Thanks to Jake Burns' "Film Room", I learned more about football in general; these guys always see things I missed.
This one was about how well Baker Mayfield has improvised once scripted plays have broken down, and it's very impressive, because all these passes are perfectly placed, and very difficult throws to make.
I had thought that Baker was throwing off-balance, but Jake points out that he resets his feet and squares up very quickly.
What impressed me even more than what Baker is doing is what his receivers are doing. In all but one of his examples, Jake says the wide receivers he ultimately threw to diagnosed the nature of his trouble, and improvised their own selves to give him a target.
With Higgins, it's not a huge surprise, but fellow rookie Antonio Callaway is doing it too (this could be why he pushed Dameion Ratley down the depth chart).
Like Jake points out, Baker is playing like an old veteran already, but for Callaway to be doing the same is even more special:
Wide receivers aren't taught "diagnostics" in college, beyond just taking short routes deep and coming back from deep routes.
These receivers (including Callaway) are "seeing what Mayfield sees", and going to specific areas especially for him.
Freddie Kitchens certainly deserves most of the credit for Mayfield's sudden "improvement", as he actually has recievers in position to make these adjustments, and many of the scripted plays work as-planned.
Baker Mayfield never panics. He's a rare bird.
As Jake says, Mayfield is about to face a "murderer's row" of several badass defenses, so he's still got some climbing to do.
But see, that means that more offensive plays will get disrupted.
If Mayfield is sacked, that's that. But if he extends the play, he can still do a variety of damage.
This is RARE. These defenses rank so high partly because not many quarterbacks can do much once a play breaks down and they're "in trouble".
Aaron Rodgers, Big Ben, Cam Newton, Russell Wilson, Mahomes, Baker Mayfield (I'm sure I missed somebody---Watson maybe?)
Defenses are built to blow up pockets and chase quarterbacks around, because MOST quarterbacks become ineffective when that happens.
Browns fans know all about this. How many times has that bastid in Pittsburgh shrugged off sacks and made huge, heartbreaking plays on us?
Geezers like me remember Brian Sipe, the core of the Kardiak Kidz. Same deal!
Mike Lucas thinks Colin Cowherd needs to get Baker Mayfield back on his show and publicly apologize for all the stupid, ignorant stuff he said about him.
I concur.
Look, it's just sports' talk, and Cowherd wasn't personally attacking Baker; he was trying to analyze his potential as a pro quarterback period.
I don't hate Colin. I just think he's a dumbass.
Colin will hold off on his mia culpa, because he probably expects the aforementioned defensive murderers' row to uh...like "expose" him or something.
Doug Farrar contrasts Freddie Kitchens and Todd Haley (hardly neccessary, but he gets into the X's and O's of it).
I only hate Todd Haley a little, because he reminds me of my boss. He's a control-freak who refused to listen or adapt to his talent (or reality).
Freddie has used some trick plays and stuff, but really hasn't reinvented the wheel here. He's simply playing with the players he has, and not the players he wants.
Freddie has used three running backs, three tight ends, empty backfield-you name it! Defenses don't know what's coming, and this isn't anything they can "figure out" by watching film.
ALL of it has been at least moderately successful.
It almost seems like Freddie got a chemistry set for Xmas and is fooling around with it; just seeing what will happen!
He knows he's got the quarterback, bellcow running back, Duke Njoku the interior Oline, then Hilliard/Callaway/Higgins/Landry/many tight ends, and he's not sweating things.
Seriously, Freddie Kitchens actually felt like he could "experiment" vs the Falcons and Bengals!!!
He'll probably "tighten up" a little vs murderer's row, but still use a bunch of 12 and 22 (one back two tight ends and two backs two tight ends) personnel and...
All these are run-sets by the way, so Freddie clearly wants to face base defenses a lot.
Check back 250 or so posts: Duke can line up at any WR position, Njoku is really almost a wide receiver, and base defenses don't have the people to cover both of them.
...I'm about to start redundanationalizing my recent posts again, but I just have to repeat: The two tight end sets are big helps on passes as well as runs, and (this is new):
When your quarterback can run around and improvise, by the time the called play is past it's expiration date, both tight ends are downfield as receivers, and niether is covered.
The Patriots can't do this. The Browns can.
Mayfield again. Is any of this sinking in?
Screw the Mayfield vs Jackson "controversy". Some of my peeps love the "cold shoulder" non-hug stuff, but...why?
I mean yeah Hue lost all those games, but HALEY aborted the offense in 2018, and Hue is getting that shit shoveled on him too, and that's not fair.
I think Baker is wrong here. Hue failed (epicly) before Haley or Mayfield even got here. As I've tried to explain to everybody, the real deal is that Hue was FORCED to give Haley the keys to the offense as a condition of his politically-forced retention.
All this "defecting to the enemy" stuff is kinda silly.
For all of Mayfield's brains and talent, he's still a kid.
This is a game. Not war. Hue Jackson didn't commit treason by hiring back on with his freind and mentor Marvin Lewis...
That's for Mayfield, but some of you guys...
I know Hue Jackson failed historically, but he didn't do it on purpose. Yeah he blamed everybody but himself, but he's not an evil monster.
You don't need to STALK him for the rest of his/your life, okay?
Seriously, you're tracking ex-Browns and celebrating when they don't do well? That's almost as bad as the permabashers who track and celebrate the ex-Browns who prosper.
It's all mentally ill. Stalking.
And all this "cold shoulder" crap belongs on TMZ, because it's irrelevant.
In my opinion, Baker Mayfield overreached here in an effort to prove his leadership, (and obviously this made the stalkers happy), but it's irrelevant.
All that matters is wins and losses. This isn't a Soap Opera, or a gossip column.
While we can agree that cutting Mitchell Schwartze (and a couple other guys) was downright stupid, that was then. This is now.
It's time for you to bash John Dorsey, Freddie Kitchens, and Gregg Williams (or not).
STOP THE SOAP OPERA BULLSHIT.
I HAVE SPOKEN.
Tuesday, November 27, 2018
Monday, November 26, 2018
Texans vs Browns Preview: Browns can Win.
It's monday evening, and we get to preview the Texans play the Titans in 1.25 hours.
I probably won't get to actually see more than the first quarter, but the guys on NFL Radio will keep me informed.
I do know that the Texans are very talented, and led by a still-emerging stud quarterback in DeShaun Watson.
In Clowney and Watt, they have a deluxe tag-team of passrushers, but Mercilus, Reader, and Dunn are also well above average.
They run a 3-4 with Clowney at right outside linebacker and Watt in front of him at right defensive end. How do you block both these monsters?
Well, as I mentioned, the Browns under Freddie Kitchens have been running a lot of two-tight end sets.
I don't know for sure about the Texans 3-4, but here I assume that Watt would line up in the B-gap between Bitonio and Robinson (Myles Garrett does that a lot, by the way).
It can get messy. The tight end can make sure that Clowney can't run around behind Robinson, but the edge-rusher can still stunt into the A-gap, or overload the B-gap with Watt.
Bitonio has to deal with Watt, and that's a mismatch in Watt's favor.
I'm glad that Joel got a bunch of reps at left tackle this summer, because if Clowney goes wide and takes Robinson with him, he'll be on an island with JJ Watt -shudder-
Scarlett and McKinney are top-flight inside linebackers, and Mercillus is strong outside. That's just plain an awesome front seven.
They have 28 sacks and have held opposing running backs to 3.7 yards per-carry.
Reid and the Honey Badger at safety? Jackson at cornerback wow! There isn't one player on this starting defense who isn't at least above average, and three of them are elite!
I was about to eat my gun til I saw their offense: The Texans offensive line is mediocre, from tackle-to-tackle.
Lamar Miller is a really good dual-threat running back, but not really a big-play guy.
They added former Bronco Damarius Thomas to offset DeAndre Hopkins, and that's a lethal combination.
I see here a two-tight end base offense like the Kitchens Browns, but the tight ends grade out as average and below average respectively, and I'm pretty sure they're mainly there to help Miller get outside and help overmatched tackles with edge-rushers.
And that's smart, if you have a Thomas and a Hopkins, plus a mobile quarterback and a total-package running back (and a weak offensive line).
Browns offense vs Texans defense--that's gonna be tough, but listen:
Baker Mayfield and Nick Chubb have been as good as any quarterback/running back in the NFL under Kitchens. Stockholm Syndrome has us expecting the first elite defense to shut them down, or opposing defensive coordinators to "figure them out" or something.
The "figuring out" part won't happen. Mayfield started over 40 games in college, including Bowl games at the highest level.
The Titans are up 10-0 hmm...
Anyway, nobody will "figure him out" like they did Sam Bradford or Josh Allen, because he's like Pat Mahomes.
And you can't stop a perfect pass.
And the Browns interior offensive line might be better than any the Texans have faced.
Here, the Titans' tight end Jonu Smith caught a pass and rambled for a long touchdown. Njoku Smith aint.
The Texans just answered with a perfect TD pass to Damarius Thomas (Jackson and Miller marched them to the red zone systematicly).
They'll have a much tougher time doing that stuff to the Browns' defense.
Watt is really screwing the Titans up now. He's amazing. And terrifying...and there's the 3rd and long interception.
Mayfield (under Kitchens) gets rid of the ball much faster than Mariota does. Joel Bitonio is much better than the Titans' left guard.
Obviously, Nick Chubb will get stuffed at least as often as not vs these guys, and the Browns will have to pass more than they want to.
Mayfield will probably get sacked at least once or twice, and get hit more than he has been under Kitchens, because this is by far the best defense he will have faced.
Mariota just marched into the red zone himself (more passes to tight ends hmm)
The Titans' offense doesn't compare to the Browns' offense. If the Titans can do it, the Browns can do it better.
There goes Miller on a Chubb-like long TD off an inside carry. I herebye retract my "isn't really a big-play guy" comment (how embarrassing).
21-10 and on the verge of becoming a blowout.
Dion Lewis has caught several passes and also been way more effective than Henry on the ground, and using Duke more vs these guys looks like a good idea.
Of course, Chubb is proving to be a terrific receiver himself, and is massively more elusive than Henry, so that's just a superficial statement.
But Njoku? Definitely!
These guys will make it hard on Baker and company for sure. I might use Njoku in fantasy, but that's it...okay maybe Duke...no probably not these guys are just too scary...
The defense and special teams will need to step up if the Browns want to beat the Texans, but I think they can.
The Titans defense doesn't have a Ward/Avery/Schobert/Collins/Garrett/Randall/Ogunjobi.
The Browns receivers are also superior, along with their interior offensive line and (yes), Baker Mayfield is already better than Mariota.
I think Dion Lewis is amazing, but I still think Chubb/Johnson are better than Henry/Lewis as well.
The Browns are a match for these guys.
Defensively, I'd expect Garrett in the B-gap more than outside, and Avery blitzing more. They can go up the gut and blow stuff up vs this offense.
Yeah, Jackson is a dangerous runner and improviser, so chasing him out of the pocket doesn't always work out well, but nailing Miller in the backfield is always nice, and they'll probably have Peppers mirroring/"spying" him:
The Browns can do this, assuming the Texans stick with their two-tight ends.
Understand, by "mirror", I mean Peppers (or maybe Cousins) is 5-7 yards off the line...
Okay you see, when a quarterback rolls or scrambles, his receivers try to get right in front of him, because he usually can't see the whole field, and off-line throws are a lot harder when you're not stationary (too many moving parts).
Watson can make these off-line throws, but is, like ALL quarterbacks, less accurate with them, so Peppers or Cousins' mirror screws him up (at least a little).
Thomas or whoever can "come back" to him only a little, because he has to lob it over his "spy", high enough that he can't jump up and deflect or pick it off.
Lobs are dangerous as hell, as the defenders have lots of time to track the ball and react.
And of course if Watson tries to run, a better athlete than him is all set to come up to nail him.
Naturally, a Watson (or Mahomes or Mayfield) can charge the line to sucker the spy toward him, and then throw it over his head...
Well nothing is perfect. If it was, Bill Belichick would have won the last 12 Superbowls.
I'm just guessing. Gregg Williams might just write Watson's run-threat off and focus on blowing his backfield up.
The Titans just got another touchdown. I'm feeling more confident by the minute here...
The Titans are putting up a fight here. The Texans will have (really) two days less to recover and prepare for the Browns.
They're sending Watt from everywhere (generally inside, but left and right). How do you deal with this guy?
Well, hopefully the Texans will be asking the same question about Garrett.
It's gonna be a fun game!
I probably won't get to actually see more than the first quarter, but the guys on NFL Radio will keep me informed.
I do know that the Texans are very talented, and led by a still-emerging stud quarterback in DeShaun Watson.
In Clowney and Watt, they have a deluxe tag-team of passrushers, but Mercilus, Reader, and Dunn are also well above average.
They run a 3-4 with Clowney at right outside linebacker and Watt in front of him at right defensive end. How do you block both these monsters?
Well, as I mentioned, the Browns under Freddie Kitchens have been running a lot of two-tight end sets.
I don't know for sure about the Texans 3-4, but here I assume that Watt would line up in the B-gap between Bitonio and Robinson (Myles Garrett does that a lot, by the way).
It can get messy. The tight end can make sure that Clowney can't run around behind Robinson, but the edge-rusher can still stunt into the A-gap, or overload the B-gap with Watt.
Bitonio has to deal with Watt, and that's a mismatch in Watt's favor.
I'm glad that Joel got a bunch of reps at left tackle this summer, because if Clowney goes wide and takes Robinson with him, he'll be on an island with JJ Watt -shudder-
Scarlett and McKinney are top-flight inside linebackers, and Mercillus is strong outside. That's just plain an awesome front seven.
They have 28 sacks and have held opposing running backs to 3.7 yards per-carry.
Reid and the Honey Badger at safety? Jackson at cornerback wow! There isn't one player on this starting defense who isn't at least above average, and three of them are elite!
I was about to eat my gun til I saw their offense: The Texans offensive line is mediocre, from tackle-to-tackle.
Lamar Miller is a really good dual-threat running back, but not really a big-play guy.
They added former Bronco Damarius Thomas to offset DeAndre Hopkins, and that's a lethal combination.
I see here a two-tight end base offense like the Kitchens Browns, but the tight ends grade out as average and below average respectively, and I'm pretty sure they're mainly there to help Miller get outside and help overmatched tackles with edge-rushers.
And that's smart, if you have a Thomas and a Hopkins, plus a mobile quarterback and a total-package running back (and a weak offensive line).
Browns offense vs Texans defense--that's gonna be tough, but listen:
Baker Mayfield and Nick Chubb have been as good as any quarterback/running back in the NFL under Kitchens. Stockholm Syndrome has us expecting the first elite defense to shut them down, or opposing defensive coordinators to "figure them out" or something.
The "figuring out" part won't happen. Mayfield started over 40 games in college, including Bowl games at the highest level.
The Titans are up 10-0 hmm...
Anyway, nobody will "figure him out" like they did Sam Bradford or Josh Allen, because he's like Pat Mahomes.
And you can't stop a perfect pass.
And the Browns interior offensive line might be better than any the Texans have faced.
Here, the Titans' tight end Jonu Smith caught a pass and rambled for a long touchdown. Njoku Smith aint.
The Texans just answered with a perfect TD pass to Damarius Thomas (Jackson and Miller marched them to the red zone systematicly).
They'll have a much tougher time doing that stuff to the Browns' defense.
Watt is really screwing the Titans up now. He's amazing. And terrifying...and there's the 3rd and long interception.
Mayfield (under Kitchens) gets rid of the ball much faster than Mariota does. Joel Bitonio is much better than the Titans' left guard.
Obviously, Nick Chubb will get stuffed at least as often as not vs these guys, and the Browns will have to pass more than they want to.
Mayfield will probably get sacked at least once or twice, and get hit more than he has been under Kitchens, because this is by far the best defense he will have faced.
Mariota just marched into the red zone himself (more passes to tight ends hmm)
The Titans' offense doesn't compare to the Browns' offense. If the Titans can do it, the Browns can do it better.
There goes Miller on a Chubb-like long TD off an inside carry. I herebye retract my "isn't really a big-play guy" comment (how embarrassing).
21-10 and on the verge of becoming a blowout.
Dion Lewis has caught several passes and also been way more effective than Henry on the ground, and using Duke more vs these guys looks like a good idea.
Of course, Chubb is proving to be a terrific receiver himself, and is massively more elusive than Henry, so that's just a superficial statement.
But Njoku? Definitely!
These guys will make it hard on Baker and company for sure. I might use Njoku in fantasy, but that's it...okay maybe Duke...no probably not these guys are just too scary...
The defense and special teams will need to step up if the Browns want to beat the Texans, but I think they can.
The Titans defense doesn't have a Ward/Avery/Schobert/Collins/Garrett/Randall/Ogunjobi.
The Browns receivers are also superior, along with their interior offensive line and (yes), Baker Mayfield is already better than Mariota.
I think Dion Lewis is amazing, but I still think Chubb/Johnson are better than Henry/Lewis as well.
The Browns are a match for these guys.
Defensively, I'd expect Garrett in the B-gap more than outside, and Avery blitzing more. They can go up the gut and blow stuff up vs this offense.
Yeah, Jackson is a dangerous runner and improviser, so chasing him out of the pocket doesn't always work out well, but nailing Miller in the backfield is always nice, and they'll probably have Peppers mirroring/"spying" him:
The Browns can do this, assuming the Texans stick with their two-tight ends.
Understand, by "mirror", I mean Peppers (or maybe Cousins) is 5-7 yards off the line...
Okay you see, when a quarterback rolls or scrambles, his receivers try to get right in front of him, because he usually can't see the whole field, and off-line throws are a lot harder when you're not stationary (too many moving parts).
Watson can make these off-line throws, but is, like ALL quarterbacks, less accurate with them, so Peppers or Cousins' mirror screws him up (at least a little).
Thomas or whoever can "come back" to him only a little, because he has to lob it over his "spy", high enough that he can't jump up and deflect or pick it off.
Lobs are dangerous as hell, as the defenders have lots of time to track the ball and react.
And of course if Watson tries to run, a better athlete than him is all set to come up to nail him.
Naturally, a Watson (or Mahomes or Mayfield) can charge the line to sucker the spy toward him, and then throw it over his head...
Well nothing is perfect. If it was, Bill Belichick would have won the last 12 Superbowls.
I'm just guessing. Gregg Williams might just write Watson's run-threat off and focus on blowing his backfield up.
The Titans just got another touchdown. I'm feeling more confident by the minute here...
The Titans are putting up a fight here. The Texans will have (really) two days less to recover and prepare for the Browns.
They're sending Watt from everywhere (generally inside, but left and right). How do you deal with this guy?
Well, hopefully the Texans will be asking the same question about Garrett.
It's gonna be a fun game!
Sunday, November 25, 2018
Browns Should Have Stomped Bengals Worse. But I'll Take it
With 12:13 remaining in the third quarter, the Browns have a 35-7 edge on the Bengals.
Terry Pluto's first half scribbles cover most of it, with some thoughtful depth behind it.
Gregg Williams has the Bengals where he wants them, and has let slip the dawgs of war. Joe Mixon/their run game can't help them much, and Gregg tends to blitze up the gut anyway.
Notable in the first half was (up 21-0) Kitchens went for it on fourth (and one or something).
I like it. Had it failed, the Bengals would have had the ball inside their own ten yard line, and the Browns have Nick Chubb and possibly the best inside offensive line in the NFL.
The Bengals just scored a TD (great pass by Dalton).
The referees are taking over, and have facilitated two Bengals TDs with pantload penalties. I think this is incompetance and not a "fix", but it's still infuriating.
On the latest one, Myles Garrett was penalized for not stopping in mid-air a couple nanoseconds after Dalton had thrown the ball.
The Browns just won. Everything I wrote in my last post panned out -blush-blush-. On to the Texans.
Notes:
1: Baker Mayfield had lots of time to throw. I'm not sure why right now, except I think the tight end stifled Hubbard, and Baker's mobility and the interior line simply did a great job.
2: Njoku caught almost every target.
3: So did everybody else (*you will see the Chubb TD catch all week. I told you before he was drafted that he is a good receiver*).
4: Freddie Kitchens is a freaking genius, and John Dorsey has to make sure he sticks around. He shouldn't hire any Head Coach who won't agree to keep him.
(Bruce Ariens shot to the top of my list when he said he'd keep Freddie and "consider" keeping Williams).
5: But I repeat that the ass umption that Gregg Williams must be replaced as Head Coach is ignorant.
Even if he loses a couple more games, Gregg (and Kitchens) will have engineered a major reversal. Williams (and btw screw his w/l record with an untalented Buffalo team in his first stint---remember riding Bill Belichick out on a rail!?!)
"Interview"---these pundits are clueless...but I digress:
The 2018 Browns can toe the line with any team in the NFL, and fortunately, the Saints, Steelers, and Chiefs are behind them.
They're the second-best team in the AFC North with the second-best (for the moment) quarterback.
...but I digress:
6: This defense will again rank low in yardage and points yielded, but very high in turnovers. It's still getting better, with two rookie starters, second year starters, and 2 more veteran starters from parts unknown.
7: This was textbook coaching/playcalling. Two penalties on the Browns were pantloads, and facilitated two Bungles TDs.
8: Kitchens, up by 21 points, went for it on 4th and one inside the Bengals' 10 yard line (rather than kick a field goal).
If you actually understood analytics, you would understand that the worst-case was the Bengals offense taking over well inside their own ten yard line.
You would also realize that Nick Chubb is a good bet to get one yard.
Pre-Chubb, maybe you just take the field goal.
8: Gregg Williams never went "prevent" (much). He kept sending four (or more) passrushers, and manning up on the outside receivers.
Generally, this win was between Baker Mayfield and coaching (of course I mean in addition to team talent).
The defense scored a touchdown off a turnover here. Had the Browns failed to convert that fourth down (and then score a touchdown), and this defensive TD not happened, the Bengals might have won.
I'm still not satisfied...
Nevermind bring on the Texans!
Terry Pluto's first half scribbles cover most of it, with some thoughtful depth behind it.
Gregg Williams has the Bengals where he wants them, and has let slip the dawgs of war. Joe Mixon/their run game can't help them much, and Gregg tends to blitze up the gut anyway.
Notable in the first half was (up 21-0) Kitchens went for it on fourth (and one or something).
I like it. Had it failed, the Bengals would have had the ball inside their own ten yard line, and the Browns have Nick Chubb and possibly the best inside offensive line in the NFL.
The Bengals just scored a TD (great pass by Dalton).
The referees are taking over, and have facilitated two Bengals TDs with pantload penalties. I think this is incompetance and not a "fix", but it's still infuriating.
On the latest one, Myles Garrett was penalized for not stopping in mid-air a couple nanoseconds after Dalton had thrown the ball.
The Browns just won. Everything I wrote in my last post panned out -blush-blush-. On to the Texans.
Notes:
1: Baker Mayfield had lots of time to throw. I'm not sure why right now, except I think the tight end stifled Hubbard, and Baker's mobility and the interior line simply did a great job.
2: Njoku caught almost every target.
3: So did everybody else (*you will see the Chubb TD catch all week. I told you before he was drafted that he is a good receiver*).
4: Freddie Kitchens is a freaking genius, and John Dorsey has to make sure he sticks around. He shouldn't hire any Head Coach who won't agree to keep him.
(Bruce Ariens shot to the top of my list when he said he'd keep Freddie and "consider" keeping Williams).
5: But I repeat that the ass umption that Gregg Williams must be replaced as Head Coach is ignorant.
Even if he loses a couple more games, Gregg (and Kitchens) will have engineered a major reversal. Williams (and btw screw his w/l record with an untalented Buffalo team in his first stint---remember riding Bill Belichick out on a rail!?!)
"Interview"---these pundits are clueless...but I digress:
The 2018 Browns can toe the line with any team in the NFL, and fortunately, the Saints, Steelers, and Chiefs are behind them.
They're the second-best team in the AFC North with the second-best (for the moment) quarterback.
...but I digress:
6: This defense will again rank low in yardage and points yielded, but very high in turnovers. It's still getting better, with two rookie starters, second year starters, and 2 more veteran starters from parts unknown.
7: This was textbook coaching/playcalling. Two penalties on the Browns were pantloads, and facilitated two Bungles TDs.
8: Kitchens, up by 21 points, went for it on 4th and one inside the Bengals' 10 yard line (rather than kick a field goal).
If you actually understood analytics, you would understand that the worst-case was the Bengals offense taking over well inside their own ten yard line.
You would also realize that Nick Chubb is a good bet to get one yard.
Pre-Chubb, maybe you just take the field goal.
8: Gregg Williams never went "prevent" (much). He kept sending four (or more) passrushers, and manning up on the outside receivers.
Generally, this win was between Baker Mayfield and coaching (of course I mean in addition to team talent).
The defense scored a touchdown off a turnover here. Had the Browns failed to convert that fourth down (and then score a touchdown), and this defensive TD not happened, the Bengals might have won.
I'm still not satisfied...
Nevermind bring on the Texans!
Saturday, November 24, 2018
Why the Browns SHOULD Beat the Bengals...Overcoming Stockholm Syndrome
As the Browns' trash-talk piles up and the actual game in Cinci approaches, are you getting as nervous as I am?
I guess even us trained intelligent analysts have to fight Stockholm Syndrome after decades of "conditioning".
Part of this is rational, because, while the Bengals will be without a few key players (notably AJ Green), they really do have a lot of not washed-up talent, and an underrated quarterback.
Also, the Bengals five (mostly competitive) losses were to the Panthers, Steelers, Chiefs, Saints, and Ravens (I think the last couple sans Green).
The Bengals also beat the Falcons and Ravens. If this was all I relied on, I would say the Browns are in trouble.
Happily, I was trained to think with my brain, and to be thorough and systematic (just the facts, man). (*my research is not as in-depth as the Film-Study or PFF guys, and I sometimes miss some things they don't*):
1: There is the pre-Mayfield record and the Mayfield record. Mayfield is only credited with two wins, but this is only because he won the first game in relief of Tyrod Taylor.
In the real world, Mayfield should be 3-4...as a R O O K I E.
2: There are the Jackson/Haley Browns and the Williams/Kitchens Browns. The Williams/Kitchens Browns are 1-1.
3: Prior to this Coaching change, the Browns were one of the most penalized teams in the NFL. Since, they are one of the least penalized.
Almost inexplicably, Baker Mayfield had the highest "drop"-rate in the NFL before, and in the two games since (the "upheaval"), his receivers are actually catching most of the balls that hit them in the hands!!!
4: The Browns are starting a second-year tight end, rookie X-receiver and running back on offense, and two second year defensive linemen, a second year strong safety, and a rookie linebacker and cornerback on defense.
All these players will be better coming off this eleventh-week bye than they were before it. DUH.
5: Freddie Kitchens gets to review his first two weeks and refine his offense (plus aim it specificly at the Bengals).
6: Browns players have said "they know us, we know them", but that's not quite true this time.
Kitchens' offense (led by Mayfield) is new. All the rookies I mentioned are new, as are guys like Randall, Robinson, two rotational defensive linemen, and both cornerbacks.
As I've mentioned, Hue Jackson's intelligence value is almost negligable.
Todd Haley brought his offensive scheme (including language) with him; this was no longer Hue's system--and even Haley was fired when Hue was.
Kitchens' ran a radically different offense than Haley did, and they knew as much about Gregg Williams before Hue got there as they do now!
7: We can still go position-by-position here:
Green is doubtful (and if he tries to play through TURF-TOE that might be even better, since they can put Carrie on a receiver who can only cut in one direction and not run full speed, while putting Denzel Ward on Tyler Boyd).
John Ross has world-class speed, and great potential, but he's also a shrimp who has been unproductive so far.
Without a healthy AJ Green, the Bengals don't have a big-radius X-receiver. Boyd has been an excellent receiver (more with Green than without him), but without Green, the Bengals' passing game is unquestionably diminished.
Their new tight end Uzoma is just emerging, and is a real threat. But Schobert is healthy now, and Uzoma is no Njoku (or DeValve) either.
Left tackle Cordy Glenn is a guy I really liked myself prior to his draft, but he never became a very good left tackle, and is really underperforming so far in 2018.
That's a segue, because without tight end help, Myles Garrett will turn him upside down for his lunch-money on every passing down.
The rest of the Bengals' current offensive line isn't nearly as good as it was in 2017 and before.
Joe Mixon's recent stats don't do him justice, as the Bengals have been playing from behind a lot, and couldn't stick to the run game.
Mixon is also a really good receiver, but he's been held in to pass-protect a lot...(*I haven't dug too deep here, but suspect the Bengals got a Todd Haley over there so.......*)
Andy Dalton is a really good quarterback, but he lost Eiffert (again) and Green and plays behind a degraded offensive line.
Boyd is the real deal, but Ross has been nothing but potential, and behind them...nah!
What's the guy supposed to do? Aaron Rodgers can't overcome all that (as we have seen).
Browns offense vs Bengals defense:
DT Geno Atkins and DE Dunlap are scary. Especially Atkins, who screwed up two of these three Browns inside starters in 2017.
Dunlap will be on Hubbard, and that's bad too.
But the other Bengals' defensive linemen are just okay, and so far Kitchens has run a two-tight end base offense (including Darren Fells).
I've told you about how this can screw up an edge-rush/give an overmatched offensive tackle the edge.
Well, it also helps the interior offensive line vs the pass.
They have a built-in 3 vs 2 advantage on two defensive tackles.
Naturally, it's not that simple, as athletic defensive ends can stunt, and there are the inside blitzes and stuff...
Fundamentally, however:
1: A tight end can always line up outside an edge-rusher (unless he shifts rediculously wide), and make absolutely sure that the edge-rusher can't get around the offensive tackle outside.
Usually, all this takes is a "chip" to make sure the edge-guy has to stay close to the big clod (so he can get his big mitts on him)--after which the tight end can still go out for a pass (uncovered).
Sometimes, the tight end has to remain engaged, however. Dunlap could force that, because he overmatches Hubbard that badly...
This is where tight ends need experience, and to be selfless: they have to "skip" the receiver part when they see...
Too deep nevermind: What I was going to say is that this two-tight end set makes outside-in stunts AND inside blitzes more perdictable (ergo manageable) for the center and guards, and frees up the running back for passes more often.
Stay with me here: Baker Mayfield is already a top five NFL blitze-burner, and Nick Chubb has demonstrated excellent recognition, and can bounce outside as well as most running backs.
Still with me here? Freddie Kitchens has cooked up rollouts, RPO's, etc to further undermine inside blitzes (by the way many of these immediately free one of the two tight ends of the need to chip)...
I think Kitchens is the real deal. He's doing everything I (blush-blush) was wondering why Todd Haley wouldn't do, so he's obviously almost as smart as me! (Clearly, he reads this Blog).
Seriously, I think a BUNCH of Browns fans had Todd Haley outsmarted! Check back a few posts: I said Kitchens doesn't NEED to be a genius! All he needs is common sense!!!
But I digress: In the "Kitchens" era, Baker Mayfield is commonly five steps deep (instead of seven), which further helps big slow offensive tackles defeat edge-rushers, and he always has crossers, slanters, and dump-off targets; he gets rid of the ball quickly.
Atkins will probably blow some things up, lay some licks on Mayfield, and maybe sack him once or more (he's just a major PIA like that), but I think think this PFF top five interior offensive line can mitigate him somewhat, and I bet Dunlap is overmitagated by tight ends.
The Bengals linebackers (where is Burfict? Hospital? Prison? The morgue? Who cares?) are just plain BAD.
They can be exploited on handoffs, and by pass-catching tight ends and running backs too. Bad for the Bengals in this matchup, no?
Bates is an excellent free safety, and Williams a solid strong safety, but cornerbacks?
They're just a little above average overall, and NONE is a "shut-down" guy;
As Dan Labbe opines, both of these teams will try to run the ball AMAP, B-B-BUT, advantage Kitchens/Mayfield:
The CURRENT Bengals can't sell play-action nearly as well as the Browns; Nick Chubb is a BEAST, and Kitchens is...
Ok (see numerous previous posts) run/pass options are blocked like runs, see? The offensive line has no idea what decision the quarterback will make, and they just fire out and blast the defenders like it's a run...
...too deep sorry ok but see this Bengals defense is tacticly overmatched, and their offense physically overmatched.
Reverting to shallowness, I think Mayfield is already better than Dalton, Chubb already better than Mixon, the Browns OL better than Bengals OL, Njoku better, linebackers MASSIVELY better, secondary much better, current wide receivers better...
Going back to the first two paragaphs of this post, I think REALITY overwhelms Stockholm Syndrome:
If the Browns don't beat the Bengals tomorrow, I'll eat my lunch (and you can take that to the bank).
I guess even us trained intelligent analysts have to fight Stockholm Syndrome after decades of "conditioning".
Part of this is rational, because, while the Bengals will be without a few key players (notably AJ Green), they really do have a lot of not washed-up talent, and an underrated quarterback.
Also, the Bengals five (mostly competitive) losses were to the Panthers, Steelers, Chiefs, Saints, and Ravens (I think the last couple sans Green).
The Bengals also beat the Falcons and Ravens. If this was all I relied on, I would say the Browns are in trouble.
Happily, I was trained to think with my brain, and to be thorough and systematic (just the facts, man). (*my research is not as in-depth as the Film-Study or PFF guys, and I sometimes miss some things they don't*):
1: There is the pre-Mayfield record and the Mayfield record. Mayfield is only credited with two wins, but this is only because he won the first game in relief of Tyrod Taylor.
In the real world, Mayfield should be 3-4...as a R O O K I E.
2: There are the Jackson/Haley Browns and the Williams/Kitchens Browns. The Williams/Kitchens Browns are 1-1.
3: Prior to this Coaching change, the Browns were one of the most penalized teams in the NFL. Since, they are one of the least penalized.
Almost inexplicably, Baker Mayfield had the highest "drop"-rate in the NFL before, and in the two games since (the "upheaval"), his receivers are actually catching most of the balls that hit them in the hands!!!
4: The Browns are starting a second-year tight end, rookie X-receiver and running back on offense, and two second year defensive linemen, a second year strong safety, and a rookie linebacker and cornerback on defense.
All these players will be better coming off this eleventh-week bye than they were before it. DUH.
5: Freddie Kitchens gets to review his first two weeks and refine his offense (plus aim it specificly at the Bengals).
6: Browns players have said "they know us, we know them", but that's not quite true this time.
Kitchens' offense (led by Mayfield) is new. All the rookies I mentioned are new, as are guys like Randall, Robinson, two rotational defensive linemen, and both cornerbacks.
As I've mentioned, Hue Jackson's intelligence value is almost negligable.
Todd Haley brought his offensive scheme (including language) with him; this was no longer Hue's system--and even Haley was fired when Hue was.
Kitchens' ran a radically different offense than Haley did, and they knew as much about Gregg Williams before Hue got there as they do now!
7: We can still go position-by-position here:
Green is doubtful (and if he tries to play through TURF-TOE that might be even better, since they can put Carrie on a receiver who can only cut in one direction and not run full speed, while putting Denzel Ward on Tyler Boyd).
John Ross has world-class speed, and great potential, but he's also a shrimp who has been unproductive so far.
Without a healthy AJ Green, the Bengals don't have a big-radius X-receiver. Boyd has been an excellent receiver (more with Green than without him), but without Green, the Bengals' passing game is unquestionably diminished.
Their new tight end Uzoma is just emerging, and is a real threat. But Schobert is healthy now, and Uzoma is no Njoku (or DeValve) either.
Left tackle Cordy Glenn is a guy I really liked myself prior to his draft, but he never became a very good left tackle, and is really underperforming so far in 2018.
That's a segue, because without tight end help, Myles Garrett will turn him upside down for his lunch-money on every passing down.
The rest of the Bengals' current offensive line isn't nearly as good as it was in 2017 and before.
Joe Mixon's recent stats don't do him justice, as the Bengals have been playing from behind a lot, and couldn't stick to the run game.
Mixon is also a really good receiver, but he's been held in to pass-protect a lot...(*I haven't dug too deep here, but suspect the Bengals got a Todd Haley over there so.......*)
Andy Dalton is a really good quarterback, but he lost Eiffert (again) and Green and plays behind a degraded offensive line.
Boyd is the real deal, but Ross has been nothing but potential, and behind them...nah!
What's the guy supposed to do? Aaron Rodgers can't overcome all that (as we have seen).
Browns offense vs Bengals defense:
DT Geno Atkins and DE Dunlap are scary. Especially Atkins, who screwed up two of these three Browns inside starters in 2017.
Dunlap will be on Hubbard, and that's bad too.
But the other Bengals' defensive linemen are just okay, and so far Kitchens has run a two-tight end base offense (including Darren Fells).
I've told you about how this can screw up an edge-rush/give an overmatched offensive tackle the edge.
Well, it also helps the interior offensive line vs the pass.
They have a built-in 3 vs 2 advantage on two defensive tackles.
Naturally, it's not that simple, as athletic defensive ends can stunt, and there are the inside blitzes and stuff...
Fundamentally, however:
1: A tight end can always line up outside an edge-rusher (unless he shifts rediculously wide), and make absolutely sure that the edge-rusher can't get around the offensive tackle outside.
Usually, all this takes is a "chip" to make sure the edge-guy has to stay close to the big clod (so he can get his big mitts on him)--after which the tight end can still go out for a pass (uncovered).
Sometimes, the tight end has to remain engaged, however. Dunlap could force that, because he overmatches Hubbard that badly...
This is where tight ends need experience, and to be selfless: they have to "skip" the receiver part when they see...
Too deep nevermind: What I was going to say is that this two-tight end set makes outside-in stunts AND inside blitzes more perdictable (ergo manageable) for the center and guards, and frees up the running back for passes more often.
Stay with me here: Baker Mayfield is already a top five NFL blitze-burner, and Nick Chubb has demonstrated excellent recognition, and can bounce outside as well as most running backs.
Still with me here? Freddie Kitchens has cooked up rollouts, RPO's, etc to further undermine inside blitzes (by the way many of these immediately free one of the two tight ends of the need to chip)...
I think Kitchens is the real deal. He's doing everything I (blush-blush) was wondering why Todd Haley wouldn't do, so he's obviously almost as smart as me! (Clearly, he reads this Blog).
Seriously, I think a BUNCH of Browns fans had Todd Haley outsmarted! Check back a few posts: I said Kitchens doesn't NEED to be a genius! All he needs is common sense!!!
But I digress: In the "Kitchens" era, Baker Mayfield is commonly five steps deep (instead of seven), which further helps big slow offensive tackles defeat edge-rushers, and he always has crossers, slanters, and dump-off targets; he gets rid of the ball quickly.
Atkins will probably blow some things up, lay some licks on Mayfield, and maybe sack him once or more (he's just a major PIA like that), but I think think this PFF top five interior offensive line can mitigate him somewhat, and I bet Dunlap is overmitagated by tight ends.
The Bengals linebackers (where is Burfict? Hospital? Prison? The morgue? Who cares?) are just plain BAD.
They can be exploited on handoffs, and by pass-catching tight ends and running backs too. Bad for the Bengals in this matchup, no?
Bates is an excellent free safety, and Williams a solid strong safety, but cornerbacks?
They're just a little above average overall, and NONE is a "shut-down" guy;
As Dan Labbe opines, both of these teams will try to run the ball AMAP, B-B-BUT, advantage Kitchens/Mayfield:
The CURRENT Bengals can't sell play-action nearly as well as the Browns; Nick Chubb is a BEAST, and Kitchens is...
Ok (see numerous previous posts) run/pass options are blocked like runs, see? The offensive line has no idea what decision the quarterback will make, and they just fire out and blast the defenders like it's a run...
...too deep sorry ok but see this Bengals defense is tacticly overmatched, and their offense physically overmatched.
Reverting to shallowness, I think Mayfield is already better than Dalton, Chubb already better than Mixon, the Browns OL better than Bengals OL, Njoku better, linebackers MASSIVELY better, secondary much better, current wide receivers better...
Going back to the first two paragaphs of this post, I think REALITY overwhelms Stockholm Syndrome:
If the Browns don't beat the Bengals tomorrow, I'll eat my lunch (and you can take that to the bank).
Wednesday, November 21, 2018
Cleveland Browns Poised to Stomp a Mudole in Bengals
Terrence Mitchell will be back just in time for the Carolina Panthers game! That's excellent news, because they're really going to need him!
The Panthers have an unusual offense, but this DJ Moore guy is starting to tear everybody up, and McCaffery lines up both in the slot and outside sometimes. You still do need two strong outside cornerbacks for that crew.
Prior to his injury, Terrence Mitchell had blossomed into one the best cornerbacks in the NFL. The Browns defense missed him.
Joe Scobert's return is also a big boost, as he's turned out to be above average in coverage.
The fantasy gurus say the Browns can't cover tight ends. Actually, that's no longer the case when Schobert is on the field.
I hope you guys know what I mean here: Joe doesn't man-cover anybody. He just drops back to an area that any tight end has to approach on any cross or slant, and then reacts to what he sees developing.
He can't run with or out-reach/jump these guys, but his ability to diagnose and react (some call it "instincts") is freaky, so he rarely takes a false step, and ends up where he needs to be just as the ball reaches the aspiring receiver.
If Joe were a little faster, he'd make a great free safety.
Anyway, the Panthers have this Greg Olsen dude who is just a huge PIA.
Joe Schobert will not have much fun here, because Olsen and McCaffery kinda tag-team strong safeties and coverage linebackers.
One can run you over, and the other can run circles around you.
With Mitchell and Ward on Funches and Moore, the Panthers will try to screw up Mister Schobert's neighborhood on passes.
Prior to this season, Cam Newton has been pretty inaccurate, but this season he's been more disciplined mechanically, and is actually hitting tight windows with great touch.
As Baker Mayfield says, "you can't stop a perfect pass". Schobert is 6' tall, slower than both these guys, and...well the Panthers will pick on him by air.
That will be the "chalk" talk on NFL Radio, but I think Gregg Williams will put Jamie Collins right in Olsen's face with orders to leverage him outside on passes.
Collins is a physical match for Olsen, and can run with him too. Jabrill Peppers can do Gregg's linebacker/safety stuff and "spy" Cam and McCaffery...
Jeez how did I get off on this tangent? That game is three weeks down the road!
Well, it's really the scariest game remaining on the schedule. That's the scariest, most talented team the Browns will play.
That's right: I'm looking past the Bungles...ok the Texans are scary too, but not as scary as the Panthers...
Ok ok have you checked out the Browns' post-Haley depth chart?
It lists Njoku and Fells as starting tight ends.
This is partly because both the Browns offensive tackles are vulnerable to edge-rushers, and also because Freddie Kitchens really wants to run the ball.
This depth chart matches up with Watt and Clowney. These two PIA's can't line up outside th...
Nevermind I'll get to that on game-week.
Vs the Bengals this sunday, Bengals left tackle Cordy Glenn is questionable, but even if he plays, so far so bad in pass pro. Advantage Garrett.
AJ Green probably shouldn't play, even if he can, because Williams will just glue Ward to him anyway.
The Bengals can definitely run the ball, and Mixon is a stud (also a dangerous receiver). The Bengals inside offensive line is pretty good.
Their tight end and both non-Green wide receivers are big-play threats from anywhere they get the ball (but aren't like Green deep because they're smaller).
Andy Dalton is an excellent quarterback. He is accurate, decisive, and can burn you with his feet. There is no "but" to this. Andy Dalton has nothing to do with why the Bengals keep sputtering in the playoffs.
...but Baker Mayfield is still better than the Red Rifle. NOW.
Really that doesn't matter, of course: I just think that the Browns' defense will play the majority of this game in the Bengals' backfield (without blitzing much)...
Ok they WILL blitze INSIDE more than usual so they can blow up handoffs to that PIA Mixon...but I digress again:
Offensively speaking, the Bengals defense hasn't lived up to even my expectations. The talent is there...
Marvin Lewis might contend for the most overrated Head Coach in the NFL, but he's a really good defensive coordinator, and his taking over his defense is concerning.
Still, he can't put more heat on quarterbacks without blitzing, and Mayfield is one of the best blitze-burners in the NFL already.
Now, this two-tight end Browns base offense also bucks the trend and jams up defensive coordinators.
They really have no choice but to field a base defense against this personnel grouping. If you think that's okay, you're wrong:
As I've repeated a few thousand times, for several years, the nickel defense has become the "base" defense for every team in the NFL.
Over 67% of the time, offenses have been fielding three "wide receivers", plus there are swiss army knife running backs coming out of the woodwork.
GMs have been building their defensive rosters based on this paradigm.
The Browns' two tight end base offense (with Darren Fells as the second tight end) really screws with that.
This is unmistakeably a "run" grouping (*Njoku is improving as an in-line blocker. Fells has inexplicably sucked until the last couple games, but is historically one of the best blocking tight ends in the NFL*)
...Anyhoo, Nick Chubb is huge here, because HE makes it WORK.
I told you about Chubb's freaky combine numbers 75 or so posts ago. Nick approximated or exceeded Saquon Barkley in everything except the 40.
A few of the REAL experts (including Bucky Brooks) felt that Chubb was a better NFL prospect than Barkley.
I'm not going there here, since obviously Barkley is just awesome (*I disageed with Bucky at the time*)...
But this is more of Freddie Kitchens maxing out his personnel:
The two tight ends mean smash-mouth. Chubb (more consistently than Barkley) can almost always get positive yardage, BUT (listen carefully):
If he gets to the second level vs a "run-stuffing" defense, it's OVER.
You have seen this. Vs a nickle defense, he'd probably get "caught" by one of those greyhounds, but vs a base defense? Get it?
More on Kitchens' two-tight end offense:
The only way enemy defenses can "get to" Mayfield is inside...vs Bitonio, Tretter, and Zeitler.
I'm very impressed by Freddie Kitchens so far, and am kinda shocked that nobody else is with me on that.
The Browns should OUT-COACH the Bungles this sunday...
...You don't get it yet. Stockholm Syndrome. Memorex Moronizm. There's only so much I can do.
The Panthers have an unusual offense, but this DJ Moore guy is starting to tear everybody up, and McCaffery lines up both in the slot and outside sometimes. You still do need two strong outside cornerbacks for that crew.
Prior to his injury, Terrence Mitchell had blossomed into one the best cornerbacks in the NFL. The Browns defense missed him.
Joe Scobert's return is also a big boost, as he's turned out to be above average in coverage.
The fantasy gurus say the Browns can't cover tight ends. Actually, that's no longer the case when Schobert is on the field.
I hope you guys know what I mean here: Joe doesn't man-cover anybody. He just drops back to an area that any tight end has to approach on any cross or slant, and then reacts to what he sees developing.
He can't run with or out-reach/jump these guys, but his ability to diagnose and react (some call it "instincts") is freaky, so he rarely takes a false step, and ends up where he needs to be just as the ball reaches the aspiring receiver.
If Joe were a little faster, he'd make a great free safety.
Anyway, the Panthers have this Greg Olsen dude who is just a huge PIA.
Joe Schobert will not have much fun here, because Olsen and McCaffery kinda tag-team strong safeties and coverage linebackers.
One can run you over, and the other can run circles around you.
With Mitchell and Ward on Funches and Moore, the Panthers will try to screw up Mister Schobert's neighborhood on passes.
Prior to this season, Cam Newton has been pretty inaccurate, but this season he's been more disciplined mechanically, and is actually hitting tight windows with great touch.
As Baker Mayfield says, "you can't stop a perfect pass". Schobert is 6' tall, slower than both these guys, and...well the Panthers will pick on him by air.
That will be the "chalk" talk on NFL Radio, but I think Gregg Williams will put Jamie Collins right in Olsen's face with orders to leverage him outside on passes.
Collins is a physical match for Olsen, and can run with him too. Jabrill Peppers can do Gregg's linebacker/safety stuff and "spy" Cam and McCaffery...
Jeez how did I get off on this tangent? That game is three weeks down the road!
Well, it's really the scariest game remaining on the schedule. That's the scariest, most talented team the Browns will play.
That's right: I'm looking past the Bungles...ok the Texans are scary too, but not as scary as the Panthers...
Ok ok have you checked out the Browns' post-Haley depth chart?
It lists Njoku and Fells as starting tight ends.
This is partly because both the Browns offensive tackles are vulnerable to edge-rushers, and also because Freddie Kitchens really wants to run the ball.
This depth chart matches up with Watt and Clowney. These two PIA's can't line up outside th...
Nevermind I'll get to that on game-week.
Vs the Bengals this sunday, Bengals left tackle Cordy Glenn is questionable, but even if he plays, so far so bad in pass pro. Advantage Garrett.
AJ Green probably shouldn't play, even if he can, because Williams will just glue Ward to him anyway.
The Bengals can definitely run the ball, and Mixon is a stud (also a dangerous receiver). The Bengals inside offensive line is pretty good.
Their tight end and both non-Green wide receivers are big-play threats from anywhere they get the ball (but aren't like Green deep because they're smaller).
Andy Dalton is an excellent quarterback. He is accurate, decisive, and can burn you with his feet. There is no "but" to this. Andy Dalton has nothing to do with why the Bengals keep sputtering in the playoffs.
...but Baker Mayfield is still better than the Red Rifle. NOW.
Really that doesn't matter, of course: I just think that the Browns' defense will play the majority of this game in the Bengals' backfield (without blitzing much)...
Ok they WILL blitze INSIDE more than usual so they can blow up handoffs to that PIA Mixon...but I digress again:
Offensively speaking, the Bengals defense hasn't lived up to even my expectations. The talent is there...
Marvin Lewis might contend for the most overrated Head Coach in the NFL, but he's a really good defensive coordinator, and his taking over his defense is concerning.
Still, he can't put more heat on quarterbacks without blitzing, and Mayfield is one of the best blitze-burners in the NFL already.
Now, this two-tight end Browns base offense also bucks the trend and jams up defensive coordinators.
They really have no choice but to field a base defense against this personnel grouping. If you think that's okay, you're wrong:
As I've repeated a few thousand times, for several years, the nickel defense has become the "base" defense for every team in the NFL.
Over 67% of the time, offenses have been fielding three "wide receivers", plus there are swiss army knife running backs coming out of the woodwork.
GMs have been building their defensive rosters based on this paradigm.
The Browns' two tight end base offense (with Darren Fells as the second tight end) really screws with that.
This is unmistakeably a "run" grouping (*Njoku is improving as an in-line blocker. Fells has inexplicably sucked until the last couple games, but is historically one of the best blocking tight ends in the NFL*)
...Anyhoo, Nick Chubb is huge here, because HE makes it WORK.
I told you about Chubb's freaky combine numbers 75 or so posts ago. Nick approximated or exceeded Saquon Barkley in everything except the 40.
A few of the REAL experts (including Bucky Brooks) felt that Chubb was a better NFL prospect than Barkley.
I'm not going there here, since obviously Barkley is just awesome (*I disageed with Bucky at the time*)...
But this is more of Freddie Kitchens maxing out his personnel:
The two tight ends mean smash-mouth. Chubb (more consistently than Barkley) can almost always get positive yardage, BUT (listen carefully):
If he gets to the second level vs a "run-stuffing" defense, it's OVER.
You have seen this. Vs a nickle defense, he'd probably get "caught" by one of those greyhounds, but vs a base defense? Get it?
More on Kitchens' two-tight end offense:
The only way enemy defenses can "get to" Mayfield is inside...vs Bitonio, Tretter, and Zeitler.
I'm very impressed by Freddie Kitchens so far, and am kinda shocked that nobody else is with me on that.
The Browns should OUT-COACH the Bungles this sunday...
...You don't get it yet. Stockholm Syndrome. Memorex Moronizm. There's only so much I can do.
Tuesday, November 20, 2018
Note to Five NFL Teams: Gregg Williams, Freddie Kitchens, and Baker Mayfield are gonna Stomp You
I like this article by WFNY's Joe Gerberry. Joe explains why he thinks the Browns will win the rest of their games.
It's tough for even me to feel as confident as Joe is about beating the Panthers and Texans, but he does make a pretty good case, as he goes game-by-game.
I had to offer Joe's article up as a counterpoint to Stockholm Syndrome sufferers like Terry Pluto. (See last post: Terry finds the notion that this team can win four more games all but inconceivable).
Joe seems overly optimistic to me, but between the Terry and him, he's the more realistic one.
Many of you still need deprogramming:
-Slap- the Browns have a real quarterback AND a stud running back now. NOW -slap- snap out of it! Put the fkng quarterback jersey away that was then, this is now!
Here are the Pro Bowl calibre players on this team (gotta leave Baker out what with Brees/Goff/Mahomes/Ben/Rodgers etc):
Landry Bitonio Zeitler Chubb...Garrett Ward Schobert Randall. EIGHT of them -slap- not counting Baker Mayfield! How the fk many elite players do you think it takes!?!
Then there's the "potential" and "swiss army knife" guys like Duke, Callaway, Ratley, Perriman, Njoku, Ogunjobi, Avery, Peppers...
I even left out Jamie Collins!!!
Nick Chubb is already catching passes (two per game in the last two games). -Slap-slap- Freddie Kitchens isn't Todd Haley and Mayfield isn't Sam Darnold DO YOU UNDERSTAND!?!
Now...tell me why you think the Browns can't win four more games.
...No, that's mystical bullshit. They didn't build the new stadium on an Indian burial ground. Give me rational reasons.
That's bullshit too, because they've all stopped dropping passes since Williams and Kitchens took over, and two of them are rookies. Plus Higgins is back now, and Duke is being used as a receiver. You're a Memorex Moron, stuck on season-long stats and oblivious to current trends -slap-
I know, I get it: Twenty or something years of losing...you've been conditioned to expect failure, but that's your reptilian or "hind"-brain talking, Terry.
Mayfield and eight Pro Bowl talents (and Collins): THAT is reality NOW. NOW. Not next year.
Do you see it? Are you awake now? Good. Okay, I'm going to untie you...
The 2018 Browns aren't ready for the Chiefs or Rams yet, obviously. I never said that, G.
But they are probably the second-best team in the AFC North. NOW. And they can toe the line with the Texans, Panthers, and Broncos too.
Most of the real experts on NFL Radio get this now, even if Terry and co don't.
Everything circles back to Baker Mayfield:
He's the real deal.
I have a lot more respect for Andy Dalton than most Bengals fans have, but Mayfield is already better than the Red Rifle, and anybody in Baltimore.
He IS. NOW. Baker Mayfield isn't a project DO YOU U N D E R S T A N D?
He's not better than Big Ben yet.
Speaking of Terry Pluto, he obviously read my last post and wrote another good article in response.
Terry compares the AFC North quarterbacks (like I just did), and came to similar conclusions, except:
1: Terry thinks that Mayfield will be better than Andy Dalton, but (of course) isn't yet.
WRONG.
2: Terry seems to think that Big Ben will remain the best quarterback in the AFC North until he retires.
WRONG AGAIN:
See the Stockholm Syndrome here?
Okay, we gotta give Big Ben his props, sure. But Terry Pluto seems to think that Baker Mayfield can't match or exceed him anytime soon.
Why tf not, especially as Ben's skills inevitably diminish? The premise is irrational.
Stockholm Syndrome again.
A bunch of Browns' players weighed in on Hue Jackson (now back with the Bengals), and what damage his inside knowlege might do when his new team plays the Browns.
First, they all love him.
As for his value as an intelligence asset, it aint much. The Browns will have to change the "language" Baker Mayfield speaks, since the Bengals obviously have their "code book" now--but that's about it.
I love how the Browns players and Coaches are talking about this:
It's a Division game. They know us. We know them. We have to punch them in the mouth and beat them physically.
Music to my eyes.
Why tf is this Condi Rice stuff still getting regurgitated? The guys on NFL Radio thought it was funny at first, but are done laughing at it now.
See my recent post on Idiocracy.
...my work here is done okbye
This just in: USA Today gets it too! -slap-
It's tough for even me to feel as confident as Joe is about beating the Panthers and Texans, but he does make a pretty good case, as he goes game-by-game.
I had to offer Joe's article up as a counterpoint to Stockholm Syndrome sufferers like Terry Pluto. (See last post: Terry finds the notion that this team can win four more games all but inconceivable).
Joe seems overly optimistic to me, but between the Terry and him, he's the more realistic one.
Many of you still need deprogramming:
-Slap- the Browns have a real quarterback AND a stud running back now. NOW -slap- snap out of it! Put the fkng quarterback jersey away that was then, this is now!
Here are the Pro Bowl calibre players on this team (gotta leave Baker out what with Brees/Goff/Mahomes/Ben/Rodgers etc):
Landry Bitonio Zeitler Chubb...Garrett Ward Schobert Randall. EIGHT of them -slap- not counting Baker Mayfield! How the fk many elite players do you think it takes!?!
Then there's the "potential" and "swiss army knife" guys like Duke, Callaway, Ratley, Perriman, Njoku, Ogunjobi, Avery, Peppers...
I even left out Jamie Collins!!!
Nick Chubb is already catching passes (two per game in the last two games). -Slap-slap- Freddie Kitchens isn't Todd Haley and Mayfield isn't Sam Darnold DO YOU UNDERSTAND!?!
Now...tell me why you think the Browns can't win four more games.
...No, that's mystical bullshit. They didn't build the new stadium on an Indian burial ground. Give me rational reasons.
That's bullshit too, because they've all stopped dropping passes since Williams and Kitchens took over, and two of them are rookies. Plus Higgins is back now, and Duke is being used as a receiver. You're a Memorex Moron, stuck on season-long stats and oblivious to current trends -slap-
I know, I get it: Twenty or something years of losing...you've been conditioned to expect failure, but that's your reptilian or "hind"-brain talking, Terry.
Mayfield and eight Pro Bowl talents (and Collins): THAT is reality NOW. NOW. Not next year.
Do you see it? Are you awake now? Good. Okay, I'm going to untie you...
The 2018 Browns aren't ready for the Chiefs or Rams yet, obviously. I never said that, G.
But they are probably the second-best team in the AFC North. NOW. And they can toe the line with the Texans, Panthers, and Broncos too.
Most of the real experts on NFL Radio get this now, even if Terry and co don't.
Everything circles back to Baker Mayfield:
He's the real deal.
I have a lot more respect for Andy Dalton than most Bengals fans have, but Mayfield is already better than the Red Rifle, and anybody in Baltimore.
He IS. NOW. Baker Mayfield isn't a project DO YOU U N D E R S T A N D?
He's not better than Big Ben yet.
Speaking of Terry Pluto, he obviously read my last post and wrote another good article in response.
Terry compares the AFC North quarterbacks (like I just did), and came to similar conclusions, except:
1: Terry thinks that Mayfield will be better than Andy Dalton, but (of course) isn't yet.
WRONG.
2: Terry seems to think that Big Ben will remain the best quarterback in the AFC North until he retires.
WRONG AGAIN:
See the Stockholm Syndrome here?
Okay, we gotta give Big Ben his props, sure. But Terry Pluto seems to think that Baker Mayfield can't match or exceed him anytime soon.
Why tf not, especially as Ben's skills inevitably diminish? The premise is irrational.
Stockholm Syndrome again.
A bunch of Browns' players weighed in on Hue Jackson (now back with the Bengals), and what damage his inside knowlege might do when his new team plays the Browns.
First, they all love him.
As for his value as an intelligence asset, it aint much. The Browns will have to change the "language" Baker Mayfield speaks, since the Bengals obviously have their "code book" now--but that's about it.
I love how the Browns players and Coaches are talking about this:
It's a Division game. They know us. We know them. We have to punch them in the mouth and beat them physically.
Music to my eyes.
Why tf is this Condi Rice stuff still getting regurgitated? The guys on NFL Radio thought it was funny at first, but are done laughing at it now.
See my recent post on Idiocracy.
...my work here is done okbye
This just in: USA Today gets it too! -slap-
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