets.  

I don't know for sure about the Texans 3-4, but here I assume that Watt would line up in the B-gap between Bitonio and Robinson (Myles Garrett does that a lot, by the way).

It can get messy.  The tight end can make sure that Clowney can't run around behind Robinson, but the edge-rusher can still stunt into the A-gap, or overload the B-gap with Watt.

Bitonio has to deal with Watt, and that's a mismatch in Watt's favor.

I'm glad that Joel got a bunch of reps at left tackle this summer, because if Clowney goes wide and takes Robinson with him, he'll be on an island with JJ Watt -shudder-

Scarlett and McKinney are top-flight inside linebackers, and Mercillus is strong outside.  That's just plain an awesome front seven.

They have 28 sacks and have held opposing running backs to 3.7 yards per-carry.

Reid and the Honey Badger at safety?  Jackson at cornerback wow!  There isn't one player on this starting defense who isn't at least above average, and three of them are elite!

I was about to eat my gun til I saw their offense: The Texans offensive line is mediocre, from tackle-to-tackle.

Lamar Miller is a really good dual-threat running back, but not really a big-play guy.

They added former Bronco Damarius Thomas to offset DeAndre Hopkins, and that's a lethal combination.

I see here a two-tight end base offense like the Kitchens Browns, but the tight ends grade out as average and below average respectively, and I'm pretty sure they're mainly there to help Miller get outside and help overmatched tackles with edge-rushers.

And that's smart, if you have a Thomas and a Hopkins, plus a mobile quarterback and a total-package running back (and a weak offensive line).

Browns offense vs Texans defense--that's gonna be tough, but listen:

Baker Mayfield and Nick Chubb have been as good as any quarterback/running back in the NFL under Kitchens.  Stockholm Syndrome has us expecting the first elite defense to shut them down, or opposing defensive coordinators to "figure them out" or something.

The "figuring out" part won't happen.  Mayfield started over 40 games in college, including Bowl games at the highest level.

The Titans are up 10-0 hmm...

Anyway, nobody will "figure him out" like they did Sam Bradford or Josh Allen, because he's like Pat Mahomes.

And you can't stop a perfect pass.

And the Browns interior offensive line might be better than any the Texans have faced.

Here, the Titans' tight end Jonu Smith caught a pass and rambled for a long touchdown.  Njoku Smith aint.

The Texans just answered with a perfect TD pass to Damarius Thomas (Jackson and Miller marched them to the red zone systematicly).

They'll have a much tougher time doing that stuff to the Browns' defense.

Watt is really screwing the Titans up now.  He's amazing.  And terrifying...and there's the 3rd and long interception.

Mayfield (under Kitchens) gets rid of the ball much faster than Mariota does.  Joel Bitonio is much better than the Titans' left guard.

Obviously, Nick Chubb will get stuffed at least as often as not vs these guys, and the Browns will have to pass more than they want to.

Mayfield will probably get sacked at least once or twice, and get hit more than he has been under Kitchens, because this is by far the best defense he will have faced.

Mariota just marched into the red zone himself (more passes to tight ends hmm)

The Titans' offense doesn't compare to the Browns' offense.  If the Titans can do it, the Browns can do it better.

There goes Miller on a Chubb-like long TD off an inside carry.  I herebye retract my "isn't really a big-play guy" comment (how embarrassing).

21-10 and on the verge of becoming a blowout.

Dion Lewis has caught several passes and also been way more effective than Henry on the ground, and using Duke more vs these guys looks like a good idea.

Of course, Chubb is proving to be a terrific receiver himself, and is massively more elusive than Henry, so that's just a superficial statement.

But Njoku?  Definitely! 

These guys will make it hard on Baker and company for sure.  I might use Njoku in fantasy, but that's it...okay maybe Duke...no probably not these guys are just too scary...

The defense and special teams will need to step up if the Browns want to beat the Texans, but I think they can.

The Titans defense doesn't have a Ward/Avery/Schobert/Collins/Garrett/Randall/Ogunjobi.

The Browns receivers are also superior, along with their interior offensive line and (yes), Baker Mayfield is already better than Mariota.

I think Dion Lewis is amazing, but I still think Chubb/Johnson are better than Henry/Lewis as well.

The Browns are a match for these guys.

Defensively, I'd expect Garrett in the B-gap more than outside, and Avery blitzing more.  They can go up the gut and blow stuff up vs this offense.

Yeah, Jackson is a dangerous runner and improviser, so chasing him out of the pocket doesn't always work out well, but nailing Miller in the backfield is always nice, and they'll probably have Peppers mirroring/"spying" him:

The Browns can do this, assuming the Texans stick with their two-tight ends.  

Understand, by "mirror", I mean Peppers (or maybe Cousins) is 5-7 yards off the line...

Okay you see, when a quarterback rolls or scrambles, his receivers try to get right in front of him, because he usually can't see the whole field, and off-line throws are a lot harder when you're not stationary (too many moving parts).

Watson can make these off-line throws, but is, like ALL quarterbacks, less accurate with them, so Peppers or Cousins' mirror screws him up (at least a little).

Thomas or whoever can "come back" to him only a little, because he has to lob it over his "spy", high enough that he can't jump up and deflect or pick it off.

Lobs are dangerous as hell, as the defenders have lots of time to track the ball and react.

And of course if Watson tries to run, a better athlete than him is all set to come up to nail him.

Naturally, a Watson (or Mahomes or Mayfield) can charge the line to sucker the spy toward him, and then throw it over his head...

Well nothing is perfect.  If it was, Bill Belichick would have won the last 12 Superbowls.  

I'm just guessing.  Gregg Williams might just write Watson's run-threat off and focus on blowing his backfield up.

The Titans just got another touchdown.  I'm feeling more confident by the minute here...

The Titans are putting up a fight here. The Texans will have (really) two days less to recover and prepare for the Browns.

They're sending Watt from everywhere (generally inside, but left and right).  How do you deal with this guy?  

Well, hopefully the Texans will be asking the same question about Garrett.

It's gonna be a fun game!







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